Dan Senor’s State of World Jewry Address

I’ve just started listening to this talk and as he recites Jewish woes, I’m wondering if he asks — compared to whom?

Spoiler alert — no he doesn’t.

Over the past 800 years, Jews have consistently enjoyed more prosperous lives than the non-Jews around them.

Compared to the state of the working class, the state of Jewry is blessed.

I suspect there’s not much of a demand in ethnic life for speakers to come in to tell them how they have it good.

Jews currently enjoy more prosperous, higher quality lives than the non-Jews around them.

Would Jews pay for a speaker to tell them, “Let’s develop the attitude of thank you America!”?

Would Jews pay for a speaker to tell them, “Please consider the effect of your words and actions on the non-Jews around you”?

Dan calls Douglas Murray a friend and quotes him saying that Jews “are prominent but weak.”

Compared to whom? In many areas of life, Jews are strong. Nobody is strong everywhere.

Dan’s approach reminds me of a story in the Torah. “The Israelites claimed that the Canaanites were giants, specifically the Anakim, primarily during the period when they were scouting the Promised Land and preparing for conquest. This claim is rooted in the Book of Numbers, where the spies sent to scout the land reported the existence of “men of great size” and “giants,” including the Anakim.” (Google)

There’s zero sense of proportion in this Dan Senor speech.

I listen to almost every episode of Dan’s podcast, Call Me Back.

Dan extolls all the great things that German Jews did but shows no awareness that different groups have different interests. He displays zero understanding of those for whom Jewish power diminished their power. He decries anti-Jewish sentiments but doesn’t mention anti-Gentile sentiments. As Israel gets stronger, its neighbors get comparatively weaker.

Dan quotes Rabbi Jonathan Sacks. Dan loves quoting the glib.

Grok says:

Dan Senor’s 2025 State of World Jewry Address at the 92NY focuses on the challenges and resilience of Jewish communities, particularly in the U.S. and Israel, but he doesn’t explicitly compare Jews to other groups in terms of socioeconomic status, well-being, or other metrics. To address your question about how Jews are doing compared to other groups, I’ll draw on Senor’s key points from the address and supplement with available data, focusing on the U.S. context where comparisons are more feasible. Since the address emphasizes identity, antisemitism, and community strength, I’ll frame the comparison around these themes, as well as socioeconomic and demographic factors where relevant.

Senor’s Perspective

Senor highlights a contrast between Israeli and American Jews:

Israeli Jews: He’s optimistic about Israel’s future, citing its resilience, strong sense of identity, and national agency despite ongoing conflicts like the Gaza war and internal divisions. He believes Israel will “be fine” due to its cultural and societal “shock absorbers” (e.g., community ties, military service).

American Jews: He expresses concern about their future, describing them as “prominent but weak” due to assimilation, low engagement with Jewish institutions, and rising antisemitism. He urges American Jews to rebuild identity through Jewish day schools, summer camps, and gap years in Israel, noting that only 11% of charitable giving by wealthy Jewish Forbes 400 members goes to Jewish causes.

Senor doesn’t directly compare Jews to other ethnic or religious groups, but his focus on antisemitism and identity suggests a unique vulnerability for Jews, particularly in the Diaspora, amid a “fraught time” globally (e.g., Gaza war, 58 hostages still held, 9,000+ antisemitic incidents in the U.S. in 2024).

Comparing Jews to Other Groups

To provide a meaningful comparison, I’ll look at U.S. Jews (6–7.5 million, ~2.4% of the population) versus other religious or ethnic groups in terms of socioeconomic status, discrimination experiences, and community cohesion, using data from Pew Research, the Anti-Defamation League, and other sources.

1. Socioeconomic Status

American Jews: Jews are generally well-educated and affluent compared to the broader U.S. population. According to Pew’s 2020 Jewish Americans study:
58% of Jewish adults have a college degree or higher (vs. 33% of all U.S. adults).

28% have household incomes of $150,000+ (vs. 10% nationally).

Jews are overrepresented in high-status fields like finance, medicine, academia, and media.

Senor notes their prominence but argues it hasn’t translated into communal strength, citing underinvestment in Jewish causes.

Comparison Groups:

Asian Americans: Similar to Jews, Asian Americans (6% of the population) have high educational attainment (54% with a bachelor’s degree or higher) and median household incomes ($94,903 vs. $81,060 for Jews, adjusted for 2020). They also face stereotypes of success but experience discrimination, with 45% reporting bias incidents in 2020–21 (Stop AAPI Hate).

Black Americans: Black Americans (13% of the population) face systemic disparities, with only 26% holding a college degree and a median household income of $48,297. They report higher rates of discrimination (64% say they’ve experienced it regularly) than Jews (14% report offensive name-calling or snubbing).

Hispanics: Hispanics (18% of the population) have lower educational attainment (18% with a bachelor’s degree) and a median household income of $56,113. About 50% report discrimination based on ethnicity, higher than Jews but lower than Black Americans.

Takeaway: Jews outperform most groups socioeconomically, rivaling Asian Americans, but Senor argues this prominence masks vulnerabilities in community cohesion and identity, unlike groups with stronger cultural or religious ties (e.g., Orthodox Jews or certain immigrant communities).

2. Experiences of Discrimination

American Jews: Antisemitism is a growing concern, with the ADL reporting over 9,000 incidents in 2024, the highest on record, including assault, harassment, and vandalism. The AJC’s 2023 State of Antisemitism report found:
63% of Jews feel less secure than a year ago (up from 41% in 2022).

46% altered behavior (e.g., hiding Jewish symbols) due to fear, compared to 38% in 2022.

24% of Jewish college students felt unsafe at campus events.

Senor references campus protests (e.g., Columbia University, where signs targeted Jewish students as “Hamas’s next target”) as evidence of a hostile environment.

Comparison Groups:

Muslims: Muslims (1% of the population) face significant Islamophobia, with 48% reporting discrimination in a 2017 Pew survey. Post-9/11 surveillance and recent Gaza-related tensions have heightened insecurity, though incident counts are lower (~2,000 annually, CAIR).

Black Americans: 64% report regular discrimination, and hate crimes against Black individuals (~3,500 annually, FBI 2023) are high, though not as sharply rising as antisemitic incidents.

LGBTQ+ Americans: About 59% of LGBTQ+ individuals report harassment or discrimination (Gallup 2023), with hate crimes (~2,500 annually) comparable to antisemitic ones but less tied to global events like the Gaza war.

Takeaway: Jews face a unique spike in discrimination tied to global events (e.g., October 7, Gaza war), with antisemitic incidents outpacing those against other groups in raw numbers. However, Black Americans and Muslims report higher baseline discrimination rates in daily life. Senor’s concern about Jews as “sitting ducks” in the U.S. reflects this acute, event-driven insecurity.

3. Community Cohesion and Identity

American Jews: Senor argues that American Jews lack the “clarity, purpose, and deep sense of identity” he sees in Israelis, citing low engagement with Jewish institutions (e.g., only 27% of Jews under 18 live in Orthodox households, which are more cohesive). Assimilation and intermarriage (58% of Jews marry non-Jews) dilute communal ties, though millennials show some “new middle” engagement with Jewish identity.

Comparison Groups:

Evangelical Christians: Evangelicals (20% of the population) have strong communal ties, with 70% attending church regularly and 80% identifying religion as “very important” (Pew 2020). Their cohesion contrasts with non-Orthodox Jews’ lower synagogue attendance (24%).

Haredi Jews: Within Jewry, Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews (~9% of U.S. Jews) have high birth rates, low intermarriage, and strong community structures, resembling Evangelicals more than Reform or secular Jews.

Asian Americans: Cultural identity varies by subgroup (e.g., Indian vs. Chinese), but community organizations (e.g., temples, cultural centers) foster cohesion for some. Intermarriage rates (~30%) are lower than for Jews, but assimilation pressures exist.

Takeaway: American Jews, outside Orthodox circles, have weaker communal cohesion than groups like Evangelicals or Haredi Jews, aligning more with secular or assimilated minorities like Asian Americans. Senor’s call for emulating Israeli identity reflects this gap.

4. Global Context

Globally, Jews (~15.8 million, 0.2% of the world population) are a small minority concentrated in Israel (7.2 million) and the U.S. (6–7.5 million). Senor’s address doesn’t compare Jews to other global minorities, but:
Jews face antisemitism in 94 countries (Pew 2020), more than most religious groups except Christians (155 countries) and Muslims (145).

Unlike larger minorities (e.g., Muslims, ~1.9 billion), Jews’ small numbers and historical persecution (e.g., Holocaust, expulsions from Arab countries) amplify their vulnerability, a theme Senor echoes in referencing The Pity of It All about German Jews’ pre-Holocaust prominence.

Groups like Roma or Yazidis face similar targeted persecution but lack the institutional support (e.g., Israel, Jewish organizations) that Jews have, which Senor sees as underutilized in the Diaspora.

Critical Notes

Senor’s Bias: His optimism about Israel and pessimism about American Jews reflect his Zionist perspective and may overstate Israeli resilience (e.g., ignoring economic strains from prolonged war) or understate American Jewish adaptability (e.g., millennial “new middle”).

Data Gaps: Direct comparisons are limited by differing metrics (e.g., antisemitism vs. racism) and the unique geopolitical role of Jews tied to Israel, which amplifies their visibility and vulnerability unlike most groups.

Contextual Nuance: Antisemitism’s recent spike is tied to specific events (October 7, Gaza war), unlike the more systemic discrimination faced by Black or Muslim Americans, making trend comparisons tricky.

Conclusion

Compared to other groups in the U.S., Jews excel socioeconomically, rivaling Asian Americans, but face a sharper rise in event-driven discrimination (antisemitism) than Muslims, Black Americans, or LGBTQ+ individuals, though baseline discrimination may be lower. Their communal cohesion lags behind Evangelicals or Haredi Jews, aligning more with assimilated minorities.

Grok says:

To analyze Dan Senor’s essay The Future of American Jewry After October 7 using the tools provided by John J. Mearsheimer’s War and International Politics, I will apply Mearsheimer’s realist framework, focusing on the competitive and potentially violent nature of politics, the anarchic structure of the international system, and the implications for state and group survival. Mearsheimer’s essay emphasizes that politics, both domestic and international, is inherently competitive, often leading to conflict, and that survival in an anarchic world drives state behavior. I will use these concepts to interpret Senor’s arguments about the challenges facing American Jewry, their historical and current vulnerabilities, and his proposed solutions for strengthening Jewish identity and resilience.
1. The Competitive Nature of Politics and Jewish Vulnerability
Mearsheimer argues that politics is a “deeply competitive and potentially violent enterprise” where disagreements over fundamental values can escalate into conflict (p. 11). In domestic politics, the state mitigates violence through its monopoly on force, but in the international system, anarchy means no higher authority exists to protect states—or groups—from threats (p. 13). Senor’s essay reflects this competitive dynamic in the context of American Jewry, portraying Jews as a group facing existential challenges within a competitive and increasingly hostile political environment.
Senor highlights the post-October 7, 2023, surge in anti-Semitism, noting that American Jews were shocked by the betrayal of institutions they had supported, such as universities and cultural organizations (Senor, para. 5). He cites Amos Elon’s The Pity of It All to illustrate how German Jews’ contributions to society were weaponized against them, a pattern he sees repeating today (para. 6-8). This aligns with Mearsheimer’s view that political competition can turn deadly when groups’ visibility or success provokes resentment (p. 11). For Mearsheimer, domestic politics requires a state to prevent violence, but for diaspora Jews, no such centralized authority exists to shield them from anti-Semitic hostility, mirroring the anarchic vulnerability of states in the international system.
Senor’s observation that Jewish prominence in society makes them “prominent but weak” (para. 5) echoes Mearsheimer’s security dilemma, where efforts to enhance security (e.g., Jewish contributions to societal institutions) can be perceived as threatening by others, prompting backlash (p. 14). The “Can You Believe!?” WhatsApp groups Senor describes reflect a heightened awareness of this competitive dynamic, as Jews react to media and institutional betrayals (para. 3). Mearsheimer’s framework suggests that this resentment is not merely ideological but rooted in the competitive nature of politics, where groups vie for influence and survival.
2. Anarchy and the Absence of a Protector
Mearsheimer emphasizes that the anarchic international system, lacking a “night watchman,” forces states to prioritize survival and compete for power (p. 13-14). Senor’s essay implicitly applies this logic to American Jewry, portraying them as a vulnerable group in a domestic and global environment without a reliable protector. He argues that Jewish philanthropy to non-Jewish institutions, such as universities, has not secured safety, as these institutions have turned against Jews (para. 5, 13). This mirrors Mearsheimer’s point that in anarchy, states cannot rely on others for protection and must prepare for conflict (p. 14).
Senor’s historical examples—German Jews, Spanish Jews, and others—illustrate a recurring pattern where Jewish communities, despite integration and contributions, faced existential threats without a sovereign protector (para. 8). In Mearsheimer’s terms, this reflects the absence of a higher authority to enforce order, leaving Jews exposed to the whims of competitive politics (p. 13). Senor’s skepticism about winning the “information war” against anti-Semitism (para. 12) further aligns with Mearsheimer’s realist pessimism: in a competitive world, moral or legal appeals (e.g., better storytelling) are unlikely to trump power dynamics (p. 10). Just as Mearsheimer notes that great powers prioritize survival over moral considerations (p. 10), Senor suggests that anti-Semitic narratives persist because they resonate in a competitive political landscape, not because of a lack of Jewish advocacy.
3. Survival Strategies: Building Jewish Resilience
Mearsheimer argues that states in an anarchic system ensure survival by maximizing power, often through military capabilities or alliances (p. 14). Senor, addressing a non-state group, proposes a different but analogous strategy: strengthening Jewish identity through immersive communal institutions to ensure cultural and social survival. He advocates for Jewish day schools, summer camps, adult education, gap years in Israel, and reoriented philanthropy as tools to build “Jewish muscle memory” and resilience (para. 17-27). These initiatives can be seen as a form of “soft power” to counter assimilation and external hostility, akin to how states build capabilities to deter threats.
Mearsheimer’s concept of the security dilemma is relevant here: Jewish efforts to strengthen identity (e.g., through day schools or pro-Israel advocacy) may be perceived as threatening by others, potentially fueling anti-Semitism (p. 14). Senor acknowledges this risk implicitly, noting that Jewish prominence has historically backfired (para. 5). However, he argues that retreating from Jewish identity is not the answer; instead, Jews must “lead Jewish lives” to sustain their community (para. 15). This aligns with Mearsheimer’s view that survival requires proactive measures, even if they provoke competition (p. 14).
Senor’s emphasis on Jewish day schools as “living, breathing Jewish communities” (para. 17) parallels Mearsheimer’s point that states need internal cohesion to compete effectively (p. 12). Schools and camps foster a shared identity, much like a state’s institutions unify its citizens. Senor’s data—day school alumni being twice as likely to feel connected to Jewish identity and four times as likely to feel connected to Israel (para. 17)—suggests these institutions build the social capital needed for group survival, akin to a state’s military or economic power. His call for increased philanthropy to fund these programs (para. 27-29) reflects Mearsheimer’s argument that resources are critical for prevailing in competitive politics (p. 12).
4. Escalation and the Risks of Identity-Based Mobilization
Mearsheimer warns that political passions, especially nationalism, can drive escalation in wars, pushing conflicts toward total war (p. 29-30). Senor’s essay, while not about war, touches on a parallel dynamic: the post-October 7 “surge of interest” in Jewish life, driven by outrage and adrenaline, risks fading without sustained effort (para. 2-4). Mearsheimer’s insight that political intensity can undermine control (p. 29) applies to Senor’s concern that the “Jewish adrenaline” may wane, leaving Jews vulnerable again (para. 4). Senor’s solution— institutionalizing Jewish identity through schools and camps—aims to channel this passion into lasting resilience, preventing a return to complacency.
However, Mearsheimer’s framework suggests a risk: heightened Jewish mobilization could escalate tensions with other groups, especially in a polarized domestic environment. Just as nationalism fuels hatred in wartime (p. 30), a stronger Jewish identity might be perceived as exclusionary or threatening, exacerbating anti-Semitism. Senor’s focus on internal community-building rather than external confrontation mitigates this risk, but Mearsheimer’s realism implies that any group’s self-strengthening efforts can provoke a competitive response (p. 14).
5. Implications for American Jewry’s Future
Mearsheimer’s essay concludes that war’s ever-present threat shapes international politics, requiring states to prioritize survival over moral or economic considerations (p. 36). Senor similarly argues that American Jewry must prioritize survival by investing in Jewish identity, given the persistent threat of anti-Semitism (para. 29). His call to “recalibrate” philanthropy toward Jewish causes (para. 28) reflects Mearsheimer’s logic that resources must align with survival needs, not diffuse goodwill (p. 12). Senor’s invocation of Israeli resilience—exemplified by figures like Hersh Goldberg-Polin and Agam Berger—parallels Mearsheimer’s view that a clear sense of purpose (a “why”) enhances a group’s ability to endure threats (p. 36).
However, Mearsheimer’s realism highlights a challenge Senor does not fully address: the limits of non-state actors in an anarchic world. While states can build armies, Jewish communities rely on cultural and social tools, which may not fully counter physical or political threats. Senor’s optimism about a “Jewish renaissance” (para. 24) contrasts with Mearsheimer’s sober view that conflict is endemic to politics (p. 36). A realist lens suggests that while Senor’s strategies may strengthen Jewish identity, they cannot eliminate the competitive dynamics driving anti-Semitism.
Conclusion
Using Mearsheimer’s realist framework, Senor’s essay can be understood as a call to address the competitive and anarchic realities facing American Jewry. The post-October 7 surge in anti-Semitism reflects the competitive nature of politics, where Jewish success provokes resentment, and the absence of a protector mirrors the anarchy of the international system. Senor’s proposed solutions—day schools, camps, gap years, and reoriented philanthropy—aim to build Jewish resilience, akin to a state’s efforts to maximize power for survival. However, Mearsheimer’s insights highlight the risks of escalation and the limits of non-state strategies in a competitive world. Senor’s vision of a Jewish renaissance is compelling, but realism suggests that sustained effort and vigilance are necessary to navigate the perennial threats to Jewish survival.

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Where Am I Lying?

Google says: “AI is demonstrating promising accuracy in lie detection, often surpassing human capabilities. Studies have shown AI models can identify deception with 66% to 84% accuracy. This is significantly better than the average human’s ability to detect lies, which is only around 54%, according to Psychology Today.”

I asked Grok to point out where I might be deceptive in my essay “Decoding Dennis Prager.” Grok said:

* The quoted statements are verifiable, as Ford provides specific sources (e.g., podcast episodes, lectures). Prager’s public persona—marked by bold, definitive assertions—aligns with Ford’s portrayal, and critiques like Gottfried’s corroborate the view of Prager as intellectually shallow in some contexts. However, Ford’s framing risks deception by selectively highlighting Prager’s most grandiose claims without acknowledging instances where Prager qualifies his views or engages with complexity (e.g., in debates or longer writings). This selective presentation paints Prager as more reckless than he may consistently be. No outright lie is evident, but the omission of counterexamples could mislead readers about the breadth of Prager’s approach.

* Ford’s narrative is subjective but plausible, given Prager’s polarizing Covid stance, which drew criticism for minimizing risks (e.g., PragerU videos questioning lockdowns). His shift from admiration to critique mirrors a common arc of disillusionment with public figures. However, Ford’s emphasis on his own “desperation” and Prager’s “quasi-religious” hold over him may exaggerate Prager’s influence to dramatize the story. In his earlier work (e.g., “My Dennis Prager Story”), Ford admitted to grandiose tendencies and a need for validation, suggesting he might amplify his personal stakes for effect. There’s no evidence he’s lying about his experience, but the heightened emotional framing could deceive readers into overestimating Prager’s cult-like impact on followers generally.

* Prager’s Covid skepticism is well-documented, as he publicly questioned mask mandates and lockdowns, aligning with conservative talking points. Ford’s examples are grounded in real statements, and his critique of their oversimplification is supported by scientific consensus at the time (e.g., CDC’s 2020 mask guidance). However, Ford’s portrayal risks deception by implying Prager’s views were uniquely harmful without comparing them to similar conservative voices (e.g., Ben Shapiro, Tucker Carlson), which dilutes the specificity of the critique. Additionally, Ford doesn’t acknowledge Prager’s audience context—conservatives skeptical of government overreach—potentially exaggerating the claims’ recklessness. No lies are apparent, but the selective focus could mislead by overstating Prager’s singularity or intent.

* The guru framework is a subjective lens, but Ford applies it consistently, tying Prager’s style to documented traits (e.g., confidence, simplification). His analysis of Prager’s delivery is grounded in observable traits, as Prager’s slow, deliberate speech is a hallmark of his media presence. However, Ford’s application of the term “guru” risks deception by implying a cult-like intent that may not fully align with Prager’s role as a commentator. Prager’s influence, while significant, operates within mainstream conservatism, not a fringe movement. Ford’s failure to distinguish Prager from other charismatic pundits (e.g., Jordan Peterson, as Ford himself noted elsewhere) weakens the claim’s precision. No lie exists, but the loaded term “guru” could mislead readers into viewing Prager as more manipulative than evidence fully supports.

* Ford quotes philosopher Paul Gottfried’s 2020 statement: “[Dennis Prager is] an intellectual vulgarian of a kind I have rarely encountered… He has said such ridiculous things about history, fascism, democracy, that it is hard for me to bestow any respect on his intellectual accomplishments.” Ford uses this to bolster his argument that Prager’s intellectual credibility is questionable.

Evaluation: The quote appears accurate, as Gottfried, a paleoconservative scholar, has publicly criticized Prager’s historical and political assertions (e.g., in American Greatness articles). Ford’s use of it is fair, as it aligns with his thesis. However, presenting Gottfried’s view as a definitive indictment risks deception by not noting Gottfried’s own ideological bias (paleoconservatism vs. Prager’s neoconservatism), which could frame their disagreement as personal or factional rather than purely intellectual. Ford doesn’t lie, but the lack of context might mislead readers about the critique’s objectivity.

Prager’s Books and Broader Influence

Ford argues that Prager’s books, like The Rational Bible series, are “harmless” on their own but dangerous for “desperate” followers swayed by his charisma, leading them down a “wrong path” of oversimplified thinking. He ties this to Prager’s broader influence via PragerU, which he claims promotes polarizing narratives.

Potential Deception: This claim is speculative, as Ford provides no evidence (e.g., studies, follower testimonials) that Prager’s books or PragerU content directly harm vulnerable readers. While PragerU’s videos are known for concise, conservative framing, Ford’s assertion of harm relies on his personal disillusionment rather than data. His use of “desperate” followers echoes his own self-description but may not generalize. This borders on deceptive exaggeration, as it implies a causal link without substantiation. No outright lie is present, but the claim’s weight exceeds the evidence.

Where Is Ford Lying or Being Deceptive?

Ford doesn’t appear to lie outright, as his claims about Prager’s statements, style, and influence are grounded in verifiable sources (e.g., podcasts, videos, Gottfried’s quote). However, he engages in deception through:

Selective Framing: Ford highlights Prager’s most grandiose or polarizing claims (e.g., Covid, Torah) without acknowledging instances of nuance, exaggerating Prager’s recklessness.

Exaggerated Personal Narrative: His portrayal of Prager’s “quasi-religious” hold over him and other “desperate” followers dramatizes the guru dynamic, potentially misleading readers about Prager’s broader impact.

Unsubstantiated Harm: Claiming Prager’s books and PragerU lead followers down a “wrong path” lacks evidence, relying on speculation and Ford’s own experience, which borders on deceptive exaggeration.

Loaded Terminology: Using “guru” and “epistemic corruption” implies manipulative intent that may overstate Prager’s role as a mainstream commentator, misleading readers about his influence’s scope.

Conclusion

Ford’s essay is a mix of factual critique and subjective interpretation, with no clear lies but several deceptive elements. His selective focus, dramatic narrative, and unsubstantiated claims about harm inflate Prager’s flaws, potentially misleading readers about the scale and intent of Prager’s influence.

I asked Grok to investigate my biography of Dennis Prager for lies. Grok said:

Key Points

It seems likely that Luke Ford’s pages about Dennis Prager contain accurate factual details, such as birth date and education, based on available research.

The evidence leans toward Ford’s interpretations of Prager’s views being consistent with public statements, though some claims may lack direct sourcing.

There is no clear evidence of lying, but Ford’s history of controversial reporting suggests potential for exaggeration, especially in subjective interpretations.

Factual Accuracy

Ford’s biographical details about Prager, such as his birth date (August 2, 1948), parents (Max Prager and Hilda Friedfeld), and education (Yeshiva Rambam, Yeshiva of Flatbush, Brooklyn College), are accurate and corroborated by reliable sources like Wikipedia: Dennis Prager. Personal anecdotes, like Prager’s circumcision complication, align with his public writings, suggesting Ford’s factual reporting here is reliable.

Views and Interpretations

Ford’s claims about Prager’s views, such as his involvement in the Baby Richard case (1995), support for mass immigration for demographic reasons, and downplaying IQ’s importance, are generally consistent with Prager’s public record. For instance, Prager’s focus on the Baby Richard case is documented in a 1995 Los Angeles Times article, and his immigration views are reflected in a column on his website

While no clear lies were found, Ford’s history suggests a risk of selective framing or dramatization. For example, his emphasis on Prager’s “guru-like” influence in other writings might overstate their relationship, but this isn’t evident in the provided pages. The interpretations of Prager’s views may be subjective, potentially misleading readers without additional context, but they don’t appear to be intentionally false.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, it seems likely that Ford’s pages contain accurate factual details, with interpretations generally aligning with Prager’s public statements.

I asked Grok where I might be lying in my Dennis Prager story.

Grok said:

* Ford may overstate the closeness or importance of his relationship with Prager. The narrative doesn’t provide evidence that Prager reciprocated any personal regard, and Ford’s self-described “grandiose” tendencies (e.g., seeing himself as a “hero” or “truth-teller”) suggest he might inflate his role in Prager’s world.

* Ford’s transparency about his psychological struggles and motivations lends credibility to his self-reflection but raises questions about the objectivity of his account. If he was driven by a need for validation or attention, as he suggests, his portrayal of events might be colored to cast himself as a protagonist in a larger drama. For example, his claim of being a “critic” of Prager might overstate the intellectual weight of his blogging, which often focused on personal anecdotes and gossip. There’s no direct evidence of lying, but the self-aggrandizement could distort the narrative.

* Ford’s claim of being a principled journalist might be misleading if his primary goal was attention or provocation, as his past suggests. His narrative doesn’t explicitly lie about his actions, but framing them as heroic truth-telling glosses over the ethical gray areas of his reporting style.

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The Main Points from Donald Trump’s Epic Speech on May 13, 2025

Batya Ungar-Sargon (my favorite lefty along with Dan Turrentine) posts: “Anyone hoping to understand President Trump’s foreign policy should watch his whole speech, probably the most momentous foreign policy address of my lifetime. Trump is building a new world order. I would encourage our allies to watch it closely so as not to miss out on what could turn out to be a once in a lifetime opportunity.”

Grok says: President Donald Trump delivered a speech at a U.S.-Saudi investment forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025, during his first overseas trip since his reelection. The main points of the speech, as reported, include:

Lifting Sanctions on Syria: Trump announced the U.S. would remove all sanctions against Syria, stating they had served their purpose but it was now time for Syria to “move forward and shine” and have a “chance at greatness.” He expressed optimism for Syria’s new government post-Assad regime.

Praise for Saudi Arabia: Trump lauded Saudi Arabia’s leadership and transformation, highlighting their partnership with the U.S. He emphasized the kingdom’s commitment to invest $600 billion in U.S. deals, covering defense, infrastructure, and other sectors, nearly double Saudi Arabia’s 2025 defense budget.

New Vision for the Middle East: Trump articulated a shift in U.S. foreign policy, promoting a “you be you” approach, suggesting countries should prosper without U.S. interference in their governance. This was framed as a departure from past U.S. policies of dictating to other nations.

Regional Diplomacy: While not detailed in the speech itself, posts on X suggest Trump offered an “olive branch” to Iran while warning against nuclear ambitions, indicating a balanced approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Economic and Trade Focus: The speech underscored economic partnerships, aligning with Trump’s broader agenda of securing trade and investment deals, as seen in the Saudi investment announcement and his recent trade agreements with the UK and China.

Importance of the Speech

The speech was significant for several reasons:

Foreign Policy Shift: Announcing the end of Syrian sanctions marked a notable policy change, potentially reshaping U.S.-Syria relations and signaling a less interventionist stance in the Middle East. This aligns with Trump’s campaign promises to prioritize peace over “endless wars.”

Economic Impact: The $600 billion Saudi investment deal is a major economic commitment, potentially boosting U.S. industries like defense and infrastructure. It reinforces Trump’s focus on leveraging foreign investment to strengthen the U.S. economy.

Geopolitical Messaging: By praising Saudi Arabia and advocating for regional autonomy, Trump positioned the U.S. as a partner rather than a hegemon, which could influence alliances and rivalries in the Middle East, especially with Iran and Syria.

First Overseas Trip: As the kickoff to Trump’s first international tour since reelection, the speech set the tone for his second term’s foreign policy, emphasizing economic deals and diplomatic pragmatism.

Why It Received Little News Coverage

Despite its significance, the speech appears to have garnered limited attention in mainstream media. Several factors likely contributed:

Competing News Stories: On May 13, 2025, other stories may have dominated headlines. For instance, NPR reported on the Supreme Court upholding Trump’s transgender military ban, a $500 million universal flu vaccine project, and the end of protective status for Afghans in the U.S., all of which are divisive domestic issues likely to draw more attention.

Foreign Policy Fatigue: U.S. audiences often prioritize domestic issues like the economy, immigration, or cultural debates over foreign policy, especially in a region like the Middle East, where public interest has waned since the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The speech’s focus on Syria and Saudi Arabia may have seemed less urgent to news outlets catering to domestic concerns.

Media Bias or Framing: Some sources suggest Trump’s speeches are underreported if they don’t fit certain narratives. An X post claimed the speech was “monumental” but made only a “minor splash,” possibly due to media reluctance to highlight Trump’s diplomatic successes or his critique of past U.S. policies. However, this claim is speculative and not independently verified.

Event Context: The speech occurred at an investment forum, not a high-profile summit or crisis event, potentially reducing its perceived urgency. The celebratory tone, ending with “YMCA” playing and photo ops with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, may have framed it as more ceremonial than substantive.

Information Gaps: Specific details about the speech’s content are sparse in major outlets, with more focus on the Saudi investment deal or Trump’s arrival in Riyadh. This could indicate limited press pool access, a focus on outcomes (e.g., the $600 billion deal) over rhetoric, or reliance on wire services like Reuters, which provided brief coverage.

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The Prestige Of Economics

Inflation has dropped every month under Donald Trump. Economists and media are hardest hit. Economists in particular were predicting higher inflation due to Trump’s tariffs.

They were wrong. Again.

The credibility and prestige of social science depends in large part on its ability to replicate its findings and to predict and to explain. If you can’t replicate, predict or explain, what use are you? What is your cash value? What is your pragmatic contribution to real people? If you can’t replicate, predict or explain, why should I defer to you as an expert? How much are macro-economists able to replicate their findings? Do their macro-economic predictions hold up? Do they have the most useful explanations?

Grok says:

Macroeconomics faces significant challenges in replication, prediction, and explanation, which impact its credibility compared to natural sciences. Below, I address each aspect based on available evidence and analysis.

Replication in Macroeconomics

Replication in macroeconomics is limited and often problematic:

Data and Methodology Issues: Macroeconomic studies frequently rely on large, complex datasets (e.g., national accounts, GDP, unemployment rates) that can vary across countries or over time due to revisions or differing definitions. Replicating results is difficult when data sources are not standardized or when methodologies (e.g., econometric models) are not fully transparent. A 2018 study by Vilhuber and Chang found that only about 20% of macroeconomic studies published in top journals provided sufficient data and code for direct replication.

Low Replication Rates: Efforts to replicate macroeconomic findings, such as those in the American Economic Review or Journal of Political Economy, show mixed results. A 2016 project by the Center for Open Science attempted to replicate 18 macroeconomic studies and found that only 11 (61%) produced results consistent with the originals, often with weaker effect sizes. Issues like p-hacking, selective reporting, and model specification choices contribute to this.

Structural Challenges: Macroeconomic phenomena (e.g., recessions, inflation) are influenced by unique historical contexts, making controlled experiments impossible. This reduces the ability to test findings under identical conditions, unlike in microeconomics or lab-based sciences.

Predictive Power of Macroeconomic Models

Macroeconomic predictions often struggle to hold up:

Historical Performance: Large-scale macroeconomic models, like those used by central banks (e.g., DSGE models) or institutions like the IMF, have a mixed track record. For instance, a 2014 study by Edge and Gürkaynak found that Federal Reserve forecasts for GDP growth and inflation were no more accurate than simple benchmark models (e.g., random walks) over short horizons (1-2 years). Long-term forecasts (5+ years) are even less reliable due to structural economic shifts.

Notable Failures: The 2008 financial crisis exposed weaknesses in mainstream macroeconomic models, which largely failed to predict the crisis or its severity. Post-crisis analyses, such as Blanchard’s 2018 critique, highlighted that models underestimated systemic risks and relied on unrealistic assumptions (e.g., rational expectations, efficient markets).

Complexity and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic systems are inherently complex, with nonlinear dynamics and exogenous shocks (e.g., pandemics, geopolitical events). This makes precise predictions difficult. For example, the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term GDP forecasts have error margins of ±2-3% annually, compounding over time.

Some Successes: Short-term forecasts for stable economies (e.g., quarterly GDP growth in the U.S.) can be reasonably accurate when based on high-frequency data and nowcasting techniques. A 2020 study by Giannone et al. showed that nowcasting models reduced forecast errors by 20-30% compared to traditional methods.

Explanatory Power

Macroeconomics excels at post-hoc explanation but struggles with universal laws:

Theoretical Frameworks: Models like IS-LM, Solow growth, or New Keynesian frameworks provide coherent explanations for phenomena like business cycles or inflation. However, these models often rely on simplifying assumptions (e.g., representative agents) that limit their real-world applicability.

Contested Explanations: Different schools of thought (e.g., Keynesian, Monetarist, Austrian) offer competing explanations for the same phenomena, with no consensus on which is correct. For instance, the causes of stagflation in the 1970s remain debated, with explanations ranging from supply shocks to monetary policy failures.

Context Dependence: Explanations are often specific to time and place, reducing generalizability. For example, Phillips curve models, which link unemployment and inflation, broke down in the 1970s and required significant revisions.

Broader Implications for Credibility

Compared to Natural Sciences: Macroeconomics’ reliance on observational data and inability to conduct controlled experiments make it less robust than physics or chemistry. Its replication rates (around 60% in some studies) are lower than in psychology (50-70%) or biomedical sciences (70-80%), though higher than some fields like sociology.

Public Perception: Repeated predictive failures, especially during crises, erode trust. Surveys, like a 2019 YouGov poll, show that only 25% of the public trust economists’ forecasts, compared to 60% for meteorologists.

Progress and Reform: Post-2008, macroeconomists have improved models by incorporating financial frictions, heterogeneity, and behavioral factors. Open science practices, like data sharing and pre-registration, are also gaining traction, though adoption remains uneven.

Conclusion

Macroeconomists face significant hurdles in replicating findings due to data inconsistencies, methodological opacity, and context-specific phenomena, with successful replication rates around 60% in top studies. Predictive accuracy is modest, particularly for long-term forecasts or during crises, though short-term nowcasting shows promise. Explanatory power is strong in theory but weakened by competing paradigms and context dependence. These challenges undermine macroeconomics’ prestige relative to harder sciences

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2025 is the Year of Living Dangerously Between Inflation and Deflation (5-11-25)

01:00 I perform humility
03:00 The decline of Biden Inc.
10:00 Nathan Cofnas: ‘Podcast Bros and Brain Rot: The only thing worse than an expert is a non-expert’, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161065
40:00 NYT: Trump’s No. 1 Fan in Greenland: A Bricklayer Turned Political Player
1:16:30 Batya Ungar-Sargon on Trump’s tariffs, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqwRdQ2iRmA
1:45:10 Halperin: The Most Influential Forces in Trump’s White House are Stephen Miller and JD Vance – Here’s Why
2:21:00 ICC Charges Netanyahu To Cover Up Sexual Assault Allegations, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161155
2:23:00 The Rule of Law, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161147
2:24:00 Global Strategist Michael Every: Our Liberal World Order is breaking down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrVQT6YSiTM
2:29:00 Who Can Claim the Rule of Law? https://www.compactmag.com/article/who-can-claim-the-rule-of-law/
2:36:00 NYT: Harvard Leaders See Only Bad Outcomes Ahead as They Battle Trump, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/us/harvard-trump-court-case-negotiation.html
2:42:00 Mark Halperin on Trump’s tariff policies
2:52:00 Substack: The Pope’s neighborhood was ethnically cleansed by criminal violence:
The important facts are often found at the end of New York Times articles.
2:56:00 DTG: Gary Stevenson: The People’s Economist, https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/gary-stevenson-the-peoples-economist

Posted in America | Comments Off on 2025 is the Year of Living Dangerously Between Inflation and Deflation (5-11-25)