Category Archives: Iran

Decoding A Possible War With Iran

ChatGPT says: Alliance Theory treats this as a fight between rival coalitions trying to bind Donald Trump into their alliance logic rather than a clean debate about national interest. The pro war with Iran coalition is dominated by actors whose … Continue reading

Posted in Alliance Theory, Iran | Comments Off on Decoding A Possible War With Iran

How Do The Mullahs Rule Iran?

ChatGPT says: The regime does not rule Iran. It rules a winning alliance that is much smaller than the population and much more tightly bound. Start with the selectorate. Power is held by a compact alliance anchored by the IRGC, … Continue reading

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on How Do The Mullahs Rule Iran?

The Battle For Iran

ChatGPT says: Alliance Theory would interpret internal power struggles in Iran and the possibility of conflict involving Israel and the United States as manifestations of competing elite and mass alliances competing over identity, legitimacy, and rival maps, both within Iran … Continue reading

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on The Battle For Iran

Is Iran closer to regime change now than 72 hours ago?

Gemini: Yes, the Iranian regime appears closer to collapse today (January 7, 2026) than it did 72 hours ago (January 4, 2026), primarily due to the qualitative shift in the opposition from street protests to organized economic strikes by key … Continue reading

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on Is Iran closer to regime change now than 72 hours ago?

WSJ: Iran’s Calculations Are Scrambled by U.S. Raid in Caracas

The WSJ reports: President Trump’s threat to intervene in Iran’s protests carries new urgency for Tehran now that the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has raised uncertainty around how far the president is willing to go. Trump said … Continue reading

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on WSJ: Iran’s Calculations Are Scrambled by U.S. Raid in Caracas

Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

Gemini: Based on the geopolitical and economic landscape as of early 2026, the survival of the Iranian clerical establishment (often referred to as the “mullah regime”) appears increasingly precarious. While the regime retains a monopoly on violence that likely ensures … Continue reading

Posted in China, Iran, Mexico, Russia | Comments Off on Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

Iran: The Great Contraction

When I lose at life, I retreat as I deflate and I make myself smaller. My choices are more cautious. I spend more time alone. When I win in life, I expand and try new things. I’m happy to talk … Continue reading

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on Iran: The Great Contraction

Should We Aid Ukraine As Much As Israel?

I was listening to The Enforcer bros on Youtube (the best place for breaking war coverage) the other day and they were making a strong case for aiding Ukraine as much as we aid Israel. I am biased here because … Continue reading

Posted in Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine | Comments Off on Should We Aid Ukraine As Much As Israel?

What does abductive reasoning tell us about why Israel and then America attacked Iran recently?

Leading with vulnerability works for individuals at times, but it is not a great strategy for states. Grok says: Israel’s Attack (June 13, 2025): Israel launched a surprise attack targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities (e.g., Natanz, Fordo), military bases, and key … Continue reading

Posted in Iran, Israel | Comments Off on What does abductive reasoning tell us about why Israel and then America attacked Iran recently?

What role did AI play in Israel’s Attack On Iran?

ChatGPT says: AI played a pivotal and unprecedented role in Israel’s June 2025 attack on Iran, marking a major evolution in modern warfare. While Israel had been integrating artificial intelligence into its defense systems for years, the 2025 conflict represented … Continue reading

Posted in AI, Iran, Israel | Comments Off on What role did AI play in Israel’s Attack On Iran?