REPORT: Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.
However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.
“Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls,” he concluded on the Crystal Ball site.
Posted inAmerica|Comments Off on Always correct election forecast model predicts Trump win, 51%-48%
Comments: On the subject of cults, any insights into the persons standing in pedestrian “islands” of major streets holding up “Homeless, please help” signs?
Not only have I noticed that every street corner of the major intersections features one of these Sign People, but our Radical Mayor-for-Life of Wisconsin’s People’s Republic (just up I-94 from Milwaukee) is “noticing” the same thing. Turns out that the People’s Republic had an anti-panhandling ordinance that was struck down by a Federal judge (there is no professional courtesy among SJW’s?). This was 3 months ago, and since then, these Sign People seem to have appeared out of nowhere to stand vigil in intersections.
Radical Mayor is not just noticing, he is spitting pins over this, or at least he is showing as much agitation as an aging Radical from the 60′s with the low-energy affect of a chronic heart condition is able to muster. He is lobbying his City Council to pass a broader replacement ordinance to work around the First Amendment concerns of the Federal judge by making it about “traffic safety”, he is castigating the homelessness advocates who are opposing this along with the City Council that is slow walking it, and he is calling the Sign People “grifters.”
“Grifters” suggest people acting on their individual initiative to cash on the lucrative panhandling trade that is now legal.
I am wondering if the Sign People belong to a cult? None of them have the look of major mental illness, alcohol use, and malnutrition of the Downtown street people. They kind of look like the people serving as marshals when President Obama comes to town to give a speech. They kind of look like Hollywood actors where they take short-statured actors in their late 20′s and early 30′s and have them play teen characters. The look to have padded on some “grime makeup” and dressed down to look like a popular conception of a homeless person. With regard to my cult theory, the Sign People all look fake in the same way.
The other thing is that some local reporter “went undercover” to work one of these street corners and found that begging could rake in a lot of money, but it seems like a lot of hard work to stand in one spot with a sign for hours in the heat and humidity that has been our summer this year. My cult theory is that there is some Jim Jones guy who calls upon his followers to do this as part of showing fealty, he rakes in the “skim” from the begging, but it is not about the money but rather part of the hazing ritual to belong to the cult to stand on the street?
Again, the amount of money would not motivate me to undergo the hardship, but were I in a cult, the social acceptance angle could motivate me. Any insights into what could be going on?
Posted inHomeless|Comments Off on Pedestrian Island Beggars
* Why should she? She’s leading by freaking 10 points in North Carolina and Virginia, about tied in Georgia. She doesn’t need to take any risks at all, because the American people are beyond cucked and Trump can’t [stop] saying stupid things.
* If she actually discussed hate crimes against whites, she’d be far to the right of the entire Republican party, including Trump.
* Cops need to leave the brothers alone. No matter what we doing. Part of reparations need to be we can go anywhere we want, any time we want, and do anything we want, and the man just sit there and take it. Or we burn down the city and the man has to rebuild it.
* Sister Souljah moments are from a different era when the Democrats were trying to win the nonblack vote.
* I used to think women didn’t riot. Glad to see they’re empowered enough now to join in.
* The police shooting did not cause the riot. The riot had been ongoing for weeks due to general black-take-over-the-store mentality. The riot had escalated into broken windows and random shooting-into-the-air-by-blacks-because-falling-bullets-fall-somewhere-else-and-don’t hurt-me behavior. Then, the police tried to apprehend one black with a gun.
The police are blamed because it is easier to blame them than to accept responsibility for black-mob-behavior.
* We’ve had decades now of race revenge porn movies where whitey finally gets what’s coming to him. Blacks eat that shit up and are ready to be their own heroes in getting revenge. No different than some Hamas propaganda summer camp.
* And speaking of headlines, This was a NY Times headline on the Milwaukee, uh, situation, just moments ago:
Yes, the headline said that the man was unarmed (I have a screenshot).
Presumably, that headline was ditched, but on the article itself the headline is now:
National Guard Deployed in Milwaukee Amid Unrest Over Fatal Police Shooting
“Unrest”?
I find that, for myself, a cup of hot milk does the trick pretty well when I suffer from unrest. I hope somebody offers this suggestion to the poor people of Milwaukee who are having such a bad time.
* Fun exercise: try to find anything about this on the NYT front page. You have to search for “mil,” and it’s many stories down under the headline “Governor Activates National Guard After Police Shooting.”
* For comparison’s sake, here’s the Daily Kos’ headline on this event:
“Unrest in Milwaukee after man is killed by the police”
* Notice these violent riots always happen in northern and Midwestern cities? I mean, there were protests in Baton Rouge and a lot of verbal abuse towards police in riot fear but nothing was burned down, and no random white people were attacked in their cars. This footage is nuts.
The deep South has way more blacks and more racial tension than people think, yet no riots on this scale in recent memory.
Half of the racial problems in the country could be solved by a little more swagger from whites. Midwesterners have to stop being so nice. They are like the nice white lady teacher who can’t control her class.
If suburban whites just start acting like rednecks and the tough ethnic whites in the Northeast, we don’t even have to do anything to improve the country, other than deporting illegals with a rap sheet and reducing legal immigration for the next decade or so. A somewhat multiracial society is not that big of a deal if you have the will to stay on top and keep things under control.
Posted inAmerica, Blacks, BLM|Comments Off on Steve Sailer: If the Latest Milwaukee Riot Isn’t Hillary’s Sister Souljah Moment, What Would be?
I wonder if churches would be less refugee friendly if there were more of these events.
NEWS: A far-right nationalist group that links itself to Pauline Hanson stormed a church service on Sunday dressed in mock Muslim attire and chanting anti-Islamic slogans, leaving some members of the congregation “deeply traumatised”.
The incident, on the NSW Central Coast, reflects the emboldened attitudes of anti-Islamic groups following the political rise of the One Nation leader, and has triggered calls for the new Parliament to retain the full strength of racial discrimination laws amid a new push for the repeal of section 18c.
About 10 Party for Freedom members on Sunday disrupted the morning sermon at the Gosford Anglican Church, which is widely known for its embrace of multiculturalism, and refugees and asylum-seekers.
Party for Freedom is an anti-Islam, anti-immigration party whose Facebook page features Senator Hanson as its profile picture.
The church is nationally renowned for a sign out the front that often bears messages critical of Australia’s hardline border protection policies, such as “Hell exists, and it’s on Nauru”.
Father Rod Bower said halfway through his sermon at around 9.30am, members of Party for Freedom, dressed in mock Muslim attire, burst into the church.
“Using a loud speaker starting to abuse me in particular for the work we do … they violated our sacred space,” Father Bower said.
“It was typical rhetoric from the extreme right, vilifying Muslims and multiculturalism as a whole.
Posted inAustralia, Islam|Comments Off on ‘Wake up, Aussies’: Far-right Pauline Hanson supporters dressed as Muslims storm church
Chaim Amalek writes: “Anyone remember the “Black Israelites” or “Black Hebrews”? These people have been standing on street corners in Manhattan (often around 34th and 8th Avenue) for decades, calling for the extermination of the white race and all white jews. And they are not the only ones out there calling for same. But the media would rather not touch them. Except that Trump is to blame.”
* “We blame Donald Trump for this . . . Trump and his drama has created Islamophobia.”
Is the press going to take this statement literally and fact-check to see if Trump did create islamophobia? When they learn that islamophobia, if it does exists, predates Donald Trump, will they then stop covering this murder and instead focus on the false statement made by Khairul Islam?
Of course not. But when Trump suggested Obama and Hillary created ISIS, the press acted as if he had suggested both had flown to Baghdad for the constitutional convention like Franklin and Jefferson a couple hundred years prior. Therefore, the only story to cover was not whether or not Obama and Hillary’s policies had led to ISIS, but that Trump flat out lied.
Of course Hillary said earlier this year that Donald Trump was ISIS’s number one recruiter. Evidently the way she stated this did not confuse the press into thinking that Trump had flown to Baghdad, interviewed for a sales job and then joined the ranks of ISIS where he later won first prize and the Cadillac El Dorado. No they assumed Hillary was using rhetoric like they assumed those accusing Bush of Katrina and Reagan of AIDs had done.
* A high percentage of 3rd Party candidate Evan McMullin’s tweets are about how wonderful Muslims are. I think he is trying to win the Muslim vote in this country, even though they make up less than 1 percent of American voters. They are not really an important voting bloc in this country, at least not yet. Our elites want to change that.
Evan McMullin sounds like a George W. Bush “Conservative” with all of his Muslims are so freaking peaceful and awesome tweets.
* I love it how people like “Khairul Islam, 33″ get to decide “what America’s about.”
* “WCBS 880’s Stephanie Colombini reported authorities are searching for a tan-skinned man in a dark polo shirt and shorts.”
Tanned-skin? Why, that sounds almost like “brown,” except of course as it stands suggests a white guy who spent too much time at the beach.
* Gee. I thought Islamaphobia was generated via 9/11, and the multiple atrocities committed by passionate, committed muslims around the world since then. Muslim gangs harassing Christians and Jews here seems like something that would bring matters to violence eventually. New York, in particular, features some real pieces of Muslim work:
* My Islamophobia is not Trump induced. It comes from living in an English city with a large Muslim minority and a grooming gang. You are prejudiced. I am postjudiced.
* I bet he wouldn’t let anybody named Joseph Goldstein tell him what Islam is about.
* I know from Law & Order that white men commit all the crime in NY. Probably a banker or a lawyer.
The first American Olympian to ever make a joke out of her fellow Muslims slaughtering the innocent. Historic! pic.twitter.com/AyZGc4uUaQ
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