Category Archives: China

The Jurisdictional Wars: Alliance Theory and the Battle for China’s Master Institutions

China’s high-status actors do not compete for power by openly saying they want it. They compete by deploying moral languages that frame their authority as essential to national survival, technological supremacy, social stability, and civilizational rejuvenation. This is the central … Continue reading

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China Hasn’t Been In A Hot War Since 1979

The U.S. has a deep reservoir of officers who understand how to manage the friction of war, which Clausewitz identifies as the force that makes the simple difficult. This means managing the psychological toll of casualties and the breakdown of … Continue reading

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The New Cold War With China

ChatGPT says: Alliance Theory says a large share of “new Cold War with China” talk is not neutral analysis. It is status production by an alliance that needs a big enemy to justify its own importance. Not all of it. … Continue reading

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Decoding the Moves of China’s Dictator Xi Jinping

ChatGPT says: Xi Jinping is not mainly a tyrant or an ideologue. He is a coalition manager who concluded that the ruling alliance was rotting from the inside. China is governed by a single ruling coalition. Chinese Communist Party. Inside … Continue reading

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Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

Gemini: Based on the geopolitical and economic landscape as of early 2026, the survival of the Iranian clerical establishment (often referred to as the “mullah regime”) appears increasingly precarious. While the regime retains a monopoly on violence that likely ensures … Continue reading

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Elites Are Sobering Up About Free Trade

Robin Harding’s argument is blunt and mostly right. China is not behaving like a normal trading partner that expects reciprocity over time. It is behaving like a civilization state executing a long plan for autonomy and dominance. Trade, in Beijing’s … Continue reading

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Defending the Pacific: George Friedman on Australia, Japan, and the Coalition Against China

George Friedman: One of the things that Trump has done—he hasn’t broken relations with Australia, Japan, or South Korea—but he’s looking at their economic development and saying, “Okay, you’re no longer solely dependent on the United States. Will we come … Continue reading

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The News Wants Us To Believe China Won The Trade War With America

I don’t have an opinion on that. I do think Trump is heading us in the right direction. Media narrative: “China won the trade war with Trump” What the evidence shows The 2018 trade war delivered limited headline gains for … Continue reading

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Why So Many Members of “The Blob” Want a New Cold War with China

David Feith at the Hudson Institute writes this Op/Ed in the Washington Post: To outcompete China, America must believe in itself again America’s new era of great-power rivalry demands strength and clarity — not exhaustion and doubt. …President Donald Trump … Continue reading

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Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them (2006)

International Relations professor John Mueller wrote in this important book (and here is his 2025 paper, Military Policy Toward China: The Case Against Overreaction): * The number of people worldwide who die as a result of international terrorism is generally … Continue reading

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