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Category Archives: Iran
Tracking Elite Reactions To The Iran War
Many U.S. elites, including Trump administration officials and foreign policy experts, have increasingly framed the conflict as an opportunity for “regime change” in Iran, moving away from earlier narratives of negotiation or containment. For instance, President Trump has reportedly considered … Continue reading
Cues (Inadvertent) vs Signals (Deliberate) In The Iran War
The cues show we’re in a regional war of attrition that’s expected to last for months. The last 24 hours have shifted the conflict from a “punitive strike” narrative into a structural fight for regime survival. Based on David Pinsof’s … Continue reading
Pentagon Switches To Plain Talk Instead Of Elite Talk
Coop LoPresto (@LCplLoPro) writes on X: There’s a couple things in here that, while not a huge deal, I can dig. And mainly it’s just the language of the presentation. Ever since Hegseth became SecDef/War/Bro, you can hear staff officers … Continue reading
Decoding The Cues (Not Signals) In The Iran War
A cue is information that leaks about reality or about a person. A signal is behavior designed to influence what others believe about you or your intentions. Cues are more honest than signals. In David Pinsof’s framework, people constantly read … Continue reading
Decoding The Rhetoric Around The Iran War
David Pinsof writes: “Politics is about signaling tribal affiliation, charity is about signaling virtue, art is about signaling upper-class shibboleths, and education is about signaling intelligence, work ethic, and rule-following ability to elite employers. The implications are soul-crushing: politics is … Continue reading
Peter Zeihan Makes Many Attention-Seeking But Dubious Claims
Peter Zeihan writes: The Gulf states are rapidly running out of interceptors. They have already burned through more than half their stockpile trying to stop low-cost Shahed drones, and soon they may have to ignore drones entirely to conserve missiles … Continue reading
The Elite Fetishize Words
I love words but they are not the sum total of reality. The map is not the territory. Words are useful, but they are not the always the ultimate tool for getting things done. Sometimes power is more important than … Continue reading
Decoding Vali Nasr (Iranian-American Political Scientist)
Per Alliance Theory, Vali Nasr’s base is the institutional foreign policy establishment. Think elite universities like Johns Hopkins University and the School of Advanced International Studies, mainstream media, centrist policy circles, former diplomats, foundation boards. His prestige comes from being … Continue reading
Tracking Elite Reactions To Iran War
Western elites appear more unified in antagonism toward the regime than at any point in recent years, with actions matching rhetoric. Elite defection within the Iranian state usually manifests through quiet financial exit, rhetorical distancing, or institutional friction rather than … Continue reading
Elite Trope: Trump’s War With Iran Is Illegal!
If the Iran war is illegal, who enforces any penalty for this being an illegal war? It seems like a silly argument to me. Every national leader is forced by reality to act in the nation’s interest whether that is … Continue reading