Steve Sailer writes: “The Times has now run two major articles in recent days — first on Somali corruption in Minnesota and yesterday on the Biden Administration’s foolishness on immigration policy — that sound like what I was writing 25 years ago for VDARE.”
Gemini says: Steve Sailer’s observation that the New York Times is echoing themes he wrote about decades ago for VDARE is fair in a specific, limited sense: the mainstream media’s “Overton Window” has shifted to include negative stories about immigration that were previously ignored or downplayed, but which Sailer made central to his beat.
Here is an analysis of why his claim holds water regarding the topics being covered, even if the ideological frameworks remain different.
1. The Somali Corruption Story
The Context: Sailer is likely referring to recent coverage (including in the Times) of the “Feeding Our Future” scandal in Minnesota, where a group consisting largely of Somali immigrants was convicted of stealing roughly $250 million in pandemic relief funds.
Why Sailer claims vindication: For 25 years, Sailer (and VDARE) argued that importing large numbers of refugees from clan-based societies (like Somalia) into high-trust Western welfare states would inevitably lead to systemic fraud and failure to assimilate. He often argued that what Westerners see as “corruption,” clan-based cultures see as “loyalty” to their in-group.
The Convergence: By publishing a major investigative piece detailing how this specific community exploited government lack of oversight, the Times is essentially reporting the exact scenario Sailer predicted: that the high-trust mechanisms of Minnesota governance were vulnerable to exploitation by a low-trust, insular group. The Times acknowledging the cultural component of this fraud (even implicitly) breaks from a previous media tendency to avoid such stories for fear of appearing xenophobic.
2. The Biden Immigration Policy Story
The Context: Sailer refers to recent reporting characterizing the Biden administration’s border management as a political and practical failure—specifically, the chaotic optics and the alienation of working-class voters.
Why Sailer claims vindication: Around 2000, Sailer formulated the “Sailer Strategy,” arguing that the GOP should abandon corporate libertarianism and “invade the world, invite the world” neoconservatism. Instead, he argued they should embrace economic populism and immigration restriction to win the white working class (and eventually the working class of all races).
The Convergence: Current mainstream analysis—that the Democrats lost the working class partly due to an inability to enforce borders, and that “mass immigration” is unpopular—mirrors Sailer’s critique of “Citizenism” (the idea that a government prioritizes its current citizens over foreigners). When the Times runs autopsies describing the policy as “foolish” or “politically suicidal,” they are adopting the political calculus Sailer outlined decades ago.
The Verdict: Fair, with a Catch
It is fair to say the Times sounds like Sailer because they are now reporting on the negative externalities of immigration (fraud, social friction, political backlash)—topics that were once the exclusive domain of restrictionist outlets like VDARE.
However, there is a fundamental divergence in diagnostics:
The NYT View: The Times likely views the Somali fraud as a failure of oversight and the border crisis as a failure of competence or messaging. They view these as solvable policy errors.
The Sailer View: Sailer views these outcomes as the inevitable result of “Human Biodiversity” (his term for racial differences) and cultural incompatibility. He believes these are not errors to be fixed, but biological/cultural realities to be accepted.
Summary: Sailer is correct that the Times is now validating his predictions of friction and failure. He is taking a victory lap because the “Paper of Record” is finally admitting the existence of problems he has been highlighting—often controversially—for a quarter-century.
