Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World

Tim Marshall writes in this 2016 book:

VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS HE IS A RELIGIOUS MAN, A GREAT supporter of the Russian Orthodox Church. If so, he may well go to bed each night, say his prayers and ask God: ‘Why didn’t you put some mountains in Ukraine?’
If God had built mountains in Ukraine, then the great expanse of flatland that is the North European Plain would not be such encouraging territory from which to attack Russia repeatedly. As it is, Putin has no choice: he must at least attempt to control the flatlands to the west. So it is with all nations, big or small. The landscape imprisons their leaders, giving them fewer choices and less room to manoeuvre than you might think. This was true of the Athenian Empire, the Persians, the Babylonians and before; it was true of every leader seeking high ground from which to protect their tribe.
The land on which we live has always shaped us. It has shaped the wars, the power, politics and social development of the peoples that now inhabit nearly every part of the earth. Technology may seem to overcome the distances between us in both mental and physical space, but it is easy to forget that the land where we live, work and raise our children is hugely important, and that the choices of those who lead the seven billion inhabitants of this planet will to some degree always be shaped by the rivers, mountains, deserts, lakes and seas that constrain us all – as they always have.

* Take, for example, China and India: two massive countries with huge populations that share a very long border but are not politically or culturally aligned. It wouldn’t be surprising if these two giants had fought each other in several wars, but in fact, apart from one month-long battle in 1962, they never have. Why? Because between them is the highest mountain range in the world, and it is practically impossible to advance large military columns through or over the Himalayas. As technology becomes more sophisticated, of course, ways are emerging of overcoming this obstacle, but the physical barrier remains a deterrent, and so both countries focus their foreign policy on other regions while keeping a wary eye on each other.
Individual leaders, ideas, technology and other factors all play a role in shaping events, but they are temporary. Each new generation will still face the physical obstructions created by the Hindu Kush and the Himalayas; the challenges created by the rainy season; and the disadvantages of limited access to natural minerals or food sources.

* The River Ibar in Kosovo is a prime example. Ottoman rule over Serbia was cemented by the Battle of Kosovo Polje in 1389, fought near where the Ibar flows through the city of Mitrovica. Over the following centuries the Serb population began to withdraw behind the Ibar as Muslim Albanians gradually descended from the mountainous Malesija region into Kosovo, where they became a majority by the mid eighteenth century.
Fast-forward to the twentieth century and there was still a clear ethnic/religious division roughly marked by the river. Then in 1999, battered by NATO from the air and the Kosovo Liberation Army on the ground, the Yugoslav (Serbian) military retreated across the Ibar, quickly followed by most of the remaining Serb population. The river became the de facto border of what some countries now recognise as the independent state of Kosovo.
Mitrovica was also where the advancing NATO ground forces came to a halt. During the three-month war there had been veiled threats that NATO intended to invade all of Serbia. In truth, the restraints of both geography and politics meant the NATO leaders never really had that option.

* When Vladimir Putin isn’t thinking about God, and mountains, he’s thinking about pizza. In particular, the shape of a slice of pizza – a wedge.
The thin end of this wedge is Poland. Here, the vast North European Plain stretching from France to the Urals (which extend 1,000 miles south to north, forming a natural boundary between Europe and Asia) is only 300 miles wide. It runs from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Carpathian Mountains in the south. The North European Plain encompasses all of western and northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, northern Germany and nearly all of Poland.
From a Russian perspective this is a double-edged sword. Poland represents a relatively narrow corridor into which Russia could drive its armed forces if necessary and thus prevent an enemy from advancing towards Moscow. But from this point the wedge begins to broaden; by the time you get to Russia’s borders it is over 2,000 miles wide, and is flat all the way to Moscow and beyond. Even with a large army you would be hard-pressed to defend in strength along this line. However, Russia has never been conquered from this direction partially due to its strategic depth.

* A century ago, who could have guessed that American armed forces would be stationed a few hundred miles from Moscow in Poland and the Baltic States? By 2004, just fifteen years from 1989, every single former Warsaw Pact state bar Russia was in NATO or the European Union.
The Moscow administration’s mind has been concentrated by that, and by Russia’s history.

* Russia is the biggest country in the world, twice the size of the USA or China, five times the size of India, twenty-five times the size of the UK. However, it has a relatively small population of about 144 million, fewer people than Nigeria or Pakistan. Its agricultural growing season is short…

* Continuing clockwise, we come to the next land borders: Vietnam, Laos and Burma. Vietnam is an irritation for China. For centuries the two have squabbled over territory, and unfortunately for both this is the one area to the south which has a border an army can get across without too much trouble – which partially explains the 1,000-year domination and occupation of Vietnam by China from 111 BCE to 938 CE and their brief cross-border war of 1979. However, as China’s military prowess grows, Vietnam will be less inclined to get drawn into a shooting match and will either cosy up even closer to the Americans for protection or quietly begin shifting diplomatically to become friends with Beijing. That both countries are nominally ideologically Communist has little to do with the state of their relationship: it is their shared geography that has defined relations. Viewed from Beijing, Vietnam is only a minor threat and a problem that can be managed.

* Very little trade has moved between China and India over the centuries, and that is unlikely to change soon. Of course the border is really the Tibetan–Indian border – and that is precisely why China has always wanted to control it.
This is the geopolitics of fear. If China did not control Tibet, it would always be possible that India might attempt to do so. This would give India the commanding heights of the Tibetan Plateau and a base from which to push into the Chinese heartland, as well as control of the Tibetan sources of three of China’s great rivers, the Yellow, Yangtze and Mekong, which is why Tibet is known as ‘China’s Water Tower’. China, a country with approximately the same volume of water usage as the USA, but with a population five times as large, will clearly not allow that.
It matters not whether India wants to cut off China’s river supply, only that it would have the power to do so. For centuries China has tried to ensure that it could never happen. The actor Richard Gere and the Free Tibet movement will continue to speak out against the injustices of the occupation, and now settlement, of Tibet by Han Chinese; but in a battle between the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan independence movement, Hollywood stars and the Chinese Communist Party – which rules the world’s second-largest economy – there is only going to be one winner.
When Westerners, be they Mr Gere or Mr Obama, talk about Tibet, the Chinese find it deeply irritating. Not dangerous, not subversive – just irritating. They see it not through the prism of human rights, but that of geopolitical security, and can only believe that the Westerners are trying to undermine their security…

China’s massive population, mostly crammed into the heartland, is looking for ways to expand. Just as the Americans looked west, so do the Chinese, and just as the Iron Horse brought the European settlers to the lands of the Comanche and the Navajo, so the modern Iron Roosters are bringing the Han to the Tibetans.

* There was, is and always will be trouble in Xinjiang. The Uighurs have twice declared an independent state of ‘East Turkestan’, in the 1930s and 1940s.

* Inter-ethnic rioting erupted in 2009, leading to over 200 deaths. Beijing responded in three ways: it ruthlessly suppressed dissent, it poured money into the region, and it continued to pour in Han Chinese workers. For China, Xinjiang is too strategically important to allow an independence movement to get off the ground: it not only borders eight countries, thus buffering the heartland, but it also has oil, and is home to China’s nuclear weapons testing sites.

* There are similar reasons for the Party’s resistance to democracy and individual rights. If the population were to be given a free vote, the unity of the Han might begin to crack or, more likely, the countryside and urban areas would come into conflict. That in turn would embolden the people of the buffer zones, further weakening China. It is only a century since the most recent humiliation of the rape of China by foreign powers; for Beijing, unity and economic progress are priorities well ahead of democratic principles.
The Chinese look at society very differently from the West. Western thought is infused with the rights of the individual; Chinese thought prizes the collective above the individual. What the West thinks of as the rights of man, the Chinese leadership thinks of as dangerous theories endangering the majority, and much of the population accepts that, at the least, the extended family comes before the individual.

* I was treated to a stern lecture about how the full imposition of ‘what you call human rights’ in China would lead to widespread violence and death and was then asked, ‘Why do you think your values would work in a culture you don’t understand?’

* Another growing problem for the Party is its ability to feed the population. More than 40 per cent of arable land is now either polluted or has thinning topsoil, according to their Ministry of Agriculture.
China is caught in a catch-22. It needs to keep industrialising as it modernises and raises standards of living, but that very process threatens food production. If it cannot solve this problem there will be unrest.

* National pride means China wants to control the passageways through the Chain; geopolitics dictates it has to. It provides access to the world’s most important shipping lanes in the South China Sea. In peacetime the route is open in various places, but in wartime they could very easily be blocked, thus blockading China. All great nations spend peacetime preparing for the day war breaks out.

* The Chinese are determined to have Taiwan but are nowhere near being able to challenge for it militarily. Instead they are using soft power by increasing trade and tourism between the two states. China wants to woo Taiwan back into its arms.

* From the South China Sea Chinese ships would still have problems, whether they headed towards the Pacific or the Indian Ocean – which is the world’s waterway for the gas and oil without which China would collapse. To go westward towards the energy-producing states of the Gulf they must pass Vietnam, which, as we have noted, has recently been making overtures overtures to the Americans. They must go near the Philippines, a US ally, before trying to get through the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, all of which are diplomatically and militarily linked to the USA. The Strait is approximately 500 miles long and at its narrowest is less than two miles wide. It has always been a choke point – and the Chinese remain vulnerable to being choked. All of the states along the Strait and near its approaches are anxious about Chinese dominance, and most have territorial disputes with Beijing.

* when the Burmese Junta began to slowly open up to the outside world in 2010, it wasn’t just the Chinese who beat a path to their door. The Americans and Japanese were quick to establish better relations, with both President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan going to pay their respects in person. If they can influence Burma, they can help check China. So far, the Chinese are winning this particular game on the global chessboard, but the Americans may be able to outmuscle them as long as the Burmese government is confident Washington will stand by it.

* IF YOU WON THE LOTTERY, AND were looking to buy a country to live in, the first one the estate agent would show you would be the United States of America.

* There are fifty American states, but they add up to one nation in a way the twenty-eight sovereign states of the European Union never can. Most of the EU states have a national identity far stronger, more defined, than any American state. It is easy to find a French person who is French first, European second, or one who pays little allegiance to the idea of Europe, but an American identifies with their Union in a way few Europeans do theirs. This is explained by geography, and by the history of the unification of the USA.

* Germany had always had bigger geographical problems than France. The flatlands of the North European Plain gave it two reasons to be fearful: to the west the Germans saw their long-unified and powerful neighbour France, and to the east the giant Russian Bear. Their ultimate fear was of a simultaneous attack by both powers across the flat land of the corridor. We can never know if it would have happened, but the fear of it had catastrophic consequences.

* The dilemma of Germany’s geographical position and belligerence became known as ‘the German Question’. The answer, after the horrors of the Second World War, indeed after centuries of war, was the acceptance of the presence in the European lands of a single overwhelming power, the USA, which set up NATO and allowed for the eventual creation of the European Union. Exhausted by war, and with safety ‘guaranteed’ by the American military, the Europeans embarked on an astonishing experiment. They were asked to trust each other.

* Jordan. Because Israel is so small it has no real ‘strategic depth’, nowhere to fall back to if its defences are breached, and so militarily it concentrates on trying to ensure no one can get near it. Furthermore, the distance from the West Bank border to Tel Aviv is about 10 miles at its narrowest; from the West Bank ridge, any half decent military could cut Israel in two. Likewise, in the case of the West Bank Israel prevents any group from becoming powerful enough to threaten its existence.
Under current conditions Israel faces threats to its security and to the lives of its citizens by terrorist attacks and rocket fire from its immediate neighbours, but not a threat to its very existence. Egypt, to the southwest, is not a threat. There is a peace treaty that currently suits both sides, and the partially demilitarised Sinai Peninsula acts as a buffer between them. East of this, across the Red Sea at Aqaba in Jordan, the desert also protects Israel, as does its peace treaty with Amman. To the north there is a potential menace from Lebanon but it is a relatively small one, in the form of cross-border raids and/or limited shelling. However, if and when Hezbollah in Lebanon use their larger and longer-range rockets to reach deep into Israel, the response will be massive.
The more serious potential threat comes from Lebanon’s bigger neighbour Syria… Damascus wants and needs direct access to the coast. It has always regarded Lebanon as part of Syria (as indeed it was) and remains bitter about its troops having been forced to leave in 2005. If that route to the sea is blocked, the alternative is to cross the Golan Heights and descend to the hilly region around the Sea of Galilee en route to the Mediterranean. But the Heights were seized by Israel after Syria attacked it in the 1973 war, and it would take an enormous onslaught by a Syrian army to break through to the coastal plain leading to the major Israeli population centres. This cannot be discounted at some future point, but in the medium term it remains extremely unlikely…

* Iran is defended by this geography, with mountains on three sides, swampland and water on the fourth. The Mongols were the last force to make any progress through the territory in 1219–21 and since then attackers have ground themselves into dust trying to make headway across the mountains. By the time of the Second Gulf War in 2003 even the USA, the greatest fighting force the world has seen, thought better than to take a right turn once it had entered Iraq from the south, knowing that even with its superior firepower Iran was not a country to invade. In fact, the US military had a catchphrase at the time: ‘We do deserts, not mountains.’
In 1980, when the Iran–Iraq War broke out, the Iraqis used six divisions to cross the Shatt al-Arab in an attempt to annex the Iranian province of Khuzestan. They never even made it off the swamp-ridden plains, let alone entered the foothills of the Zagros. The war dragged on for eight years, taking at least a million lives.
The mountainous terrain of Iran means that it is difficult to create an interconnected economy, and that it has many minority groups each with keenly defined characteristics. Khuzestan, for example, is ethnically majority Arab, and elsewhere there are Kurds, Azeri, Turkmen and Georgians, among others. At most 60 per cent of the country speaks Farsi, the language of the dominant Persian majority. As a result of this diversity, Iran has traditionally centralised power and used force and a fearsome intelligence network to maintain internal stability. Tehran knows that no one is about to invade Iran, but also that hostile powers can use its minorities to try and stir dissent and thus endanger its Islamic revolution.

* Saudi Arabia may be bigger than Iran, it may be many times richer than Iran due to its well-developed oil and gas industries, but its population is much smaller (28 million Saudis as opposed to 78 million Iranians) and militarily it is not confident about its ability to take on its Persian neighbour if this cold war ever turns hot and their forces confront each other directly. Each side has ambitions to be the dominant power in the region, and each regards itself as the champion of its respective version of Islam.

* less than 5 per cent of its [Turkey] territory is in Europe. Most geographers regard the small area of Turkey which is west of the Bosporus as being in Europe, and the rest of the country, south and south-east of the Bosporus, as being in the Middle East (in its widest sense).
That is one reason why Turkey has never been accepted into the EU. Other factors are its record on human rights, especially when it comes to the Kurds, and its economy. Its population is 75 million and European countries fear that, given the disparity in living standards, EU membership would result in a mass influx of labour. What may also be a factor, albeit unspoken within the EU, is that Turkey is a majority Muslim country (98 per cent). The EU is neither a secular nor a Christian organisation, but there has been a difficult debate about ‘values’.

* Politically, the Arab countries remain suspicious that Erdoğan wants to recreate the Ottoman Empire economically and they resist close ties. The Iranians see Turkey as their most powerful military and economic competitor in their own backyard. Relations, never warm, have cooled due to them being on opposite sides in support for factions involved in the Syrian civil war. Turkey’s strong support for the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt was a policy that backfired when the Egyptian military staged its second coup and took power. Relations between Cairo and Ankara are now icy.
The Turkish elite have learnt that scoring Islamist points by picking fights with Israel results in Israel co-operating with Cyprus and Greece to create a trilateral energy alliance to exploit the gas fields off their respective coasts. The Egyptian government’s dim view of Turkey is contributing to Cairo’s interest in being a major customer for this new energy source. Meanwhile Turkey, which could have benefited from Israeli energy, remains largely reliant on its old foe Russia for its energy needs whilst simultaneously working with Russia to develop new pipelines to deliver energy to EU countries.
The Americans, alarmed at the new cold war between Turkey and Israel, two of its allies, are working to bring them together again. The USA wants a better relationship between them so as to strengthen NATO’s position in the eastern Mediterranean. In NATO terms, Turkey is a key country because it controls the entrance to and exit from the Black Sea through the narrow gap of the Bosporus Strait. If it closes the Strait, which is less than a mile across at its narrowest point, the Russian Black Sea Fleet cannot break out into the Mediterranean and then the Atlantic. Even getting through the Bosporus only takes you into the Sea of Marmara; you still have to navigate through the Dardanelles Straits to get to the Aegean Sea en route to the Mediterranean.
Given its land mass Turkey is not often thought of as a sea power, but it borders three seas and its control of these waters has always made it a force to be reckoned with; it is also a trade and transportation bridge linking Europe with the Middle East, the Caucasus and on up to the Central Asian countries, with which it shares history and, in some regions, ethnic ties.
Turkey is determined to be at the crossroads of history even if the traffic can at times be hazardous.

* The routine expression of hatred for others is so common in the Arab world that it barely draws comment other than from the region’s often Western-educated liberal minority who have limited access to the platform of mass media. Anti-Semitic cartoons which echo the Nazi Der Stürmer propaganda newspaper are common. Week in, week out, shock-jock Imams are given space on prime-time TV shows.
Western apologists for this sort of behaviour are sometimes hamstrung by a fear of being described as one of Edward Said’s ‘Orientalists’.

* INDIA AND PAKISTAN CAN AGREE ON ONE THING: NEITHER WANTS the other one around. This is somewhat problematic given that they share a 1,900-mile long border. Each country fairly bristles with antagonism and nuclear weapons, so how they manage this unwanted relationship is a matter of life and death on a scale of tens of millions.

* India has a population approaching 1.3 billion people, while Pakistan’s is 182 million. Impoverished, volatile and splintering, Pakistan appears to define itself by its opposition to India, while India, despite obsessing about Pakistan, defines itself in many ways, including that of being an emerging world power with a growing economy and an expanding middle class. From this vantage point it looks across at Pakistan and sees how it outperforms it on almost all economic and democratic indicators.
They have fought four major wars and many skirmishes. Emotions run hot. An oft-quoted remark by a Pakistani officer that Pakistan would make India bleed by a thousand cuts was addressed in late 2014 by military analyst Dr Amarjit Singh writing in the Indian Defence Review: ‘Whatever others may believe, my opinion is simply that it is better for India to brave a costly nuclear attack by Pakistan, and get it over with even at the cost of tens of millions of deaths, than suffer ignominy and pain day in and day out through a thousand cuts and wasted energy in unrealized potential.’ That may not reflect official government policy, but it is an indication of the depth of feeling at many levels in both societies. Modern Pakistan and India were born in fire; next time the fire could kill them.

* Islam, cricket, the intelligence services, the military and fear of India are what hold Pakistan together.

* Two hundred years after the beginning of the struggle for independence, the Latin American countries lag far behind the North Americans and the Europeans. Their total population (including the Caribbean) is over 600 million, and yet their combined GDP is equivalent to that of France and the UK, which together comprise about 125 million people.

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Psychobabble: Exploding the myths of the self-help generation

Here are some highlights from this 2012 book by psychologist Stephen Briers:

* The phenomenal growth of the self-help sector in the last century is a testament not only to our rising levels of insecurity and self-doubt, but to the stealthy psychologising of our culture as a whole.

* The ideas and values associated with popular psychology have infiltrated our culture so deeply that we now take them largely for granted.

* Thanks to the powerful engine of the self-help industry, the memes of popular psychology are busy replicating themselves so effectively that they have become an integral part of the fabric of our lives and thought processes.

* The congregational minister Edwin Paxton Hood once admonished: ‘Be as careful of the books you read, as of the company you keep; for your habits and character will be influenced as much by the latter as by the former.’

* I would furthermore suggest that the chances that any significant aspect of our multifaceted, multidimensional and highly idiosyncratic lives (especially those murky unresolved zones we tend to demarcate as ‘problems’) can ever be covered adequately by a brace of simple rules, five key principles or seven effective habits, are practically next to zero. Yet this is precisely what the bulk of self-help books offer.

* …every society needs its myths to stabilise the treacherous, swirling vortex of reality. In our modern world, successful self-help books are almost certainly filling the gap left by the ebbing tide of religious faith.

* The self-help section of your local bookstore is actually a Bill of Rights in disguise, and it sets the bar pretty high. Let’s not forget, you deserve to be happy, accomplished and beloved – just like everyone else. After all, you’re worth it!

* Shimon Peres: ‘If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact – not to be solved, but to be coped with over time.’

* I remember browsing the self-help section of my local bookstore one sunny afternoon and rapidly feeling overwhelmed. There was just so much to do; so many areas of my life apparently in need of urgent attention. If I were to awaken the giant within, familiarise myself with the rules of life, become highly effective, lose 40 pounds and embrace a more confident, happier, assertive, creative, focused, flowing and decisive version of myself I clearly had my work cut out. Where was I going to find the time for all this? Perhaps what I needed was a book that would teach me to speed-read or give me some top tips on managing my time more effectively? Surveying the vast amount of help out there it’s easy to feel like a gardener who returns from a long vacation to discover that their whole plot is completely overrun by weeds.

* I will admit upfront that I am about to start lobbing stones from the glassiest of houses. As a practising clinical psychologist I am a fully paid-up member of the change industry and painfully conscious that over the years my clients have heard a constant stream of Psychobabble issue from my own lips. Even worse, I have written self-help books myself.

* Being able to accept yourself, warts and all, with some measure of compassion is psychologically healthy, but that’s not where most self-esteem gurus are setting the bar.

* Let your feelings out! If one had to pinpoint the most significant developments that have taken place in society over the last 50 years, an obvious candidate would be our radically revised position regarding the expression of our feelings. Prior to the 1960s the infamous British ‘stiff upper lip’ was universally regarded as a virtue, but these days the repression of emotion is seen as the root of a host of psychological and physical problems.

* The growing consensus that repressing your feelings is a bad thing has only been reinforced by reality TV’s love affair with characters whose appeal to the public lies not only in their larger-than-life personalities but their apparent lack of any kind of emotional filter. Jade Goody, who sadly died in 2009, was a prime example. Her utter emotional transparency in the Big Brother house assured her celebrity status. Every fleeting emotion, every high and low was writ large for all to see. Although she was sometimes treated as a figure of fun because of her poor general knowledge (‘Has Greece got its own moon?’) and some fairly spectacular malapropisms (‘They were trying to use me as an escape goat …’), Jade Goody achieved cult hero status. Whatever her educational shortcomings, there was an emerging consensus that her unparalleled degree of emotional directness and expressivity was admirable, while it also made her highly watchable. What previous generations would have considered childlike or undisciplined was construed as a positive: it made Jade ‘authentic’, someone who was always truly and fully herself. Jade Goody’s fame was a product of a culture that views emotional repression as self-denial, surely the most heinous of modern sins.
And yet the story of Jade Goody is also a cautionary one for all advocates of wearing your heart on your sleeve. The Greek Orthodox church has a saying, ‘the greatest virtues cast the longest shadows’, and, ultimately, Jade’s lack of emotional restraint caused her downfall. Her inability to ‘bite her tongue’ and moderate an outpouring of frustration and resentment towards Bollywood actress Shilpa Shetty in a later series of Big Brother caused an international outcry. On this occasion it appeared that Jade’s unmediated emotions had unfortunately found expression in an outpouring of racist abuse, although Goody herself always denied that Shetty’s ethnicity had ever been either a cause or focus of those feelings. However, the overnight transformation of Jade Goody from popular folk hero to cause célèbre in the wake of Celebrity Big Brother in 2007 should have been a wake-up call to the potential hazards of giving such free range to the expression of one’s emotions.

* How do we explain the fact that Japan, a collectivist culture in which the suppression of certain emotions is actively encouraged, is also one of the most physically healthy countries in the world?

* According to Professor Jeffrey Lohr, who has reviewed over 40 years of work addressing the issue, ‘In study after study the conclusion was the same: Expressing anger does not reduce aggressive tendencies and likely makes it worse’. Lohr argues that while indulging your angry feelings may be a briefly enjoyable thing to do, this kind of venting doesn’t even ultimately reduce the feelings of anger.

* research has sadly found no convincing evidence that emotional intelligence confers any significant advantage in terms of getting on in the world.

* Nicolo Machiavelli: ‘How we live is so different from how we ought to live that he who studies what ought to be done rather than what is done will learn the way to his downfall rather than to his preservation.’

Take Machiavelli’s advice. Read the biographies of outstanding high achievers throughout history or those of our contemporary Captains of Industry and ask yourself honestly: ‘What is it that enabled these men and women to get to the top?’ If you discover a significant and consistent overlap with the assorted traits and characteristics cobbled together under the heading of ‘emotional intelligence’ I, for one, will be most surprised. There may be many valid reasons to try and become a more empathic, sensitive, and likeable person but, regrettably, I strongly suspect that getting ahead of the pack isn’t necessarily one of them.

* goal setting is only helpful if the goals that we have set ourselves are actually the right ones in the first place.

* Underlying most of our goal-setting activities is the natural belief that achieving those goals will in some way make us happier. Regrettably, according to Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert, we are often very poor at knowing what we want or, to be more precise, predicting accurately the true value of the things we think we want.

* The brain, it turns out, is quite a conservative and vulnerable organ, primed to resist any activity that requires any radical reformulation of its patterns of activity. Push too far and your higher centres will shut off. Your grey matter will rebel by seeking to pull you back towards the comfort of the familiar. This process is analogous to what happens in muscles that are overstretched. The myotatic or ‘stretch’ reflex automatically causes muscle fibres to contract and resist the process of stretching, which is why, as any fitness coach will tell you, effective physical stretching has to be done gently and in incremental stages.

* Another problem with our goals is that they can also unhelpfully narrow our attention as all our resources are funnelled towards our target objectives. Under such circumstances we can very easily lose sight of the bigger picture and our lives can get hopelessly out of balance.

* In an article entitled ‘Goals Gone Wild: The Systematic Effects of Over-prescribing Goal-Setting’, the authors point out that losing touch with the context can encourage risky and unethical behaviour and the neglect of equally important objectives and relationships. The prescriptive nature of goals can also lull us into a kind of mental laziness, even downright stupidity: the goals provide us with a simplified agenda and one in which we no longer have to look to the way different elements of the task interact.

* Whilst our goals may all too often induce the kind of tunnel vision demonstrated so elegantly in the Simons-Chabris task, by contrast contentment is one of a group of positive emotions that the cognitive psychologist Barbara Fredrickson believes actively expands our field of attention and the range of thoughts and actions that lie open to us.

* Of course people make us feel things: I challenge you to name one significant emotional peak or trough in your life that does not have something to do with your reactions to a fellow human being. The entire history of our species is a millennia-spanning testimony to the profound impact we have on one another at all kinds of levels, many of which we have precious little conscious control over. The degree to which we are affected and influenced by other people is actually quite terrifying, but equally disquieting is our collusion with the rather smug fantasy that we are fundamentally untouchable, and that we are capable of orchestrating our own reactions to every encounter.

* In the moment, our reactions tend to be instantaneous, unbidden and emotionally charged. It takes time and a great deal of dedicated practice to reprogramme our automatic responses to certain stimuli. The prospect that our rationality is a fire extinguisher capable of dampening down every unwanted emotion may be comforting, but it is largely a fantasy.

* Various studies have confirmed that people tend to copy each other’s body language, facial expressions, speech patterns and vocal tones. The reason this automatic mimicry is crucial in understanding social influence is because psychologists believe it may be one of the mechanisms that underlie emotional contagion, i.e. the ability of one person to transfer emotions to another. What we do with our bodies has a direct impact on the emotions we experience. Smile (even though your heart is breaking) and science suggests you will indeed feel better. Slump in your seat and your mood is more likely to become listless and despondent.

* It seems likely that by unconsciously copying the behaviour and micro-expressions of people around us we consequently end up replicating their emotions. In fact, research has established that even feelings like loneliness can be catching.

* we are neurologically configured to connect up with what others around us are experiencing.

* Mirror neurone research suggests there is substantial psychological mileage in the old adage that ‘we become like the company we keep’. Whether this is pleasurable, enlightening, soothing or discordant depends on a host of interpersonal variables. Other people can expose us to the best and the worst in ourselves. They can transport us to delirious emotional heights but, as Sartre pointed out, they can also take us straight to hell. However, it is certainly naive to assume that we are in full control of the emotional impact of such encounters.
Far from relying upon the dodgy adage that no one can make us feel anything we don’t allow, instead we should recognise just how vulnerable and open we are to the invisible and unconscious influence of those around us. We would be well advised, therefore, to make thoughtful choices about the company we keep or, as the silent movie star Louise Beal astutely put it: ‘Love thy neighbour as yourself, but choose your neighbourhood.’

We should also be mindful of our own impact on others. We’ve seen that other people can’t necessarily choose how to respond to us. So how we are around other people really matters – yet this is rarely, if ever, the subject of any self-help guru. They and we naturally attend to the way other people leave us feeling, but how much do we reflect upon the way we can change the atmosphere in a room or how our manner affects other people?

* Of course, you might also want to question whether you might not want to allow other people to make you feel things from time to time. Rumour has it that other people can sometimes make you feel pretty good. Even when they don’t, while it might be prudent to keep those feelings to yourself sometimes, our spontaneous internal reactions to the people around us and the things that happen to us are an important part of being fully alive. Surely we’re not now aspiring to be emotionally vacant Stepford Wives who sail through life’s twists and turns completely unruffled, with never a hair out of place? Other people will always have the capacity to make us laugh and cry. They can light us up with joy one moment and cast us into despair the next. That’s just how it is. And to be honest, would we really want it any other way?

* Psychobabble has promoted the general misconception that the majority of tensions experienced in relationships are the result of communication failure.

* In any case, the truth of the matter is that the nature of your relationship with your therapist is far more significant in determining how much benefit you will get from treatment than any particular school of therapy they may belong to. Based on a careful literature review conducted in 1992, M. J. Lambert estimated that while the particular techniques employed account for only approximately 15 per cent of the effectiveness of therapy, the quality of the therapeutic alliance forged between therapist and client contributes a whopping 30 per cent. This is only one in a whole range of studies that would suggest it doesn’t matter so much what particular brand of therapy is being used as how you feel about the person doing it. In 2001 Bruce Wampold, a former statistician who examined the outcomes for treatment of depression, supported Lambert’s conclusions and reported that no one modality of treatment emerged as significantly better than any other – including CBT. More recently the American Psychological Association sponsored a task force to sort out once and for all what works in the therapy relationship. Once again, the same conclusion emerged: the consensus of several thousand studies was that the nature of the therapeutic relationship had just as much impact on whether clients improved (or failed to improve) as any particular treatment method.

* CBT has encouraged a widespread and misplaced assumption that our thoughts (positive or negative) are always the root cause of our emotions and on the back of this rides the expectation that we can reliably mobilise our thoughts to subdue any emotions we don’t want around.

* CBT all but ignores a crucial and all-pervasive dimension of consciousness: the fact that in everyday life the stories we weave to make sense of the world invariably carry a moral or ethical charge. Something in the makeup of the human psyche makes it almost impossible for us to experience the world and our lives except in these terms.

* People often come into therapy not because they are plagued by illogical thoughts but because they instinctively feel that the stories they have sought to live by are unravelling. Something has happened that threatens to undermine the integrity of their personal narrative, or they suddenly find themselves cast by events into roles they never intended or chose for themselves. For others, the opposite is true. These clients are locked into stories and roles from which they feel powerless to escape. The stories we tell ourselves are powerful organising forces. They exercise an inexorable pull over our actions, feelings and choices, rather like a magnetic field draws scattered iron filings into alignment with its own invisible lines of influence.
When dealing with the steady undertow of someone’s implicit narrative, reason and logic often prove feeble instruments.

* the brain is at its most creative in its ‘resting’ state, since this is when multiple regions of the association cortex spring to life.

* Rather than affirming that we are all stronger than we know, a more honest bumper sticker for the human race would probably read: ‘Most of us are weaker than we could possibly imagine.’

* …life should feel like some kind of an endurance sport. Ever since Jane Fonda first encouraged us to ‘feel the burn’ back in the 1970s, we have come to view chronic discomfort not as a warning sign but as reassuring evidence that we are getting somewhere. This is not always the case.
The pain barrier isn’t always there just to be crashed through. Like all barriers its message to us is, ‘Stop! Don’t go any further’ or, at the very least, ‘Proceed with caution’. When you feel physical pain in your body and carry on regardless, sooner or later something is going to break. The same is true of your mind and heart. Yet because endurance has become such an aspirational activity, we don’t always pay enough attention to the warning signs.

* So if our will-power is more dilute than we were led to believe, and if the reality is that we are not ‘powerful beyond measure’ as Williamson and others have promised, where does this leave us?
Well, first we need to recognise that we might be wise to conserve our scant resources. This means not overextending ourselves. If we cannot content ourselves with realistic people-sized goals, then at least increase the odds by not trying to excel in more than one or two areas. Also, however busy we are, we must ensure we take time to do the things and nurture the relationships that will replenish our resources. If Baumeister is to be believed, from time to time this may even include eating the odd Mars bar, but boring stuff like adequate sleep, regular meals and a bit of physical exercise will also help.
Secondly, we should probably reconcile ourselves to our human frailty rather than denying it or (even worse) berating ourselves for it all the time.

* Finally, we need to get our heads round the fact that if we are doing the right thing it just shouldn’t feel that hard or difficult. Of course there is effort involved in achieving anything worthwhile and there are storms that absolutely should be weathered. However, life shouldn’t feel crushing. As psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi has explained, when we find what works for us, we are naturally drawn into a state of ‘flow’ in which we become effortlessly attuned, absorbed and fascinated by the task in hand. Rather than feeling like we are setting our faces against a gale, under these conditions we find the wind forever at our back, propelling us forward or even plucking us into the sky like mad, dancing kites.

* Re: There is no failure only feedback: Although the NLP maxim looks like it offers us a life raft, the refutation of failure is ultimately a denial of ourselves. When we experience failure we recognise that we have been unable to meet goals and standards that we ourselves have set, that we invested in, that we believed were worth something. Since we set the parameters of success in the first place, to refuse to acknowledge failure is tantamount to denying our own reality. When we brush aside the web of values and hopes we have carefully spun as matters of no importance we kill off a bit of ourselves too. Sometimes we need to accept and mourn the death of our dreams, not just casually dismiss them as inconsequential. NLP’s reframe casts us into the role of a widower avoiding the pain of grief by leap-frogging into a rebound relationship with a younger woman, never pausing to say a proper goodbye to his dead wife.

* Most psychologists would agree that we all share a need for some level of control in our lives. In fact, as I know only too well from treating people suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder following a car crash or an assault, one of the things that shakes people up the most is the unwelcome revelation that we actually have far less control over what happens to us than we generally imagine. Without control we are not only left vulnerable, but we also have our noses pressed up against the prospects of chaos, dissolution and death – possibilities that really frighten us.

* People are highly complex, inconsistent creatures who reveal very different aspects of themselves in different contexts. We can only explore our full range within a variety of relationships. Friends, relatives, colleagues all have a role to play. The notion that one person (however marvellous) can respond to every dimension of your multifaceted nature is frankly unrealistic. It can put enormous pressure on a relationship. The phrase ‘They mean the world to me’ is not supposed to imply that any one person can be an adequate substitute for the collective. If we cling to the idea that our partner can be everything we may seek from life, we are setting ourselves up for a fall.

* Discovering the ‘real you’ is a recurrent motif in popular psychological lore. Thanks to the legacy of humanistic psychologists like Carl Rogers, it is widely accepted that most of our emotional tribulations stem from a failure to inhabit our true selves. Psychobabble has convinced us that our authentic selves lie hidden beneath the surface, obscured by the grime and dust of the endless adaptations and compromises that life has forced upon us. By various ways and means, self-help books urge us to excavate them. They promise us that once we have shed those unhelpful defences and pathological habits, escaped the legacy of our troubled past or learned the recommended life skills, then our true nature will shine through.

* The humanist psychologist Carl Rogers, on the other hand, believed that given generous lashings of empathy and unconditional regard, our positive ‘true’ selves will emerge spontaneously like Athena from the head of Zeus. I really like Rogers but it has always struck me as a rather optimistic assumption that if people are true to their real nature then only sweetness and light will issue forth.

* ‘The pastiche personality is a social chameleon, constantly borrowing bits and pieces of identity from whatever resources are available and constructing them as useful and desirable in a given situation. If one’s identity is properly managed the rewards can be substantial – the devotion of one’s intimates, happy children, professional success, the achievement of community goals, personal popularity, and so on. All are possible if one avoids looking back to locate a true and enduring self, and simply acts to fulfil the potential of the moment at hand … Life becomes a candy store for one’s developing appetites.’

* Bizarrely, if you ask a bilingual person to fill in the same personality questionnaire but present it in each of their different languages they often generate strikingly different profiles. Asking the ‘real’ self to step forward seems an increasingly futile gesture.

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Creating Powerful Radio: Getting, Keeping and Growing Audiences

Highlights from this 2007 book:

* “The experimental test of whether this art is great or good, or minor or abysmal is the effect it has on your own sense of the
world and of yourself. Great art changes you.” —Art historian Sister Wendy Beckett

* Radio is an almost magical extension of the human spirit. It can “cry out” and make a listener feel, laugh, and think. Powerful radio rings true and evokes a reaction. It also makes the listener want to keep listening in the hope that this will happen again…

* One by one, the listeners are hunting for that connection, that powerful magic which is often missing from audio media today.

* First, the audience must care about what is said. It must matter to them. It must touch their lives. The content or topic must reach them in a real and true way. And the topic can never be boring, or the audience will tune out. Before anything goes on air, ask yourself:
* Is it relevant?
* Does it matter?
* Do you care?
* Do your listeners care?

* The key to personality radio is, logically, having a personality. This means having a rich, full life and drawing on all of your experiences. How you relate to life is how your audience will relate to you. The best broadcasters are great observers of life. They filter what they see going on around them through their unique creative process, and send it back out to the world. They talk about what they see, notice, think, and feel. They share their real selves. They mention what irritates them, what excites them, what saddens them. They react honestly to the news, current events, and the music they play. They are good storytellers.

If an air personality is doing the job right, audience members will feel that they are being addressed individually. The words “Hello, everybody” or “Good morning, St. Louis” will likely not be heard. The listener should feel that the person behind the microphone is like a friend. The air personality won’t seem like a star but more like someone they would know in real life—a person with daily struggles, life experiences, and problems. Humor helps. You don’t have to be a funny person to recognize a funny moment. This is a key element in creating powerful radio.

* n  Speak in terms your listener can “picture.” Use details. Describe the little things so your audience can “see” what you are talking about.
n  Always start your show with something very interesting. This ought
to be obvious but often isn’t.
n  Tell the truth. Listeners can tell when you don’t.
n  Never be boring. If you are bored, your audience will be too.
n  If something big or important is happening today, go with it. It
may be a pain to change your program or reschedule a guest, but
it’s worth the trouble.
n  Listen to your station, even when you are not on (and check online
content).
n  Make your program matter. Use your own life as a show resource.
Always answer: “Why is this on the air? Why should someone
listen to this?” Would you talk about this OFF air?
n  Bury the dead. If a topic is overdone, drop it.
n  If you are live on air, anything goes! But anything pre-recorded
should be perfect.
n  It’s okay to brag about your stuff—if it’s good. Promote it.
n  Brag about other people’s stuff. If another host on your station had
a “magic moment,” talk about that too.
n  If you don’t know something, it’s okay to say so. Actually, audiences love it when they sense that you are like them.

* If you’ve ever listened to a talk show that seemed to have a slow start, but then picked up after the interview or calls began, you were likely listening to a reactive talent. The minute the host can “react” off of the callers, or interview guest, generating for him or her, the show comes alive.

Many stand-up comedians are reactors. Although they might seem to be generative—after all, they’re standing up doing a monologue in front of a live audience—in reality, if you put those people in a studio, alone in a room, without that live audience generating for them, they may be less colorful. Reactors work best with other people in the room to spark their creative energy.

* Generators have a lot of ideas and energy. They take huge risks and worry about it later. They have moments of brilliance. They
sit alone in a room, and their minds overflow with ideas.

* If you are looking at a reactive talent, you will notice that he or she is quick with a story, a memory, an imitation or a line for any topic you could give him or her. But you must lead the reactor by giving that first push, that suggestion, or a good opening. Leave the reactor alone in a room with no external catalyst for the show, and he or she is miserable. Reactors may do
brilliant interviews, or pick things out of the newspaper that are unique, but they need some kind of initial stimulus to begin the process.

* Generators are scarce. Most people are reactors.

* People do not like to get up in the morning. They are tired, groggy, and do not feel like hopping out of bed on a dark, cold winter morning if they do not absolutely have to.
People feel that from the moment the alarm rings to the moment they get to their jobs, they are on their boss’s time, not their own. Many people do not love their jobs and there is resentment of the morning rush. Because of this, humor on the radio in the mornings is especially important. If you can make a bunch of grouchy, groggy people smile or laugh when they don’t feel like moving, you can keep them listening!

* When you listen to the radio, you notice people who sound spontaneous. They make their work look natural and easy. It seems these people never make a mistake on the air, or, if they do, you hardly notice, or the show takes an unexpected twist and gets even better.

Then there are broadcasters who seem pained and uncomfortable when things go astray. It can make you very nervous to listen to people reacting to a situation that way. How can you make sure you sound like one of the naturals?

The difference between accomplished professionals and talented neophytes is that the seasoned air talent always give you the feeling that they are in control, no matter what happens.

* Finally, hire smart people. And when you find yourself looking for work, try to find the smartest people you can and work for them.

* Principles of management:

n The employee’s behavior is functionally related to the way you treat them.
n People don’t resist their own ideas.
n People will live up (or down) to your expectations of them.
n You must know the individuals you are trying to motivate.
n People will change only when they think they have to.
n Productive activity that is ignored will tend to decrease over time.
n Achievement and recognition are the top motivators at all levels.

* People care about things that are close to them physically, emotionally, spiritually or intellectually. They care about the security of their jobs, the education of their kids, the health of their parents, the cost of their homes, their favorite celebrities, etc. They care about the consequences of the decisions their leaders make. They want the answer to the question “What does this mean to me?”

* A writer who was supposed to meet her husband at an appointed time showed up hours late. He was rather upset when she finally arrived, but she offered this explanation: “I’m so sorry, but I was riding the bus and when my stop came, the people sitting in front of me were right in the middle of a story, and I just had to hear how it ended. I couldn’t get off the bus!”
Sparked by this story, she wrote a book that was then turned into a movie. She became fabulously famous and wealthy, all because she overheard a conversation on a bus that she could use as material.

* An effective “bit” on the radio includes:
n Statement (headline)
n Elaboration (details)
n Kicker (climax and punch-line).

* Broadcast consultant and program director John Mainelli says: “Entertain informatively and inform entertainingly.”

* Put the fun back in your voice. Practice reading children’s stories or trashy romance novels aloud in an exaggerated manner.
Work with a mirror by the mic. Do not worry if you look silly or stupid. The sillier you look, the better you will sound. If there is emotion on your face and in your eyes, we will hear it in your voice.

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The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance In The White House By James David Barber

From the 2017 edition, Introduction:

* Activity is the level of energy that a president devotes to the job, and affect is the level of satisfaction the president obtains from it. He divides each dimension into two categories (active-inactive and positive-negative), creating four possible combinations of character-oriented tendencies.

* For Barber, self-esteem underlies character. The better people feel about themselves, the more likely they will be able to accept criticism, think rationally, and learn on the job. Thus, he maintains that the degree and quality of the president’s emotional involvement in an issue are powerful influences on how he defines the issue itself, how much attention he pays to it, which facts and persons he sees as relevant to its resolution, and what principles and purposes he associates with the issues.

The most well-known aspect of Barber’s analysis is his argument that active-negative presidents experience a common pattern of rigidification resulting from the relationship of a situation they face to their innermost feelings. In other words, these presidents, who are fundamentally insecure, persevere in disastrous policies when opponents threaten their self-esteem, especially their power and rectitude. Always in pursuit of inner phantoms, active negative presidents respond to threats in ways that Barber finds inappropriate for the objective political situation.

* If character forms the inner core of personality, then style is its outer garb. It is a coping mechanism, a means by which people deal with their environment. In Barber’s words, “style is how a . . . President goes about doing what the office requires him to do—to speak, directly or through media, to large audiences; to deal face to face with other politicians, individually and in small, relatively private groups; and to read, write, and calculate by himself in order to manage the endless flow of details that stream onto his desk.”

* Once developed, character, style, and world views tend to persist over time, while issue positions may shift with the public mood and election potential. As a consequence, personality factors may be a better predictor of how people will perform in office than what they say they will do if elected.

James David Barber: My argument comes in layers. First, a President’s personality is an important shaper of his Presidential behavior on nontrivial matters. Second, Presidential personality is patterned. His character, world view, and style fit together in a dynamic package understandable in psychological terms. Third, a President’s personality interacts with the power situation he faces and the national “climate of expectations” dominant at the time he serves. The tuning, the resonance-or lack of it-between these external factors and his personality sets in motion the dynamic of his Presidency. Fourth, the best way to predict a President’s character, world view, and style is to see how they were put together in the first place. That happened in his early life, culminating in his first independent political success.

* In everyday life we sense quickly the general energy output of the people we deal with. Similarly, we catch on fairly quickly to the affect dimension-whether the person seems to be optimistic or pessimistic, hopeful or skeptical, happy or sad.

* Active-positive Presidents want to achieve results. Active-negatives aim to get and keep power. Passive-positives are after love. Passive-negatives emphasize their civic virtue.

* In 1916 he [Woodrow Wilson] confessed he had not read a serious book in fourteen years.

* Wilson was an orator who devoted his energies to explicating his views. He had little use for homework-“research”-and in his interpersonal relations he combined a lecturing style with rejection of opposition and a strong seeking after free affection.

* In the depths of personal grief, Wilson indicates in these passages that he seems to want to use his public life to blot out his private feelings. He tries to believe that he, as an individual with his own hopes and fears, his own identity, no longer exists, that he has disappeared into something larger than himself. He turns violently away from self-contemplation to the tasks Providence has allotted him.

* In a 1914 speech, Wilson revealed what he often felt like inside: “If I were to interpret myself, I would say that my constant embarrassment is to restrain the emotions that are inside of me. You may not believe it, but I sometimes feel like a fire from a far from extinct volcano, and if the lava does not seem to spill over it is because you are not high enough to see into the basin and see the caldron boil.”

* Colonel House had found Wilson “strangely” lacking in self-confidence. That lack seems confirmed as we review Wilson’s character. His very frequent depression and discouragement, his self-punishing working habits, his inability to laugh at himself as President, his continual defensive denial that his own preferences were involved in his decisions, and particularly the extremely high standards he set for his own performance-standards which never let him be satisfied with success-all reveal a person gripped by an extraordinary need to bolster his self-esteem. Suspended in a kind of purgatory between God and the people, Wilson everlastingly sought to justify his choices on “principle,” thus adding to the force of purpose the highest of callings. He experienced in severe form the fight against the temptation to quit, to give in and leave the field to enemies who would subvert all he believed in. Instead, Wilson found a way to fight off despair and to express anger by trying to force his attention away from himself and by devoting all his talent and energy to political leadership. The instrument for that purpose was his impressive oratorical skill. Through his voice Wilson could express his bottled-up anger, could appeal for love and power, and could bring to heel the evil men who opposed him. For that to work there always had to be an issue which he could invest with moral fervor and to which he could devote his “single-track mind.” In short, Wilson attempted to compensate for low self-esteem by dominating his social environment with moralistic rhetoric.

* Hoover’s demeanor affected his political relations. His inability to enter into genuinely cooperative relations with others-relations involving compromise, an appreciation for the irrational in politics, a sense of the other man’s position-meant that his endeavors to induce an enthusiastic response were doomed to failure. He could lead an organization of committed subordinates-as in the Belgian relief work-but he could not create that commitment among leaders with their own bases of power and their own overriding purposes.

* Like Wilson, he appears as a President trying to make up for something, to salvage through leadership some lost or damaged part of himself.

* When Johnson dealt with a person not under his control, he was often flattering and helpful. As with the newsmen, he would try to give the other what he wanted, or at least some of it.

* Once aboard, once clearly under Johnson’s control, his people experienced the second version of the Johnson Treatment. From that point on, Johnson expected complete conformity to his will-expressed and unexpressed. His bullyragging, domineering behavior advertised itself throughout Washington. Snarling at telephone operators, threatening his Secret Service guards, Johnson behaved at times like a drunken tyrant. “It isn’t that he’s mean to important people,” one Kennedy man said sorrowfully, “he’s mean to his servants.”

* Back in 1956, Johnson decided he needed James Rowe, an old friend then in a profitable Washington law practice, to run his staff outside the Senate. Rowe was reluctant. Johnson got Rowe’s law partner and another close friend to put the pressure on, and finally Rowe was astonished to hear his wife chime in, urging him to give Lyndon a hand. Rowe began to melt. He offered to work for Johnson two days a week. Not enough. Four days? No, said Johnson, he wanted Rowe full time. In fact, he went on, Rowe should resign from his law firm. Rowe protested. Johnson, sensing victory, offered personally to call up Rowe’s clients to explain. With tears now welling from his eyes, Johnson begged and cajoled. How badly he needed Rowe! Rowe finally surrendered.

The mood changed abruptly. Away went the tears. “Don’t forget,” Johnson told Rowe, “I’ll make the decisions.”31 In less than a year, Rowe, who never did establish command of the Johnson staff, was back in his law firm.

* The third Johnson Treatment appeared at exit time. When Bill Moyers left to become publisher of Newsday, Johnson let his bitterness out: “When Moyers became my Press Secretary, my popularity was at an all-time high and nobody ever heard of Bill Moyers. When he left I was at an all-time low and Bill Moyers was a world hero.” Leaving Johnson was, to him, a sign of disloyalty. When Eric Goldman departed, Johnson refused even to acknowledge his resignation and let out the news that the historian had worked mainly for Mrs. Johnson. McNamara was derided when he left. But perhaps the most striking feature of phase three of the Johnson Treatment was his abandonment of lifelong intimates when they got into trouble.

* In conference, Hoover was a fact machine grinding out careful plans. Wilson made addresses to small audiences. But Lyndon Johnson was, in all three versions of the Treatment, out to use whatever technique would confirm his own power. Basically he took advantage of a phenomenon threaded through all of politics-pluralistic ignorance. Divisions of labor create barriers to communication across specialties; the man at the top can develop a certain amount of play in the system by varying his message as he relates to one segmented subdivision after another. He places himself at the center of the information process, interpreting reality for officials only loosely linked to one another. They learn to come to him because he is the man who knows, and he in turn fosters this dependence and works to inhibit any extraneous horizontal communication.

* But the crux of Johnson’s interpersonal style was his habit of turning occasions for mutuality into occasions for domination. His rhetoric was too much an extension of his interpersonal style to be wholly effective. Clearly he never quite grasped the art of dealing with the press, never really understood the difference between a reporter and a politician.

* The press responded by telling what happened in such encounters and by embroidering the whole affair with sarcasm; Johnson was, they said, “the first President since Roosevelt who enjoyed pulling the wings off flies” -and lifting beagles by the ears. When his control over secrecy and surprise leaked away, or when the press caught him in some obvious falsehood, Johnson responded furiously with barrages of equally incredible explanations. “Even as the credibility problem deepened,” writes Hugh Sidey, “Johnson could not break himself of his habits. He persisted in staging his playlets, and almost always they backfired.”

* When Johnson’s rhetoric seemed to go well with public audiences, he felt euphoric. He was, he said in 1964, “the most popular Presidential candidate since Franklin Roosevelt.” The campaign lifted his heart: “When I get out of that car, you can just see them [the voters] light up and feel the warmth coming up at you …. Those Negroes go off the ground. They cling to my hands like I was Jesus Christ walking in their midst.” The people, he thought, “have a baby-like faith in me.” And when he was high in the Gallup poll he carried copies in his pocket and would say, “The reason I love so many polls is that over the years I’ve learned that they’re pretty accurate.”

Then when the credibility gap yawned ever wider, Johnson turned irascible. “I never used to have trouble with the press. I don’t understand it.” To him the problem became mainly one of technique, of mechanical projection. Photographers were forbidden to photograph him with glasses on or from the right profile. Some forty White House aides were instructed to join the Congressional audience for his State of the Union message and lead the applause; they would be watched from the balcony to see who clapped and how much.

* The problem at its base was that Johnson tried to treat crowds the way he treated individuals in the Oval Office, by dazzling them with a storm of scattered talk. “To Johnson, a crowd was to be breathed on, shouted at a bit, poked, amused, overwhelmed,” and “each assemblage became like a single person seated across his desk.” The result was bored amusement. Combined with the merciless intensity of television coverage and the inevitable inconsistencies as Johnson suited his messages to different audiences, his rhetoric merely complicated a life already tied in too many knots. Roaring on like “a combination of John C. Calhoun and Baron Munchausen,” Johnson never got across to the generation attuned to Kennedy’s cool rhetoric.

Still another aspect of his rhetoric gave Johnson trouble: his inconsistency of rhetorical mode. Not only was the message frequently full of contradiction, but he also would shift-even in the same speech-from a mode of toughness to one of conciliation, from dignity to vulgarity, from gaping vagueness to tight precision. Asked at a White House press conference what he was doing to negotiate a settlement of the war, he could go on for a long stretch of Johnson the peacemaker, in a tone of saintly pliancy. When the next question asked about military operation, he would switch to the stern Commander in Chief, in crisp control of his forces in the field. Like Wilson whose condescension belied his offers to enter a partnership with the press, like Hoover whose gloomy demeanor contradicted the optimism he wanted to convey, Johnson’s shifting mode of expression undercut the believability of his claim to passionate conviction. The message could not correct what the mood communicated.

This was the insensitivity [Hugh] Sidey called “one of those minor tragedies in the make-up of Lyndon B. Johnson …. He just does not become engaged with the people he meets. He does not respond to their overtures, does not pick up opportunities to endear himself. … His mind is on Johnson, not Pago Pago.”

Johnson’s style in the management of detail-his Presidential homework-also suited his emphasis on personal relations. The details he was always most interested in concerned persons-especially their weaknesses, their vulnerabilities, their prides and fears. “On the Hill he had been a virtual encyclopedia of the fallibility of his fellow legislators.” In the Dominican crisis he spent hours going over the credentials of various leaders. And as President he could draw on and deepen his incredible memory for what specific men wanted. His other subject of continuing scholarship was himself. Apparently he read one book during his Presidency, Barbara Ward’s The Rich Nations and the Poor Nations-read it “like the Bible,” he later said. But in his lifetime he admitted that since college he had not read “six books all the way through.” Yet he was an avid reader, listener, and viewer of three television sets at once, when it came to commentary on Lyndon Johnson.

* As Johnson moved into the Presidency in 1963, one of his Senate colleagues gave this prediction: “Lyndon’s ideas were set in thick concrete by World War II. Every big action he takes will be determined primarily on the basis of whether he thinks any other action will look like a Munich appeasement. The reasons he will give publicly for his actions will not be those he really believes, because in the Senate he said what he thought you wanted to hear. And he will not change course even when he knows he is wrong, because he has a preposterous idea he is bound to lose face if he does. The only advisors he will listen to are those who will tell him what he wants to hear, for he is not a man who tolerates listening to both sides of a problem. In addition, Lyndon sees the Cold War as permanent, the enemy unchangeable, and every anti-United States activity anywhere on the face of the earth as a deliberate act controlled by an international monolithic Communist network operating from the Kremlin in Moscow. He will pay lip-service to an East-West detente, but he doesn’t believe in it. Furthermore, since his entire training has been that of a politician trying to overpower other politicians, he will rely on personal diplomacy to buy off, threaten and coerce other nations.4”

* Johnson in the midst of struggle-developing a secret arrangement or pumping hands in a crowd-could feel a burst of elation, but not for long. Success in gaining power gave him no pause; he felt compelled to go on. “Often at this desk I don’t do what I really want to do. I do what I have to do,” he said, and trying to find out what that was gave him his major frustration, turned him into “the loneliest” and “the most denounced man in the world.” He would wonder aloud just what it was people liked about Jack Kennedy, and “Why don’t people like me?” (To which Dean Acheson replied, “Because, Mr. President, you are not a very likable man.”) He felt a stranger among his inherited advisors, extraordinarily sensitive to slurs by all the “overbred smart alecks who live in Georgetown and think in Harvard.” And he wondered continually about his adequacy to be what he so desperately wanted to be, a Great President.

* President Johnson’s manipulative maneuvering, his penchant for secrecy, his lying, his avid interest in himself, his sense of being surrounded by hostile forces, and his immense anger all indicate, I think, a profound insecurity-not so much about his “intelligence and ability” (he knew he had those), but precisely about his “heart” and “guts.” His heart symbolizes his consciencebound need to be loving and generous, to “do unto others as you would have others do unto you.” His gut symbolizes toughness, the press for power, the need to do it to the other guy before he can do it to you. Caught between those forces, Johnson thrashed about for some ground in the middle, loosing the tremendous tension he felt in a flood of talk.

Activity provided him with distraction; he found the Presidency “a hell of a whirl” with himself at the center, cool in crisis: “When the bullets start whizzing around my head, that’s when I’m calmest.”

* By definition, the active-negative character, compared to the characters of other Presidents, displays a high expenditure of energy on political tasks and a continual, recurrent, negative emotional reaction to that work.

* The active-negative type is, in the first place, much taken up with selfconcern. His attention keeps returning to himself, his problems, how he is doing, as if he were forever watching himself. The character of that attention is primarily evaluative with respect to power. Am I winning or losing, gaining or falling behind? It is, secondarily, evaluative with respect to virtue. In the struggle, am I being a good person or a bad person? The active-negative’s perfectionistic conscience lends to his feelings about himself an aU-or-nothing quality. He wavers between grandiosity and despair. Similarly there is little incorporation of a sense of the self as developing in time, progressively growing through experience; rather, there is a now-or-never quality. Similarly, the perfectionism imposes unclear guidelines for achievement; one is supposed to be good at everything all the time. Therefore there is a resistance to self-definition, a lack of clarity in the person’s commitment to shared loyalties and to particular sequences of achievement building toward special goals.

* These two themes-the denial of self-gratification and the struggle to control aggressive impulses-come together in the active-negative’s perennial temptation to fight or quit. Images of breaking out, attacking, releasing free anger compete with fantasies of abandoning effort for quiet, relaxation, ease-even death.

* The active-negative lives in a dangerous world-a world not only threatening in definite ways but also highly uncertain, a world one can cope with only by maintaining a tense, wary readiness for danger. The prime threat is other people; he tends to divide humanity into the weak and the grasping, although he may also, with no feeling of inconsistency, idealize “the people” in a romantic way. In struggling to understand social causality, he restricts the explanations to conspiracy or chaos, fluctuating between images of tight, secret control and images of utter disorder. He strives to resolve decisional conflicts by invoking abstract principles in order to render manageable a too complex reality.

The active-negative’s political style is persistent and emphatic. That is, he shows a stylistic specialization more markedly than other Presidents do (as in Wilson’s oratory, Hoover’s homework, Johnson’s interpersonal relations}, and he tends to inflexibility in shifting his stylistic repertoire. Furthermore, he is likely to extend his primary stylistic emphasis into his total style, to treat all occasions as if they were amenable to mastery by means of his main political habit pattern.

While the active-negative’s character is taken up with his own performance, he continually seeks confirmation of his self-esteem from other people; in this sense he is highly dependent upon positive response from the environment. He feels confirmed in his expectations by vigorous opposition, but is disconcerted by and strongly threatened by ridicule, contempt, or personal denigration. His tendency over time is to focus anger on a personal enemy, usually an opponent who treats him, he feels, with condescension.

But the most pervasive feeling in the active-negative’s makeup is “I must.” He is a man under orders, required to concentrate, to produce, to follow out his destiny as he sees it. At any given moment, he feels bound by what he has already undertaken, already promised, already committed. The central conflict between virtuousness and power-seeking is never resolved, but is massively denied in the feeling that whatever one does, one has no choice. The tragic sacrifice in such a personality is the sacrifice of will. Not only others, but the man himself is reduced to an instrument. He finds it hard even to see alternatives to the course he “must” follow, much less to change that course when it proves unproductive.

From the inside, then, the active-negative type generates tremendous energies for political domination. From the outside, he seems at first extraordinarily capable and then extraordinarily rigid, becoming more and more closed to experience, including the advice of his ardent allies. Over time, he has a powerfully disillusioning effect, because so much was expected from him when he started but these expectations have been disappointed continually as the man stubbornly adheres to his course and waxes so moralistic in its defense.

* For the active-negative Presidents, the central hypothesis is this: having experienced severe deprivations of self-esteem in childhood, the person develops a deep attachment to achievement as a way to wring from his environment a sense that he is worthy; progressively, this driving force is translated into a search for independent power over others, pursued with intense dedication, and justified idealistically. Whatever style brings success in domination is adopted and rigorously adhered to; but success does not produce joy-the person is frequently depressed-and therefore ever more striving is required. The shape of this character-based pattern is clear by the completion of the man’s first independent political success.

* In Tommy’s mind from an early age was an image of himself as weakminded but, potentially at least, strong-willed. The answer was work-work to gain success, work to distract himself from dangerous thoughts, work to confirm his worthiness, and work to turn his life outward. But to provide relief for the volcanic passions inside him without violating the stern commands of conscience, work required another quality: it must be hard. He must suffer with it. Meanwhile, Tommy’s mind was moving toward a view of the world compatible with his inner needs.

* One’s life must be guided by “a standard set for us in the heavens … the fixed and eternal standard by which we judge ourselves.” The fight was life or death: “In the war with human passions and the war with human wrong, every man must do battle for the forces of light against the forces of ignorance and sin …. For a man who has lost the sense of struggle, life has ceased.” There could be no deal with evil: “God save us from compromise.” And no space for waverers: “He who is not with me is against me.”

Before he was twenty, Thomas Woodrow Wilson had a faith too high to be questioned. The Christian life for him was a war, a perpetual striving upward toward perfection, that did not admit of degrees, ambiguities, falterings, or worst of all-“compromise.”

* His path was through speaking. Wilson ’79 was a talker; as he made friends they found him “companionable, friendly, genial, generally popular in the class,” thanks in part to his fund of amusing stories, his good singing voice, and his performance as Marc Antony in a spoof called “The Sanguinary Tragedy of Julius Sneezer.” But he also talked seriously, increasingly so, raising for discussion topics of the day so he could test his ideas against those of the other students. Wilson excelled at a special type of oratory: extemporaneous debate. Though he threw himself into reading and reciting great orations, his record in formal contests, which stressed “an ornate, pompous, vapid style of declamation,” was one of modest success only, and he regularly paid a fine rather than take part in essay competitions. He wanted to mean what he said and to bring others around to his point of view. “Oratory is persuasion,” he wrote, “not the declamation of essays. The passion and force of oratory is spontaneous, not carefully elaborated.” “What is the object of oratory?”, he asked. “Its object is persuasion and conviction-the control of other minds by a strange personal influence and power.”

* Again and again, Wilson stresses success in parliamentary debate as the key to power in his reformed American system. As Bragdon concludes, “Wilson proposed such changes in the structure of the government of the United States as would provide an outlet for his special talents and a field where he might realize his high·ambitions. He was in effect demanding that the entire American political system be radically altered so that he might realize his aspirations for public office and public service.”

* By the end of his student days at Princeton, Woodrow Wilson had revealed his political personality. As a little boy he had felt weak, unattractive, and stupid, especially in comparison with his overwhelming father. In the family circle he was forever being told that he should do better, and he was forever failing to live up to the standards of perfection set for him. But the frustrations such a regimen inevitably engendered in Tommy could not be expressed against a father and mother who gave him so much love and protection; they were too good to fight. Therefore, with his parents’ encouragement, he learned to repress anger, not to think about it, not to worry or dwell upon his feelings. Nor could he intellectualize conflict with his parents by dissenting from their strong Calvinistic beliefs: religious principles were beyond debate in the Wilson family, where faith meant the prohibition of doubt. Instead he turned against himself and developed that sense of fundamental inferiority which was to haunt and depress him throughout his life. Tommy’s first decade stamped into his character the feeling
that his troubles were his own fault.

Slowly he began to seek out ways to escape from the painful trap built by his upbringing. In fantasy he imagined himself a hero, a powerful dashing English Lord Commodore, magnificent orator, leader of Christ’s Army. At play he dominated the action; in his imaginary world he always established himself as the man in charge. That accomplished, he focused his attention on precise detail-on exact descriptions of ships, on the loops and whirls of phonographic writing-which served to occupy a mind uncomfortable with introspection and also to enhance a sense of control over his mythical environment that he could not achieve in his real one. At the dinner table he could never seem to get his words right. Sitting in his own room, he dreamed of becoming a Gladstone.

* I have argued that clearer clues are visible in the earlier life history; character is discernible in childhood, world view in adolescence, and style in the period of first independent political success. The last of these is most important for our purposes, in part because the evidence of style is usually better there than for even earlier times, and in part because style draws together in a more or less integrated package the earlier themes, making the total picture easier to see.

* For the active-negative Presidents, the central hypothesis is this: having experienced severe deprivations of self-esteem in childhood, the person develops a deep attachment to achievement as a way to wring from his environment a sense that he is worthy; progressively, this driving force is translated into a search for independent power over others, pursued with intense dedication, and justified idealistically. Whatever style brings success in domination is adopted and rigorously adhered to; but success does not produce joy-the person is frequently depressed-and therefore ever more striving is required. The shape of this character-based pattern is clear by the completion of the man’s first independent political success.

Find these intense young men struggling to prove their power and virtue, working much and laughing little, and you will have found your future Wilsons, Hoovers, and Johnsons.

* The pattern was there [for Woodrow Wilson]: deprivation, low selfesteem, a turning to external achievement, a confirming world view, a definitive style rigidly adhered to, a sequence from persuasion to domination, and the search for new worlds to conquer.

* The primary risk in electing an active-negative character to the Presidency is the risk of disaster, of one man’s personal tragedy plunging the nation into massive social tragedy. Conceivably that risk could be worth taking, as for example when the danger of drift or inaction is even greater. But the potential for grievous harm will nearly always overshadow the positive possibilities.

* The picture of the active-negative President appears in layers. First there is the perseverance in following a policy despite strong evidence that it is proving counterproductive. Second, there is the fact of the President’s strong emotional investment in the failing policy, a matter readily observable to staff men and reporters. Third, there is the realization that the policy line in question is not an isolated item but part of a wider pattern, that it is linked dynamically to a political personality with its own configuration of style, world view, and character…

* The Wilson, Hoover, and Johnson stories show, amid wide stylistic contrasts, certain common elements. In each case the boy was subjected to strong deprivations of self-esteem. From the child’s perspective, these deprivations were imposed by parents who denigrated, abandoned, or failed to provide for the child. But the family situation was such that the anger such deprivation inevitably engenders could not be expressed directly to the parents. Wilson’s were too loving, Hoover’s were dead, Johnson’s were too dominating. Rather, the anger was turned inward, against the self, repressed and denied for a time, except perhaps in fantasy. The child developed an extraordinarily demanding conscience which required at once rigid self-control and superior achievement.

In each case the child was able to find in his culture sources of support for his view of the world as power-ridden, dangerous, and yet amenable to control through disciplined effort. He adopted fragments of belief confirming his sense that he could and should take himself strongly in hand, that he should force his world to help him implement his version of righteousness. Closed to introspection or unable to question his need-fulfilling beliefs, he focused his mind on the problem of manipulating practical forces for change.

Eventually opportunities for political action (in the broadest sense) appeared and furnished an arena in which he could devote immense energies to projects which would gratify his need of both power and righteousness. He was able to develop there a special cluster of techniques for winning dominant positions legitimately-Wilson through words, Hoover through work, Johnson through persons. Because this stylistic pattern satisfied very strong personal needs, he fastened on it, treating it not as a flexible instrument for a particular task, but in many ways as a magic answer. Once power was achieved, the power needs emerged more clearly from behind the style; dominating behavior became more pronounced and aroused resistance.

* To the active-negative mentality, ridicule is not funny. It is too close to the truth. It helps freeze a man.

* In June of 1974 the President went to the Middle East in spite of Secret Service and CIA warnings that terrorists might try to kill him there. Pain and swelling in his leg made Nixon call in his two doctors, who saw he had a blood clot that could break loose and kill him in a moment. Both doctors demanded he cancel the trip. Nixon refused. Nor would he heed their urgent counsel that he stay off his feet. Rather, he spent hours standing up and waving in open cars and railroad carriages; he hiked around the pyramids. Unexpectedly he got out of his car and walked into a mob of Arabs, from which he was extricated with some difficulty by the Secret Service agents. He vetoed the use of bulletproof shields. 132 His doctor said: “The President has a death wish.” His main Secret Service guard said: “You can’t protect a President who wants to kill himself.” On the way to Damascus, the President’s plane was closely approached by four unidentified Russian-built MIG fighters. Nixon’s pilot went through violent evasive action for several minutes before the planes were identified.

* In character, Harding displays even more clearly than Taft the typical passive-positive theme: the hunger for love, the impelling need to confirm one’s lovableness.

* If Reagan had acted on the public stage as he acted in his private office, Americans might have paid attention to the prediction that he would be a passive-positive President. They might have voted him down. But public Reagan came on differently, imitating the style of Franklin D. Roosevelt, one of his early heroes. Reagan the candidate seemed to be a gung-ho leader, an energetic and confident and intense and determined person who would issue his orders to his subordinates and demand that they make those orders actually happen.

* To be sure, he came on as if he were a Mr. Active-looking and sounding like a leader bursting with energy, a fellow who seemed so confident and intense and determined to lead the nation in the right direction that it seemed foolish to suppose he was passive. The natural presumption is “how he looks is what he is,” a thesis worth rejecting if you think hard about persons you have known, as well as Presidents you have studied. After all, Harding and Taft came on to the voters of their times as inspiring leaders. And so did Reagan, the first professional actor to step onto the stage of the White House and win in the age of television. Passive-positives are seldom what they seem to be.

* “For a successful man,” Time reported, “Reagan is very passive, with little fire or curiosity …. Indeed, Reagan makes little effort even to learn exactly what it is that his advisors are up to.” 16 One aide tried to explain the boss’s languor: “He likes to lie dormant and then spring to life.” 17 Compared to the schedules of a Jimmy Carter or a Lyndon Johnson, or even a Jerry Ford, President Reagan’s schedule was Tahitian.

* “Reagan likes quiet, easygoing, collegial people who can submerge themselves in a harmonic whole,” Cannon notes.23 His wife concurs: “He doesn’t function well if there are tensions,” she reports. “He likes everyone to like one another and get along.”2

* Reagan on television did seem like a Roosevelt, but when the camera went off he acted like Taft and Harding-not exactly, but fundamentally. Casper Weinberger saw him as “light-hearted, serene, secure within himself, a happy man who wants to have all the people in the room that he’s meeting with happy, too, and wants to have his countrymen happy and serene.”27 Lou Cannon saw him as “unbelievably passive when not on stage”28, a President who “hugely enjoyed the spectacle of cabinet meetings, even if he did not always stay awake at them.”29 George Will, a friend of Reagan’s, saw him possessed of “a talent of happiness.”30 Nancy Reagan brought out that “Of course he has his moods and his disappointment, but on the whole, Ronnie is the most upbeat man I’ve ever known,”31 and “an affable and gregarious man who enjoys other people…”

* Ronald Reagan was never in any serious or thoughtful way an ideologue of any sort. He had never made any serious study of ideologies; as for economics, he took some courses at a third-rate college half a century ago-and remembered he had to fake exams because he had not studied the material. The course of Reagan’s subsequent “ideological” development is much more clearly explained by the drift of his personal development than by any philosophical pilgrimage or burst of enlightenment. To put it plainly, Reagan’s conservatism has been circumstantial, not visceral. What has remained consistent in his life history is his desire to please the very rich mentors who picked him up and brought him to where he is today. The desire to please is rooted in the passivepositive’s personality. That desire is focused in the course of experience, as the personality, seeking an external orientation, fastens on others to give it the guidance and direction it needs. In Reagan’s case, his world view owes much more to that process of adaptation than to some intellectual or politico-religious commitment.

* Lou Cannon wrote that, “Passive and pleasant, Ronald Reagan was married to a woman who was neither … “76 But she did have two major human relations strengths: she stood watch over Ronnie’s emotional welfare like a Roman soldier and she cultivated rich socialites like a Japanese geisha.

* The active-positive Presidents are those who appear to have fun in the vigorous exercise of Presidential power. They seek out-even create-opportunities for action, rather than waiting for the action to come to them. Their enjoyment in Presidential initiative represents a psychological congruence of factors in which the elements reinforce one another powerfully. Fun-in-work
stands for a rare integration, one in which the self need not sacrifice gratification for achievement, but rather grows outward along both fronts simultaneously. Even seen from a distance, these Presidents seem to share a sense of the self as developing. Their apparent happiness in what they do-as Presidents-stands out in contrast to the defenses other Presidents cling to.

* In the examples of active-negative Presidents, Wilson, Hoover, and Johnson, we saw how each infused a particular line of policy, drawn from his special world view, with immense emotional commitment; the destructive rigidity centered on matters of opinion. In contrast, active-positive types see a much more liquid world, a world in which realities and the opinions which reflect them shift continually in no particularly consistent way. The passive-negative Presidents (and their counterparts
in other political realms, I would argue), exemplified by Coolidge and Eisenhower, are less definitely committed to particular deductions from their world views than are the active-negatives. But, while they are more flexible in matters of opinion, they tend to fall back on stylistic continuities, on regularly pursued systems and habits of behavior. The active-positives, in contrast, are freer in their selections from a stylistic repertoire. Passive-positive Presidents and politicians, as Taft and Harding showed, experience their major political difficulties as a result of character rigidity and the tremendous strain of situations pressing them to alter their characteristic habit of compliance and affectionseeking. Investing less of themselves in particular styles and world views, passivepositives are in their way as rigid and restricted as the Wilsons and Coolidges.
Active-positives, such as FDR and the others soon to be discussed, show how a much richer and more varied range of emotional orientations is available to the politician whose character is firmly rooted in self-recognition and self-love. The active-positive not only can perform lovingly or aggressively or with detachment, he can feel those ways. As Roosevelt’s case points out, the genuineness of those feelings can come across powerfully to close associates and to the public at large.

* The great strength of the active-positive type in politics is his hunger for and attention to results. The histories of other Presidencies are surprising in the degree to which they show President after President apparently oblivious of the effects their policies are having on people at home and abroad. Too often their attention is arrested at the level of principle or plausibility or the confirming of some personal theme.

* The critical difference between the active-positive and active-negative pattern in such circumstances is in the former’s ability to accumulate experience without accumulating anxiety, frustration, and guilt. Both sides of the equation seem significant. Truman did not become embittered and morally exhausted. His characteristic grin is there, in photograph after photograph, as added testimony to the verbal reports. He did not experience that sense of progressive diminution that develops in the active-negative mind as it moves through compromise after compromise. Decisiveness meant for him a way of making up his mind how he felt about a matter, a way of confronting it directly and choosing what he wanted; this enabled him to move on with a free will and a whole heart. The active-negative type, on the other hand, is never quite ready to give of himself, risk himself in the same way. He moves on, but he carries with him a residue of resentment and reluctance, of unresolved conflicts which continue to pile up in his mind until he feels tremendous internal pressure to express it. The result has often been a rigid insistence on his own special solution, one clearly at odds with the assumptions of his critics, one which allows him to see himself as a lonely, virtuous, suffering fighter against essentially evil opponents.

* Before a President is elected, debate centers on his stands on particular issues, his regional and group connections, his place in the left-right array of ideologies. After a President has left office and there has been time to see his rulership in
perspective, the connection between his character and his Presidential actions emerges as paramount. Then it becomes clear that the kind of man he was stamped out the shape of his performance. Recognizing this, we ought to be able to find a way to a better pre-figuring, a way to see in potential Presidents the factors which have turned out to be critical for actual Presidents.

* At least by the time the man emerges as an adult, he has displayed a stance toward his experience, a proto-political orientation. The first clues are simple: by and large, does he actively make his environment, or is he passively made by it? And how does he feel about his experience-is his effort in life a burden to be endured or an opportunity for personal enjoyment?

* The affectionate side of politics (much neglected in research) appeals to a people broken apart less by conflict and rivalry than by isolation and anxiety. Most men and women lead lives of quiet desperation; the scattering of families, the anonymity of work life, the sudden shifts between generations and neighborhoods, the accidents caused by a wavering economy, all contribute to the lonesome vulnerability people feel and hide, supposing they are exceptions to the general rule of serenity. Politics offers some opportunities for expressing that directly, as when brokenhearted people line up to tell their Congressman whatever
it is they have to tell. But for many who never tell anybody, politics offers a scene for reassurance, a medium for the vicarious experience of fellowship.

* people admire the man- who does the most artful job of conning them.

Posted in America, Politics | Comments Off on The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance In The White House By James David Barber

RBG

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Ginsburg is so damn overrated. If she was a man with the exact same record he would be known as a CRUSHING BORE. A plodder.

* At the time she was nominated, Alan Dershowitz criticised the appointment, saying she had the soul of a tax lawyer and that wasn’t the person you wanted for your court of last resort.

* She built an entire elaborate legal edifice on top of a defective foundation. Men and women are profoundly different biologically; any legal system that fails to acknowledge this will result in a profoundly unhealthy society.

* Ginsburg’s life is written on her face. If you Google photos of her, you can see her smiling as a child, then pursing her lips in young womanhood, and finally full-on scowling by her later years. This is her real self. She was not a misguided hopeful universalist, she was simply angry over whatever and it turned her into an old, cold bitch who wanted to tear down what wasn’t consonant with her resentments.

* Despite her enormous self-regard (such that she deemed herself above the constraints to which she condemned the rest of us), the actual judicial opinions she wrote—or at least signed—rarely rose above sophistic casuistry. Happy to invoke a point of law when it was convenient, she retreated into abstract principle or irrelevant precedent when that would better suit her not very hidden agenda. She was no Judge Learned Hand, elucidating fundamental principles of justice. Nor was she even a Justice Scalia, whose jaundiced eye bemusedly surveyed the legal landscape congested with the corpses of leftist judicial dogmas asphyxiated by their absurd contortions, and whose flowing pen effortlessly mocked and cataloged these macabre monuments to liberal vanity. At the end of the day, Ginsburg was merely the agent of the prejudices she brought with her to the bench, busily fixing her preferences into legal stone, much to the disadvantage of everyone who has to live with the law she wrote.

Good riddance. She will only be missed by those who view the law as nothing more than a channel to impose their self-righteous vision on those less privileged than themselves.

* RBG seems to have rated herself a queen for life. She should have stepped down in 2014, and let Obama appoint her successor. But Queen Ruth wanted Hillary, our 1st female president to appoint her successor. So Obama was not good enough for her as her successor selector, just like most of those African American law grads who had sought a clerkship with queen Ruth.

* Ginsburg was number one in her class at Harvard Law School while managing not only her course load but also attending her husband’s classes to take notes for him, as he had been diagnosed with cancer. I can tell you that being #1 at Harvard Law School (which at the time had only a handful of female students) even without attending your spouse’s courses to boot is no small feat – it requires not only high intelligence but a prodigious work ethic. As for the workaholic, she showed up at the Supreme Court the day after her husband’s funeral.

This explains why she did not retire under Obama – what was she going to do – stay home and watch soap operas? Even knowing that she was ill, she must have found the work to be distracting. She had been “hitting the books” literally every day since childhood.

The other reason that she did not retire is that she (along with most people) felt certain that Hillary was going to win. So not only would she able to get in another couple of years of work but then she would have the honor of having a woman President name her replacement. Of all the disappointed households on Election Night 2016, hers must have ranked near the top. Of course at that point she was stuck and had no choice but to cling to her seat to the bitter end.

You can see why black law clerks were out of the question for her – even most whites except for the ones at the very tippy top could never meet her standards. There are a lot of blacks in Ivy League law schools nowadays thanks to AA, but as Wax has mentioned elsewhere, they are almost always clustered at the bottom of the class.

This also explains her unwillingness to go along with the Current Year ethic, which requires a certain degree of protective stupidity. Stupidity of any kind was just not on the menu at the Ginsburg household. The Ginsburgs represented sort of the high water mark of meritocracy in America, rising from modest roots (her father immigrated at age 13 and operated a small hat shop) to the pinnacle of American society based purely on their fierce intelligence.

* I’m wondering to what degree Ginsburg ever wrote anything memorable.

I’ve seen plenty a riposte in Scalia’s rulings that were witty, charming, and utterly scathing (especially when he was penning a dissent). I don’t recall ever reading a single such sentence by Ginsburg. Granted, I do tend to hang out in the more conservative corners of the web, but I would still think that after 27 years I would have come across something.

* You’re missing this: confirmation hearings are not about a nominee showing U.S. Senators (and the audience watching at home) how Really Really Smart they are. Nominees who try that sink like a stone. Recall Robert Bork, a genuine legal theorist and scholar. When asked during his confirmation hearing why he wanted to be on the Supreme Court, Bork replied, “It would be an intellectual feast.” Worst answer ever.

By contrast, Ruth Ginsburg understood that the purpose of confirmation hearings is to flatter the senators who will be voting on your nomination, and to say as little as possible of any real substance. If you are Really Really Smart, it’s best to keep that to yourself until you’re safely on the bench. Ginsburg was confirmed, 96-3, so obviously her strategy was the right one.

Bork was ten, maybe twenty times the legal mind that Ginsburg was — but he forgot that the judicial confirmation process is an elaborate piece of Kabuki theatre, with its own codes and rituals. Maybe he just didn’t want to betray his own intellectual convictions; maybe he couldn’t be bothered to trot out stock answers to silly questions that he thought beneath him. (My grandmother, z”l, kept asking me why he hadn’t shaved his scraggly beard before going on live television. She thought it made him look sloppy.) But there’s Really Really Smart, and then there’s Too Smart For His Own Good. Ginsburg was Just Smart Enough to get confirmed.

* THE NEW REPUBLIC, which in its heyday was described as “a more Jewish version of COMMENTARY,” came under fire in the late 1990s for never having had a black staffer. Washington Post publisher Donald Graham, usually an even-tempered fellow, said in 1995 that TNR’s motto should be “Looking for a Qualified Black Since 1914.”

* Not only is she going to be on display for 2 days at the Supreme Court but yet another day in Congress thanks to Nancy Pelosi. We should be glad that they don’t pickle her and put her on permanent display.

What’s shocking to me about this is how far it departs from Jewish custom. It was well known that Ginsburg was not a practicing Jew, having adopted the “tikkun olam” school of Judaism where liberal politics substitutes for any actual religious practice. However, the family did retain some vestiges of Jewishness, such as the fact that her grandchildren called her “Bubbie” (Yinglish for bubbe, grandmother, and not BTW Nana as Steve proposed) although the “dying wish” granddaughter is name Spera for her Italian Catholic father.

Judaism, like Islam, calls for prompt burial. In a hot Middle Eastern climate you don’t want dead bodies hanging around and infecting the living. The dead are given a prompt but respectful burial and the mourning process proceeds with them safely in the ground. Usually, even secular Jews who have fallen away from most religious practice still keep some vestiges of it in connection with important life events.

But the fact that Ginsburg is being given a funeral that is more in accordance with Communist than with Jewish practice speaks volumes and reinforces how unseemly it was that the family attempted to make political hay out of her death by circulating the “dying wish”. I personally don’t doubt that Ginsburg said this (nor is it necessary to disbelieve that she did in order to give it the weight which it deserves, which is none) but there was no reason (other than politics) for the family to bring this wish into the public sphere.

BTW, let us suppose as a law school hypothetical (Ginsburg would have appreciated this) that Ginsburg made the same dying wish but that the year was 2016. Let’s say that she asked the same favor from Obama that she is now asking from Trump. Although one would expect her, as a liberal Democrat, to WANT her replacement to be named by the current President (this alone reveals that it was a base partisan sentiment and nothing to do with respect for the Constitution or any such nonsense) she for unknown reasons (maybe she secretly doesn’t like shvartzes, maybe she wants Hillary to name her replacement – we will never know because all we have to go on is her cryptic last message that her replacement should be named by the new President) makes this same request to her granddaughter. What would have happened then? Would her wish have been afforded the same publicity and weight or would it perhaps have never even left the hospital room? Would the press and the Democrat establishment (but I repeat myself) be loudly clamoring for this wish to be respected or would it be dismissed as perhaps the delirious words of a dying woman?

Posted in America, Law | Comments Off on RBG

NYT: Nxivm ‘Sex Cult’ Was Also a Huge Pyramid Scheme, Lawsuit Says

From the New York Times:

Mr. Raniere and Ms. Salzman built a curriculum that they falsely claimed was based in science, the lawsuit alleged. The early courses conditioned students to become emotionally dependent on a system of rewards and punishment. Coaches would break down the students’ self-esteem and scold them for failing to achieve their goals, then lift them up with a positive affirmation.

“That process leaves you wanting more and feeling like they have the answers,” said a former Nxivm member who is participating in the lawsuit.

The group exploited students’ desires for validation, telling them that only Nxivm classes could fix the internal problems hindering their success. If they reached the top of Nxivm, they were told, they could earn income and build a career within the organization.

Yet the leaders continually manipulated the program requirements so that only a fraction of participants ever received income, the lawsuit said. Students were constantly pressured to take more courses and recruit other students.

Many members effectively became indentured servants for Nxivm, working for years without pay and losing their life’s savings, the plaintiffs said…

Many Nxivm members were shielded from negative press about the group because Mr. Raniere in 2014 created his own news organization called The Knife of Aristotle. Reading outside news was considered an act of rebellion, according to the plaintiffs.

Mr. Raniere and his inner circle tested the loyalty of longstanding members by making extreme demands, the lawsuit said, like asking them to lick a puddle of mud or run headfirst into a tree.

The curriculum became increasingly misogynistic over time, according to the plaintiffs. One of the programs taught women that they were sheltered from the consequences of their actions by men, and that they did not deserve equal pay because they had quit their jobs to have children. Women were to be monogamous, while men were to be polygamous, Nxivm taught.

The slow indoctrination laid the foundation for certain women to be groomed as Mr. Raniere’s sexual partners, the lawsuit alleged.

Students were often scared to quit, having invested so much money and time into an endeavor that they thought could bring them success. They also saw the retaliation by Nxivm leaders against its critics and defectors, former participants said.

Thanks to Ms. Bronfman’s wealth, the lawsuit alleged, Nxivm was able to hire an army of lawyers to sue former members and interfere in their personal bankruptcy proceedings. Nxivm associates gave false statements to law enforcement authorities in Canada and elsewhere to initiate criminal investigations into defectors, according to the lawsuit.

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Antifa Arson?

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Is there any connection between the countless examples of arson in downtown Portland and the wildfires in Oregon?

* You spent three months telling people that you were going to burn everything to the ground, and then a bunch of fires happen. What do you expect people to think? Why would I care about your protestations of innocence?

But if they want to deny it, does this mean they’re admitting that they were full of shit when they threatened to burn everything down? Because if they were serious, then why would they even feel bad about all the fires now? This is what they said they wanted.

* Forest fires really are a function of conditions more than intentions.

Arsonists may or may not try, but if conditions aren’t right, they won’t accomplish much. Conversely, given dry fuel, high temperatures, and some wind — you’ll get fires.

I’ve been looking at the weather. Well, the temperature’s going to drop, and there’s even some rain forecast for sometime next week.

This is going to last through the weekend, then it’ll end — whatever the arsonists do or don’t do.

* Twitter’s giving a safety warning on the link to The Post Millennial:

The link you are trying to access has been identified by Twitter or our partners as being potentially spammy or unsafe, in accordance with Twitter’s URL Policy. This link could fall into any of the below categories:

● malicious links that could steal personal information or harm electronic devices
● spammy links that mislead people or disrupt their experience
● violent or misleading content that could lead to real-world harm
● certain categories of content that, if posted directly on Twitter, are a violation of the Twitter Rules

Gotta love how they’re conflating malicious hacking/phishing sites with thoughtcrime sites. I’m sure that won’t cause any problems for people in the future.

* the mugshots of the arsonists tend to have the same homely physiognomy as antifa mugshots. I think that the real danger, or benefit, depending on how you look at it, of AI facial recognition is that it eventually will be able to “recognize” people who are just losers and criminal types based on how they look, either for genetic reasons (probable), or based on how society treats homely people.

* Who’s been recorded using fireworks in Portland for months now?

Waves of attacks by white supremacists, of course.

Posted in Antifa, Oregon | Comments Off on Antifa Arson?

Jack Cashill: Why I chose to tackle Obama’s sexuality

Jack writes:

Late one night about a year ago, I received a call from the mysterious Charles Johnson. Mother Jones calls Johnson, “Twitter’s most infamous right-wing troll.” Whatever. Johnson knows stuff, much of it true.

He asked me whether I had read David Garrow’s massive 2017 Obama biography, “Rising Star.” When I said I had, he asked whether I had read the paperback version. I had not. He pointed me to a particular page and told me to go get the paperback…

On page 113, I found the excerpt not included in the original version of “Rising Star.” It came from a letter Obama wrote to his college girlfriend, Alex McNear…

Given its content, I could see why the excerpt was left out. Wanting to know who made the decision to do so, I emailed Garrow.

Garrow wrote back promptly, telling me it was McNear who refused to share the lines in question. She told him they were “too explosive,” adding, “They involved gayness.”

A dogged researcher, Garrow followed the unredacted letters to Emory University where they ended up after McNear sold them.

Garrow had a friend go to the library, find the redacted lines, and copy them down by hand. Garrow then inserted this new language into the paperback that came out in May 2018.

Obama, then about 21, had written to McNear that he viewed gay sex as “an attempt to remove oneself from the present, a refusal perhaps to perpetuate the endless farce of earthly life.”

Then came the money quote: “You see, I make love to men daily, but in the imagination. My mind is androgynous to a great extent and I hope to make it more so.”

At the time, Obama was in New York, writing back to McNear who was still in Los Angeles. These sentiments may explain why Obama inexplicably froze McNear out of his life. Garrow describes the letters Obama sent to McNear as “hostile,” even “ugly.”

Dipping into his thesaurus, Obama wrote on one occasion, “You are correct when you say that initially you were to me nothing more than a lovely wraith I had shaped to fit my needs.” And on another, “I no longer feel compelled to try to shackle you in my abstruse dreams.” Shackle?

This revelation came at a good time for me. In writing my book “Unmasking Obama,” I was still debating whether or not I should address the rumors of Obama’s homosexuality.

There was other evidence to consider. One was Obama’s adolescent relationship with CPUSA member Frank Marshall Davis, an admitted bisexual with a taste for underage prey.

Obama wrote one poem about Davis while in college, “Pop,” and likely an earlier one while in high school. Davis appears to have written one about Obama.

“Pop takes another shot, neat / Points out the same amber / Stain on his shorts that I’ve got on mine / and / Makes me smell his smell, coming / From me,” Obama wrote as a 19-year-old.

What young man writes something like that? Well, the same young man who wrote, “I make love to men daily.”

Then too there was the memorable Larry Sinclair. In June 2008, at the National Press Club in Washington, Sinclair related the alleged details of a two-day coke and sex romp with the then-married Obama in 1999.

Sinclair provided dates, the name of the hotel, the name of the Muslim limo driver who arranged the assignation, the specifics of their sexual interlude, and challenged the media to follow up. They did not. Instead, as was their habit during the Obama years, they attacked the messenger.

… In his email, Garrow related how the media ignored the bombshell in his paperback, writing, “Even the Daily Caller, which I’m 98% certain knew of the change, didn’t do anything with it.”

Posted in Barack Obama | Comments Off on Jack Cashill: Why I chose to tackle Obama’s sexuality

Saying Goodbye to Australia

Isabella Kwai writes for the New York Times Australia newsletter:

It was the slow pace that struck me most when I returned to my hometown, Sydney, three years ago from Washington, D.C.

Walking behind strangers, who always seemed to amble slowly, was unbearable. Old friends invited me to lazy afternoons in the sun to catch up. Sometimes, the conversation lapsed into brief silences.

I found this relaxed attitude quite alarming. The feeling was apparently mutual. “Highly strung” was the diagnosis for me, according to one friend.

But by then I had absorbed the lessons of studying in the United States, where there had always been somewhere to rush and never enough time to slow down. They called it “the American Dream,” the belief that with hard work you could realize your deepest, most cherished ambitions.

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Reaganland: America’s Right Turn 1976-1980

Here are some highlights from this 2020 book by Rick Perlstein:

* Ford began gaining—until his campaign was rocked by a gaffe.
It turned on the issue of race. Richard Nixon had once been a friend to Martin Luther King Jr. and the civil rights movement, receiving 40 percent of the black vote in 1960. Then, however, the Republican Party changed directions on the issue for good: they nominated Barry Goldwater, who voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He got only 6 percent of the black vote. In 1968, Nixon followed Goldwater’s lead, aiming his appeal at white segregationists in the South, and white Northerners opposed to busing to desegregate public schools.
In 1972, nonwhites were practically the only voters who didn’t support Richard Nixon, giving him 13 percent. But for some Republicans this new reality had not yet sunk in.
Mal MacDougall predicted Ford would receive “what a Republican presidential candidate can normally expect”: 30 percent of the back vote.
Not likely now. Late in September
a Rolling Stone dispatch related a conversation that took place aboard an airplane bearing pop star Sonny Bono, the squeaky-clean crooner Pat Boone, and a member of Ford’s cabinet to California after the Republican convention.
“It seems to me that the Party of Abraham Lincoln could and should be able to attract more black people,” Boone reflected. “Why can’t this be done?”
The cabinet secretary smiled mischievously: “I’ll tell you why you can’t attract coloreds. Because the coloreds only want three things. You know what they want?”
Boone shook his head.
“It’s three things: first a tight pussy; second, loose shoes; and third, a warm place to shit. That’s all!”
Another magazine divined that the jokester was Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz. He was an enormously consequential figure, the person most responsible for radically transforming American farming from a family-based to an industrial enterprise, but now the main thing he would be remembered for was a racist dirty joke. The press pounced—once their nervous editors figured out how to report it in a sufficiently family-friendly manner. (In San Diego, the biggest local paper offered readers a copy of the unexpurgated text only upon written request.) Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, a Republican, the Senate’s only African American, demanded Butz’s resignation. Ford dithered for several days, then, on October 3, he convened a press conference at which an ashen-faced Butz announced he was quitting, then left the room; then, Ford warmly praised him.

* Almost immediately, commentators began latching onto Ford’s “no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe” formulation as a bubbleheaded misstatement, a “gaffe”—evidence that Ford was losing a step.
The facts were more complicated. Ford was speaking accurately about a complex reality on the ground. Conservatives described the nations occupied by the Soviet Union after World War II as an undifferentiated mass of “slave states.” But Poland had resisted Russian control to a sufficient degree that Eisenhower granted it most favored nation trade status. (Joseph Stalin himself had supposedly observed that trying to impose his will on Poland was like trying to saddle a cow.) Kennedy said America should “seize the initiative when the opportunity arises” to reward Communist Bloc states for good behavior. Richard Nixon said Eastern Europe countries were “sovereign, not part of a monolith.”
This was why Ford refused to apologize for what he saw, at worst, as an infelicity of expression. But reporters kept pestering him. Eastern European ethnic leaders—who had prevailed upon Congress in 1959 to establish a Captive Nations Week observance every July—piled on, too.

* AT FIRST THE PRESIDENT, A staid Episcopalian, was reluctant to talk about faith; the campaign pressed the message via surrogates, like Ford’s seminarian son Mike, who said, “Jimmy Carter wears his religion on his sleeve but Jerry Ford wears it in his heart,” and released Ford’s private letter to an evangelical film producer named Billy Zeoli: “Because I trusted Christ to be my savior, my life is His.”
Then, Ford stuck his finger in the wind, and took the plunge himself.
Shortly after the foreign policy debate,
Ford hosted thirty-four evangelical leaders—proprietors of telecasts like Back to the Bible and The Hour of Freedom , executives from Billy Graham’s ministry and the Campus Crusade for Christ, Christian radio station owners, publishers, Bible college deans—for seventy minutes in the cabinet room. The star attendee was a preacher who’d first come to the nation’s attention after Brown v. Board of Education , when he demanded, “Don’t force me by law, by statute, by Supreme Court decision… to cross over in those intimate things where I don’t want to go. Let me build my life. Let me have my church. Let me have my school. Let me have my friends. Let me have my home. Let me have my family. And what you give to me, give to every man in America and keep it like our glorious forefathers made—a land of the free and the home of the brave.”
He also said the movement for racial integration was “aching of idiocy and foolishness,” that the “idea of the universal brotherhood of man and the fatherhood of God is a denial of everything in the Bible,” and that civil rights activists were “a bunch of infidels, dying from the neck up.” He claimed to have never seen a movie in his life and never intended to—until an actor named Ronald Reagan persuaded him that not all of them were sinful… His name was Dr. W. A. “Wally” Criswell.

* THE TERM “NEW RIGHT” WAS coined in 1974 by the writer and former Nixon Justice Department official Kevin Phillips. One of the figures he was describing, a man named Paul Weyrich, was once asked to explain what made the New Right new. He answered that they weren’t really conservatives. They were “radicals working to overturn the present power structure in this country.”

The New Right’s discontinuities from the old one would be exaggerated in the years to come—not least by its self-mythologizing leaders. But there were some important differences. For one thing, they believed Barry Goldwater, in whose presidential campaign many had cut their political teeth, was by then too much a member of the establishment to retain their respect. That made the outsider Orrin Hatch a natural recruit. “I’m a non-politician,” he liked to say. “I’ve spent most of my professional life fighting the growing, oppressive federal bureaucracy, mostly for working people.”

That notion—conservatism as an ideology for working people—was another New Right theme. Viguerie’s father had been a construction worker; his mother toiled in a paper mill and sold milk from the family cow. Another movement principal was the son of a furnace stoker. Kevin Phillips grew up in the Bronx, and excoriated “conservatives whose game it is to quote English poetry and utter neo-Madisonian benedictions over the interests and institutions of establishment liberalism.” He wished instead to build “a cultural siege-engine out of the populist steel of Idaho, Mississippi, and working-class Milwaukee, and then blast the Eastern liberal establishment to ideological-institutional smithereens.” Another New Right pioneer said he was fighting “a guerrilla battle at the grassroots of a generation of lower-middle-class people who feel betrayed and exploited.”

For the left, employers were the exploiters. The New Right replied that the true exploiters were federal bureaucrats grasping for tax dollars, and the media elites who shoved 1960s libertinism down Middle America’s throats. New Rightists were obsessed with what were known as the “social issues”—crime, government intrusion into family life, sexual mores, the right to own a gun. Reagan’s establishmentarian presidential campaign manager John Sears dismissed them as the “emotional issues.” But the New Right reveled in emotion—particularly, the emotion of resentment.

The prototypical New Right crusade was a movement in 1974 of fundamentalist Christians in the union stronghold Kanawha County, West Virginia, against the “educrats” who issued textbooks they considered ungodly. The protests escalated to the point of dynamiting the school board building. The Heritage Foundation, the New Right’s new think tank, sent a lawyer to represent the alleged bombers, and introduced the Kanawha organizers to fellow anti-textbook crusaders around the country. “We talk about issues that people care about,” Weyrich said unapologetically: a voter brought into the conservative tent via an “alliance on family issues is bound to begin to look at the morality of other issues”—like “the unjust power that has been legislated for union bosses.”

Jimmy Carter’s pollster Pat Caddell understood how dangerous all this could prove to the Democratic coalition: blue-collar voters were vulnerable to conservative appeals because they were “no longer solely motivated by economic concerns—which have traditionally made them Democrats.” Now that they feared “change in society” more than losing their place in the middle class, they were “one of the most vulnerable groups in the Democratic coalition.” The New Right social-issue strategy was rooted in just that—and not, at least at first, in the ideological convictions of its leaders. Those were more along the lines of the ones Barry Goldwater wrote about in Conscience of a Conservative in 1960: ending farm subsidies and the progressive income tax, facing down the Soviets even at the risk of nuclear war—the sort of notions that, when Goldwater ran for president, scared voters half to death. So the New Right searched for more tantalizing lures. As organizer Howard Phillips put it: “We organize discontent.” Organizing discontent meant foraging for whatever issues roused an otherwise apathetic citizenry to conservative political action. Presently, social issues were it.

* THE HEART OF THE NEW Right was a very small leadership cadre, whose political roots were in the lonely work of conservative organizing during the Kennedy years. Howard Phillips came from a Jewish New Deal family in working-class Boston. In the early 1960s, he helped found the conservative youth group Young Americans for Freedom—and proved himself a shrewd enough politician to win office as student body president at liberal Harvard. In 1971 he was appointed by President Nixon to head the Office of Economic Opportunity, which administered the federal war on poverty. Phillips loaded it up with so many young conservatives that veteran OEO bureaucrats started referring to Phillips’ “YAFia.” Then, however, in 1973, Phillips was let go after the press got wind of what Nixon had actually hired him to do at OEO: dismantle it. Phillips believed Nixon had given up without a fight. So he founded Conservatives for the Removal of the President to fight for his impeachment—not because of Watergate, but because, Phillips later explained, Nixon “was the most liberal president in American history, except Gerald Ford.”

Shortly afterward, Senator Jesse Helms gave a speech to the American Conservative Union noting that only 38 percent of eligible voters had turned out for the congressional elections following Nixon’s resignation. He argued that a plan targeting that nonvoting 62 percent—the “conservative majority,” he called it—could set the political world on its ear. Young Phillips boldly approached Helms with just such a plan: a stealth grassroots organization with cells in all 435 congressional districts, to surface only once its infrastructure was in place, with the goal of taking over one or both of the political parties. (“It doesn’t matter which party succeeds. Principles matter.”) Helms conferred his blessing—then Phillips approached a political friend to help put the plan into action. That friend was Richard Viguerie. And once Phillips secured his participation, they were well on their way.

Viguerie’s story would be told and retold many times in the decades to come, like right-wing holy writ. It began in 1961, when the twenty-eight-year-old was hired as a fundraiser by the right’s P. T. Barnum, Marvin Liebman, the middle-age man who ran Young Americans for Freedom. The first thing Liebman told him was that YAF actually had two thousand paid members, but that he should always claim there were twenty-five thousand. That was another secret to the New Right’s success: an eagerness to accept that their end—the survival of Western civilization—most decidedly justified nearly any means.

* Paul Weyrich knew how to organize. He always claimed his awakening came while sitting in on a meeting of liberal activists trying to pass a federal open housing bill—another of those legends that became right-wing holy writ. A think tank officer was commissioned to write a research report. A White House staffer was instructed to keep the president on task. Senate aides were dispatched to ride herd on Capitol Hill. Civil rights leaders agreed to flush protesters into the streets. This was how liberalism had stolen Americans’ conservative birthright, Weyrich reflected. “I saw how easily it could be done with planning and determination, and I decided to try it myself.”

* In Michigan, a University of Chicago economist and former advisor to Barry Goldwater’s presidential campaign was neck deep in a campaign he believed was more important than electing Gerald Ford. “Proposition C” was an initiative modeled on a failed campaign Governor Reagan had sponsored in California in 1973 to cap taxes and limit state spending. On October 13, the professor was out electioneering for it when a long-distance phone call came from Stockholm announcing that he had won the Nobel Prize in Economics. His name was Milton Friedman.

Stockholm’s choice signified an intellectual earthquake. Friedman was perhaps the most right-wing economist working at a top American university. His popular 1962 book Capitalism and Freedom argued, with breathtaking confidence, radical notions like that government should not regulate pharmaceuticals (unsafe drugs would be weeded out via the marketplace) and corporations must not make charitable contributions (their only legitimate function was making profit for shareholders). The next year, Friedman coauthored his academic magnum opus, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, which argued that government did not cure financial panics and depressions but caused them. Such ideas were so out of the mainstream that one economist compared him to a fencer attacking a battleship with a foil.

But “the bald little professor with the elfin face and the tart tongue,” as a journalist described him, was also a relentless popularizer of those radical ideas. He had been writing a biweekly column in Newsweek magazine since 1966. For even longer, he spoke before just about any student audience that invited him—except at mandatory chapel services; those, he said, violated his ideal of liberty. His latest book, There’s No Such Thing as a Free Lunch, was neatly summarized by Ronald Reagan in a radio commentary congratulating Friedman for his prize: “Business does not and cannot pay taxes. Only people pay taxes… the money they forward to internal revenue comes from the corporations’ employees, customers, and stockholders. Politicians who advocate higher business taxes are really hiding the fact that they intend to raise the tax on all of us, as employees, consumers, and stockholders.”

In Chicago, Friedman’s wife and economist collaborator, Rose, told one inquiring reporter after another that since her husband considered Proposition C more important, he wouldn’t be returning home for a press conference. She spoke on his behalf: “Milton is a conservative economist and the Swedish are quite left.… Your political leanings are as important for the prize as your achievement. Giving Milton the prize now is finally saying, ‘He really isn’t as bad as we thought he was.’ ”

As it happened, “the Swedes” chose not one but two American conservatives for Nobel Prizes that year. The other was Saul Bellow, whose novels cut the clichés of bien-pensant liberalism to ribbons, frequently in the voice of characters much like their creator—brooding, hyper-intellectual Jews who saw civilization collapsing around them as the unintended consequence of liberals’ do-gooding schemes. He had also been a youthful Marxist. That made Bellow the pluperfect specimen of what had become known as “neoconservatism.” A neoconservative, as their ex-Trotskyist godfather the Wall Street Journal columnist Irving Kristol defined it, was a “liberal mugged by reality.” That perfectly described the protagonist of Bellow’s 1970 masterpiece Mr. Sammler’s Planet. “Mr. Sammler,” Bellow wrote, “was testy with White Protestant America for not keeping better order. Cowardly surrender. Not a strong ruling class. Eager in a secret humiliating way, to come down and mingle with all the minority mobs, and scream against themselves.”

* Daniel Patrick Moynihan. The merry Harvard policy intellectual had beaten three of New York’s most prominent liberals for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate. The former Johnson and Nixon administration official was best known as the author of a 1965 Labor Department report attributing most of black America’s woes not to racism but to its allegedly aberrant family structure. In Nixon’s White House he recommended “benign neglect” of the nation’s African Americans. Under Gerald Ford, as America’s representative to the United Nations, he became known for his hawkish exhortations against the Soviet Union and the upstart Third World. And now he would be seated as the Senate’s first neoconservative.

* For years Gerald Ford’s secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld had argued that the arms agreements his rival Henry Kissinger had negotiated with the Soviet Union were not worth the paper on which they were printed: the Soviets simply built any weapons they pleased. Rumsfeld’s neoconservative deputy Paul Wolfowitz had convinced him that the CIA’s annual intelligence estimate of the Soviet’s capabilities was biased toward détente. So Rumsfeld lobbied the president to generate a competing assessment of the Soviet threat.

CIA director William Colby was not amused by the bureaucratic insult. But in the fall of 1975, Rumsfeld engineered a bureaucratic coup that removed him. The following spring, at the height of the primaries against Reagan, President Ford took Rumsfeld’s advice, authorizing a panel of sixteen “outside experts” to review the highly classified data by which the annual National Intelligence Estimate was produced, to write a counter-estimate of its own. The group became known as “Team B.” (Team A was the CIA itself.) Team B concluded just what Rumsfeld wished it to: first, that the Soviet Union could wipe out virtually America’s entire nuclear capability in a first strike if it wanted to; and second, that the USSR did want to.

Team B included Wolfowitz, a neoconservative Harvard professor of Russian history named Richard Pipes, and Paul Nitze, a hard-line defense intellectual who had served five presidents. Nitze had authored a similar report in 1957 whose leaked conclusions made their way into the 1960 presidential campaign when John F. Kennedy accused the Eisenhower administration of allowing a catastrophic “missile gap” with the Soviet Union. The report was based on inaccurate Air Force intelligence claiming the Soviet Union possessed as many as a thousand intercontinental ballistic missiles when in fact they only had four, a reality that proved that the Soviets were not in fact pursuing global dominations. The hard-liners remained unchastened by their mistake—as they would be again and again following many more bias-driven errors.

Team B focused on a class of evidence on Soviet intentions the CIA considered inherently unreliable: the writings of Soviet military leaders, like the officer who argued in a 1963 book that a nuclear war could be fought and won by the Soviet Union. They took this as open-and-shut evidence of official Kremlin policy, no matter that, during this period, Soviets had never even tried to build enough ICBMs to attempt it.

Team B also believed, based on speculative deductions, that the Soviets were increasing their commitment to civil defense. They thus concluded that the Soviets did not believe in the stabilizing doctrine upon which America’s nuclear system was built: “mutually assured destruction,” which held that because each understood that the other could obliterate them many times over, and that thus nobody could truly “win,” the best way to prevent war was to negotiate a parity of firepower. Instead, Team B argued, the Russians were preparing to ride out a nuclear holocaust they intended to start.

Their analysis was concluded in time for Jimmy Carter’s election. Then they leaked it to the press—in advance of the CIA’s official National Intelligence Estimate, which would now look conspicuously weak. Well-placed, well-timed leaks were the most powerful weapon in the neoconservatives’ arsenal. This one exploded with a political force in the megatons. In a season of supposed right-wing obsolescence, all Washington was atwitter with debates over whether détente hadn’t been a naive, disastrous mistake, and whether America’s weariness with its superpower status, which neoconservatives called “Vietnam Syndrome,” was spurring unilateral disarmament.

“Vietnam Syndrome” was the coinage of neoconservative foreign policy’s most prominent public face, Eugene Rostow, a law professor at Yale who had been an architect of the Vietnam War. In the fall of 1975, he had proposed forming a small bipartisan committee, with a membership so prominent it would be impossible to ignore, to warn the public that the Soviet peril was more dangerous than ever. Christened the Committee on the Present Danger, a tribute to a similar group formed in 1950 with that moniker, the committee was chartered in March of 1976; then, with the sedulousness of Dwight D. Eisenhower planning D-Day, Nitze took CPD underground, biding his time for a propitious moment to strike.

Nitze won a pre-inaugural meeting with the president-elect, lecturing him via a battery of charts and graphs about Team B’s conclusions. Carter was unmoved. So the plotters publicly announced their new committee at an impassioned press conference. Cochairman Lane Kirkland of the AFL-CIO, said, “Our country is in a period of danger, and the danger is increasing. Unless decisive steps are taken to alert the nation, and to change the course of its policy, our economic and military capability will become inadequate to assure security.” Others said the Soviet Union’s “unparalleled military buildup” was “reminiscent of Nazi Germany’s rearmament in the 1930s,” and that Russia, which “does not subscribe to American notions of nuclear sufficiency and mutually assured destruction,” was building forces “designed to enable the USSR to fight, survive, and win a nuclear war.” Such language soon dominated security discussions in Washington.

“Carter to Inherit Intense Dispute on Soviet Intentions,” the Washington Post front page trumpeted a little more than a fortnight before the inauguration, next to a picture of the incoming president looking meek in his plaid flannel shirt. A mainstream arms control expert protested that “there is a major effort underway to recreate the atmosphere of the ‘missile gap’ days of 1960.” A liberal Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee called it “at least 75 percent bull.” Senator Charles Percy, however, a bellwether centrist, said he was convinced: the Soviets were “seeking superiority.”

The neocons’ intention had been to establish a climate of opinion on the ground that would be very hard to reverse once a new president’s team was in place. It was working. Jimmy Carter wasn’t even inaugurated yet and his intention to work toward the elimination of nuclear weapons had already been on the rocks.

* THE WEEK OF JIMMY CARTER’S inauguration, ABC aired an eight-part television miniseries version of Alex Haley’s best-selling slavery epic Roots. Executives had worried that sixteen hours of slavery would turn off viewers, so rather than waste a weekly prime-time spot for two months, they ran it on consecutive nights. It turned out their worries were misplaced. When the next week’s Nielsen ratings were published, the top eight slots were occupied by Roots.

More than half of the American population watched all or part of it. A black professional from Nashville told a reporter that as his family sat before the TV, “We couldn’t talk. We just cried.” A journalist wrote, “This may be the first time millions of whites ever really identified with blacks as human beings.”

There was, however, one public figure who disagreed. He would soon be the subject of front-page Los Angeles Times feature reporting that he had a “significant head start over anyone else in the drive for the Republican nomination.” “Very frankly,” Ronald Reagan said of Roots, “I thought the bias of all the good people being one color and all the bad people being another was rather destructive.” He also couldn’t imagine staying home eight nights in a row to watch it.

* For his part, Reagan got out and sold. A “New Year’s Resolutions for Republicans” column argued that the GOP had a marvelous chance to attract black voters by providing them the same thing “most white citizens want: a chance at a decent job, a home, a good education for their kids, and streets free of crime”—rather than an accursed fate as “lifetime recipients of a dole.” That was Reagan’s political message on nearly every topic: Republicans just needed to stop apologizing for what they knew to be true—which was conservatism. Five days before Carter’s inauguration, he gave his first speech of 1977 to the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, an organization formed in 1953 to evangelize conservatism to college students. The timing coincided with the annual Washington meeting of the Republican National Committee. His words were a flare sent out to party leaders about what a Reagan-led GOP would look like.

The text had been drafted by former Nixon speechwriter William Gavin, who called himself a “street corner conservative”—a conception deeply influenced by the Catholic social philosopher Michael Novak, a passionate defender of Eastern European “white ethnics” against what both Novak and Gavin saw as the assaults to their traditional values from the nation’s liberal elites. Gavin had explained how he intended to braid this perspective into Reagan’s rhetoric in a memo to Michael Deaver: the speech would argue “conservatism is a majority belief, not a cult”; that Republicans “have to act and talk like a majority or we will lose support on the left and the right; blue collar and ethnic issues are very important”; that Republican rhetoric too often “sounds like a tape of a Rotarian banquet”; and that “ ‘family’ is a key concept.” From the podium before the ISI, that came out sounding like this: “I refuse to believe the Good Lord divided this world into Republicans, who defend basic values, and Democrats, who win elections.… The new GOP should have room for the man and woman in the factories, for the cop on the beat, and the millions of Americans who have never thought of joining our party before.”

The argument closely resembled what George Wallace said on the presidential campaign trail in 1968 and ’72. And, also, the strategizing of Chuck Colson in Richard Nixon’s White House to craft a “new majority” by recruiting “hard hat” union members into the Republican Party. It recalled, too, the sentiments of Jesse Helms, in that 1975 speech arguing that the nonvoting 62 percent of the electorate who did not vote could become the foundation for a “conservative majority.” And also the argument of a book that same year by National Review publisher William Rusher called The Making of the New Majority Party. In Reagan’s words, the secret to reaching voters “usually associated with the blue-collar, ethnic, and religious groups, who are traditionally associated with the Democratic Party” was via “the so-called social issues—law and order, abortion, busing, quota systems.” A Republicanism that could comfortably wear a blue collar, such thinking went, could put paid to the Democrats for good. Though for it to work, Reagan insisted, the party would have to erase the “country club big business image that, for reasons both fair and unfair, it is burdened with today.” That he was able to convincingly argue that in the sumptuous ballroom of the Mayflower Hotel, only days before one of his wife’s regular appearances in the Los Angeles Times society column (in one she wore “Adolfo’s gray lace dress with the romantic high collar”), was a testament to his rhetorical skill.

* IT DIDN’T EXACTLY HELP THAT the pro-ERA side resembled one of the lumbering regular armies that were flattened by T. E. Lawrence’s guerrillas during World War I: the opposition kept blindsiding them. In fact, it had taken two such blindsiding defeats, in ERA endorsement referenda on the 1975 general election ballots in liberal New York and New Jersey, before a formal organization coordinating the ratification fight was even pulled together.

It was called ERAmerica, and it was a hyper-bureaucratic blunderbuss, a top-down federation of Washington- and New York-based nonprofits for whom the ERA was far down their list of organizational priorities—a structure that bogged down its decision-making to a standstill. It had Republican and Democrats cochairs. Liz Carpenter was an executive at the establishment public relations firm Hill & Knowlton and a former LBJ White House aide. The other cochair was former Michigan Republican Party chairman and Ford presidential campaign official Elly Peterson, known as the “mother of the moderate Republicans.” They were, in other words, consummate Washington insiders—with few contacts in the state capitols where the fight was actually taking place. That couldn’t be more different from Schlafly’s everywhere-and-nowhere resistance. STOP ERA had been incorporated with the minimum bureaucracy required by law, with a single charismatic leader in control. Less than a year after it began, a consultant recommended ERAmerica be shut down as a “dismal failure.”

One reason for their failure was the difficulty of articulating what the ERA would do. On the one hand, many legal experts predicted that the answer was: not much—which made it hard to insist it was a pressing necessity. On the other, no one could actually say for certain; that, ultimately, would be up to the federal judges charged with interpreting it. This provided the opening for Schlafly’s side to deploy another classic tactic of guerrilla warfare: seeding uncertainty. National opinion polls showed the ERA to be very popular in the abstract—part of what lulled the establishment into such disastrous complacency. But then, in state after state, when ratification was called up for legislative consideration, Schlafly’s forces would swoop in, armed with horror stories about what its passage would entail. And these were harrowingly specific.

They said judges would order women drafted into combat. (Probably not, but early on advocates made the disastrous decision not to fight this canard, reasoning that feminists should embrace the duties of full citizenship as well as the benefits.) They said it would place housewives’ Social Security benefits at risk. (More likely the opposite: married women did not directly earn Social Security from the government, and if a woman left her husband, she received none of his benefits. The ERA could conceivably fix this.) Perhaps, according to the John Birch Society, the “Marxist pressures and abuses inherent in the ERA” would lead to “co-sexual penal institutions” and “the legalization of rape.” Or, an an Eagle Forum pamphlet distributed in the South suggested, “the sexes fully integrated like the races”—including ending separate men’s and women’s restrooms. That was almost certainly not so—but even just the suggestion of defilement of that most private of social spaces proved an exceptionally powerful weapon.

And, just maybe, ERA would even let men marry men and women marry women—a strange notion first raised in the 1972 Senate hearing by Senator Sam Ervin, who so despised the ERA that he lent Phyllis Schlafly his senatorial franking privileges. Schlafly amplified that concern with cheerful aplomb. “Why do homosexuals and lesbians support ERA?” one of her pamphlets asked, answering, “Because it will probably put their entire ‘gay rights’ agenda into the U.S. Constitution.” Anti-ERA debaters loved to repeat the true story about how a liberal-minded county clerk in Colorado issued a marriage license to two men. A cowboy approached the same clerk to demand she let him marry his horse. (Thinking fast, she thought of an excuse to deny the license: Dolly was eight years old, and thus underage.)

Gay marriage seemed a slippery slope that, once breached, threatened the bounds of God’s order itself. So did the ERA itself. It felt threatening to its opponents at the very core of their being. Ruth Murray Brown, the sociologist, asked Texas anti-ERA activists what their primary reason was for joining the movement. The most common answer, cited by 56 percent, was that the ERA was “against God’s plan for the family.” The second most common answer was that “it would encourage an un-biblical relationship between men and women.” And for evangelicals, to call something un-biblical, or against God’s plan, was no minor thing. It was not a matter of live and let live—you handle your family in your way, I’ll handle my family in mine. The central evangelical tenet—the reason they evangelized—was the “Great Commission” in Matthew 28: “Therefore go and make disciples of all the nations.” Fighting that which was “unbiblical” was more, even, than a matter of life and death. It was a matter of eternal life and death. Given that, it was hard for a Christian woman to complain about the burden of attending a couple of meetings a week, or making a few more phone calls, or baking a loaf of bread for a wavering state representative.

Brown made an even more crucial finding. This one came from North Carolina, where the ERA had just been cut down at the last minute in the state senate by a mere two votes: her survey of Schlafly’s activists there discovered that half had never before participated in politics in their lives. In politics, it is the rarest of gifts to be able to rouse an entire new population to throw themselves passionately into activism—especially so in a time of generalized political apathy.

Just like Howard Phillips—a crucial Schlafly ally—liked to say: We organize discontent. Tapping an existential discontent like this was the kind of development with the potential to birth revolutions. Florida’s legislature was due to schedule a crucial ERA vote sometime in April; Phillips vowed to post 150,000 pieces of direct mail to rally the troops. Ronald Reagan joined the fight with one of his radio commentaries, merging Schlafly’s favorite argument with his own: “It’s just vague enough that it will almost certainly end up in the courts. The judges will then become legislators, designing its impact by their ruling from the bench. Bureaucrats would do the rest. Isn’t it time we had a little less distortion of our federal system from the courts and the bureaucrats, rather than inviting more?”

* In the 1950s, the federal government devoted more resources to purging gay men and lesbians than it did Communists. The state government in Tallahassee was especially proactive: in 1964, a legislative committee formerly infamous for hounding civil rights activists released the report Homosexuality and Citizenship in Florida, known as the “Purple Pamphlet” for its lurid violet cover featuring two men locked in passionate embrace, which concluded that “a great many homosexuals have an insatiable appetite for sexual activities and find special gratification in the recruitment to their ranks of youth.… If we don’t act soon we will wake up some morning and find they are too big to fight.” Handsome young men at Florida State University were thus paid $10 for the name of each homosexual who approached them, so that individual could be expeditiously expelled. Quite simply, before the 1970s, homosexuals had no rights which heterosexuals were bound to respect.

Having a sex life for gay men meant furtive encounters in restrooms or public parks, risking vigilante attack or arrest, or frequenting seedy bars run by the mafia that were often raided by police. Either way, arrest could mean losing your job or family—or commitment to a psychiatric ward, where you might find yourself strapped down and jolted with electricity as erotic images flashed on a screen. After a raid of a New York bar called the Snake Pit, a young man terrified of such exposure jumped from a window of the police station. He impaled himself on a fourteen-inch iron-spiked fence two stories below.

* A former fundamentalist minister named Troy Perry opened gay churches in nine states. But in January of 1973, in Los Angeles, his first dedicated building burned down. So, that June, did the gay bar where the New Orleans branch of his Metropolitan Community Church met, killing thirty-two. Ashamed families refused to claim the bodies; churches refused to hold memorial services. Syndicated advice columnist Ann Landers answered a letter-writer agonizing over her gay brother’s suicide by quoting a psychiatrist: “over and over again it is found that a homosexual male has had an intense relationship with the mother and a deficient relationship with the father.” The advice columnist concluded, “Perhaps just knowing these facts will help some parents to rear their children to be sexually normal.”

* IN MIAMI, A GAY COMMUNITY that included many respected businessmen organized themselves as a local political interest group: they mailed questionnaires to municipal candidates in the 1976 election, then provided the forty-nine whose answers they liked best with donations and volunteers. Forty-four won. One, a Dade County commissioner (who happened to be the wife of Anita Bryant’s agent), introduced a bill outlawing discrimination against gays in employment, housing, and public accommodations. Which was exactly how America’s pluralist democracy was supposed to work.

In December, the nine-member county commission voted unanimously to schedule a public hearing on gay rights for January 18—typically just a formality prior to a bill becoming law. But this hearing proved cantankerous. Local churches chartered buses full of congregants bearing signs reading things like “GOD SAYS NO, WHO ARE YOU TO SAY DIFFERENT?” and “PROTECT OUR CHILDREN, DON’T LEGISLATE IMMORALITY FOR DADE COUNTY.” Among their number was a surprise witness.

Anita Bryant had been Miss Oklahoma 1959, and a runner-up for Miss America. She recorded a string of hit pop songs and became a regular at USO shows and Bob Hope’s annual Christmas specials from Vietnam. In 1968 she belted out the National Anthem at the Republicans’ convention in Miami and her trademark rendition of “The Battle Hymn of the Republic” at the Democrats’ in Chicago. She also sang it at Lyndon Johnson’s funeral in 1973. (Bryant was one of his favorite singers.) In the Bicentennial year she was so in demand she earned $700,000, even though she never performed in venues where alcohol was served. She became most famous for the commercials she starred in for the Florida Citrus Commission. They began with a chirpy “Hi! I’m Anita Bryant!” and closed with the tagline, “Breakfast without orange juice is like a day without sunshine.” But “the best role I could possibly play,” she insisted in her 1972 bestseller Bless This House, “is Anita Green, Bob’s wife and our children’s mother… People keep asking me what I think of women’s lib. I tell them I was liberated when I received Christ as my personal Savior. That’s the only liberation I would ever seek.”

Now she testified to throaty cries of Amen!: “As an entertainer I have worked with homosexuals all my life, and my attitude has been live and let live. But now I believe it’s time to recognize the rights of the overwhelming number of Dade County constituents.” The bill passed 5–3 nonetheless. Miami was liberal. Miami was tolerant. Miami, the gay community pointed out, was also especially receptive to a message of human rights because it was a haven for Jewish retirees, a fifth of the Miami electorate, many of them refugees from Nazi Germany.

And now Miami was the first city in the South to enshrine gay rights in the books of law.

Bryant was quoted the next morning: “We are not going to take this sitting down. The ordinance condones immorality and discriminates against my children’s rights to grow up in a healthy, decent community.” But what could they do? The law was the law. To the ordinance’s proud supporters, Bryant’s argument sounded self-evidently absurd: how could granting homosexuals the right not to be fired or evicted or kicked off a seat at a lunch counter constitute “discrimination”?

A Catholic attorney named Robert Brake disagreed. He had decided, even before the ordinance had passed, that it would force his children’s parochial schools to hire homosexual teachers. County law, he learned, authorized the scheduling of elections to repeal ordinances if ten thousand petition signatures were collected. After the Dade County Metropolitan Commission meeting, he walked up to the singer and asked if she would lead that crusade. Bryant responded according to a Christian wife’s duty as she understood it: she asked her husband, Bob Green, and her pastor, William Chapman, for permission. This they immediately tendered. Chapman, for his part, had already avowed that he would burn his children’s schools to the ground before he let homosexuals teach there.

The founding meeting of Save Our Children, Inc., was held in Bob Green and Anita Bryant’s thirty-three-room oceanfront mansion, Villa Verde, complete with fountains, waterfall, a tropical garden, and a docking slip for the family yacht, the Sea Sharp—and a private altar. Attendees included leaders of Miami’s Catholic, Baptist, Spanish Presbyterian, Orthodox Jewish, and Greek Orthodox communities, and, as their strategist, an advertising executive named Mike Thompson, who had run for lieutenant governor in 1974 on an anti-busing platform and was now a Republican national committeeman and chairman of the Florida Conservative Union. They got to work on a statement announcing their petition drive. Thompson interrupted their faltering attempt and asked if he could take a crack at it alone. He withdrew, returned, then handed the text to Anita Bryant. The pitchwoman for Coca-Cola, Kraft Foods, Holiday Inn, Tupperware—and Florida orange juice—delivered it with such aplomb that Thompson threw his arms around her. She gave him a smack on the cheek in return. He replied, “You kiss real good for a girl!”

Bryant froze. Thompson winked. A merry laugh was enjoyed by all. They were ready for war…

Bryant appeared before the press on January 24 underneath a banner reading “SAVE OUR CHILDREN FROM HOMOSEXUALITY” and surrounded by clerics: “The homosexual recruiters of Dade County already have begun their campaign! Homosexual acts are not only illegal, they are immoral. And through the power of the ballot box, I believe the parents and the straight-thinking normal majority will soundly reject the attempt to legitimize homosexuals and their recruitment plans for our children. We shall not let the nation down.”

Less than four weeks later, her army had those 10,000 signatures, with 53,304 to spare.

Bryant received a telegram from a producer informing her a television pilot they were to work on was now canceled owing to “the extensive national publicity arising from the controversial political activities you have been engaged in Dade County.” Developments like this rendered her opponents confident they were gathering the momentum they needed to win. What they did not understand was that this announcement helped energize Bryant’s campaign by orders of magnitude. Evangelical culture is built upon narratives of martyrdom. Those Miamians organizing to preserve the ordinance called their organization the Coalition for the Humanistic Rights of Gays. That was naive, too. For years, evangelical leaders had been crusading against what they insisted was an actual, active conspiracy of “secular humanists,” abetted by the federal government, to dethrone God from American life. So by using the word humanistic in their name, Bryant’s adversaries placed themselves in the path of an evangelical buzz saw.

Bryant made a campaign trip to Virginia, raising $25,000 in donations via appearances on Pat Robertson’s 700 Club and Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker’s PTL Club. On March 15, Dade County commissioners formally approved the ordinance. In doing so, they bucked Florida’s popular Democratic governor, Reuben Askew—“Reuben the Good,” as he was known, for opposing the use of tobacco and alcohol and embracing idealistic causes like the Equal Rights Amendment. At first, he had supported the ordinance. Then he changed his mind—because, he said, he would not want a “known homosexual teaching my children”—and also signed laws banning gay marriage, gay adoption, and men trying on women’s clothing in retail stores.

* Many more were recruited to the cause beginning in the spring of that year by an unlikely activist: a theologian from Germantown, Pennsylvania, named Francis Schaeffer.

Schaeffer now lived with his family in a chalet in Switzerland that he had purchased in 1954 and turned it into a retreat center called L’Abri—“the refuge.” Among those who found refuge there were rock musicians and hippies. Nearly uniquely among evangelical leaders, Schaeffer encouraged engagement with worldly art and culture. He was the evangelicals’ missionary to the intellectuals—who treated him as just one more hip 1960s spiritual seer. Rank-and-file evangelicals venerated Dr. Schaeffer for his role in sanding away their community’s anti-intellectual reputation. In 1972 the Christian filmmaker Billy Zeoli convinced him that with his reputation, eloquence—and dramatically long silver hair and puff of white beard—he would make a marvelous host for a Christian response to Sir Kenneth Clark’s hit thirteen-part BBC and PBS series Civilization. That series had told the story of Western culture as an ascent from the superstition-soaked Dark Ages to the Enlightenment and beyond—a triumph of man’s reason—a quintessentially “secular humanist” narrative: it sacrilegiously elevated humankind above God.

Schaeffer and Zeoli’s response, How Should We Then Live? The Rise and Decline of Western Thought and Culture, inverted that story. The first eight episodes unfolded a leisurely Christ-inflected tour of European art, from Michelangelo’s David (though they had to locate footage obscuring the genitals) to its degradation into abstract art and existentialist fiction that dethroned God, robbed humans of their dignity, and threatened liberty itself. “It was Christianity—the Reformation in Western Europe—which brought the forms of freedom that we have,” Schaeffer said, his loose-fitting open-necked shirt flapping welcomingly in the breeze. It was the grinding advance of secular humanism, exemplified by Hitler, Stalin, and Mao, that portended the real dark age: not back in the Middle Ages, but now.

Then, episode nine took a striking turn.

It was the idea of Dr. Schaeffer’s son Frankie, the film’s director. Returning to Switzerland after a tour plying conservative billionaires like Bunker Hunt and Richard DeVos for donations, he argued that their series should depict legalization of abortion as the culmination of the diabolical forces they meant to explain. Schaeffer père was reluctant. He despised abortion, but considered it a Catholic issue—and a political issue. And preachers had no business in politics.

His son snapped back: “That’s what you always say about the Lutherans in Germany! You say they’re responsible for the Holocaust because they wouldn’t speak up, and now you’re doing the same thing.” He won the argument.

The episode began with a screech of tuneless contemporary classical music, a Van Gogh self-portrait, an Ingmar Bergman film poster, covers of books by Sartre and Camus. Dr. Schaeffer explained how by the 1960s people were barraged by these artifacts’ underlying message: “no fixed values whatsoever.” They were promised in their place twin salves of personal freedom and affluence—“horrible, absolutely horrible values.” Young people, searching for something deeper, tried drugs and political utopias, which failed: “They had tried to escape their parents’ poor values and went around in a circle and ended up one inch lower.” The screen filled with horrors—Woodstock, bombings, rioting in the streets, screaming hordes—as Shaeffer rushed via a headlong set of syllogisms to what he took to be the culminating horror: society’s “Christian consensus” was abandoned, until “the Constitution of the United States can be made to say anything on the basis of sociological, variable law.”

He had been delivering the lecture at a desk. The next shot found him pacing in front of the United States Supreme Court.

“I’d like to use an illustration.… Consider the human fetus—the unborn baby. In January of 1973, the United States Supreme Court passed the abortion law.”

Next came gorgeous diaphanous images of fetuses that looked ready to leap forth fully formed from the womb. Roe v. Wade was “arbitrary legally and mentally”—yet American elites accepted that because “it was considered sociologically helpful.… And nobody knows where it will end.”

He perched on a tree stump.

“The unborn child is considered not to be a person”—just like black slaves used to be. “The question has to be asked: in an age with no fixed values, why could not the aged, the incurably ill, the insane, and other classes of persons arbitrarily be declared to be non-persons on the basis of arbitrary law, if the court decided it was socially helpful?”

A final episode hammered home the conclusion: with legal abortion having institutionalized the heresy that “people are seen as no different from machines,” society would descend into totalitarianism. Unless viewers did something about it.

The series was advertised as a “documentary spectacular two and a half years in the making.” It debuted at Chicago’s five-thousand-seat Arie Crown Theater. The format was a daylong seminar, with each half-hour episode interspersed with discussion sessions featuring Dr. Schaeffer and his wife, Edith. It toured fourteen more cities by April, including to audiences of 3,500 in Seattle, 3,800 in Atlanta, and 6,000 in Dallas, where Cowboys quarterback Roger Staubach emceed. Jerry Falwell made the book version required reading for all entering freshmen at his Liberty Baptist College.

* At the annual Gridiron dinner, Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, a Republican whom liberals respected, told homophobic jokes. The nation’s most prominent liberal historian, the former Kennedy administration aide Arthur Schlesinger Jr., once wrote in the New York Times, “ ‘Gay’ used to be one of the most agreeable words in the language. Its appropriation by a notably morose group is an act of piracy.” A liberal columnist in the Washington Post, William Raspberry, now wrote that he had sat down to pen an “easy” column about Anita Bryant’s “campaign of bigotry”—then he met her, found many of her arguments persuasive, and concluded that, since homosexuality was an “acquired taste,” parents were perfectly within their rights not to “want their children placed in circumstances in which they might acquire it.” Even the community’s friends were not particularly friendly. “Homosexuals make me feel creepy inside,” wrote another columnist in a piece otherwise excoriating Bryant. “The folly of publicly flaunting bedroom preferences disgusts me.”

* Ronald Reagan had been making similar arguments for years. “Look at the potential for cheating,” he thundered in 1975 when Democrats proposed a system allowing citizens to register by mail. A voter “can be John Doe in Berkeley, and J. F. Doe in the next county, all by saying he intends to live in both places.… Yes, it takes a little work to be a voter; it takes some planning to get to the polls or send an absentee ballot… that’s a small price to pay for freedom.” He took up the same cudgel shortly after Carter’s inauguration when California adopted easier procedures: “Why don’t we try reverse psychology and make it harder to vote?” Now, following Carter’s electoral reform message, Reagan wrote in his column that what this all was really about was boosting votes from “the bloc comprised of those who get a whole lot more from the federal government in various kinds of income distribution than they contribute to it.… Don’t be surprised if an army of election workers—much of it supplied by labor organizations which have managed to exempt themselves from election law restrictions—sweep through metropolitan areas scooping up otherwise apathetic voters and rushing them to the polls to keep the benefit-dispensers in power.”

* Save Our Children, Inc., began running a TV commercial that opened with footage of floats and apple-cheeked majorettes leading marching bands. The announcer: “The Orange Bowl parade. Miami’s gift to the nation. Wholesome entertainment.” Then, a cut to men in leather and chains snapping whips, topless women on motorcycles, and drag queens—“But in San Francisco, when they take to the streets, it’s a parade of homosexuals. Men hugging other men. Cavorting with little boys. Wearing dresses and makeup. The same people who turned San Francisco into a hotbed of homosexuality want to do the same thing in Florida.”

Their direct mail reproduced a recommendation from the Democrats’ gay rights caucus in 1972 calling for the abolition of age of consent laws. Their full-page newspaper ads boomed, “Many parents are confused, and don’t know the real dangers posed by homosexuals—and perceive them as all being gentle, non-aggressive types. The other side of the homosexual coin is a hair-raising pattern of recruitment and outright seduction and molestation, a growing pattern that predictably will intensify if society approves laws granting legitimacy to the sexually perverted.”

* In Washington on March 9, Muslim extremists took more than one hundred hostages at Washington, D.C.’s, B’nai Brith headquarters and a rival mosque, killing a radio reporter and bringing the capital to a three-day, terror-filled standstill. The police commissioner in New York announced that a series of mysterious shootings of women had been committed by the same person with the same .44-caliber pistol; the streets of Queens and Brooklyn were soon deserted at dusk. A PBS documentary called The Fire Next Door reported that arson, the nation’s fastest growing crime, was turning the New York neighborhood of the South Bronx, where there had been thirteen thousand fires in 1975 alone, into a pocked moonscape. A syndicated TV documentary predicting what America’s next energy crisis would look was entitled We Will Freeze in the Dark. Isaac Asimov published a piece in Time imagining America twenty years in the future: “Work, sleep, and eating are the great trinity of 1997, and only the first two are guaranteed.”

* REAGAN’S ENDLESS ROUNDS OF SPEECHES to massive hotel ballrooms filled with revelers enjoying professional conventions, Republican Party fundraisers, or annual galas for service organizations like the Rotary Club or the Elks—what he called the “mashed potato circuit”—were, along with his newspaper column and radio commentaries, now Ronald Reagan’s profession. Deaver and Hannaford received some three hundred invitations for these services a month. For those they accepted, they developed an intricately choreographed routine, its every detail set down in a bulging advance manual.

First came an exclusive reception with the host organization’s VIPs, or those willing to pay top dollar for the privilege. Then Reagan would make his entrance into the banquet hall—usually to the strains “California Here I Come”—harvesting the accompanying ovation, according to two columnists who had watched him do it dozens of times since his 1966 gubernatorial run described it, “with a look of pleased expectancy on his face, as if he could not imagine what delights lie ahead.”

Then (his hosts having been informed the Reagans drank only decaf, and preferred their steaks well done), he would settle down to breakfast, lunch, or dinner. Most politicians skipped the meal, arriving only in time for their speech. Richard Nixon certainly did; he believed it made for a more dramatic entrance. Not Reagan. The meal was when he read the mood of the room, the better to calibrate his performance—even though, for the most part, he said the same words every time.

“He listens to the introductions,” the columnists wrote, “or the Rotary Club business, with that same air of interest bordering on wonder. You would never know he has heard it all a thousand times in a thousand dining rooms.” Finally, upon his introduction, he would stride dramatically via “a safe, uncluttered passageway” (per the advance manual) to a podium (“sturdy and if too short blocked up with bricks or 2X4s,” free from “ashtrays, gavels, etc.”) set to his six-foot-one height. He would plant himself at a mark taped down to ensure advantageous camera angles. He would pop out his right contact lens so he could simultaneously read the text in front of him with one eye and read the reaction at the first row of tables—never more than eight feet away, so he would have faces to look directly into, to enhance the aura of sincerity—with the other. Lighting was carefully specified; once, but never again, Michael Deaver, who almost always traveled with him to such events, dimmed the houselights before he spoke. Reagan snapped at him: “Mike, don’t ever let them turn down the house lights again. It causes me to lose my eye contact.” On important occasions, his wife Nancy accompanied him—and “as she watches her husband give the speech she has heard countless times before,” a reporter marveled, “her look of rapt, wide-eyed adoration never falters.”

The same jokes, set down on the same stack of four-by-six index cards he’d been compiling since the 1960s, some of them yellowed with age. (A doctor had pronounced Reagan “sound as a dollar.” He fainted straightaway. The reason the Little Old Lady Lived in a Shoe was because property taxes were so high…

The same bromides about the government’s tragically “hostile, adversarial relationship” with business, about how “profit, property rights, and freedom are inseparable, and you can’t have the third without the other two”

The same horror stories. Did they know that “164 different federal agencies” regulated hospitals, adding $35 a day to the typical bill? That there were 151 taxes now in the price of a loaf of bread, more than half the cost of a loaf of bread” (though sometimes there were 131).

Then, finally, the same, glorious soaring perorations about America’s ineluctable rendezvous with destiny as God’s shining city on a hill, as the last best hope of man on earth—and then the same ecstatic, electric ovation, as if their Rotary club, Republican organization, or trade group had been touched by the hand of God.

There might be a question and answer period with the audience; attendees scribbled questions on index cards to be posed by the master of ceremony. (Once—again, only once—Deaver tried to show the boss the cards in advance. Reagan frowned and threw them in the garbage: “Mike, you can’t hit a home run on a softball.”) And, usually, beforehand or afterward, a fifteen-to-twenty minute “press availability”—for which the preparations were also rigorously prescribed: the room cooled to fifty-five degrees an hour prior to start time to counteract the TV lights’ heat; backdrop light blue or beige (“ideal for TV cameras”), free from “fancy decorations that distract from the speaker”; a “reliable volunteer” posted outside with orders to admit “bona fide press,” banning “well-wishers and friends” who might cause undue distraction.

It was Reagan’s press availability in Atlantic City that caused the trouble.

A reporter asked his opinion on a subject on every political observer’s mind: British talk show host David Frost’s televised interviews with Richard Nixon. The first one had aired three weeks earlier, on May 4; that afternoon, Reagan had told an audience at the Hoover Institution that he would be “glued to the TV” (and also that while Reagan believed Nixon “was certainly guilty of political impropriety,” he was not a crook, and “I don’t think we’ve had a full report on Watergate”). Then forty-five million people, a record for a political interview, watched, riveted, as Nixon squirmed, sweated—then finally offered something like his first ever apology for Watergate: “I let down my friends, I let down my country, I let down our system of government.” During the second interview, a week later, Frost elicited shocking jabs from Nixon at Henry Kissinger, whom the former president characterized as a pathologically jealous crybaby.

The third had been broadcast the previous night. Nixon complained that the antiwar movement created political divisions that hobbled his efforts to end the Vietnam War. Frost pointed out that Nixon had deliberately exacerbated those divisions for his own advantage, vilifying those in the antiwar movement as enemies of the United States. The former president, annoyed, replied that he had no choice: “Without having enough support at home, the enemy, in my opinion, would never have negotiated in Paris.”

Frost’s off-camera voice then introduced some context: that one of the ways Nixon sought to weaken the antiwar movement was by approving staffer Tom Charles Huston’s plan to spy on and sabotage it, using tactics that they knew to be illegal.

He addressed Nixon directly:

“So, what in a sense, you’re saying is that there are certain situations, and the Huston Plan or that part of it was one of them, where the president can decide that it’s in the best interests of the nation or something, and do something illegal?”

Nixon: “Well, when the president does it that means that it is not illegal.”

In Atlantic City, Reagan was asked about that astonishing claim. He replied that he could “understand” it: “When he was made commander-in-chief he was responsible for the national security.” He then launched into an elaborate story, his go-to whenever he was called upon to defend the necessity of extraordinary measures in the interest of public safety. Radicals had threatened to kidnap his wife and send him her head if he would not release certain prisoners from jail. His criminal intelligence division had learned of the plot through underhanded means, and “the purpose of law and order, and civil rights and human rights, was served by someone being able to find that intelligence.” In precisely the same way, “When the commander in chief of a nation finds it necessary to order employees of the government or agencies from the government to do things that would technically break the law, he has to be able to declare it legal for them to do that.”

The comment rendered Reagan a laughingstock: “Has the governor taken leave of his senses?” one newspaper editorial cackled. “What if some administration were to declare Reagan illegal?” Reagan’s former criminal intelligence chief in Sacramento, reached for comment, indignantly said his officers never had nor would break laws.

Reagan had certainly placed himself out on a political limb where public opinion was concerned. Of those who watched the Frost interviews, 72 percent responded that Nixon was a criminal, for which there could be no place in public life. But Reagan was hardly alone. More and more conservatives, in fact, were making similar arguments themselves, with the same sort of unapologetic brazenness with which Richard Viguerie tested campaign finance laws.

A Nixon speechwriter who was now a widely syndicated columnist, Patrick J. Buchanan, took the occasion of the Frost interviews to argue that “Watergate was the climactic battle in a political civil war that raged in this country for ten years”—in which “the Left, defeated and humiliated in November of 1972,” cooked up a fake scandal for the simple reason that otherwise their mortal enemy “would enter the history books as a political genius who had read the nation better than they, who had ended honorably a war they had started, declared unwinnable, and from which they had deserted to places like Canada, Stockholm, Harvard, and the Ford Foundation.” A book slated for June publication by the conservative journalist Victor Lasky, It Didn’t Start with Watergate, claimed that Democrats going back to FDR were as lawless or even more so than Richard Nixon; another former Nixon speechwriter, William Safire, now a New York Times columnist, had argued that Watergate was “a secondary McCarthy Era, in which civil liberties were suspended in the name of civil liberty, and many of those who pointed the fingers of guilt were men with guilty hands.”

Viva Nixon. To some on the right, he was beginning to sound like a role model.

* THEN CAME GRIST FOR AN argument that in some respects Jimmy Carter was just as bad. Just as his second hundred days were beginning, the ten-thousand-word “Initial Working Paper on Political Strategy” that Pat Caddell had presented him the month before the inauguration was leaked to the press and made the Man from Plains seem as shifty as Tricky Dick himself.

“Essentially,” Caddell had written, “it is my thesis that governing with public approval requires a continuing political campaign.… Too many good people have been defeated because they tried to substitute substance for style.” He then suggested a barrage of symbolic gestures—fireside chats, radio call-in shows, town meetings—that had once seemed some refreshing tokens of Carter’s winsome genuineness, but were now revealed as cynical manipulations by hired guns. Carter was grilled mercilessly on the document in his press conference the next day. He lamely responded that, well, the idea of walking down Pennsylvania Avenue on Inauguration Day had been his and his alone.

* The New York Times moved Reagan further toward the front page than at any time since the 1976 convention. The Chicago Tribune sent a correspondent, who published a long profile. (It was not entirely flattering: “Camera lights flash and he lifts the chin a little higher to minimize the sagging flesh.” He evaded questions about his presidential plans with a “dazzling, movie star smile.” When “a reporter demanded, ‘Governor, aren’t you really a has-been?’ Reagan looked stunned. His face dropped and he stared incredulously at the questioner. At last, he stammered, ‘I don’t feel like one.’ ”)

* That weekend, he spoke in Memphis before the Young Republicans convention—the same one that elected Roger Stone the group’s president, after an extraordinary campaign that vindicated every one of the Republican establishment’s fears. Stone’s campaign manager, a twenty-eight-year-old named Paul Manafort, had brought along an organization that more closely resembled those at national party conventions: custom-installed telephone lines; thick “whip books” with intelligence on each of the eight hundred delegates; a rented Mississippi River paddleboat upon which delegates were plied with free booze; backroom horse-trading for votes in exchange for patronage. That night, Walter Cronkite frowned and reported sourly, “Delegates to the Young Republicans convention in Memphis have chosen as chairman a conservative with a Watergate past.” They also, however, treated Ronald Reagan like a God. They welcomed him to the stage with an original song: “If Reagan Would Only Run.” Then they interrupted him for applause a dozen times.

* “HUMAN RIGHTS” WAS ALSO MUCH in the air in Miami. Geto and Foster noted a poll going into the home stretch before the June 6 vote indicating that 62 percent of Dade Countians favored the gay rights ordinance—but that only 15 percent of them were likely to turn out: “They are too removed from it.” So they replaced their language about “gay rights” with a rhetoric of “human rights,” campaigning heavily among Jews, with an argument that resembled the famous poem by Pastor Martin Niemöller reflecting on the Nazi concentration camps: “First, they came for the gays…”

But Mike Thompson again got there first. He recruited Miami’s most prominent orthodox rabbi and put him out front, in full regalia, to call the other side’s new rhetoric an anti-Semitic outrage: “Tell us about human rights? What right is there to corrupt our children?”

Arguments like the rabbi’s won over a popular Miami Herald columnist, who wrote, “Gay rights spokesmen have got a lot of gall comparing their efforts to the civil rights struggles of blacks, or the human rights pronouncements of Jimmy Carter or the equality movement for women. As one black friend of mine put it: ‘If I’m black, I can’t hide in the closet.’ ” Meanwhile the Herald itself refused to run a pro-ordinance advertisement pointing voters to the Nazis’ 1936 decree calling for extermination of “degenerates,” including homosexuals; and another that pictured a 1950s automobile with a Confederate flag and banner on it reading “SAVE OUR CHILDREN FROM THE BLACK PLAGUE.” They did not, however, object to one from the other side that invited readers to “SCAN THESE HEADLINES FROM THE NATION’S NEWSPAPERS—THEN DECIDE: ARE HOMOSEXUALS TRYING TO RECRUIT OUR CHILDREN?” Those headlines included “Teachers Accused of Sex Acts with Boy Students” and “Homosexuals Used Scout Troop.”

In Washington, on the day of Carter’s Notre Dame human rights speech, the Department of Housing and Urban Development issued new regulations opening public housing to anyone in a “stable family relationship,” even if they were not blood relatives or legally married. The HUD official who wrote the rules was asked if that included homosexual couples. “Why exclude those persons?” she replied.

In Miami, a Save Our Children rally filled every nook and cranny of the Miami Convention Center, capacity ten thousand. Women wore dresses and men wore coats and ties. A retinue of “Cops for Christ” filed onstage to a standing ovation, to sing a hymn. Jerry Falwell was introduced to another standing ovation. He assured the congregation he was “not here for any political issue whatsoever”—“any time Sodom and Gomorrah is to be considered political is the time when we’ve lost our perspective.”

He said that if the ordinance survived “it will cause a domino effect that will cause city after city to fall.” He remembered “back when this kind of thing wasn’t even talked about by reasonable and sensible and decent people.” He observed, “The Sermon on the Mount is the basis on which our government found its roots… it’s worked for 200 years! We don’t need a group of perverts, moral perverts—I don’t call them gays. I love—I love homosexuals, because Christ died for sinners, and all men are sinners, whether homosexuals, or murderers, or liars and thieves, what have you, all of us like sheep have been led astray—I love homosexuals!” He reminded his listeners, holding up his Bible for emphasis, what happened to two other cities—one was called Sodom, the other Gomorrah—that, like Miami, surrendered to the “vile affection,” where a man had become “so low and so degraded that he would offer his two daughters to animals. Who no doubt would have raped them, and other unimaginable things. Probably killed them…”

(A group of children clustered near the front looked a little bit afraid.)

He said, “I asked Anita to come tonight” (it was the other way around). He summoned her onstage—“This little girl loves the Lord”—to praise her courage in leading the movement against what he termed “a vile and vicious and a vulgar gang. They’d kill you as quick as look at you. And if you don’t think that, you don’t know the enemy.” He directed her to sing “My Eyes Have Seen the Glory.” He concluded: “they” are “forcing our private and religious schools to accept them as teachers, forcing property owners and employers to open their doors to homosexuals no matter how blatant their perverted lives may be.”

…“ANITA BRYANT VERSUS THE HOMOSEXUALS,” read Newsweek’s cover eight days before the election. (Inside, she called gays “human garbage.”) The sheriff of San Francisco County, Richard Hongisto, arrived to campaign for the ordinance, explaining how gays had raised property values in San Francisco, refurbishing Victorian houses, opening new restaurants and retail establishments, and generally making San Francisco a more pleasant place to be. Mike Thompson countered that the City by the Bay had become a “cesspool of sexual perversion gone rampant.”

The Sunday before the balloting, the Miami Herald, which had previously commended the county board for “mustering the courage to hold fast to the principles of non-discrimination,” reserved itself, and endorsed Save Our Children. That same day, a gay political operative stopped at a red light. A car full of men pulled up beside him. One pointed a shotgun at his head and announced, “We’re gonna blow your fuckin’ brains out.” The marauders then sped away.

And on Tuesday 50 percent of Dade County’s eligible voters, a colossal showing for an odd-year municipal election, turned out to strike gay rights off the books by a margin of 69.3 percent to 30.7 percent.

In the Zodiac Room of the Collins Avenue Holiday Inn, Anita Bryant, resplendent in powder blue, pronounced, “Tonight the laws of God and the cultural values of man have been vindicated. I thank God for the strength He has given me and I thank my fellow citizens who joined me in what at first was a walk through the wilderness. The people of Dade County—the normal majority—have said, ‘Enough! Enough! Enough!’ ” She promised, “We will now carry our fight against similar laws throughout the nation that attempt to legitimize a lifestyle that is both perverted and dangerous to the sanctity of the family, dangerous to our children, dangerous to our freedom of religion and freedom of choice, dangerous to our survival as a nation.”

She performed a little jig. Her husband kissed her on the lips, then adopted a lisp: “This is what heterosexuals doooo, fellas!”

* DURING MUGGY WASHINGTON SUMMERS, OFFICIAL business slows, Congress goes into recess, and the thoughts of bored political reporters turn to “thumbsuckers”—think pieces on the state of the nation and its politics. This year the Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau chief, Norman C. Miller, heralded thumbsucker season in grand style with a piece atop the editorial page called “Ailing GOP May Not Recover.” “Even party professionals,” Miller wrote, “no longer regard the death of the GOP as an impossibility.”

He quoted a young conservative congressman from Michigan, David Stockman, who said, “Only a tidal movement in the electorate can allow us to recover.” The Ford presidential campaign’s John Deardourff said the party’s future would “come down to a choice between a slow, painful death and a mercy killing.” Reagan’s 1976 campaign manager John Sears offered a species of optimism: “The Republican Party is like a fungus—it may look dead, but you can never kill it.” The RNC’s former political director countered, “Anyone who says we are not potentially at the sunset of the Republican Party is kidding himself.”

In a letter to the editor, Representative Phil Crane of Illinois, a cerebral former college professor who chaired the American Conservative Union, offered a New Right–flavored response. He pointed to the upset victory in Washington State eight days earlier, and Carter’s slew of recent legislative setbacks—and that Gerald Ford had almost won—as evidence of “a tangible resurgence of conservative ideas.” He concluded, “What is in fact occurring is a rebirth. The core of the Republican Party—conservatism—is reasserting itself. This strong base, submerged during the unrealistic groundswell attempt to gather every American into the GOP fold, is now coming into its own.”

His was a lonely counsel. The media looked at the stats—less than a third of state legislators, control of both the statehouse and legislature in only four states, so few governors that “two Checker cabs could carry” them, party identification at under a fifth of the electorate—and piled on.

The Boston Globe’s David Nyhan said the “two party system is now down to one-and-a-half parties.” That was because “the party of Abraham Lincoln forgot its heritage and started neglecting minorities.” Nyhan’s colleague Robert Healy interviewed Senator Edward Brooke, who manfully ticked down a list of strong Republican leaders, from Howard Baker to Ronald Reagan to Senator Dole (“don’t forget he was the vice presidential candidate last time”)—then lost heart, conceding there was “no real possibility of a ‘whale’ for the 1980 presidential contest against President Carter.”

A particularly important straw in the wind, Nyhan noted, was that the “much-touted GOP opening in the South has been foreclosed by the Georgian.” The New York Times reported that the table talk at the annual meeting of Southern Republicans was how the “survival of the party as a significant force in the South is believed to be at stake.” The Washington Post, from the same meeting, reported that despite Ford’s 45 percent of the Dixie vote in 1976, only two Republican candidates below the level of governor had been elected to any Southern statewide offices since 1973. “Gone is the dream of ‘realignment,’ ” they concluded, the “unrealized expectation of mass defections of Democratic office-holders.”

The thumbsuckers had the backing of one of the country’s most distinguished experts on public opinion. Everett Carll Ladd’s article “The Unmaking of the Republican Party” ran in Fortune in August. He said the GOP’s intellectual narrowness made it more like a “church than a coalition,” a mere “institution for conservative believers.” The fiscal ordeals of the Nixon-Ford years had scotched the traditional notion that Republicans were better at managing the economy. “Signs of defection by big business are already evident,” the “alienation of informed opinion and the intellectual community” from the party was at hand; all in all, Ladd concluded, “the GOP today is in a weaker position than any major party of the U.S. since the Civil War”—a mere “half-party.” The next month Fortune ran his findings on the Democrats—“the established governing party to a degree unequaled by any other alliance since the Jeffersonians,” ahead among every age, income, and educational group, even businessmen and executives, even self-identified conservatives, because of “the almost universal acceptance among Americans of the general policy approach of the New Deal.”

* American streets felt like harrowing places. A moral panic was afoot that spring concerning the drug PCP. The Washington Post said it could “turn a person into a rampaging semblance of a cornered wild animal,” and blamed it for a nonexistent local schizophrenia epidemic. Actually, the drug delivered only a slightly more intense high than marijuana. Studies proved it usually had no more lasting harm. The stories about peaceful youth become feral beasts at their first taste of the stuff were myths. Which did nothing to abate all the breathless TV news segments about “angel dust” users plucking out their own eyes and bashing in car windows.

Another moral panic concerned an alleged epidemic of children being seduced from Midwestern streets and turned into Times Square sex slaves. On May 27, sensational hearings on the subject opened before the House Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on crime. “The horror stories,” Father Bruce Ritter said of his experience ministering in Times Square, “were literally endless.” Dr. Judianne Densen-Gerber claimed 120,000 children in the New York metropolitan area were ensnared in the trade. One witness claimed a guidebook to procuring boys for sex called Where the Young Ones Are had sold 70,000 copies at $5 each. Another told the tale of an eight-year-old hustler who plied his trade by inviting men to take him to the bathroom with the come on, “It’s $10 and you have got ten minutes.”

* Ted Bundy was a young, charismatic former law student with a face from out of a cologne ad, a Republican campaign volunteer who’d attended the 1968 convention as a Nelson Rockefeller delegate. In 1971, he began abducting, murdering, and sexually mutilating pretty young women around universities in Seattle. He moved to Utah, became a Mormon, then slaughtered some more. He was captured and went to jail in Colorado in January 1977—then, six months later, during a preliminary hearing, he jumped out a courthouse window and eluded his captors for almost a week.

* THE NEWS WAS A BANQUET of terrors. A longing for innocence, for good guys putting paid to bad guys, was one result. It showed up at the box office before it registered at the ballot box.

In the 1960s, after a long decline brought on by the rise of television and the waning of the old studio system, Hollywood began abandoning formulaic stories and a predictable stable of stars in favor of adventurous fare from filmmakers like Martin Scorsese, Arthur Penn, Dennis Hopper, and Robert Altman, who drew inspiration from the art cinema of Europe. Films began featuring moral ambiguity, dark moods, a suffusing skepticism toward establishments of every description—and the public flocked to them. Hits were movies like Bernardo Bertolucci’s Last Tango in Paris (1972), a picture about a kinky random sexual encounter, a rape, and a murder, which made $96.3 million on a budget of $1.25 million. Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 and 1974 Godfather films, which treated mainstream and mafia success in the United States as nearly interchangeable, earned in the hundreds of millions. Last Tango and The Godfather starred Marlon Brando at a time when he was fat and nearly fifty years old. Leading men who were not conventionally attractive—short, awkward Dustin Hoffman and shaggy Elliott Gould, both visibly Jewish; Jack Nicholson, carrying himself with a cruel air of menace—was another sign of what critics celebrated as the country’s newly maturing cinematic taste. At the Oscars in 1976 the deeply subversive anti-institutional parable One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, starring Nicholson—another $100 million earner—took home all five of the major statues.

But at the ceremony on March 28, 1977, the Academy overlooked sophisticated New Hollywood fare like All the President’s Men, the Watergate thriller; Bound for Glory, a visually luscious biopic of Woody Guthrie featuring depictions of American poverty as searing as any ever committed to the screen; and Taxi Driver, a sepulchral masterpiece of urban alienation, about a Vietnam veteran named Travis Bickle, driven insane by the “open sewer” that New York City had become, who tries to assassinate a presidential candidate to impress a child prostitute played by a thirteen-year-old. Instead, they celebrated a conventionally inspiring and vaguely reactionary picture in which the audience’s every emotion was cued by a swelling musical score, a movie labeled “pure 1930s make-believe” by Vincent Canby of the New York Times Rocky was the story of an Italian-American boxer who went the distance against a mouthy black champion modeled on Muhammad Ali. Its Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Director felt to disappointed critics like a political statement: New Hollywood, with all its vaguely left-wing pretensions, was down for the count.

The knockout blow came in the summer of 1977.

George Lucas was one of the young directors who got his chance with the New Hollywood wave. His first film, a freakish dystopian sci-fi nightmare called THX 1138, was a commercial disaster. His next, American Graffiti, about high school kids hanging out in hot rod–crazed early-sixties California, was nostalgic, ebullient, and a hit. “I discovered that making a positive film is exhilarating,” Lucas later reflected. “I thought, ‘Maybe I should make a film like this for even younger kids.… Kids today don’t have any fantasy life the way we had—they don’t have Westerns, they don’t have pirate movies.” He decided to aim his next movie at eight- or nine-year-olds. “Everybody’s forgetting to tell the kids, ‘Hey, this is right and this is wrong.’ ” The action consisted of one Old Hollywood pastiche after another. Star Wars was a Ronald Reagan sort of film.

STAR WARS WAS NOT A Jimmy Carter sort of film. The nation’s cardigan-wearing prophet of sacrifice drew little inspiration from morality tales. His favorite theologian was Reinhold Niebuhr, an anti-utopian who despised simple answers and cheap grace, let alone conservatives who believed that all the answers for living could be easily and painlessly extracted from the plain text of the Bible. Niebuhr believed that a too-simple division of the world into lightness and dark led to calamity. Carter’s favorite quote from him was “The sad duty of politics is to establish justice in a sinful world”—not exactly a Disney sort of message. The president’s taste for Niebuhrian moral complexity was one of the things that made him so ideologically ambiguous—not an easy thing to be in a culture clamoring more and more for easy solutions in confusing times.

You could see this in July after the Washington Post reported the existence of a secret strategy document, “Presidential Review Memorandum 10,” that some claimed outlined a new, harder line against the Soviet menace—but which others, including one of Evans and Novak’s anonymous neoconservative sources, argued was pushing greater accommodation with the Soviet Union. In fact, it did both, in different ways for different contexts. The world was a complex place—and that was not always an easy thing for a politician to explain.

* On Saturday, July 2, a community activist wrote a desperate appeal to the President of the United States about the rash of vandalism against businesses on San Francisco’s Castro Street, including his own camera store: “It is now open season on gay people.… Please. I will come to Washington to meet you. The nation needs leadership.” His name was Harvey Milk, and he was planning a new run for the city’s board of supervisors. An Irish-Catholic former San Francisco cop and fireman was preparing to run, too. He composed an election pamphlet promising, “I am not going to be forced out of San Francisco by splinter groups of radicals, social deviates, and incorrigibles.” His name was Dan White.

On the nation’s 201st birthday, a car full of teenagers picked up a hitchhiker. A girl put a gun to his head: “If you breathe, we’re gonna kill you, faggot.” They drove to a dark street, where two boys took turns raping him, crying, “Anita is right! Anita is right!” When the victim told an emergency room doctor at the University of California Medical Center what had happened, the doctor replied, “Well, you are homosexual, aren’t you?”

* New York had suffered a blackout in 1965. During its thirteen hours, the crime rate declined. Indeed, once New Yorkers became convinced that Russian missiles weren’t on the way, the wary anonymity of the city had transformed itself into a contagion of joy. They even made a movie about it, Where Were You When the Lights Went Out?, a frothy Doris Day romp that ended with a blessed event precisely nine months later. The posters advertised, “Oh, the liberties that were taken the night New York City flipped its fuse…”

In 1977, different sorts of liberties were taken: 1965-inverted, formerly alienated, atomized Gothamites once more united in carnivalesque communion, this time to strip the city bare.

Police arriving at one of the first Manhattan stores to be looted, at 99th and Broadway—not a slum—were met with a hail of bottles. In depressed neighborhoods like Bushwick in Brooklyn, marauders pried open stores’ steel shutters with crowbars, or jimmied hooks beneath them to pull them free with automobiles. People punched through display windows, their fists wrapped in towels to keep blood off the clothes they ripped from the mannequins. Sporting goods stores were relieved of guns and ammo. A Daily News reporter witnessed fifty Pontiacs driven off a new car lot in the Bronx “in a motorcade with horns blaring and pretty girls waving from the windows.”

Since New York’s near bankruptcy in 1975, 3,400 police and 1,000 firemen had been laid off. Those remaining had had their wages frozen. The year 1976 was the worst for crime in New York’s history. In the 83rd Precinct in Bedford-Stuyvesant, rookies were given three simple rules: “Don’t walk close to the buildings (someone might drop a brick on you). Don’t let neighborhood kids wear your hat (lice). Always check the earpiece on call boxes before using it (dog shit).” And that was under normal circumstances.

Every officer was ordered to report to duty immediately; 40 percent didn’t bother. Others arrived in street clothes, unarmed. (Helpfully, looters had left behind the baseball bats at a big sporting goods store in Brooklyn; and in any event, cops were under orders to keep their guns holstered.) So many support staff had been laid off that it took at least ten hours to process each arrest. City buses filled with men in chains stopped at jail after jail, searching for empty cells. A riot broke out at the Bronx House of Detention. Prisoners escaped from Rikers Island. The gay magazine Michael’s Thing reported an orgy on Weehawken Street in the West Village. (“Nudity was the rule; many guys were pushed against cars and performed upon with the full consent of everyone there.”) In Times Square, entrepreneurs with flashlights sold secure passage for $2. “Considering the dubious occupations of some of those characters,” the BBC’s Alistair Cooke ventured, “I think I would have chosen to stagger alone.”

* It was a former Nixon administration official who moved the matter into scandal territory. William Safire was a New York native who had dropped out of college to take a job as a legman for columnist Tex McCrary of the New York Herald-Tribune, a celebrity journalist who also hosted his own TV show with his wife. In violation of the most basic canons of journalistic ethics, McCrary was also a public relations agent—a denizen of the twilight realm immortalized in the 1957 film Sweet Smell of Success, where gossip columnists and publicists conspired to titillate the masses and aggrandize themselves. His young protégé watched and learned.

In 1959, Safire cleverly maneuvered the two most powerful men in the world into the “typical American home” set up at the American National Exhibition in Moscow’s Sokolniki Park by a McCrary PR client. There, Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev semi-spontaneously engaged in a legendary “kitchen debate” over the relative merits of the communism and capitalism. As Safire told the story in his 1963 book, The Relations Explosion, a manual on how to manipulate public perception, Khrushchev’s security forces attempted to block a New York Times reporter from the enclosure. Safire claimed the man was there to demonstrate the refrigerator—then that a Life magazine photographer was with the manufacturer of the washing machine. The media coup that resulted helped catapult Richard Nixon to the 1960 Republican presidential nomination.

Nixon hired Safire as a presidential speechwriter. Upon leaving the White House in 1973, he joined the New York Times as a Washington columnist, enjoying the fruit of one of Richard Nixon’s most successful PR coups: intimidating the Eastern establishment media into hiring conservatives. Sneaking the norms, standards, and techniques from the world of Sweet Smell of Success into the Newspaper of Record, he became one of Washington’s most effectual pundits. One thing every gossip columnist knew how to do was destroy a reputation. Indeed, his 1963 book offered a step-by-step how-to. In 1977, he set out to destroy Jimmy Carter’s.

He began sending up trial balloons. A January 24, 1977, column punned that Carter’s inaugural was “pedestrian.” But Safire was about the only one who thought so. So on February 3 he tried another angle of attack, tying a Carter State Department official, Warren Christopher, to “the infamous ‘Doar Plan’… the then-secret but now-notorious inter-division information unit of the LBJ Justice Department to war on dissenters.”

Not so infamous, apparently: no other journalist bit. Safire moved on.

On February 28 he insinuated that House Speaker Tip O’Neill was conspiring with the head of the Justice Department’s criminal division, Benjamin Civiletti, to bury the Korean influence-peddling scandal. The column included a favorite Safire technique, listing objective-sounding, but actually insinuating, questions—raising an aura of guilt without the burden of facts: “Will Mr. Civiletti inform the Senate in writing every 30 days about the status of this chimerical investigation of House members?” “Will he agree to resign if given an arbitrary time limit?” In March he said Civiletti’s service as treasurer of a Democratic Senate campaign was an abuse of power “that would have made John Mitchell blush.” The only pickup these charges got, however, was a letter to the editor from Senator Joseph Tydings, who said that comparing Jimmy Carter’s Justice Department to Richard Nixon’s was like “equating Hustler magazine with the New York Times.” (As it happened, one Safire column praised a Hustler magazine article—unjustly neglected, he sniffed—which argued that Watergate was a Democratic coup.)

In April he teed off on Paul Warnke for “ideological bias” in his hiring practices; in May, he went after two State Department officials with a supposedly corrupt business connection to a TV station; in June, the target was Vice President Mondale, for supposedly installing a “gang of four” of pro-administration prosecutors in the Justice Department; none of these seeds took root with other investigators. Then, after the revelation of Pat Caddell’s ten-thousand-word political strategy memo, Safire lamented that the Carter administration believed “the way to stay in the corridors of power is to turn them into halls of mirrors.” Which, coming from the architect of the Kitchen Debate, was pretty rich.

* A night out with the wife? Try one of the proliferating Christian nightclubs. Problems in the bedroom? Turn to Pastor Tim and Mrs. Beverly LaHaye’s The Act of Marriage: The Beauty of Sexual Love, which insisted, “Modern research has made it abundantly clear that all married women are capable of orgasmic ecstasy. No Christian woman should settle for less.” (Then, in one of the most curious biblical exegeses in the history of Christendom, the LaHayes revealed a Scriptural instruction for manual clitoral stimulation: “The wife lying on her back with her knees bent and feet pulled up to her hips and her husband lying on her right side”—just like the Song of Solomon said: “Let his left hand be under my head and his right hand embrace me.”)

* ANTIFEMINISTS ALSO HAD POWERFUL SECULAR arguments. One was that the feminism, by stripping social sanctions against extramarital sex, turned women into disposable toys, freeing men to cast them economically adrift. Another involved social class. According to one study of the pro-choice movement, 94 percent of its activists worked, almost 40 percent had gone to graduate school, and one in four had an MD, a PhD, or a law degree. Feminist leaders tended to be lawyers, professors, and foundation executives. No wonder they viewed working outside the home as fulfilling. The same survey found that most antifeminist activists who worked were unmarried, had menial, deadening jobs, and 90 percent had no college degree. In the world as these women experienced it, marriage was what rescued you from work. Feminists wanted to force you back.

* A mimeographed anti-ERA plaint sent to legislatures observed, “These women lawyers, women legislators, and women executives promoting ERA have plenty of education and talent to get what they want in the business, political, and academic world.…We, the wives and working women, need you, dear Senators and Representatives, to protect us.”

The same rhetoric reverberated across the heartfelt letters they sent to representatives begging them to vote against the ERA: “I want to remain on a pedestal.” “I want to remain a homemaker.” “I want to remain a woman.” Just like Tammy Wynette sang in “Don’t Liberate Me (Love Me)”: “Today a group of women came to see me / To convince me women don’t have equal rights / And they left me when I told them I feel equal to an angel / When my man holds me at night.” One reason such arguments were so effective was that they caught feminists off-guard. Dr. Joyce Brothers, the celebrity psychotherapist, appeared on The Merv Griffin Show with Phyllis Schlafly. Dr. Brothers exclaimed, “The idea that a woman can go sit home and be supported by her husband, that has long ago died out!” Came back Schlafly, calm as ever: “Forty million women are being supported by their husbands today.” The retort stunned Dr. Brothers into a glum silence.

* Jews, themselves victims of religious quotas a generation earlier, also joined Bakke’s side—setting traditionally liberal Jewish organizations at odds with the civil rights groups they had proudly fought beside in the time of Martin Luther King Jr. Another left-leaning group supporting Bakke was the American Federation of Teachers, a union historically led by Jewish socialists, but which was still stinging from savage battles in the late 1960s in Brooklyn, when blacks and the liberal foundations that supported them demanded “local”—i.e., black—control of schools, whatever the consequences for union protections for mostly Jewish teachers.

* In 1950, America’s share of the world economy was 40 percent. Now [1978] it was 11 percent. [In 2020, it was 15%.]

* Jimmy Carter certainly felt alienated from his party’s liberals: “I feel more at home with the conservative Democratic and Republican members of Congress,” he wrote in his diary the day of his State of the Union address. In a meeting with corporate executives, he pledged to decrease the percentage of GDP spent by the federal government from 23 percent to 21 percent. In his State of the Union address, he praised Hubert Humphrey as a tribune for “the weak and the hungry and the victims of discrimination and poverty”—then intoned: “Government cannot solve our problems, it can’t set our goals, it cannot define our vision. Government cannot eliminate poverty or provide a bountiful economy or reduce inflation or save our cities or cure illiteracy or provide energy.”

* But there was no natural constituency for “tax simplification.” There was, however, a very powerful constituency for tax complexity. They were already hard at work. For instance, the hotel and restaurant lobbies went to ground to fight Carter’s proposal to rein in abuses of the tax code’s allowance for “ordinary and necessary business expenses”—what the press dubbed his war against the “three-martini lunch.”

* He complained about a bill approaching passage giving him immediate power to appoint 150 new federal judges, a prospect “I certainly don’t want.… In this four-year term I will have appointed more than half the total federal judges in the United States.” The possibility of placing his stamp on the federal judiciary for generations to come would have made other presidents salivate. Carter considered it an ordeal.

* …closely enough for alert congressional staffers to easily brief their bosses that experts agreed: the problem with an economy heading further south every day was not the machinations of the far-off oil sheiks of OPEC, or the hangover from an underfunded Vietnam War, or underused industrial capacity, or the underfunding of public investment, or a lack of countervailing power to big business, or greedy corporations chasing higher profits—the liberals’ explanations for America’s economic woes. The problem was too much government.

Indeed, there was scant room in any of these paradigms for criticizing business at all. If companies were prospering, it was because they deserved to prosper—they were winners in the competitive marketplace. And if they were not prospering: that must be because regulation and high taxes had distorted the competitiveness of the marketplace. The devil, however, was still in the details. What should a tax bill that honored such premises look like? Milton Friedman was among those who insisted that any tax cut had to be accompanied by equivalent cuts in government spending. Paul Craig Roberts didn’t think you necessarily had to cut spending at all.

Whose argument would prevail? To whom would the spoils of intellectual victory belong? Not the professor who could array his Greek-letter equations most convincingly to other professors, it turned out. This was Washington, after all; the battle went to the swift. Which in practice meant those willing to take intellectual shortcuts. And there, Paul Craig Roberts’s school already had a considerable head start. Its name was supply-side economics.

* ITS ARCHITECTS WERE A MOTLEY crew. One was a thirty-year-old junior professor at the University of Chicago who joined Richard Nixon’s Office of Management and Budget as chief economist. He offered an estimate of the 1971 gross national projection far more optimistic than any other in circulation. Nixon gladly seized on it in speeches. Embarassment followed, after actual GNP fell dramatically short of the young economist’s predictions, which had relied on only four variables when most such forecasting models used hundreds. He left Washington a laughingstock. His name was Arthur Laffer.

Another was something of an eccentric: as a professor at Columbia University, he had written a series of classic scholarly papers in the early 1960s on currency exchange rate dilemmas facing his native Canada that helped define a subfield. During the 1970s, however, he largely stopped writing in economics journals and presenting at mainstream conferences, instead convening his own at a villa in the Italian countryside. He grew his hair long, and began referring to the typical work product of his mainstream economist colleagues—including Milton Friedman—as “sheer quackery.” His name was Robert A. Mundell.

A third figure was a journalist with no training in economics. At the age of thirty-three, in 1970, Robert Bartley took over the Wall Street Journal’s editorial page and “made clear,” as a critic put it, “that the Journal would henceforth be neither cautious nor even-handed on economic issues. Instead, it would campaign aggressively for what Bartley believed in. And Bartley is a self-confident man, calmly sure that he is right even when nearly everyone around him thinks he has lost his head.”

Bartley’s favorite editorial writer, like most of the New Right leaders with whom he would become aligned, came from working-class roots: he was son of an itinerant butcher from the Appalachian foothills. His first job in journalism was at the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which was where he claimed to have grasped the basics of economics—by pursuing his hobby of counting cards to beat the house at blackjack. His name was Jude Wanniski.

Together, these four men arguably became the most influential economic thinkers in the history of the United States, even though their theories turned out to be substantially wrong.

In 1973, Laffer tutored Bartley and Wanniski that what other economists believed about inflation—that its causes were complex and obscure—was incorrect. Bartley, convinced, invited Laffer to compose a series of articles in the Journal, in which he preached his heterodox theory like it had been handed down on stone tablets.

* Professors from across the ideological spectrum dismissed the supply-side enterprise as errant nonsense. Gardner Ackley, an architect of the Kennedy-Johnson tax, called Kemp-Roth “the most irresponsible policy proposal—seriously advanced by people who should know better—that I can recall during the nearly forty years I have been closely observing or participating in national economic policy making. I am ashamed of my profession for the fact that a handful of its members have suggested or endorsed this policy.” Milton Friedman said the raging inflation it would produce made it merely “a proposal to change the form of taxes.” Franco Modigliani said it would “do irreparable damage to the United States economy.” Alan Greenspan, Gerald Ford’s former chief economic advisor, said of Laffer, “I don’t know anyone who seriously believes his argument.” Another free-market economist, George Stigler, bound for a Nobel Prize four years later, labeled his former University of Chicago colleague “a propagandist.” The economics editor of Business Week called supply-side “more a source of amusement than a basis for public policy.” The conservative economist Herbert Stein called Laffer’s curve “extreme to the point of bizarre,” a “shoddy echo of silly self-serving businessmen’s nostrums going back to time immemorial.”

Stein then twisted the knife: “It may turn out that such a tax cut will raise revenue, just as it may turn out that there is human life on Mars. But I would not invest much in a McDonald’s franchise on that planet.”

Steiger’s capital gains cut amendment came in for drubbings almost as severe. Herb Stein concluded that even “using the most favorable assumptions” it would take three decades “to regain the revenue level that would have been achieved without the tax cut,” because investors would park much of their unearned windfall on luxuries like expensive art.

* Ministers may have sincerely believed that their only aim was to give glory to God. Allen naïvely insisted, “My personal view is that we shouldn’t even know whether one of our children is black or white.” The effect was frequently segregationist nonetheless. And besides, all Christian academies were segregation academies, of another sort: they militantly segregated young minds from any cosmopolitan influence…

Some used no textbooks. “The Bible is all we need,” explained the headmaster of a school, housed in a prefab steel building in Durham, that advertised “Quality Christian Education” even though its teachers had no accreditation. Robert Billings’s Guide to the Christian School promised readers everything they needed to know to establish their own in 139 pages. A decade after calling it the most exciting development in education, Christianity Today said that many “so-called Christian schools” were “shoddy, racist, superpatriotic pretenses unworthy either of the designation of Christian or of school.” And by the Bicentennial year, government officials charged with certifying that Christian academies followed the law began meeting fanatical resistance.

Evangelical media followed such stories obsessively. Also the long-simmering case of Bob Jones University, which was founded in the 1920s in Greenville, South Carolina, with a large bequest from the Ku Klux Klan, and was the alma mater of Christian right luminaries like Robert Billings and Tim LaHaye. BJU officials fought in court to save their IRS exemption after the federal government moved to withhold it for their refusal to admit blacks; and then, when they began admitting them, for banning blacks from dating whites. Another case involved little Hillsdale College, a conservative school in Michigan that the Crane brothers had attended. It was proudly racially integrated, with an equal number of male and female students, but like BJU it was refused federal funding—because, as Ronald Reagan raged in a column, “battalions of social engineers” at the Department Health, Education, and Welfare (who “spend all their working hours devising new ways to make schools conform to their view of what education should be”) demanded that, since some students accepted GI Bill funds and loans guaranteed by the federal government, administrators had to sign a statement affirming that the school did not discriminate against women. On principle, the school refused to sign.

* It was an example of how sophisticated the New Right was becoming at organizing discontent—and came out just as word began circulating in the evangelical world, in the middle of August, that a new set of IRS guidelines for private schools seeking tax exemptions was about to come down. Senator Hatch responded with a statement: “It does not take too much imagination” to envision the IRS demanding “homosexual teachers, the availability of abortion counselors, and the abolition of male and female choruses.” Adding to the paranoia, the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Division had just ruled that a group founded to “foster an understanding and tolerance of homosexuals and their problems” would henceforth qualify for tax exemptions under 501(c)(3).

* As head of daytime programming for CBS, Silverman had turned the fill-in-the-blank quiz show Match Game into an afternoon festival of sexual innuendo. (Host Gene Rayburn: “A giant turtle tried to _____ a Volkswagen.” Panelist Betty White: “Not with the engine in the rear!”) As president of ABC, he presided over the invention of a new sort of programming his critics dubbed “Jigglevision”: On Charlie’s Angels, three sexy single ladies solved crimes for an offscreen boss. On Three’s Company, two sexy single ladies shared an apartment with a single man. The Love Boat chronicled a singles bar on the high seas; its executive producer once fired off a memo demanding “Do we have enough titillating, purely sexual stories?” and another complaining that there weren’t enough scripts providing love interests for the ship’s pretty cruise director Julie McCoy (“Let the poor girl get laid—please!”). The typical Silverman product married adult situations to stories so simpleminded they could be appreciated by children. Critics dubbed it “kiddie porn”; other networks rushed to copy it. In 1978, NBC snapped Silverman up. Doonesbury imagined his first day on the job: “To program for nine-year-olds, you have to think like nine-year-olds. If you want NBC to start clicking again, you’re going to have to stop acting like grown men! Understood?… Good. Now, let’s take a look at your cleavage situation.”

TV news was increasingly titillating, too.

* Until, on the thirteenth day, the three finally emerged, haggard, with a text in hand all could agree on, and presented themselves before the hundreds of news-starved journalists who had hunkered down in futility in a nearby VFW hall with no one to interview but each other for nearly two weeks.

As the three world leaders announced their miracle, thunderclouds were massing. It looked like the helicopters would not even be able to lift off to ferry the parties back to Washington. Then, they did—and the passengers bore witness to a stunning display of gratitude: homeowners in the flight path had turned on every light in their houses, and the lights in their yards, and the lights on their porches, and the eerie, awesome glow lit the helicopters’ way from the mountaintop to the executive mansion, where the arrival of the three men was illuminated by a massive assemblage of television klieg lights.

They sat down in the East Room to sign what history called the Camp David Accords. Seats reserved for the Egyptian delegation were empty: diplomats feared for their lives should their participation become known. This attested to Anwar Sadat’s awesome courage.

* Carter didn’t seem to recognize the danger in this to Democrats’ political fortunes. But Ronald Reagan did: “For Democratic politicians long used to harvesting votes by dispensing nearly unlimited amounts of middle-class dollars, the new reality is going to be hard to get used to,” he wrote in a column analyzing the congressional elections. “No wonder there were some sweaty Democrat brows the other night.” Representative Tom Foley, a Watergate baby from Washington State, grasped it, too: “Tight budgets strain all the natural fault lines of the Democratic Party. The pressure will intensify as we approach the presidential election year and each group starts pressing its claims.”

* “Jimmy Carter developed” an excruciating case of the hemorrhoids. Time helpfully explained treatments available to the Leader of the Free World. One involved “dilating, or widening, the anus with stretching devises.” Another, “cooling the affected area with liquid nitrogen,” was painless but “produces a foul-smelling discharge that requires wearing a sanitary pad for a few weeks.”

* A HISTORIAN ONCE CALLED HIS book about the 1970s It Seemed Like Nothing Happened. Certainly it seemed so compared to the 1960s, when new revolutions seemed to burst forth every month. But in fact enormous things were happening. They just weren’t always the sort of things that made for bold, clear headlines. Corporations withdrew their support for the liberal state and politicians embraced capital gains tax cuts; fundamentalist ministers inched their way into partisan politics and conservatives crept ever closer to control of the Republican Party; the Democrats fell into ideological confusion and the electorate became increasingly finicky—such things were, in a word, complicated: the sort of developments that rewired the invisible structures that order a society.

* Between 1944 and 1976, when the U.S. population grew 44 percent, credit card debt increased 1,300 percent. One in five holders never paid off their balances in full. And on December 18, 1978, came another of those quiet revolutions that helped rewire the invisible structures that govern the world: the United States Supreme Court, in Marquette v. First of Omaha, let banks charter themselves anywhere, rendering state laws capping credit card interest rates moot—meaning that not paying your credit card would cost more than ever before.

* THE MEN RISING TO CHALLENGE Jimmy Carter did not generally resemble superheroes. Most were painfully bland. No surprise, then, that the first to emerge from the pack was the most charismatic of the bunch—who practically had leadership tattooed his forehead.

He was often photographed on his ranch, astride a horse. He grew up poor in the hinterlands, became a big man on campus in college, took a Hollywood screen test at the height of the Depression, and a served as a governor in the booming Sun Belt. He appeared the exact match for what a dejected nation desired in their president—not least in the way he held himself aloof from Washington, which he called a “jungle.”

Editors sent journalists to capture him for their readers in profile after profile after profile, which all turned out almost exactly the same. They talked about his “carriage,” and how he was “always absolutely in control of himself.” How he bore an “actor’s control over his body,” and was “never out of character.” (“Even in an airplane or an automobile he sits so erect that he resembles one of those inflatable dummy passengers used in safety tests.”) Producers of television commercials particularly admired him. In his memoir of the 1976 campaign, Gerald Ford’s adman Mal MacDougall told of cutting a Ford commercial with this exemplary specimen under trying conditions at a state fair. The first take was virtually perfect—except that it ran four seconds long. MacDougall offered to cut a few words from the script.

“No,” the performer answered. “I’ll just shorten my drawl.”

The director called “Action!” The performer recited his lines precisely four seconds more expeditiously. MacDougall recorded his awe at how good he looked, “that tanned Texas face, the silver hair, the clean white shirt.”

The man was not Ronald Reagan. He was John Connally of Texas. Ronald Reagan was the front-runner among Republicans in every presidential poll. But pundits said this was misleading—that in the earliest innings of a presidential race, first place was a bad place to be.

* Irving Kristol’s face smiled out from the cover of the February 13 issue of Esquire. “This unknown intellectual,” it read, “is the godfather of the most powerful new political force in America—NEOCONSERVATISM.” Inside, the package of articles, charts, and lists began with an epigraph from Karl Marx—“The ruling ideas of each age have ever been the ideas of its ruling class”—and continued on for twenty lavishly illustrated pages. One essay described neoconservatives as “The Reasonable Right”—a radical reasonableness, however, because neoconservatives were the first conservative cadre in generations that fit comfortably within America’s true corridors of power, the places where the nation’s cultural common sense was formed: the university seminar room, the Manhattan dinner party, the nonprofit foundation boardroom.

* One reason for his [Jerry Falwell] success might have been a skill increasingly in demand in the South after Brown v. Board of Education: justifications for racism. He argued in one 1958 sermon, published in the first issue of a newspaper he began publishing in conjunction with his new TV broadcast, the “racial problem in this country is not one of hate—but one of Biblical principle.” Biblical principle was foursquare on the side of segregation, as one could see by studying Acts 17:26, in which the Lord sets the “bounds of their habitation” for the nations of the earth. God condemned Noah’s son Ham and his brethren for all time to be “servants of servants.” “Reading Genesis 10:6–20, and by searching your Bible dictionary and concordance you will find that Ham was the progenitor of the African, or Ethiopian, or colored race.… The mistake we have made is simply this: We have left God out of our decisions altogether. If Chief Warren and his associates had known God’s Word and had desired to do the Lord’s will, I am quite confident that the 1954 decision would never have been made. What could possibly have worked out in a scriptural and orderly way, now has become a touchy problem.” For the “true Negro… does not want integration. He realizes his potential is far better among his own race. Who then is propagating this terrible thing? First of all, we see the hand of Moscow in the background.… It boils down to whether we are going to take God’s word as final.”

* He was no longer a racial segregationist. His understanding of the Devil’s work on earth was different now: it was gays seeking civil rights. He also liked to quote “a man from whom I took great inspiration”: “Fellows, if you’re going to be successful, see a fight going all the time. You do pretty well at that.” Just like Howard Phillips said: organize discontent.

* “White males eighteen to thirty-four,” a Rolling Stone writer commented, “are the most likely to see disco as the product of homosexuals, blacks, and Latins, and therefore they’re the most likely to respond to appeals to wipe out such threats to their security.”

* Lee Atwater explained the secret to an inquiring political scientist in 1981—though he asked not to be quoted. The trick was “how abstract you handle the race thing.… You start out in 1954 by saying, ‘Nigger, nigger, nigger.’ By 1968 you can’t say ‘nigger’—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… And if it is getting that abstract and that coded, we’re doing away with the racial problem one way or another. You follow me? Because obviously sitting around saying, ‘We want to cut taxes, we want to cut this,’ is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than ‘Nigger, nigger.’ So any way you look at it, race is coming on the back burner.”

* Reagan had won practically every debate he had participated in—going back at least to 1967, when he appeared on the same TV hookup with Robert F. Kennedy to discuss the Vietnam War, and twisted his opponent in such knots that Kennedy subsequently yelled “Who the fuck got me into this?” and ordered staffers never to pair him with “that son-of-a-bitch” ever again.

A former speaker in the California assembly had warned them about that. But Jimmy Carter was an arrogant man. His political staff had staged their own rounds of practice debates, with a young political science professor playing Reagan—who did a credible enough imitation that Carter was soundly defeated. His response to that was to cancel the scrimmages. He was president, after all. He dealt with these issues all the time. He could handle the actor. There was no one around him willing or able to penetrate the bubble to persuade him otherwise—of Reagan’s extraordinary skill, perfected over decades, at sounding neither extreme nor ill-informed (even when he actually was) but kindly and shrewd.

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