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Category Archives: Iran
Decoding Trump’s Rhetoric About The Iran War
Donald Trump has not really been speaking with one voice. He has been speaking to five audiences at once. What looks like incoherence is mostly coalition management per David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory. In February 2025, Trump restored “maximum pressure” on … Continue reading
Posted in Alliance Theory, America, Donald Trump, Iran
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Decoding The International Institute for Strategic Studies
The International Institute for Strategic Studies represents the gold standard for institutionalized strategic logic. It operates less as a traditional think tank and more as a high-level clearinghouse for the global security establishment. Institutional Identity and Flagship Products The London-based … Continue reading
Posted in Iran
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High-Brow New York Times Op/Ed By Iran Expert Destroyed By Reality
Eyal Yakoby posts: “BREAKING: Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly severely injured, one of his legs has been amputated, and he may not even be aware that he is the Supreme Leader.” I spent my weekend reading the 2025 book “Iran’s Grand … Continue reading
Posted in Blob, Expertise, Iran, Journalism, Pundits
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Zineba Riboua: Trump’s Middle East: Operation Epic Fury is the Logical Conclusion of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Zineb Riboua’s essay explains Trump’s strategy, legitimizes the war, and frames it as structural rather than impulsive. Her biggest move it makes is rehabilitating Trump as a coherent actor rather than a chaotic one. The foreign policy establishment tends to … Continue reading
Posted in Iran
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Decoding Iran’s Gray Zone Strategy
The gray zone is the contested arena that sits between routine statecraft and open warfare. It is defined by a paradox: it is an area of intense competition where actors use every tool of national power to achieve strategic gains, … Continue reading
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Decoding Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is a technical military specialist inside the pro-Israel strategic policy ecosystem. He works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, an institution that sits close to the Israel security perspective but speaks in the language of military … Continue reading
Tell Me How This Ends
JP Morgan on how Operation Epic Fury would end: “Resource risk will begin to outweigh increasingly marginal military gains and the conclusion to the conflict will come down to the three M’s : Munitions, Markets and Midterms.” That JPMorgan line … Continue reading
Posted in Iran
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Reluctant Relief That Trump Is Bombing Iran Seeps Through Elite Commentary
You can see hints of it. It rarely appears as open approval. It leaks out in tone, framing, and what journalists choose to emphasize. One signal is the grudging competence frame. Analysts who strongly dislike Trump will write things like … Continue reading
Posted in Blob, Expertise, Iran, Journalism
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MSM Symmetry In Iran Coverage
Most national security reporters sit inside the same information ecosystem as the officials they cover. Their sources are Pentagon officers, intelligence briefers, congressional staff, and think tank analysts. When a crisis hits, those relationships become the primary pipeline of information. … Continue reading
Posted in Blob, Expertise, Iran, Journalism
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Decoding The Iran War (3-8-26)
01:00 Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History (2025), https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17456111:20 Vali Nasr Exclusive: ‘War is being waged ‘: Vali Nasr on Israel-US campaign against Iran25:00 The First Gulf War, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17460528:00 Understanding The Elite Frame On The Iran War, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17462535:00 Mark Halperin: … Continue reading