* Trump’s had big problems with the Germanics and “nice” Midwesterners in general, the conservatives among which the “nice” factor, and their lack of exposure to real diversity, is keeping them from getting their heads outta their asses. (Several of my Iowa relatives are in this bucket, so I have at least some handle on the mentality.)
Trump could do the cause a world of good if he could learn to express hard anti-immigration, anti-diversity (like the muslim thing) in clear cogent logical language that comes off as thoughtful “more in sorrow than in anger” and appeals to the future–”what sort of America, with what sort of fault lines, divisions and contentions do we want to leave to our kids”. Post-Trump the “citizenist party” must learn to do this to bring “nice” white people–especially white moms–on board.
* Trump has already done enough for me. He’s kicked the table over and bloodied noses. He’s pantsed the entire political and media establishment of the USA. Pointed out their nakedness for everyone to hear. Shown the rewards that await populist candidates. Highlighted closed borders, fair trade, and political incorrectness as winners. He could win the White House and turn right around and stab us in the back on everything, and it wouldn’t change what he’s done already.
He put a lot of blood in the water. The establishment looks weak.
* What if Trump has a health breakdown after his heroic exertions of the last 9 months or there’s an embarrassing lawsuit against one of his business interests or there’s an anti-immigrant mass shooting or his tax returns have something embarrassing in them, like he’s not really all that rich?
The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House. They’ll be coming for the Donald with everything they’ve got.
It ought to be awfully entertaining, but don’t get your hopes of a Trump victory too inflated.
* I’ve concluded that that unfettered aspect of his personality that allows him to utter politically incorrect truths like we’re not getting Mexico’s best, President Bush was a disaster, we would be better off with Saddam Hussein still running Iraq, and maybe we should close down NATO goes along with his tendency to say things like Carly Fiorina is unattractive and he has no problem with his penis size. You get the complete package, as it were.
* “The Democrats used their control of The Narrative to damn near destroy a quiet black guy, Clarence Thomas, over a bunch of nothing, which helped put Bill and Hill in the White House.”
And even the HBO movie admitted Thomas didn’t lay a hand on her. With a total lack of irony, HBO shows a Ted Kennedy female staffer orchestrating the campaign against Clarence Thomas.
Speaking of Ted Kennedy, for those who weren’t around back then, or haven’t studied the Chappaquiddick Affair, his actions (or lack of) were far, far worse than generally known.
Yes, the MSM will come after The Donald with everything they’ve got.
* Cruz is less likely to fall below 40% than Trump is, but that’s about all the good news for Cruz. Assuming a healthy, unindicted Hillary, Cruz probably tops out a few points south of Romney’s 2012 performance.
Kasich might do well from a median voter theory standpoint, but would leak a lot of turnout from Trump and Cruz supporters. Ryan, too.
All sorts of people could beat Hillary if Hillary implodes, but against a strong Hillary, Trump is the high variance candidate who seems like he has more chance to actually beat a strong Hillary in a fair fight than anybody else doesn.
But he also has more chance to lose in a historic landslide that could take a lot of GOP officeholders down with him. So, a lot of GOP insiders are probably thinking: “What’s so bad about Ryan losing 55-45? I’ll keep my seat in 2016 and then we’ll tear it up in 2018. Let’s just keep the Obama Era dynamic going four more years.” You have to remember that the Obama Era has been pretty good for downticket Republican politicians and their staffers. Republican politicians have doing well in state legislatures, for example.
Crunch time for the GOP establishment is 2020, however, because that controls the gerrymandering before 2022. But, unlike 2010, when the GOP did well in state legislatures in a mid-term election, and thus got to do most of the gerrymandering, 2020 is a presidential election when Democrats remember to turn out.
* Oh sure, Trump can win delegates in those backward states where they allow people to vote. If you approve of that sort of thing. But Ted Cruz is the only candidate who can win the hearts and minds of party functionaries.
* The MSM will love The Donald. They aren’t going to write themselves out of the new Camelot. The MSM is about to become very, very conservative, in the sense of being a supporter of The Donald and all his works.
* Hillary’s mother lasted to 92. All of those who are hoping for divine intervention between now and November may be sorely disappointed. She really would have to die – any amount of illness will be concealed by her campaign and the press. If she was lying in intensive care it would be sold as “taking a few days off the campaign trail for some rest.”
