Transgender Man Gives Birth to Baby — Embraces Life as ‘Abba’

I don’t think she/he’ll get an aliyah at an Orthodox shul.

(JTA) — When Rafi Daugherty went to the hospital for the birth of his first child, he posted a sign on the delivery room door.
“I am a single transgender man having my first baby,” it read. “I use he/him/his pronouns and will be called ‘Abba’ (Hebrew for father) by the baby. Papa, Dad, Daddy, Father … are also ok.”
Rafi, 33, wanted hospital staff to be prepared for what they were about to see: a man laboring in bed.

“I didn’t want them to assume that I identified as female because I was having a baby,” he said.
After eight hours of labor, Rafi was holding his 7-pound, 10-ounce daughter: Ettie Rose, named, in the Jewish tradition, for Rafi’s maternal grandmother and great-grandmother.
Since bringing Ettie home from the hospital, Rafi’s days have been filled with frequent feedings — unable to nurse, he gives his daughter donor breast milk — and diaper changes and stroller walks around his Denver neighborhood.
Nearly five months on, Ettie is a thriving infant with an impressive collection of plush seahorses.

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Think You’ve Got A Tough Job?

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Back in 2003, I wrote about Dildos of Shame.

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Us & Them: The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism

By Jerry Z. Muller for Foreign Affairs, March 2008:

PROJECTING THEIR own experience onto the rest of the world, Americans generally belittle the role of ethnic nationalism in politics. After all, in the United States people of varying ethnic origins live cheek by jowl in relative peace. Within two or three generations of immigration, their ethnic identities are attenuated by cultural assimilation and intermarriage. Surely, things cannot be so different elsewhere.

Americans also find ethnonationalism discomfiting both intellectually and morally. Social scientists go to great lengths to demonstrate that it is a product not of nature but of culture, often deliberately constructed. And ethicists scorn value systems based on narrow group identities rather than cosmopolitanism.

But none of this will make ethnonationalism go away. Immigrants to the United States usually arrive with a willingness to fit into their new country and reshape their identities accordingly. But for those who remain behind in lands where their ancestors have lived for generations, if not centuries, political identities often take ethnic form, producing competing communal claims to political power. The creation of a peaceful regional order of nation-states has usually been the product of a violent process of ethnic separation. In areas where that separation has not yet occurred, politics is apt to remain ugly.

A familiar and influential narrative of twentieth-century European history argues that nationalism twice led to war, in 1914 and then again in 1939. Thereafter, the story goes, Europeans concluded that nationalism was a danger and gradually abandoned it. In the postwar decades, western Europeans enmeshed themselves in a web of transnational institutions, culminating in the European Union (EU).

After the fall of the Soviet empire, that transnational framework spread eastward to encompass most of the continent. Europeans entered a postnational era, which was not only a good thing in itself but also a model for other regions. Nationalism, in this view, had been a tragic detour on the road to a peaceful liberal democratic order.

This story is widely believed by educated Europeans and even more so, perhaps, by educated Americans. Recently, for example, in the course of arguing that Israel ought to give up its claim to be a Jewish state and dissolve itself into some sort ofbinational entitywith the Palestinians, the prominent historian Tony Judt informed the readers of The New York Review of Books that “the problem with Israel … [is that] it has imported a characteristically late-nineteenth-century separatist project into a world that has moved on, a world of individual rights, open frontiers, and international law. The very idea of a ‘Jewish state’… is an anachronism.”

Yet the experience of the hundreds of Africans and Asians who perish each year trying to get into Europe by landing on the coast of Spain or Italy reveals that Europe’s frontiers are not so open. And a survey would show that whereas in 19oo there were many states in Europe without a single overwhelmingly dominant nationality, by 2007 there were only two, and one of those, Belgium, was close to breaking up. Aside from Switzerland, in other words-where the domestic ethnic balance of power is protected by strict citizenship laws-in Europe the “separatist project” has not so much vanished as triumphed.

Far from having been superannuated in 1945, in many respects ethnonationalism was at its apogee in the years immediately after World War II. European stability during the Cold War era was in fact due partly to the widespread fulfillment of the ethnonationalist project.

And since the end of the Cold War, ethnonationalism has continued to reshape European borders. In short, ethnonationalism has played a more profound and lasting role in modern history than is commonly understood, and the processes that led to the dominance of the ethnonational state and the separation of ethnic groups in Europe are likely to reoccur elsewhere. Increased urbanization, literacy, and political mobilization; differences in the fertility rates and economic performance of various ethnic groups; and immigration will challenge the internal structure of states as well as their borders. Whether politically correct or not, ethnonationalism will continue to shape the world in the twenty-first century.

THERE ARE two major ways of thinking about national identity. One is that all people who live within a country’s borders are part of the nation, regardless of their ethnic, racial, or religious origins. This liberal or civic nationalism is the conception with which contemporary Americans are most likely to identify. But the liberal view has competed with and often lost out to a different view, that of ethnonationalism. The core of the ethnonationalist idea is that nations are defined by a shared heritage, which usually includes a common language, a common faith, and a common ethnic ancestry.

The ethnonationalist view has traditionally dominated through much of Europe and has held its own even in the United States until recently. For substantial stretches of U.S. history, it was believed that only the people of English origin, or those who were Protestant, or white, or hailed from northern Europe were real Americans. It was only in 1965 that the reform of U.S. immigration law abolished the system of national-origin quotas that had been in place for several decades. This system had excluded Asians entirely and radically restricted immigration from southern and eastern Europe.

Ethnonationalism draws much of its emotive power from the notion that the members of a nation are part of an extended family, ultimately united by ties of blood. It is the subjective belief in the reality of a common “we” that counts. The markers that distinguish the in-group vary from case to case and time to time, and the subjective nature of the communal boundaries has led some to discount their practical significance. But as Walker Connor, an astute student of nationalism, has noted, “It is not what is, but what people believe is that has behavioral consequences.” And the central tenets of ethnonationalist belief are that nations exist, that each nation ought to have its own state, and that each state should be made up of the members of a single nation.

The conventional narrative of European history asserts that nationalism was primarily liberal in the western part of the continent and that it became more ethnically oriented as one moved east. There is some truth to this, but it disguises a good deal as well. It is more accurate to say that when modern states began to form, political boundaries and ethnolinguistic boundaries largely coincided in the areas along Europe’s Atlantic coast. Liberal nationalism, that is, was most apt to emerge in states that already possessed a high degree of ethnic homogeneity. Long before the nineteenth century, countries such as England, France, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden emerged as nation-states in polities where ethnic divisions had been softened by a long history of cultural and social homogenization…

TODAY, PEOPLE tend to take the nation-state for granted as the natural form of political association and regard empires as anomalies.

But over the broad sweep of recorded history, the opposite is closer to the truth. Most people at most times have lived in empires, with the nation-state the exception rather than the rule. So what triggered the change?

The rise of ethnonationalism, as the sociologist Ernest Gellner has explained, was not some strange historical mistake; rather, it was propelled by some of the deepest currents of modernity. Military competition between states created a demand for expanded state resources and hence continual economic growth. Economic growth, in
turn, depended on mass literacy and easy communication, spurring policies to promote education and a common language-which led directly to conflicts over language and communal opportunities.

Modern societies are premised on the egalitarian notion that in theory, at least, anyone can aspire to any economic position. But in practice, everyone does not have an equal likelihood of upward economic mobility, and not simply because individuals have different innate capabilities. For such advances depend in part on what economists call “cultural capital,” the skills and behavioral patterns that help individuals and groups succeed. Groups with traditions of literacy and engagement in commerce tend to excel, for example, whereas those without such traditions tend to lag behind.

As they moved into cities and got more education during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, ethnic groups with largely peasant backgrounds, such as the Czechs, the Poles, the Slovaks, and the Ukrainians found that key positions in the government and the economy were already occupied-often by ethnic Armenians, Germans,
Greeks, or Jews. Speakers of the same language came to share a sense that they belonged together and to define themselves in contrast to other communities. And eventually they came to demand a nationstate of their own, in which they would be the masters, dominating politics, staffing the civil service, and controlling commerce.

Ethnonationalism had a psychological basis as well as an economic one. By creating a new and direct relationship between individuals and the government, the rise of the modern state weakened individuals’ traditional bonds to intermediate social units, such as the family, the clan, the guild, and the church. And by spurring social and geographic mobility and a self-help mentality, the rise of market-based economies did the same. The result was an emotional vacuum that was often filled by new forms of identification, often along ethnic lines.

Ethnonationalist ideology called for a congruence between the state and the ethnically defined nation, with explosive results. As Lord Acton recognized in 1862, “By making the state and the nation commensurate with each other in theory, [nationalism] reduces practically to a subject condition all other nationalities that may be within the boundary. … According, therefore, to the degree of humanity and civilization in that dominant body which claims all the rights of the community, the inferior races are exterminated, or reduced to servitude, or outlawed, or put in a condition of dependence.” And that is just what happened.

NINETEENTH-CENTURY LIBERALS, like many proponents of globalization today, believed that the spread of international commerce would lead people to recognize the mutual benefits that could come from peace and trade, both within polities and between them.

Socialists agreed, although they believed that harmony would come only after the arrival of socialism. Yet that was not the course that twentieth century history was destined to follow. The process of “making the state and the nation commensurate” took a variety of forms, from voluntary emigration (often motivated by governmental
discrimination against minority ethnicities) to forced deportation (also known as “population transfer”) to genocide. Although the term “ethnic cleansing” has come into English usage only recently, its verbal correlates in Czech, French, German, and Polish go back much further. Much of the history of twentieth-century Europe, in fact, has been a painful, drawn-out process of ethnic disaggregation.

Massive ethnic disaggregation began on Europe’s frontiers. In the ethnically mixed Balkans, wars to expand the nation-states of Bulgaria, Greece, and Serbia at the expense of the ailing Ottoman Empire were accompanied by ferocious interethnic violence. During the Balkan Wars of 1912-13, almost half a million people left their traditional homelands, either voluntarily or by force. Muslims left regions under the control of Bulgarians, Greeks, and Serbs; Bulgarians abandoned Greek-controlled areas of Macedonia; Greeks fled from regions of Macedonia ceded to Bulgaria and Serbia.

World War I led to the demise of the three great turn-of-the century empires, unleashing an explosion of ethnonationalism in the process. In the Ottoman Empire, mass deportations and murder during the war took the lives of a million members of the local Armenian minority in an early attempt at ethnic cleansing, if not genocide. In 1919, the Greek government invaded the area that would become Turkey, seeking to carve out a “greater Greece” stretching all the way to Constantinople. Meeting with initial success, the Greek forces
looted and burned villages in an effort to drive out the region’s ethnic Turks. But Turkish forces eventually regrouped and pushed the Greek army back, engaging in their own ethnic cleansing against local Greeks along the way. Then the process of population transfers was formalized in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne: all ethnic Greeks were to go to Greece, all Greek Muslims to Turkey. In the end, Turkey expelled almost 1.5 million people, and Greece expelled almost 400,000.

Out of the breakup of the Hapsburg and Romanov empires emerged a multitude of new countries. Many conceived of themselves as ethnonational polities, in which the state existed to protect and promote the dominant ethnic group. Yet of central and eastern Europe’s roughly 6o million people, 25 million continued to be part of ethnic minorities in the countries in which they lived. In most cases, the ethnic majority did not believe in trying to help minorities assimilate, nor were the minorities always eager to do so themselves.

Nationalist governments openly discriminated in favor of the dominant community. Government activities were conducted solely in the language of the majority, and the civil service was reserved for those who spoke it.

In much of central and eastern Europe, Jews had long played an important role in trade and commerce. When they were given civil rights in the late nineteenth century, they tended to excel in professions requiring higher education, such as medicine and law, and soon Jews or people of Jewish descent made up almost half the doctors and lawyers in cities such as Budapest, Vienna, and Warsaw. By the 1930s, many governments adopted policies to try to check and reverse these advances, denying Jews credit and limiting their access to higher education. In other words, the National Socialists who came to power in Germany in 1933 and based their movement around a “Germanness” they defined in contrast to “Jewishness” were an extreme version of a more common ethnonationalist trend.

The politics of ethnonationalism took an even deadlier turn during World War II. The Nazi regime tried to reorder the ethnic map of the continent by force. Its most radical act was an attempt to rid Europe of Jews by killing them all-an attempt that largely succeeded. The Nazis also used ethnic German minorities in Czechoslovakia, Poland, and elsewhere to enforce Nazi domination, and many of the regimes allied with Germany engaged in their own campaigns against internal ethnic enemies. The Romanian regime, for example, murdered hundreds of thousands of Jews on its own, without orders from Germany, and the government of Croatia murdered not only its Jews but hundreds of thousands of Serbs and Romany as well.

ONE MIGHT have expected that the Nazi regime’s deadly policies and crushing defeat would mark the end of the ethnonationalist era. But in fact they set the stage for another massive round of ethnonational transformation. The political settlement in central Europe after World War I had been achieved primarily by moving borders to align them with populations. After World War II, it was the populations that moved instead. Millions of people were expelled from their homes and countries, with at least the tacit support of the victorious Allies.

Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin all concluded that the expulsion of ethnic Germans from non-German countries was a prerequisite to a stable postwar order. As Churchill put it in a speech to the British parliament in December 1944, “Expulsion is the method which, so far as we have been able to see, will be the most satisfactory and lasting. There will be no mixture of populations to cause endless trouble. … A clean sweep will be made. I am not alarmed at the prospect of the disentanglement of population, nor am I alarmed by these large transferences.” He cited the Treaty of Lausanne as a precedent, showing how even the leaders of liberal democracies had concluded that only radically illiberal measures would eliminate the causes of ethnonational aspirations and aggression.

Between 1944 and 1945, five million ethnic Germans from the eastern parts of the German Reich fled westward to escape the conquering Red Army, which was energetically raping and massacring its way to Berlin. Then, between 1945 and 1947, the new postliberation regimes in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Yugoslavia expelled another seven million Germans in response to their collaboration with the Nazis. Together, these measures constituted the largest forced population movement in European history, with hundreds of thousands of people dying along the way.

The handful of Jews who survived the war and returned to their homes in eastern Europe met with so much anti-Semitism that most chose to leave for good. About 220,000 of them made their way into the American-occupied zone of Germany, from which most eventually went to Israel or the United States. Jews thus essentially vanished
from central and eastern Europe, which had been the center of Jewish life since the sixteenth century.

Millions of refugees from other ethnic groups were also evicted from their homes and resettled after the war. This was due partly to the fact that the borders of the Soviet Union had moved westward, into what had once been Poland, while the borders of Poland also moved westward, into what had once been Germany. To make populations
correspond to the new borders, 1.5 million Poles living in areas that were now part of the Soviet Union were deported to Poland, and 5oo,ooo ethnic Ukrainians who had been living in Poland were sent to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Yet another exchange of populations took place between Czechoslovakia and Hungary, with Slovaks transferred out of Hungary and Magyars sent away from Czechoslovakia. A smaller number of Magyars also moved to Hungary from Yugoslavia, with Serbs and Croats moving in the opposite direction.

As a result of this massive process of ethnic unmixing, the ethnonationalist ideal was largely realized: for the most part, each nation in Europe had its own state, and each state was made up almost exclusively of a single ethnic nationality. During the Cold War, the few exceptions to this rule included Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia. But these countries’ subsequent fate only demonstrated the ongoing vitality of ethnonationalism. After the fall of communism, East and West Germany were unified with remarkable rapidity, Czechoslovakia split peacefully into Czech and Slovak republics, and the Soviet Union broke apart into a variety
of different national units. Since then, ethnic Russian minorities in many of the post-Soviet states have gradually immigrated to Russia, Magyars in Romania have moved to Hungary, and the few remaining ethnic Germans in Russia have largely gone to Germany. A million people ofJewish origin from the former Soviet Union have
made their way to Israel. Yugoslavia saw the secession of Croatia and Slovenia and then descended into ethnonational wars over Bosnia and Kosovo.

The breakup of Yugoslavia was simply the last act of a long play. But the plot of that play-the disaggregation of peoples and the triumph of ethnonationalism in modern Europe-is rarely recognized, and so a story whose significance is comparable to the spread of democracy or capitalism remains largely unknown and unappreciated.

THE EFFECTS of ethnonationalism, of course, have hardly been confined to Europe. For much of the developing world, decolonization has meant ethnic disaggregation through the exchange or expulsion of local minorities.

The end of the British Raj in 1947 brought about the partition of the subcontinent into India and Pakistan, along with an orgy of violence that took hundreds of thousands of lives. Fifteen million people became refugees, including Muslims who went to Pakistan and Hindus who went to India. Then, in 1971, Pakistan itself, originally unified on the basis of religion, dissolved into Urdu-speaking Pakistan and Bengali-speaking Bangladesh.

In the former British mandate of Palestine, a jewish state was established in 1948 and was promptly greeted by the revolt of the indigenous Arab community and an invasion from the surrounding Arab states. In the war that resulted, regions that fell under Arab control were cleansed of their Jewish populations, and Arabs fled or were forced out of areas that came under Jewish control. Some 750,000 Arabs left, primarily for the surrounding Arab countries, and the remaining 15o,ooo constituted only about a sixth of the population of the new Jewish state. In the years afterward, nationalist-inspired violence against Jews in Arab countries propelled almost all of the more than 5oo,ooo Jews there to leave their lands of origin and immigrate to Israel. Likewise, in 1962 the end of French control in Algeria led to the forced emigration of Algerians of European origin (the so-called pieds-noirs), most of whom immigrated to France. Shortly thereafter, ethnic minorities of Asian origin were forced out of postcolonial Uganda. The legacy of the colonial era, moreover, is hardly finished. When the European overseas empires dissolved, they left behind a patchwork of states whose boundaries often cut across ethnic patterns of settlement and whose internal populations were ethnically mixed. It is wishful thinking to suppose that these boundaries will be permanent.

As societies in the former colonial world modernize, becoming more urban, literate, and politically mobilized, the forces that gave rise to ethnonationalism and ethnic disaggregation in Europe are apt to drive events there, too.

ANALYSTS OF ethnic disaggregation typically focus on its destructive effects, which is understandable given the direct human suffering it has often entailed. But such attitudes can yield a distorted perspective by overlooking the less obvious costs and also the important benefits that ethnic separation has brought.

Economists from Adam Smith onward, for example, have argued that the efficiencies of competitive markets tend to increase with the markets’ size. The dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire into smaller nation-states, each with its own barriers to trade, was thus economically irrational and contributed to the region’s travails in the interwar period. Much of subsequent European history has involved attempts to overcome this and other economic fragmentation, culminating in the EU.

Ethnic disaggregation also seems to have deleterious effects on cultural vitality. Precisely because most of their citizens share a common cultural and linguistic heritage, the homogenized states of postwar Europe have tended to be more culturally insular than their demographically diverse predecessors. With few Jews in Europe
and few Germans in Prague, that is, there are fewer Franz Kafkas.

Forced migrations generally penalize the expelling countries and reward the receiving ones. Expulsion is often driven by a majority group’s resentment of a minority group’s success, on the mistaken assumption that achievement is a zero-sum game. But countries that got rid of their Armenians, Germans, Greeks, Jews, and other successful minorities deprived themselves of some of their most talented citizens, who simply took their skills and knowledge elsewhere. And in many places, the triumph of ethnonational politics has meant the victory of traditionally rural groups over more urbanized ones, which possess just those skills desirable in an advanced industrial economy.

But if ethnonationalism has frequently led to tension and conflict, it has also proved to be a source of cohesion and stability. When French textbooks began with “Our ancestors the Gauls” or when Churchill spoke to wartime audiences of”this island race,” they appealed to ethnonationalist sensibilities as a source of mutual trust and sacrifice.

Liberal democracy and ethnic homogeneity are not only compatible; they can be complementary. One could argue that Europe has been so harmonious since World War II not because of the failure of ethnic nationalism but because of its success, which removed some of the greatest sources of conflict both within and between countries. The fact that ethnic and state boundaries now largely coincide has meant that there are fewer disputes over borders or expatriate communities, leading to the most stable territorial configuration in European history.

These ethnically homogeneous polities have displayed a great deal of internal solidarity, moreover, facilitating government programs, including domestic transfer payments, of various kinds. When the Swedish Social Democrats were developing plans for Europe’s most extensive welfare state during the interwar period, the political scientist Sheri Berman has noted, they conceived of and sold them as the construction of afolkhemmet, or “people’s home.”

Several decades of life in consolidated, ethnically homogeneous states may even have worked to sap ethnonationalism’s own emotional power. Many Europeans are now prepared, and even eager, to participate in transnational frameworks such as the EU, in part because their perceived need for collective self-determination has largely been satisfied.

ALONG WITH the process of forced ethnic disaggregation over the last two centuries, there has also been a process of ethnic mixing brought about by voluntary emigration. The general pattern has been one of emigration from poor, stagnant areas to richer and more dynamic ones.

In Europe, this has meant primarily movement west and north, leading above all to France and the United Kingdom. This pattern has continued into the present: as a result of recent migration, for example, there are now half a million Poles in the Great Britain and 2oo,ooo in Ireland. Immigrants from one part of Europe who have moved to another and ended up staying there have tended to assimilate and, despite some grumbling about a supposed invasion of “Polish plumbers,” have created few significant problems.

The most dramatic transformation of European ethnic balances in recent decades has come from the immigration of people of Asian, African, and Middle Eastern origin, and here the results have been mixed. Some of these groups have achieved remarkable success, such as the Indian Hindus who have come to the United Kingdom. But in
Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere, on balance the educational and economic progress of Muslim immigrants has been more limited and their cultural alienation greater.

How much of the problem can be traced to discrimination, how much to the cultural patterns of the immigrants themselves, and how much to the policies of European governments is difficult to determine. But a number of factors, from official multiculturalism to generous welfare states to the ease of contact with ethnic homelands, seem to have made it possible to create ethnic islands where assimilation into the larger culture and economy is limited. As a result, some of the traditional contours of European politics have been upended. The left, for example, has tended to embrace immigration in the name of egalitarianism and multiculturalism. But if there is indeed a link between ethnic homogeneity and a population’s willingness to support generous income-redistribution programs, the encouragement of a more heterogeneous society may end up undermining the left’s broader political agenda. And some of Europe’s libertarian cultural propensities have already clashed with the cultural illiberalism of some of the new immigrant communities.

Should Muslim immigrants not assimilate and instead develop a strong communal identification along religious lines, one consequence might be a resurgence of traditional ethnonational identities in some states-or the development of a new European identity defined partly in contradistinction to Islam (with the widespread resistance to the extension of fill EU membership to Turkey being a possible harbinger of such a shift).

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

SINCE ETHNONATIONALISM is a direct consequence of key elements of modernization, it is likely to gain ground in societies undergoing such a process. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that it remains among the most vital-and most disruptive-forces in many parts of the contemporary world.

More or less subtle forms of ethnonationalism, for example, are ubiquitous in immigration policy around the globe. Many countries including Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Serbia, and Turkey-provide automatic or rapid citizenship to the members of diasporas of their own dominant ethnic group, if desired. Chinese immigration law gives priority and benefits to overseas Chinese. Portugal and Spain have immigration policies that favor applicants from their former colonies in the New World.

Still other states, such as Japan and Slovakia, provide official forms of identification to members of the dominant national ethnic group who are noncitizens that permit them to live and work in the country.

Americans, accustomed by the U.S. government’s official practices to regard differential treatment on the basis of ethnicity to be a violation of universalist norms, often consider such policies exceptional, if not abhorrent. Yet in a global context, it is the insistence on universalist criteria that seems provincial.

Increasing communal consciousness and shifting ethnic balances are bound to have a variety of consequences, both within and between states, in the years to come. As economic globalization brings more states into the global economy, for example, the first fruits of that process will often fall to those ethnic groups best positioned by history or culture to take advantage of the new opportunities for enrichment, deepening social cleavages rather than filling them in. Wealthier and higher-achieving regions might try to separate themselves from poorer and lower-achieving ones, and distinctive homogeneous areas might try to acquire sovereignty — courses of action that might provoke violent responses from defenders of the status quo.

Of course, there are multiethnic societies in which ethnic consciousness remains weak, and even a more strongly developed sense of ethnicity may lead to political claims short of sovereignty.

Sometimes, demands for ethnic autonomy or self-determination can be met within an existing state. The claims of the Catalans in Spain, the Flemish in Belgium, and the Scots in the United Kingdom have been met in this manner, at least for now. But such arrangements remain precarious and are subject to recurrent renegotiation.

In the developing world, accordingly, where states are more recent creations and where the borders often cut across ethnic boundaries, there is likely to be further ethnic disaggregation and communal conflict. And as scholars such as Chaim Kaufmann have noted, once ethnic antagonism has crossed a certain threshold of violence, maintaining the rival groups within a single polity becomes far more difficult.

This unfortunate reality creates dilemmas for advocates of humanitarian intervention in such conflicts, because making and keeping peace between groups that have come to hate and fear one another is likely to require costly ongoing military missions rather than relatively cheap temporary ones. When communal violence escalates to ethnic cleansing, moreover, the return of large numbers of refugees to their place of origin after a cease-fire has been reached is often impractical and even undesirable, for it merely sets the stage for a further round of conflict down the road.

Partition may thus be the most humane lasting solution to such intense communal conflicts. It inevitably creates new flows of refugees, but at least it deals with the problem at issue. The challenge for the international community in such cases is to separate communities in the most humane manner possible: by aiding in transport, assuring citizenship rights in the new homeland, and providing financial aid for resettlement and economic absorption. The bill for all of this will be huge, but it will rarely be greater than the material costs of interjecting and maintaining a foreign military presence large enough to pacify the rival ethnic combatants or the moral cost of doing nothing.

Contemporary social scientists who write about nationalism tend to stress the contingent elements of group identity-the extent to which national consciousness is culturally and politically manufactured by ideologists and politicians. They regularly invoke Benedict Anderson’s concept of “imagined communities,” as if demonstrating that nationalism is constructed will rob the concept of its power. It is true, of course, that ethnonational identity is never as natural or ineluctable as nationalists claim. Yet it would be a mistake to think that because nationalism is partly constructed it is therefore fragile or infinitely malleable.
Ethnonationalism was not a chance detour in European history: it corresponds to some enduring propensities of the human spirit that are heightened by the process of modern state creation, it is a crucial source of both solidarity and enmity, and in one form or another, it will remain for many generations to come. One can only profit from facing it directly.

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Richard Cohen: Angela Merkel is a better leader for America than Donald Trump

Steve Sailer writes: I wanted to go back to a Washington Post piece from last September 14th by veteran Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen, who more or less represents Washington centrism. I think it’s kind of revealing about some of the reasons of rhetorical momentum why the globalist establishment can’t restrain its drift toward extremism on Open Borders:

Angela Merkel is a better leader for America than Donald Trump

By Richard Cohen Opinion writer September 14, 2015

It has come to this: The leading Republican presidential candidate struts like a martinet and has taken on the persona, if not the rhetoric, of a hater, while the leader of Germany, an altogether humble woman of clear moral vision, is performing in the Western tradition of enlightened tolerance. How did we lose this war? …

You can imagine — or can you? — what the world would be like if German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked like Trump. Instead of leading her country in a righteous humanitarian cause, instead of assuring Germans that they really have the wherewithal to take in anywhere from 800,000 to 1 million migrants, what if she had seized the political opening? What if she denounced the migrants as rapists and criminals — concluding, of course, with the oily lie that, as harsh it may sound, it is the truth?

Or maybe Merkel would promise to build a wall — as impregnable as the one Trump promises for Mexico — across Germany’s eastern borders. Look, she could say, it has been done — a wall down the middle of Berlin, separating east from west, and it worked. …

At bottom, the difference between the leading Republican candidate and the leading German is an appreciation of history. Merkel knows that the new Europe skates on the thinnest of ice. She knows that Europe is awful at dealing with minorities. She knows that ethnic peace has been achieved by ethnic cleansing and population transfers that the Nazis and the Soviets initiated and the World War II victors continued. Winston Churchill had it about right when he told the House of Commons in 1944 that “expulsion is the method which, insofar as we have been able to see, will be the most satisfactory and lasting. There will be no mixture of populations to cause endless trouble. . . . A clean sweep will be made.”

That clean sweep is now being unmade. France is anywhere from 8 to 10 percent Muslim; for Austria, Belgium and Germany, the figure is upward of 5 percent. In France, the large numbers of Muslims (and black Africans) live in the banlieues, suburban slums where radicalism and crime fester. Germany has a substantial Turkish community. With more Muslims on the way, the ethnic equilibrium of Europe will be tested. Some politicians will no doubt take advantage. Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, is building a fence topped with razor wire in an effort “to keep Europe Christian.” As any forlorn village priest can attest, it is far too late for that.

Merkel understands what Trump does not: that to pander to prejudice is to reap the whirlwind. His scapegoating of immigrants is playing with fire. We are a tolerant nation, but our better angels have sometimes flown the coop. We incarcerated Japanese Americans during World War II, locked our doors to desperate European Jews running from Hitler, enslaved black people and held them in peonage, and nearly eradicated the Native Americans. Unlike Germany, which unflinchingly stares at a history both repellent and frightening, for the longest time we either shamelessly ignored our history or rewrote it to conform to myth. On an airplane recently, I watched a bit of “Gone With the Wind.” Its depiction of slavery made me retch.

Donald Trump is rebuked by Angela Merkel. She has the political gravitas that he lacks and the respect for history that he disdains. It has indeed come to this: A German leader is showing American politicians how to be an American.

Okay, well, obviously Cohen was motivated by the common It’s Always 1933 in Europe fetish, but I want to focus on Cohen’s focus upon the winners’ actions in 1944-1946 to remake the map of Eastern Europe: the ethnic cleansing of about 12 million of the German losers from Eastern Europe:

She knows that Europe is awful at dealing with minorities. She knows that ethnic peace has been achieved by ethnic cleansing and population transfers that the Nazis and the Soviets initiated and the World War II victors continued. Winston Churchill had it about right when he told the House of Commons in 1944 that “expulsion is the method which, insofar as we have been able to see, will be the most satisfactory and lasting. There will be no mixture of populations to cause endless trouble. . . . A clean sweep will be made.”

That clean sweep is now being unmade. France is anywhere from 8 to 10 percent Muslim; for Austria, Belgium and Germany, the figure is upward of 5 percent.

Inviting in million of Muslims into northern Europe will right the wrongs committed by Europeans against each other 70 years ago in the formation of contemporary Poland, that repulsively non-diverse country. You see, to not want to invite in Muslims is not only to endorse Hitler, but also to endorse Stalin.

Or something like that.

There seems to be a growing urge among Establishment voices to demonize as immoral the desire to let sleeping dogs lie.

For example, the ethnic cleansing of Germans at the end of World War II is one of the sleepiest sleeping dogs of them all.

If you asked me, I’d say, Well, throwing all the Germans out of Poland and moving the Polish border 200 miles into Germany was bad, and I’m against it being done back then and all that, but, holy cow, let’s not get into that now. What’s done is done and Eastern Europe is settled.

But that kind of prudence is increasingly out of fashion.

Maybe we should call it the Inglourious Basterdization of elite opinion: the urge is growing to go back into the past and Kill Hitler (and, okay, to be fair about it, Stalin, too). Granted, advances in time machine technology haven’t been wholly satisfactory yet, so therefore we should give anybody who shows up claiming to have some analogy to being like Jews in Hitler’s Europe, well, we should give them Europe … even if they are anti-Semites who would consider it disgusting to claim to be kind of like Jews.

Because Hitler.

By the way, I know race does not exist genetically and all that because race is a social construction, but the socially constructed current border between Poland and German is a racial/genetic border, too, because race can be socially constructed if you have enough T-34s.

Hum Genet. 2005 Sep;117(5):428-43. Epub 2005 Jun 16.

Significant genetic differentiation between Poland and Germany follows present-day political borders, as revealed by Y-chromosome analysis.

Abstract
To test for human population substructure and to investigate human population history we have analysed Y-chromosome diversity using seven microsatellites (Y-STRs) and ten binary markers (Y-SNPs) in samples from eight regionally distributed populations from Poland (n = 913) and 11 from Germany (n = 1,215). Based on data from both Y-chromosome marker systems, which we found to be highly correlated (r = 0.96), and using spatial analysis of the molecular variance (SAMOVA), we revealed statistically significant support for two groups of populations: (1) all Polish populations and (2) all German populations. By means of analysis of the molecular variance (AMOVA) we observed a large and statistically significant proportion of 14% (for Y-SNPs) and 15% (for Y-STRs) of the respective total genetic variation being explained between both countries. The same population differentiation was detected using Monmonier’s algorithm, with a resulting genetic border between Poland and Germany that closely resembles the course of the political border between both countries. The observed genetic differentiation was mainly, but not exclusively, due to the frequency distribution of two Y-SNP haplogroups and their associated Y-STR haplotypes: R1a1*, most frequent in Poland, and R1*(xR1a1), most frequent in Germany. We suggest here that the pronounced population differentiation between the two geographically neighbouring countries, Poland and Germany, is the consequence of very recent events in human population history, namely the forced human resettlement of many millions of Germans and Poles during and, especially, shortly after World War II. …

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* Should Europe be Jordanized?

Jordanian population is 80% Palestinian because of the Nakba.

Cohen-ian logic applied to history goes as follows.

Jewish policy driving out 800,00o Palestinians: necessary and progressive.

But….

suppose Jordan had refused to take in Palestinian refugees caused by Zionist policy.

Why, Jordanians would have been like the Nazis.

Jordan had to pay the demographic price for Zionist actions.

And how does Cohenian logic work today?

Zionist-Globalist foreign policy messes up Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, & Syria and leads to the deaths of 100,00os and the displacement of millions of people: No Problem! It’s just spreading democracy and western values.

But…

If Europeans say NO to this deluge? They are like Nazis.

Cohenian logic in action.

If Cohen takes over someone’s house, steals all the property, and kicks him out into the cold, that is not a problem. If anything, we should praise Cohen and defend his action.

But if you won’t take in this homeless victim of Cohen, YOU are the Nazi.

What a truly vile son of a bitch.
I wonder if he’s just morally blind or sociopathic in his lies and hypocrisy.

————-

What should recent Western policy toward the Middle East be called?

Mega-nakba, affecting pretty much all Arabs and Muslims in the region.

* Cohen has also been vehemently advocating for starting a humanitarian war in Syria.

* So with France at 10 percent muslim; and Austria, Belgium and Germany at 5 percent, it’s far too late to keep Europe Christian? Does that mean they should all just give up? It sounds like more of that theory of inevitability crap the Left is always pushing down our throats to get us to submit and stop resisting. It’s inevitable after all so stop wasting your time and get on the right side of history.

I wonder if Mr. Cohen thinks that it’s far too late to keep Israel a Jewish state since the muslim population is about 18 percent? If so he ought to tell the Israelis, I don’t think they feel it’s too late.

* Here’s a recent BBC interview with Marion Maréchal Le Pen which, you guessed it, spends lots of time fretting about the legacy of WW2 and anti-Semitism.

She describes her grandfather as a “not a conservative but a right-wing anarchist” which sounds right.

* I have watched the movie “Ex Machina” 6 times. It is great in every way. I know what happens at the end, yet still, I cannot quit rooting for the robots. I feel it is the same for people who cannot quit rooting for “immigrants” illegal and legal. It is self defeating in the extreme, but some people are hardwired for it.

* Mr. Cohen’s “respect for history” seems to lack so much as a scintilla of grasp of fourteen centuries of Islam’s bloody aggressive wars of conquest, Islam’s genocide of Armenians and other races, and Islam’s still-imposed slavery, intolerance, stigmatization, humiliation and extortion of other faiths in Moslem lands. Perhaps by attempting to enter Saudi Arabia while wearing a kippah and Star of David pendant Mr. Cohen might test Islamic “tolerance”?

* From Philly.com, Jan 21, 2016:

Philadelphia City Council returned Thursday for its first meeting of the new term. […] [A] nonbinding resolution was offered suggesting that two Muslim holidays become official city and School District holidays.

Speaking before a chamber packed with men wearing Muslim prayer caps and women wearing hijabs, Councilman Curtis Jones Jr. said an acquaintance had questioned his timing, considering the recent shooting of a Philadelphia police officer by a man who said he was acting on behalf of Islam and the tension surrounding calls for Muslims to be banned from entry to the United States.

After Council passed the resolution on a voice vote with no dissent, many of those supporters celebrated by saying, “Allahu akbar,” Arabic for “God is the greatest.”

The resolution urges the city and the School District to make the holidays official.

It received initial support from Mayor Kenney.

The two holidays in question are Eid al-Fitr, celebrated after the monthlong observance of Ramadan, and Eid al-Adha, celebrated at the conclusion of the annual Hajj pilgrimage.

Philadelphia, which has an estimated 200,000 Muslims, would not be the first city to add the holidays to the official calendar. Schools in New York City added them to the academic calendar last year.

Posted in Europe, France, Germany, Immigration, Islam, Israel, Jews, Poland | Comments Off on Richard Cohen: Angela Merkel is a better leader for America than Donald Trump

Steve Sailer: Brush Up His Spanish: Julian Castro Preps to be Hillary’s Veep

Steve Sailer writes:

One interesting aspect is that the Castro twins, are as far as I can tell from searching out their long lost illegitimate father (a retired schoolteacher in San Antonio), are representative mestizo Mexican-Americans, which might (or might not) be important in a business where so many Hispanic celebrities are either almost all white or are significantly black, but are seldom notably mestizo.

But, weirdly, they look more sort of Filipino than Mexican.

Also, I’ve never seen an explanation of why Julian is the Anointed One rather than identical twin Joaquín. Perhaps a political consultant decided at some point that Joaquín’s name was too hard for Anglos to spell properly?

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* Out of all the crazy things going on in our politics today this is the probably the most offensive & pathetic thing to date.

This man has no experience & with Clinton’s age could very well be POTUS of the USA. How cynical do you have to be to potentially saddle the country with the most unqualified POTUS ever?

This is a microcosm of the inanity of the modern democrat party where identity trumps merit or the well being of the country. I only hope they go down in flames this November. This is absolutely appalling.

* I doubt if Hispanic voters are going to be voting for people who say things like, “Mee casa, soo casa” whether in a broad Midwestern accent or like an authentic Mehikano.

I watch a little bit of Univision frequently, just to aid my comprehension, and I note three things: (1) being able to come to the US, or stay, or return, is an important plot point. (2) Bilingualism is also an issue, even showing up in commercials. (3) Despite the carrying on about Mestizos, the vast majority of the people on this network (which presumably caters to all Hispanoamericanos) look like they just got off a plane from Madrid.

This tells me that Spanish speakers in the US are (1) anxious about their status, (2) want to assimilate but also keep track of their roots, (3) aspire to be Spaniards.

The other thing I would note is that, unlike American television, virtually everyone is straight and looking to hook up with someone of the opposite sex. In addition, the women are always dressed to kill, and act that way, too. Say what you like, but it is refreshing.

* I haven’t watched any telenovelas recently, but — at least up until a few years ago — the standard plot-line was:

episode-1) Boy meets girl
episodes 2 – 25) Boy gets distracted by various sultry temptresses with heaving bosoms while girl gets distracted by various ultra-macho caballeros
episode-26) Boy and girl get married by a priest (or maybe even by the Bishop) in a grand colonial church with a lot of white doves fluttering around.

Hard to criticize, really.

* Another observation on Latin American TV: It’s dumber than a box of rocks. Seriously. I would say that the typical show is pitched at an IQ level of about 94-95. Watching it makes one long for the Anglo middlebrow.

* Telenovelas are aimed at about 85 IQ.

A nice popular comedy show like Chespirito or La Hora Pico is aimed at 95.

Cantinflas used to be aimed at 105 IQ if you wanted to get most of the jokes. His old comedies are still great.

But most popular American TV isn’t exactly The Wire or Arrested Development either.

* You’re being charitably generous with your target audience IQ estimates. But the real 190 IQ stuff comes into play with don Fernando’s Sábado Gigante variety show on Univision. Don Fernando is an uber successful Jewish Chilean national TV personality who has parlayed a gift of babaso gab into a mega fortune entertaining 80 IQ Mesoamericans whilst playing grab-ass on stage with some of the hottest Hispanic hotties to be found anywhere.

* Castro has the gayface. He’s the Hispanic Lindsey Graham.

* Why wasn’t Villaretardo in the mix? Couldn’t climb down off a Telemundo reporter long enough to qualify?

* If Hillary picks Castro, you’ll know right away that she’s learned nothing and doesn’t have it anymore. Lots of Democratic advisors believe the same nonsense that Republicans who wanted Rubio did. If Hillary can’t outthink them, she’s going nowhere.

To win the election, Hillary just needs to seize a couple swing states. Even against Trump, her most dangerous challenge, she needs only one or two with her structural advantages in Electoral College. Pick Sen. Warner or Sen. Kaine and she has Virginia locked down. Against any Republican but Trump, that’s the election right there. Absolutely none of them can win without Virginia and those guys really know how to carry Virginia. (Both have been really popular governors before the Senate.)

Sure, they’re unfashionable old white men, but they’ll win the election for her.

Against Trump, Booker initially seems like a possible candidate, but I’m pretty sure you can’t motivate the Black vote in America by picking a gay Black man. Black voters haven’t yet read the memo about how Democrats must venerate the gays above all else.

Trump might put PA or even MI or WI or NJ into play to overcome VA. Still, locking down VA makes Trump’s job much harder.

* This silly article demonstrates that the growing disconnect between the various elites in this country and the mass of ordinary people has reached intimidatingly dangerous levels. Historically, this kind of divide has been a harbinger of revolution.

* Don’t go see the movie Brooklyn unless you want to get very sad about how nice things used to be. The America of that time was like the beautiful young Irish lass with sparkling eyes. In a short time America turned into an ugly, old, decrepit Red Foxx telling vulgar jokes.

* I wonder how many times Steve had to interrupt the writing of this piece to laugh out loud at the prospect of–Did I read the name correctly: Julian CASTRO??–as Lady MacRodham’s veep. Steve, I commend you for your professionalism in being able to purse your lips, grit your teeth, suppress a snicker and forge ahead.

* I know nothing of Cory Booker other than Wikipedia.
At 46, he never married, and dates Gayle King (61 year old), Oprah Winfrey’s best friend. Gayle King’s Wikipedia page does not mention Booker at all.

A few minutes ago, I showed Booker’s photo to three of my blue collar African-American male employees. They immediately said he was gay because of his soft face and lack of facial hair. Conversation went down hill from there.

* Half of me thinks this is an affected thing for her [Sarah Palin]. If you’ll recall, she didn’t speak in that manner when she was first picked from relative obscurity by McCain – most notably, her RNC speech sent a shiver down the Democrats’ spines (imagining they had spines). She’s sort of adopted the persona of the parodic, SNL version of herself. My theory is that the attacks against her (which, if you recall, were horrendous and media-led) made her cynical and limited any further political career advancement. At the same time, when people attacked her, they were also attacking the broad swath of America and specifically the women who identify with her. She realized that she could monetize this phenomenon and thereafter the cookier, malapropist Palin emerged precisely because it attracted the sneering condescension of the elites. It forms the basis of her ongoing popularity, which she has managed to extend well beyond the short time horizon other losing VP candidates have enjoyed (cf. Lieberman and Edwards, for example).

So, in effect she’s playing a character that the elites love to hate, thus keeping her in the spotlight, and her constituency (feeling, rightly, insulted themselves by proxy) come to her defense at which time she can sell them reality TV shows and books. She’s managed to become very wealthy by way of politics without even spending very much time in the perfunctory elected governmental jobs that usually come before the wealth. She lifehacked politics.

* You ever get the feeling the old progressive/liberal Wasp and Jewish elite finds the intellectual and political mediocrity of POC an unambiguous feature, despite such embarrassments as the Castros? Despite stepping right into our bizarre ethno-political set-up, they are inept at organizing and advocating for themselves. Their imagined place is an inferior one, in a one-party America run by, our elites imagine, their grandchildren.

Charles Manson thought he’d provoke a race war in the Sixties, and when blacks took over but found themselves unable to govern he and his hippies would emerge from the desert to run things for them. Basically the Democratic Party’s plan for the next twenty years. God help us.

Posted in America, Latino | Comments Off on Steve Sailer: Brush Up His Spanish: Julian Castro Preps to be Hillary’s Veep

The Female Orgasm

Chaim Amalek writes: “Some things are best left to women to deal with. It is no more a man’s business if a woman has an orgasm than it is a Somali’s business that Swedish American teenagers are learning torah in public school.”

Posted in Feminism | Comments Off on The Female Orgasm

Michael Bloomberg Contemplates Running For President

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* What does Michael Bloomberg imagine is his constituency outside of New York? Maybe: “People who want a billionaire president, but not a populist billionaire, the other kind, the kind with contempt for non-billionaires.”

* I’m sure all five of Bloomberg’s supporters are excited.

Maybe one of the Koch brothers or Haim Saban can run too. Heck, make it like the California recall election against Gray Davis. Everyone from a porn star (look alike “Mary Carey”) to Ahnuld to Gary Coleman ran.

* “Why shouldn’t I run for president?” muses Michael Bloomberg. “Michael Dukakis was 5′ 8″ too, and he ran for president.”

* I wonder how Trump would campaign against Bloomberg. Bloomberg is the one guy I can imagine Trump holding back against and being deferential towards in the campaign. Bloomberg is a lot richer and more powerful than Trump, and specifically in Trump’s own home base of NYC. If Trump really pissed him off, Bloomberg could make business a lot harder for Trump. Moreover, Trump’s family all went into the same business in NYC, so falling out of Bloomberg’s good graces would impact their prospects as well.

* Trump is more famous for the Apprentice, his books and media persona than for being a developer. There are lots of very wealthy, but little-known real estate developers. So if Trump wins, he’ll really become the second celebrity president after Reagan. There’ve been lots of other celebrity pols – Jesse Ventura, Arnold, Sonny Bono, etc. I have a question: was Reagan the first celebrity politician, meaning the first person to win an election who got famous in entertainment or sports?

* George Murphy was elected U.S. Senator from California two years before Reagan became governor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Murphy

Davy Crockett?

Playwright Richard Brinsley Sheridan (“The School for Scandal”) became an M.P. and famous orator in Parliament.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Brinsley_Sheridan

Clare Booth Luce went into the House in the 1940s after her play “The Women” had been a big hit on Broadway and on screen in 1939.

* Bloomberg is one of the most impressive entrepreneurs ever. He basically started an Internet company in the early ’80s, while raising so little outside capital that he still owns ~85% of it today. He was also a good mayor. But he’s more suited to running Singapore than America.

* I’ve seen Bloomberg a few times in NY, he’s more like 5’6”. Really small guy.

He won’t run. He’d split the anti-gun, open borders, and liberal elitist vote, which could quite literally turn the entire electoral map Red. We’re talking over 500 electoral votes could go Republican.

He’s smart and pragmatic enough to realize that after he does some polling, so he won’t run.

His lane is very narrow: the fiscally efficient liberal authoritarian. Can’t win the White House, but he was actually a decent mayor.

* “The other 49 states”

You can thank George W Bush for that. He was a truly transformative president! Before he came along, rural Southern Real ‘Muricans were the authentic voice of the nation. As late as 2004, after Kerry’s loss, Nick Kristof was telling Democrats that they need to nominate a Southerner, like John Edwards, to win.

W almost single-handedly destroyed the Real ‘Murica brand. Its macho posturing is now associated with “Bring It On” stupidity. Its talk of values reminds people of wide stances and meth-fueled orgies with gay hookers. Its claim to sober, down-to-earth competence reminds people of Great-Job-Brownie, the Iraq occupational authority and the Great Recession.

* Sounds to me like Bloomberg is trying desperately to save his legacy.

1. He only got elected on the basis of 9/11 .

The NY Mayoral election was in the fall of 2001. Rudy Giuliani was term-limited out, and Mark Green was leading the polls, despite Rudy stumping for Bloomberg. NY, after having their carrots-and-peas with Rudy, were done, and wanted the dessert with a good commie like Green.

But 9/11 happened, and Rudy went from “eh, we needed him” to National Hero. NYC paid homage and elected Rudy’s chosen successor just a scant time later.

2. Bloomberg’s policies didn’t rankle too many feathers because the money was flowing. He had an amazing ability to avoid scandal, despite some really bad slip ups. Out of town during the worst blizzard (at the time) on record and the city falls apart? Not a big deal! All your deputies from out of town and actually live and work in DC? Not a big deal! Slashing through term limits? Not a big deal!

Dude was immune because he knew the rules: keep the streets safe with Broken Windows and keep it all clean and paved with Wall Street money.

3. But then, Bloomy tried to step outside NYC with gun control and failed miserably. The NRA loves having his Mayors Against Guns around—they are the Washington Generals. They are a perfect example of insular urban left-wing blue-state thinking that doesn’t play in 90% of America. It must really kill Bloomy that he’s so rich and respected in NYC but outside of it he can’t just buy himself the gun laws he wants. The nerve of the hoi polloi having different opinions from him!

Please run Bloomy! I want to see a Trump landslide!

* Bloomberg consistently loses local elections across the nation despite greatly outspending his opponents. The colorado recall elections for two state senators or the recent state elections in Virginia are examples of how unpopular Bloomberg is. In colorado, bloomberg outspent the pro recall side by a seven to one ratio in two districts that had gone for obama the year before by roughly twenty points – and his candidate narrowly lost one race and got blown out by double digits in the other.

As said above, bloomberg could possibly deliver all but maybe four or five states to the GOP. If I was a republican, I would do my best to insult and anger bloomberg into losing his temper and running third party.

* I think we’re all aware that what’s really been ailing this nation these last 20 or 30 years has been insufficient p0litical attention to the needs of Wall Street billionaires.

* He was a decent mayor because he wisely continued the law and order policies regarding crime that were initiated by his predecessor, Rudy Guiliani. This after the fact “he was a good mayor” well yeah, and he also inherited all the goodwill post-9/11. Let’s not forget that his first term started in Jan. of ’02.

He happened to inherit a NY that had very low crime rates, mainly due to Rudy’s superb policies and the fact that the city had come back from the dark days of Denkins’ single term. All he had to do was not fix what wasn’t broke. And thankfully he had the good sense to do that.

But running for president? Why would he want to do that? For what? To confiscate guns? To ban soda nationally? To, to…..do what exactly? Sanders already supports most of what he wants to do from a domestic policy perspective so they basically would cancel each other out. Would be a devil of a time for libs nationally. “Which hard leftist quasi socialist candidate do you really want to vote for?” If only Ralph Nader could be persuaded to make a comeback and then they’d have the triple crown.

Unless privately behind the scenes, Bloomberg’s people are quietly reaching out to Clinton to persuade her to drop out, but why would she do that? She’s been waiting for nearly ten years and its finally her time, and her turn.

Lets see: Bloomberg = 74; Clinton =ca.70; Sanders=73. Yep, not for nothing are those Dems known as the party of the future.

Oh, maybe Ralph’s angling to be Sanders’ running mate. And Sanders-Nader would be the ideal leftist ticket.

PS: As Ralph will be 82yrs old on Feb. 27, that definitely would make Bernie the youngster with the bold, new, fresh ideas. Yep, a Sanders-Nader ticket could be just what the nation needs at this crucial time, right at the crossroads for deciding the direction for its future.

* How could Bloomberg possibly obtain inside information about anything? It’s not like he owns a vast network of communications devices that he rents out to important people.

* Trump is a long time economic nationalist.He was spouting off about China and free trade 20 years ago. I’ll bet his books might mention it. Against illegal immigration goes along with against awful trade deals.

* I suspect some grifting consultants have told him that in the event of a Trump or Cruz vs. Sanders match a moderate route opens. Except Trump isn’t that conservative and the other two would have deep sizable support of their own. The GOP vote would remain relatively intact while Dems would be more split.

Since the GOP controls the House & the most state legislatures around the country they’d pick the winner in event of no one picks 270.

There’s some conspiracy theory floating around that the House would actually pick Bloomberg in this scenario.

* Bloomberg will run if Trump and Sanders are the nominee. He can then go ‘moderate’ and pick up some votes. Since Trump is seen as far-right due to his ethnic views and Sanders as far-left due to his economic views, Bloomberg then becomes the reasonable candidate. He does seem more serious/boring/mainstream than Sanders and Trump in many ways. The 2nd amendment people are likely going for Trump anyway.

It’s not that Americans are hungering for blue-state billionaire presidents, it’s that a blue-state billionaire might seem a better pick than a self-described socialist with funny hair and, well, Trump. If you’re not boiling mad about immigration as many people here are, Trump doesn’t seem that presidential. I enjoy his poking political correctness–I’d love to see him get a late-night show– but what if we get into a spat with Putin or Xi Jinping and he flies off the handle?

BTW, this would give us a race between two Jews and a guy who let his daughter marry one.

As everyone here has said, he is basically just to the right of Hillary and essentially represents the interests of the elite class. So he won’t run if Hillary wins. And he’s smart enough to know that.

* Bloomberg has made it clear that his plan is to run if it appears neither Rubio nor Clinton will be nominated. There is little doubt, then, about the why: he wants to make sure there’s a Wall Street/Bankster/Cheap Labor Lobby candidate running.

He’s pro-abortion, pro-gun control, and pro-open borders. While his candidacy would quite likely hurt the Democrat more than the Republican I doubt that would factor into his calculations, since Sanders would almost certainly lose to Trump or Cruz anyway.

* I remember when he floated this idea last time and all his buddies in the media peddled soft articles in favor it. One editorial-posted-as-news said Bloomberg is “the kind of outsider Washington needs” I think it was Glen Greenwald who quipped “Yeah, a pro-Iraq war, Pro-Israel open borders billionaire from Wall street- just the sort “outsider” Washington needs”.

* “W” was a terrible president who did incalculable damage, but one thing I don’t blame him for was the Federal response to Hurricane Katrina. That was just a demonstration of how poorly government handles any emergency. The government response to tropical storm Sandy was no better, but the media chose not to highlight that.

Bush got savaged over Katrina so that the media could avoid talking about the appalling, anarchic behavior of blacks when the system breaks down for a few days. That topic must be avoided at all costs.

* The vote is usually about 50/50 Republican/Democrat. If Bloomberg can peel off about half of Dems it’s possible he could get enough Republican voters to make it a competitive race with Trump or Cruz. I don’t think there’s any scenario where a Bloomberg candidacy helps Sanders.

The non-establishment Republican candidates combined are currently polling around 70%. It’s pretty clear that a non-establishment candidate is what the GOP voters want. At best maybe 30% of them could be swayed to vote for Bloomberg, but after they see where Bloomberg stands on pretty much everything the best he can hope for is 20-25% of GOP voters, and I think that’s being very generous. So the national popular vote could go 37-37-25, with Bloomberg and the Republican tied. If that’s what the polls are showing a week before the election do Democrats abandon Bernie in droves? In that case you can sum up the race with two poll numbers: the % of Democrats who stick with Bernie vs. the % of Republicans who hate Cruz/Trump enough to vote for Bloomberg. I think at least 20-30% of Democrats would remain loyal Bernie voters no matter what, and it’s possible, but unlikely, that many Republicans would abandon Trump or Cruz.

The presidential election is really 51 separate races, though, and on a state by state level I don’t see how Bloomberg pulls it off.

* The media uses a lot of unflattering shots of Trump, and he does have kind of a rubbery face and is over-expressive in speeches. But no, he has loads of physical presence when he needs to turn on the gravitas.

* Haven’t you previously noted that we haven’t had many short presidents since James Madison (5′ 4″)? The most recent president as short as 5′ 8″ was William McKinley. According to Wikipedia, the average height of presidents in the last 100 years has been six feet.

* I can’t think of any town in American history other than NYC where its mayors think that their office automatically makes them a national figure. Chicago comes close, but that’s it. L.A. has cultural influence, but its political power has never appeared to me to be all that strong. It’s symbolic power seems to me to have been reflective of California’s as a whole during the postwar boom through the 1990′s, not really as an independent entity. I wonder if some of this may have had to do with what Steve has been pointing out: Southern Cal’s small govt, low regulation strategy turning out to be ineffective in the face of more interventionist government that actually keeps things in favor an a elite that has a progressive veneer.

NYC’s role in national politics may have been small in the early days of this country, but since the Civil War it has been tremendous.

Even with Portland and Seattle emerging as strong cultural centers, the reassertion of the East Coast over the West Coast is really remarkable.

Posted in America | Comments Off on Michael Bloomberg Contemplates Running For President

Is Trump Good For Israel?

A Jewish friend tells me: He is good for Israel, for sure. He’s just not good for neocons. The neocons don’t understand that because they don’t understand that they themselves are not good for Israel. They are not good for Israel because they are not willing to understand that the interests of the US are not the same as Israel. So they promote policy that helps neither country since the only way to ameliorate the difference in interests is to serve neither, but rather to create an umbrella interest of nonsense, like “spreading democracy” to the Arab world. Someone like Trump will do much, much better because he will be honest to himself about crafting policy, in terms of winners and losers.

It’s important that intelligent Orthodox Jews understand that pretending American and Israel interests are the same ends up harming Israel.

Posted in Israel | Comments Off on Is Trump Good For Israel?

Charles Murray’s “Human Accomplishment” Database Is Now Online

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* Much like this year’s Oscars, blacks have (almost entirely) boycotted Murray’s data set: only 5 entries out of 4000.

* Beethoven being tied with Mozart, and Bach a close third, does sound about right, but I do have difficulties believing Wagner was a close fourth at 80/100 (even if I do love his music).

* Remember the Saturday Night Live 1970s sketch, “What if Napoleon had had a B-52 at the battle of Waterloo?” At the end of that we were promised an exposition of the question, “What if God and Superman had a fight?”

Unfortunately, many of the reviews of Human Accomplishment tended to focus on the relative merit of the top 10 or 20 picks. Human Accomplishment introduced (to me at least) the idea of the Lottke Curve; that even high competence is rare, but the supreme competence of certain individuals (e.g., Jack Nicklaus in golf) borders on the superhuman.

* Right: these lists are useful for providing you with fairly unbiased lists for coming up with new hypotheses. For example, going down Murray’s composer list and reading their biographies on Wikipedia, I noticed that a large fraction of the top composers who weren’t the sons of musicians (Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, etc.) were slated by their families to study either law (Wagner, Stravinsky, etc.) or medicine (Berlioz etc.). It makes sense now that I think about it: a large fraction of top composers came from upper middle class backgrounds (Haydn was a rare exception); and down through the centuries, doctor and lawyer were the most common professions to study for. So, a common event in the lives of great composers when young men is the struggle with their families over whether or not they’d give up this music nonsense and buckle down to studying law / medicine.

(But Wagner really is a giant comparable in influence to Beethoven, Mozart, and Bach, although the earlier composers are less long-winded and thus less daunting these days.)

* The angels play Bach for God and Mozart for themselves.

* That’s clever, but about backwards theologically, if one is speaking of the God who experienced the pathos of the cross. Bach’s almost all Easter and very little Good Friday. Mozart’s Requiem is all about Mark 15:34.

* It’s just a matter of time before some commenter says it’s David Bowie.

* Chaim Amalek: “Angels playing Bach? Mozart? What have Bach and Mozart to do with Yiddishkeit? Nothing. For real Yidden, the sound of the cantor singing prayers that were given to Moshe Rabenu on Mt. Sinai is the sweetest music possible. Bach and Mozart are for goyim.”

* Murray concludes that the rate of individual achievement was highest in the period 1600-1900 and declined after 1900. It is couterintuitive but it is what he gets from his data.

* A 20-year old German student was killed after being pushed in front of a train in the Berlin underground. Killer is a 28-year old Iranian refugee who had already stabbed a man at age 14. Unfortunately he’s been in Germany a while so not a Merkeljugend, but if any good comes out of the tragedy it’s that more and more eyes are being opened.

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Championship Sunday!

Comments to Steve Sailer:

* Don’t forget two important things about the point spread:

1) It’s not a prediction! Bookies don’t really care which team wins or by how much.

2) Ultimately, the wise guys in Vegas don’t set the point spread- bettors do.

A point spread that corresponds closely to the real final score of a game can be disastrous for bookies, and a point spread that’s absurdly off as a prediction can still make bookies tons of money.

The only purpose of a point spread is to ensure that a roughly equal amount of money is best on both teams. As long as that happens, the bookies are happy. If there’s just as much money bet on the Pats and the Broncos at kickoff time, then the odds makers were right to make the Pats a 3 point favorite, even if the Broncos end up winning 49-0.

By contrast, if the great majority of bettors take the Pats, and the Pats win 30-28, that point spread will be a disaster for bookies, even though it was a pretty accurate prediction of the final score.

* Brady’s QB rating this year is way up there, despite the fact that he lost Edelmann and Gronk around week 11 or whatever it was, and only got them back for last week’s game. His numbers have rarely looked better.

The Pats can definitely knock off the Broncos (Brady lacked Edelmann and lost Gronk vs. Broncos and still almost won that game). The real question is would they have it easier vs. the Cardinals or the Panthers? Panthers secondary looks pretty weak, but they look strong otherwise. But so do the Cards. I do wonder about Newton. His rating hovered in the mid eighties until this season, when it shot way up to like 99. Is he really that much better? How much did he benefit from having one of the easiest schedules in the NFL? He had the 2nd best O-Line in the NFL this year (best of the teams remaining) – and one of the best receiving tight ends, despite all the talk about “having no one around him” – which surely didn’t hurt. On the other hand, they sent the Seahawks packing last game, so we’ll see.

As for the Cards, they’re a good team. If they don’t blitz Newton too much today (they love to blitz but it has had zero statistical effect on Newton this year), and Palmer doesn’t choke, they have a good chance at a win. They look about as formidable as the Panthers, so really I guess it’s a toss-up from a Patriots POV. I think it’ll all be about how the ball bounces, like it was in the Panthers-Seahawks game (giving up a pick six is no way to start a playoff road game).

Funny thing is, I’ve been reading these “OMG Denver curse for Brady” pieces all week. Newton’s past performance, psych profile, etc? Nobody’s ever heard of it. Makes me wonder if the Panthers aren’t more vulnerable than the press is admitting. Makes sense, I guess; talking up the black guy is all up side and no down side, the reverse is the reverse.

* The media’s amusing, with their selective eye for stats.

How many “mobile” or “dual-threat” QBs have won super bowls, vs. pocket passers? Dead issue, as far as the media is concerned. I guess nobody wants to be responsible for the “stereotype threat” that ended Newton’s Run.

* Brady has not appeared less ageless as the season has gone on. He has appeared more weaponless, as basically his entire receiving core has been injured over the second half of the season. They are back now, however, and you could immediately see the difference during the KC game last week. Go Pats!

* An interesting question is to what extent Brady’s success is attributable to playing for the best coach and the best organization in football. My guess would be that at least 50% of it is.

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