…he’s made the old institutions of movement conservatism, think tanks and magazines, even Fox News, seem superannuated or irrelevant while presiding over a transition to the new forms forged in imitation of his success — the world where podcasters and influencers and online celebrities set the terms of conservative debate, where political allegiances are inseparable from personal feuds and grievances.
But if all this means that Trump is now much more significant and transformative than a disjunctive figure like Carter, he still doesn’t quite match Skowronek’s description of “reconstructive” presidents, figures like Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt who gave a new political era its full shape. For one thing, Trump is not especially popular, and his party doesn’t seem well positioned to achieve the decade-plus of dominance that we associate with the Reagan and New Deal coalitions. A broad right-of-center coalition was visible immediately after Trump’s defeat of Kamala Harris, but it’s been receding for the past year as the administration has alienated non-MAGA voters.
For another, the new nationalist era is still defined primarily negatively, in terms of things that probably won’t return to Republican politics any time soon: the nation-building efforts of George W. Bush, the immigration amnesty of the Reagan era, the sweeping changes to entitlements pushed by Paul Ryan, the buttoned-up moralism of Pence. In terms of a positive agenda, there are a lot of very different ways that the Republican Party of 2028 or 2032 could be nationalist, and many of the fiercest battles inside the Trump coalition — especially the great influencer war that broke out after Charlie Kirk’s assassination — reflect fundamental divisions over what, exactly, a nationalist right should want.
Ross Douthat’s questions center on the unresolved identity of the American right. He describes a movement that has traded its old, stable Victorian architecture for a series of gaudy, competing additions. While Trump acts as the developer of this new estate, he has not yet finished the construction. The answers to Douthat’s queries lie in the brewing conflicts within the current administration and the jockeying for the 2028 succession.
Foreign Policy: Isolationist, Realist, or Imperialist?
The “Donroe Doctrine” has become the primary answer to this question. Since taking office for his second term, Trump has shifted the American gaze toward the Western Hemisphere with a focus that critics call neo-imperialist. The military raid in Venezuela to oust Nicolás Maduro and the continued pressure on Denmark regarding Greenland show a pivot away from global “nation-building” toward regional dominance.
While the isolationist wing, represented by figures like Tucker Carlson, remains vocal, the administration’s actual policy has been more interventionist in our own backyard. This suggests the future nationalist right will likely settle on a “sphere of influence” model: withdrawing from Europe and the Middle East while asserting unilateral power over the Americas to secure resources and control migration.
Economic Policy: Tech Right or Industrial Solidarity?
The “influencer war” Douthat references, particularly after the assassination of Charlie Kirk in September 2025, exposed the deep rift in Republican economics. On one side, the tech right—led by figures like Elon Musk—pushes for a future of artificial intelligence and high-skill H-1B visas. On the other, the traditional populists like Steve Bannon view this as “crony capitalism” that betrays the American worker.
The administration currently balances these by using tariffs as a blunt tool for negotiation rather than a permanent wall. However, the internal contradictions are high. The likely answer is that the movement will remain cronyist, favoring specific “national champions” in tech and energy rather than adopting a broad, solidaristic industrial policy that benefits the entire working class.
The concept of “status opening” captures the core of Trump’s domestic agenda because it addresses the gatekeeping mechanisms of the credentialed elite. By moving to dismantle the “paper ceiling,” the administration attempts to replace institutional prestige with a new, decentralized meritocracy. This strategy operates on two tracks: an aggressive push for artificial intelligence to bypass bureaucratic labor and a systematic hostility toward traditional professional credentials.
The administration views AI as the ultimate “great equalizer” that can strip power from the professional-managerial class. President Trump’s “America’s AI Action Plan,” released in July 2025, frames AI as a tool to automate tasks that previously required expensive, university-certified specialists. By signing Executive Order 14179 and the subsequent December 2025 order to preempt state-level AI regulations, the White House is clearing a path for rapid AI integration across the economy.
The intent is to make high-level productivity available to those without elite degrees. If a small business owner can use a proprietary LLM to handle complex legal compliance or medical diagnostic tasks—areas traditionally guarded by high-status guilds—the “status” of the JD or the MD begins to erode. This is why the administration fights for a “single federal standard” for AI; they want to prevent states like California or New York from creating “guardrails” that they believe are actually just protectionist measures for the credentialed class.
The second half of the “status opening” is a direct assault on the necessity of a college degree. In early 2025, Trump issued Executive Order 14173, “Restoring Equality of Opportunity and Meritocracy,” which effectively directs federal agencies and contractors to ignore “disparate impact” theories. This is a technical way of saying the government will no longer punish companies for using merit-based tests that might favor certain groups over others.
Beyond the federal workforce, the Department of Labor’s “America’s Talent Strategy” explicitly targets occupational licensing.
The administration is pushing states to eliminate or streamline licenses for hundreds of middle-class jobs, arguing these rules are “unnecessary barriers” that block worker mobility.
The October 2025 “Ensuring Continued Accountability in Federal Hiring” order further shifted the government toward skill-based assessments rather than degree requirements.
Proposed 2026 rulemakings seek to expand Pell Grants to short-term, demand-driven workforce programs, siphoning funds and students away from traditional four-year liberal arts institutions.
The “status opening” vision offers a trade: it asks voters to accept the disruption and volatility of AI in exchange for the destruction of the old status hierarchies. If you are an immigrant from a “non-elite” background or a working-class American with a high aptitude but no degree, Trump’s policies aim to open doors that were previously locked by credentialism.
This creates the “broad coalition” Douthat finds so difficult to categorize. It is a movement for the “uncredentialed” of all races. By framing the battle as “AI and Merit vs. Degrees and DEI,” Trump seeks to make the Republican Party the home for anyone who feels blocked by the modern gatekeepers of American life. The gamble is that the promise of a “status opening” will be more compelling to these voters than the risks of a world where AI and automation reign supreme.
National Identity: Multiracial or White-Identitarian?
Douthat asks if the coalition will remain multiracial or succumb to “white-identitarian” edgelords. The data from the past year suggests a precarious balance. Trump’s 2024 victory relied on historic gains with Hispanic and Black voters, but the aggressive mass deportation efforts, such as the raids in Minneapolis that led to the death of Renee Good, have strained this bond.
Polls show Trump’s favorability among Hispanic Americans dropped from 39% at the time of the election to roughly 30% by late 2025. The movement’s future depends on whether it can pivot toward a “civic religion” that focuses on shared national interests or if it doubles down on the racial grievances that fuel its most online, radical base.
Or not.
The shift toward a “merit-based” framework is the cornerstone of the Republican plan to solidify this new coalition. By framing anti-white discrimination and racial carveouts as a violation of universal civil rights, the administration seeks to move the GOP from a party of white grievance to a party of colorblind institutionalism. This strategy aims to appeal to the “status seekers” Douthat mentions—working-class and immigrant families who believe that racial preferences in elite universities and corporate boardrooms only serve to protect an entrenched, credentialed bureaucracy.
The Legal Framework: Restoring Merit
The administration has already moved to codify this shift through executive action. On January 21, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14173, titled “Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity.” This order directs the Department of Justice and the EEOC to treat many DEI initiatives—such as racial hiring quotas and race-restricted mentorship programs—as violations of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.
By using the language of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Republicans are effectively “reclaiming” the legacy of the civil rights movement to dismantle contemporary progressive policies. This allows them to signal to their white base that the government is no longer “anti-white” while simultaneously telling Black and Hispanic voters that the GOP is the party of individual achievement rather than group identity.
The Status Opener Strategy
The appeal to a broader coalition relies on the idea that racial carveouts are actually “class carveouts” in disguise. The argument suggests that a Nigerian immigrant’s son or a working-class Hispanic student is more harmed by an Ivy League legacy preference or a DEI quota that favors the children of the global elite than by a strictly meritocratic system.
The Multiracial Shift: Data from late 2024 and 2025 shows that this rhetoric resonates with upwardly mobile minority voters. Exit polls from the 2024 election indicated that Trump won nearly 45% of the Hispanic vote and made double-digit gains with Asian American men.
The “Colorblind” Majority: By attacking racial preferences, Republicans hope to build a durable 55% majority consisting of white voters and a significant minority of non-white voters who feel alienated by “woke” cultural mandates.
The Successor: Reconstructor or Just a New Developer?
The final question of whether a successor will accept constitutional norms or seek further “Caesarism” remains the most vital. Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the clear heir apparent, commanding 84% support in recent Turning Point USA straw polls. Unlike Trump, who often acts on impulse, Vance and other potential leaders like Marco Rubio or Ron DeSantis are more ideological and disciplined.
The likely path for a post-Trump right is a more “competent Caesarism”—an administration that uses the legal and executive precedents Trump set to pursue a nationalist agenda with greater legislative efficiency. They seek to be the “Augustus” to Trump’s “Julius Caesar,” moving from the chaos of demolition to the stability of a new, albeit more authoritarian, order.
The American right has historically traded the stability of the “administrative state” for the raw energy of populist disruption. To shift toward genuine competence, the movement must pay a steep price in both its internal cohesion and its relationship with its base. This transition requires moving from a politics of “retribution” to one of “institutionalization,” a process already underway but fraught with contradictions.
The Institutional Price: Centralization vs. Chaos
Competence in the second term is defined by “Schedule Policy/Career” (formerly Schedule F), which seeks to reclassify up to 50,000 civil servants as at-will employees. The price here is a fundamental restructuring of how the government functions. By replacing career experts with loyalists, the administration gains the ability to execute its “America First” agenda without internal friction. However, as noted in the Brookings data from early 2026, this “politicization” risks eroding the actual capacity of agencies to perform basic tasks, potentially leading to a government that is more “loyal” but less “functional” in times of crisis.
The Political Price: Alienating the “Anti-Cronyist” Base
There is a growing rift between the “tech-billionaire” wing of the movement and the traditional populist base. For the right to become competent in the 21st century, it has leaned heavily into the Pro-AI and “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) initiatives led by figures like Elon Musk.
The Trade-Off: The price of this technical competence is the abandonment of pure “America First” protectionism. While hardliners like Peter Navarro view tariffs as a permanent tool to rebuild domestic manufacturing, the tech-aligned wing sees them as mere negotiating leverage.
The Fallout: In late 2025, after a 90-day tariff pause, voices like Steve Bannon accused the administration of “crony capitalism.” For the right to be “competent” enough to manage a modern economy, it must often adopt the very technocratic methods that its populist base originally set out to destroy.
The Social Price: The End of the “Big Tent”
The pursuit of a “status opening” through meritocracy and anti-DEI measures is the administration’s most cohesive play for competence. By focusing on skill-based hiring and expanding Pell Grants to vocational programs, the GOP hopes to build a durable, multiracial, working-class majority.
Yet, the price of this professionalization is the marginalization of the “alt-right” and identitarian wings. As the administration seeks to govern as a serious nationalist power, it has distanced itself from figures like Nick Fuentes, who represent a “nebulous ecosystem” of racial grievance that is incompatible with a functional, multiracial governing coalition. The price of competence, then, is a “civil war” within the right’s own media and influencer ecosystem, where the “developers” of the movement are forced to tear down the very radicalism that helped them clear the land.
By prioritizing “status opening” over abstract economic theory, this administration attempts to replace the cold metrics of GDP and efficiency with a more visceral sense of national belonging. This shift moves away from the “neoliberal” consensus that treated workers as fungible units in a global labor pool. Instead, it seeks to restore dignity by validating the “uncredentialed” and protecting the local against the global.
For decades, economic policy was guided by principles of comparative advantage and free-market efficiency. These principles often dictated that if a factory in Ohio was less efficient than one in Guangdong, the Ohio factory should close. This was “rational” to an economist but devastating to the dignity of the American worker.
The current term rejects this. By making tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” the administration signals that the social stability of a community is more important than the cost of a toaster. The “America First Trade Policy” is less about spreadsheets and more about ensuring that an American man can support a family without a postgraduate degree. It is an economy designed for people with “grit and determination” rather than just those with elite credentials.
The pro-AI stance is the administration’s most futuristic move toward status opening. In a traditional economy, status is hoarded by “gatekeepers”—lawyers, middle managers, and consultants who use their degrees to control access to wealth.
Bypassing the Gatekeepers: AI allows a person with a high school diploma to perform tasks—legal research, coding, or complex logistics—that previously required a $200,000 degree.
The DOGE Impact: The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, isn’t just cutting costs; it is dismantling the “administrative state” that many Americans feel looks down on them. By automating the bureaucracy, the administration aims to strip the “credentialed class” of its power to obstruct the lives of ordinary citizens.
Dignity is also extended through a renewed focus on “merit-based opportunity.” By ending what the administration calls “illegal DEI mandates,” the goal is to tell every American—regardless of race—that their success depends on their own hard work, not their group identity.
The “Dignity Act” Potential: Even in immigration, the emerging “Dignity Act” framework suggests a trade-off: tougher enforcement at the border in exchange for a “legal status” for long-term residents that allows them to work and travel with dignity, even without a path to citizenship.
This is the “developer” phase Douthat described, but with a specific human goal. It is an attempt to build a country where status is open to the “forgotten” and where the government values the plumber as much as the professor. The “Golden Age” promised is one where the American identity is the only credential that truly matters.
The visual landscape of television is shifting under a new regulatory philosophy that views pharmaceutical saturation as a threat to both public health and national dignity. For many, the constant loop of medical disclaimers set to upbeat music creates a jarring, over-medicalized culture. The Trump administration has begun addressing this by moving away from the “adequate provision” loophole of 1997, which allowed companies to relegate the most serious risks to a website or a toll-free number.
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has framed these advertisements as a “pipeline of deception” that hooks the country on pills over lifestyle choices. The current regulatory push targets the specific aesthetic of these commercials—the “pleasant and happy” imagery used to mask grim recitations of side effects.
New Standards: The FDA has begun issuing hundreds of warning letters to drugmakers, demanding that risk information be presented with “consumer-friendly” language and without distracting music or visuals.
The Disclosure Burden: By requiring all side effects and contraindications to be disclosed on-air, the administration is effectively making the standard 30-second spot impossible. This is intended to force companies to pull back from linear TV, reducing the overall frequency of medical ads.
The specific prevalence of HIV PrEP (pre-exposure prophylaxis) ads is tied to the “Ending the HIV Epidemic” initiative, a first-term Trump program that was largely maintained in the 2026 budget. While the administration has cut CDC prevention and surveillance funding, it preserved the $157 million allocated for PrEP in community health centers.
Over-the-Counter Pivot: There is a growing push from the White House to move safe, proven drugs like PrEP to over-the-counter status. This shift would bypass the need for expensive physician gatekeeping and, consequently, the need for high-budget television campaigns aimed at driving patients to doctors for prescriptions.
The Dignity Argument: The administration’s focus is on “returning control to patients.” The goal is a country where people access care discreetly and affordably without being bombarded by commercials that turn private health matters into public spectacles.
By incentivizing “unbranded” advertising—where companies talk about health conditions and lifestyle rather than specific expensive brands—the government hopes to restore a sense of dignity to the airwaves. As these ads become longer, more factual, and less “gimmicky,” the financial incentive to run them on prime-time TV diminishes.
