‘The Making of the American Conservative Mind: National Review and Its Times’ (2005)

Jeffrey Hart wrote this delicious book (my 2005 interview with Professor Hart):

* EVERYWHERE WILLMOORE KENDALL went he carried turbulence with him. Unusual behavior. Outrages. The geometrical opposite of the decorous, diplomatic, and elegant James Burnham.

At National Review there remains to this day a leather couch known as “The Willmoore Kendall Memorial Couch.” One evening, after hours, an editor returned to the premises and surprised Kendall on this piece of furniture in flagrante with an employee. Bill Buckley, hearing of this, wondered why he could not have found a hotel room. The business-hours occupant of that office was appalled that he had used her couch for this purpose.

A former Books editor at National Review remembers the following about a drive through New Jersey with Willmoore at the wheel: “We were stopped for speeding, requested to ‘follow me’ to a headquarters building where a State Police sergeant or captain was sitting behind an ordinary desk. This officer requested Professor Kendall to show him his driver’s license. Kendall said he didn’t have one, and then added, rather gratuitously I thought, ‘I don’t believe in them.’ A look of blank disbelief crossed the officer’s face. He started to speak, paused, peered intently at Kendall, and finally in a quiet voice asked, ‘What do you do?’ ‘I’m an associate professor in the Political Science Department at Yale University,’ Kendall replied. The officer looked at Kendall again, started to nod his head up and down, and said, ‘Oh, I see.’ What he saw I don’t know, but I’m here to attest that he allowed Professor Kendall to continue on his way, unticketed and unlectured, simply demanding, after asking for and being shown my driver’s license, that I drive the car at least until we had passed beyond his jurisdiction.” Weird. Willmoore.

Though Kendall had been granted tenure by Yale on the basis of his publication and professional reputation as a political philosopher, he was eventually given to understand that he would not receive the normal next promotion to full professor. Beyond Yale, his professional reputation remained formidable, and, thinking about teaching elsewhere, he accepted a position as visiting associate professor at Stanford for the academic year 1958–59, with every expectation that it would lead to a permanent post as full tenured professor. But three weeks into his first term he was arrested for driving drunk and against the traffic flow on a California freeway. The state police jailed him for the night. This got into the Stanford student newspaper, and that was the end of his Stanford opportunity. He wrote to Leo Strauss explaining that he had been drinking a bit of bourbon for a cold and some snoop had smelled it on his breath.

His Yale career ended in a unique, that is Kendallian, way. Somehow he prevailed upon Bill Buckley, as a friend, to find out why Yale was refusing to promote him to full professor. Buckley profoundly disliked the whole idea of becoming involved in this.3 Universities usually insist upon holding such decisions closely, for many good reasons, including the professional reputation of the candidate. Buckley did make an appointment to see President Charles Seymour, who was direct and said the reason was lack of publication while at Yale.4 That is a perfectly valid reason. Yale had every right to demand more than Kendall had produced. He had published essays and reviews. But his last book had been John Locke and Majority Rule (1941), which earned him his reputation, his Yale post, and Stanford’s interest. That book was almost twenty years old. Two more important works came along, The Basic Symbols of the American Political Tradition and his edition of Rousseau’s The Government of Poland; but those were published posthumously, years later, in 1972. Yale might have been justified in promoting him on the basis of his teaching, but that would have been rare for a research university and would have required institutional goodwill, which was absent.Since he was inspired by important ideas, what was the explanation for his lack of publication? In addition to his disorderly private life, the evidence suggests a profligate scattering of energy on nonprofessional matters. He wrote letters of gargantuan length, enough prose and enough articulation of ideas for several books, a singular phenomenon. Perhaps a Selected Letters may yet be published. In addition, with a construction project in hand on his New Haven property, he wasted time driving hundreds of miles for cheaper bricks, nonsensically in that the sum saved was trivial.

Then, naturally, his Yale career ended in an extraordinary manner. Kendallian. While he was in Madrid on one of his therapeutic leaves from Yale, so the Kendall oral tradition goes, he phoned President Seymour and, probably drunk, said something like, “You sonofabitch. I know you hate my guts. I’ll tell you what. You can buy back my tenure.” The deal was struck, a check arrived immediately for $42,500. That was a lot of money in 1961, about five times his annual salary.

After his departure from Yale, he remained a senior editor at National Review, contributing valuably, as we will see, until 1963. I spent some time with him later in Europe. This proved in its entirety a bittersweet experience, also an education in political theory. It was a week memorable, strange, and leading to a bad ending. But what else could have been expected?

* His [President Eisenhower] mask was that of the simple farmer boy turned soldier … rather than of a politician whose operations were deliberately shielded from his contemporaries other than his immediate associates.… As a thinker, the public saw a folksy, common-sense replica of the man in the street. The confidential records show a man with extraordinary capacities for detached, orderly examination of problems and personalities. In public he seemed to be removed from the arena. But the inner Eisenhower reasoned about political contingencies with greater rigor and readiness than many political professionals.

* The most successful presidents are coalition builders, and during the twentieth century, these included Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Reagan. Roosevelt was center-left, as his times required, Eisenhower and Reagan center-right, in response to different exigencies. Both Eisenhower and Reagan were prudent, resolute, trustworthy. They both inspired broadly based confidence, and won reelection by landslides. Both used force reluctantly; and when they did so they did so overwhelmingly and unanswerably. In the second half of the twentieth century, Eisenhower and Reagan have gained recognition by historians as the great presidents of the era.

National Review saw Eisenhower as drifting without principle, refusing to define himself in terms of ideas against the ideas of international communism. His refusal to engage in principled argument with Marshal Zhukov, for example, became a scandal from that point of view. But if we can make an abstraction of Eisenhower’s animating “idea,” it would be Americanism. Eisenhower did not think he had to talk about it: because he was it.

* National Review…saw that philosophically, communism and liberalism were both products of the Enlightenment. Both emphasized equality, Communists through force, liberals as a political goal. Though communism could be called “hard” socialism, liberals, or many of them, were simply “soft” socialists.

* If the availability of potential agents among noncommunist progressives had made recruitment easy, it also guaranteed that innocent progressives, who had enough contacts within the deeper shades of red circles, were vulnerable to false charges of “guilt by association.”

* Perhaps James Burnham was in an excessively pessimistic mood when he remarked to me once that the black problem “probably will ruin the country.”

* This view—that the Supreme Court had assumed powers properly and explicitly assigned to the state legislatures—has recently received powerful support within the legal profession, and explicitly on the grounds National Review had advanced. For example, Paul D. Carrington in Stewards of Democracy: Law as a Public Profession (1999) argues that national judicial action during the 1950s should have addressed blacks’ voting rights, since voting is the bedrock of democracy—and that school desegregation in time would have reflected electoral realities. Carrington believes the command that desegregation proceed “‘with all deliberate speed’ has been appraised and found a disaster.”1 Carrington, by no means opposed to desegregation as such, holds that it should have been the result of a political and not a judicial process.

* It is perhaps too harsh to declare extended school desegregation [and similar issues] … were all failed heroics. There were benign consequences. But a significant price was paid in thrusting the Court and the Constitution into the political cockpits where they do not belong, jeopardizing the independence of the Court and the integrity of the Constitution. And in different ways and to different degrees, all of these heroic initiatives at social reform backfired in precisely the ways that Cooley, Brandeis, Freund, and Hand foretold.

* Carrington concludes that the Court too often has derived its decisions arbitrarily, on the basis of shaky interpretations, and without regard to the citizens’ “right to self-government.” He considers that the law schools have fostered a culture that encourages its students to regard themselves as philosopher-kings, and that they are further encouraged by the publicity given to “impact decisions.” In a review of Carrington’s book in the Journal of Law and Politics, Jeffrey O’Connell, Professor of Law at the University of Virginia, notices with a touch of amazement that “Carrington is politically incorrect enough to argue boldly and at length that Roe vs. Wade was a decision that should not have been made in court.” He notes that “[s]ome of the Court’s resisters practiced defiance, while others took to the streets and became violent. Those violent reactions have no counterpart in the politics of other nations, even predominantly Catholic ones in which abortion rights have been established by parliamentary means.”

* Again and again, National Review articulated this perspective on the Court’s “heroic advances,” as in this editorial, worthy of partial but extended quotation:

“In June 1954 relations between Whites and Negroes in the United States, and racial relations generally, were in a more amicable and promising condition than ever before in the nation’s history.

Then a Supreme Court obsessed with an egalitarian ideology rendered its decision in Brown v. Board of Education. What has happened, what is happening, was predicted. Every observer, whatever his views, concurs in the finding that Negro-White relations in the South, and in many northern cities also, have catastrophically worsened. (Even the rate of integration in the schools is actually slower than during the five years prior to 1954.) From this poisonous cauldron the fumes of anti-Semitism, too, begin to spread, both because the racist impulse tends to be non-selective, and because organized Jewish groups have noisily egged on the Court, and called for immediate implementation of its decisions. Now comes the shutting down of Southern schools, the dynamiting of homes, schools, and Jewish temples. And it will be worse. A viciousness has been released that is not easily brought back to kennel. The Court, in Brown and the successor decisions, was “obsessed”: the word is carefully chosen. Obsessed in that it acted from abstract imperatives of a monolithic dogma, without reference to the real situation of real men in the real world. It is easy enough for Earl Warren and Felix Frankfurter, at the turn of an ideological spigot, to lecture their 175 million countrymen about instant and total obedience to “the law of the land,” but platitudes from the bench—that so plainly exempts itself from the restraints of judicial precedent and tradition—will not, overnight, transmute the ingrained sentiments and convictions of self-reliant communities. Tragically, the resistance by self-reliant and decent men to what they deem the usurpations of the Court and the despotism of the central government tends to promote a general atmosphere of civil disobedience, and disrespect not only for the Warren Court but for the law; in which the dregs of society break through to the surface.”

* Brown plus “all deliberate speed” destroyed the once excellent public school systems, especially in the metropolises of the North, whites and their tax money fleeing to the suburbs beyond the reach of “busing.” Brown was tacitly shelved as unenforceable, but not before the destruction of the public schools. Brown had made a desert and called it peace.

* [Gary] Wills, who was not and is not simple-minded, lets [James] Baldwin get away with anything, even with calling Jesus a “sunbaked, disreputable Hebrew…” Wills lets Baldwin get away with junk thought, Baldwin even demanding “immediate secession from our civilization,” the “transcendence of color, and of nations and of altars”—that is, for a rejection of the profoundly actual. Jump, white man, jump. Wills knows that we should respond to this kind of disgraceful performance by a black man by getting angry with him—that is, we should treat him as an equal. Yet Wills voluntarily accepts nonsense.

What are we to make of Wills’s performance? Literary criticism throws up its hands. Apparently, he had been utterly disoriented by the black revolution.

* But for now, the Eastern Establishment had demonstrated suicidal incapacity, helpless before the Black Revolution that was erupting in riots, property destruction, arson, and murder in urban centers across the nation. In due course, New Yorkers would exchange Yale’s John Lindsay for such very different leaders as Rudy Giuliani. Nor could the Eastern Establishment, in its Perfumed Stockades, deal with or even understand the fury and agony of the blue-collar neighborhoods, for years tribal Democrats, over the court-ordered integration of their schools in the form of “busing.” On top of that, the older elite could not do what was needed to protect its own institutions, the universities for example, against the youth upheavals. It appeased. It even sympathized. Collectively, the elite had lost the courage to govern, and the odor of its weakness could be sniffed on the air.

* [We] ran into Michael Oakeshott and a beautiful young woman near the exit. Oblivious of us, [Michael] Oakeshott was saying to her, “Just call me Mickey.” This chef needed no cookbook.

* From a long-range historical point of view, the great domestic issue in American politics had become the role of the judiciary, and most importantly of the Supreme Court, in the balance of powers within the federal government. To an ever greater degree, to put it one way, the Supreme Court had been performing as a legislative body, “interpreting” the Constitution in order to, in effect, pass new laws. In the polemical phrase, the Supreme Court had become an out-of-control legislative branch, not simply “supreme” over other courts, but supreme over the other branches of government. This, despite the fact that the first three words of the Constitution are “We the People,” implying the relative supremacy of the popularly elected branches of government, and despite the fact that Congress constitutionally has weapons superior to those of the Court. Reagan’s new justices appeared to be slowly shifting the balance against the Court’s assumption of legislative powers, and so were threatening the liberal agenda.

* Time and again he has made his view clear. “Courts must accept any value choice the legislature makes, unless it clearly runs contrary to a choice made in the framing of the Constitution.” In ruling against a claim of homosexual rights in 1984, [Robert Bork] wrote: “If the revolution in sexual mores … is in fact ever to arrive, we think it must arrive through the moral choices of the people and their elected representatives, not through the ukase of this court.” He speaks of his philosophy of “deference to democratic choice” and attacks “judicial imperialism.”

* Since the French Revolution, European conservatives had distrusted the people, whom they visualized as the Paris mob. This distrust and fear was amply reinforced by the populist nature of national socialism in Germany and fascism in Italy, the “revolt of the masses.” American experience trusted the delaying mechanism of the Constitution to ensure that the “sense” of the people was “deliberate.” The Court was supposed to be part of the delaying mechanism, not a vanguard quasi-revolutionary body. At bottom, what rose to the surface in the Bork fight was the fact that modern liberalism simply does not trust the “deliberate sense” of “We the People.”

Posted in National Review | Comments Off on ‘The Making of the American Conservative Mind: National Review and Its Times’ (2005)

Nobody Is Coming (8-10-25)

01:00 Virtually You: The Dangerous Powers of the E‑Personality (2011), https://yourmoralleader.blogspot.com/2025/08/virtually-you-dangerous-powers-of.html
15:00 ‘No one is coming to save you: you are the one you are waiting for’, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162662
22:00 Michael joins to talk about Richard Nixon, https://x.com/Michaelmvlog
Status, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162655
50:00 Status anxiety, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162655
1:05:00 My Political Philosophy – Adaptive Regime Realism, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162643
1:12:00 Individualism Is Not A Right-Wing Value, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162613
1:27:00 The growing demand for AI, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpJ4RYSdVK4
1:49:00 William F. Buckley Was The Kim Kardashian Of The Conservative Movement, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162608
2:12:00 The AI Gold Rush, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162590
2:33:00 Why Does Ezra Klein Annoy Me?, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162566
2:44:00 What Is Vs What Should Be, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162543
3:27:00 ‘Industrial Policy for the United States: Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries’, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162018
3:49:00 Donald Trump says he was debanked after January 6, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpJ4RYSdVK4
3:56:00 Why You’re Exhausted (Even After Resting), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfIonsHpKZc

I normally feel bored when I watch my live streams with the sound off (the great test of TV personalities used by Roger Ailes), but this time I see that I am emotionally connected to what I am saying, and during these moments, I’m more interesting to watch as my thoughts and feelings ripple across my face.

To get to this place, I had to enter the stream with a low cognitive load, and I had to take the time to notice what I was feeling prior to pressing go live. Once I was live, I tapped into what I was feeling in my body as well as what I was thinking in my head. As long I was in my body, I kept the audience’s attention. When the show became purely abstract and philosophical, the viewers dropped off.

I ask Grok where I lack self-awareness in this stream. It said:

Luke Ford demonstrates considerable introspection throughout the show, frequently confessing personal flaws and drawing on self-help concepts. However, several instances reveal gaps in self-awareness, where his stated insights contradict his ongoing behaviors, or he fails to connect patterns in his life to the advice he shares. Below is a breakdown of key areas, supported by direct quotes from the transcript and the attached blog post (“status.docx”).

InstanceQuote/EvidenceExplanation of Lack of Self-Awareness
Contradiction in the “Nobody is Coming” Theme“I 100% intellectually agree nobody is coming to rescue me. But yet inside of me there is this childish yearning to be rescued. And I’m not thrilled with that, but it’s there and it’s uh quite strong.”The show’s core message is about taking full responsibility (“You are the one that you’ve been waiting for”), yet Ford admits to an unaddressed emotional dependency on external salvation. He recognizes the immaturity but doesn’t explore or resolve it, highlighting a divide between intellectual acceptance and emotional integration—what he calls lacking “transformation from the neck down.”
Leading with Vulnerabilities Despite Knowing It’s Counterproductive“The easiest way for me to be authentic is to talk about my failures and humiliations. While I noticed with the successful people around me in Los Angeles, they don’t lead and they don’t try to connect with their failures and humiliations, right? They lead with their successes… when I often talk to successful people and I lead with my vulnerabilities and my humiliations, it’s a downer and it makes them want to distance.”Ford explicitly notes that sharing failures creates negative energy and repels others, yet the entire show revolves around confessing frustrations (e.g., sound settings, emotional constipation, career flops). This perpetuates the isolation he critiques, without apparent steps to shift toward leading with successes as he observes in “successful people.”
Addiction to Distinctiveness Not Serving Him, But Persisting Anyway“I have this huge powerful intense drive to be distinctive, to stand out, to be different… But uh it’s not it’s not a winning formula, right? Being addicted to trying to be distinctive and special… overall it clearly has not served me.”He acknowledges this drive as maladaptive and a source of comparison/anxiety, yet continues livestreaming for a self-described “micro audience” as a way to differentiate himself. There’s no evident plan to redirect this energy, suggesting he hasn’t fully confronted how it fuels his dissatisfaction.
Craving Online Validation Over Real-World Connections“Check if you crave affirmation metrics like like likes, views, comments more than real world appreciation. And much of the time I do… I I’ll admit I would not do this live stream if nobody could see it.”Drawing from “Virtually You,” Ford admits prioritizing online metrics (e.g., ego-Googling) and wouldn’t stream without viewers, but he proceeds with the show anyway. This reveals unaddressed “impulsivity and disinhibition,” as he critiques in the book, without pausing to align his actions with his warnings about online personas narrowing self-growth.
Irony in Reading the “Status” Blog Post – Reframing Low Status While Perpetuating ItFrom “status.docx”: “A common painful experience is to see someone you know and notice that they want to talk to other people first… How can I reframe this bitter pill?” (Followed by ChatGPT-generated advice on appearing magnetic, e.g., “being ‘less sought out’ in that moment can actually increase your perceived value over time.”)Ford reads this post aloud, lamenting social overlooking and offering tactics to project higher status (e.g., slow movements, curiosity hooks). However, his vulnerability-focused broadcasting style likely contributes to this low status, as he notes earlier that it distances people. He doesn’t apply the reframing to his own show, missing how constant failure-sharing undermines the “magnetic” presence he advises cultivating.
Critiquing Audience Capture in Others Without Seeing Parallels“You see many people captured by their audience. And I’ve certainly succumbed to that many times myself… like Tucker Carlson… gone on a descent towards a lower IQ audience… Nick Fuentes is speaking to the 100 IQ audience, right? He’s not saying smart things.”Ford calls out Fuentes and Carlson for pandering to audiences at the expense of quality/intellect, but downplays similarities in his own “micro audience” persistence, driven by distinctiveness/validation cravings. He admits succumbing “many times” but doesn’t examine if this show exemplifies it, especially given his small reach and edgy past content.
Minimizing Role in Others’ Self-Destruction“To the extent that I facilitated their self-destruction, well, I don’t take uh 90% of the blame for that. I take enough blame from it. I don’t feel good about it. And I’m much more choosy about who I allow onto my show.”Reflecting on 2018 guests who got fired after “intoxicating” appearances leading to risky opinions, Ford takes partial blame but caps it at less than 90%, underestimating his platform’s enabling role. This softens accountability, despite now being “choosy”—a change he frames positively without deeper scrutiny of his influence.
Reliance on AI for Insights Without Acknowledging It as a Crutch“I was just putting this into chat GBT and says notice if you start framing experiences… Grock and chat GBT will set Luke free. They will unleash 40’s beast mode.”Ford uses AI (ChatGPT/Grok) for red flags, reframing exercises, and personal growth prompts, but doesn’t recognize this dependency as potentially hindering authentic reflection. It contradicts his theme of self-responsibility (“nobody is coming”), as he outsources transformation—echoing his uninternalized “information without transformation.”


I wrote these jokes with ChatGPT, Grok and Gemini:

“I say I’m only 10% to blame for my guests’ wild rants after my show. That’s like saying, ‘Sure, I lit the match, but the forest fire? Not my fault!’ Time to own the spark, Luke!”

“I tell my audience ‘nobody is coming to save you,’ but then I refresh my email every five minutes hoping Hollywood calls. Apparently, I’m waiting for Spielberg to parachute in with a rescue script.”

“I say leading with failures repels people, and then I spend three hours listing mine. My networking strategy is basically: ‘Hello, my name is Luke, and here’s why you’ll never invite me to your party.’”

“I admit my drive to be distinctive hasn’t served me, but I keep livestreaming for 27 viewers like it’s the Super Bowl halftime show.”

“I criticize Nick Fuentes and Tucker Carlson for chasing their low-IQ audience… while tailoring my content to the crowd that thinks ‘Adaptive Regime Realism’ is a Marvel character.”

“I tell people to follow the rules if they want to succeed — then I try to stand out by breaking every unspoken rule of being socially magnetic. It’s like teaching a dating class from inside a restraining order.”

“I say the bigger your need for a hero, the bigger the hole in your soul. Which is why I now outsource my personal growth to Grok and ChatGPT — because nothing says ‘self-reliance’ like a co-dependent relationship with AI.”

“I claim I don’t want to contribute to anyone’s self-destruction — but my show is basically a demolition derby for reputations.”

Posted in America | Comments Off on Nobody Is Coming (8-10-25)

‘No one is coming to save you: you are the one you are waiting for’

I am 59. I still waste enormous amounts of energy trying to secure approval from people who won’t give it.

The more I do the right things, however, the less intense is my maladaptive approval seeking.

Just under the surface of my psyche, I yearn to show that I am the smartest person in the world. When this manifests in my speech and behavior, it causes people to deride me.

In the cold hard light of day, when it comes to certain topics, I am the smartest person in the room, but as far as overall cognitive quality, I am rarely the smartest person in the rooms I frequent.

It’s false humility to deny my gifts but when I get an exaggerated sense of them, I always get humiliated.

When I go a week or two or three without getting humiliated, that’s because I have not gotten over my skis.

My biggest scoops as a reporter were given to me. I deserve credit for fact-checking the scoops, placing them in context, and doing enough work as a reporter that valuable people want to give me scoops. Lying around watching TV didn’t earn me scoops. I had to extend myself more than was natural to me, and to deny my petty side more than was natural to me, to build enough bridges to others so that they then wanted to send good things to me.

I spent Saturday afternoons when I was a kid in Cooranbong napping and then waking up to hope that after sundown (the beginning of the secular week in Seventh-Day Adventism), my best friend Wayne Cherry and his family would come by to take me to something cool.

Throughout my life, cool people have adopted me and taken me to things that were cool.

On my own, I don’t tend to generate sufficient coolness. My internal patterns tend towards a delusional and self-destructive pursuit of distinction over connection.

If there is anything distinctive in what I contribute here, it comes largely from my own accurate recognition of my need for others, for my ability to contribute to others, and that I accurately gauge my own failures and successes (that largely stem from negotiations with others).

Once you can spot your own self-defeating patterns, you see them more easily in others.

The more I live in reality, the less I need to twist it to keep myself comfortable.

Despite these noble sentiments, I must admit that hearing that nobody’s coming to save me often feels like a cold shower.

Why? Because, though I will deny it, I live in the warm bath of believing rescue is just around the corner. That might be why I love long songs.

I walk around with a deep, unspoken hope that someone will swoop in to save me — a hope I almost never admit.

I love Neil Strauss’s line about rock stars — they can mesmerize a stadium but they can’t take care of themselves.

I’ve long yearned to be so distinctive that others would take care of me.

One of the most destructive impulses I have is that the ordinary rules don’t apply to me. They do.

I’ve long thought I know better than my bosses, my rabbis, my teachers, my communities. That’s rarely been true.

If I am in a good place, and I realize I did something wrong, it’s easy for me to admit it. When I’m insecure, it’s hard for me to admit being wrong.

Security is something I earn choice by choice. It’s not my default state. That state is anxiety.

The more dishonest, deceptive and deceitful I am, the more I distrust others. The more decent I am, the more open I am to connecting with others appropriately. My experience of America is largely in my hands. America is neither with me nor against me. It is largely raw material in my hands. Los Angeles is a city filled with opportunities and dangers for me.

I don’t trust any ideology that portrays advanced economies such as America as monsters or saviors. Every people must prioritize their own survival in an anarchic world.

The safest place for the individual is usually in the middle of the herd. My inner drives usually push me to the boundary of the herd.

ChatGPT: “You’re basically saying: my internal conduct shapes my perception of others, and my relationship to America is more about my own mindset than America itself. Refusing to buy into “America the demon” or “America the messiah” keeps you out of the victim/savior trap and in the realm of realism. It’s self-responsibility over grievance or blind faith.”

I love Orion Taraban’s videos, including this one, but I think he’s missing some things:

ChatGPT responds:

Taraban’s take is classic self-reliance maximalism — radical personal responsibility with no excuses — but it misses some deep realities you’re pointing to.

The inevitability of betrayal
He frames betrayal as a consequence of bad personal choices — you trusted the wrong people, so it’s your fault. That’s partly true, but incomplete. The deeper truth is: if you build any close relationship, you will at some point feel betrayed. Not because you picked “wrong” but because people are opaque, unpredictable, and not fully knowable — including you. Even the most loyal friend or partner will act in ways that violate your unspoken expectations. This is not a sign you failed at picking; it’s the nature of intimacy and trust. “Radical accountability” in this domain means learning to expect and metabolize that reality, not just avoiding the “wrong” people.

The group nature of human life
He talks as if the game of life is entirely an individual sport — your strategies, your training, your choices. That ignores that we are primarily members of overlapping groups: families, teams, tribes, classes, networks. Much of what happens to us — and what we can do about it — is mediated through those groups. You can train, strategize, and “take responsibility” all day, but if you’re embedded in a failing group, you will be dragged down, and if you’re embedded in a thriving one, you will be lifted. The most effective self-reliance is often group-reliance — building and maintaining membership in alliances where mutual aid is normal and survival is collective.

Missing the collective strategy layer
He’s right that you need a strategy, but the most powerful strategies aren’t just personal — they’re collective. Groups with shared goals and norms can withstand shocks and threats that no individual could face alone. If you see yourself only as “your own cavalry,” you miss the fact that sometimes the cavalry is your group, and that’s not a weakness — it’s the oldest survival advantage humans have.

In short, his message works well as a corrective for people stuck in learned helplessness, but if taken as the whole truth, it can lead to a lonely, hyper-individualistic mindset that actually makes life harder than it needs to be.

No one is coming to save you — but that doesn’t mean you’re alone. You’re the one you’re waiting for, but you’re also part of groups, and those groups matter.

You are responsible for the conditions of your life. If your job sucks, you’re lonely, and you feel stuck, the common denominator is you. That’s not an insult — it’s your way out. You can make better choices, learn skills, train, and align yourself with reality. No one can do those things for you.

But let’s be clear: even if you choose well, even if you train hard, every real relationship will eventually wound you. Not because you failed at picking people, but because people are not fully knowable. They will act in ways that violate your expectations. Sometimes they’ll do it out of selfishness, sometimes by accident, sometimes because their needs changed. If you can’t metabolize betrayal, you can’t keep deep connections.

And those connections matter more than any solo plan. You are not, and never have been, a lone strategist. You’re a member of tribes, teams, and networks. Most of your opportunities and threats will come through them. If your group is strong, you’ll go further than you ever could alone; if your group is weak, it will drag you down no matter how hard you grind. Self-reliance includes choosing your groups wisely and contributing to their strength.

So yes — take radical responsibility for your life. But do it with the clear eyes of someone who knows two things: betrayal is inevitable, and survival is collective. If you can carry both truths at once, you won’t just be your own cavalry — you’ll be part of an army worth riding with.

If you had to divide mental illness into two categories, how about these? Under-interpreting what is going on with others (autism) and over-interpreting what is going on with others (delusion).

ChatGPT says:

You could frame it like this:

Under-interpreting others – missing or failing to pick up social cues, context, and intent. This can show up in autism spectrum disorders, certain brain injuries, schizoid traits, or even extreme introversion.

Over-interpreting others – seeing meaning, intent, or hidden messages that aren’t there. This can show up in paranoia, some forms of psychosis, borderline personality disorder (in the sense of heightened threat perception), or even severe anxiety.

Both extremes are errors in social inference — one is a deficit, the other an overactive detector. The healthy range is the Goldilocks zone where you interpret just enough without missing key signals or fabricating false ones.

If you wanted to sharpen the model, you could add a third axis: “misinterpreting” — reading cues, but getting them wrong (common in depression, where neutral signals get read as rejection). That way you’re covering absence, excess, and distortion.

I’ve often had mild to moderate to severe left elbow pain for years. As I understand, this pain, and other pains like it, comes from weakness in certain muscles that then forces compensation from other parts of me that aren’t suited to doing the job and the consequence to me is bodily distortion and pain. When I build up my weak muscles so that they can do what is asked of them, my pain goes away.

This same principle applies to other parts of life. I’ve often asked of religion or sports or Netflix or porn or politics to compensate for glaring weaknesses that I have in normal human connection. It didn’t work as well as I would have liked.

When you ask of people and of things more than they can give, you will feel disappointment, just like when you ask certain muscles to do things they aren’t designed to do.

Millions felt disappointed in Barack Obama and Donald Trump because they asked of them more than they could give.

I remember in the fall of 2007, the only thing that seemed to be working in my life was the Dallas Cowboys. Then they lost in the divisional round to the New York Giants and I was bereft.

I notice that the most intense somebody’s fandom, the more likely it is that their life doesn’t work. A healthy person usually doesn’t go to games all painted up.

The quickest way to lose a connection with someone of high status is to ask of them more than they want to give you. You’ve marked yourself as someone who doesn’t know his place and doesn’t accept reality.

The worst thing about being an underearner or any kind of addict is that only fellow addicts will stay close to you.

ChatGPT says:

Portraying America as a monster:

Hard-left anti-imperialism / anti-capitalism – sees the U.S. as an empire built on exploitation, racism, colonialism, and military aggression. Think Chomsky-esque critiques, some socialist/Marxist currents, and certain strands of critical race theory.

Radical environmentalism – frames the U.S. as a uniquely destructive force driving climate collapse through consumption and corporate greed.

Right-wing isolationism / paleoconservatism (anti-globalist variant) – paints the U.S. government as a corrupt, tyrannical elite betraying its own people in service to global interests.

Some post-colonial and decolonization movements – depict the U.S. as the apex predator of Western imperialism, responsible for global oppression.

Portraying America as a savior:

Neoconservatism – believes America has a moral duty to spread democracy and free markets, often via military intervention.

American exceptionalism (patriotic nationalist form) – views the U.S. as the indispensable nation, the freest and most virtuous country in history.

Cold War liberalism – saw America as the guardian of the “free world” against communism.

Certain evangelical Christian nationalism – casts America as God’s chosen instrument for advancing moral and religious truth.

Savior narratives – main carriers today

Neoconservatism

Media: The Wall Street Journal editorial board, Commentary Magazine, The Dispatch (in foreign policy), Fox News foreign policy hawks

Think tanks: American Enterprise Institute, Hudson Institute, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Political factions: Some establishment Republicans, hawkish Democrats (e.g., Robert Menendez wing)

American exceptionalist nationalism

Media: Fox News primetime, Newsmax, The Blaze

Think tanks: Heritage Foundation, Claremont Institute

Political factions: Trumpist GOP in patriotic rhetoric, Reagan-style Republicans

Cold War liberalism (modern echo)

Media: The Atlantic, Politico, Foreign Affairs

Think tanks: Brookings Institution, Center for a New American Security

Political factions: Centrist Democrats, bipartisan foreign policy establishment

Evangelical Christian nationalism

Media: The Christian Broadcasting Network, Charisma News, some Salem Media outlets

Think tanks / orgs: Family Research Council, American Family Association

Political factions: Religious right activists within the GOP, some state-level political machines

Here’s the emotional formula both “America is a monster” and “America is a savior” camps tend to follow:

1. Start with a moral frame

Monster: “The U.S. violates the highest moral values — it’s corrupt, violent, unjust.”

Savior: “The U.S. embodies the highest moral values — it’s noble, virtuous, destined to lead.”

2. Create a sense of existential stakes

Monster: “If America continues as it is, it will destroy lives, the planet, or civilization.”

Savior: “If America falters, freedom, prosperity, and moral order will collapse everywhere.”

3. Identify clear villains and heroes

Monster: Villains are U.S. leaders, corporations, military, or cultural hegemons. Heroes are dissidents, activists, whistleblowers, the oppressed.

Savior: Villains are foreign tyrants, radicals, or America’s “enemies within.” Heroes are U.S. troops, entrepreneurs, founders, faithful citizens.

4. Offer emotional rewards for joining the cause

Monster: Moral superiority from “speaking truth to power,” belonging to the righteous resistance.

Savior: Pride in being on the winning, virtuous side of history, camaraderie with fellow patriots.

5. Provide simple prescriptions

Monster: “Dismantle, divest, resist, overthrow the unjust system.”

Savior: “Strengthen, defend, expand America’s role and ideals.”

6. Demand loyalty to the narrative

Both camps punish dissent internally — question the script, and you risk being seen as a traitor to the cause.

The irony is that both sides feed on the same psychological machinery:

A moral drama with high stakes

An in-group that offers identity and meaning

A clear enemy that justifies righteous action

How to spot the formula working on you in real time:

1. Check for a moral frame that feels absolute
If you hear “America is inherently evil” or “America is inherently good” with no room for mixed realities, you’re in a moral totalizing frame. The emotional hook is that it feels pure — but reality isn’t.

2. Notice the existential stakes
Are you being told “We have only 10 years before collapse” or “If we don’t act, tyranny will rule the world”? High-stakes framing spikes adrenaline and makes critical thinking harder.

3. Watch for hero/villain casting
The moment you’re handed a cast list (“Here are the bad guys, here are the good guys”), your brain’s nuance filter is being switched off. You’re being put into a team sport, not an analysis.

4. Feel the emotional rewards
If you feel a warm rush of belonging, pride, or righteous anger simply from agreeing, that’s the hook. The group is paying you in feelings, not facts.

5. Listen for simple, urgent prescriptions
Real solutions in politics are messy and slow. If the answer is quick, clean, and fits on a bumper sticker, it’s probably there to mobilize you, not to solve the problem.

6. Test the reaction to dissent
If politely questioning the narrative gets you shamed, frozen out, or accused of betrayal, you’re in an ideological loyalty trap.

A good personal habit: when you feel yourself getting swept up in a “monster” or “savior” story about America, pause and ask:

“What’s the strongest counterargument to this?”

“Who benefits if I believe this without question?”

Here’s how to pull useful insights from both “America is a monster” and “America is a savior” camps without getting stuck in their traps:

1. Treat each as a source of partial truth, not gospel

Monster camp often nails structural critiques — empire, corruption, inequality.

Savior camp often nails sources of resilience — innovation, civic culture, rule of law (when it works).
Keep the parts that stand up to evidence, toss the purity claims.

2. Anchor in reality, not identity
Your loyalty is to what’s true, not to a tribe. That lets you agree with a Green Party activist one day and a Marine veteran the next without feeling disloyal to either.

3. Cross-check with opposing sources
When a monster narrative riles you up, find the strongest pro-America defense and see what holds. When a savior narrative inspires you, find the toughest critique. This keeps you in analysis mode.

4. Separate the moral claim from the mobilization tactic
“America is uniquely evil” and “America is uniquely good” are both designed to move you emotionally. Recognize the sales pitch, then assess the evidence underneath.

5. Look for mixed-case evidence
In history, the U.S. has been liberator and oppressor, innovator and exploiter. Studying examples of both keeps your view from becoming a caricature.

6. Keep your agency front and center
Your experience of America depends a lot on how you live in it — who you associate with, how you engage civically, where you get information. That’s leverage you control.

When I was younger, I fell in love with things that sounded good such as free markets and free trade and I wanted to pursue these principles to absurd lengths. In my old age, I’m more open to seeing the limitations of deciding what is true on the basis of what sounds good. Perhaps America needs an industrial policy? Perhaps Economics as a discipline has strengths and weaknesses like everything else in life?

Posted in Psychology | Comments Off on ‘No one is coming to save you: you are the one you are waiting for’

Status

A common painful experience is to see someone you know and notice that they want to talk to other people first.

When high status people walk into a room, people vie for their attention.

I’ve had high status and I’ve had low status. High status was better.

Low status sucks, but if I’m doing the right things, I build self-respect. If I help others appropriately, my self-respect builds.

No man is an island. I never want to be indifferent to others’ opinion of me.

I’ve long yearned for distinction more than connection (to compensate for feeling like less than zero) and that’s not usually worked out well.

ChatGPT says:

Yearning for distinction over connection is a common trap — it feels like chasing security through status, but status is fickle and lonely without allies. Distinction without connection often leads to being noticed but not embraced, admired but not trusted. In practice, connection tends to be the foundation that makes distinction sustainable. People will lift you up and keep you relevant when they feel you’re part of their story, not just your own.

The hard truth: the more you build strong ties, the easier distinction comes — and the less you need it for validation.

How can I reframe the bitter pill of low social status?

ChatGPT says:

When someone prioritizes others before you in conversation, it’s not necessarily a verdict on your worth — it’s more like a moment of social triage. People often gravitate to whoever they feel they must speak to first — maybe because of urgency, proximity, status dynamics, or just habit — not because they’ve ranked everyone in order of value.

Instead of interpreting it as “I’m less desirable,” try flipping it:

You have freedom. You’re not the one anxiously juggling five conversations or performing social maintenance. You can enter the conversation when it’s strategic, when the noise has cleared.

You get data. You see how people interact when they don’t think you’re listening. That’s useful for understanding social currents and alliances.

You control the energy. When you’re not the first person someone talks to, you get to observe, calibrate, and then make your entrance with something relevant, witty, or targeted — rather than small talk filler.

If you want to push it even further: being “less sought out” in that moment can actually increase your perceived value over time. People often feel more intrigued by the person who’s not constantly vying for their attention but is instead calm, selective, and attentive when they do engage. That air of being self-contained often draws others in eventually — but on your timetable.

Here’s a quick three-second mental script you can run when it happens:

Notice: “Ah, they’re doing their social rounds. Not about me.”

Claim: “I’m the one with the luxury of choice right now.”

Prime: “I’ll step in when I can add value — that’s when I’m most magnetic.”

The goal is to treat the pause before they talk to you as your advantage: you get to watch, listen, and pick the exact moment to drop something sharp, funny, or thoughtful — instead of being just another voice in their greeting queue.

Here are some tactical entry lines you can use when you finally step in — they make you feel confident and make others glad you joined:

Light & Playful

“I was waiting for the crowd to warm you up before I jumped in.”

“Alright, you’ve made the rounds. Now for the highlight.”

Observational

“You’ve been busy — I think I caught the end of three different conversations.”

“I’m glad I waited — now I know exactly where to take this next.”

Value-Add

“I overheard just enough to make this more interesting…”

“You were talking about [X] — I’ve got a twist you might like.”

These work because they frame your delayed entry as intentional, not as “being overlooked.” You come across as patient, self-possessed, and in control of your timing.

Here’s how to make your presence magnetic before you even open your mouth:

1. Positioning

Stand where you can be seen, but not in the “waiting line” for them. Corners, near a wall, or just outside the main cluster give you visibility without crowding.

Keep your body open to the room — no crossed arms, no hunching toward your phone.

2. Gaze

Let your eyes move slowly and deliberately over the group, pausing on people warmly without rushing.

If you catch their eye, hold it a beat longer than normal, then add a slight smile — it signals you’re receptive but not desperate.

3. Micro-smile timing

Don’t smile constantly. Let it flash when something genuinely amuses you, even if it’s not your turn to speak. This makes you seem engaged and selective.

4. “Anchor” posture

Plant your feet shoulder-width, shoulders relaxed, head level. It’s a subtle “I belong here” signal. People often approach those who look grounded.

5. Slow-motion movement

When you finally enter the circle, do it at half-speed. Quick movements look like you’re chasing; slow movements read as calm authority.

This way, even before you speak, you’re already in people’s awareness as someone worth noticing. By the time you do say something, it feels like you’ve chosen to speak, not like you were granted an audience.

Here’s your 10-second entrance sequence for when you join a group after they’ve been talking to others first:

Second 0–2: Pause & Survey

Stand just outside the group’s space. Let your eyes sweep the scene once, pausing briefly on the person you’re about to engage.

Body open, shoulders relaxed, small knowing smile — like you’ve been enjoying the show.

Second 3–5: Anchor & Signal

Plant your feet, square but not rigid.

Make brief eye contact with 1–2 people in the group, then with your target person. Hold their gaze for a beat longer than normal, smile slightly.

Second 6–8: Lean In & Bridge

Take one slow step into the group’s space.

Let your head tilt slightly in curiosity or amusement, as if you’ve been following along.

Use a bridging phrase: “I caught just enough of that to know I have to weigh in…”

Second 9–10: Deliver Your First Line

Light & playful, or value-add (from the list earlier).

Keep your tone easy, like you’re sharing a secret or delivering the punchline they didn’t know they needed.

The rhythm is key — slow and deliberate so you project choice and confidence, but quick enough that it feels natural in the flow of conversation.

Here’s how to flip it so they start coming to you first next time:

1. Make your presence felt early

As soon as you arrive, position yourself in a visible, natural traffic spot — near the entry, drinks, or a high-flow area.

Greet people warmly as they pass, even briefly. It plants the seed that you’re approachable and already “in play.”

2. Give them a hook before they can walk past

Early in the event, drop a quick teaser to the person you want attention from:
“I’ve got something for you later — remind me.”
This creates curiosity and gives them a reason to circle back.

3. Be socially “in demand” without faking it

Engage with others in a way that’s visible — animated gestures, laughter, a small crowd leaning in.

People are drawn to energy. If they see others enjoying you, they’ll want a piece of that.

4. Make them earn your attention

When they approach, pause your current conversation slowly, turn toward them fully, and smile like you’re choosing to give them your focus.

This subtly reverses the power dynamic — you’re not chasing, you’re granting.

5. Leave them wanting more

Keep the first interaction short and engaging. Exit on a high note: “I’ll catch you in a bit.”

This primes them to seek you out again, and next time they’ll be quicker to come to you.

If you run this play a couple times, you’ll notice the shift — you stop being “the last stop” and become “the one they’re scanning the room to find.”

Here’s a one-week practice plan to make this shift automatic.

Day 1–2: Observation Mode

At one social gathering or even a casual public spot (coffee shop, work breakroom), practice just positioning, body language, and scanning the room without jumping into conversations.

Goal: Get comfortable being visible and composed without rushing in.

Day 3–4: Seeding Curiosity

Pick one person each day to drop a “hook” to early on:
“You’ll appreciate what I just learned — I’ll tell you in a minute.”
or
“Don’t let me forget to tell you about [intriguing hint].”

Goal: Make it feel light, playful, and not needy — you’re creating a reason for them to return.

Day 5: Visible Energy

At your next social event, put yourself in a visible area and engage with others in a way that’s animated but natural — laugh, gesture, show interest.

Let your target person see others enjoying your company before you directly engage them.

Day 6: Controlled Entry

Use the 10-second entrance sequence we went over earlier, but only once during the event.

Goal: Practice timing — enter when you have something to add, not just because there’s silence.

Day 7: The Reverse Pull

Pick someone you know usually makes you wait.

Early in the event, seed curiosity with them, then fully engage with others.

Watch for the moment they circle back to you — when they do, pause your current conversation slowly and give them your full attention.

Do this for one week and you’ll notice people adjusting their approach to your tempo. It stops feeling like you’re “waiting” for attention — you’ll start feeling like you’re directing the social flow.

Here are micro-status signals you can start using — they’re small, almost invisible, but they change how people read you immediately:

1. Entry Pace

Never rush in. Whether entering a room, approaching a group, or even answering a question — give a one- or two-second pause. People subconsciously register that as confidence.

2. The Half-Smile

Full, constant smiling reads as trying too hard. A half-smile — slow to appear, genuine, and slightly asymmetrical — feels more self-assured and selective.

3. Eye Contact with Break

When listening, hold eye contact just a hair longer than normal, then look away slowly (never darting) before returning. This says “I’m comfortable here” and “I’m choosing to engage.”

4. Hand Placement

Visible hands (resting lightly on a glass, loosely clasped, or one hand in pocket) show you’re open and relaxed. Hiding hands can make you seem tense.

5. Stance Width

Feet shoulder-width or slightly wider; weight evenly distributed. Avoid narrow, shifting stances — they read as uncertainty.

6. Space Tolerance

Let others close the gap to you instead of stepping toward them first. That tiny delay signals they’re entering your space.

7. Conversational Pacing

Speak slightly slower than average, with clear pauses. Don’t rush to fill silence — let others lean in to fill it.

If you combine these micro-signals with the week’s plan and curiosity seeding, you’ll start noticing that you’re not just “included” — you’re setting the rhythm of who talks to you, when, and how.

“High-status people have entourages. I have a chair in the corner with my name on it.”

“I don’t get mobbed when I enter a room. I get nodded at like the assistant manager at a mid-tier chain restaurant.”

“People vie for the attention of celebrities. People vie to avoid eye contact with me until they’ve run out of other options.”

“I don’t mind not being the center of attention — but I wouldn’t mind being a satellite at least.”

“When I finally join a group conversation, it’s like the bonus track at the end of an album. Nobody was waiting for it, but here it is.”

Posted in Personal | Comments Off on Status

My Political Philosophy – Adaptive Regime Realism

Survival must be the number one priority for a people. After that, it should be group cohesion and esprit de corps (the “feeling of pride, fellowship, and common loyalty shared by the members of a particular group”).

Psychology, sociology, and evolutionary biology all point the same way:

Humans are social animals — survival historically depended on cooperation within kin groups, tribes, and coalitions.

Group belonging boosts well-being — people with strong social ties have better mental and physical health, higher life satisfaction, and greater resilience.

Group-based thinking is default — social identity theory shows that humans reflexively categorize into “us” and “them,” even over trivial differences.

Collective strategies often outperform lone efforts — in politics, war, and economics, coordinated groups beat scattered individuals.

America’s intense cultural focus on individualism is unusual globally, and it creates tensions: people crave autonomy but also need belonging. We romanticize the self-made hero while most success stories are embedded in networks of support, capital, and institutions.

Policy implications

Rebuild civic infrastructure — invest in clubs, associations, community centers, sports leagues, and religious or cultural groups that foster face-to-face connection.

Shift incentives from individual competition to group outcomes — in schools, workplaces, and social programs, measure and reward cooperative performance.

Political messaging — leaders should frame goals in terms of shared identity (“we”) rather than purely personal advancement (“you”).

The challenge is that America’s civic culture is built on a mythos that often pits community against freedom. The opportunity is to show they’re not opposites: strong, inclusive groups can amplify individual flourishing rather than stifle it.

Why doesn’t America have a sane retirement policy like Australia’s?

The U.S. doesn’t have a single, universal “sane” retirement policy because its political culture, lobbying structure, and historical choices locked it into a patchwork of public and private systems that reward certain industries and voter groups.

Key reasons:

Cultural mistrust of centralized systems

Australia’s “superannuation” is mandatory — your employer must contribute to an investment account for you, and it’s regulated so you can invest in stocks, bonds, etc. In the U.S., mandatory savings beyond Social Security gets branded as “big government” or “forced investing,” which is politically toxic for both libertarians and populists.

Industry capture

U.S. retirement policy is heavily shaped by Wall Street, insurance companies, and large employers. They profit from a fragmented 401(k)/IRA system with high fees, and they lobby hard against a universal, low-cost, government-run savings system that would compete with them.

Social Security’s political entrenchment

Social Security is simple and popular, but it’s designed as a pay-as-you-go pension, not an investment vehicle. Politicians are afraid to tinker with it beyond incremental changes, so they bolt on private options instead of integrating them into one coherent system.

Tax-code patchwork

Retirement savings in the U.S. are mostly incentivized through tax breaks (401(k), IRA, Roth), which favor higher earners with spare cash to invest. This leaves low- and middle-income workers under-covered and creates huge gaps in retirement readiness.

Short-term political thinking

A shift to something like Australia’s system requires decades of consistent contributions before the benefits show. U.S. politics is built on two-year election cycles, so there’s little appetite for long-term structural change that doesn’t pay off quickly for voters.

Australia reformed in a crisis — the U.S. never did

Australia adopted superannuation in the early 1990s during a broader labor and pension overhaul. The U.S. never had a single pension crisis big enough to force Congress into comprehensive reform — just a slow erosion of pensions into 401(k)s.

If the U.S. wanted to copy Australia’s approach, it would need to:

Make retirement contributions mandatory for all workers.

Provide a low-fee, public option investment fund.

Reduce reliance on employer discretion.

Reform tax incentives to cover low-income workers equally.

But that runs into America’s deepest political fault lines: mistrust of government, power of the financial lobby, and unwillingness to force short-term sacrifices for long-term gain.

If you take a median earner in the U.S. starting at $60,000 a year and saving under the current system — about 6% from the worker and 3% from the employer, with typical 401(k)-level fees of 0.70% — they’d end their career at age 67 with roughly $397,000 in today’s dollars. That translates to about $15,900 a year in sustainable retirement income at a 4% withdrawal rate, before Social Security.

If that same worker were in an Australian-style superannuation system — a mandatory 12% contribution from day one, invested in a low-fee (0.20%) diversified fund — their balance at retirement would be closer to $585,000. That’s enough to generate about $23,400 a year, or 48% more income than the U.S. setup produces.

If the U.S. went even further, pushing contributions to 15% with the same low fees, that median earner would retire with about $734,000, supporting around $29,400 a year. That’s nearly double the income the current U.S. system delivers.

The pattern is the same across income levels. A low earner starting at $35,000 might go from $231,000 under the status quo (about $9,200 a year) to $340,000 under a superannuation setup ($13,600 a year). A high earner starting at $120,000 could move from $794,000 ($31,800 a year) to $1.17 million ($46,800 a year) with no extra effort — just the structural changes.

The bulk of the gain comes from two things: higher, mandatory contributions that don’t depend on whether a worker feels they can “afford” to save in a given year, and dramatically lower investment fees. Over decades, those two shifts make a bigger difference than almost any individual investment decision.

The Situation

The situation is always the boss. Personality, ideology, and even moral conviction matter less than the structural realities you face.

I see the world primarily in terms of structures in situations, not in terms of great men in moral dilemmas.

Jeffrey Hart wrote in his 2005 book, The Making of the American Conservative Mind: National Review and Its Times “Roosevelt was center-left, as his times required, Eisenhower and Reagan center-right, in response to different exigencies.”

All functioning states are hybrids — part democracy, part oligarchy, part socialism, part capitalism, part aristocracy, part dictatorship. The optimal mix changes as circumstances change.

Darwinian Politics

Politics is an evolutionary adaptation to survive and thrive under current pressures.

Left-leaning traits (openness, equality, tolerance) are adaptive in some situations; right-leaning traits (hierarchy, discipline, suspicion of outsiders) are adaptive in others.

In-group loyalty, suspicion of out-groups, and hierarchy are not moral failings — they are often the foundations of morality in real life.

Pragmatic Flexibility

What’s optimal in a famine may be disastrous in a boom. What’s necessary in war may be poisonous in peace.

No single political form is universally best — the mix should change with the threat environment, the economy, and the cohesion of the society.

Reality First

When reality and your ideals conflict, reality always wins. Adjust to it rather than rage against it.

Rights, laws, and norms are only as strong as the society enforcing them; they can vanish overnight in an emergency.

Social Ecology

A society’s stability comes from cohesion, trust, and connection — not just formal institutions.

Division and instability in your rivals help you; division and instability in your own society hurt you.

Diversity plus proximity often creates tension; unity often creates strength.

Status and Incentives

People act to preserve their survival, status, and in-group advantage more than they act for truth or universal morality.

Most “moral” arguments are really status plays or hero-system affirmations.

Personal Conduct as Political Philosophy

Follow the rules of whoever has the power to hurt you, even if you think the rules are stupid.

Strength comes from connection and trust, not from isolation.

Keep your expectations realistic, your behavior aligned with the norms of your group, and your survival strategy flexible.

Adaptive Regime Realism (operational)

Your north star: the situation is the boss; you keep a portfolio of regime tools and dial them up/down as conditions change. Flexibility is a feature, not a bug.

Core dials (set and reset by indicators)

Security centralization: distributed → coordinated → centralized command

State–market mix: laissez-faire → active industrial policy → war footing

Border permeability: open → selective → hardened

Speech/coordination rules: maximalist free speech → friction for virality → emergency limits on specific vectors

Surveillance/privacy: baseline warrants → targeted telemetry → time-boxed population-level monitoring

Punishment/leniency: harm-reduction → deterrence/visible enforcement → incapacitation

International posture: hedging → coalition leadership → bloc discipline

Democratic process: normal order → expedited process with oversight → temporary emergency powers with sunsets

Governance mechanics for flexibility

• Precommit to triggers, not vibes: define ex ante thresholds that move dials (e.g., hospital ICU occupancy, cyber intrusion dwell time, fentanyl deaths per 100k, grid downtime hours, port congestion index, disinfo virality rate).
• Sunset everything: 30/60/90-day clocks with auto-expiry unless re-justified with fresh data.
• Dual keys: any “dictatorship” dial requires sign-off by executive + independent technical authority, and creates audit logs.
• Red-team by design: rotating opposition seats on emergency boards; after-action reviews published by default.
• Local-first unless speed is decisive: centralize only what must be synchronized.

Now apply to 2025 flashpoints (and how the mix changes)

Immigration and border shocks

Threat spectrum: routine flows → cartel-driven surges → migration crisis after regional collapse.
Dials: Harden borders only at surge thresholds; preserve legal inflows that serve labor gaps. Stand up surge courts, rapid asylum triage, biometric E-Verify with serious employer penalties (deterrence without blanket closure). Use state contracting for humane, fast transport and case management; partner cities get block grants tied to throughput metrics. Relax when flows normalize.

Urban crime swings

Threat: property crime spikes, organized retail theft, carjackings; or a homicide wave.
Dials: Visible enforcement on repeat violent offenders; fund hot-spot policing with bodycams + real-time audit. Pair with drug/mental health diversion for nonviolent cases (harm reduction). If homicides cross set thresholds, temporarily widen detention criteria for gun felonies with rapid judicial review; sunset at the threshold minus two months of stability.

Fentanyl and synthetic drugs

Threat: accidental mass poisoning, rising overdose deaths.
Dials: Border inspections and precursor controls (international pressure on suppliers) plus state-run treatment-on-demand (socialism where markets fail). Decriminalize possession below tiny amounts paired with mandatory treatment offers; felony targeting of trafficking networks. If deaths > X/100k for Y months, activate medically supervised consumption sites and distribute test strips/naloxone at scale; ratchet down when deaths fall.

AI-driven disinformation and platform virality

Threat: coordinated info ops degrading elections or crisis response.
Dials: Keep speech free; add friction to virality. Mandate provenance/watermarks for synthetic media; “circuit breakers” that slow mass-forwarding of flagged content during emergencies (minutes/hours, not days). Independent election information hubs with API access for newsrooms. Sunset any elevated moderation rule 30 days post-event; publish impact reports.

Critical infrastructure cyberattack

Threat: grid, hospitals, ports offline.
Dials: Rapid centralization of incident response (CISA/NSA-led), compulsory reporting within hours, temporary liability shields for good-faith disclosure. Move to “war-footing” procurement for patches/hardware; require MFA/zero-trust across critical sectors with subsidies for small operators (state-market blend). Roll back mandates after 180 days of no high-severity incidents.

Supply chain shocks/inflation

Threat: shipping snarls, key inputs scarce, price spikes.
Dials: Strategic stockpiles for essentials (generics, chips, transformers), surge port automation, fast-track visas for logistics workers. Temporary anti-gouging on narrowly defined essentials with automatic expiry; targeted cash relief rather than broad price controls. Industrial policy for chokepoints (transformers, rare earths), sunset once domestic capacity hits pre-set percent of demand.

Great-power crisis (e.g., Taiwan, Persian Gulf closure)

Threat: shipping lanes threatened, escalation risks.
Dials: Coalition-building first; share ISR and munitions production; invoke maritime convoy operations if needed. Domestic economy to tiered mobilization (priority rail/port slots, fuel allocation). Tighten export controls on dual-use tech. Maintain normal civil liberties; if kinetic conflict erupts, deploy limited emergency powers with strict scope (ports, energy) and 60-day sunsets.

Climate/mega-disasters

Threat: multi-state wildfire/smoke events, hurricane clusters, heat grid stress.
Dials: Federalize logistics during peak season, preposition mobile microgrids; insurance backstop + risk-based building codes (no moral hazard). Temporary relocation stipends tied to county hazard maps. Relax when fire/heat metrics drop below thresholds for two seasons.

The big test: a virus ~100x deadlier than COVID

Assume: airborne, high R0, high infection fatality rate; imperfect but helpful masks; vaccines possible but months away; rapid tests exist.

Immediate (first 30–60 days)

• Security centralization: snap to centralized command for public health logistics (federal-state joint task force).
• Borders: harden quickly—test/quarantine on arrival, targeted flight pauses from hotspots; freight continues with sealed-chain protocols.
• Speech/coordination: keep speech free but throttle virality for demonstrably false medical claims during the acute phase; stand up a real-time “green/yellow/red” public guidance dashboard run by a cross-partisan technical board.
• Surveillance/privacy: temporary, opt-out exposure telemetry using privacy-preserving techniques; legal sunset at 90 days unless renewed with supermajority.
• State–market mix: emergency procurement; compel production of PPE/ventilation (Defense Production Act) with guaranteed buyback; rapid grants for antivirals and vaccine platforms.

Medium phase (months 2–9)

• Schools/work: flex by local ICU occupancy and wastewater signals. Mandate ventilation standards (CO2 targets), fund upgrades; masks for high-risk indoor contexts until R < 1 for 6 weeks.

• Targeted shielding: protect elders/immunocompromised with stipend-supported delivery, “green zones,” and priority antivirals; let low-risk sectors operate with ventilation + testing.

• Economic backstop: wage support for quarantines; time-limited eviction/foreclosure pauses paired with landlord backstops; automatic expiry when hospital load drops below trigger.

• Democratic process: elections proceed with universal mail/early voting and chain-of-custody audits; emergency powers limited to public-health logistics and expire in 90-day tranches.

Exit and memory

• Sunsets bite by default; publish an after-action with data, costs, and civil liberties impacts.

• Stockpile and keep ventilation standards permanent (cheap, non-intrusive gains).

• Return surveillance to baseline; keep only anonymized aggregates for research.

How to sell flexibility to Americans (without sounding slippery)

• Promise predictability through triggers: “When ICU occupancy hits 70% for 7 days, we do X. When it’s <30% for 14 days, we unwind Y.”

• Show your work: weekly dashboards with the exact metrics moving the dials.

• Pair every restriction with a support: if you ask people to stay home, you pay them quickly.

• Build cross-partisan stewards: emergency boards including governors, union reps, small biz, and opposition party leaders; rotate chairs.

What to watch to move the dials (sample triggers)

• Health: R-effective; ICU occupancy; excess mortality; wastewater viral load.

• Security: mean dwell time of intrusions; % of hospitals on manual operations.

• Economy: port dwell time; on-shelf availability; CPI sans food/energy vs wages.

• Crime: homicide rate per 100k; clearance rates; repeat violent offender share.

• Drugs: overdose deaths per 100k; naloxone deployments; market purity.

• Info integrity: cross-platform virality of verified fakes; election admin disruptions.

Bottom line

You treat America like a living system: tighten where fragility is rising, loosen when resilience returns. You don’t worship any single institution; you keep a calibrated mix, move it with public triggers, publish the receipts, and sunset the power. That’s Adaptive Regime Realism done right.

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