Judaism as a Group Evolutionary Strategy: An interview with Dr. Nathan Cofnas

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HBO’s Small Town News & That Noble Dream: The ‘Objectivity Question’ (8-3-21)

If you are watching a TV show and it makes you uncomfortable because it reminds you of yourself, I assume that indicates that there’s something there you haven’t worked through yet. For example, I’m watching the Small Town News doco, and I am watching these modestly talented TV personalities who have to work at a small town station in Nevada if they want to be on TV, and it makes me think that maybe I’m never going to be a bright shiny star, maybe my talents are only small town, and if this makes me uncomfortable, maybe I have not come to terms with the reality of me and of my possibilities. 

If we get into wide-ranging discussions, we are not working out syllogisms. We are choosing certain facts and theories and reports of reality and highlighting them rather than those facts, theories, reports that point in a different direction. We are filtering reality through our moods, and likely proclaiming it is objective truth. Understanding ourselves and others and why we may so want to believe in certain facts, theories and reports, understanding the payoffs we may get for signing on with certain theories, may shed light on why we see reality the way we do, and that may be far more important than what we are ostensibly discussing. Why is it that this theory, this fact, this report, is what I want us to focus on? So this type of analysis is more playing the player (ad hominem) rather than playing the ball (strictly facts and logic). And it’s got a bigger place than I thought a few days ago. Peter Novick wrote:

Ad hominem and argument from authority first entered the English language in the 17th Century with John Locke and these forms of argument were not then regarded as logical fallacies. Locke also gave us modern notions of facts/news ala “facts are statements of simple ideas expressed in language.”

I love this argument because it forced me to rethink my assumptions that the only honorable forms of debate are over facts and logic.

When people discuss the news and events like Covid and public policies, are we primarily working out logical syllogisms or are we more like witnesses to a bewildering array of events and interpretations? If the former, then ad hominem has no place, if the latter, then it might. Given the way life works, it would be weird not to use ad hominen and argument from authority analyses in trying to better understand reality. Finally, almost everything we “know” about the world depends upon referencing authority.

A philosopher emails me:

In logic, ad hominem is a fallacy to do with how people respond to arguments: rejecting an argument simply because of some irrelevant fact about the arguer. An argument is at least two statements, a conclusion and at least one premise. The reason why this is a fallacy is just that the argument can and should be judged on its merits. (Are the premises true, and do they rationally support the conclusion?) The merits of the argument can be separated from any facts about the arguer. (Although, when it comes to deciding whether the premises are true, facts about the arguer are sometimes relevant. If a premise is just testimony from the arguer, and there’s no way to decide whether it’s true except by deciding whether he’s a reliable source, his character and history are relevant!)

But here the author seems to shift to talking about the acceptance of “propositions”, i.e. isolated statements. When we evaluate statements, facts about the person making the statement are usually relevant. If I know that a certain historian has a bad memory or often makes logical errors, I might not believe his statement just because he said so. I’d want to know his reasoning before deciding whether to believe it. And if I know this person is the world’s greatest expert on the civil war, I’m inclined to believe his statement about the civil was just because he said so (provided I don’t have reasons for doubting or for thinking he’s not being honest, etc).

Is the point that something like “ad hominem” is reasonable when historians just state things and we can’t be too sure about their ability to objectively assess the evidence? That seems true. (But I wouldn’t call this “ad hominem” since, again, that’s really about how people respond to arguments rather than statements.)

I agree that much of what we know (or think we know) is based on trusting authorities. That’s not a fallacy in itself, because we often have good reason for believing that someone is an authority on a given topic (and is being honest). arguments from authority are often good arguments. They’re fallacies only when the person in question isn’t really an authority on the topic.

Similarly, we often have good reason for not trusting someone’s judgments or testimony. I wouldn’t believe a statement about quantum mechanics just because a jazz musician said so. But this isn’t anything like an ad hominem. In order for there to be an ad hominem, there has to be an argument first. If we’re just talking about a statement, there’s no argument for us to ad hom. It’s not a fallacy to consider facts about the person making a claim when the question is whether to treat that person’s testimony as evidence for what he’s claiming.

These aren’t cases where there’s an argument that’s being unjustly ignored or dismissed, and they’re not cases where facts about the person are irrelevant.

When I talk about covid and things like that I’m witnessing a bewildering array of events and interpretations and​ trying to work out logical syllogisms. I can definitely see how something sort of like ad hominem is useful here. (If someone just states a bunch of things about viruses with no supporting argument, I’m more likely to believe him if I can verify that he’s a respected virologist.)

Syllogism is just a type of argument using categorical terms and quantifiers (“all”, “some”, “no”). They come in a few traditional forms. For example, “All Fs are Gs; All Gs are Hs; Therefore, All Gs are Hs” or “Some Fs are Gs; Some Gs are Hs; Therefore, Some Fs are Hs”. Some kinds are valid, meaning that if the premises are all true the conclusion is true, and some are invalid. (In those examples, the first kind is valid and the second isn’t.) More broadly, there are lots of different logical systems of rules. These are just rules for determining what is true given some set of statements.

On its own, syllogistic logic and other kinds of logic don’t tell us anything about the world. In order to get knowledge about the world we need to plug in empirical statements as premises. And logic alone can’t tell us which ones to plug in–e.g. “Biden is a good President” versus “Biden is a bad President”, “Covid is dangerous for kids” vs “Covid isn’t dangerous for kids”.

It seems pretty obvious to me that when reasonable and well-informed people have wide-ranging discussions they are​ very often constructing syllogisms. More generally, they’re using logic and other systematic kinds of reasoning in order to figure things out. They’re not only​ using logic, since logic needs empirical facts to get anywhere.

We do often want to know about people’s personalities and biases and motivations in order to figure things out. It’s often relevant. But we also need logic in order to gain knowledge in that area. A psychologist who thinks “Some men are sexist” implies “All men are sexist” isn’t going to have much to contribute to a wide-ranging discussion about how men think, what their biases may be, etc. Whatever the topic might be, there are no good reasons for believing or disbelieving things that aren’t reducible to a combination of facts and logic.

00:00 HBO’s Small Town News works because it adores, not mocks, its cast and their commitment, https://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2021/08/small-town-news-hbo-review/
03:00 ‘Small Town News: KPVM Pahrump’ Spotlights One of the Last Independent TV Stations, https://www.realityblurred.com/realitytv/2021/08/small-town-news-hbo-review/
08:00 The “Objective Facts” of Journalism, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=140236
10:00 That Noble Dream: The ‘Objectivity Question’ and the American Historical Profession, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=138784

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Dragon Day by Matthew Pegas (8-2-21)

00:00 Why did Matt write this novel? https://terrorhousepress.com/product/dragon-day/
01:40 Matt’s journey in Los Angeles
03:00 Stark Truth TV doco Supply, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RsdT5fADDU
17:00 Could a happy man write this book?
26:00 Novel’s three main characters
31:30 UCLA in 1988, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCzkOHdFPGE
48:10 Matt’s core of wholesomeness
49:15 Matt’s experience of Los Angeles
1:00:00 God
1:02:00 The current Pope

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After Our Clashes, Novelist Andy Nowicki And I Are Both Strengthened In Our Worldviews

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Is Ad Hominen A Logical Fallacy When Applied To Internet Debates? (8-2-21)

08:00 That Noble Dream: The ‘Objectivity Question’ and the American Historical Profession, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=138784
10:00 Ad hominem, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
15:00 John Locke, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Locke
32:00 Argument from authority, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
48:00 Bernadotte Everly Schmitt, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernadotte_Everly_Schmitt

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Robert Stark’s Case For Right-Wing Multiculturalism (8-1-21)

00:00 Robert Stark’s Substack, https://robertstark.substack.com/
03:00 Robert Stark’s political centrism
05:30 Robert’s experience with the Covid pandemic
19:00 California governor recall
20:00 Larry Elder’s prospects to become governor
36:30 Cal-Exit
56:45 Cape Independence and shared California values, https://robertstark.substack.com/p/cape-independence-and-shared-california
1:01:00 David Cole Stein and the gospel of Mel Gibson
1:03:00 People ruining their lives with conspiracy theories and extreme politics
1:07:30 Conspiracy theories

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What Must A Jew Believe? (8-1-21)

00:00 Rabbi Judas, a West Bank Sephardi settler, joins from Israel, https://twitter.com/JudasMaccabeus7
02:00 Jewish philosopher, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maimonides
04:00 Saadia Gaon, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saadia_Gaon
06:00 Argument from Authority, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
13:00 Hasidic Judaism, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasidic_Judaism
14:00 Limits of Orthodox Theology: Maimonides’ Thirteen Principles Reappraised, https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Orthodox-Theology-Reappraised-Civilization/dp/1906764239
18:00 Rabbi Judah’s Youtube channel, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLgGCISOp6Ytu1W6adwvAtw
40:00 Rambam’s commentary on the Mishna, https://www.sefaria.org/Rambam_on_Mishnah_Sanhedrin.10.1?lang=bi
43:00 All Jews have a share in the world to come
53:00 Do not make the Torah into a crown on your head or as a spade to dig
1:00:00 Why do we love studying Torah? For our sake, for Torah’s sake, for God’s sake?
1:01:30 Reading forbidden literature
1:05:00 Rashbam, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rashbam
1:08:00 Dooovid joins to discuss his interest in many religions, https://twitter.com/RebDoooovid
1:09:00 Reb Doooovid’s Youtube channel, https://www.youtube.com/user/doooovid
1:10:00 Hinduism, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinduism
1:35:00 Haredim vs non-Haredi Jews
1:44:40 Adam Green, https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2018/10/02/infowars-host-owen-shroyer-debates-jewish-conspiracies-antisemitic-youtuber
1:46:00 Judas debates Adam Green, https://www.bitchute.com/video/5ZVWQrktfxJC/
1:48:00 Luke talks to Adam Green, https://rumble.com/vd9i17-adam-green-of-know-more-news-1-25-21.html
1:50:00 The Jewish approach to informers, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesirah
2:00:00 Philo’s weak Judaic background, https://www.britannica.com/biography/Philo-Judaeus
2:10:00 Adam Green, https://canarymission.org/individual/Adam_Green
2:20:00 Christopher Jon Bjerknes, https://canarymission.org/individual/Christopher_Jon_Bjerknes
2:23:00 Judas’s obsession with anti-semites
2:55:00 Judaism and homosexuality
3:17:00 Jews and the Enlightenment, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment

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America Is Not Ready for a War With China – How to Get the Pentagon to Focus on the Real Threats

Michael Beckley, my favorite geo-political analyst these days, he specializes in China, writes for Foreign Affairs magazine June 10:

Contrary to popular belief, the United States has the means to check China’s naval expansion. China’s defense expenditures have risen for decades, but the United States still spends almost as much on its navy and Marine Corps alone as China does on its entire military, excluding its internal security forces. American combat units bear many burdens besides preparing for a U.S.-Chinese war—but so do China’s. China shares sea or land borders with 19 countries, ten of which have ongoing territorial disputes with Beijing. Patrolling these borders bogs down hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops and drains at least a quarter of China’s military budget. Although China would have home-field advantage in a war in East Asia, it would also face a more daunting set of tasks. Consider a conflict over Taiwan in which China would need to seize and control territory in order to win, whereas the United States would just need to deny China that control—a far easier mission.

Given these enduring U.S. advantages, a consensus has emerged among defense experts about how to deter China. Instead of waiting for a war to begin and then surging vulnerable aircraft carriers into East Asia, the United States could install a high-tech “minefield” in the area by prepositioning missile launchers, armed drones, and sensors at sea and on allied territory near China’s coastline. These diffuse networks of munitions would be tough for China to neutralize and would not require large bases or fancy platforms. Instead, they could be installed on almost anything that floats or flies, including converted merchant ships, barges, and aircraft.

The United States has vast resources and a viable strategy to counter China’s military expansion.
Defense analysts have touted this approach for more than a decade. Yet the U.S. military still relies overwhelmingly on small numbers of large warships and short-range fighter aircraft operating from exposed bases—exactly the kinds of forces that China could destroy in a preemptive air and missile attack. To make matters worse, Washington has been exporting this flawed system to its allies. Taiwan’s purchases of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks, for example, have depleted funds from the island’s army and ground-based missile forces, its primary defense against a Chinese amphibious assault.

In the opinion of many military experts, U.S. leaders face what should be an easy choice. They can rapidly shore up the military balance in East Asia by flooding the region with low-cost shooters and sensors, or they can continue to fritter away resources on extraneous missions and expensive weapons systems that are sitting ducks for China’s missiles. The question is: Why doesn’t the U.S. defense establishment see things the same way?

MISSION CREEP

The problem starts at the very top and flows down through the ranks. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. presidents have allowed (and often encouraged) the Department of Defense to morph into the Department of Everything. The U.S. military now performs dozens of missions besides preparing for great-power war, including development assistance, disaster relief, counternarcotics operations, diplomatic outreach, environmental conservation, and election security. American military personnel operate in nearly every country on earth and perform almost every conceivable job.

This broad mandate has turned U.S. combatant commanders into what The Washington Post reporter Dana Priest has described as “the modern-day equivalent of the Roman Empire’s proconsuls—well-funded, semi-autonomous, unconventional centers of U.S. foreign policy.”

They oversee sprawling mini-Pentagons, travel the world like heads of state, and handle a wide array of issues. Instead of advocating the relatively cheap and easy deployment of cruise missiles that would be crucial in a war with China, they instead push for big military units and massive military platforms (such as aircraft carriers and destroyers) that can handle a variety of peacetime missions.

As the defense expert Mackenzie Eaglen has shown, combatant commanders constantly request the use of such platforms, and the services run their forces ragged trying to meet those demands. As a result, the U.S. military has maintained a wartime tempo of operations throughout the past two decades, even after drawing down from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, with some units currently being sent on deployments at nearly three times the Pentagon-recommended rate. Not surprisingly, accidents and mechanical failures have surged. From 2006 to early 2021, the number of U.S. service members killed in accidents—5,913—was more than double the number killed in combat. In 1986, operations and maintenance costs consumed 28 percent of the Pentagon’s budget; they now drain a whopping 41 percent, which is more than twice the budget share available to buy new weapons systems. These trends have set off a vicious cycle in which the Pentagon spends more and more to maintain fewer, older, and increasingly obsolete forces.

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I Prefer Trump As President

At the same time, I cannot deny that there many ways where Joe Biden is a superior president. Political scientist Steven Taylor writes that Biden “does an outstanding job of laying out the case [for vaccines] and… trying to undo the politicization of these issues catalyzed by his predecessor.”

My favorite new (to me) web site over the past year is Outsidethebeltway.com. It is updated every day, I read it several times a week, and it’s written by two political scientists, former Republicans turned centrist and left of center who are frequently sane and commonsensical.

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Q Anon

An Orthodox Jew tells me that much of the Q Anon crowd is no longer practicing. A Christian tells me much of the Q Anon crowd no longer has faith. A Muslim tells me much of the Q Anon crowd is no longer on jihad.

The easiest way we have of understanding something new is to compare it with something we know.

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