Luke Ford

The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 for reasons that had little to do with weapons of mass destruction. The weapons argument was a tool of mobilization, a pretext chosen because it could unite a domestic coalition, satisfy the requirements of international law, and create a sense of urgency. The real goal was to use Iraq as a lever to remake the Middle East in American interests, installing a friendly government in Baghdad that would shift the regional balance of power, undermine hostile regimes in Tehran and Damascus, and secure long-term military basing in the heart of the Arab world. Elites knew this. The question worth asking is not whether the stated reason was true, but why the gap between the stated reason and the real one matters so little to those who make these decisions, and so much to those who suffer them.
Carl Schmitt argued that the true sovereign is he who decides on the exception. After September 11, the Bush administration declared a permanent emergency, and that declaration gave the executive branch the authority to suspend the normal rules of war, law, and political debate. Iraq became the theater where this sovereign power played out in its most visible form. By identifying Saddam Hussein as an absolute enemy, the administration created the moral and legal climate in which dissent looked like betrayal. This is Schmitt’s friend/enemy distinction working at full force. A political community does not form around shared values alone. It forms around a shared enemy. The invasion was not just a military act. It was a sovereign assertion that American interests stood above the established international order, and that the emergency justified the exception.
The domestic coalition that supported the war operated by a different logic, one that David Pinsof’s alliance theory describes well. Political coalitions do not hold together because their members believe the same facts. They hold together because their members need to signal loyalty to the same group. Once the Iraq War became a defining marker of a specific political identity, abandoning it meant abandoning the team. When the weapons did not appear, the people who had supported the invasion faced a choice between admitting a mistake and losing status within their coalition, or doubling down and maintaining their standing. Most chose to double down. The truth of the intelligence was secondary to the social necessity of standing with one’s own side. The war became a test of who was in and who was out, which made the actual conditions in Iraq almost irrelevant to the domestic political struggle.
This is why the moral language around the war grew louder even as the evidence for it collapsed. By framing the invasion as a mission to spread democracy and end tyranny, the pro-war alliance created what Pinsof would call a sacred cause. You do not question a sacred cause with facts. You defend it with more moral language. The “real” reason for the invasion, remaking the Middle East, gave the elite a more durable intellectual fallback when the weapons story failed. The moral rhetoric kept the broader coalition intact. These two registers of justification served different audiences and different functions, and the people managing the war understood the difference.
What they did not understand was Iraq. American planners approached the country with what the philosopher Charles Taylor calls the buffered self, a secular, modern identity that treats the individual as a self-contained agent defined by reason and internal choice. To a buffered mind, political order is a set of neutral techniques. Write a constitution. Hold an election. Remove the dictator. The assumption was that once the pressure of Saddam’s regime lifted, Iraqis would default to a universal, rational interest in liberal democracy, because that is what any reasonable person would want. They treated the Iraqi state as a machine that needed new management.
The reality on the ground reflected something Taylor calls the porous self, where the boundary between the individual and the world is thin. People are embedded in a social and spiritual landscape where ancestors, religious authorities, and divine will exert direct influence on daily life. When the occupation dismantled the Ba’athist state, it did not reveal a hidden liberal society waiting to emerge. It collapsed the structures that provided order in a porous world, and people retreated into the older, more reliable protections of tribe and sect. A mosque is not a private place of worship in this framework. It is a source of communal identity and political authority. An insult to a religious site is not an offense to someone’s feelings. It is an attack on the community’s cosmic order. The planners could not see this because their own mental framework had no category for it.
Stephen Turner’s concept of tacit knowledge explains why this blindness was so durable. Tacit knowledge is the understanding you gain only through immersion, the feel for a situation that cannot be put in a briefing or captured in a spreadsheet. The planners in Washington operated on explicit knowledge, maps, census data, political theory, organizational charts. The soldiers in Fallujah and Baghdad absorbed something different. They learned which sheikh actually held power, what a specific gesture meant in a specific neighborhood, how a single decision could ripple through a network of kin and faith in ways that no policy document could predict. This knowledge was nearly impossible to communicate upward. When a colonel tried to explain that a particular policy was destabilizing the local order, it sounded like an anecdote to a Washington expert looking at a metrics dashboard. The expert dismissed it as a failure to see the big picture. The colonel knew the big picture was built on sand.
The gap between these two kinds of knowledge is where the occupation broke down. The planners believed their models were a map of the world. They were only a map of the planners’ own assumptions. When the theories did not produce the expected results, the experts blamed the Iraqis for not following the script rather than questioning their own lack of understanding. You cannot replace a culture’s underlying logic with expert systems imported from outside. The people you are trying to remake have a logic of their own, and it will assert itself.
When the war became undeniably catastrophic, American society needed a way to absorb the failure without permanently damaging its sense of itself. Jeffrey Alexander’s theory of cultural sociology describes this process as a purification ritual. Societies respond to a polluted event not by reckoning with it fully, but by isolating the contamination, assigning it to specific individuals or procedural errors, and then symbolically cleansing the community so it can move forward. The Iraq War was handled this way. The failure was attributed to bad intelligence, to Donald Rumsfeld’s arrogance, to Paul Bremer’s disbanding of the Iraqi army, to Ahmad Chalabi’s manipulation of credulous reporters. These were real errors. But by focusing on them, the broader American mission, the idea that the United States had both the right and the capacity to remake foreign societies, remained untouched. The nation learned a lesson. It did not change a premise.
The election of Barack Obama served as the central purification ritual. His rhetoric framed the war as a dumb war, a distraction, a failure of the previous administration. This allowed the country to symbolically wash its hands of the conflict by choosing someone who had opposed it. It did not mean a withdrawal from intervention. It meant a psychological reset. The country could re-engage with the world under a clean banner, confident that the errors were safely buried with the previous administration. The machinery of foreign policy continued without interruption. Only the moral atmosphere changed.
The media went through its own version of this ritual. In the lead-up to the war, major outlets repeated government claims about weapons of mass destruction and treated the invasion as a necessary moral mission. When the reality became a porous mess of sectarian violence and no weapons appeared, the institutions faced a crisis of legitimacy. They responded with long editor’s notes and retrospectives that blamed faulty intelligence and specific sourcing failures. The New York Times confessed to procedural mistakes. Individual reporters absorbed the blame. The institution’s core commitment to objectivity remained, in its own telling, intact. The structural reasons why a free press supported a war of choice were never examined. Once the ritual was complete, the media could adopt a posture of critical distance from the Bush administration’s handling of the occupation, as if they had always been detached observers rather than active participants in the mobilization for war.
The media also struggled with the religious dimension of the conflict for the same reason the planners did. Journalists operating with a buffered identity looked for rational grievances, economic interests, political motivations, because those are the things a secular mind recognizes as real. When they covered the rise of sectarian militias or the Mahdi Army, they reached for the word extremism, which allowed them to treat religious fervor as an irrational outlier rather than a coherent social logic. They reported on insurgents as if they were a political party with a platform. They missed that for many Iraqis, the spiritual and the political are the same thing, and that the American presence was not a neutral administrative force but a pollutant in a sacred landscape. Because the media could not translate this, the American public was perpetually surprised by the intensity and persistence of the violence. The situation was not incomprehensible. The framework being used to describe it simply could not see what was there.
By the late 2000s, the coalition that had organized itself around the Iraq War had become a liability. The alliance needed a new project, a cleaner enemy, a more credible signal of American strength. China provided it. The pivot to Asia allowed the national security establishment to rebuild its alliances around maritime security, technological competition, and great power rivalry. A state actor fits the Schmittean friend/enemy distinction far more cleanly than a porous sectarian insurgency. China is an enemy that experts feel they can model, map, and use to mobilize domestic support without the complications of an occupation. The pivot also functions as a purification ritual for the foreign policy establishment itself. By turning the page on the Long War, the elite left behind the failures of the Iraq era without ever fully accounting for them. Great Power Competition restores a sense of order to American strategy, making it look like a rational chess match between sovereign actors rather than a confused struggle against forces that the buffered Western mind could not recognize, name, or defeat.
The lesson of Iraq is not that the pretext was false. Elites have always known that pretexts are tools. The lesson is that a society organized around the buffered self, managed by experts who mistake their models for reality, held together by coalitions that prize loyalty over truth, and equipped with purification rituals that absorb failure without producing accountability, will keep making the same kind of mistake. The geography changes. The enemy gets a new name. The machinery runs on.