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Category Archives: Iran
The Kurdish Lever
The most significant movement toward a Mullah regime collapse scenario is occurring at the geographic periphery. The Kurdish Offensive: On March 2, 2026, a new coalition of five major Iranian Kurdish parties urged security personnel to “choose the side of … Continue reading
Establishment Narratives Shift On The Iran War
There are some small movements inside the blob and the Middle East expert community, but they are limited and uneven. What you mostly see right now is adjustment at the margins, not a wholesale shift in consensus. Here are the … Continue reading
Is Turkey The New Iran (Islamist Autocracy)?
The claim that “Turkey is the new Iran” is less a factual description than an alliance signal circulating inside Western policy debates. Alliance Theory helps explain why that frame appears and who benefits from it. First look at the coalitions … Continue reading
Tracking Elite Reactions To The Iran War
Many U.S. elites, including Trump administration officials and foreign policy experts, have increasingly framed the conflict as an opportunity for “regime change” in Iran, moving away from earlier narratives of negotiation or containment. For instance, President Trump has reportedly considered … Continue reading
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Cues (Inadvertent) vs Signals (Deliberate) In The Iran War
The cues show we’re in a regional war of attrition that’s expected to last for months. The last 24 hours have shifted the conflict from a “punitive strike” narrative into a structural fight for regime survival. Based on David Pinsof’s … Continue reading
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Pentagon Switches To Plain Talk Instead Of Elite Talk
Coop LoPresto (@LCplLoPro) writes on X: There’s a couple things in here that, while not a huge deal, I can dig. And mainly it’s just the language of the presentation. Ever since Hegseth became SecDef/War/Bro, you can hear staff officers … Continue reading
Decoding The Cues (Not Signals) In The Iran War
A cue is information that leaks about reality or about a person. A signal is behavior designed to influence what others believe about you or your intentions. Cues are more honest than signals. In David Pinsof’s framework, people constantly read … Continue reading
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Decoding The Rhetoric Around The Iran War
David Pinsof writes: “Politics is about signaling tribal affiliation, charity is about signaling virtue, art is about signaling upper-class shibboleths, and education is about signaling intelligence, work ethic, and rule-following ability to elite employers. The implications are soul-crushing: politics is … Continue reading
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Peter Zeihan Makes Many Attention-Seeking But Dubious Claims
Peter Zeihan writes: The Gulf states are rapidly running out of interceptors. They have already burned through more than half their stockpile trying to stop low-cost Shahed drones, and soon they may have to ignore drones entirely to conserve missiles … Continue reading
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The Elite Fetishize Words
I love words but they are not the sum total of reality. The map is not the territory. Words are useful, but they are not the always the ultimate tool for getting things done. Sometimes power is more important than … Continue reading
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