Category Archives: Andrew Gelman

Andrew Gelman’s Hero System

Andrew Gelman built a heroic life out of refusal. Most men earn their standing by claiming, the bold result, the clean finding, the story that lands. Gelman earns his by declining to claim more than the numbers will bear. His … Continue reading

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Private vs Public Polls

During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Mark Halperin regularly shared with his audience what he learned from the campaigns’ private polls. Private polls are better funded and far more accurate than public polls. By listening to Halperin, I knew for … Continue reading

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Andrew Gelman – The Gardener of Forking Paths

Andrew Gelman was born in Philadelphia in 1965 into a family with intellectual range. His sister Susan Gelman became a prominent developmental psychologist. His uncle Woody Gelman was a cartoonist. He attended MIT as a National Merit Scholar, earning degrees … Continue reading

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Columbia Stats Professor Andrew Gelman On Replication & Political Behavior

I email Andrew Gelman: Looking at the current state of the social sciences, do you think the culture of research has genuinely changed since the replication crisis became widely discussed, or has it mostly generated new compliance rituals around pre-registration … Continue reading

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Why Is Columbia University Statistics Professor Andrew Gelman Calling Harvard Law Professor Adrian Vermeule A Fascist?

On March 17, 2026, Columbia University Statistics professor Andrew Gelman blogs: Paul Campos expresses irritation at Adrian Vermeule, the fascist-supporting Harvard professor. I feel that irritation; indeed, I share it (see also here). But I also want to draw an … Continue reading

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Decoding Columbia University Stats Professor Andrew Gelman

Written with AI: Per Alliance Theory: Andrew Gelman operates as a high-level auditor of the intellectual commons. He recognizes that an alliance which bases its authority on science cannot afford to let its foundational currency—data—devalue through inflation or fraud. When … Continue reading

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Decoding Andrew Gelman

ChatGPT says: Andrew Gelman occupies a distinctive niche in Alliance Theory as an epistemic boundary enforcer who stabilizes elite scientific coalitions by disciplining overreach without threatening the coalition itself. Start from Pinsof’s core claim. Moral and epistemic norms exist to … Continue reading

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The Nudgelords

Comments at Andrew Gelman: * At this point I’m pretty familiar with Cass Sunstein. I’ve participated in a multi-day workshop with him, read some of his books and many of his articles, and have used his writings frequently in my … Continue reading

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Andrew Gelman: Niall Ferguson, the John Yoo line, and the paradox of influence (12-17-20)

Video. 00:00 Baked Alaska arrested, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVwmK1wZQHc 02:00 Kiwi Farms, gossip site for e-celebs, https://kiwifarms.net/threads/biting-the-hand-that-feeds.80828/ 05:00 Mad at the Internet (December 12th, 2020), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVwmK1wZQHc 19:30 Why Jews Should Oppose Censorship & Support Free Speech Despite Rising Anti-Semitism : David Calton, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1DZi3VMFvE … Continue reading

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Andrew Gelman: Beyond “power pose”: Using replication failures and a better understanding of data collection and analysis to do better science

Andrew Gelman writes: A bunch of people pointed me to a New York Times article by Susan Dominus about Amy Cuddy, the psychology researcher and Ted-talk star famous for the following claim (made in a paper written with Dana Carney … Continue reading

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