There was a saying in the Bush administration prior to the 2003 Iraq invasion: Everyone wants to take Baghdad but only real men want to take Tehran.
Baghdad was always the easier target. Iran is a different problem entirely.
Iraq in 2003 had a broken military, a population traumatized by sanctions and internal repression, and no serious geography to defend. The country sits on a flat alluvial plain. You could drive from Kuwait to Baghdad in days, and the Americans did. The air defenses were obsolete, the command structure was hollowed out, and large parts of the army simply walked away.
Iran is none of those things. It has three times the population, roughly the geographic size of Western Europe, serious mountain ranges along its western and northern borders, and a government that has spent forty years preparing for exactly this scenario. The Revolutionary Guards exist partly as a conventional fighting force and partly as an ideological army designed to keep fighting even if the regular military collapses. The doctrine is explicitly built around the idea that Iran cannot match American airpower, so it will make the cost of occupation or regime change unbearable through asymmetric pressure, proxy networks, and yes, Hormuz.
The saying also reflects something the Bush administration understood intellectually but chose to ignore in practice. Taking Baghdad was the easy part. Governing it was the catastrophe. Tehran would not even get to the governance phase before the problems started. Any serious ground campaign against Iran would face supply lines that stretch through some of the most difficult terrain in the Middle East, an enemy with genuine popular nationalism behind it, and a strategic depth that Iraq simply never had.
No serious military planner wanted to take Tehran. The line was less a boast than a warning dressed up as bravado.
- https://PayPal.Me/lukeisback
"Luke Ford reports all of the 'juicy' quotes, and has been doing it for years." (Marc B. Shapiro)
"This guy knows all the gossip, the ins and outs, the lashon hara of the Orthodox world. He’s an [expert] in... all the inner workings of the Orthodox world." (Rabbi Aaron Rakeffet-Rothkoff) LATEST POSTS:
- Dennis Prager v Cedars-Sinai Lawsuit
- Dennis Prager Through Randall Collins: Interaction Ritual Chains
- What is a ‘Received Idea’?
- Jordan Bardella: The Manufacture of Normality
- Everyone Became Television: Bourdieu’s Warning and the 2026 Iran War
- Marine Le Pen
- The Coalition-Proximity Rule
- Nigel Farage
- Bernard Haykel: A Life Between the Text and the Gun
- Walker Connor (1926-2017)
- Benedict Anderson and the Nation as Imagination
- Anthony D. Smith: The Student Who Kept the Question and Rejected the Answer
- Ernest Gellner
- Eric Kaufmann: The Man Who Made the Majority Visible
- Dominic Cummings: A Biography
- Steve Lopez: The Last City Columnist
- California Historian Kevin Starr
- Stephen Kotkin: A Life in Power
- William T. Vollmann: An American Life in Excess
- Rod Dreher: A Life in Exile
BEST POSTS:
- * The Enlightenment Wasn’t Enlightened (6-23-26)
* Mr. Burge Draws The Line (6-23-26)
* 'Improving on Democracy' (6-17-26)
* People Leak To People Who Are Fun (6-11-26)
* Why Does Australia Produce So Many Great Journalists? (6-11-26)
* Steve Wynn and the Press: Power, Litigation, and the Contest Over Las Vegas (6-3-26)
* Sheldon Adelson and the Journalists (6-3-26)
* The Vigilant Animal: Thinkers Who Reject the Myth of Human Gullibility (6-2-26)
* The Cost of Refusing the Misunderstanding Myth (6-2-26)
* Show Me How It Travels (6-2-26)
* The Norm Explainers (6-2-26)
* Centering Marginalized Voices (6-1-26)
* What would it look like if the Washington Post put its reader first? (6-1-26)
* What would it look like if the Financial Times put its reader first? (6-1-26)
* What It Would Mean for the Los Angeles Times to Put the Reader First? (6-1-26)
* What It Would Mean for The New York Times to Put the Reader First? (6-1-26)
* Why Wembanyama Lives on the Perimeter (5-31-26)
* The Emotional Palettes Of San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco & Sacramento (5-27-26)
* The Administrative Capital: Sacramento Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* San Diego - The Quiet Republic (5-27-26)
* The Quiet Bar: San Diego Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* SF v LA Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* Why Talent Travels Poorly Between San Francisco and Los Angeles (5-27-26)
* San Francisco and Los Angeles as Rival Models of Urban Access (5-27-26)
* Social Cliques in New York, 2026 (5-25-26)
* Social Cliques in San Francisco, 2026 (5-25-26)
* The Rival Courts of Washington (5-25-26)
* The City of Private Rooms (5-25-26)
