I don’t have an opinion on that. I do think Trump is heading us in the right direction.

Media narrative: “China won the trade war with Trump”

What the evidence shows

1. The 2018 trade war delivered limited headline gains for the U.S. on jobs and the overall deficit, per mainstream analyses. Council on Foreign Relations
2. China’s export engine proved resilient and diversified markets despite tariffs. arXiv working paper
3. Framing effects matter. Comparative content analyses show U.S. and Chinese outlets told different “winner” stories. Academic framing study

Why “China won” is an oversimplification

• Trade wars produce diffuse costs and mixed outcomes across sectors.
• China took damage too, while juggling growth, real estate stress, debt, and demographics.
• Victory language often reflects editorial framing more than clear endpoints. Study
• The contest has shifted into tech controls, supply chains, and export restrictions rather than ended. Reuters

What the media might be doing

• Favoring dramatic clarity over messy reality.
• Selecting deficit and jobs datapoints that imply a scoreboard.
• Underplaying internal costs on both sides.
• Amplifying official messaging campaigns. Washington Post

Bottom line

Too early and too binary to declare a definitive winner. China avoided a crushing defeat and kept leverage. The U.S. did not achieve transformational aims. The fight migrated into tech, investment, and standards where outcomes remain unsettled.

Further reading

• Amid Trump’s trade war, China launches a PR blitz
• Le Monde on Xi’s strengthened position
• Guardian roundup on tariffs and claims

How Trump changed U.S.–China relations since taking office on Jan. 20, 2025

Key changes

1. Tariffs and trade pressure restored
   Expansive tariff use tied to national emergency rationales and synthetic opioids. Backgrounder Parallel talks dangled tariff relief for concrete Chinese moves like farm purchases or resource access. PBS NewsHour
2. Tech, supply chain, and investment screening elevated
   Export controls and inbound investment limits expanded as core tools in the competition. Sanctions overview
3. Transactional bilateralism over coalitions
   Emphasis on direct deals and threats rather than allied frameworks. China Briefing analysis
4. No structural grand bargain
   Longstanding issues like IP protection and state industrial policy remain unresolved. CFR

What this means

• Policy centers on geoeconomic rivalry across trade, tech, and capital flows.
• Higher regulatory volatility for firms tied to China-facing supply chains and markets.
• Windows for tactical détente exist where Beijing seeks targeted relief.
• Expect rapid shifts that raise legal and business risk.

Bottom line

The relationship is reframed around comprehensive competition rather than narrow trade imbalances. Tools include tariffs, controls, and case-by-case deals. Core structural frictions are intact, so the outlook stays uncertain.

Recent coverage

• White House eased China tariffs after warnings of harm
• Temporary lull after Trump–Xi meeting
• FT on an extended truce framework