But the government’s strategy has been more sophisticated than I anticipated in 1999. Crack was so apocalyptic that the government seems to have been following a multimodal drug war strategy that has been pretty effective:
– Come down extremely hard with imprisonment on drugs that make people more violent, like cocaine.
– Err on the side of downer drugs that make people more passive, like heroin
– Err on the side of abuse of legal drugs, like prescription painkillers
– Err on the side of a multiplicity of drugs so that we don’t get back to a situation like crack cocaine in 1990 or powder cocaine in 1980.
COMMENTS:
* “Well, of course, civil rights did engender a crime wave, a giant one that did horrific damage to much of urban America…”
For something to catch on, it needs a term, a word, or a meme.
The phenom should be called ‘rampage’ or some such thing.
A word that will catch on. Once it catches on, it becomes reality.
It’s like the term ‘Jim Crow’ sums up so much about US history.
* One thing my relatives in law enforcement always stress is that the “Ferguson effect” on law enforcement officers doesn’t have to be very large to produce very big changes. It’s not like the cops are just abandoning the streets — it’s just little stuff here and there, giving a pass to some random knucklehead they would have stopped and hassled a few years ago. Cops catch a surprising number of scary, dangerous guys just by stopping sketchy-looking goofballs who are causing some minor disturbance but otherwise not threatening anyone, because (as the “racist” Broken Windows theory predicts) people who have trouble following the rules in big things also have trouble following the rules about little things. Thus, a lot of officers all easing up at the same time can have a huge effect, even if each individual officer is only making the smallest of changes.
* The three cities that had seen the biggest increases in murder “all seem to have falling populations, higher poverty rates, and higher unemployment than the national average,” the Brennan Center report concluded. “Economic deterioration of these cities could be a contributor to murder increases.”
Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri St Louis and the chair of a National Academy of Sciences roundtable on crime trends, said the Brennan Center’s focus on the economic roots of violence was not enough to explain “why homicide increased as much as it did in these cities in a one-year period”.
With liberals, the model has to be twisted to meet the narrative. Here it’s economic deterioration and in an earlier study gun ownership rates where a key factor behind homicide. The narrative must be protected.
Now watch how ThinkProgress lied by omission:
The largest study of gun violence in the United States, released Thursday afternoon, confirms a point that should be obvious: widespread American gun ownership is fueling America’s gun violence epidemic.
The study, by Professor Michael Siegel at Boston University and two coauthors, has been peer-reviewed and is forthcoming in the American Journal of Public Health. Siegel and his colleagues compiled data on firearm homicides from all 50 states from 1981-2010, the longest stretch of time ever studied in this fashion, and set about seeing whether they could find any relationship between changes in gun ownership and murder using guns over time.
Here’s the study. Now, I dare you to click on Table 3 and Table 2 to see which factor is the single largest predictor of firearm homicide.
So back to the question at hand. What might be the demographic effects on a city arising from a falling population? Might that increase the proportion of the black population? Or are blacks the first to flee thus leaving whites in the city and increasing the proportion of white? Look at the influence of income inequality from the Seigel study and compare to the influence of the percent of city which is black. The Brennan Center turns its focus on “economic deterioration” but I’m not sure how they instrumentalize that variable. A good proxy would be an increasing gini index measure but this is nowhere near as powerful as race, especially when we measure in terms of Standard Deviation and thus capture the effect of concentration of black social dysfunction.
The “Ferguson Effect” is going to have a greater impact in cities with high black concentrations than in cities with low black representation, so police in two cities with different demographics, acting on the same reluctance to be the next star of a viral video are going to end up with different effect size outcomes in terms of homicides. High concentrations of blacks need a stronger hand to keep them in line and this pays off, as pre-Ferguson homicide rates indicate.
The social factor conditions listed in the quote create almost a perfect storm for changing the demographics of a city towards one where black concentrations are going to be the factor which explodes the homicide rate and it is precisely these conditions which require a heavy handed police presence to keep a lid on things.
A good test for the question of whether economic deterioration is the key factor behind the rise in homicides is to find white communities which have suffered the same degree of economic deterioration as these cities which have experienced a rise in post-Ferguson homicides and see if there has been a commensurate rise in their homicide rate for it seems the police all across the nation are pulling back due to the scape-goating which is being focused on them.
* Why are crime and murder rates even higher in Jamaica which has almost no white population?
* How much of the post-crack decline in violence is due to the selective pressure of widespread violence that took thousands of criminally prone and violent people out of circulation? Could there be a similar effect after a few years of elevated violence in the cities mentioned above?
There are occasionally innocent bystanders involved, but in my experience most of the violence is pretty targeted, and it’s usually active rivals not some person who is only tangentially involved in drug or gang activity.
* My guess is that the early 1990s peak of bad guys shooting bad guys and bad guys going to prison for shooting bad guys contributed a lot to the late 1990s decline in crime. It also instructed the next generation that being a crack dealer wasn’t as great as it sounded in NWA tracks.
* Why should White cops risk their lives (and their families’ lives in the event of a media shitstorm) to prevent black criminals from killing other black criminals?
* What is the problem with criminals shooting other criminals? I am fine with the murder rate being very high in black areas so long as they stay out of my area. If they do not want the dwindling police resources in my city to stop them from murdering each other, I see no problem with that. I just wish we would airdrop birth control and set up more Planned Parenthood clinics. And this brings me to my favorite argument with progressive types.
I invariably get into the HBD theories and how African Americans on average have lower IQs, higher propensity for crime, lower time preference, etc. At some point a few of the people I argue with have came back at me with something to this affect: “So what if you are correct and all these things about blacks are true? What do you suggest we do about it? What is your solution?”
To that I replied “Nothing. There is nothing we as a society can do to change these genetic realities short of eugenics. However, on a personal level, you already build every aspect of your lives as if you believe these facts. You went to high end colleges with few blacks. You work in a company almost completely devoid of blacks. You spend enormous amounts of money to live in areas away from African Americans. Similarly, you will never send your kids to school with many African Americans. And lastly, you chronically avoid African American areas after dark or in contexts that would make you unsafe.
Essentially your lives are lived exclusively away from blacks. This is due to innate differences in intellectual capabilities and out of fear for your safety. That is reality you have chosen and your actions prove you believe what I say whether you want to admit it or not.”
* Sadly, they are not actually looking for the real causes.
If they were they would list these:
1. If some racial group(s) contain a greater proportion of individuals with a (genetic) propensity for violence,
2. And you signal that you will tolerate violence from them,
3. Lethal violence goes up.
* The First 48 should be required viewing for every American. It is not only real life-and-death human drama, but portrays law enforcement and crime in a way that news and analysis just cannot.
Among the many tidbits from that show (in no particular order):
– people will murder over tiny insults
– almost everything in a major city is caught on camera
– criminals do stupid things like attempt to sell back registered cell phones stolen from murder victims
– when criminals are caught reactions vary, but many view being sent to prison for life with the same amount of gravity that I view going for a routine dental exam
– white-on-white homicide is rarer but exactly what stereotypes would predict (domestic disputes and quarrels over women fueled by alcohol)
* The US Virgin Islands has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. High rates of violence are common in Sub-Saharan African descended populations all over the world. In contrast consider Chinese populations in places like Indonesia where the Chinese populations have been subject to often horrific persecution. Nevertheless the Chinese populations of Indonesia have low levels of violence.
* The Ferguson Effect is far more valid in the arena of the black undertow being agitated than it is in the level of law enforcement. What it means is that more cops and more enforcement won’t solve much, what it will take is for the natives to get restful. Or at the very least, for the (((media))) not to amp them up.
Crime rates did increase in St. Louis even before August 9, 2014, and it went up in 2013. But that does not disprove the Ferguson Effect, in fact, it proves it. It’s just that it shows that the Ferguson Effect deserves a different name. The reason for the increases in 2013 and 2014 had to do with another late teens young black man who was news about that time, and he’s suddenly news again: Trayvon Martin. The media whipped up Trayvonmania to help re-elect Obama, and that happened, and a combination of both leading into the start of 2013 was a cue to the undertow that they could start raging out. Trayvon’s father, incidentally, is a native of East St. Louis.
* I have to give Richard Rosenfeld credit for publicly changing his mind, since he’s going against the narrative and thus endangering future prospects for grants, employment, etc. He has some integrity and we see that less and less, especially at the highest level of government. I’m sure our first black president knows that a lot of the things he says about crime and policing are untrue, but he says them anyway. It would be great if he would take a break from chastising the police and mention that blacks should stop committing so much crime, should stop resisting arrest, and should stop bitching about the shooting of Michael Brown, who only got what was coming to him.
* During a recent appearance on the O’Reilly show Patrick Lynch, head of the NYPD Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association (“PBA”) admitted that the adverse publicity that has resulted from events such as Ferguson has had what amounts to a chilling effect on the ability of his people to do their job. Is there any surprise that the criminal element in these neighborhoods has become emboldened.
By the way, I notice that Detroit is not among the top ten cities with the largest percentage increase in homicides. This suggests that Detroit has either suddenly became peaceful or that the crime statisticians have simply thrown in the towel and don’t even bother keeping statistics anymore.
* We’ve always had various studies throughout the years to put blacks under the microscope to see why they are the way they are. It’s usually whites trying out their pet theories such as them suffering from collective lead poisoning and so on. Whenever the occasional black gets consulted it’s usually also standard fare: white society is to blame and send mo’ money. A long time ago an old timer explained it to me this way: ‘they is what they is, they does what they does’. Well, it’s true, this is what they are and this is what they do. It’s just that whites don’t care for that, tribal warfare doesn’t mesh well with a modern society so they’re always agonizing over how to turn blacks into carbon-copy whites. Can’t be done.
* “The people dying are almost entirely black and Latino men,” he said.”
Your blog is 99% despair/rage porn, Steve, but once in awhile you share some good news with us. Thanks.
* I know you’re being facetious but they’re really on the horns of a dilemma: a) accept aggressive policing that will make life safer for the vast majority of blacks and save measurable young black lives, while accepting that from time to time a black – usually in the commission of a felony – will be killed by (probably white) police; or, b) persist in exposing police to infamy for properly doing their jobs. The Shaun King best of both worlds solution is unobtainable because he wants to roast police for doing their jobs when there is a bad outcome arising from black criminality. White cops (or cops of any race for that matter) offering their lives up for the sake of racial harmony in deadly conflicts with violent black criminals is probably not in the cards either.
The reality is that the toothpaste can’t be put back in the tube at this point because the BLM agitation and crucifixion of good cops doing their jobs is coming from the Eye of Soros, and it will not abate regardless of whether it is responsible for the deaths of black men because it is politically useful.
* I think we ought to go one step further and just segregate the entire white population. Make them live in their own towns, attend their own schools and work at their own businesses.
* Yeah, that’ll teach’em. Make them live with only other white people. See how they like that. No asians, no blacks, no browns. Only white folks. None of that vibrant diversity that makes the rest of the USA so enjoyable and prosperous. Truly this punishment fits the crime.
* I’m of the opinion that the 1994 Violent Crime Act was largely responsible for the decrease in violent crime – Federalizing crimes and providing mandatory minimums (30 year prison terms in Federal Court where they’re served) meant taking criminal All Stars off the field for the remainder of their careers. Also, the Federal penitentiary system allows you to house a NYC armed crack dealer in Terre Haute, Indiana where he can’t easily run his business from within the jail. That probably also had a similar effect that concerted law enforcement pressure had on organized crime – the more able and cunning criminals having been caught and incarcerated, their successors usually dip in quality making them easier to catch. You do this enough and the criminal organization that remains is a shadow of its former self. In a few generations, instead of controlling Union pension funds and skimming from casinos, they’re stealing box trucks full of frozen turkeys and women’s polyester sweatpants.
Charts of violent crime clearly show a peak in and around 1994 and significant reduction thereafter.
* And why is all black Haiti such a total basket case? It has virtually zero whites.
Why do blacks in Canada and England have the same high rates of violence and crime when there was no history of slavery or segregation in either country?
* Lawrence Auster once commented that if liberals/progressives were to write their own holy book, phrases like “And God said….” or “It is written that….” would be replaced with “Studies show…..”
* It’s not just violent crime that’s rising.
California Ballot Measure Blamed for Shoplifting Jump
“It’s just pretty much open season,” Lutz said. “They’ll pick the $800 unit and just grab it and run out the door.”
Anything below $950 keeps the crime a misdemeanor — and likely means the thieves face no pursuit and no punishment, say retailers and law enforcement officials. Large retailers including Safeway, Target, Rite Aid and CVS pharmacies say shoplifting increased at least 15 percent, and in some cases, doubled since voters approved Proposition 47 and ended the possibility of charging shoplifting as a felony with the potential for a prison sentence.
If a paternity test proves this Dindu Nuffin is Prince’s biological son, it certainly adds fuel to the theory that the vast majority of affluent Blacks have family members who are part of the Black underclass, just like in The Fresh Prince Of Bel Air. Even Hussein Obama has family members who are part of the Black underclass.
Not too many affluent Blacks come from 100 percent blue blood wealthy families.
On the flip side most affluent Whites do not have family members who are part of the White underclass. Not as many Fresh Prince Of Bel Air cases among affluent Whites.
* Illustrious gatekeepers of our reigning narrative – those socially pure, spiritually corrosive lies we’re supposed to pretend to believe – take another hit. Media and academia really needed a winner here, and – POWEE! They certainly, certainly could have used a good, old fashioned See, Conservatives Really ARE Nazis study this year of all others. Now… Another Righteous Spin fail. One more denial dependent on us covering our ears and singing la-la and the whole, shabby empire of certitude will crumble to dust, be eaten by oceans.
* How does Orange County remain a Republican stronghold when Whites are the Minority?
It is slightly democratic voting for president, so not really a stronghold. Half the hispanics are not citizens and the half that are citizens are too young to vote or not registered or not interested.
Asians vote at very low rates too, and when they do OC Asians are fairly Republican since they assimilate toward the local elite, which in OC is white Republican. A pretty high percentage of OC Asians are Christians from Vietnam, Korea, or Philippines.
You combine all these factors and OC’s 44% white population are probably 75% of actual voters, or even 80% in off-elections.
For local offices, suburban so-cal whites block vote for Republicans when the dems nominate a non-white. Most of the white out-migration has been in the bottom half of the economic spectrum, and partially replaced with well educated whites. So you end up with a white core that votes in very high numbers. I am a permanent vote by mail voter so I never miss an election.
* A classic example of hispanics in California not voting is that the Compton mayor and city counsel are still 100% black, even though the city as of 2010 65% hispanic, 32% black, and 1% white. By now it could easily be 70% hispanic.
* I go out of my way to not reveal where public figures live precisely. For example, I rewrote a posting about news stories about Carlos Slim putting his New York mansion up for sale for $80 million to reveal only that it was in Manhattan, even though it’s one of the most prominent addresses in America.
My thinking on this goes back to John Lennon’s assumption that it was safe in the late 1970s to mention in interviews that he lived in The Dakota.
* The biggest single year jump in homicides in recent decades before 2015 was 12% in 1990 at the peak of the Crack Wars, so 16+% in 2015 is huge (although that’s only being measured in 56 big cities, so nationally it’s probably a little lower).
* A friend works at Old Navy and says pretty much what this article says. Thieves make a move on her store every freaking day. Jump and run, hide it in the bag, pull it off the rack and say you’re returning something without a receipt, conceal it in the bottom of a stroller. The employees are not allowed to confront and the cops are called constantly.
I just went to a neighborhood meeting about some local crap and I have to say I feel sorry for the officers. They have to deal with the same criminals and bad actors over and over again. Then, the homeowners are bitching at them to get rid of these people. Really they’re caught in a vice squeeze by the liberals in charge and the citizens who want good neighborhoods.
Question: are there any people out there who want law and order as well as welfare handouts? I don’t mean the old folks entitlements. I mean the food stamps, medicaid, cheap housing, WIC, EITC, and such. I understand why people want free stuff, but I don’t get why they want criminals roaming around and crappy neighborhoods. Maybe they’re the same group of people.