Back To Blood

Comments:

* Ideology is more important than ethnicity.

* Well, the thing is that people – particularly on the low end of the intelligence and education spectrum – aren’t ideological thinkers. (In truth, even lots of ideological thinkers emote first and then align their ideologies with the products of their emotions). Since American politics have degenerated into rather naked appeals to racial/tribal identity (except, of course, for whites), ideology is inherently more flexible. For example, blacks and Hispanics used to report the highest aversion to gay marriage in polls, but had no problem modifying what is supposedly a deeply held belief in order to support candidates more aligned with their “tribes.” And so what must be done in the cases of non-white Republicans (and to an extent, female Republicans) is to deracinate them – to strip them of their racial identities (with an extra dollop of humiliation) and therefore “tribe” membership – in order to herd them back to the ideological true North to which they are only tenuously attached.

* Marco Rubio is a second-generation Mestizo-Cuban migrant. He is married second-generation Mestizo-Hispanic Colombian migrant. Both of them have working class backgrounds. His wife was a cheerleader with associate degree from a community college. Both of them grew up in Latino neighborhood in Cuban Miami. Both Rubio and his wife are Spanish-speaking Catholics. Before Rubio became a career politician he was a small time struggling lawyer trying to become a full-time politician. Rubio is as much Hispanic you can become without being born in Mexico.

Ted Cruz father was born in Cuba to a first-generation bourgeois Spanish migrant family. Cruz’s father left for United States to study mathematics at University of Texas. As a staunch anti-communist (for good reasons) he was granted asylum. After he graduated he had long and successful career in the tech industry in United States and Canada. When returned to United States he became a public figure working as an evangelical pastor. Ted Cruz mother is WASP-American from Delaware with a BA in mathematics and computer science. Ted Cruz is born in Canada, grew up in wealthy Protestant neighborhoods in Texas. Cruz had a dual US-Canadian citizenship until 2013.

Cruz married a blonde upper-middle class Mormon from California. She has made a successful career as an investment banker for Goldman Sachs. She has also close ties to Washington DC. As for Ted Cruz – the only thing which makes him “Hispanic” is that his father was born in Cuba to Spanish parents. The political difference between Rubio and Cruz is that Cruz is a “US-firsters” (but he is also a populist and careerist…he is no Ron Paul) while Rubio has no principles at all. Rubio’s entire campaign is based around what his donors want him to say. Americans see Ted Cruz as an American while they see Rubio as a liberal anchor baby trying to make a living as a donors-puppet in Washington DC.

* Authentic Hispanics build a wall: Peru’s ten-foot high Wall Of Shame topped with razor wire which divides the rich and poor to stop the less well-off stealing from the wealthy.

* If border state Hispanics assimilate so well into U.S society, why has there been massive White flight from border states.

Posted in America, Latino | Comments Off on Back To Blood

Whither David Frum?

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* While Frum seems to “understand” the concerns of middle/working class Republicans, he doesn’t really seem to feel himself to be a part of them, or very sympathetic to them. Instead he seems to be treating them as just one more group whose wishes need to be considered, and gives their concerns – concerns about rewarding indolence, graft, and illegality – no moral weight whatsoever. The white middle class is only important because of their share of the voting base, not because their ideals are any better than those of Wall Street banksters, champagne socialists, or welfare queens.

Just as bad, and just plain damn naive, is how Frum seems to think that Wall Street support for open borders is just some minor policy point which they’d be willing to discard if “GOLLY GEE, THEY ONLY JUST UNDERSTOOD THE CONCERNS OF REGULAR AMERICANS A LITTLE BIT BETTER.”

That’s laughable. Wall Street has been committed to open borders since at least the George H. W. Bush Administration. Since the early 2000s that support has gone into overdrive. They are obsessed with driving down American wages, obsessed with increasing their customer base, and obsessed with disenfranchising the middle class Americans who have stymied them in the past. It is a central tenet of their ideology. It is non-negotiable. Does Frum really think that all the lies and betrayals on immigration by the elite, and the open, decade-long push by them to eliminate our borders, even in the face of extreme national security concerns, are just the result of some simple misunderstandings? He’s got to be high.

* Frum is of course a neocon and one of the main architects of W.’s “Axis of Evil” ideology in relation to the Iraq War. Before that, he wrote disparagingly about the ’90′s Conservatives (social/religious ones in particular) with dispassionate disdain.

The idea that Frum really cares about the immigration issue as it relates to the white working class is of course an illusion. But it does make for interesting reading in the Atlantic. In other words Frum, perhaps unintentionally has elevated some of the issues that Trump in particular has campaigned on for the past half year only now it is reaching the pages of polite and respectable opinion.

And remember, for the Atlantic, Frum’s article and its contents is simply shocking, daring, and totally outrageous.

* This second Frum article not nearly as good as the first one. The alternatives he lays out for the Republican party struck me as incoherent. Which is fine with me since I would like to see a new Republican party that I might actually support. I guess that makes me a Trumpian.

* Frum’s alternative #3 is for a somewhat Trumpian party. Does anyone know what happened to Frum? He was such a knee-jerk neocon for so long. I’m not sure if he’s changed his foreign policy views at all (a la Peter Beinart) but his domestic positions lately very lucid.

* I’m pretty sure he’s been consistent in his views (although more willing to compromise on foreign policy for immigration restriction now, since he recognizes that in the long term American support for Israel depends on preventing a non-white majority).

What’s changed is the libertarian-flavored alt-right has given way to the Trumpian alt-right, and thus people who once seemed like bitter enemies now are allies, and vice versa.

* All to get rid of WashingtonDC-Centric Obama-ism that a President Hillary will only build on such as super open borders and harsher Federal hate crime laws
One example being>>> Beefs about Jews and Israel and APAIC are being put on hold to get Trump elected. Alt-Right knows demographic tides and knows that Donald Trump is our last best chance to put much of Federally enforced Obama-ism into reverse drive.

When Trump trumpets that he will nullify hundreds of Obama’s executive orders on his first day in office, I do not doubt him!

Posted in Immigration | Comments Off on Whither David Frum?

Why Have Scandinavians Gone Nuts With Immigration?

Comment: Scandinavians are not Christians, most of them are Atheists. Not many Scandinavians go to church. To Scandinavians going to church in 2015 is like owning a VCR in 2015. Churches in Scandinavia are like stores who are going out of business.

So Scandinavians love for Muslims and Blacks has ZERO to do with Christian compassion. It has 100 percent to do with White guilt. The Scandinavians who love DIEversity are secular progressive socially Liberal types who want to legalize all drugs, ban all legal gun ownership, legalize same sex marriage, want Transgenders to use Women’s Restrooms, and have unregulated abortions with no limits. These people are not socially Conservative bible thumping Christians like the Graham family and Rick Warren. These Scandinavians would culturally blend right in Manhattan or San Francisco and would feel culturally out of place if they step foot in Tennessee or Texas.

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Are you a girl over 22? Then don’t even bother with online dating: Hilarious graph shows men prefer young women

Daily Mail: It’s no secret that men tend to see younger women as more attractive, but the extreme to which this holds true is somewhat alarming.
According to a graph based on data from OKCupid dating profiles, women tend to be most attracted to men who are around their same age.
But the case is drastically different for men; the graph shows that once a woman passes the age of 22, she becomes exponentially less attractive to men.
OKCupid president and co-founder Christian Rudder presents these results in his forthcoming book Dataclysm: Who We Are When We Think No One’s Looking, which hits stores on Wednesday.
At an event in mid-August, Mr Rudder, 39, explained the results to a dumbfounded crowd.
‘Women who are, say, 28, find guys who are also 28 about the most attractive, and so forth. Up until about 40, when that’s getting too old,’ he said.
By contrast, women begin to decline in attractiveness – from the perspective of men – as soon as they hit their early twenties.
‘It is kind of terrible,’ he admitted. ‘From the time you’re 22 you’ll be less hot than a 20-year-old, based on this data. So that’s just a thing.’
While these stats may be depressing, Mr Rudder clarifies that it doesn’t mean all women over 22 should necessarily expect to be left high and dry.
‘This is just measuring people’s opinions, not what they actually go out and do,’ he told NPR.
Read about it: OKCupid president Christian Rudder presents these results in hist forthcoming book Dataclysm, which hits stores on Wednesday
Read about it: OKCupid president Christian Rudder presents these results in hist forthcoming book Dataclysm, which hits stores on Wednesday
‘What you see when you actually look at what people do, you see the realism set in. So these 40-year-old guys… the people they actually have the courage to actually go out and message are a lot older: it’s 30, 35-year-old women.’
On his blog, OKData, he delves into this pattern even further, explaining that as men get older they tend to search for younger and younger women.
‘The median 31-year-old guy, for example, sets his allowable match age range from 22 to 35 – nine years younger, but only four years older, than himself,’ he writes.
‘This skewed mindset worsens with age; the median 42-year-old will accept a woman up to 15 years younger, but no more than three years older.’

Posted in Dating | Comments Off on Are you a girl over 22? Then don’t even bother with online dating: Hilarious graph shows men prefer young women

The Case For Immigration Insurance

Comments:

* Tie right to immigrate to right of citizens to INVITE and be RESPONSIBLE for particular immigrants. If a person is opposed to immigration they can act in the marketplace by not acting, thus lowering the immigration level. Secondly, my innovation is to make the sponsor group jointly and severally responsible, thus focusing the negative externalities that pro-immigration create for society back onto the sponsor group rather than entangling the no-immigration people with cost-sharing those externalities. That second policy should have a nice depressive effect on levels of immigration, there’s nothing like forcing people to put skin in the game.

* Citizenship should be bought and sold.

To become a citizen, a buyer purchases citizenship from an existing citizen. The buyer is now a citizen, but the seller has sold his citizenship, and must leave the nation.

Buying citizenship is a big investment. The new citizen wants the price of citizenship to increase over time, so that he may eventually re-sell his citizenship at a profit.

In order to increase the price of citizenship, citizens want government to increase the demand for citizenship.

Government increases the demand for citizenship by increasing the standard of living of the nation.

In addition to buying citizenship, citizens should also be required to buy insurance to pay for unexpected costs such as prison, illness or children.

* I would structure it as a bond rather than as insurance. Reform immigration so we have three initial immigration pathways:

1. Unsponsored immigration: 5 year residence and work permit, bought with a $1 million cash payment to the Treasury, of which $500K goes straight to the general fund and $500K goes into a quasi-insurance pool to cover injuries due to immigrants. US government is the payor of last resort if the pool is exhausted.

2. Sponsored immigration: must be sponsored by a US person (with a US citizen company representative agreeing to be personally jointly liable if sponsored by a company), and backed by a $50K bond, which rolls over for each year of sponsorship. Injuries caused by immigrant are his financial responsibility in the first instance, but his assets may be overseas and difficult to access. $50K bond is to cover excess liability above US recovery from the immigrant (what he voluntarily pays in response to a judgment + recovery from his US assets), and after the $50K, the sponsor is liable. I would imagine the insurance industry would develop insurance products to cover the sponsor liability portion. Possibly require a $5,000 payment to the Treasury for each year of residency with a work permit, to be put into a fund to support unemployment and retraining for US workers.

3. Refugees: 5 year residence and work permit, backed out of the same quasi-insurance pool funded with fees from unsponsored immigrants. US government is payor of last resort if the pool is exhausted.

I’d also keep education and training visas; you could roll these into the “sponsored immigration” column, though. Given the expense of a college education, keeping a $50K bond for 4 years of college shouldn’t be impossible, and if a college really wants a student, they can pay it out of their endowment. They get it back at the end (assuming good behaviour by the student), so it just ties up a portion of their assets for 4 years.

Immigrants would be eligible for permanent residence after 10 years of peaceful residence in the US (two 5 year periods = $2 million, or 10-years sponsored residence). You’d get a lot of fraud in sponsorship (or people just sponsoring their kin — that’s what I would do), but by requiring the bond and making US citizen sponsors liable for the acts of their sponsorees, you can establish the necessary financial disincentives against unrestrained and irresponsible immigration. If you wanted to staff a workforce with 500 immigrants, that would require you to tie up $25 million for the bonds. And if they cause a bunch of car accidents, get into fights, etc., then you won’t get that $25 million back.

Families and children of immigrants wouldn’t be eligible independently (although one could save up and get a US citizen to sponsor them as well, potentially, or bring children in under student visas). But they ought to have comparatively easy access to temporary visas (e.g. a 30 or 90 day stay), with liability for any injuries they cause running to the immigrant and thence to his sponsor.

* You could make citizens shareholders of the country. Have an IPO with two classes of shares: one with voting rights (A shares; every citizen gets one share. Transferable only on death or by an heir.), and one share class (B) without voting rights (can be bought by citizens or foreigners). Both share classes pay the same dividends when there’s a federal budget surplus. Owners of B shares are eligible for green cards.

Would be the biggest IPO in world history: “The business of America is business, and now America just became a business. Own a piece of it.”. The US could issue 1 million B shares and set the initial price at $100k each. Immigration advocates could buy shares and give them to whomever they wanted, but the more demand, the pricier the shares would get.

A-shareholders would immediately ban birthright citizenship to avoid dilution. Their heirs could either sell the extra A-shares they inherit, or they could keep them and have additional votes. The only way for someone to become a citizen, other than to be born to two citizen parents, would be to buy an A-share from someone who inherited it. Over time, those whose ancestors had been here longer could end up with more voting power than new immigrants/A-shareholders.

* All of these fancy schmantzy schemes run afoul of one thing: it’s certain those who will be in charge of enforcing them, will have no desire to do so, except against the few people who they really don’t want in, e.g., heterosexual non-Jewish white males and their spouses.

The simplest rule has the best chance of enforcement, which is: no immigrants, period.

Of course they will hate that too, but it’s tough to get around absolute prohibitions.

No immigrants for at least one full generation, and foreign students being sorely limited to a few specific programs designed to train people who will go back and “fix their own countries”.

No H-1B program, and tariff all products and services of companies who do “inversions”.

* Selling citizenship and requiring citizens to buy insurance is politically impossible in any existing nation.

In order to implement these ideas, a new nation must be created.

This new nation, unencumbered by dysfunctional citizens, would have a very high standard of living.

This new nation could be a corporation which sells citizenships for profit.

This nation-corporation could buy a vast swath of land, provide effective government, sell a billion citizenships, and collect trillions of dollars in profit.

* The Eastern and Southern European immigrants of the Great Wave Era very often were filthy, backward and ignorant. Many of them were turned back as unsuitable, especially if they proved diseased, or merely seemed likely to prove burdensome. Those admitted also shared the crux of European civilization, however, and later proved to have IQ distributions fairly close to native-born Americans– and, in the case of Eastern-European Jews, markedly higher! Ergo, they and, especially, their offspring were able to assimilate, once the immigration flood gates were finally closed, in the 1920s, limiting the flow to a relative trickle, for the next two generations.

The endless millions of Latin American and other Third World peasants of the current tidal wave of immigration mostly do not have IQs close to the American median, and they also are coming to an advanced, 21st-Century, First World country, not to a largely agrarian, 19th-Century one, where brawn still was needed en masse, both on the farms and in the mills and factories, inter alia. They also are coming now to a welfare state that did not exist, back during the Great Wave. A large portion of immigrants to America, in that earlier era, returned to Europe, either because they could not succeed here or because they simply did not readily assimilate to American society, and wished to go home. Today, the American government goes out of its way not to screen out low-quality, or even outright criminal, aliens; it practically refuses to deport them, even when they are here illegally. America’s current welfare state gives those Third World immigrants every reason to remain here, rather than to return to their own countries of origin– even when they dislike, or outright despise, the dwindling European-American majority and its traditional European-American culture.

The earlier immigrants also tended to be from European peoples without strong national ties to the governments ruling them– e.g., the Austro-Hungarian Empire– and usually became patriotic Americans, often making sure that their children spoke only English, not their ancestral languages too. A large portion of today’s immigrants to America come bearing historical grudges against America– like the national loathing that most Mexicans have for America, as a country, and for gringos, generally– and they relate to their ancestral countries and peoples, not to traditional Americans and to Western Civilization, generally. Identity politics, today, is largely based on recent immigrants and their native-born descendants who refuse to assimilate fully, as previous immigrants and their descendants did. The contemporary Democratic Party and ethnic lobbies all are dependent, now, upon maintaining the alienness of even native-born minorities.

It is beyond peradventure that the immigration deluge unleashed by the 1965 act has proved a boon, economically and otherwise, to only two appreciable groups: the immigrant communities themselves and the plutocratic ownership class that has grown ever-richer off of cheap labor and resource scarcity (e.g., housing stock). The rest of us have been virtually transplanted to a modern-day version of Babylon.

MORE COMMENTS:

* US population right now is roughly around the India of 1951 mark.
Also, population growth rates in contemporary India and the USA, don’t differ substantially.

If it was not for immigration, the American population would have stabilized at a ‘reasonable’ level of around 200 million or so, decades ago.

Now, in the long term, it’s pretty certain it’s following an India like trajectory.

* Back about ten years ago I was in a junior college history class and the instructor noted the projection that whites would be a minority in 40-50 years, with Hispanics possibly a majority. The lone Latin man in class responded, “That’s a scary thought.”
The instructor asked, “Why do you say that?”
“I know my own people”, he replied.

Posted in Immigration | Comments Off on The Case For Immigration Insurance

Whites & Christmas

Comments:

* Asian Americans are like Orthodox Jews/Hasidic Jews and Muslims, in that they do not celebrate Christmas unless they are Catholic Filipinos who were colonized by the Spaniards who brought this yearly European tradition to The Philippines.

The vast majority of Asian Americans who are not Filipino practice Eastern Oriental religions like Buddhism, Shinto, and Taoism for example. And these religions do believe in celebrating Christmas.

The vast majority of people who celebrate Christmas are either Europeans or Nonwhite people who were colonized and or enslaved by Europeans.

Either way the vast majority of people who celebrate Christmas have some kind of tie to Europe either racially, religiously, language wise, or all 3.

Christmas would not be an extremely popular holiday in Brazil for example, if that nation had been colonized by Saudi Arabians or the Han Chinese instead of the Portuguese.

If White people had never existed, neither would have Christmas.

Posted in Asians, Christianity, Christmas, Whites | Comments Off on Whites & Christmas

Elites and media really hate Donald Trump’s voters

Michael Walsh writes: To hear the patronizing wise men of the Republican Party tell it, anyone who would vote for Donald Trump for president must be deranged. “Trumpkins,” they call them, mental midgets and xenophobic troglodytes who’ve crawled out from their survivalist caves in order to destroy the Beltway Establishment.

How their resentful attitude galls the crack cadres of campaign consultants who brought conservatives halfhearted standard-bearers like John McCain and Mitt Romney to do sham battle against Barack Obama in 2008 and ’12, then return to the safety of the US Senate and a beachfront mansion in La Jolla.

The peasants are revolting!

…In the movie business, there’s something called the “cheer moment,” when the long-suffering hero finally decks his tormentor with a satisfying right cross. What the Beltway Republicans fail to understand is that their conservative base — which gave them stunning congressional victories in 2010 and 2014 and has nothing to show for it — has been longing for precisely that moment since Reagan crushed Mondale 49-1 in 1984.

The Trumpkins are sick of winning and having nothing to show for it, and their vengeance will be terrible. Maybe the Establishment should stop belittling them and listen instead.

Posted in Donald Trump | Comments Off on Elites and media really hate Donald Trump’s voters

Muslim prayer hall is ransacked by Koran-burning demonstrators chanting ‘Arabs get out’ on the French island of Corsica

Daily Mail: Up to 600 French protesters desecrated a Muslim prayer hall in Corsica in a revenge attack prompted by the wounding of two firefighters and a police officer.
The furious mob smashed the prayer hall’s glass door, ransacked the interior and left around 50 partially-burned Korans littering the street overnight.
Chanting ‘Arabs get out!’ and ‘This is our home’, protesters marched through the streets of the French Mediterranean island’s capital, Ajaccio.
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls described the attack on Twitter as ‘an unacceptable desecration’, and branded the violence towards the firefighters as an ‘intolerable attack’.
The violence began on the night of December 24, when two firefighters were ‘ambushed’ by ‘several hooded youths’ in the low-income neighbourhood of Jardins de L’Empereur.
It escalated when several hundred people gathered in front of police headquarters in the capital city, before marching through the streets to the housing estate where the attack on the firefighters took place.
They then launched the violent assault on the local prayer room.
Interior Minister Bernard Cazaneuve insisted the perpetrators of both incidents would be tracked down and arrested, adding that there was no place for ‘racism and xenophobia’ in France.
He said of the attack on the firefighters that he hoped ‘the authors of the violence would be identified and arrested as soon as possible’.
Anouar Kbibech, president of the French Council of the Muslim Faith (CFCM), said he had learnt of the mosque attack and the burning of ‘several copies of the Koran’ with ‘distress’.
Dalil Boubakeur, the rector of the Grand Mosque of Paris, said he was ‘dismayed and saddened’ by the events on Corsica in an appearance on France’s BFMTV, calling for ‘calm and cool heads’.
Local authorities including Christophe Mirmand, the prefect or top official of Corsica, also vowed to arrest those responsible for the outbreak of violence.

Posted in Islam | Comments Off on Muslim prayer hall is ransacked by Koran-burning demonstrators chanting ‘Arabs get out’ on the French island of Corsica

Trying to Hide the Rise of Violent Crime

Heather Mac Donald writes:

Murders and shootings have spiked in many American cities—and so have efforts to ignore or deny the crime increase. The see-no-evil campaign eagerly embraced a report last month by the Brennan Center for Justice called “Crime in 2015: A Preliminary Analysis.” Many progressives and their media allies hailed the report as a refutation of what I and others have dubbed the “Ferguson effect”— cops backing off from proactive policing, demoralized by the ugly vitriol directed at them since a police shooting in Ferguson, Mo., last year. Americans are being asked to disbelieve both the Ferguson effect and its result: violent crime flourishing in the ensuing vacuum.

In fact, the Brennan Center’s report confirms the Ferguson effect, while also showing how clueless the media are about crime and policing.

The Brennan researchers gathered homicide data from 25 of the nation’s 30 largest cities for the period Jan. 1, 2015, to Oct. 1, 2015. (Not included were San Francisco, Indianapolis, Columbus, El Paso and Nashville.) The researchers then tried to estimate what 2015’s full-year homicide numbers for those 25 cities would be, based on the extent to which homicides were up from January to October this year compared with the similar period in 2014.

The resulting projected increase for homicides in 2015 in those 25 cities is 11%. (By point of comparison, the FiveThirtyEight data blog looked at the 60 largest cities and found a 16% increase in homicides by September 2015.) An 11% one-year increase in any crime category is massive; an equivalent decrease in homicides would be greeted with high-fives by politicians and police chiefs. Yet the media have tried to repackage that 11% homicide increase as trivial.

Several strategies are employed to play down the jump in homicides. The simplest is to hide the actual figure. An Atlantic magazine article in November, “Debunking the Ferguson Effect,” reports: “Based on their data, the Brennan Center projects that homicides will rise slightly overall from 2014 to 2015.” A reader could be forgiven for thinking that “slightly” means an increase of, say, 2%. Nothing in the Atlantic write-up disabuses the reader of that mistaken impression. The website Vox, declaring the crime increase “bunk,” is similarly discreet about the actual homicide rate, leaving it to the reader’s imagination. Crime & Justice News, published by the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, coyly admits that “murder is up moderately in some places” without disclosing what that “moderate” increase may be.

A second strategy for brushing off the homicide surge is to contextualize it over a long period. Because homicides haven’t returned to their appalling early 1990s or early 2000s levels, the current crime increase is insignificant, the Brennan Center and its media supporters suggest, echoing an argument that arose immediately after I first documented the Ferguson effect nationally.

“Today’s murder rates are still at all-time historic lows,” write the Brennan researchers. “In 1990 there were 29.3 murders per 100,000 residents in these cities. In 2000, there were 13.8 murders per 100,000. Now, there are 9.9 murders per 100,000 residents. Averaged across the cities, we find that while Americans in urban areas have experienced more murders this year than last year, they are safer than they were five years ago and much safer than they were 25 years ago.”

The Atlantic is similarly reassuring about today’s homicide rate: “The relative uptick”—which, again, the magazine never specifies—“is still small compared with the massive two-decade drop that preceded it.” True enough, though irrelevant—good policing over the past two decades produced an extraordinary 50% drop in crime. America isn’t going to give all that back in one year. The relevant question: What is the current trend? If this year’s homicide and shooting outbreak continues, those 1990s violent crime levels will return sooner than anyone could have imagined.

The most desperate tactic for discounting the homicide increase is to disaggregate the average. “Fears of ‘a new nationwide crime wave’ are premature at best and wildly misleading at worst,” asserts the Atlantic, because the “numbers make clear that violent crime is up in some major U.S. cities and down in others.”

But such variance is inherent in any average. If there weren’t variation across the members of a set, no average would be needed. Any national crime increase or decrease will have counterexamples of the dominant trend within it, yet policy makers and analysts rightly find the average meaningful. The Ferguson effect’s existence does not require that every city experience depolicing and a resulting crime increase. Enough cities—in particular, those with significant black populations and where antipolice agitation has been most strident—are experiencing murder increases that cannot be ignored.

Baltimore’s per capita homicide rate, for example, is now the highest in its history, according to the Baltimore Sun: 54 homicides per 100,000 residents, beating its 1993 rate of 48.8 per 100,000 residents. Shootings in Cincinnati, lethal and not, were up 30% by mid-September 2015 compared with the same period in 2014. Homicides in St. Louis were up 60% by the end of August. In Los Angeles, the police department reports that violent crime has increased 20% as of Dec. 5; there were 16% more shooting victims in the city, while arrests were down 9.5%. Shooting incidents in Chicago are up 17% through Dec. 13.

The Brennan Center report also tries to underplay the homicide increase by folding it into crime overall. The report projects that in 19 cities the 2015 average for all seven of the FBI’s index crimes—murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and car theft—will be 1.5% less than in 2014. The FBI’s crime index is dominated by property crimes, which outnumber offenses committed against persons by a magnitude of nearly 8 to 1. The Ferguson effect is about violent crime, not theft. Proactive police stops and low-level misdemeanor enforcement deter young men from carrying guns, thus heading off violent felonies before they can erupt.

Career burglars are less affected by whether a cop is likely to get out of his car and question someone hitching up his waistband on a known drug corner at 1 a.m. If property crimes haven’t increased as much as homicides, that’s good news for homeowners but no disproof of depolicing’s role in the violent-crime spike.

Posted in Blacks, Crime | Comments Off on Trying to Hide the Rise of Violent Crime

Sponsoring Immigrants, Paying The Price

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* Making individuals fully responsible seems like a pretty good idea to me.

Potential immigrants could post their particulars onto an online exchange.

U.S. citizens could opt to sponsor these immigrants. Judging from the vehemence of my pro-immigration facebook friends they would undoubtedly be snapped up in no time, especially the Muslims.

The downside would be that these sponsor are responsible for any costs associated with accommodating these new immigrants. There would be NO public assistance for these new arrivals. If they cannot support themselves, their sponsor must pick up the slack. Further, if these new arrivals or their offspring commit a crime, their sponsor could be sued for damages.

For an upside, in addition to helping America “live up to our values” and welcome the vibrant diversity that “is our strength” the sponsor could negotiate with the immigrant for a piece of whatever positive gains that immigrant generates. For instance, whoever sponsors the next Elon Musk could be getting a stream of income from whatever businesses he generates.

These sponsorships could be bought and sold, and naturally a robust market for evaluating risk & rewards of various demographic groups would develop, created by people with genuine interest in best-case scenarios for America.

Privatized gains and losses, harnessing the power of the market to identify risk/reward, plus the opportunity for individuals to put their money where their mouths are… what’s not to like?

* As an economist, I like talking finance on Christmas Day. The insurance idea is very good. The post suggested on wrinkle, cohorts.

1. Here’s how cohorts could work. Immigrants are organized in cohorts of 200. They have to find a cohort willing to let them join. People who don’t know anybody will have to join a cohort of the friendless. One way to get in would be to post a money bond. The bond would be forfeited (or partially reduced) if any single member misbehaves. They would have to keep their addresses on file with a cohort leader, so there’d be some chance of keeping track of each other. If a member turns in another member, he gets bonus points, a specially large share of the bond back. (Of course, this would have to be verified for double-crossings.) If a member is especially helpful to police, same thing. After 20 years they get their bond plus interest. Or this could be privatized and they’d get back whatever rate competitive bidding results in.

Most people wouldn’t be able to afford to post much of a bond— though I bet everyone could post $2000. Remember, they have enough money to bribe people and get over here. This would be a different category. They would pay for their bond ex post. They would pay nothing initially, but after 20 years they would have to pay the bond plus interest. If nobody misbehaves, they pay nothing. If somebody does, then they pay up to their share of the bond amount. If they don’t pay, it is like not paying income tax— the government seizes your truck and garnishes your wages– or, better, yet, like student loans and not dischargeable in bankruptcy. Better yet, your assets are seized PLUS you are deported together with any children you had.

A part of this would be that death does not discharge the debt. The heirs are liable for the parents’ bond.

2. Another idea. FOr the impecunious cohorts, an American citizen can act as guarantor. He pays the bond, and he gets it back in 20 years. Thus, someone who likes immigration could invest in it.

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