Why Does Steve Sailer Write About Sports & Pop Music?

Aren’t these topics low-status? Not anymore. Writing about sports and pop is not low-status for intellectuals and has not been since the 1960s. Pauline Kael, Susan Sontag, Greil Marcus, Roger Angell, and David Halberstam all built careers there. Cultural criticism is a respectable lane. So Sailer’s choice of subject, on its own, signals neither security nor insecurity.
What sets him apart is not that he writes about pop. It is what he brings to pop. He applies race, demographics, IQ, and population genetics to terrain where polite opinion forbids those frames. The column on why Kenyans dominate distance running, or this one on the sub-Saharan pop deficit, works as an empirical wedge for a larger heterodox project. Sports and pop hand him tests where the data are public and the rankings undeniable. You cannot argue away the medal stand or the Billboard chart.
So the security he shows is not philistine slumming. It is willingness to apply forbidden categories to subjects no one can pretend are trivial.
Most intellectuals who avoid Sailer’s kind of pop writing are not avoiding it from snobbery. The snobbery left two generations ago. They avoid it because the racial analysis costs jobs. Sailer pays no such cost because he has no institutional perch to lose. He writes on Substack from his house. His coalition does not gatekeep elite credentials, so he can ask why Burna Boy took so long without losing tenure, a grant, a column, or a dinner invitation he wanted.
His willingness has a structural source as much as a psychological one. He has the freedom independents have, which is also the freedom you have. The Sailer question and the Luke Ford question share a shape: who can write what, and what did they have to give up to keep writing it?
When people talk about a great pop song and an average pop song, what do they mean? I understand greatness in classical music, and I understand the pop songs I love, but I need clarity on what constitutes greatness in pop music.
As I understand it after some AI research, pop greatness is not one thing. It is at least four things that get bundled together, and the confusion comes from people using the same word for different claims.
The first is craft inside a tight form. A pop song has roughly three minutes, a verse-chorus structure, a small harmonic vocabulary, and a need to land fast. Greatness here means doing more inside the constraint than the constraint seems to allow. A hook that locks in on first hearing but does not wear out on the hundredth. A bridge that opens the song into a place the verses did not predict. A chord substitution at the right moment. A drum sound nobody had used that way before. Classical listeners hear this as compositional economy. The Brill Building writers, Holland-Dozier-Holland, Bacharach, McCartney, Stevie Wonder, Prince, Max Martin all work at this level. You can analyze it on paper.
The second is the recording as the work. This has no real classical analog. In pop after about 1965, the song and the recording become the same object. “Good Vibrations” is not a composition that was then recorded. It exists as that recording. Phil Spector, George Martin, Brian Wilson, Dr. Dre, Rick Rubin, Timbaland are great because they made sounds that did not exist before they made them. The greatness lives in timbre, space, compression, the specific snare hit. A cover version of a great record is almost always worse, because the record was the point. Classical music has nothing quite like this. A great Beethoven performance is one rendering of a fixed score. A great pop record is the score.
The third is voice and presence. Sinatra phrases a lyric in a way nobody else can. Aretha enters a song and the song becomes hers. Dylan’s voice should not work and does. Marley sounds like he means it, and most singers do not. This is closer to what classical listeners get from a great soloist, but in pop it fuses with songwriting and persona in a way the classical tradition keeps separate. The singer is often the writer and the icon at once, and the greatness braids these strands together.
The fourth is cultural timing. A great pop song arrives at a moment and names something the audience did not know it was waiting to hear. “Smells Like Teen Spirit” is not greater on the page than fifty other songs from 1991. It became great by detonating. “Respect” was a decent Otis Redding song before Aretha turned it into the sound of a movement. This dimension drives classical critics crazy because it seems to make greatness a sociological accident. But pop is a popular art. Reaching the people at the right moment is part of the form, not external to it.
Most arguments about pop greatness are people weighting these four differently without saying so. A craft-first listener ranks Bacharach high and Nirvana low. A recording-first listener ranks Dr. Dre and Brian Wilson at the summit. A voice-first listener puts Aretha and Sinatra above almost everyone. A timing-first listener cares about what a song did in the world, not what it sounds like in a vacuum.
Bob Marley scores on all four at once. That is rare, and it is why Sailer reaches for him as the standard.
Love collapses the four into one experience. Pulled apart, they are four different kinds of achievement that happen to share a name.
I grew up in a Seventh-day Adventist Australian home where listening to pop music was a sin. How many homes are like that today in the USA?
Very few, and the number has dropped sharply over the last forty years.
The strict no-pop-music position was never mainstream American Protestantism. It lived in a cluster of conservative holiness and adventist traditions: Seventh-day Adventists of the older school, Independent Fundamental Baptists, the Pentecostal Holiness wing, Church of God in Christ in some streams, conservative Mennonites and Amish, Free Methodists, parts of the Wesleyan tradition, and some Reformed Presbyterian groups that sing only psalms. Add conservative Churches of Christ, who oppose instrumental music in worship but vary on home listening.
Estimating households is guesswork, but the brackets are tractable.
Seventh-day Adventists in the United States number around 1.2 million members. The fraction holding the older strict line on pop music is a minority of that, perhaps 15 to 25 percent in the most conservative congregations and homeschool networks. Independent Fundamental Baptists number perhaps 2 to 4 million. The strict music position is more common there, maybe 30 to 50 percent of homes, though it has eroded. Conservative Mennonites and Amish together are around 600,000, and most still restrict pop music. The Holiness Pentecostal stream that maintains the older standard is a small fraction of broader Pentecostalism, perhaps a few hundred thousand. Add scattered conservative Reformed and Church of Christ households.
Adding the conservative slices and adjusting for household size rather than membership, you might land somewhere between 400,000 and 900,000 American households where pop music is treated as sinful or close to it. That is roughly half a percent to one percent of the country’s roughly 130 million households.
That number was much higher in 1970, when my childhood standard was widely shared across conservative evangelicalism, fundamentalist Baptist circles, and most adventist and holiness homes. The collapse came in stages. Contemporary Christian Music in the 1970s and 1980s gave conservative parents a permitted alternative and shifted the argument from “pop music is worldly” to “secular pop music is worldly.” Then praise and worship music in the 1990s adopted pop production wholesale, and the line dissolved further. By the 2000s most evangelical homes had given up the categorical objection. What remained was a much smaller core of separatist communities.
The strict position survives more in homeschool subcultures and in immigrant streams of these traditions than in the suburban congregations the same denominations run. A Filipino or African Adventist family in California today might keep the standard my father kept. A fourth-generation white Adventist family in the same state probably does not.
So my childhood was unusual then and is rare now. The world I was formed in has shrunk to a remnant.

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The Great Delusion

In his 2018 book, The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, John J. Mearsheimer wrote:

My view is that we are profoundly social beings from the start to the finish of our lives and that individualism is of secondary importance… Liberalism downplays the social nature of human beings to the point of almost ignoring it, instead treating people largely as atomistic actors… Political liberalism… is an ideology that is individualistic at its core and assigns great importance to the concept of inalienable rights. This concern for rights is the basis of its universalism—everyone on the planet has the same inherent set of rights—and this is what motivates liberal states to pursue ambitious foreign policies. The public and scholarly discourse about liberalism since World War II has placed enormous emphasis on what are commonly called human rights. This is true all around the world, not just in the West. “Human rights,” Samuel Moyn notes, “have come to define the most elevated aspirations of both social movements and political entities—state and interstate. They evoke hope and provoke action.”
[Humans] do not operate as lone wolves but are born into social groups or societies that shape their identities well before they can assert their individualism. Moreover, individuals usually develop strong attachments to their group and are sometimes willing to make great sacrifices for their fellow members. Humans are often said to be tribal at their core. The main reason for our social nature is that the best way for a person to survive is to be embedded in a society and to cooperate with fellow members rather than act alone… Despite its elevated ranking, reason is the least important of the three ways we determine our preferences. It certainly is less important than socialization. The main reason socialization matters so much is that humans have a long childhood in which they are protected and nurtured by their families and the surrounding society, and meanwhile exposed to intense socialization. At the same time, they are only beginning to develop their critical faculties, so they are not equipped to think for themselves. By the time an individual reaches the point where his reasoning skills are well developed, his family and society have already imposed an enormous value infusion on him. Moreover, that individual is born with innate sentiments that also strongly influence how he thinks about the world around him. All of this means that people have limited choice in formulating a moral code, because so much of their thinking about right and wrong comes from inborn attitudes and socialization.

If Mearsheimer is right, then the entire edifice of liberal political theory, liberal journalism, liberal education, liberal foreign policy, and liberal institutional self-understanding rests on a fundamental mistake about what humans are. The mistake is not a minor technical error. It is categorical. It produces systematic failures across every domain where the mistake is institutionally operative.
Let me work through what follows if Mearsheimer’s claims are accepted as accurate.
What follows for reason. If reason is the least important of the three ways humans determine their preferences, then political theory that treats reasoned agreement as the foundation of legitimate political order is building on what is actually the weakest foundation humans have. Rawls’s overlapping consensus, Dworkin’s interpretive community of reasonable citizens, Habermas’s communicative rationality, all of these depend on reason doing work it is actually not capable of doing. Reason does not produce the commitments these theorists treat as its products. Reason elaborates and rationalizes commitments that socialization and innate sentiment have already produced.
This does not mean reason is useless. It means reason’s role is different from what liberal theory assigns to it. Reason works within commitments rather than generating them. Reason can extend commitments to new cases, identify contradictions within existing commitments, produce sophisticated articulations of what socialization has already deposited. Reason cannot produce the foundational commitments from scratch through neutral analytical operations. Those commitments arrive through other channels.
What liberal theorists have been doing when they seem to produce political commitments through reason is actually something else. They are articulating commitments their socialization produced in them. The articulation feels like reasoning because they perform it using the vocabulary and procedures of reasoning. The feeling does not change what is actually happening. The commitments preceded the articulation. The articulation elaborates them. The articulation does not generate them.
This means that every liberal political philosopher who has built his system on the assumption that his reasoning could reach universal principles all reasonable people should accept has been doing something other than what he thought he was doing. He has been articulating his specific cultural formation in the vocabulary of neutral reason. His system’s apparent universality reflects the universality of the articulation vocabulary, not the universality of what is being articulated.
What follows for childhood. If humans have a long childhood in which they are exposed to intense socialization before they develop critical faculties, then the critical faculties that later emerge cannot be used to evaluate what the socialization deposited without circularity. The critical faculties themselves reflect the socialization that produced them. They cannot operate from outside the socialization to assess what the socialization did. They can only operate within the framework the socialization established.
This has substantial implications for what philosophy can accomplish. Philosophy has often been understood as the use of critical reflection to evaluate the commitments that ordinary life and culture have deposited in us. The Socratic examined life. The Cartesian methodical doubt. The Kantian critique of pure reason. Each of these presupposes that philosophical reflection can evaluate pre-philosophical commitments from a position that is not itself shaped by those commitments.
If Mearsheimer is right, this presupposition is false. Philosophical reflection cannot operate from outside the socialization that produced the capacities used in reflection. The capacities are themselves products of the formation being examined. Their apparent independence from the formation is illusory. They examine the formation using tools the formation provided. The examination cannot reach conclusions that transcend the formation because the examination operates within the formation’s framework.
This does not make philosophy useless. It means philosophy is something other than what its practitioners typically claim. Philosophy is the articulate working through of commitments from within the formation that produced the philosopher. The articulate working through can produce substantial intellectual work. It cannot produce assessment of the formation from outside the formation. No such outside position is available.
What follows for moral codes. If people have limited choice in formulating moral codes because so much of their thinking comes from inborn attitudes and socialization, then moral progress as liberal theory typically understands it is not what liberal theory describes. Liberal theory typically understands moral progress as the gradual recognition of universal principles through sustained rational reflection. The universal principles are discovered through the reflection. The discovery expands the circle of moral consideration, produces increasingly just institutions, brings human conduct into closer alignment with what reason requires.
If Mearsheimer is right, moral progress is not the discovery of universal principles through rational reflection. Moral progress, to the extent it occurs, is the gradual displacement of some culturally produced commitments by others. The displacement happens through specific social and political processes that include rational elaboration but are not primarily driven by it. The new commitments that displace the old ones are not more rational than the old ones. They are culturally sustained by different conditions that make them institutionally dominant.
This reframing does not mean moral progress does not exist. It means moral progress is something other than what liberal theory claims. Societies can develop commitments that produce better outcomes on various measures than previous commitments produced. The development is not the discovery of universal truth. It is the cultural replacement of one set of culturally produced commitments with another. The replacement can be welcomed or resisted on various grounds. The grounds for welcoming or resisting are themselves culturally produced. There is no neutral ground from which to evaluate the change.
This is destabilizing for liberal self-understanding. Liberal self-understanding treats its moral commitments as the discoveries of reasoned reflection rather than as one cultural formation among others. If the treatment is incorrect, then liberal confidence in the superiority of liberal commitments over alternative commitments cannot be grounded in the way liberal self-understanding assumes. The superiority, to the extent it can be defended, must be defended on other grounds. The other grounds are themselves culturally produced and do not escape the general condition Mearsheimer identifies.
What follows for innate sentiments. If humans are born with innate sentiments that strongly influence how they think about the world, then the blank slate assumption that has structured substantial liberal theorizing is wrong. Humans are not infinitely plastic material that liberal institutions can shape in any direction through sustained training. Humans have genetically transmitted propensities that operate alongside and sometimes against what liberal institutions try to produce.
The propensities are substantial. Evolutionary psychology has documented many of them across varied research programs. In-group preference. Kin favoritism. Male competition for status. Female selectivity about mates. Sexual division of labor in response to differential reproductive costs. Disgust responses to potential contaminants. Group loyalty under threat. The list extends across most of what makes human social life distinctive.
Liberal theory has typically treated these propensities as obstacles to be overcome rather than as constitutive features of what humans are. The overcoming would happen through sustained cultural training that replaces the propensities with universalist commitments to individual dignity, equal respect, and rational cooperation regardless of biological heritage. The training has been attempted across substantial institutional apparatus for decades.
The results have been mixed. The propensities have proved more durable than the training’s ambitions assumed. They re-emerge whenever institutional pressure slackens. They operate through populations that have received substantial training in universalist commitments but revert to in-group preference under stress. They produce political movements that reassert tribal loyalty against the institutional cosmopolitanism liberal training aimed to produce. The reassertions are not temporary setbacks in a steady march toward universalism. They are persistent features of human populations operating through their actual biological constitution rather than through what liberal training tried to install.
If Mearsheimer is right about all of this, then contemporary American politics looks different from what liberal self-understanding assumes it to be. The political conflict is not between those who recognize universal principles and those who remain trapped in tribal commitments. The conflict is between different tribal commitments that have been institutionally packaged differently. Liberal institutional commitments are tribal commitments that have been trained to present themselves as universal. Populist commitments are tribal commitments that present themselves as tribal. The difference is in presentation, not in underlying structure.
This reframing changes what political conflict is about. It is not about whether to accept reason and universal principles. It is about which tribal commitments will be institutionally dominant. The institutional dominance of liberal commitments for several decades was a political achievement, not the triumph of reason over irrationality. The current resurgence of populist commitments is not the regression from reason to irrationality. It is the political reassertion of tribal commitments that liberal institutional dominance had suppressed but not eliminated.
The reframing does not automatically favor populist commitments over liberal ones. It removes the automatic favor liberal commitments have enjoyed through their self-presentation as universal rather than tribal. Both sets of commitments must be defended on grounds other than claims to universality. The grounds are whatever reasons people can offer for preferring one set of commitments over another. The reasons are themselves tribal in the sense that they operate from within specific cultural formations. There is no neutral ground from which to adjudicate. The adjudication happens through political processes that include rational argument but are not primarily determined by it.
If Mearsheimer is right that reason is the least important of the three ways humans determine their preferences, then Mearsheimer’s own argument is itself not primarily the product of reason. It is the articulation of commitments his socialization and innate sentiments produced. His realism in international relations theory reflects specific tribal and cultural commitments rather than neutral assessment of evidence. His critique of liberalism operates from a specific cultural formation that makes the critique possible rather than from trans-cultural assessment.
Mearsheimer would likely accept this. Realist international relations theory does not claim to be the view from nowhere. It claims to be accurate about human nature in ways that liberal theory is inaccurate. The accuracy claim can be evaluated on evidence without requiring that realism transcend cultural formation. The evaluation is itself culturally located. No neutral position is available. What can be asked is whether the evidence supports the realist claims better than it supports the liberal claims. The asking happens from within specific cultural formations that shape what evidence is admitted as relevant and how it is weighted.
If Mearsheimer is right, liberal political theory has been substantially mistaken about humans for the entire period of its institutional dominance. The mistake has produced specific pathologies across American institutional life. The pathologies include the specific failures of American foreign policy Mearsheimer’s book targets. They include the specific inadequacies of mainstream American media to cover political developments that operate outside liberal frameworks. They include the specific failures of American universities to engage substantial portions of the populations that fund them. They include the specific inability of American political theory to address contemporary political developments that do not fit its assumptions.
The pathologies cannot be corrected without acknowledging the mistake. The acknowledgment is resisted by the institutions that have been built on the mistake. The resistance is structural rather than accidental. Acknowledging the mistake would require reconstructing the institutions around different assumptions about what humans are. The reconstruction is difficult and expensive. The institutions have considerable inertia. They tend to persist through accumulating pathologies rather than through acknowledging and correcting the underlying mistake.
This is where contemporary American politics currently stands. The institutions built on the mistake are under sustained pressure from populations whose actual human nature does not fit the institutions’ assumptions. The institutions respond to the pressure in ways that accumulate rather than resolve the pathologies. The responses deepen the divisions rather than healing them. The trajectory continues because no political coalition has both the will and the capacity to reconstruct the institutions around more accurate assumptions.
Democratic peace theory rests on Kantian foundations Doyle and Russett made canonical. Republican governments restrain war because citizens pay the costs and constrain leaders. Shared liberal norms produce mutual recognition between democracies. Both legs assume the individualism Mearsheimer rejects. Citizens identify with their nation before they identify with abstract liberal principles. The peace among Western democracies after 1945 rode on shared tribal alignment against the Soviet Union and on a thin civilizational kinship, not on the rational calculation of cost-bearing voters. India and Pakistan, both democratic at various points, fought along tribal lines that democratic norms could not dampen. Northern Ireland sat inside two democracies and produced thirty years of intercommunal violence. If Mearsheimer is right, the democratic peace rides on prior national alignment, not on liberal institutions or norms. It survives where tribal identities align and dissolves where they conflict.
Liberal institutionalism rests on similar premises. Keohane argued that institutions reduce transaction costs, supply information, and extend the shadow of the future, so cooperation becomes rational for self-interested states. Ikenberry extended the argument: the postwar American-led order binds even the leading power through rule-based commitments. If humans absorb national identity before reason can construct alternatives, institutions cannot transform interests at the deeper layer. They sit on top of national identity during periods when identities point the same direction. The European Union flourished while Western Europeans shared anti-Soviet alignment, postwar exhaustion, and a civilizational kinship none of them said out loud. It strains now: Brexit, the Hungarian and Polish challenges, the German-Greek split during the Eurozone crisis, the migration disputes that have run since 2015. The Trump-era assault on the liberal order looks less like institutional failure and more like American national identity reasserting against the technocratic-cosmopolitan layer riding on top of it.
Cosmopolitan ethics in the Beitz-Pogge-Held-Caney tradition rests on premises Mearsheimer’s view dismantles. These thinkers argue that humans owe moral duties to fellow humans regardless of borders, and that those duties can ground a universal political ethics. The argument requires a moral psychology Mearsheimer denies. Humans must be capable of recognizing distant strangers as moral equals through reason, and that recognition must stay stable enough to override tribal preference. Mearsheimer predicts something different. Cosmopolitan ethics describes the self-understanding of a credentialed Western elite whose tribal markers happen to be universalist talk, foreign travel, and elite education. The universalism is the in-group signal, not a transcendence of in-group thinking. Every refugee crisis, immigration debate, and border standoff shows publics reverting to tribal frames when stakes rise. Even within elite cosmopolitan circles, in-group sorting persists along ideological lines. The cosmopolitan project fails because socialization into a particular people happens long before reason can construct universal commitments, and the particular bonds stay stronger than any abstract ones reason can build later.
In the 2023 book, Making Democratic Theory Democratic: Democracy, Law, and Administration after Weber and Kelsen, George Mazur and Stephen Turner write:

In the decades after John Rawls’ A Theory of Justice (1971) and especially over the past 20 years or so, many books have been published with the same aim: to vindicate and explicate something that is usually called social democracy on philosophical or social science grounds. After the intense ideological rivalries of the twentieth century, this political ideal has become the default position of virtually all academic thinkers in relevant areas. A century that began with the frank acceptance of the irreconcilability of political value choices, and proceeded with extraordinarily intense ideological warfare, ended with a surprisingly broad, though loose, consensus. One could list such works as Philip Pettit (1997), Amartya Sen (2009), and Alan Gewirth (1978) as examples. And in sociology, one could give Pierre Bourdieu (Bourdieu, 2008; Wacquant, 2005) and Jürgen Habermas (2001) as more or less full members of this consensus.

How did this happen?
The academic professions transformed demographically after World War II. The GI Bill expanded the universities. The 1960s and 1970s brought a wave of left-leaning entrants who became senior faculty by the 1990s. Hiring committees select for fit, and once a department tilts one way, the tilt reproduces. By the time Pettit, Sen, and Habermas wrote, the relevant departments in philosophy, political theory, and sociology had sorted ideologically. Conservatives and classical liberals had migrated to think tanks like AEI, Heritage, Hoover, and Cato, or to niches at a few institutions: Straussian programs, Catholic natural-law circles, the law-and-economics movement at a few law schools. The mainstream venues no longer had to argue against them.
Rawls did particular work here. A Theory of Justice gave welfare-state liberalism a philosophical apparatus that made it look like the conclusion of rigorous reasoning rather than a political preference. The veil of ignorance and the difference principle let academics derive redistributive conclusions through what looked like neutral procedure. Social democrats no longer had to say they preferred social democracy. They could say reason itself preferred it. Robert Nozick’s Anarchy, State, and Utopia (1974) was the last libertarian work to get full engagement in mainstream philosophy. By the 1990s the field had moved on.
The collapse of the Soviet Union from 1989 to 1991 closed the revolutionary option. Marxists who had spent careers defending some version of the socialist project now had nowhere to go. Social democracy became the natural home for ex-Marxists and post-Marxists. Bourdieu came from that tradition. So did much of the Frankfurt School lineage Habermas inherited. The convergence of different starting traditions on roughly the same conclusions is the tell. Bourdieu, Habermas, Sen, Pettit, and Gewirth start from incompatible premises: French Marxism, Frankfurt critical theory, welfare economics, neo-republican theory, Kantian rationalism. They arrive at the same destination. Independent reason rarely produces that pattern. Coalition selection does.
Samuel Moyn’s argument about human rights fits here. Human rights discourse filled the vacuum socialism’s collapse left behind. It gave the consensus a universalist moral vocabulary that did not require defending command economies. Social democracy at home, human rights abroad. The package became the default elite position across the West.
Funding flowed in the same direction. Ford, Rockefeller, MacArthur, and later Open Society directed substantial resources toward research congenial to the consensus. Conservative funders existed but operated mostly outside the universities. Peer review, citation networks, tenure committees, and conference invitations rewarded work that fit the consensus and quietly punished work that did not. Dissenting books got reviewed in dissenting venues. The consensus rarely had to engage them.
Professionalization tightened the consensus. Earlier political theorists wrote for educated publics. By the 1990s, political theory had become a specialized academic subfield with its own internal markers of competence. Those markers included the Rawlsian apparatus, the Habermasian apparatus, and the language of recognition, deliberation, and capability that grew up around them. A young philosopher who wanted to publish in the leading journals had to speak that language. The language carried social-democratic premises with it.
The end of the Cold War removed the external pressure that had kept some academics defending market institutions against communism. Once communism collapsed, social democracy became the safe middle position. Defenders of markets looked extreme. Critics from the left looked nostalgic. The center moved.
What emerged was less a philosophical consensus than a coalition consensus. The members signal membership through shared vocabulary, shared citations, and shared conclusions. The premises differ. The conclusions converge. The twentieth century ended with one coalition winning the relevant academic institutions.

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Andrew Marantz: A Reporter Among the Talkers

Andrew Marantz writes for The New Yorker about people who change what other people think. He came to that subject through religion, which he studied at Brown from 2002 to 2006, and through literary nonfiction, which he studied at NYU from 2009 to 2011. From religion he learned to read belief from the outside as a working system. From literary nonfiction he learned to render that system in scenes. A reporter who writes about Mike Cernovich the way an anthropologist writes about a small village is doing work neither field alone produces.
Marantz was born in 1984 to two physicians and grew up in the lower Connecticut suburbs that point at New York. He read The New Yorker as a boy. The magazine he later joined had already shaped his sense of what good prose can do. That is a small fact with consequences. The house style of the magazine rewards patience: long takes, scenes built from observation, a reluctance to declare too soon. It also imposes limits. The reader expected by the magazine is educated, urban, and broadly liberal. A writer trained on that reader builds his moral vocabulary partly to suit him.
He joined the magazine in 2011 as a kind of utility man. Early pieces ranged across hip-hop authenticity debates, the Truman Show delusion, Las Vegas service workers, and Liberian war crimes. The breadth was a writer testing his range. The pieces share a temperament: curiosity about subcultures, attention to how members of a group talk to each other, and an aversion to easy contempt.
After 2016 his subject narrowed. He started reporting on the men who built an audience by being unpleasant on the internet. He sat with White nationalists. He went to alt-right conferences. He spent time with podcasters and message-board operators and the half-trolls who treat racism as a long joke. The book that came out of that work is Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation, published in 2019.
The book has two arguments. The first concerns how speech works on platforms tuned to reward outrage. Engagement is the unit the algorithm reads. Outrage is the most reliable way to produce engagement. So a man who can produce outrage on demand has a structural advantage over a man who cannot. He does not need to be persuasive. He needs to be loud, ugly, and quotable. The platform handles distribution. The press handles laundering. By the time a fringe slogan reaches a senator, the senator can claim he is responding to the public mood.
The second argument is about Richard Rorty. Marantz reads Rorty the way some reporters read Foucault: as license to take language seriously as an object of study. The claim he draws from Rorty is that the way a culture talks to itself sets the limits of what it can do. Change the talk and you change the politics. He does not romanticize this. The same insight a labor organizer might use to expand sympathy is available to a man who wants to make slurs sayable again. The reporting in Antisocial spends most of its time on the second case.
The Rorty reading lines up with a darker one drawn from James Baldwin. Marantz cites Baldwin to keep the moral stakes in view. Without that pressure his treatment of the alt-right could slide into mere portraiture. The men he writes about are pathetic, lonely, and small, and what they say is also poisonous. Both can be true.
A reader can see Marantz changing his mind across the book. He arrives a free-speech liberal. He leaves something else, though he cannot quite say what. He sees that the marketplace metaphor breaks down when one party can flood the market with cheap counterfeits. He sees that traditional gatekeepers were doing more useful work than their critics admitted. He stops short of endorsing platform censorship at scale. The result has the shape of a question. He is honest about not having solved it.
That honesty marks his strongest work and his weakest. He is a careful diagnostician and a poor prescriber. The closing pages of Antisocial gesture at norms, at moderation, at better conversation. They feel thin against the reporting. He wants institutions to do something he is not sure they can do, and he does not press the question of who pays the cost of asking them to do it.
His method is the part of his work most often misread. Critics who dislike him say he platforms his subjects. Defenders say he exposes them. Both miss what he does. He reconstructs a community from inside its own talk. He notices what the members find funny. He records the slang. He maps the small status hierarchies that decide who speaks first in a chat. The result reads like ethnography in part because that is what it is. The training in religion is doing work here. A man taught to study Pentecostal speaking-in-tongues without believing it can study a Discord server about race war without endorsing it.
The lineage worth naming runs through Joan Didion and Tom Wolfe. Didion taught a generation of magazine writers that close attention to surface detail can carry an argument about the underlying culture. Wolfe taught them that subcultures are worth taking seriously as social systems. Marantz draws from both, though he lacks Didion’s coldness and Wolfe’s fascination with class. His tone is warmer and more anxious. He likes the people he reports on more than he should and trusts them less than he wants to.
His position at The New Yorker shapes the work in ways he leaves unnamed. The magazine pays him to bring back reports from places its readers do not go. That is a useful arrangement and a constrained one. The reader he writes for already agrees with him about the broad shape of the problem. The argument he builds is built for that reader. Sharper writers have noticed that the elite media class he writes within is part of the system he describes. Marantz nods at this and moves on. He works there. The institution he writes from is one of the engines of normalization he describes elsewhere.
The later work expands his range. He has written on artificial intelligence and the men who fear it, on the slow corrosion of democratic norms, on the contest for young male voters, and most recently, with Ronan Farrow, on Sam Altman. The line through these subjects is the same line that runs through Antisocial. He keeps asking how a culture decides what is sayable, and what happens when the answer is handed to a small number of platforms and a slightly larger number of men who know how to use them. The subject has gotten bigger. Synthetic media multiplies the problems social media introduced. Trust in shared facts goes on dropping. He follows the trouble where it goes.
He lives in Brooklyn with his wife Sarah Lustbader, a criminal-justice reformer, and a son born in 2017. He treats his subjects as neighbors he disagrees with and writes about them with the patience disagreement demands. That patience is his signature and his limit. It opens doors. It also slows him from naming, in plain terms, the pressures that produced the people he writes about.
What survives in his work is a habit of reading talk for what it does rather than what it claims. The trolls he covers are not stupid. They understand the platforms they use better than the editors who try to manage them. Their craft is provocation calibrated to algorithmic reward.

‘A Big Misunderstanding’

Andrew Marantz writes in the tradition Pinsof attacks. His 2019 book Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation treats online extremism as an epistemic problem. The story runs as follows. Platforms optimized for virality flood the public square with garbage. Gatekeepers collapse. Ordinary people fall down rabbit holes. Democracy suffers. Fix the information environment and the politics improves.
Pinsof reads this as the misunderstanding myth in pure form.
Consider the figures Marantz embeds with. Mike Cernovich, Mike Enoch, the Proud Boys, the meme-makers and Discord trolls. Marantz portrays them as people captured by bad epistemics, addicted to outrage, lost in a feedback loop of contrarian status-seeking. Through Pinsof’s lens these men run high-fidelity coalition strategies under competitive pressure. They test frames. They refine language. They adapt to audience response. They derogate rivals with precision. This is optimization, not cognitive failure.
Cernovich does not sit in a rabbit hole. He stands on a rooftop with a megaphone, calling allies to him and enemies to combat. The rabbit hole framing flatters the journalist who claims to map it.
Marantz inherits Richard Rorty. He repeats the line that to change how we talk is to change who we are. Pinsof treats this as the high water mark of intellectual self-flattery. Language does not constitute the social order. Coalitions do. People do not fight because their vocabularies diverge. They fight because the coercive apparatus of the state can only serve one coalition at a time. The winner imposes its preferences on the loser.
Marantz’s focus on “misinformation” is a coalition move. Pinsof points out the term has two definitions and both fail. Define it broadly and it covers everything, including elite journalism. Define it narrowly and it covers fabrication, which is rare and historically unimportant. The category serves a function. It lets one coalition mark the speech of rivals as illegitimate while protecting its own. Fact-checkers are not neutral arbiters. They are combatants with credentials. They derogate rival speech under cover of epistemology.
The activists and platform reformers Marantz profiles sympathetically are not exempt from this analysis. They tell themselves they protect democracy. Pinsof says they pursue status, moral authority, and coalition dominance, even as they experience their motives as altruistic. The sincerity is part of the design. Self-deception greases coalition behavior. Robert Trivers worked this out decades ago. We persuade others by first persuading ourselves.
Marantz misreads his subjects at a deeper level. He calls them antisocial. Pinsof might call them hyper-social. The trolls form tight loyalty networks. They reward in-group sacrifice. They punish defection. They coordinate aggression against out-groups with speed and precision. That is sociality at full power. What Marantz mourns as the loss of civil discourse was a settled hierarchy in an earlier period. One coalition held cultural authority. Others stayed quiet. The discourse looked peaceful because the fight was suppressed. The fight returned.
Marantz’s stated motive is to understand a broken information environment and help repair it. His actual position is to chronicle for one coalition its struggle against another. The New Yorker is not a neutral observatory. It is the magazine of an elite formation with interests, sensibilities, and rivals. When Marantz argues in the New York Times that “Free Speech Is Killing Us,” he does not depart from journalism into advocacy. He does what coalition members do under pressure. He asks the state to suppress rival speech. The intellectual class loses control of the narrative and reaches for the coercive apparatus.
Marantz sees a sick patient. The patient is the public sphere. The disease is misinformation. The treatment is content moderation, media literacy, platform reform, and renewed gatekeeping. Pinsof says there is no sick patient. There are competing coalitions doing what coalitions do. The “sickness” is the temporary breakdown of the previous coalition’s monopoly on respectable speech. From the perspective of the rising coalition, nothing is sick. Power is shifting.
Marantz cannot accept this because accepting it dissolves his role. If the problem is not misunderstanding, the explainer has no special task. If the trolls understand themselves perfectly well, the journalist who claims to decode them is just another partisan with a notebook.
Pinsof closes with the line that the only misunderstanding is that there has been a misunderstanding. Apply that to Antisocial and the book’s premise inverts. The figures Marantz studies are not lost. They know what they want. They want status, allies, money, and political power. They use the tools available. The figures Marantz aligns with want similar things and use different tools. The hole Marantz describes in such loving detail is the social order operating as designed.
Marantz is a careful reporter and a strong stylist. Antisocial contains real ethnography and useful detail. Pinsof’s framework does not erase the book. It reframes it. Antisocial reads less as a diagnosis of a broken public sphere and more as a record of one coalition trying to make sense of its rivals using the vocabulary it has, under conditions where its older vocabulary no longer commands assent. Marantz sees this about his subjects. He does not see it about himself. The hole studies itself and pretends the study is a ladder.

The Great Delusion

In his 2018 book, The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, John J. Mearsheimer wrote:

My view is that we are profoundly social beings from the start to the finish of our lives and that individualism is of secondary importance… Liberalism downplays the social nature of human beings to the point of almost ignoring it, instead treating people largely as atomistic actors… Political liberalism… is an ideology that is individualistic at its core and assigns great importance to the concept of inalienable rights. This concern for rights is the basis of its universalism—everyone on the planet has the same inherent set of rights—and this is what motivates liberal states to pursue ambitious foreign policies. The public and scholarly discourse about liberalism since World War II has placed enormous emphasis on what are commonly called human rights. This is true all around the world, not just in the West. “Human rights,” Samuel Moyn notes, “have come to define the most elevated aspirations of both social movements and political entities—state and interstate. They evoke hope and provoke action.”
[Humans] do not operate as lone wolves but are born into social groups or societies that shape their identities well before they can assert their individualism. Moreover, individuals usually develop strong attachments to their group and are sometimes willing to make great sacrifices for their fellow members. Humans are often said to be tribal at their core. The main reason for our social nature is that the best way for a person to survive is to be embedded in a society and to cooperate with fellow members rather than act alone… Despite its elevated ranking, reason is the least important of the three ways we determine our preferences. It certainly is less important than socialization. The main reason socialization matters so much is that humans have a long childhood in which they are protected and nurtured by their families and the surrounding society, and meanwhile exposed to intense socialization. At the same time, they are only beginning to develop their critical faculties, so they are not equipped to think for themselves. By the time an individual reaches the point where his reasoning skills are well developed, his family and society have already imposed an enormous value infusion on him. Moreover, that individual is born with innate sentiments that also strongly influence how he thinks about the world around him. All of this means that people have limited choice in formulating a moral code, because so much of their thinking about right and wrong comes from inborn attitudes and socialization.

Marantz’s Antisocial rests on a liberal anthropology. People form their views through information intake. Bad information produces bad views. Better information produces better views. Reform the information environment and you reform the people.
Mearsheimer rejects this anthropology at the root. Humans are social from start to finish. Tribal attachment precedes individual reasoning by decades. By the time a man can think clearly, his family, his church, his school, his neighborhood, and his nation have stamped him with a moral code. Innate sentiments do further work. Reason arrives last and weakest.
If Mearsheimer is right, Marantz misreads his subjects from the first page.
Take Mike Cernovich or Mike Enoch. Marantz portrays them as men who fell into bad information loops, who got captured by algorithmic feedback, who lost their way through failed epistemic hygiene. Mearsheimer reads them differently. Each man arrived at his politics through socialization, group attachment, and innate sentiment, with reason playing the smallest part. The internet did not create their tribal commitments. It gave them tools to express commitments formed long before.
The same applies to the alt-right rank and file. Marantz tracks young White men radicalized through YouTube, Reddit, and podcasts. The radicalization story assumes these men once held neutral views and then moved under the pressure of argument and meme. Mearsheimer’s framework suggests they carried ethnic, regional, class, and religious attachments long before they found the platforms. The platforms gave shape to commitments already laid down.
Marantz inherits liberal universalism. His New Yorker frame treats human rights as a self-evident moral grammar. Bigotry then looks like a failure to grasp universal truth. Mearsheimer says the universalism is a tribal product. It grew in a particular soil, among a particular coalition, in a particular historical moment. Treating it as universal is a coalition move, not a discovery.
This sharpens the critique of “misinformation” already implied by Pinsof. Marantz wants better gatekeeping and platform reform to clean up the information environment. Mearsheimer asks what might change even if the cleanup succeeded. Reason is the weakest of three forces. A purified information stream still meets a man whose tribal identity, family loyalties, and innate sentiments formed in childhood.
Marantz’s hope rests on a model Mearsheimer rejects. The model says: present good arguments, expose bad ones, build healthy discourse, watch the public mind correct itself. The model assumes the public mind is mostly made of arguments. Mearsheimer says the public mind is mostly made of attachments. Arguments float on top.
The implication for journalism cuts deep. Marantz writes long, careful, scene-rich pieces designed to move readers through reason and empathy. Under Mearsheimer’s anthropology, that craft reaches the part of the reader that least controls his beliefs. A reader’s tribe was set before he could read. His New Yorker subscription confirms a tribal location. His response to Marantz’s reporting flows from that location more than from the prose.
Marantz himself looks different under this lens. He attended elite universities. He works in elite media. His social milieu prizes cosmopolitanism, pluralism, and the language of harm and inclusion. Mearsheimer’s framework treats this milieu as Marantz’s tribe. His commitments grew there. They feel universal because everyone around him shares them. The trolls he profiles experience their commitments the same way, inside their own circles. The two camps grew from different tribes.
The quarrel between Marantz and his subjects looks like a quarrel between two coalitions, each grown from socialization and innate sentiment, each persuaded that it speaks for humanity.
Mearsheimer’s foreign policy point completes the picture. Liberal states pursue ambitious foreign policies because liberalism declares its values universal. Mearsheimer calls this a delusion. The delusion appears at home as well. Marantz’s calls for content moderation and platform reform carry the same universalist confidence. He treats his coalition’s preferences as the floor every reasonable person accepts. Mearsheimer says no such floor exists. Other coalitions stand on different ground and will not move off it through argument.
The hole Pinsof describes deepens under Mearsheimer. Pinsof says we understand our incentives and act on them. Mearsheimer says we do not understand the moral code we inherited, because we did not choose it, and we cannot easily revise it. The man Marantz hopes to reach by changing the conversation was made before any conversation reached him.
Marantz’s project does not collapse into nothing. His reporting records what coalitions look like under stress. But the stated purpose, to repair a broken public mind through better discourse, sits on an anthropology Mearsheimer rejects at the root. Marantz is not building a ladder. He is decorating the walls of a hole dug before he arrived.

Watergate as Democratic Ritual & Cultural Trauma

Marantz’s project, taken across his magazine work and Antisocial, can be read as an attempt to produce the same alignment around online extremism, the alt-right, and the platforms that amplified them. He documents the polluting figures. He names the threat to the civic center. He calls for institutional social controls. He addresses an audience that constitutes a differentiated elite countercenter. He participates in the broader anti-Trump trauma construction that elaborated through the late 2010s into the early 2020s. The work has the shape Alexander describes. The five conditions are present in his text. The question is whether the cultural conditions outside his text allow them to align in the broader civic body the way they aligned in 1973 to 1974.
They have not. The Trump victories of 2016 and 2024 are the empirical evidence that the trauma construction Marantz served has not achieved civic-religious generalization across the broader American body. Within elite liberal institutions, the construction is dominant. Within the coalitions Marantz writes for, it commands authority. Across the wider civic terrain, it has not crossed the threshold. Marantz’s carrier-group work succeeds in its bounded audience and fails to generalize. His prose addresses the converted. The ritual he is performing does not engage the full Alexander apparatus because the conditions for full engagement do not exist outside the New Yorker reader’s institutional sphere.
This bounded success has shaped his prose in ways the Alexander frame makes visible. Successful civic ritual produces the kind of confident priestly performance the Senate hearings showed. The senators who performed during Watergate did not hedge. They did not qualify. They spoke from inside a sacred order whose authority they could take for granted. Marantz cannot speak this way. His magazine’s voice does not allow it. His readers’ political situation does not authorize it. He must construct the polluting figures through documentation rather than denouncing them through pronouncement. The literary nonfiction training, the ethnographic method, the reluctance to declare too soon, all of these reflect a prose tradition built for a culture whose civic religion had not yet fragmented as the contemporary one has.
The cooling-out problem Alexander identifies operates against Marantz in a specific form. His subjects deploy a sophisticated cooling-out apparatus. They claim to be joking. They claim to be performing irony. They claim that their statements about race or violence operate in a technical-rational mode of cultural commentary rather than in the porous mode of civic combat. Marantz’s task is to break their cooling-out and demonstrate that what they are doing has the civic significance the cooling-out denies. He works hard at this. He cites Baldwin to keep the moral stakes in view. He documents the real consequences that follow from the speech the cooling-out frames as merely speech. The work is competent. The cooling-out is partly broken in his audience. Outside his audience, the cooling-out holds. Many Americans who read about his subjects through alternative channels accept the cooling-out frame and view Marantz’s anti-cooling-out work as itself an overreach. The civic ritual cannot complete because the cooling-out apparatus retains its authority for half the country.
Now bring in the cultural trauma essay.
Alexander’s argument is that traumas are constructed by carrier groups making four interlocking claims. The nature of the pain. The identity of the victim. The relation of victim to wider audience. The attribution of responsibility. Successful trauma construction requires all four to be answered in ways that resonate with the audience the carrier group addresses. The carrier group itself must occupy structural positions, hold material and ideal interests, and bring discursive talents that fit the symbolic work.
Marantz answers all four with precision. The pain is the corruption of public discourse, the rise of organized cruelty in political life, the hijacking of platforms designed for connection by men who use them for harm. The victims are the targets of online harassment, the broader public sphere, democratic deliberation as a practice. The connection to wider audience extends through anyone who values civilized public conversation, which his readers consider themselves to do. The responsibility belongs to specific named figures, Cernovich and Spencer and the others, plus the structural enablers, the platforms, the algorithms, the free-speech absolutists, and the techno-utopians who built infrastructure that rewards the named figures’ behavior.
The construction is well-formed. Each of Alexander’s four pieces is in place. The work fits Alexander’s description of carrier-group activity in religious, aesthetic, legal, scientific, and mass media arenas. Marantz operates in the mass media arena with the discursive resources of the literary nonfiction tradition. His New Yorker position gives him structural standing. His training in religious studies and literary nonfiction supplies the discursive talents. His material interests run through book sales, magazine contracts, and the broader market for the kind of work he does. His ideal interests are framed as commitment to journalism and to democracy. He is, in textbook Alexander form, a carrier-group figure doing trauma-construction labor.
What makes him distinctive within the form is the ethnographic method. Alexander’s typical carrier-group figure builds the trauma construction from outside the polluted population. He does not need to know the men he denounces. He needs only the documentary apparatus that lets him classify them. Marantz operates differently. He embeds. He spends time with Cernovich. He attends the conferences. He records the language and the small-status hierarchies and the coded jokes that the participants do not explain to outsiders. This is religious-studies ethnography applied to political subcultures. It produces a different kind of evidence than the standard carrier-group apparatus produces.
The ethnographic method creates a tension Alexander’s frame helps name. The carrier group’s symbolic function requires the polluted to be classified clearly as polluted. The ethnographic method requires the polluted to be rendered as humans operating inside their own coherent symbolic world. Marantz’s prose carries both at once. His subjects appear as pathetic and lonely and small. They also appear as poisonous. Both are accurate within their respective frames. The two frames do not fully reconcile in his prose because they are doing different kinds of work. The ethnographic frame is humanizing because that is what ethnographic prose does. The carrier-group frame is classifying because that is what trauma construction requires. Marantz holds both. The holding produces what readers notice as ambivalence.
Critics of his work split along this seam. Defenders say he exposes his subjects through patient documentation. Detractors say he platforms them by giving them the dignity of careful attention. Both miss what the Alexander frame makes visible. The ethnographic method is providing carrier-group evidence in a form the carrier group’s traditional methods do not produce. The patient attention is not in tension with the classifying function. It is the means by which the classifying function operates in this specific case. Marantz is not platforming and he is not exposing. He is documenting in a register his magazine’s readers can absorb. The documentation feeds the classification. The classification was already in place before the documentation arrived.
Alexander’s pollution-transfer logic clarifies the structure of the work further. Marantz does not stop at the named alt-right figures. He extends the pollution to the techno-utopians who built the platforms, to the libertarian free-speech defenders who refused to crack down, to the gatekeepers who failed to gatekeep. The pollution travels outward from the obvious cases to the structural enablers. This is essential carrier-group activity. Naming the obvious figures is the easy part. Extending the pollution to the structural enablers is what gives the trauma construction the scope to demand institutional response. If only the named figures were polluted, you could fire them and the problem would stop. If the platforms are polluted too, you need platform reform, content moderation, government intervention. The pollution transfer authorizes the institutional response the trauma construction calls for.
This is what Marantz’s project provides for the broader anti-Trump trauma construction it serves. The construction needed evidence that the alt-right was structurally enabled rather than merely individually present. Marantz produced the evidence. The evidence carried the authority of patient ethnographic documentation rather than the authority of polemical assertion. This made it more durable than polemic. It also made it less ritually charged. The trauma construction required ritual charge to generalize. The patient documentation could not supply the charge. Other carrier-group figures had to convert Marantz’s documentation into ritual material. Some did. The conversion was incomplete because the underlying material was not fully ritualized to begin with.
The Rorty borrowing Marantz draws on is itself a piece of carrier-group symbolic work. Alexander would notice immediately. Rorty’s claim that culture’s vocabulary sets the limits of what culture can do is a piece of philosophical authorization for the symbolic work Marantz wants to do. It tells him that documenting and reframing language is not a marginal activity but a central political practice. It gives him intellectual permission to treat the alt-right’s vocabulary as politically consequential rather than as merely offensive speech. The borrowing serves his carrier-group function. He needs the philosophical authorization to do the symbolic work the trauma construction requires. Rorty supplies it. Marantz uses it. The use is not cynical. He plausibly believes Rorty is correct. The belief is what makes the use effective. Pinsof’s frame already named this. Alexander adds that the philosophical authorization is itself part of the ritual apparatus. Carrier groups need legitimating frames. Rorty supplies one for the kind of work Marantz wants to do.
What Alexander’s two essays do not predict, but what his frame helps see, is what happens when carrier-group work is performed competently in service of a trauma construction that does not generalize. Most of Alexander’s examples are successful generalizations. Watergate worked. The Holocaust narrative worked, with the Israeli state as one of its institutional fruits. Civil rights worked. These cases show what successful carrier-group activity looks like when it culminates in civic-religious authority. Marantz’s case shows something different. The carrier-group activity is competent. The trauma construction is well-formed. The audience is reached. And yet the broader civic generalization does not occur. The book wins prizes. The author keeps his job. The construction the author serves remains influential within its institutional sphere. The civic body outside that sphere does not absorb the trauma construction as sacred. Trump wins again. The platforms expand under different management. The cooling-out apparatus the construction tried to break holds for half the country.
This is the structural condition of carrier-group work in a fragmented civic order. The Watergate consensus was possible because the United States in 1973 still had something like a unified civic religion that could be activated by appropriate ritual conditions. By 2019 and certainly by 2024, that unified civic religion had fractured. Multiple competing civic constructions ran in parallel. Each had its own carrier groups, its own trauma narratives, its own pollution-purification rituals. None could fully command the civic body because no civic body of the kind Watergate addressed any longer existed. Marantz’s work is excellent within the carrier-group apparatus of one of these competing constructions. It cannot generalize because the conditions for generalization across the fragmented civic order are not available to any carrier group operating from within only one of the constructions.
This produces the specific quality his late work has. The 2019 book carries the energy of someone who still believes the construction might generalize if the documentation is patient enough and the prose careful enough. The work after 2024 cannot maintain the same energy. The events have demonstrated that the construction is not generalizing on the timeline its carrier groups expected. Marantz keeps doing the work. He cannot easily do anything else. The work has shaped him and the audience that supports him. To stop performing it would be to acknowledge a failure his coalition cannot accept. So the work continues, with diminishing returns relative to the scale of its ambition, addressed to an audience that already accepts its premises, providing further documentation of phenomena the audience has long classified.
The deeper tension Alexander’s frame surfaces is the tension between his ethnographic instincts and his carrier-group function. The ethnographic instinct, taught by religious studies, is to render the subject’s symbolic world as coherent on its own terms. The carrier-group function requires the subject’s symbolic world to be classified as polluted in the carrier group’s larger frame. These two operations are not fully compatible. A scrupulous ethnographer might produce material that humanizes the polluted in ways the carrier-group function cannot use. A scrupulous carrier-group operator might produce classifications that the ethnographic eye cannot endorse. Marantz’s prose shows the friction. The friction is part of what makes the work distinctive. It also limits the work’s effectiveness as carrier-group production. Other writers, less ethnographically careful, produce more usable carrier-group output. Marantz produces something more honest and less powerful. The trade is real.
The comparison to Scheuer and Cofnas the Alexander frame supports is sharp. All three are carrier-group figures performing civic-religious work. Scheuer attempted to construct trauma where none had generalized, then watched generalization occur in a direction he could not control, then spent the rest of his career performing counter-ritual against the dominant construction. Cofnas attempts counter-ritual against an established construction within his institutional sphere, drawing on countercurrents that have grown stronger in recent years. Marantz performs ritual labor in support of an established construction whose generalization has stalled at the boundary of his audience.
Each occupies a different position in the carrier-group apparatus, and each produces a different shape of work as a consequence. Scheuer escalates because his counter-ritual is not authorized by his institutional environment. Cofnas remains analytic because his institutional context still rewards the analytic register. Marantz hovers in the ambivalent middle because his institutional context rewards exactly the kind of careful, ethnographically informed prose he produces, and that prose cannot generate the ritual charge that would push the construction it serves into civic generalization.
The man is not a failure. The construction he serves is not a fraud. Both have done work the previous decades have rewarded. What the Alexander frame makes visible is the structural condition that limits both. The carrier-group apparatus only produces civic-religious authority when external conditions support generalization. Conditions in fragmented civic orders rarely support generalization. Most carrier-group work, across history, has produced bounded effects within particular institutional spheres. Watergate is the exception, not the rule. Marantz lives and works inside the rule.

Charisma and Social Paradoxes

Marantz came up through the magazine’s fact-checking ranks, became a contract writer, then a staff writer, and has built his reputation on long-form pieces about online culture, the alt-right, social media platforms, populism, and the architecture of attention. Antisocial: Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation in 2019 is the book that defined his public reputation. The book is reported journalism that follows specific figures (Mike Cernovich, Cassandra Fairbanks, Reddit’s leadership, Twitter’s leadership) through specific events to argue that the open internet has been weaponized by bad-faith actors who exploit the architecture for political gain. The book is well-reported in the sense that Marantz spent real time with the figures he profiles. The book is also a coalition document in the sense that it organizes its reporting around a thesis the New Yorker’s audience already holds.
The first paradox Marantz executes is the disinterested-reporter paradox. The reporter goes among the bad people, listens to them, gets close enough to capture their idiom, and then produces an account that confirms the moral framework his audience already operates inside. The audience needs the reporter to have gone close enough that the account is vivid. The audience also needs the account to confirm the moral framework. The two needs are in tension. If the reporter goes too close and starts to humanize the subjects, the moral framework gets compromised. If the reporter stays too distant, the account loses the vividness the audience wants. The paradox is solved by the reporter’s stance. Marantz’s stance is the educated, ironic, slightly horrified observer who can render the alt-right voices accurately while never letting the rendering tip into sympathy. The stance has to be performed continuously. Every paragraph that gets close to a subject has to be balanced by a paragraph that re-establishes the distance.
Pinsof’s framework treats this stance as a social paradox in his exact technical sense. The reporter pursues access to subjects he is going to portray unfavorably while appearing to pursue access for understanding’s sake. The subjects know the reporter will produce an unflattering account but cooperate anyway because the access produces visibility, which has value even when the framing is hostile. The audience reads the resulting account as fair-minded reporting because the access was real and the rendering was vivid. Each side gets something out of the arrangement. The subjects get visibility. The audience gets the moral confirmation it sought. The reporter gets the byline and the reputation. The arrangement works because the strategic dimensions stay concealed from each side. The subjects tell themselves the access will produce a fair account. The audience tells itself the access produced a fair account. The reporter tells himself he is doing journalism rather than writing morality tales. The concealment is what lets the paradox produce value for everyone.
The cue-to-signal-to-negative-cue trajectory applies to Marantz as well. Antisocial in 2019 read as honest cue. The reporter had gone among the figures and produced detailed accounts. The book’s analysis of the platforms was substantive. The framing thesis was contested but the reporting was real. By the early 2020s the New Yorker pieces started reading more clearly as signal. The Marantz profile of the alt-right figure, the Marantz piece on the populist rally, the Marantz dispatch from the platform-policy debate all read as performances of a stance the audience expected. The stance has become predictable. The audience knows what the Marantz piece will conclude before reading it. The conclusion is part of the contract between writer and audience. The piece confirms the framework the audience uses to organize its political commitments. The cue has become signal. Each subsequent piece adds to the audience’s confidence in the framework rather than testing the framework against new evidence.
The signal flips into negative cue for readers outside the New Yorker’s primary audience. The same Marantz piece that reads as fair-minded reporting to a New Yorker subscriber reads as predictable framing to a Substack reader who has watched the same pattern across dozens of pieces. The negative-cue reading explains things the cue reading cannot explain. It explains why Marantz’s pieces never produce conclusions that complicate the audience’s existing framework. It explains why the alt-right figures profiled never come across as complex enough to threaten the moral architecture the magazine operates inside. It explains why the platforms always come across as complicit in the radicalization the pieces describe rather than as one factor among many in a more complicated dynamic. The negative-cue reading is parsimonious. It explains the pattern without requiring a separate account for each piece.
The second paradox Marantz executes is the elite-critical-of-elite-power paradox. The New Yorker is one of the most elite publications in American journalism. Its writers operate from inside the institutional structures that produce and reproduce elite cultural authority. Marantz writes for this publication while presenting himself as a critic of elite power, particularly the elite power exercised through tech platforms. The paradox requires that Marantz’s elite credential give him the standing to speak about elite power while his criticism of elite power gives him the legitimacy to be read as something other than an apologist for the elite. Both halves have to operate at once. The Cambridge MFA-style prose, the New Yorker access, the ability to spend months on a single piece, all signal elite belonging. The criticism of Facebook and Twitter and the alt-right ecosystem signals dissent from elite complacency. The combination is what makes the position work.
Pinsof’s framework predicts that this paradox is stable in the New Yorker context but brittle outside it. The audience that pays for the New Yorker is the audience that wants exactly this combination. Elite enough to be readable as serious. Critical enough to flatter the audience’s self-image as critically minded. The paradox sustains because the audience benefits from it and pays for the magazine that produces it. Outside the New Yorker context, where audiences do not share the same coalition commitments, the paradox reads differently. To a populist reader, Marantz is a credentialed elite criticizing other credentialed elites for being insufficiently effective at maintaining the cultural authority Marantz himself benefits from. The criticism reads as intra-elite jockeying for who gets to define cultural legitimacy. The dissent that flatters the New Yorker audience does not flatter audiences outside the magazine’s coalition. The paradox is coalition-relative.
The third paradox is the I-have-watched-the-bad-things paradox. Marantz’s expertise on the alt-right and online radicalization comes from having spent extended time with the figures he profiles. The expertise validates the analysis. The audience trusts Marantz because he has done the immersion. The paradox is that the immersion is itself ideologically coded as morally suspect. To spend serious time with Mike Cernovich is to risk being contaminated by Mike Cernovich. Marantz solves the paradox by performing the immersion while continuously performing his immunity to it. The pieces include moments where the subject says something that should make a normal person recoil, and Marantz’s prose registers the recoil for the reader. The reader is reassured. Marantz has gone close but has not been compromised. The expertise is validated and the moral architecture is preserved.
The Pinsof framework treats this as a paradox of compromised purity. The expertise depends on the contamination. The legitimacy depends on the absence of contamination. Both are required. The performance of recoil is what reconciles them. The performance has to be continuous because any lapse would compromise the legitimacy. The audience sustains the paradox by reading the recoil as authentic. The reading is mostly correct. Marantz almost certainly does feel the recoil he performs. The paradox does not require the recoil to be fake. It requires the recoil to be visible to the audience and to be visible to Marantz as the marker of his immunity. The arrangement is symbiotic. Both sides need the recoil to register. Both sides participate in registering it.
The fourth paradox is the storyteller-at-the-platform paradox. The New Yorker as institution has its own coalition position to maintain. The magazine has to be sufficiently relevant to political and cultural life that its audience pays for it. The magazine has to be sufficiently above-the-fray that its readers can feel they are not just consuming partisan content. Marantz operates inside this institutional paradox. His pieces have to be relevant enough to be read. They cannot be so partisan that they violate the magazine’s positioning. The constraint shapes the pieces. The shaping is invisible to readers who share the magazine’s coalition position. It is visible to readers outside that position as a particular stylistic register that signals the magazine’s brand more than it signals the underlying reality the pieces describe.
The cue-to-signal trajectory applies here too. The New Yorker style was an honest cue in earlier decades. The style emerged from real editorial practices, real fact-checking, real long-form discipline. Across recent years the style has hardened into signal. New Yorker readers can identify a New Yorker piece by its first paragraph because the style has become predictable enough to be recognizable. The recognition is the signal. The piece is doing the New Yorker thing. The doing is what the audience subscribes for. The audience does not read the magazine to be surprised. It reads the magazine to be confirmed in its sense that the world makes sense in the way the magazine says it does. The style is the confirmation. The signal is stable as long as the audience benefits from it. The signal becomes negative cue for readers outside the audience who have learned to read the style as performance.
Marantz’s specific contribution to the magazine’s brand is the alt-right beat. The beat exists because the audience needs to be assured that the alt-right is being watched and that the watching is producing a coherent moral verdict. Marantz delivers the verdict reliably. The reliability is what makes him the right writer for the beat. A writer who occasionally produced pieces that complicated the verdict would be the wrong writer. The audience does not pay for complication on this beat. The audience pays for confirmation. The arrangement is symbiotic. The audience gets what it pays for. Marantz gets the byline and the book contracts and the fellowship invitations. The alt-right figures profiled get the visibility they sought when they cooperated with the access. Everyone involved in the arrangement gets something. The strategic dimensions stay concealed from each side. Each side tells itself a flattering story about why it participates.
The deepest paradox in the Marantz case is the one Pinsof’s framework reaches that other frameworks miss. Marantz is a sophisticated analyst of how attention economies work. Antisocial is an extended argument about how the architecture of online platforms rewards bad-faith actors who optimize for engagement. The argument is largely correct. The paradox is that Marantz himself operates inside an attention economy with similar dynamics. The New Yorker pays him because his pieces generate attention. The pieces generate attention partly because they confirm the moral architecture the audience seeks. The optimization for the audience’s confirmation is the same dynamic Marantz analyzes in the platforms. The platforms are designed to give the user what the user wants. The magazine is designed to give the subscriber what the subscriber wants. Both are attention economies. Both reward optimization for audience satisfaction over optimization for truth. Marantz analyzes one and operates inside the other. The analysis applies to the analyst.
The Pinsof framework predicts that this kind of recursion stays invisible to the analyst because seeing it would dissolve the position the analyst occupies. Marantz cannot see his own attention-economy position because seeing it would compromise the attention-economy position. The audience cannot see the attention-economy position of the magazine because seeing it would compromise the audience’s experience of consuming the magazine as serious journalism. Both sides need the recursion to stay invisible. The arrangement requires the invisibility. Pinsof’s framework calls this symbiotic deception. The deception is real. The participants are sincere. Neither side benefits from the recognition. The framework predicts the recursion will not be acknowledged from inside. It can be analyzed from outside, by writers who do not benefit from the arrangement. The analysis cannot reproduce inside the arrangement what it can produce outside.
A few specific Marantz pieces are worth running through the framework to see how it applies in practice.
The Mike Cernovich profile from 2016 is the cleanest cue case. The reporter went among the alt-right figure, captured the idiom, produced an account that confirmed the moral architecture the audience expected. The piece was reported journalism. The framing was a coalition document. Both descriptions are accurate. The cue-signal-negative-cue framework would say this piece was honest cue at the time. The reporter had done the immersion, the rendering was vivid, the framing was contested but defensible. Read in 2026 the piece reads more clearly as signal. The same author has produced enough similar pieces that the reader knows what to expect from a Marantz alt-right profile before reading it. The expectation is part of the contract. The contract is what the magazine sells.
The 2019 Antisocial book is the inflection point. The book is more substantive than any single profile because the long form requires more substance to sustain. The book also locks in the position. After Antisocial Marantz becomes the New Yorker’s resident expert on alt-right and platform dynamics. The expertise is real and is also a brand. The brand requires continued production of pieces that fit the brand. The production is what the magazine pays for. The brand starts as cue (the reporter who did the work) and becomes signal (the writer whose byline guarantees a particular kind of piece) over the subsequent years.
The post-2020 pieces operate increasingly clearly as signal. The framing is predictable. The conclusions are predictable. The pieces are still well-written. The fact-checking is still rigorous. The substance is still substantial. The cue function has weakened relative to the signal function. A reader could write the conclusion of a Marantz piece from the headline. The piece confirms what the headline implies. The audience does not read the piece for surprise. It reads the piece for confirmation. The signal function has eaten the cue function.
The 2024 piece on Substack hosting Nazi content is a useful case for the framework. The piece argues that Substack’s permissive content policy enables Nazi material to find audiences. The framing is coalition material. The framing is also defensible reporting on a real phenomenon. The two readings sit alongside each other. The piece reads as cue if you share the magazine’s coalition position. It reads as signal if you do not. The negative-cue reading is also available, since Substack happens to be the platform where many of Marantz’s coalition rivals (Cofnas among them) have built audiences that the New Yorker cannot easily reach. Whether the piece is a serious examination of platform governance or an instrument for delegitimizing the platform that hosts the magazine’s competitors depends on the reader’s coalition position. Pinsof’s framework would say it is both. The arrangement requires that it be both. The symbiotic deception lets the piece function as honest reporting for the audience that needs that reading and as coalition delegitimization for the audience that produces the work.
The cleanest contrast with Cofnas is the institutional positioning. Cofnas operates outside mainstream institutions and depends on dissident audiences and Substack subscribers and Free Speech Union legal backing. Marantz operates inside the most prestigious institution in American magazine journalism and depends on the audience that institution has built across decades. The Pinsof framework applies to both because the framework is institution-neutral. Coalition psychology operates the same way in elite institutional positions and in dissident extra-institutional positions. The paradoxes are different in content but identical in structure. Cofnas’s paradoxes require concealing his coalition function under the appearance of careful philosophy. Marantz’s paradoxes require concealing his coalition function under the appearance of fair-minded reporting. Both sets of paradoxes work as long as the audiences participating in them benefit from the participation. Both sets become brittle when the audiences shift or when the strategic functions become visible.
The trajectory analysis I gave for Cofnas applies in different form to Marantz. Cofnas is in phase three or four of a trajectory that has accelerated. Marantz is in a more stable position because the New Yorker’s institutional structure protects the paradoxes more effectively than the Substack-and-X economy protects Cofnas’s. The protections include the magazine’s editorial process, which catches some of the auditor failures Cofnas’s recent essays exhibit. They include the magazine’s audience, which has been trained across decades to read the magazine’s conventions as substance. They include the magazine’s brand, which absorbs and reframes individual writers’ positioning into the magazine’s larger reputation. Marantz benefits from being inside an institution whose paradoxes are more durable than the paradoxes a single Substack writer can sustain. The framework predicts that institutional writers experience the paradoxes more stably than dissident writers, and that institutional writers are correspondingly less likely to see their own paradoxes than dissident writers, because the institution’s stability removes the pressure that might otherwise produce visibility.
The honest application of the Pinsof framework to Marantz produces the same kind of conclusion the framework produced for Cofnas, in different content. Marantz operates a set of paradoxes that serve coalition functions. The paradoxes are mostly invisible to him because the institution he works inside benefits from his not seeing them. The audience benefits from the paradoxes by reading sophisticated journalism that confirms its commitments. The subjects of the pieces benefit from the visibility even when the framing is hostile. The magazine benefits from the brand the pieces sustain. Each participant gets something out of the arrangement. The arrangement requires symbiotic deception. The deception is real. The sincerity is real. Neither cancels the other.
Cofnas and Marantz operate as mirror coalition writers. Cofnas writes for the heterodox-dissident-hereditarian audience in venues that audience controls. Marantz writes for the New Yorker-mainstream-progressive audience in venues that audience controls. Each writer’s coalition has built infrastructure that supports the writer’s paradoxes. Each writer’s paradoxes serve the coalition’s needs. Each writer is sincere in operating the paradoxes. Each writer’s audience is sincere in reading them. The two coalitions read each other as bad-faith operators because the paradoxes that look like sincerity from inside the coalition look like strategy from outside. The framework treats this asymmetry as constitutive of coalition psychology.

Interaction Ritual Chains by Randall Collins

Marantz is the journalist who entered other people’s ritual chains as a participant-observer, attempted to remain outside the rituals he was documenting, and found that the ritual chains operate on visitors whether the visitors consent or not.
Marantz writes for The New Yorker. The magazine is one of the most successful sustained ritual operations in American letters. It has been running its chain since 1925. The chain has charged a recognizable bundle of symbols, including a particular prose register, a particular set of editorial conventions, a particular relation between writer and fact-checker, a particular weekly rhythm of publication. The barrier to outsiders is the editorial process. The mutual focus is the production of long-form reported pieces that meet the magazine’s standard. The shared mood is the seriousness that fact-checked careful prose requires. Bodily co-presence is partial in the modern era, but the magazine maintains an office, holds editorial meetings, and runs the standard corporate-rituals of staff-writer life.
Collins’s framework treats long-running publication chains as habitats that shape their writers. The writer who has been at the magazine for years internalizes the magazine’s standards, the magazine’s preferred moves, the magazine’s voice. The internalization is not deliberate ideological capture. It is the ordinary operation of the ritual chain. The writer is in the chain. The chain is in the writer. The prose shows it.
Marantz has been at The New Yorker since 2011. The chain has had thirteen years of operation on his prose. The voice in Antisocial is recognizably the New Yorker voice. The book reports on subjects the magazine would not have given a staff writer twenty years earlier, but the voice doing the reporting is the voice the magazine has been training across generations. The detached observer with literary range. The careful sentence. The willingness to follow the strange material at length. The eventual moral framing in terms the magazine’s audience can absorb.
The work that produced Antisocial required Marantz to enter the interaction ritual chains of figures he was reporting on. He attended Mike Cernovich’s events. He spent time with Lucian Wintrich, Cassandra Fairbanks, Gavin McInnes, Richard Spencer, Mike Enoch, Jared Taylor, and assorted lesser figures of the 2015-to-2018 alt-right and edgelord scenes. He attended the deplora-ball after the 2016 election. He observed the Charlottesville rally. He spent time at the Daily Stormer adjacent gatherings. He was present at the InfoWars studios. He went where the rituals were happening.
Collins’s framework treats this kind of embedded observation as inherently complicated. Pure observation of a ritual without participation is, in Collins’s strict terms, almost impossible. The ritual works on whoever is in the room. The bodily co-presence supplies signals to all participants. The mutual focus on the speaker, the speaker’s shared mood with the audience, the barrier to outsiders that marks the room as one kind of room rather than another, all of these operate on the journalist as much as on the believers in the room. The journalist can resist some of the operation by holding the symbols at arm’s length, but the bodily signals the ritual produces still arrive at the body. The body responds in ways the conscious observer cannot fully control.
Marantz’s prose in Antisocial documents this experience. He notes his own discomfort at finding the events sometimes funny. He notes catching himself laughing at jokes he disapproved of. He notes the moments where the rituals worked on him in spite of his commitments. The honesty of the reporting on these moments is one of the book’s strengths. He was inside the rituals. The rituals operated on him. He noticed the operation. He recorded what he noticed.
Several of Marantz’s subjects were charismatic in Collins’s strict sense. Cernovich generated rituals around himself. Spencer at certain moments could command a room. Yiannopoulos in his peak period could produce extraordinary energy in audiences. Marantz watched these men do their work. He recorded what they did. He was less susceptible than the audiences who came pre-disposed to the symbols, but he was not fully insulated.
Collins’s framework predicts that charismatic figures can attract observers as well as believers because the ingredients of the charisma operate on whoever is in bodily co-presence. The journalist who finds his subject magnetic against his ideological commitments is reporting accurately on what is happening in the interaction. Marantz reports the magnetism in several scenes. He does not pretend to have been immune. The lack of pretense is the journalistic asset. He is reporting on the rituals, including their operation on himself.
The framework also predicts that charismatic ritual leaders draw their energy in part from the audiences they assemble. Spencer needed the audience that came to his rallies. Cernovich needed the followers who watched his streams. Yiannopoulos needed the crowds at his college appearances. The ritual is not a one-way transmission. It is a mutual generation. The leader supplies the focus. The audience supplies the energy. The leader concentrates the energy and reflects it back. The audience receives the reflection and amplifies it. The cycle compounds. Collins’s framework treats this as the normal operation of charismatic ritual. Marantz’s reporting captures the cycle in operation. The book is in part a record of the cycle running for several years across many sites.
Antisocial was published in 2019 at the moment when the cycle the book documents was beginning to break down. Yiannopoulos had been deplatformed. Spencer’s organization was disintegrating after Charlottesville. Cernovich was pivoting away from the alt-right brand. The Daily Stormer had been chased off mainstream hosting services. The deplatforming campaign that ran from 2017 through 2019 produced what Collins’s framework would predict: a sharp drop in the bodily co-presence available to these movements. The rituals that had been generating energy required venues. The venues were closing. The ritual chains were attenuating because the ingredients were no longer reliably available.
Marantz watched this happen. The book records the closing of venues, the loss of advertising, the loss of payment processors, the loss of social media platforms. The framework Collins supplies tells you what these losses do to ritual chains. The losses do not just remove technical infrastructure. The losses remove the ability to assemble bodily co-presence. The remaining chains run at lower density. The energy generation drops. The participants who needed the chains to charge their symbols and supply their emotional energy face the same depletion that affects all ritual participants whose primary chain has lost its venue.
The post-2019 history of these movements is the predictable consequence. Some figures faded. Some pivoted to other movements. Some maintained smaller versions on alternate platforms. The alt-right as a coherent ritual ecosystem mostly stopped functioning. The Trump presidency had given some of the movements oxygen they could not generate on their own. The deplatforming withdrew the venues. The two together broke the chain.
Each of Marantz’s pieces in The New Yorker is a ritual operation in Collins’s terms. The reporter goes out, finds material, assembles it inside the magazine’s voice, sends it through fact-checking, and delivers it to the magazine’s audience. The audience reads. The audience completes the ritual by reading. The shared mood between writer and reader is established by the magazine’s recognizable register. The barrier to outsiders is the level of attention required to read New Yorker prose at length. The mutual focus is the subject of the piece. The bodily co-presence is absent in the strict sense but partially supplied by the regularity of the magazine’s appearance and the shared awareness of the magazine’s existence as an institution.
The pieces Marantz produced from his alt-right reporting succeeded at this ritual operation. The audience that reads The New Yorker was given access to the rituals Marantz had documented, in a form that the magazine’s audience could read without entering the original rituals themselves. This is the function magazines like The New Yorker have always served. The reader gets the embedded material at one remove. The reader does not have to attend the deplora-ball. The reader gets to know what the deplora-ball was like through Marantz’s prose. The chain that produced Marantz’s prose carries the reader some distance into the chains he was observing. The reader does not enter the alt-right rituals, but the reader is informed about them.
Collins’s framework treats this as the normal operation of literary journalism in modernity. The reader who cannot personally enter ritual sites of interest reads about them. The reading provides a thin version of the experience. The thin version is enough for the reader’s purposes. The professional journalist’s job is to produce the thin version with enough fidelity that the reader gets a useful picture. Marantz did this job at high quality. The pieces and the book remain among the better records of what the alt-right ritual ecosystem felt like at its peak.
A substantial part of Antisocial argues that the major social media platforms had built systems that selected for and rewarded the kind of charismatic ritual operation the alt-right was running. The platforms were ritual hosts. The platforms supplied the bodily-co-presence-substitute that the new movements needed. The platforms charged with their attention metrics what Collins’s framework would call symbols, and the symbols circulated through the platforms’ algorithms in ways that selected for high-engagement material. The high-engagement material was usually the material that produced the strongest emotional reactions. The strongest emotional reactions were often produced by the kind of polarizing material the alt-right specialized in. The platforms were therefore amplifying the rituals.
Marantz’s analysis is correct in its Collins-relevant features. The platforms had built ritual hosts. The hosts selected for the rituals that generated the most engagement. The engagement was the platforms’ revenue. The platforms could not stop selecting for engagement without breaking their business models. The selection produced the alt-right amplification. The alt-right amplification produced the cultural-political moment Marantz was reporting on. The chain ran from the engineering choices through the algorithms through the user behavior to the political effects. Marantz traced the chain.
The deplatforming response was the platforms’ attempt to break specific ritual chains they had been hosting. The response worked at the level of the specific chains. The response did not change the underlying selection. The platforms still select for engagement. The selection still amplifies whatever rituals can produce the engagement. The amplified rituals after 2019 have been different from the alt-right rituals before 2019. The selection mechanism has remained the same. Collins’s framework predicts that any platform that selects for engagement will produce charismatic-ritual amplification of whatever movements can supply the engagement. The movements change. The selection persists. The amplification continues.
Collins’s framework asks where the writer’s own emotional energy comes from. Marantz’s energy across the period of the alt-right reporting came from several sources. The New Yorker chain supplied institutional energy. The reporter’s own progressive politics supplied a kind of motivational energy through clear opposition to what he was reporting on. The encounter with the rituals he was documenting supplied energy through the bodily mechanisms Collins identifies, including the uncomfortable energy of finding the material strange and disturbing. The book project itself supplied the goal-oriented energy of producing a sustained work.
The framework predicts that journalists who report for years on movements they oppose face a particular kind of depletion. The opposition is energizing in the short run but exhausting over the long run. The constant exposure to material the journalist disapproves of produces what some of Marantz’s New Yorker colleagues have described in their own reporting as a kind of soul-fatigue. The fatigue is the predictable result of running a ritual chain whose primary mood is opposition to other people’s rituals. The opposition cannot generate the same kind of sustained energy that participation in rituals one endorses can generate. The energy drops over time.
Marantz’s post-2019 output has shifted away from the alt-right reporting toward other subjects. He has covered other topics. He has written about social media policy. He has written about other political and cultural questions. The shift is consistent with what Collins’s framework predicts. The writer who has been running on opposition energy for several years needs to find other sources or the chain attenuates. Marantz found other sources. The output continues. The intensity of the alt-right years has not been replicated, because the conditions that produced that intensity have not been replicated. The framework predicts this. The writer would need a new charismatic ritual ecosystem to embed in, and the new ecosystem would have to be at the energy level the alt-right was at its peak. No such ecosystem has emerged for him to embed in.
Collins’s framework gets sharp when Marantz is placed next to the figures he wrote about. Mike Cernovich at his peak was running a charismatic ritual chain that produced enormous emotional energy in his followers and in himself. Yiannopoulos at his peak was running a similar chain at higher density. Spencer at his peak was attempting to run such a chain and partially succeeding. Each man was in the spike phase of a ritual chain. Each man’s prose, video, and stagecraft were the residue of the chain running hot.
The framework predicts that spike-phase charismatic chains burn through their fuel faster than steady-output institutional chains. The spike phase generates more energy per unit time but cannot sustain the rate. The chain attenuates. The participant who has built his career on the spike-phase output faces depletion when the spike ends. The post-spike careers of Marantz’s subjects show the depletion clearly. Cernovich produces less and reaches fewer people than at his peak. Yiannopoulos has cycled through several smaller versions of the original operation. Spencer has effectively withdrawn. Each man’s emotional energy and institutional reach has dropped.
Marantz, by contrast, has a steady-output institutional chain at The New Yorker. The chain produces less energy per unit time than the spike-phase chains his subjects were running. The chain produces energy steadily across years. The framework predicts the trade-off. Marantz cannot match the per-piece intensity that his subjects could produce at their peaks. Marantz can produce work at his level for decades while his subjects burn out in years. The trade-off is the structural difference between institutional and charismatic ritual chains. The framework does not say one is better than the other. The framework says they have different shapes. Marantz chose the institutional shape. His subjects chose the charismatic shape. The shapes produced the careers the framework predicts.
The framework also clarifies an ethical question Marantz’s reporting raises and that he addresses in his prose. The journalist who embeds in rituals he disapproves of, generates traffic for those rituals through his reporting, and amplifies the figures he is reporting on through the act of reporting on them, faces a real puzzle. The amplification effect is documented. Mainstream coverage of obscure online figures has often increased their reach. Marantz’s pieces and book have been read by people who then sought out the figures Marantz was profiling. Some fraction of those readers were drawn to the figures. The journalism produced both effects. The framework Collins supplies says that writing about a ritual is itself a kind of ritual, and the ritual of writing carries the symbols of the original ritual to new audiences. The audiences receive the symbols at one remove. Some of them complete the ritual the original symbols were designed for. The journalism extends the chain it was documenting.
Marantz acknowledges this in the book. He does not have a clean solution. The acknowledgment is the honest move. The framework does not provide a clean solution either. The framework only describes what happens. Writing about rituals extends them. Refusing to write about them leaves them unobserved by the wider audience. Both options have costs. The journalist chooses among the costs. Marantz chose to write. The chain extended through his writing. Some of the extension served his goals. Some of it served the goals he opposed. The framework predicts both. The framework does not resolve the question. The journalist resolves it case by case. The resolution is rarely fully satisfying.
Marantz is the participant-observer who tried to maintain the buffer between observer and observed and partially failed at it because the framework predicts that buffers always partially fail when the rituals are running. The book records the failure honestly. The honesty is the asset. The framework can be applied to many cases of journalism on movements, and the same patterns will emerge. The journalist enters the ritual. The ritual operates on the journalist. The journalist records the operation. The recording is more useful when it includes the operation than when it pretends the journalist was insulated.
Marantz’s prose stays inside the New Yorker register because the New Yorker chain has been running on him for thirteen years. The register has limits. It cannot fully convey what the alt-right rituals felt like to the people who completed them as believers. The prose can only convey what the rituals felt like to a thoughtful skeptic in the room. The conveying is incomplete by the nature of the chain producing it. The framework predicts the incompleteness. The book is the best the chain could produce. The chain is the chain. The book is what the chain produced.

Marantz as Pseudoargument: A Pinsof Reading

The New Yorker profile and the long-form journalistic book are registers that present themselves as inquiry. The conventions are familiar. The writer immerses himself in the world he is covering. He spends time with his subjects. He reports what he sees and hears. He arranges the material into a narrative that allows the reader to see the world the writer has entered. The form has the markers of careful observation. The prose is polished. The fact-checking apparatus of The New Yorker is one of the most rigorous in American journalism. The book carries copious endnotes. Names, dates, and quotations are accurate within the conventions of the genre.
The first thing Pinsof’s framework registers is that surface accuracy is not the same as argumentative honesty. A pseudoargument can be factually accurate at the level of individual claims while performing operations that fit the function of tribal performance. The diagnostic is structural. It asks how the material is arranged, what work the arrangement does, and whether the form fits the function the work claims for itself. Marantz claims to be doing inquiry into how online extremism captured a part of American culture. The diagnostic asks whether the form of the work fits this function or whether it fits some other one.
The diagnostic check produces several findings.
Marantz does not engage with the strongest versions of the views he is covering. The figures he profiles are real, and the views they hold are real, but the views are presented in their most rhetorically vulnerable forms rather than in their strongest analytical forms. When Marantz covers a figure like Mike Cernovich, the coverage emphasizes the figure’s most provocative tweets, his most embarrassing moments, his most pseudo-philosophical posturing. When he covers more substantive figures from the dissident-right intellectual ecosystem, the same selection function operates. The book includes brief encounters with thinkers whose work would require sustained engagement to refute, but the encounters are framed to display the thinkers as social phenomena. The strongest versions of the dissident-right critique of mainstream institutions, of progressive cultural enforcement, of demographic transformation, or of post-1965 American politics do not appear in their strongest forms. They appear filtered through the social and rhetorical failings of the figures who hold them.
Pinsof’s framework reads this selection as a sign that the function of the work is not persuasion of skeptics. Persuasion would require engaging the dissident-right view at its strongest and showing why even the strong version fails. Marantz’s work does not attempt this. It engages the dissident-right view at its weakest and shows why the weak version fails. The reader who is already persuaded that the dissident right is contemptible has his prior confirmed. The reader who is uncertain is not given the materials he would need to evaluate the case on its merits. The reader who is sympathetic to dissident-right analyses recognizes immediately that his views are not being engaged and has no reason to update.
The work performs the rallying function for its target readership. The New Yorker’s readership is heavily concentrated in the professional managerial class, in coastal cities, in academic and media institutions, and in the broader cultural infrastructure that the dissident right has positioned itself against. This readership has its own coalition identity, its own shared references, its own villains, and its own analytical reflexes. Marantz’s work creates common knowledge for this coalition. It establishes a shared narrative of how the country went wrong, who is responsible, and what kind of people the responsible parties are. The narrative is sophisticated and well-written and carries the institutional weight of a magazine that has been a coalition flagship for decades. Pinsof’s framework predicts that pseudoargument operates most powerfully when it serves a coalition that needs shared knowledge, and Marantz’s work fits the prediction precisely.
The rationalization function operates through the journalistic apparatus. The endnotes, the fact-checking, the embed methodology, and the institutional standing of The New Yorker all do work for the reader. The reader is given permission to trust the analysis on the strength of the institutional credentials rather than on the strength of the analysis. He does not need to evaluate whether Marantz’s framing of the figures he covers is the most accurate framing available, because The New Yorker has fact-checked the piece. He does not need to evaluate whether the embed produced an accurate picture or a curated one, because the conventions of long-form journalism present embed work as a window onto reality. Pinsof’s framework reads this as an appeal-to-authority operation performing the rationalization function. The credentials carry the conclusions, and the conclusions are the conclusions the audience came to read.
The status-attack function dominates the work. The figures Marantz profiles are subjects of sustained status attack across hundreds of pages. The attacks are not crude. They are achieved through selection of detail, through tonal cues, through the placement of unflattering anecdotes at points of maximum rhetorical effect, through the framing of moments that invite the reader to feel embarrassment or contempt for the subject. The technique is among the most accomplished forms of long-form journalistic status attack in contemporary American writing. A reader who finishes a Marantz profile of a dissident-right figure has not been given an analysis of the figure’s ideas. He has been given a portrait that lowers the figure’s social standing in the eyes of the readership the magazine serves. The lowering is the point of the genre, even when the genre presents itself as inquiry into ideas. Pinsof’s framework reads this as a textbook status-attack operation, and it reads the literary sophistication of the technique as evidence that the operation is performing its function with unusual efficiency.
The status-defense function operates for Marantz’s coalition. The mainstream institutions that have come under attack from the dissident right are defended throughout the work, often by negative comparison rather than by positive argument. The dissident right is presented as so contemptible that the question of whether its critiques of mainstream institutions have merit drops out of view. The reader does not need to evaluate whether progressive cultural enforcement has the features the dissident right ascribes to it, because the people making the criticism are the kind of people Marantz has shown them to be. The status defense of the progressive coalition is achieved through the status attack on the coalition’s critics.
The concealment function operates through the conventions of the magazine profile. Marantz presents himself as an observer rather than as a coalition combatant. The framing positions him as a journalist doing reporting, not as a member of one tribe rendering members of another tribe for the consumption of his own. The framing is necessary because, as Pinsof points out, overt tribal performance loses status and effectiveness. The work has to present itself as inquiry to do its rallying and rationalizing work. Marantz performs the inquiry persona consistently. He uses the conventions of curiosity, of careful observation, of charitable engagement at moments where charitable engagement makes the eventual unflattering portrait more devastating. The conventions are part of the operation. Pinsof’s framework reads them as the most sophisticated form of the concealment function pseudoargument requires.
A complication is worth dwelling on, because it bears on whether the framework’s verdict is fair. Marantz is sometimes correct on the merits. The figures he covers are sometimes the figures he describes them as being. Some of the dissident-right ecosystem includes grifters, fantasists, opportunists, and people whose intellectual seriousness does not survive close inspection. Marantz’s portraits of these figures are often accurate. A framework that classified all unflattering coverage of a political coalition as pseudoargument would be useless. Pinsof’s framework does not do this. It does not classify by topic or by valence. It classifies by structural fit between form and function.
The substantive question of whether Marantz’s portraits are accurate is separable from the structural question of what the work is doing. The work could be doing pseudoargument while the portraits are accurate. Pinsof’s framework explicitly allows this. A piece of journalism that arrives at correct portraits of its subjects through pseudoargument operations is still doing pseudoargument. The function of the work is not to evaluate competing analyses of American political culture but to consolidate a coalition around a shared understanding that the coalition already accepts. That this understanding happens to be correct about specific figures is a separate matter from what the work is doing as an activity.
The same diagnostic that classified Judging Freedom as pseudoargument despite the show’s predictive successes classifies Marantz’s work as pseudoargument despite its factual accuracy on individual portraits. The structural test does not depend on whether the conclusions are correct. It depends on whether the form fits the function of persuasion. Marantz’s work does not engage the strongest versions of opposing views, does not display the markers of inquiry that real argument requires, treats opposition as confirmation, performs sustained status attack on his subjects, performs sustained status defense of his readership’s coalition, and conceals the operation under the conventions of journalistic objectivity. The work passes the diagnostic for pseudoargument cleanly.
Several additional Pinsof diagnostics check out.
The work treats opposition as confirmation. When the figures Marantz covers respond to his coverage, the responses are folded into the narrative as evidence of the figures’ bad faith rather than as occasions for revision. The structure closes the system. A dissident-right writer who attacks Marantz’s coverage as biased is treated as confirming the bias the coverage describes, because the writer’s attack itself becomes a piece of the dissident-right behavior the coverage was diagnosing. This is the same structure Pinsof identifies in pseudoargument across the political spectrum. The framework cannot meet a falsifying response because the framework absorbs the response as further evidence for the framework.
The work shows little curiosity about counterexamples. Dissident-right figures whose work is more substantive than the rhetorical caricature would allow receive minimal treatment. The intellectual genealogy of dissident-right critiques of mainstream institutions is largely absent. The continuities between dissident-right concerns and concerns that other parts of American political culture have raised receive no acknowledgment. The work does not examine whether progressive cultural enforcement has the features the dissident right ascribes to it, because the work is not built to examine this question. It is built to render the dissident right as a sociological phenomenon, and the rendering proceeds without serious engagement with the substance of the dissident-right critique.
The work is overconfident about the moral status of its subjects. Figures are presented as contemptible without sustained argument that the contempt is warranted. The presentation depends on the cumulative force of selected detail rather than on direct engagement with the figures’ arguments. A reader who agrees with the cumulative impression has been confirmed in his prior. A reader who does not agree has been given no materials for revising. The overconfidence is a tell. Persuasion requires that the reader be given the case against the writer’s conclusion. Tribal rallying does not, and the work does not.
The work engages in deflection. When the dissident-right ecosystem produces figures whose work is harder to dismiss, the discussion shifts to figures whose work is easier to dismiss. When a figure’s career produces an accomplishment that complicates the unflattering portrait, the discussion shifts to a different period of the career or to a different figure entirely. The motion is constant. The framework reads this as a verbal-sparring function. The goal is not to settle a question but to keep moving so that no question gets settled in a way that damages the analysis.
A point of contrast with the previous cases clarifies what is distinctive about Marantz. Duke, Jones, Cofnas in his weakest registers, and Napolitano are all positioned by mainstream institutions as outside the realm of legitimate discourse. The framework’s classification of their work as pseudoargument runs in the same direction as the institutional consensus. Marantz is positioned by mainstream institutions as an exemplary practitioner of careful journalism on a politically charged topic. The framework’s classification of his work as pseudoargument runs against the institutional consensus. The framework either applies in both directions or it applies in neither. Pinsof’s account requires that the framework apply in both directions, and the application to Marantz is the test case.
The framework passes the test. The diagnostics that classify Duke, Jones, and the rest as pseudoargument classify Marantz’s work the same way. The form does not fit the function of persuasion. The form fits the function of coalition consolidation, status attack on the coalition’s enemies, status defense of the coalition itself, and concealment of all of the above under the costume of inquiry. The institutional setting in which the work appears is more prestigious than the settings in which Duke and Jones appear, and the literary craft is more accomplished than the craft Napolitano displays in his interview format. The institutional setting and the craft do not change the structural diagnosis. They change the audience the work reaches and the effectiveness of the operation. The operation is the same.
What is distinctive about Marantz’s case is the level of craft at which the pseudoargument operations are performed. The selection of detail is more skilled than in the Duke or Jones cases. The framing of subjects is more subtle. The status attacks are achieved with greater literary economy. The concealment of the tribal function under the conventions of journalism is more sophisticated than the concealment of the same function under the conventions of theological treatise or racial autobiography. The craft is real, and the framework registers it as a sign that the operation is being performed by a skilled practitioner of a refined version of the genre.
Dissident-right responses have answered the work on its own terms, treating it as journalism that has gotten the facts wrong, and providing counter-portraits that emphasize different details. The strategy is reasonable but partial. If the work is pseudoargument, then disputing its factual claims does not address what the work is doing. The work’s function is tribal consolidation for The New Yorker’s readership, and that function is not defeated by dissident-right counter-portraits, because the readership does not consume dissident-right responses in the first place. The function is defeated, when it is defeated at all, by exposure of the function. Showing what the work is doing as an activity is more damaging to the work than showing that any particular portrait within it is uncharitable.
The structural diagnosis matters more than the topical one. Marantz’s portraits of individual figures can be evaluated case by case, and the evaluation is worth doing. What the evaluation cannot do is unmake the work. The work is not held together by the accuracy of those portraits. It is held together by a coalition function that the portraits serve. The coalition function does not depend on the portraits being unfair. It would operate equally well if the portraits were fair, because the function is not about getting the figures right. It is about giving the readership a shared understanding of what kind of phenomenon the dissident right is, and the shared understanding does the work the readership came to receive.
The applied verdict is that Antisocial and Marantz’s broader body of New Yorker work on the dissident right are pseudoargument of unusual literary accomplishment. The reporting, the embed methodology, the fact-checked endnotes, the polished prose, and the air of careful observation are all parts of a cover story for operations that have nothing to do with persuasion of skeptics. The operations are tribal. The tribe is the professional managerial readership of The New Yorker and adjacent publications. The work rallies, rationalizes, attacks the coalition’s enemies, defends the coalition’s standing, and conceals all of the above under the conventions of journalism. It does each competently enough that the cover has held within its target readership for the better part of a decade.
The work gives its readership a shared understanding that the readership uses for political and social purposes. What the work cannot do is what it claims to do, which is to provide an inquiry into the dissident-right phenomenon that a reader could use to understand the phenomenon on its own terms. A reader who wants that kind of understanding has to read the dissident-right writers in their strongest forms, and to evaluate their arguments. Marantz’s work cannot substitute for this evaluation, because Marantz’s work was never built to perform it.

Explaining the Normative

Andrew Marantz writes from inside the New Yorker about online extremism, the far right, and what he calls the hijacking of the American conversation. His normative vocabulary runs through every paragraph. Norms. Democratic backsliding. Disinformation. Extremism. The public sphere. Turner’s question runs underneath all of it: where does the authority for these terms come from?
Marantz never defends his normative premises. He assumes them. The American conversation has a proper form. Certain people speak inside it. Others seize it illegitimately. The owners are never named, but they are implied. They are the institutions Marantz writes from, the readership he writes for, the professional class that shares his training.
When Marantz calls something extreme, he treats the center as fixed. Turner might press: what establishes this center? Marantz produces no argument. The center is the position of his own coalition, presented as the position of civilization.
Consider his use of “disinformation.” The word looks descriptive. It is normative. To call speech disinformation is to claim the authority to draw the line between truth and falsehood, and to draw that line where one’s coalition draws it. Marantz never defends the authority. He proceeds as if it requires no defense.
Marantz quotes Karl Popper (1902-1994) on the paradox of tolerance, and the citation supplies normative weight. Turner notes that philosophical citation does not stop the question, it relocates it. The authority of philosophy is also a set of professional habits universalized. The regress has no bottom.
His subjects, Mike Cernovich, Milo Yiannopoulos, Cassandra Fairbanks, the Proud Boys, various Reddit communities, get profiled with attention but framed as violations of standards Marantz never states. The standards are the standards of New Yorker liberalism, trained into staff writers over years of editing, citation, and selection. Turner’s claim: these standards are coalition habits dressed as democratic norms.
The “techno-utopians” of Marantz’s subtitle made empirical predictions that failed. The internet did not produce the conversation those men expected. Marantz reads the failure as moral. Turner reads it as predictive. A failed forecast is not a moral collapse, but Marantz’s normative vocabulary cannot tell the difference, because the vocabulary collapses the empirical question into the moral one before the question can be posed.
Marantz writes about Reddit and the “manosphere” as failures of norms. Those spaces have norms. The norms differ from his. The conflict runs norms against norms. Framing it as norms against chaos hides what is happening, which is one coalition naming its own habits “the norms” and a rival coalition’s habits “extremism.” Turner’s lifelong target is this exact move, the conversion of local coalition discipline into universal normative authority by sleight of vocabulary.
When Marantz says “democracy,” he means an arrangement. Liberal institutions. Expert authority. Credentialed journalism. Deference to professional sources. Other arrangements claim the same word. The word does not settle which arrangement has the better claim. Marantz proceeds as if it does, and the proceeding is doing the work the argument should be doing.
The moral seriousness is real. Marantz believes what he writes. Sincerity does not establish authority. His normative claims need empirical grounding, and the grounding he supplies is the agreement of his own professional class with itself.
What is the New Yorker doing when it publishes him? It supplies its readership with evidence for conclusions the readership already holds. The norms are not discovered in the reporting. They precede the reporting. The reporting confirms them. Turner’s framework treats this loop as the central fact about normative discourse in modern professional life. The reader does not learn what the norms are. The reader learns that the norms hold, which the reader already knew.
Marantz writes as if he has access to a normative order that stands above the coalition conflict he describes. He does not. He writes from inside one coalition, defending its habits, using its vocabulary, addressing its members. The reporting is good. The frame is local. The authority is assumed.

The Set

His circle includes several layers. At The New Yorker: David Remnick, Jelani Cobb (b. 1969), Evan Osnos (b. 1976), Jane Mayer (b. 1955), Adam Gopnik (b. 1956), Larissa MacFarquhar (b. 1968), Patrick Radden Keefe (b. 1976), Dexter Filkins (b. 1961), Lawrence Wright (b. 1947), Ronan Farrow (b. 1987), Masha Gessen (b. 1967), Sarah Stillman (b. 1984), Hua Hsu (b. 1977), Vinson Cunningham (b. 1985), Kelefa Sanneh (b. 1975), Jia Tolentino (b. 1988), Rachel Aviv, Naomi Fry, Ian Frazier (b. 1951), Susan Glasser, and Jeffrey Toobin (b. 1960). Tech journalism and the platform beat: Kara Swisher (b. 1962), Casey Newton, Taylor Lorenz (b. 1984), Anna Wiener (b. 1987), Charlie Warzel, Brian Stelter (b. 1985), Max Read, Brandy Zadrozny, Joseph Bernstein, and Ben Smith. Researchers on disinformation, extremism, and platform effects: Yochai Benkler (b. 1964) at Harvard, Zeynep Tufekci (b. 1973) at Princeton, danah boyd (b. 1968), Joan Donovan formerly at Harvard Shorenstein, Renée DiResta formerly at the Stanford Internet Observatory, Whitney Phillips, Alice Marwick, Becca Lewis, Kate Starbird, Robert Pape (b. 1960) at Chicago, and Kathleen Belew. The reporters who cover the religious right and Christian nationalism: Sarah Posner, Jeff Sharlet (b. 1972), Michael Edison Hayden, Talia Lavin, and David Neiwert. The cable and digital opinion adjacent: Chris Hayes (b. 1979) at MSNBC, Rachel Maddow (b. 1973), Ezra Klein, Adam Serwer (b. 1982), Spencer Ackerman (b. 1980), and Will Sommer. Anti-disinformation civil society: Nina Jankowicz (b. 1988), Yael Eisenstat, Maria Ressa (b. 1963), and Jonathan Greenblatt (b. 1971) at the ADL. The criminal justice reform world tied to Marantz through his wife: Bill Keller (b. 1949) at the Marshall Project, Emily Bazelon (b. 1971), Dahlia Lithwick (b. 1968), Michelle Alexander (b. 1967), and Bryan Stevenson (b. 1959). Brooklyn literary friends and adjacent figures: George Saunders (b. 1958), Zadie Smith (b. 1975), Jonathan Safran Foer (b. 1977), Joshua Cohen (b. 1980), and Choire Sicha (b. 1971). Historians and political theorists the set elevates: Timothy Snyder (b. 1969), Robert Paxton (b. 1932), Anne Applebaum, Masha Gessen, Ruth Ben-Ghiat (b. 1965), Steven Levitsky (b. 1968), and Daniel Ziblatt (b. 1972). Older voices honored: Joan Didion (1934-2021), Janet Malcolm (1934-2021), Hannah Arendt (1906-1975), George Orwell (1903-1950), John Hersey (1914-1993), I.F. Stone (1907-1989), William Shawn (1907-1992), A.J. Liebling (1904-1963), Joseph Mitchell (1908-1996), and Daniel Ellsberg (1931-2023). Adam Curtis (b. 1955) sits in a particular spot as the documentary filmmaker the set venerates.

What they value.

Liberal democracy as a fragile inheritance that requires active defense. They read Hungary under Orbán, Turkey under Erdoğan, Russia under Putin, India under Modi, the Philippines under Duterte, Brazil under Bolsonaro, and the United States under Trump as instances of the same broad pattern, and they treat the defense of liberal democracy as an urgent project. The Snyder line “do not obey in advance” from On Tyranny operates as set scripture.

Long-form attention as the journalistic form. The 12,000-word New Yorker feature. The reported book years in the making. The patient profile that follows a subject for years. The set treats slow journalism as ethically superior to hot takes and viral content. Marantz’s profiles of Mike Cernovich (b. 1977), of alt-right figures, of platform executives, exemplify the approach: attentive, character-driven, structured within an explicit moral frame the subject cannot escape.

Concern about technology platforms and their effects on democratic discourse. Facebook, Twitter pre-Musk, YouTube algorithms, TikTok, Telegram, Substack. The set treats Section 230 reform, content moderation, algorithmic transparency, and platform accountability as central questions. The platforms produce harms that better governance might reduce.

Anti-fascism in the older sense. Not the street antifa of Portland but the intellectual tradition that draws lines from Mussolini to Trump, from Weimar to Charlottesville, from interwar Europe to contemporary America. They take “it can happen here” as a working premise.

Brooklyn-Manhattan urban cosmopolitan liberalism with sympathies leftward of the older New York Times establishment. They support criminal justice reform. They support immigration. They support reproductive rights. They are skeptical of police, prosecutors, corporate power. They have been more sympathetic to AOC, Bernie Sanders, and the DSA wing than the older liberal commentariat. They keep attachment to liberal institutions while feeling some pull from the left critique of those institutions.

Expertise and fact-checking. The misinformation researcher. The platform integrity professional. The academic at Berkman Klein or the Stanford Internet Observatory. The Pulitzer-winning investigative reporter. These figures embody the set’s preferred mode of knowing: credentialed, careful, evidence-based, opposed to populist epistemics.

A particular relationship to identity. Marginalized identity carries epistemic authority on questions of marginalization. The set listens to and elevates Black, Brown, queer, trans, Muslim, and indigenous voices on the relevant questions. Inclusive language and the cultural reforms of the 2010s are taken as substantive moral progress.

Their hero system.

Arendt sits at the head. The Origins of Totalitarianism (1951) and Eichmann in Jerusalem (1963) provide the master frame. The set understands the present through her categories: the masses, the elite, the alliance of the mob and the elite, the banality of evil, the totalitarian state.

Orwell is the second great ancestor. 1984 and the essays on language and politics give the set its vocabulary. Newspeak. Doublethink. The boot stamping on a human face. Orwell’s clarity on propaganda underwrites the disinformation discourse.

The New Yorker tradition. Hersey on Hiroshima. Mitchell on the New York demimonde. Liebling on the press. Shawn as the editor who defended seriousness. Then the modern New Yorker of Tina Brown (b. 1953) and Remnick. Marantz writes inside this lineage and his colleagues read him as continuing it.

The political reporters of the previous generation. Didion on California politics and the 1988 campaign. Malcolm on journalism and its violations. I.F. Stone for adversarial reporting against state power.

Timothy Snyder is the living elder. On Tyranny (2017) and Bloodlands (2010) and his Yale lectures circulate through the set. He gets invited everywhere. He writes a Substack. He testifies before Congress. He is the historian-public-intellectual figure whose authority the set takes as definitive on questions of authoritarianism.

Robert Paxton on fascism. His 2024 statement that Trumpism crossed into fascism was a set-wide event. The aged historian giving permission to use the word was important to them.

Maria Ressa is the contemporary saint. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021 for journalism in the Philippines under Duterte. She embodies the journalist-as-democracy-defender at personal cost. The set takes her as living proof of the stakes.

Adam Curtis holds a particular position. His BBC documentaries from The Century of the Self through HyperNormalisation and Can’t Get You Out of My Head give the set its frame for how power, media, and consciousness interact. He gets named when set members signal where they sit intellectually.

The fired or pressured researchers function as a smaller hero cohort. Joan Donovan after her departure from Harvard. Renée DiResta after the Stanford Internet Observatory was dismantled in 2024. Nina Jankowicz after the Disinformation Governance Board collapse in 2022. Their experiences of institutional retreat under congressional and conservative-media pressure consolidate the set’s sense of being under siege.

Status games.

The New Yorker byline at length is the apex of the set. A 15,000-word feature carries more weight than five 3,000-word pieces. A profile of a major figure outranks a reported essay. The double-issue piece is sacred. The cover story confers visibility.

Book deals at FSG, Knopf, Viking, Random House, Doubleday. The book that grows from the magazine feature. Antisocial for Marantz. On Tyranny for Snyder. How Democracies Die for Levitsky and Ziblatt. Strongmen for Ruth Ben-Ghiat. The Death of Truth for Michiko Kakutani (b. 1955). The trade book that explains the threat.

Fellowships. The MacArthur. The Guggenheim. The Berlin Prize. Knight-Wallace at Michigan. Berkman Klein at Harvard. Stanford CISAC. Russell Sage. Open Society Foundation fellowships. Type Media Center.

Speaking engagements. The New Yorker Festival. The Brooklyn Book Festival. The Strand. The 92nd Street Y. PEN America events. The Aspen Ideas Festival. The Texas Book Festival.

Awards. The National Magazine Award. The Pulitzer for explanatory reporting or feature writing. The Hillman Prize for journalism in service of the common good. The Mirror Award for media criticism.

Cable and podcast appearances. The David Remnick Radio Hour. The Ezra Klein Show. Pod Save America. On the Media hosted by Brooke Gladstone (b. 1955) and Micah Loewinger. Decoder with Nilay Patel. The Daily.

A cross-platform game runs through the set. The byline at the prestigious outlet, plus the substantial book, plus the academic affiliation, plus the Substack or newsletter, plus the podcast presence, plus the public testimony or congressional appearance. Marantz, Snyder, Tufekci, Gessen all play this multi-position game. The set rewards the figure who keeps presence across modes without losing the central institutional anchor.

Endorsements and quote networks. Jia Tolentino blurbs your book. Patrick Radden Keefe tweets about it. Remnick assigns you the next feature. Choire Sicha emails. Anne Helen Petersen writes about it in her newsletter. These signals confer cohort approval.

Distance from certain figures and outlets. The set scores members on distance from Glenn Greenwald (b. 1967), Matt Taibbi (b. 1970), and the Substack heterodox circle. Distance from Bari Weiss and the Free Press. Distance from Joe Rogan (b. 1967) sympathizers. Sympathy for Substack as a writer’s tool but suspicion of the platform’s politics under Chris Best.

Normative claims.

Democracy is fragile and requires active defense by informed citizens, journalists, institutions, and civil society. The 20th-century assumption of permanent democratic consolidation has collapsed and the set holds it as their task to prevent backsliding.

Disinformation poses a structural threat to democratic deliberation. The remedy is some combination of platform accountability, media literacy, legal reform, and direct counter-messaging. The set treats this as a major project.

Far-right movements deserve serious attention rather than dismissal. They are coherent, dangerous, recruit through identifiable pathways, and journalism must understand them to defeat them. Marantz’s reporting embodies this premise.

White Christian nationalism is a coherent ideological threat distinct from older American conservatism. The set takes it as different in kind from the Buckleyite or Reaganite right.

Marginalized voices deserve elevation on the questions of their marginalization. Inclusive language is substantive. Cultural change is part of justice.

Economic redistribution is also justice. The set holds positions to the left of the older liberal establishment on taxation, on labor, on antitrust, on housing. Some take a DSA-adjacent line. Most do not identify with the left but treat its critiques as within the range of legitimate liberal discourse.

Journalism has a normative role: to defend the conditions of free inquiry and democratic life as well as to report. The set rejects strict objectivity in favor of moral clarity on what they take as settled questions of authoritarianism, racism, and climate.

Essentialist claims.

Fascism has a recognizable shape across history and the United States exhibits its features. Paxton’s checklist applies. Mass politics, charismatic leadership, racial scapegoating, contempt for democratic norms, glorification of violence, mythic past: the set finds these in Trumpism and adjacent movements. This is foundational essentialism.

The online radicalization pipeline is real. Young men move from gaming culture through anti-feminist content through alt-right figures through neo-Nazi material in a recognizable progression. Algorithms shape this pipeline. Identifiable actors profit from it. The set takes the pipeline as established even where the empirical literature is more mixed than the public discourse suggests.

Platform architecture produces particular psychological and political effects. Engagement-maximizing algorithms reward outrage. Attention economies degrade democratic deliberation. The set holds this as causal rather than correlational and treats the technical fix as the responsible response.

The American right has undergone a transformation that makes it different in kind from earlier conservatism. The set draws a line at some point in the 2010s and reads the Trump movement as a categorical break. Establishment Republicans of earlier eras get reclassified as the lost moderates.

Authoritarianism follows visible patterns across countries. Hungary, Turkey, Russia, the Philippines, Brazil, India, and the United States exhibit the same configuration. The set holds this comparative-politics frame as more or less settled.

A claim about marginalized identity and epistemic authority. The set treats lived experience of marginalization as conferring knowledge that those outside the marginalization cannot access. This shapes editorial choices, source selection, and the assignment of moral weight in coverage.

A counter-essentialism about whiteness, particularly White male identity in certain configurations. The angry White man without a college degree, the suburban evangelical, the rural traditionalist, the tech founder with libertarian sympathies: the set draws these portraits with confidence and reads political behavior through them. The portraits are typological rather than individual.

The members of the set know they belong to it. They cite each other in books and longform pieces. They appear together on panels. They review each other in the back pages of the magazines they write for. They share the same fellowships. They publish in each other’s newsletters. They take their work as part of a common project of democratic defense against a tide they believe is rising. They believe history will vindicate their warnings. The cost they pay in industry consolidation and platform pressure is, to them, evidence of the importance of the project they have undertaken.

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The Friend of Power: An Intellectual Biography of Jeffrey Goldberg

Jeffrey Mark Goldberg was born in Brooklyn in 1965 and raised in Malverne, a Long Island suburb he later described as Catholic. His parents Daniel and Ellen Goldberg sent him to public school. His grandfather had come from Leova, a shtetl in what is now Moldova. Goldberg grew up with the standard inheritance of postwar American Jews. Holocaust memory close at hand, secular professional ambition, suburban comfort, and a faint sense of standing outside the dominant Christian culture of his town.
The trip to Israel at thirteen reset him. He came home a Zionist in the strong sense. He read Herzl, Jabotinsky, Begin, the founding generation. By the time he arrived at the University of Pennsylvania, he had already decided that the Jewish question was his question. He edited The Daily Pennsylvanian. He left Penn before graduating. He moved to Israel, took dual citizenship, and enlisted in the Israel Defense Forces.
The IDF placed him at Ktzi’ot prison in the Negev during the First Intifada. Ktzi’ot held thousands of Palestinian detainees. Goldberg guarded them. The work was bureaucratic, hot, and morally compromising. He met a detainee named Rafiq Hijazi, a math teacher and PLO functionary from a Gaza refugee camp. They argued. They kept arguing for years, by letter, in person, across borders. Hijazi became the central human relationship of Goldberg’s later book Prisoners and the central case study in his evolving thinking about the conflict.
That experience set the terms of his work. He did not arrive at Israel-Palestine as an outside observer who later acquired a moral stake. He arrived already committed and then watched the commitment complicate. The man on the other side of the wire was not an abstraction. The man on his own side was not always righteous. Goldberg’s later writing carries this doubling. He defends Israel. He records its failures. He keeps the friendship with Hijazi as a private rebuke against any temptation to make either side disappear.
He came back to the United States and started over as a reporter. He began at The Washington Post on the police beat, the most pedestrian apprenticeship in American journalism. He moved to The Forward, the venerable English-language Jewish paper, where he served as New York bureau chief from 1992 to 1998. The Forward years gave him a base in American Jewish intellectual life. He learned the names, the feuds, the publications, the older generation of Yiddishist socialists giving way to younger neoconservatives and liberals. He wrote for New York magazine and The New York Times Magazine. By the late 1990s he had a reputation as a young Middle East hand with literary range.
The New Yorker hired him in 2000 as Middle East correspondent. He produced the 2002 piece “In the Party of God,” a deep report on Hezbollah that won the National Magazine Award. The Hezbollah work showed his method. He embeds. He talks to fighters and clerics. He reads the doctrinal texts. He returns with a long narrative that tries to render the organization as it understands itself while also making moral claims about what it does. The piece treated Hezbollah as a serious ideological actor, not a generic terror group, and that seriousness gave the moral judgments more weight.
The Iraq War period damaged him and left him standing. In 2002 he published a long New Yorker piece arguing that Saddam Hussein had ties to Al-Qaeda and was pursuing weapons of mass destruction. The article moved through Washington at speed. Cheney cited it. Other journalists picked up its claims. The ties Goldberg reported did not survive the postwar inquiry. The WMD program was a fiction. Goldberg later acknowledged that parts of the reporting did not hold up. He did not retract everything. He did not become a vocal critic of the war on its own terms. He absorbed the criticism, narrowed his claims, and kept working.
The Iraq episode is the hinge of his career. A young reporter who had broken less prestigiously might have been ruined. Goldberg was not. He had relationships, awards, the New Yorker imprimatur, and an editor at The Atlantic who wanted him. David Bradley courted him for years, sending gifts, including ponies for his children. Goldberg moved to The Atlantic in 2007 as a national correspondent.
At The Atlantic he wrote the long pieces that defined his second act. The Obama interviews are the most important. He sat with Barack Obama repeatedly across the presidency. The 2016 cover story “The Obama Doctrine” gave the president a venue to articulate his foreign policy in his own categories. Obama on Syria, on Saudi free riders, on the limits of American power, on the temperament of allies. The piece is unusual in modern presidential coverage. It is neither hagiography nor adversarial probe. It is an extended self-presentation, edited and framed by a journalist Obama trusted to take him seriously.
That trust is the asset Goldberg has built. He does not break sources. He understands what they want to communicate. He gives their best version room to breathe. Critics call this access journalism. The label captures something but not everything. The deeper trade is interpretive. Goldberg helps officials make sense of themselves to a public they cannot address directly. In return he gets material no one else gets.
The Trump years sharpened his oppositional posture. In September 2020 he published “Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers.'” The story relied on anonymous sources who described Trump’s private contempt for fallen soldiers. The piece was contested. Trump denied it. Some sources later went on the record, others did not. The story landed because of what it confirmed about a president many of Goldberg’s readers already distrusted, and because of where Goldberg sat. He was not a partisan blogger. He was the editor of The Atlantic. The story had institutional weight.
He followed it with a longer book, On Heroism: McCain, Milley, Mattis, and the Cowardice of Donald Trump. The book argues that the senior military officers of the Trump period held the line against an authoritarian president and that their restraint amounts to civic virtue. The argument is sincere. It also serves the officer corps Goldberg has spent two decades cultivating as sources. Mark Milley in particular emerges as the central figure, the chairman of the joint chiefs who maneuvered to keep the military out of domestic politics during a chaotic transition. Goldberg’s relationship with Milley is as close as a journalist-source relationship gets without crossing the line.
In March 2025 he published a story that was both a scoop and an embarrassment for the Trump administration. National security advisor Mike Waltz inadvertently added Goldberg to a Signal group chat where senior officials, including the secretary of defense, the vice president, and the director of national intelligence, discussed imminent strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Goldberg watched the discussion unfold in real time. He left the group, verified the strikes occurred as described, and published. The story exposed a lapse in operational security at the highest level. It also showed how thin the membrane between elite journalism and the national security state has become. The accident was possible only because Goldberg’s number sat in the contacts of an official who thought he was adding someone else with a similar name.
He took over The Atlantic as editor in chief in 2016. The magazine under his direction has become the dominant American venue for long-form essayistic journalism aimed at the educated professional class. The Pulitzer Prizes started arriving. The National Magazine Awards for General Excellence came in 2022, 2023, and 2024. The subscription numbers grew. The voices he elevated define what counts as serious commentary in centrist American letters. Anne Applebaum on authoritarianism. George Packer on the unmaking of America. Ta-Nehisi Coates on race, until the falling out over Coates’s 2024 book on Israel-Palestine. Caitlin Flanagan on the manners of the professional class. Adam Serwer on the politics of cruelty. The roster carries a recognizable politics. It is liberal, internationalist, suspicious of populism, attentive to institutional decay, and committed to the proposition that long magazine pieces still shape the political conversation.
Goldberg’s editorial taste runs conservative in a literary sense. He likes the long narrative essay. He likes reporting that ends with a moral. He likes prose that takes itself seriously. He does not run the magazine as a debate club. The Atlantic under his direction has a house view, even when it publishes a range of writers. The view is that liberal democracy is fragile, that elites have specific responsibilities to defend it, and that the work of explanation and persuasion is part of that defense. Critics call this a class project. The description is not wrong. Goldberg might say the project is also correct.
His thinking on Israel has shifted across the decades, though the underlying commitment has not. He became a liberal Zionist in his youth and remains one. The content of liberal Zionism has changed around him. In the early 2000s he was a hawk on Iran, suspicious of Palestinian leadership, defensive of the Israeli mainstream. As Israeli politics shifted right, as the Likud governments of Netanyahu locked in settlement expansion and weakened the prospects for a Palestinian state, Goldberg’s tone changed. The 2014 Obama interview, where the president warned that Israel risked international isolation, was Goldberg helping to deliver a message from the American liberal establishment to its Israeli counterparts. The message was that the old arrangement was fraying. He renounced his Israeli citizenship in 2013. The gesture was symbolic. He kept the moral stake but withdrew the legal one.
The Gaza war that began in October 2023 has tested his position more than any prior episode. He has condemned Hamas in absolute terms. He has criticized the Netanyahu government with growing sharpness. He has published writers including Peter Beinart and Franklin Foer who occupy different points on the liberal Zionist spectrum. He has not gone where some of his former readers have gone, into open anti-Zionism. He has not gone where the right wants him to go, into uncritical defense of the Israeli campaign. He occupies a position that critics on both sides find inadequate. The position might also be the position of a substantial portion of American Jews of his generation.
His prose has identifiable habits. He writes in a confident first person when the story calls for it. He uses the conventions of the New Yorker school: the scene-setting opening, the embedded character study, the gradual unfolding of a moral question. He is not a stylist of the highest order. His sentences do not turn. His paragraphs do not surprise. The work earns its weight through reporting and access, not through prose. He knows this. He hires writers who can do what he cannot.
His sources of intellectual authority are mostly American Jewish, mostly liberal, mostly attached to the older institutions of American letters and policy. Leon Wieseltier shaped him at New Republic distance. Martin Peretz hovered in the background of liberal Zionist debate. Bernard Lewis on the Middle East. Walter Russell Mead on grand strategy in a more conservative key. He has read the European Jewish tradition: Arendt, Berlin, Trilling at one remove. He is not a theorist. He is a working journalist whose ideas come from immersion rather than reading. The reading supplements the immersion.
He has now added Washington Week with The Atlantic to his portfolio. Since August 2023 he has moderated the PBS roundtable that has been the central television forum for Beltway journalism since Paul Duke launched it in 1967. The merger of the program with The Atlantic brand consummates his curatorial position. He picks the panel. He sets the questions. He decides which stories the educated public will hear treated as serious. The print magazine, the television program, and his own continuing reporting form a single platform. No other journalist of his generation occupies an equivalent perch.
His personal life runs steady. He has been married since 1993 to Pamela Ress Reeves. They have three children. They live in Washington, D.C. He is observant in the cultural Jewish sense rather than the religious. He talks about God rarely in his published writing. The seriousness of his Jewish identity is ethical and historical. The Holocaust shapes him. Israel shapes him. The American Jewish community of his generation, with its compromises and its successes, shapes him.
What does he believe? He believes that American power, used with restraint and self-knowledge, can do good in the world. He believes that liberal democracy is more fragile than it looks. He believes that journalism at its best is civic responsibility. He believes that Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state and that the right does not absolve Israel of obligations to Palestinians or to itself. He believes that public life requires courage and that most people in public life do not have it. He believes that the institutions of mid-century American liberalism, including the magazines he has edited and written for, are worth preserving.
Critics dispute these beliefs from different directions. The right reads him as the smiling face of an establishment liberalism that lectures the country while losing it. Parts of the left read him as a hawk in remission, the Iraq War reporter who failed upward, the editor who polices the boundaries of acceptable criticism of Israel. The Palestinian intellectual tradition has never trusted him, though some of its writers respect his seriousness. The Israeli right despises him. The Israeli left finds him useful. The American Jewish establishment treats him as one of its own.
He is now sixty. He has been editing The Atlantic for almost a decade. He has more authority than any editor of the magazine since the era of Edward Weeks in the mid-twentieth century. His next decade will determine whether the platform he has built outlasts the political conditions that produced it. The educated professional class that subscribes to his magazine, watches his television program, and reads his essays is itself under pressure. The conditions that allowed a young man from Malverne to guard prisoners in the Negev, write for The New Yorker, and edit The Atlantic are not permanent. Goldberg has spent a career interpreting other people’s institutions. He now runs one.

‘A Big Misunderstanding’

David Pinsof argues that intellectuals flatter themselves with one perfect story. Everything wrong in the world comes from misunderstanding. Polarization is misunderstanding. Bigotry is misunderstanding. Misinformation is misunderstanding. War is misunderstanding. The story is perfect because it places the people whose job is understanding at the center of every solution. The intellectual saves the world by doing what he was already doing.
Jeffrey Goldberg has built a career as the case study Pinsof did not name. The Atlantic under Goldberg runs the misunderstanding myth at industrial scale. His house view comes down to one proposition: the public has been misled, and a better-informed public would behave better. Trumpism is misinformation. Vaccine resistance is misinformation. Skepticism of foreign policy elites is misinformation. The rise of the Israeli right is a failure of moral imagination. The fragility of liberal democracy is a problem of civic education. The solution in every case is more long-form journalism by people like Goldberg.
Pinsof’s lens reads this differently. The voters Goldberg’s writers diagnose as misinformed understand their incentives well. They support the politicians who advance their coalition’s interests against the coalition Goldberg represents. They distrust the institutions Goldberg’s class controls because those institutions have, from their perspective, sold them out repeatedly across forty years. They know what they are doing. Calling them confused is a coalition move, not a diagnosis.
Take Goldberg’s signature treatment of polarization. The Atlantic produces essays grieving the loss of a shared American story, the breakdown of trust, the retreat into tribal media. The framing assumes that polarization is pathological, a wound to be healed. Pinsof’s response: partisans hate each other because they compete for control of the coercive apparatus of the state, and the stakes are prison, taxes, schools, borders, free speech, military force. In a high-stakes contest, demonization is a weapon, not a brain-fart. Goldberg’s coalition demonizes the other side every week. It then publishes pieces lamenting that the other side demonizes them. The asymmetry stays invisible from inside the magazine because the magazine’s demonization wears the costume of moral seriousness.
Take “disinformation,” the term that has organized so much of Goldberg’s editorial output. Pinsof points out that the broad definition swallows nearly all political communication, including the framing produced by The Atlantic. The narrow definition catches little that is new or particularly threatening. Either way the term does political work. It marks some speech as a public health hazard requiring intervention while exempting the speech of the people doing the marking. Goldberg’s magazine has run pieces calling for platform moderation, for media literacy programs, for elite gatekeeping over what counts as legitimate information. The proposed remedies all enhance the authority of the class Goldberg leads. Pinsof’s reading: the disinformation panic is not an error in Goldberg’s reasoning. It is a successful jurisdictional claim.
Take the foreign policy failures. Goldberg supported aspects of the Iraq War. His pre-war reporting on Saddam Hussein’s supposed ties to Al-Qaeda contributed to the climate that made invasion seem reasonable to educated readers. The reporting did not survive. Goldberg absorbed the criticism, narrowed his claims, and kept working. The professional consequences were minimal. Pinsof’s framework predicts this. The failure was shared across the coalition. Punishing Goldberg would have implicated everyone. The ecosystem metabolizes errors that align with shared priors and expels errors that violate them. Goldberg made a coalition-aligned mistake. He paid coalition-aligned costs, which is to say almost none.
The same logic explains the rebound. Goldberg returned to interpret later wars and later presidencies as if his earlier interpretive failures had been minor stumbles in a long career of careful judgment. The “Obama Doctrine” piece in 2016 is the high expression of this. Goldberg sat with Obama and helped him narrate his foreign policy to the educated American public. The piece reads as understanding produced. Pinsof might call it alliance maintenance. Obama got his worldview transmitted in flattering form. Goldberg got the prestige of access. The reader got a story that confirmed the moral seriousness of the people in charge. No one in the chain had an incentive to disrupt the others.
The 2020 “losers and suckers” story and the 2025 Signal chat incident showcase the same machinery. In the first case, sources inside the national security establishment chose Goldberg as the vehicle for damaging Trump. In the second case, a Trump official added Goldberg to the chat because Goldberg’s number sat in the elite contact list. Both episodes treat Goldberg as the trusted recipient. Pinsof’s lens makes sense of why. Goldberg has built a long reputation as the journalist who reliably translates elite communications in ways the elite recognize as fair. He does not betray his sources. He does not break the frame. He produces interpretations that flatter the coalition while seeming to challenge it. The reward for that pattern is more access. The access produces more interpretation. The interpretation produces more access.
Take Goldberg’s Israel work. He presents himself as a liberal Zionist whose criticisms of Israeli right-wing governments come from love and concern. His position has shifted as Israeli politics moved right. Pinsof’s reading: the position has shifted because Goldberg’s coalition has shifted. American liberal Jews face a coalition crisis when Israeli policy makes the alliance with American progressivism uncomfortable. Goldberg’s job is to keep that alliance viable by performing distance from Israeli excesses while preserving the underlying commitment to Israel as a Jewish state. The renunciation of Israeli citizenship in 2013 is the perfect symbolic gesture. It signals a moral refusal that costs almost nothing. The intricate balancing act is not a man wrestling with hard truths in public. It is a man managing a coalition in difficulty.
Take the bridging-divides project. Goldberg hosts conferences on disinformation and the erosion of democracy. The Atlantic publishes pieces on civil discourse, on listening across differences, on the vanishing center. The events feature Republicans and Democrats who agree on what counts as serious thought, which is the same as agreeing on who counts as a serious thinker. The dissident Republicans on these stages are dissidents because they share Goldberg’s framework. The dissident Democrats are dissidents in the same direction. The supposed bridging is a ritual where the same coalition celebrates its own breadth. Pinsof’s framework predicts this. Bridging-divides events do not bridge divides. They are status displays where elites perform the virtue of openness while excluding the people whose openness might cost them something.
Take the military-honor work. Goldberg’s book on McCain, Milley, and Mattis frames the senior officer corps as the guardrail against authoritarian excess. The argument is sincere. It also delivers extraordinary value to the military leadership Goldberg has cultivated as sources. The officers come out as principled men. Goldberg comes out as their chronicler. The educated American public comes out reassured that the institutions of power can be trusted in the right hands. Pinsof’s reading: this is a triple win for the coalition. The military protects its prestige against right-wing populist attacks. Goldberg protects his access. The reader protects his sense that the world has serious adults somewhere doing serious work. None of this requires any of the parties to be lying. Pinsof says sincerity is part of how the system runs. The intellectuals believe their own copy.
The harshest application of Pinsof concerns Goldberg’s stated mission against his actual function. Goldberg says his work serves understanding, civic life, the soul of democracy, the integrity of public discourse. Judge him by deeds. The Atlantic under his leadership has become a clearinghouse for elite anxiety addressed to elites. Its readers are richer than the average American by a wide margin, more credentialed, more concentrated in coastal metro areas, more aligned with the Democratic Party. Its writers come from a thin slice of the American intellectual class. Its arguments tend to flatter that slice. Its diagnoses of the country’s problems put the people who buy the magazine in the role of misunderstood victims and the people who do not in the role of misinformed villains. Pinsof might say this is the function the magazine performs because the function pays. The mission statement is decoration.
The Pinsof reading does not require Goldberg to be a fraud. It requires him to be a normal human animal who has found a niche and worked it well. He believes the things he says. He believes them harder because believing them serves him. He cannot easily think his way out of the framework because the framework is what produces his salary, his prestige, his marriage circle, his invitations, his television show. His self-deception is functional. His sincerity is real. Both run together because evolution gave us minds that align belief with interest without our noticing.
What does Goldberg get wrong, in Pinsof’s framework? He gets wrong the proposition that the world’s troubles trace to a shortage of good information. The American public has access to more information than any public in history. The decline of trust in institutions has tracked the rise of access to information about how those institutions actually behave. The polarization Goldberg laments has grown alongside the proliferation of magazines, books, podcasts, and television programs aimed at explanation. Pinsof’s diagnosis: the misunderstanding myth has been falsified by the experiment. More understanding has not produced less conflict. More understanding has produced sharper conflict because the public now sees more clearly what the various coalitions want and what they will do to get it. Goldberg responds to this by demanding more understanding, which is to say more Goldberg. The hawk’s eye is in fine working order. It just sees what it has incentive to see.
Liberal readers of The Atlantic will find this conclusion uncomfortable. Goldberg succeeds at his stated mission only insofar as the stated mission was always cover for the actual one. The country does not have a misunderstanding problem. The educated professional class and the rest of the country want different things and compete for the same instruments of state power. Goldberg dresses the competition in the language of understanding so that one side can fight without admitting it fights. Pinsof closes his essay with the proposition that the only misunderstanding is the belief there has been a misunderstanding. Goldberg’s career sets that proposition in marble.

Alliance Theory

Jeffrey Goldberg’s career sits at the junction of two coalitions whose members are increasingly rivals with each other, and his editorial output is the long record of his attempt to keep them aligned.
Coalition one is the American liberal establishment. Educated professionals, mainstream journalists, centrist Democrats, the national security state in its post-Trump configuration, university administrators, foundation officers, the institutional elite of the Acela corridor. Coalition two is American liberal Zionism. The committed Jewish defense network, AIPAC’s reformist wing, Israeli centrists, the diaspora institutions that fund and defend Israel through the framework of liberal democratic legitimacy.
These coalitions overlap heavily and have done so for two generations. American Jews have been disproportionate participants in the liberal establishment, and the liberal establishment has been the main American sponsor of Israel through Cold War alignment, AIPAC’s bipartisan operation, and the human rights vocabulary that frames Israel as a fellow democracy. The overlap has eroded across the past decade. Younger progressives within Goldberg’s primary coalition have moved against Israel through BDS, anti-colonial frameworks, and a generational redefinition of Jews as White Americans rather than as a vulnerable minority. October 7 accelerated the realignment. Goldberg now sits at the friction point.
The propagandistic biases run cleanly when applied to Israel and the Jewish coalition.
Victim biases. The 2015 cover story “Is It Time for the Jews to Leave Europe?” framed European antisemitism as existential. The piece named Muslim immigration as a primary driver, a framing the broader liberal coalition resists. Goldberg published it because the Jewish coalition required the framing. The Atlantic’s post-October 7 coverage has emphasized Hamas’s atrocities, Iranian-backed terror, hostage suffering, and the surge of campus antisemitism with the moral weight Alliance Theory predicts for in-group victimhood. Mitigating frames go unused. Root-cause arguments that might implicate the broader liberal coalition do not appear. The victim narrative stays clean.
Perpetrator biases. Goldberg has called Netanyahu the worst prime minister in Israel’s history. He has criticized settlement expansion, judicial reform, and the conduct of the Gaza campaign. None of this constitutes attacking the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state. The criticism stays inside the coalition’s frame. Israel might be governed badly. Israel deserves to exist, deserves to defend itself, and deserves moral standing inside the family of democracies. Critics outside the coalition who attack the legitimacy receive a different treatment. They are antisemites, anti-Zionists, useful idiots for Iran and Hamas. The line between acceptable criticism and unacceptable attack runs along the coalition boundary.
Attributional biases. Israeli failures are attributed to specific bad actors. Bibi. The settler movement. The right-wing coalition. Israeli successes are attributed to deeper civilizational achievements. The startup economy. The military’s capabilities. The democratic institutions. American Jewish achievement is internal. American Jewish victimization is external, the work of antisemites operating without provocation. Hamas’s atrocities are internal to Hamas. Israeli military errors are external pressures, fog of war, the impossible asymmetric situation.
The same biases run when applied to the primary coalition.
Trump and the MAGA movement are treated with the moral intensity Alliance Theory predicts for an existential rival. The 2020 “losers and suckers” story did not require unanimous source agreement to land. It required only that it confirm what the coalition already knew. Trump’s record on Israel was disregarded as a transitivity problem. The standard rule says the friend of my ally is my friend. Trump moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, brokered the Abraham Accords, and presided over the most pro-Israel American administration in decades. None of that updated his position in Goldberg’s framework. The coalition logic ranks the threat to the liberal establishment higher than the gain for Israel. Transitivity defers to the primary alliance.
Mark Milley travels in the opposite direction. Milley is a four-star general, a member of an institution Goldberg’s coalition spent the 1960s and 1970s holding in suspicion. He becomes a hero in Goldberg’s reporting because he is positioned against Trump. The military’s coalition standing has reversed. It now belongs to the liberal alliance because its leadership has aligned against the coalition’s primary rival. Goldberg’s book on McCain, Milley, and Mattis is the literary expression of that realignment. The intelligence agencies travel the same path. The CIA and FBI were villains of the New Left in Goldberg’s youth. They became allies once they aligned against Trump. The biases tracked the alliance shift, not any change in what the agencies do.
Mainstream Democrats receive perpetrator-bias treatment. Joe Biden’s Gaza ceasefire failures, the Afghanistan withdrawal, the abandonment of allies in Kabul, the inflation crisis, the Hunter Biden corruption questions all receive the contextualized treatment Alliance Theory predicts for in-group failures. Tradeoffs, constraints, the impossibility of the situation, the better of two bad options. Republican failures get internalized to character and intent.
The bridging alliance produces strange bedfellows. Goldberg is allied with intelligence officials who broke laws his coalition condemned in the Bush years. He is allied with corporate media executives whose institutions his coalition critiques as oligarchic. He is allied with progressive activists who view Israel as a colonial project. He is allied with Israeli centrists whose own coalition partners include settler-aligned politicians. The contradictions do not register as contradictions because the alliance does its work. The narrative produced by Goldberg’s editorial position smooths the contradictions through selective emphasis and asymmetric framing.
Iraq is the test case for how alliance updating works. In 2002 Goldberg was inside a hawkish coalition that produced the case for invasion. His New Yorker piece on Saddam-Al Qaeda links was central to that coalition’s argument. The coalition collapsed when the war went badly. Goldberg did not collapse with it. He repositioned within the liberal internationalist successor coalition, which emphasized restraint without abandoning American leadership. The biases ran in the new direction. Bush’s failures were internal to Bush, the neoconservatives, the bad intelligence community of that period. Obama’s failures were external to Obama, products of the impossible situation he inherited. The same Goldberg, the same prose register, the same moral seriousness. The coalition shifted, the biases shifted, the writing tracked the shift.
Pinsof and his coauthors insist that alliance contents are historically contingent. Small accidents of biography lock people into coalitions that determine what their belief systems will look like. Goldberg’s case is exemplary. He went to Israel at thirteen. He served in the IDF during the First Intifada. He guarded Palestinian prisoners and built a friendship with one of them. He came of professional age inside American Jewish journalism in the 1990s, then graduated to The New Yorker, then to The Atlantic. None of that biography forced any particular set of policy commitments. It locked him into a coalition through similarity, interdependence, and transitivity, and the policy commitments followed. Had he grown up in Lebanon and served in Hezbollah’s youth wing, he might be writing the mirror image of his current work with the same moral conviction.
Alliance Theory predicts that elites are more skilled at coalition narrative production, not more principled in their commitments. Goldberg fits the prediction. He runs the bridging alliance with more sophistication than the average partisan. He acknowledges complications the partisan ignores. He admits errors the partisan denies. He criticizes his own side at calibrated intervals. The acknowledgments, admissions, and criticisms all fall safely within the coalition boundary. He does not adopt the framings that would cost him his position. He does not say that American Jews are a privileged White ethnic group whose attachment to Israel functions as colonial soft power. He does not say that Hamas’s grievances reflect material conditions Israel created. He does not say that the liberal establishment has earned the populist contempt it now receives. He stays inside the lines.
What Alliance Theory does not predict, and Goldberg does not provide, is principled coherence. His positions read as a coherent worldview only from inside the bridging alliance. Strong on Trump’s authoritarianism, soft on the Bush administration’s security state. Strong on antisemitism from the right, slower to publish on antisemitism from the left until the coalition could no longer ignore it. Strong on Israel’s right to defend itself, soft on Israel’s right to govern Palestinians. Strong on civic norms when populists violate them, quieter when intelligence officials and military leaders bend them in coalition-aligned directions. The pattern is the signature of bridging-alliance maintenance, the predictable output of human alliance psychology operating at the commanding heights of American media.

The Great Delusion

In his 2018 book, The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, John J. Mearsheimer wrote:

My view is that we are profoundly social beings from the start to the finish of our lives and that individualism is of secondary importance… Liberalism downplays the social nature of human beings to the point of almost ignoring it, instead treating people largely as atomistic actors… Political liberalism… is an ideology that is individualistic at its core and assigns great importance to the concept of inalienable rights. This concern for rights is the basis of its universalism—everyone on the planet has the same inherent set of rights—and this is what motivates liberal states to pursue ambitious foreign policies. The public and scholarly discourse about liberalism since World War II has placed enormous emphasis on what are commonly called human rights. This is true all around the world, not just in the West. “Human rights,” Samuel Moyn notes, “have come to define the most elevated aspirations of both social movements and political entities—state and interstate. They evoke hope and provoke action.”
[Humans] do not operate as lone wolves but are born into social groups or societies that shape their identities well before they can assert their individualism. Moreover, individuals usually develop strong attachments to their group and are sometimes willing to make great sacrifices for their fellow members. Humans are often said to be tribal at their core. The main reason for our social nature is that the best way for a person to survive is to be embedded in a society and to cooperate with fellow members rather than act alone… Despite its elevated ranking, reason is the least important of the three ways we determine our preferences. It certainly is less important than socialization. The main reason socialization matters so much is that humans have a long childhood in which they are protected and nurtured by their families and the surrounding society, and meanwhile exposed to intense socialization. At the same time, they are only beginning to develop their critical faculties, so they are not equipped to think for themselves. By the time an individual reaches the point where his reasoning skills are well developed, his family and society have already imposed an enormous value infusion on him. Moreover, that individual is born with innate sentiments that also strongly influence how he thinks about the world around him. All of this means that people have limited choice in formulating a moral code, because so much of their thinking about right and wrong comes from inborn attitudes and socialization.

Mearsheimer’s argument in The Great Delusion cuts against The Atlantic’s editorial program. He says liberalism rests on a false anthropology. Humans are not atomistic actors who reason their way to universal principles. They are tribal animals socialized into particular value systems before reason begins to operate. The universalism that follows from the liberal premise is not a discovery about human nature but a parochial doctrine of a specific Western intellectual class, dressed in the language of universal truth.
Goldberg is a clean specimen of the doctrine Mearsheimer attacks. He treats liberal democracy, human rights, and the rules-based international order as universal aspirations any reasonable person might endorse if properly informed. His writing on Trump, Putin, populism, antisemitism, and Israeli politics rests on the assumption that the right values are available to anyone willing to think clearly. The only question is why so many people fail to think clearly.
Mearsheimer says the question is wrong. People reach the conclusions their socialization produces. Goldberg’s universalism is a product of socialization. The New York Jewish liberal milieu, the elite media training of The New Yorker and The Atlantic, the Acela corridor’s late-imperial cosmopolitanism, the post-Holocaust American Jewish synthesis of liberal universalism with particularist Jewish defense. Had Goldberg grown up inside a different value infusion, he might hold different views with the same certainty.
The implication that bites first is that his universalism is tribal in disguise. The Atlantic’s editorial program presents itself as the voice of humane reason against atavistic forces. Mearsheimer reads the same program as the value system of a specific class with tribal interests in maintaining its position. The “rules-based order” benefits the educated professionals who staff its institutions. The “human rights” framework gives American power a moral vocabulary. The “liberal democracy” defense protects the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition. None of these are universal in the sense Goldberg implies. They are particular, contingent, and rooted in the survival interests of a specific tribe.
The contradiction inside Goldberg’s own commitments tightens the point. His strongest personal attachments are to Jewish peoplehood, Israeli security, and the post-Holocaust covenant of mutual defense among Jews. These are explicit tribal commitments, more particularist than anything in his political opponents’ platforms. Mearsheimer’s framework forces a question Goldberg avoids. If tribal commitment is legitimate for Jews, on what grounds is it illegitimate for Americans, Palestinians, Iranians, Hungarians, Russians, or any other people? Goldberg writes as if Jewish tribalism is moral seriousness and other tribalism is pathology. The asymmetry holds inside his coalition. It does not survive Mearsheimer’s anthropology.
Iraq becomes legible through the same lens. Mearsheimer was the leading academic critic of the war and of the broader liberal interventionist project. His argument was that you cannot impose liberal democracy on people whose socialization has produced incompatible values. The values of Iraq’s Sunni and Shia communities were not waiting beneath a thin layer of Saddam’s tyranny to emerge as Jeffersonian republicanism. They were the durable products of centuries of socialization, and they might reassert themselves as soon as the imposed structure came down. They did. Goldberg’s reporting on Saddam-Al Qaeda links contributed to the intellectual case for invasion. Mearsheimer’s anthropology predicted the war would fail. Goldberg’s anthropology was blind to the variables that drove the outcome.
Trump becomes legible too. Goldberg treats Trump’s rise as a misinformation problem, an authoritarian temptation, a failure of civic education, a virus to be vaccinated against. Mearsheimer’s framework reads Trump’s rise as the predictable response of Americans whose socialization gave them tribal attachments to nation, place, and inherited culture, and who watched the liberal universalist project erode each of those attachments across forty years. The Trump voter functions normally. He follows the human design Mearsheimer describes. Goldberg cannot see this because his framework rules out the possibility of legitimate national sentiment. Anything that looks like national sentiment must be coded as racism, ignorance, or manipulation.
The bridging-divides project collapses under Mearsheimer’s premise. The Atlantic hosts conferences and publishes essays aimed at bridging American political divides through better discourse. Mearsheimer’s argument predicts the project will fail. The divides do not come from misunderstanding. They come from different socializations producing different values. The progressive Manhattan editor and the small-town Trump voter have not received the same value infusion. They do not argue inside a shared moral frame. The bridging effort presupposes the anthropology Mearsheimer rejects.
Behind all of this is Mearsheimer’s claim about reason. He says reason is the least important of the three forces shaping human preferences. Innate sentiments come first. Socialization comes second. Reason comes third, and operates on material the first two have already provided. Goldberg’s editorial program treats reason as the engine of moral progress. Better arguments produce better citizens. Better journalism produces better politics. Better discourse produces better outcomes. Mearsheimer’s anthropology says this is backwards. The arguments do not change the socialization. They emerge from it.
Goldberg presents himself as a careful thinker who follows arguments wherever they lead. Mearsheimer says no such thinker exists. The arguments lead where the socialization has prepared them to lead. What Goldberg calls intellectual integrity is the consistency between his conclusions and his tribe’s interests. The conclusions track because the reasoning had no place else to go. He could not write himself out of his class even if he tried, and he has no incentive to try.
The defense of liberal democracy becomes the defense of a specific value system held by a specific tribe in specific places at a specific time. Not universal. Not the natural endpoint of human moral development. One set of arrangements that has worked for one set of people in particular conditions. Goldberg writes as if the defense of these arrangements is the defense of humanity. Mearsheimer says it is the defense of a corner of humanity, important to its members, indifferent or hostile to most of the species. The grandeur of the project drains away.
The Israel question is the test case for whether Goldberg can absorb the argument. Goldberg defends Jewish particularism with full Mearsheimerian conviction. Tribal attachment. Historical memory. Ancestral loyalty. Defense of the in-group against existential threats. He treats American particularism, European particularism, and Russian particularism as if the same impulses, operating in non-Jewish populations, were diseases. The contradiction is invisible from inside the coalition because the coalition does not require him to resolve it. From inside Mearsheimer’s framework the contradiction is the central feature of his work.
What Goldberg cannot say, and Mearsheimer can, is that The Atlantic is the in-house journal of the educated American liberal class, doing the work all such publications do for all such classes throughout history. Defending the class’s interests. Narrating its self-image. Derogating its rivals. Recruiting talent. Signaling boundaries. Stabilizing morale. Goldberg is its editor in the sense that he is its tribal storyteller. His individual gifts are real, but they operate inside a function the magazine performs whether he edits it or another competent person does.
The implication that bites hardest is this. Goldberg’s career rests on the proposition that liberal universalism is true. If Mearsheimer is right, the proposition is false. The career then rests on a category error, mistaking the values of a particular tribe in a particular moment for the values of humanity. Better journalism cannot fix the error. The error sits in the premise the journalism rests on. Goldberg cannot edit his way out of it any more than the medieval cleric could edit his way out of Christendom’s claim to universal civilization. He is the chronicler of a parochial faith that experiences itself as the truth about everyone.
That is the cost of serious membership in any value tribe. You see your own commitments as universal because socialization works that way. Mearsheimer’s claim is that escape is impossible. The honest move for a serious thinker is to name the tribe that holds him.

Charisma and Social Paradoxes

The first paradox Goldberg executes is the embedded-but-independent paradox. The paradox runs as follows. Goldberg has explicit commitments to Zionism and to the Atlantic’s centrist-establishment positioning. He has held these commitments openly. He served in the IDF as a young man. He has written extensively about his Jewish identity and his Zionist commitments. He does not pretend to be a neutral observer of the Israel-Palestine conflict. The paradox is that the commitments coexist with his role as a journalist whose authority depends on being read as having access that produces independent judgment. The audience needs Goldberg to be embedded enough to produce the access. The audience also needs him to be independent enough to produce judgment that exceeds the embedment. Both halves operate at once. The commitments are visible. The independence is also visible. The paradox holds because the audience that reads Goldberg participates in maintaining both halves at once.
Pinsof’s framework treats this kind of paradox as the social paradox in his exact technical sense. The reader knows about the commitments. The reader also reads the work as having authority that exceeds the commitments. The two readings are kept simultaneously through a particular kind of attention that does not collapse them into each other. The paradox stays stable as long as the reader does not insist on choosing between the two readings. Most Atlantic readers do not insist. They benefit from the paradox. The paradox lets them read sophisticated reporting on Israel and the Middle East from a writer whose commitments they share or at least respect. The shared commitment is part of what makes the reading possible. The reading would be different if the commitments were not shared. The paradox lets the audience experience the reading as independent journalism while drawing the comfort that comes from the writer’s coalition alignment.
The cue-to-signal-to-negative-cue trajectory applies to Goldberg’s career in unusually visible ways. The early work in the late 1990s and early 2000s read as honest cue. The Hezbollah reporting from Lebanon, the Saddam Hussein profiling, the access journalism in the Middle East all read as the work of a reporter who was actually doing the work. The work was real. The cues were honest. By the mid-2000s the cues had become signals. Goldberg’s October 2002 New Yorker piece on the supposed Saddam-Al Qaeda connection, which helped make the case for the Iraq war, was the inflection point. The piece was reported journalism in form. It was also coalition production in function. It supplied the case for war that the Bush administration needed and that a substantial part of the American foreign-policy establishment wanted to be true. The piece’s empirical claims have not held up. The connection it asserted between Saddam and Al Qaeda was not established by the subsequent record. The piece was wrong in ways that mattered.
The wrongness is interesting for the framework because it shows how signal can override cue when the coalition function is strong enough. The reporting standards that should have caught the empirical weakness did not catch it because the coalition that wanted the piece to be true included most of the people who would otherwise have caught the weakness. The piece sailed through the editorial process at the New Yorker. It was widely cited. The pushback came from outside the coalition the piece served. The framework treats this as the standard pattern. Cues become signals when the coalition needs the signals enough to override the cue function. The cue function is what produces accuracy. The signal function is what produces coalition coordination. The two compete. Coalitions select for signals when the coordination matters more than the accuracy.
Goldberg has acknowledged in subsequent years that the Iraq reporting was wrong. The acknowledgment matters for the framework because it shows what happens after a coalition signal collides with empirical reality that contradicts it. The acknowledgment does not dissolve the paradox. It accommodates the paradox to the new evidence. Goldberg continued at the New Yorker, moved to the Atlantic, became editor in chief. The institution that produced the wrong piece absorbed the acknowledgment without dissolving the institutional position that had produced the piece. The framework predicts this. Coalitions absorb errors. The absorption is what coalition stability looks like. The errors do not destroy the coalition. They produce localized adjustments that preserve the larger structure.
The second paradox is the access-as-evidence paradox. Goldberg has unusual access. He has interviewed Obama, Netanyahu, multiple American presidents and Israeli prime ministers, Iranian leaders, Syrian opposition figures, and a wide range of intelligence and military officials. The access is real. The pieces that emerge from the access have authority because the access could not be faked. The paradox is that access of this kind is granted because the grantor expects something in return. The expectation does not have to be explicit. The grantor knows what kind of piece the writer produces. The writer would not get repeat access if the pieces did not serve the grantor’s purposes. The arrangement is symbiotic. The access produces authority for the writer. The writer’s pieces produce framing for the grantor. Both sides benefit. Both sides need the strategic dimensions of the arrangement to stay concealed because acknowledging the arrangement would compromise it.
The Obama interviews on the Iran deal in 2015 and 2016 are the cleanest case for this paradox in Goldberg’s career. Obama gave Goldberg extensive access for The Obama Doctrine, a long piece that helped frame Obama’s foreign policy legacy. The access was generous. The framing was favorable to Obama in important respects. The piece was widely read as sympathetic but rigorous. Pinsof’s framework would say the piece operated as classic social paradox. Goldberg presented as a serious journalist asking serious questions. Obama presented as a serious president giving serious answers. The audience read the piece as serious journalism on serious topics. All three readings were partly true. The fourth reading, that the piece was also coalition production for an administration that needed favorable framing of a controversial policy, was equally true and stayed mostly invisible because none of the three primary participants benefited from making it visible.
The Trump-era national security reporting compounds the access paradox. Goldberg has reported extensively on Trump’s interactions with the military, including the famous “suckers and losers” piece in September 2020 about Trump’s reported comments on American war dead. The piece used anonymous sources. It was contested at the time. Some sources later corroborated parts of it. Other parts remain disputed. The framework would treat this as the standard pattern of access journalism in highly polarized contexts. The piece confirmed what one coalition wanted to be true and was disputed by the other coalition. The disputed status of the piece does not damage Goldberg’s standing within the coalition that wanted it to be true. The disputed status reinforces the position of the coalition that wanted it to be false. The piece produces value for both sides. The producing-value-for-both-sides quality is what gives access journalism its durability in polarized contexts. Whichever side wins the political battle, the journalist who produced the piece is positioned to continue producing similar pieces.
The third paradox is the editor-as-curator-of-truth paradox. Since 2016 Goldberg has been the Atlantic’s editor in chief. The position lets him shape what the magazine publishes, what the magazine attacks, what the magazine ignores. The magazine has become more politically engaged under his editorship. It has published the Trump-suckers-losers piece, the Caitlin Flanagan pieces, the Anne Applebaum pieces on authoritarianism, the Yoni Appelbaum pieces on housing, the Adam Serwer pieces on cruelty as politics. The magazine’s positioning has been broadly anti-Trump and broadly pro-establishment-liberal-internationalist, with occasional contrarian moves to maintain the appearance of editorial independence. The paradox is that an editor who curates a coalition position presents the curation as truth-seeking. The audience reads the magazine’s contents as serious journalism. The magazine’s contents are also instruments of coalition coordination. Both readings are partly true. The paradox lets the audience experience the curation as truth-seeking while the curation does the coalition work the audience also wants it to do.
Pinsof’s framework would highlight the recursive structure here. Goldberg the writer operates inside paradoxes that his audience helps maintain. Goldberg the editor maintains paradoxes that the magazine’s larger audience helps sustain. The two operations interact. The editor’s selection of writers and topics shapes the paradoxes the magazine produces. The writers’ production of paradoxes shapes the magazine’s brand. The brand attracts readers who participate in the paradoxes. The cycle reinforces itself. Each layer requires the layers above and below it to stay stable. The layers stay stable as long as the participants benefit from the arrangement.
The Signal-chat-leak story in March 2025 is the most recent case worth examining through the framework. Goldberg was accidentally added to a Signal group chat where Trump administration national security officials including Hegseth and Waltz discussed plans for strikes on Yemen. Goldberg watched the conversation unfold, eventually disclosed the leak, and produced a piece for the Atlantic that documented the security failure. The piece was a major story. It demonstrated serious lapses in operational security at the highest levels of the new administration. The story was largely accurate. It was also coalition production in function. It served the anti-Trump coalition’s interest in showing the new administration as reckless and incompetent. It served the Atlantic’s interest in maintaining its position as a source of definitive Trump-era reporting. It served Goldberg’s interest in continuing to be the journalist Trump-administration figures cannot avoid taking seriously. All three coalition functions are real. The story is also genuinely a story about a serious security failure. Both readings hold simultaneously. The paradox is what lets both readings hold.
The interesting feature of the Signal story for the framework is the Trump administration’s response. Hegseth and others attacked Goldberg personally rather than addressing the underlying security failure. The attacks attempted to delegitimize the messenger to deflect attention from the message. The framework would treat the attacks as a coalition response to a paradox the Trump coalition could not afford to let stand. The paradox required the messenger to have authority. The attacks tried to dissolve the authority. The attempt mostly failed because Goldberg’s institutional position at the Atlantic and his cumulative track record protected him in ways that direct denials could not overcome. The framework predicts this. Institutional positions protect paradoxes more effectively than individual reputations do. The paradox sustains because the institution sustains it.
The deepest paradox in the Goldberg case is the I-have-seen-the-evil paradox. Goldberg’s career arc has involved repeated proximity to figures and events that have moral charge in his audience’s framework. He served in the IDF prison camp at Ketziot during the First Intifada. The memoir Prisoners documented the experience and his complicated feelings about it. He has profiled Hezbollah leaders, Syrian dictators, Iranian officials, American presidents whose decisions he has questioned. The cumulative effect is a writer whose authority comes from having been close to the things he writes about. The paradox is that the closeness should have changed him in ways that compromise the framework his work operates inside. The framework’s authority requires that he not have been changed in those ways. He has to have seen the evil and remained committed to the framework that identifies it as evil. If the seeing changed the framework, the framework’s authority dissolves. If the seeing did not change the framework, the seeing did not produce the depth of understanding the framework’s authority requires.
Pinsof’s framework treats this as a paradox of compromised purity that runs through most successful access journalism. The reporter has to be close enough to know. The reporter has to be uncontaminated enough to be trusted. The reconciliation is the recoil performance Marantz also executes, but in Goldberg’s case the recoil performance has more weight because the proximity has been more sustained. Prisoners is the most explicit version of the recoil performance. The book documents the proximity and renders the recoil simultaneously. The book is partly a confession of having participated in something he came to question. The book is also a credential that authorizes his subsequent writing on related topics. The credential requires the confession. The confession produces the credential. Both functions operate at once. Neither cancels the other.
The Pinsof social paradoxes paper would emphasize that Goldberg’s audience benefits from this arrangement specifically. The audience wants a writer who has been close enough to the IDF and to its prison apparatus to know how it operates while also being morally compromised enough by the proximity that the writer’s eventual judgments carry weight. A writer who had no proximity could not produce the judgments. A writer with no recoil could not be trusted to produce them. The paradox lets the audience read Goldberg as someone whose proximity and recoil have produced judgments more reliable than those a pure outsider or a pure insider could produce. The paradox is what makes the writer specifically valuable. The arrangement is symbiotic. The audience needs the paradox. The writer’s career depends on it. The paradox stays stable as long as the audience continues to read it the way both sides need it to be read.
The cue-to-signal-to-negative-cue trajectory applies here too with particular force. Prisoners in 2006 read as honest cue. The book was a sustained engagement with personal moral complexity around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The complexity was real. The book did not produce easy resolutions. By the late 2010s the IDF-veteran-with-complicated-feelings positioning had hardened into signal. Goldberg’s pieces on Israel-Palestine since the Gaza war began in October 2023 read as deployments of the credential rather than as continued explorations of the complexity Prisoners documented. The framing has become predictable. The audience knows what a Goldberg Atlantic piece on the Gaza war will conclude before reading it. The conclusion will affirm Israel’s right to defend itself, will register concern about specific tactical excesses, will frame Hamas as the primary moral cause of the conflict, will treat the broader Zionist project as defensible, and will avoid the framings that would alienate the magazine’s primary audience. The framing is defensible on its own terms. It is also coalition production. The fact that it is both is what the paradox requires.
For readers outside the magazine’s coalition, the signal has flipped into negative cue. The same Goldberg piece that reads as nuanced engagement to the Atlantic’s primary audience reads as predictable Zionist apologetics dressed in liberal-establishment prose to readers in left-wing or pro-Palestinian coalitions. The negative cue reading explains things the cue reading cannot easily explain. It explains why Goldberg’s complexity does not extend to questioning the legitimacy of the Zionist project. It explains why the recoil performance does not include recoil from the Israeli state’s existence as such. It explains why his Israel-Palestine coverage clusters predictably on coalition lines despite the appearance of nuanced engagement. The negative-cue reading is parsimonious. The cue reading requires more elaborate interpretive work to sustain.
The Atlantic’s institutional structure gives Goldberg paradox-stability that Cofnas does not have. The magazine’s editorial process disciplines individual pieces. The magazine’s brand absorbs and reframes the pieces into a larger reputation. The magazine’s audience has been trained across decades to read the magazine’s conventions as substance. The paradoxes Goldberg operates inside are protected by the institutional infrastructure in ways the dissident-Substack writer cannot match. The framework predicts that this institutional protection allows Goldberg’s paradoxes to remain mostly invisible to him in ways that more institutionally exposed writers cannot afford. The institutional protection is also what removes the pressure that might otherwise produce visibility. Goldberg can continue operating the paradoxes for as long as the magazine continues to thrive and as long as his audience continues to subscribe.
A particular feature of Goldberg’s case worth flagging is the political-establishment-versus-counter-establishment dimension. Cofnas operates from outside the establishment and his paradoxes have to attract a counter-establishment audience that the establishment institutions have not absorbed. Marantz operates inside an establishment institution and his paradoxes serve audiences that the institution has cultivated. Goldberg operates at the apex of one specific establishment formation, the centrist-Atlanticist-Zionist-liberal-internationalist establishment that has been one of the dominant coalitions in American journalism since the 1990s. His paradoxes serve this coalition’s needs. The coalition has resources, institutions, audiences, and political access that few competing coalitions can match. Goldberg’s paradoxes are unusually durable because the coalition that benefits from them is unusually well resourced.
The framework’s prediction for Goldberg is that the paradoxes continue as long as the coalition continues. The Atlantic’s positioning may shift if the political environment shifts dramatically enough. Goldberg may eventually retire. The magazine may eventually find new editors who maintain the position differently. The paradox structure will not dissolve unless the coalition that needs it dissolves. The coalition is unlikely to dissolve in the foreseeable future because it is too well institutionalized to dissolve quickly. Cofnas’s paradoxes are brittler because the coalition that supports them is smaller and less well institutionalized. Marantz’s paradoxes are more durable than Cofnas’s but less durable than Goldberg’s because the New Yorker is institutionally important but not at the center of the coalition Marantz serves in the way the Atlantic is at the center of the coalition Goldberg serves.
The deepest application of the social paradoxes framework to Goldberg involves the question of moral seriousness. Goldberg presents as a morally serious figure. The presentation is real in the sense that he engages moral questions, has revised his positions on at least some issues, has produced work that has moral weight. The presentation is also a coalition asset. The morally-serious Zionist-liberal-internationalist editor is a particular kind of figure that the coalition needs. The figure has to embody moral seriousness without arriving at conclusions that would compromise the coalition’s commitments. The combination is what makes the position powerful. The paradox is that genuine moral seriousness, applied without limit, would compromise the coalition. Genuine moral seriousness, applied with the limits the coalition requires, is exactly what the position needs.
Pinsof’s framework would not say Goldberg is insincere. The framework would say his sincerity operates inside the limits the coalition position allows. The limits are not visible from inside because seeing them would require looking past the coalition’s commitments, which is what the position prevents. Goldberg can write seriously about Israeli excesses in Gaza while not writing seriously about whether the project of which those excesses are an expression is legitimate. The not-writing about the latter is what the coalition position requires. The writing about the former is what the coalition position permits. The combination operates as moral seriousness within coalition limits. The combination is sincere. It is also strategically effective.

Watergate as Democratic Ritual & Cultural Trauma

Goldberg performs the construction work for two distinct trauma narratives, and the strain of carrying both at once is the central problem of his late career.
The first is the liberal-establishment trauma about Trump. The pain is the violation of democratic norms by a president who treats public office as personal property. The victim is the republic itself, sometimes the Constitution, sometimes the civilian-military compact, sometimes the war dead. The connection to a wider audience runs through universalizing language about decency, sacrifice, and the rule of law, which lets readers across party lines see themselves as co-sufferers. The responsibility falls on Trump and on the officeholders who normalize him. Goldberg’s Trump-era output is a sustained construction of this trauma. The 2020 Atlantic story “Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers'” is the textbook case. It takes private words spoken by a politician and elevates them to a profanation of national sacred objects. The story is not primarily about what Trump said. It is about the symbolic violation of the fallen soldier, the most charged sacred figure in American civil religion. Goldberg’s later book On Heroism: McCain, Milley, Mattis, and the Cowardice of Donald Trump extends the construction. The military officer corps becomes the priestly class that holds the line against profanation. The argument is sincere. It also serves the officer corps Goldberg has spent two decades cultivating as sources.
The second trauma narrative is liberal Zionism’s. The pain is the post-October 7 collapse of liberal Western sympathy for Israel and the parallel rise of Jewish vulnerability across elite institutions. The victim is Israel and the Jewish people, but more precisely the liberal Zionist project that holds democracy and Jewish nationhood together. The connection to a wider audience runs through anyone who values both Jewish safety and liberal democratic norms. The responsibility falls on Hamas, on Iran, on the campus left that minimizes Jewish suffering, and on the post-liberal right that hijacks Jewish defense for its own purposes. Goldberg’s earlier book Prisoners: A Muslim and a Jew Across the Middle East Divide by Jeffrey Goldberg constructed the personal version of this trauma decades ago, using his own service as a Jewish guard at Ketziot prison and his friendship with a Palestinian prisoner to dramatize the possibility of mutual recognition that history keeps undoing.
The two trauma narratives fit together cleanly when liberal Democrats are pro-Israel and Republicans are mixed. They strain when the Democratic coalition turns against Israel and a Republican president becomes the most pro-Israel in modern history. Goldberg sits at the convergence point. He must keep both narratives alive without letting either collapse the other. That is the symbolic management problem his Atlantic editorship solves through curation. He hires writers who carry one or both narratives. He commissions pieces that hold the seam together. The roster is the strategy.
Now Alexander’s naturalistic fallacy. The fallacy says people mistake constructed traumas for natural responses to events. The reverse problem also exists: events that should generate trauma claims sometimes fail to, because no carrier group constructs them. Goldberg’s pre-Iraq War reporting in The New Yorker on alleged Saddam-Qaeda links is the case in point. The reporting helped sell a war that killed hundreds of thousands. If trauma were natural to events, this episode might have ended his career. It did not. The coalition that might have constructed his Iraq journalism as polluting failed to do so, partly because too many of its members were themselves complicit, partly because the liberal-internationalist class needed to forget rather than narrate. Goldberg’s ascent through the 2010s rests on this non-construction. Alexander predicts exactly this outcome. Trauma requires a carrier group with motive and means. When the natural carriers are themselves implicated, the trauma claim does not get made, and the events recede into background noise.
Now switch to the Watergate frame. Alexander argues that Watergate transformed from minor crime to constitutional crisis through a specific ritual sequence. The break-in of June 1972 registered as ordinary politics for fifteen months. Eighty percent of Americans did not care. What changed was not the facts but the symbolic context. Five conditions had to align: social consensus that the event was polluting, perception that the pollution threatened the center of society, activation of institutional social controls, mobilization of differentiated elites who formed countercenters, and effective ritual and purification through which the symbolic distinction between pure and impure was enforced. The televised Senate hearings of 1973 supplied the central ritual. They opened liminal space, a time outside ordinary politics, where senators performed as priests of civic religion and witnesses were compelled to speak the language of sacred values. The Saturday Night Massacre transferred pollution to the structural center.
Goldberg’s Atlantic performs the ritual function in print form. The long Trump-era cover stories operate as liminal documents. They suspend ordinary political analysis and compel the reader into the language of civic sacredness. The Mattis profile, the Milley pieces, the suckers-and-losers story, the analyses of January 6: these are not partisan polemics. They are ritual performances that generalize political conflict upward to the deepest values of the republic. Alexander would recognize the structure immediately. The Atlantic during these years operates as a kind of permanent Senate Watergate Committee in serial form, repeatedly attempting the upward generalization that turned a break-in into a crisis.
The trouble is that the ritual no longer completes. Alexander noted that Watergate succeeded because the polarization of the 1960s had subsided, allowing a national consensus to form around the meaning of the pollution. The current polarization deepens rather than subsides. Goldberg performs the ritual for half the country. The other half reads the same performance as profanation, an instance of liberal media presuming to speak for the sacred while serving partisan ends. The five Alexander conditions never align. Consensus does not form. The countercenter does not differentiate from the center. The institutional controls do not activate. The purification does not occur. The Atlantic stages the ritual. The audience for the ritual is half the audience the ritual needs.
The Signal chat episode of March 2025 is the cleanest test. Mike Waltz inadvertently added Goldberg to a Signal group where senior officials, including the secretary of defense and the vice president, discussed imminent strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Goldberg watched in real time. He left, verified, and published. By Watergate logic this is the central scene of a constitutional drama. Operational security at the highest level fails. Lives might have been lost. The polluting event sits at the structural center of national power. The story should have generalized upward through the five conditions to a moment of civic crisis. It did not. There were no televised hearings. No senatorial priesthood emerged. The administration absorbed the embarrassment, blamed Goldberg for being where he had been placed, and moved on. The story ran one news cycle hot and then dissipated.
What Alexander’s framework explains is why. The five conditions did not align because the polarized field of the 2020s no longer permits the upward generalization that 1973 permitted. Goldberg got the scoop. He could not get the ritual. The structure that converted Watergate from political event into civic crisis is no longer available, and the Atlantic’s editor cannot manufacture it through reporting alone. The carrier group requires an audience whose members will speak the same sacred language, and that audience has fragmented past the point at which a single liturgy reaches it.
Read together, the two Alexander frames give a precise account of Goldberg’s late career. He is a ritual specialist working in a period when the ritual no longer completes. He is a carrier of two trauma narratives that strain against each other under post-October 7 conditions. He runs a magazine that performs civic religion for an audience whose share of the country shrinks. The performance remains beautiful. The Obama interviews still read as priestly ceremonies of liberal-internationalist self-explanation. The Milley material still constructs the officer-priest defending the sacred against the polluter-king. The Suckers and Losers story still does what it did in September 2020. What changes is the field around the performance. The shared sense of a civic center that ritual purification might restore has thinned past the point where Alexander’s Watergate sequence can run.
The Prisoners book closes the loop. Goldberg’s earliest trauma construction was personal. He took the experience of being a Jewish guard at Ketziot during the first intifada and built it into a redemptive narrative about the possibility of friendship across the divide. The book is itself trauma work in Alexander’s exact sense: it answers the four questions, identifies victim and perpetrator, and connects the personal pain to a wider audience of readers who want to believe coexistence remains possible. The career that follows is the institutional version of the same move. Goldberg converts proximity into meaning, encounter into civic significance, private access into public ritual. The Atlantic is the venue. The educated professional class is the congregation. Civil religion is the genre.
Goldberg understands what he does. He has spent his career interpreting other people’s institutions. He now runs one. The institution he runs performs Alexander’s two functions at once and meets, in the present field, the limit of both. The wars are real. So, possibly, is what the combatants are fighting about.

Interaction Ritual Chains by Randall Collins

Jeffrey Goldberg sits at the editor’s desk of The Atlantic. He breaks stories that move presidential politics. He moves between Washington dinner parties, Aspen Ideas Festival panels, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the green rooms of Sunday morning shows. The chain has been running for thirty years. The yield has been substantial.

Run him through Collins.

Goldberg’s foundational ritual is not the courtroom or the lecture hall. It is the interview. He learned the format young. He grew up in Long Island, took an early interest in journalism, and by his twenties had moved to Israel where he served briefly as a guard at a military prison during the First Intifada. He returned to the United States and built a career on access journalism: long-form interviews with hard-to-reach figures, often in conflict zones or in positions of state power. He profiled Hezbollah operatives. He profiled Hamas leaders. He profiled Saudi princes. He profiled American presidents.

Each interview is a Collins ritual. Two men in a room. Mutual focus. Mood synchronization. Sometimes a meal involved, sometimes a long walk, sometimes a sequence of meetings across days. The interview produces collective effervescence in miniature, a charged dyad. The journalist comes away with material. The subject comes away with the sense of having been heard. Both come away with emotional energy attached to the encounter.

Goldberg’s particular skill is the ability to charge these dyads with hard-to-reach figures. He gets the access. The access generates the material. The material generates the article. The article charges symbols in the larger ritual chain of American magazine journalism. The cumulative effect across thirty years has built him into a figure who can ask any current or former president for an interview and reasonably expect to get one.

The Atlantic editorship, which he has held since 2016, is the second major ritual chain. The editor of a major magazine sits at the center of a different kind of ritual setting. He runs the morning meeting. He decides which stories run. He shapes the cover. He selects the writers. He charges the symbols of the magazine’s brand: serious, liberal, internationalist, pro-democracy, anti-Trump, broadly aligned with the American foreign policy establishment. The brand is itself a charged object. The Atlantic under Goldberg has positioned itself as the premier venue for a particular kind of educated liberal anxiety about the state of American democracy. Goldberg charges that brand week by week.

The third chain is the Washington social ritual. The Aspen Ideas Festival panel. The Council on Foreign Relations dinner. The off-the-record gathering at someone’s home in Georgetown. The Renaissance Weekend retreat. The Saban Forum. These are face-to-face ritual settings where the city’s foreign policy elite gathers to charge a shared set of symbols: the importance of American leadership, the dangers of autocracy, the seriousness of the threat from Russia and China and Iran, the moral weight of the transatlantic alliance, the indispensability of NATO, the centrality of the Israeli-American relationship. Goldberg is a regular at these gatherings. He arrives with the credential of the editorship. He charges the symbols the room wants charged. He receives in return the social position of an insider whose presence at the dinner is itself a marker of the dinner’s importance.

The fourth chain is the source relationship. Goldberg has cultivated a small set of high-value sources over decades. Ehud Barak. Benjamin Netanyahu, before the relationship soured. Various senior American national security officials across administrations. Senior Israeli intelligence figures. James Mattis. The relationships are built through the same ritual as the interview, but extended over time. Repeated encounters. Mutual obligation accumulating. The source feeds the journalist. The journalist publishes pieces that serve the source’s interests, sometimes intentionally, sometimes not. The relationship charges the symbols both men want charged. The relationship pays both men in emotional energy and in concrete career terms.

Now look at what these chains have charged.

The master symbol set Goldberg carries is the moral weight of the American-led liberal order, with the State of Israel as a charged secondary symbol nested inside the larger one. The order is real, in his account. The order is good, in his account. The order is threatened, in his account, and the threats come from autocrats abroad and from populists at home. The journalist’s role is to defend the order by exposing the threats. Goldberg has charged this symbol set in every ritual setting he has run for three decades.

The Hezbollah and Hamas profiles in the late 1990s and early 2000s charged the symbol of the journalist as someone willing to enter dangerous spaces to bring back hard truths. The 2002 piece in The New Yorker connecting Saddam Hussein to al-Qaeda, which fed into the case for the Iraq War, charged the symbol of the journalist as a serious player in foreign policy debate. The piece was wrong on its central claims. The chain did not punish the wrongness. The chain rewarded the access and the seriousness. He moved on. The career continued.

Collins notes that successful ritual chains have a way of metabolizing their participants’ errors without breaking the chain. The Iraq piece is a clear case. A journalist whose Iraq work had been cleanly correct would have ridden that to the same career outcomes. A journalist whose Iraq work had been spectacularly wrong, but in a way that flattered the prevailing direction of the foreign policy ritual chain at the time, also rode it to the same career outcomes. The chain rewarded the participation more than the correctness.

The Obama relationship was the next major chain. Goldberg conducted a long series of interviews with Obama across both terms and after. The 2016 Atlantic piece The Obama Doctrine by Jeffrey Goldberg ran to nearly twenty thousand words. The piece is the cleanest example of how the access ritual works at the highest level. Goldberg got hours with the president. The president used the access to shape his foreign policy legacy in his own preferred frame. Goldberg used the access to charge his own symbol of seriousness and to publish a piece that drew enormous attention. Both men served the ritual. Both men came away charged.

The Trump-era ritual chain shifted Goldberg’s symbols sharply. The 2020 piece Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are Losers and Suckers by Jeffrey Goldberg charged the symbol of Trump as morally unfit. The piece was based on anonymous sources. It was denied by named sources who had been in the relevant rooms. It was contested. The chain did not punish the contestation. The chain rewarded the piece’s alignment with the prevailing direction of the elite anti-Trump ritual chain in 2020. Goldberg had aligned his magazine with that chain. The piece served the chain’s needs. The chain repaid him.

Collins is precise about what is happening here. The piece’s truth value matters less than the piece’s ritual fit. A piece that fits the chain charges the chain’s symbols and pays the participants. A piece that does not fit the chain has a hard time getting traction even if accurate. Goldberg has internalized the chain’s needs across decades. He produces what the chain wants produced. The instinct is real. The instinct is also the chain talking through him.

The 2025 Signal chat episode is a useful case. Goldberg was inadvertently added to a Signal group in which senior Trump administration officials were discussing operational details of an upcoming military strike on Houthi targets in Yemen. He published the story. The story dominated news cycles for a week. It charged a long list of symbols at once: the carelessness of Trump administration officials, the seriousness of the journalist as someone who had access to such material even by accident, the importance of The Atlantic as the venue, the recurring pattern of Trump-era operational sloppiness, the implicit contrast with the seriousness of pre-Trump national security practice. Every one of these symbols was already charged in Goldberg’s chain. The Signal episode added another deposit to symbols he had been charging for years.

Run the Iran interview pattern. Goldberg has interviewed nearly every major Israeli prime minister of the past three decades. He has profiled Iranian officials when access was available. He has written extensively on the Iranian nuclear program. The frame of his Iran coverage has been steady: Iran as the central regional threat, the Iranian regime as a serious danger, the diplomatic management of the threat as a defining problem of American foreign policy. The frame fits the broader frame of his chain. The frame has shaped a generation of educated American liberal opinion on Iran. The frame has also been wrong in significant ways across that period, in particular in the years leading up to the 2015 nuclear deal, when his coverage helped sustain a narrative the deal partially dismantled. He adjusted to the deal when it came. He adjusted again when the Trump administration withdrew from it. The chain absorbed each adjustment without break.

The Israel coverage has run through the same pattern. Goldberg’s relationship with the Israeli political and security establishment has been close for decades. His profile of Netanyahu in 2010 in The Atlantic, The Point of No Return by Jeffrey Goldberg, charged the symbol of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran. The strike did not come. The chain did not punish him. He continued covering the relationship. His Netanyahu coverage soured during the Trump alignment with Netanyahu. He pivoted. The pivot was not principled in any way the chain visibly registered. It was the chain reorienting around a new alignment of symbols. Netanyahu had moved into the Trump symbol cluster. Goldberg’s chain was now opposed to the Trump symbol cluster. The pivot followed.

His coverage of the Gaza war since October 2023 has been the most exposed test of the chain. The chain’s symbols include both the moral weight of Israeli security and the moral weight of liberal humanitarian concern. The two have been in tension. Goldberg’s coverage has mostly held the Israeli security frame, with humanitarian concern visible but secondary. He has not moved with the parts of the chain, particularly its younger and more progressive nodes, that have shifted to a sharper critique of the Israeli campaign. The result has been a noticeable strain inside The Atlantic and inside the broader chain. Younger writers have left or pushed back. The magazine has lost some standing with parts of its former audience. The chain has rewarded Goldberg for holding the older frame, with older sources and older readers, while costing him with newer ones.

This is the Collins prediction in a sharp form. The man holds the symbols the chain that built him has charged. He cannot easily release them. Releasing them would cost him his standing in the chain that pays him. Holding them costs him standing in newer chains that he was never inside. The cost is asymmetric. He holds the older frame because the older frame is where his career sits.

A few specific features of Goldberg’s work resolve through this lens.

His prose style is the prose style of the access journalist. The pieces foreground the encounter, the room, the meal, the exact words the subject used. The reader is brought into the dyad. The reader becomes a third participant in the original ritual. The technique generates emotional energy in the reader by reproducing some of the charge the original encounter produced. The technique is effective. It is also limiting. It centers the figures who grant access and marginalizes the figures who do not. Hezbollah operatives who would meet with him appear as figures of complex humanity in his work. The Lebanese, Palestinian, or Iranian figures who would not meet with him appear as abstractions or villains. The chain rewards the access. The access shapes the picture.

His relationship to his sources is closer than the standard journalistic norm allows but not closer than the chain rewards. The Mattis relationship in particular has run for years. Mattis figures in the 2020 Losers and Suckers piece. Mattis figures in subsequent reporting. Mattis is a charged source for Goldberg. The relationship serves both men. Mattis’s reputation gets shaped by the framing in The Atlantic. Goldberg’s pieces get the weight of Mattis’s involvement. The chain rewards the relationship. The chain does not punish the closeness.

His public persona is part of the ritual. He gives interviews himself. He goes on podcasts. He appears on cable. He defends his work in public when challenged. The defense is part of the ritual. He does not back down from contested pieces. The non-backing-down is itself a charged move that strengthens his position with his audience. A journalist who retracted often would not hold the chain’s high position. Goldberg almost never retracts. He stands by the work. The standing is the ritual. The chain pays him for the standing.

Goldberg’s self-account is that he is a journalist following the story wherever it leads, applying serious craft to important questions, holding power accountable. The self-account is sincere. The chain requires it to be sincere. A journalist who saw himself primarily as a charged node in a Washington-Aspen-Atlantic ritual chain would be less effective as a journalist. The self-deception is functional in Trivers’ sense. It allows the chain to work through him without his having to register that the chain is working through him.

From inside the self-account, his Iran coverage was rigorous. His Iraq piece was a good-faith effort with what he had. His Trump pieces were hard-hitting truth-telling. His Gaza coverage is balanced and fair. The self-account treats each judgment as the product of the journalist’s craft applied to the material.

From outside, the pattern shows a different shape. The pieces that fit the chain’s prevailing direction got published, got traction, and got rewarded. The pieces that did not fit either did not get written or did not get the same treatment. The chain shaped the work more than the work shaped the chain. Goldberg’s role was to be the man through whom the chain produced its premier products in this niche, the access-driven foreign policy and political profile aimed at educated liberal readers.

The alignment is not primarily ideological. It is ritual. It runs through the body, through the meals, through the synchronization of mood across thousands of encounters in the rooms where the chain meets. The journalist is shaped by the rooms he eats in, the panels he sits on, the editors who hire him, the sources who return his calls. The shaping is mostly invisible to him. He experiences his views as his own. They are his own. They are also the deposit of the rooms.

A prediction the frame supports. Goldberg will continue producing work in the frame his chain has built him into. The frame may evolve as the chain evolves. The chain is currently evolving in unstable ways. The educated liberal foreign policy consensus that The Atlantic under Goldberg has represented is under pressure from above and below. From above, the foreign policy establishment itself is fragmenting, with realists, restrainers, and cold warriors no longer holding the same ground. From below, the magazine’s own younger writers and readers are pulling toward positions Goldberg’s chain does not naturally accommodate. The chain will either reorganize, with Goldberg adjusting or being adjusted out, or it will hold its current shape and lose ground. Goldberg is in his early sixties. He has another decade of high-yield ritual settings ahead of him at current rates if the chain holds.

The credential and the manner do not settle the underlying claims. Goldberg as the editor of The Atlantic writing about a leaked Signal chat has done the work the chain rewards. The work may also be accurate, important, and well-executed journalism. The two judgments are separate. The reader who treats the credential as evidence of accuracy is making the mistake the credential is designed to allow him to make. The credential is the chain’s product. The accuracy of any particular piece has to be evaluated on its own merits, against standards the chain does not enforce. The chain enforces ritual fit. The reader has to enforce the rest.

Goldberg as Pseudoargument: A Pinsof Reading

Goldberg has produced different kinds of writing across his career, and the different kinds answer the Pinsof diagnostic in different ways. The interesting case is the body of Middle East reporting and commentary, particularly the work on Iraq before the 2003 war, on Iran’s nuclear program through the 2000s and 2010s, and on Israeli-Palestinian questions across the full period.
Begin with the format. Goldberg writes long-form magazine journalism, a few books, and editorial commentary. The long-form work appears in The Atlantic, The New Yorker, and The New York Times Magazine, publications that carry the reputational weight of the most prestigious American magazine journalism. The work is fact-checked, edited, and framed within institutional conventions that present themselves as inquiry. The reporting includes embedded access to sources at the highest levels of the American, Israeli, and broader Middle Eastern political and security establishments. Goldberg is among the most institutionally connected American journalists working on the region, and his access has been a defining feature of his career.
The first thing Pinsof’s framework registers is that the format presents itself as inquiry while operating with structural features that complicate the inquiry function. Access journalism of the kind Goldberg practices depends on relationships with sources who provide information on terms the journalist accepts. The terms typically include framing concessions that the journalist would not accept from sources he held at greater distance. The framing concessions become structural features of the work, not because the journalist is dishonest, but because access journalism cannot continue if the framings the sources prefer are repeatedly rejected. Pinsof’s framework reads this kind of structural pressure as one of the conditions under which the form of journalism drifts from inquiry toward something that performs inquiry while serving other functions.
The most important test case is the pre-2003 Iraq reporting. Goldberg’s March 2002 New Yorker article “The Great Terror” presented an extended argument that Saddam Hussein’s regime had connections to al-Qaeda and that Iraq’s chemical and biological weapons programs posed an immediate threat. The article was widely cited by Bush administration officials in the months before the invasion. Vice President Cheney recommended it publicly. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld discussed it in interviews. The article became part of the public case for the war, and the war’s premises turned out to be wrong. No operational al-Qaeda connection existed. The biological and chemical weapons programs at the scale described did not exist. The nuclear program at the scale described did not exist. The article’s central factual claims did not survive the war they helped enable.
Pinsof’s framework does not classify the article as pseudoargument simply because its claims turned out to be wrong. Real argument can be wrong. The framework’s diagnostic is structural rather than retrospective. The relevant question is whether the form of the article fit the function of inquiry that the article claimed for itself. The structural diagnostic produces a clear finding. The article engaged sources who were known by other journalists to be unreliable, including Iraqi defectors associated with the Iraqi National Congress whose claims were already being disputed by intelligence professionals. The article presented these sources without the qualifications that the disputes within the intelligence community would have warranted. The article did not engage the strongest versions of the opposing analysis, which held that the Iraqi WMD programs had largely been dismantled after 1991 and that no operational al-Qaeda connection existed. The opposing analysis was being made by analysts inside the CIA, by United Nations weapons inspectors, and by some journalists at other publications. The article did not represent these analysts at their strongest, and it did not give the reader the materials he would have needed to evaluate the case on the merits.
This is the pattern Pinsof’s framework identifies as pseudoargument. The form does not fit the function of persuasion, because persuasion requires engagement with the strongest opposing case. The form fits the function of coalition consolidation around an analysis the coalition wanted ratified. The coalition in this instance included the Bush administration, the broader American foreign-policy establishment that supported confrontation with Iraq, and the segment of American Jewish opinion that saw the removal of the Iraqi regime as a strategic priority for Israel. The article performed the function of providing a respectable intellectual framing for the war the coalition was preparing to fight. That the article also performed the function of advancing Goldberg’s career and his standing within the access-journalism ecosystem is consistent with the framework’s predictions about how pseudoargument operations distribute benefits to their practitioners.
A complication is worth dwelling on. Goldberg has acknowledged elements of the article’s failure. He has not claimed that the war was a success or that the WMD claims were vindicated. The acknowledgment is partial and has been delivered in registers that minimize its impact on his standing, but it is not absent. Pinsof’s framework allows for partial acknowledgment without changing the structural diagnosis. The diagnosis applies to what the article was doing at the time of its publication, and what it was doing at the time was supplying the materials for a coalition decision that the coalition had largely already made. Subsequent acknowledgment that the materials were faulty does not change what the article was doing when it appeared.
The Iran reporting from the same period and through the following decade shows similar patterns. Goldberg’s writing on Iran’s nuclear program advanced framings that aligned with Israeli and American hawk positions on the urgency of the threat and the limited time available for non-military responses. The framings were presented as the conclusions of careful inquiry, with extensive reporting and high-level access. The framings served the function of providing intellectual cover for policy positions the relevant coalitions were advancing. Predictions about Iranian nuclear timelines made in this body of work have largely failed to materialize on the schedules suggested. The failure has not produced the kind of retrospective accounting that real argument would require. The work has continued in adjacent registers without the foundational reckoning that the failed predictions would warrant.
Pinsof’s framework reads this pattern as a sign that the function of the work was not inquiry. Inquiry requires accountability to the world. Predictions that fail produce revisions to the framework that generated them. The framework reads continued operation without revision as a marker that the work was performing functions other than inquiry, and that the other functions did not depend on predictive accuracy.
The Israeli-Palestinian writing across Goldberg’s career shows the framework’s diagnostic operating across a longer time horizon. Goldberg writes from a position. He served in the IDF. His friendship with a Palestinian prisoner is the subject of his book. His reporting has presented Palestinian sources sympathetically in some pieces and Israeli sources sympathetically in others. The framings vary by piece. What is consistent across the body of work is the framing of the Israeli-Palestinian question within parameters that the American Jewish liberal Zionist coalition has set. The two-state solution as the horizon of legitimate aspiration. The Israeli security establishment as a legitimate authority on the threats Israel faces. The various Palestinian political formations as actors whose legitimacy depends on their acceptance of the parameters the coalition has set.
The framings are not invented by Goldberg. They are the framings of the coalition his journalism serves. Pinsof’s framework does not require that journalists invent the framings their work advances. It requires that the form of the work fit the function of inquiry the work claims for itself. The structural diagnostic produces consistent findings across the body of Israeli-Palestinian writing. The strongest versions of Palestinian critiques of Israeli policy are not engaged at their strongest. The strongest versions of Israeli critiques of the peace-process framing are not engaged at their strongest. The strongest versions of analysts who have argued that the two-state solution is no longer feasible are not engaged at their strongest. The strongest versions of analysts who have argued that American support for Israel has produced strategic costs the United States has not adequately reckoned with are not engaged at their strongest. The work performs inquiry on questions inside the coalition’s parameters. It does not perform inquiry on the parameters themselves.
This is the pattern Pinsof’s framework identifies as pseudoargument operating at the highest level of journalistic craft. The form is sophisticated. The reporting is real. The access is unusual. The prose is accomplished. The work passes the institutional standards of the publications in which it appears. What it does not do is engage the questions that would test the coalition’s parameters. The questions that would test the parameters are precisely the questions the framework predicts pseudoargument will avoid, because engaging them would require the work to perform a function the work is not built to perform.
The Signal chat article from March 2024 is worth examining as a separate case, because its function differs from the function of the Middle East reporting. The article presented a story in which Goldberg himself was the protagonist, having been added to a Signal chat in which Trump administration officials discussed military strikes on the Houthis. The story was a substantial scoop, and the reporting on the contents of the chat was straightforward. The article performed inquiry on a specific factual question about the conduct of the Trump national-security team. Pinsof’s framework reads this kind of work as closer to real argument than the Middle East reporting, because the structural pressures are different. The story did not depend on access to sources who could pull access if their preferred framings were not advanced. The story emerged from an inadvertent disclosure, and the reporting on it could proceed on terms the journalist set. The article’s framing of the disclosure as evidence of operational sloppiness in the Trump administration was a framing the article supported with the documentary record it had obtained. The framing was a framing Goldberg’s coalition would welcome, but the framing was also a framing the documentary record actually warranted. The form fit the function more cleanly in this case than in the Middle East reporting.
The Signal article also performed status operations of the kind Pinsof’s framework identifies. The article elevated Goldberg as the figure who had been entrusted, however inadvertently, with information of national-security significance, and who had handled the situation with the discretion and seriousness the situation required. The status elevation was real, but the framework allows status elevation to coexist with real argument when the underlying work meets the inquiry standard. The Signal article meets the standard more cleanly than the Iraq or Iran work, because the underlying factual question was straightforward and the documentary record settled most of the disputable points.
Now stand back and look at the full picture. Goldberg’s body of work is heterogeneous in a way that the bodies of work of Duke, Jones, or Marantz are not. Some pieces operate as access journalism within institutional pressures that produce pseudoargument outputs. Other pieces operate on factual questions where the documentary record is sufficient to settle the dispute and where the form can fit the function of inquiry. The variation is the same kind of variation Cofnas’s case shows across registers, though with Goldberg the variation occurs within the same register depending on the structural features of each story.
The dominant pattern, however, is the pattern of access journalism on contested political questions, and on this dominant pattern the framework’s diagnostic produces a clear pseudoargument verdict. The Iraq reporting fits the diagnostic. The Iran reporting fits the diagnostic. The Israeli-Palestinian writing fits the diagnostic. The framework reads these bodies of work as performing the functions of coalition consolidation, rationalization of coalition policy preferences, status defense for the coalition’s institutional positions, and concealment of all of the above under the conventions of careful magazine journalism. The work does not engage the strongest opposing views, does not display the markers of inquiry that real argument requires, does not track its predictions and revise its framework when predictions fail, and does not examine the parameters within which it conducts its discussions.
Several Pinsof diagnostics check out across the dominant pattern.
The work treats opposition as confirmation. When critics from outside the coalition Goldberg’s work serves have raised objections, the objections have been engaged in registers that minimize their force. Critics who pointed out the failure of the Iraq predictions have been treated as figures whose criticisms reflect predictable political positions rather than as figures whose criticisms might require fundamental revision of the framework that produced the failed predictions. The structure closes the system. Pinsof’s framework reads this as a status-defense operation performing tribal inoculation.
The work shows little curiosity about counterexamples that would complicate the coalition’s framings. Israeli policies that the coalition has supported have been treated with a charity that policies of comparable severity by other states would not receive. Palestinian political formations have been evaluated against criteria that other national movements with comparable historical experiences would not meet. The asymmetries are not addressed within the work. They are features the work proceeds within rather than questions the work engages.
The work performs sustained status attack on figures the coalition treats as enemies. Iranian leaders, Palestinian leaders perceived as obstacles to the coalition’s preferred framings, and American political figures whose foreign-policy positions diverge from the coalition’s positions are subjects of unflattering portraits across the body of work. The portraits are achieved through the conventions of magazine journalism rather than through crude polemic, but the cumulative effect is the lowering of the targeted figures’ standing in the eyes of the readership the magazines serve. Pinsof’s framework reads this as a standard pseudoargument operation performed at unusually high craft.
The work performs sustained status defense for the coalition’s institutional figures. Israeli prime ministers, American national-security officials aligned with the coalition’s preferences, and Jewish institutional leaders are presented in ways that emphasize their seriousness, their constraints, and their good faith. Critics of these figures are presented in ways that emphasize their unreasonableness, their political motivations, or their misunderstanding of the constraints the figures operate within. The asymmetric treatment is structural rather than incidental.
The concealment function operates through the conventions of magazine journalism. Goldberg presents himself as a journalist following the story, not as a coalition combatant rendering opposing coalitions for the consumption of his own. The presentation is necessary because, as Pinsof points out, overt tribal performance loses status and effectiveness. The work has to present itself as inquiry to do its rallying and rationalizing work. The conventions of The Atlantic and The New Yorker, with their fact-checking apparatus and their reputation for careful work, supply the credentials the concealment function requires. The credentials are real. The fact-checking is real. The framings the credentials support are framings the coalition has set, and the framings do work the credentials cannot vindicate independently.
A point of contrast with the Marantz case clarifies what is distinctive about Goldberg. Marantz’s work renders one coalition for another coalition’s consumption from within the conventions of magazine journalism. Goldberg’s work renders foreign actors and contested international questions for one coalition’s consumption from within the same conventions. The Marantz operation is more visible to readers who notice that they are being given a tribal portrait, because the subjects are figures the readership does not know personally and can evaluate the portrait against. The Goldberg operation is less visible, because the subjects are foreign actors and complex international situations the readership cannot evaluate the portraits against. The reader has to trust the journalist’s framings, and the framings the journalist supplies are the framings the coalition has set. The structural pressures on Goldberg’s work are heavier than the structural pressures on Marantz’s work, because the access economy in foreign-policy journalism is tighter than the access economy in domestic political journalism, and the readership’s ability to check the framings is weaker.
The framework also illuminates why responses to Goldberg from outside his coalition have largely failed to dent the work’s standing within the coalition. Critics from realist, dissident-right, and dissident-left positions have answered Goldberg’s work on its own terms, treating it as journalism that has gotten the analysis wrong, and providing counter-analyses that emphasize different evidence. The strategy is reasonable but partial. If the work is pseudoargument, then disputing its analytical claims does not address what the work is doing. The work’s function is coalition consolidation for The Atlantic’s readership and the broader American Jewish liberal Zionist coalition the readership overlaps with. That function is not defeated by counter-analyses, because the readership does not consume the counter-analyses in the first place. The function is defeated, when it is defeated at all, by exposure of the function. Showing what the work is doing as an activity is more damaging to the work than showing that any particular analysis within it is mistaken.
The qualification that has applied to the previous cases applies here as well. Pinsof’s framework does not require that pseudoargument be conscious. Goldberg might believe he is engaged in journalism aimed at understanding the questions he covers. The function of an activity is not always transparent to the actor. What the framework requires is that the form fail to fit the claimed function and that the actual function become visible when the form is examined. Goldberg’s work passes that test on the dominant pattern of his Middle East writing, even if the Signal article and a few other pieces sit closer to the inquiry standard. The dominant pattern performs the operations Pinsof describes, and it performs them with a craft that explains the work’s standing in its target readership for nearly three decades.
The applied verdict is that Goldberg’s body of Middle East reporting and commentary is pseudoargument of unusual journalistic craft. The reporting, the high-level access, the fact-checked endnotes, the polished prose, and the air of careful observation are all parts of a cover story for operations that perform coalition consolidation rather than inquiry into the questions the work claims to address. The operations are tribal. The tribe is the American Jewish liberal Zionist coalition and the broader foreign-policy establishment that has set the parameters within which Goldberg’s work operates. The work rallies, rationalizes, attacks the coalition’s enemies, defends the coalition’s institutional figures, and conceals all of the above under the conventions of magazine journalism. It does each competently enough that the cover has held within its target readership across multiple major events, including events on which the work’s framings have failed badly.
The proper response, on Pinsof’s account, is recognition rather than rejection. The work has value within its function. It gives its readership a coherent framing of complex international questions that the readership uses for political and social purposes. What the work cannot do is what it claims to do, which is to provide an inquiry into the questions it addresses that a reader could use to understand those questions on their own terms. A reader who wants that kind of understanding has to read the analysts the work does not engage, in their strongest forms, and to evaluate their arguments directly. Goldberg’s work cannot substitute for this evaluation, because Goldberg’s work was not built to perform it. It was built to perform a different function, and on the dominant pattern of his career, it has performed that function with the institutional skill the function requires.

Essentialism

Stephen Turner attacks the habit of positing a shared inner essence and then using it to explain behavior. To say a regime acts as it does because of its essence explains nothing. It names the outcome and projects it backward as a cause. Goldberg’s foreign-affairs journalism runs on exactly this move. His 2002 New Yorker piece built a case that Saddam Hussein (1937-2006) had ties to al-Qaeda by reading the nature of the Baathist state, its character, what it was at bottom. The reading was wrong. Turner would say the error sits inside the method. There was no Baathist essence to read. There were men with incentives, fears, and local histories, and Goldberg supplied a hidden disposition that felt like access and forecast nothing. The authority of the piece came from sounding like a man who had touched the essence of the thing. That is the trick Turner spent his life dismantling.
The same logic runs through Goldberg’s writing on Iran, on Hamas, on Israeli purpose. He tells readers what these actors are. Turner answers that “what they are” is a distribution of individual habits and pressures, not a substance shared across members and transmitted intact. The collective noun does the work, and the work is illusion. Goldberg is good at making the noun feel solid. Solidity sells.
His book Prisoners (2006) is the place where the essentialism strains and partly breaks. The book is about his friendship with a Palestinian he guarded at Ketziot. Two men, one relationship, against the categories. Turner would notice that the drama only lands if “Israeli” and “Palestinian” name real essences for the friendship to cross. The book leans on the categories even as it complicates them. That tension is the honest core of Goldberg, and it shows he half-knows the essences are thinner than his geopolitical writing pretends.
The Atlantic he edits sells essence at scale. The brand runs a 168-year continuous identity from Emerson and Longfellow down to the current masthead, an unbroken American idea. Turner would cut through it. Nothing essential travels from 1857 to now. Successive staffs hold different habits and serve different readers. The continuity is a useful fiction, and Goldberg’s editorship trades on it. He inherited an essence to market and he markets it well, past a million subscribers.

Explaining the Normative

In Explaining the Normative, Stephen Turner refuses the normativist trick. The normative does not name a separate realm of facts that float free of causal processes. When a man invokes a norm, a rule, a standard, or a moral fact, Turner asks what causal work the invocation does and what trained responses sit beneath it. The normative names a projection participants make onto patterns of trained response. The premium people claim by appealing to it, the extra authority, the moral seriousness, the access to standards above custom, has no backing apart from the practice that produces it.
Goldberg trades in normative pronouncements as his daily work. As editor of The Atlantic, and before that as a reporter at The New Yorker, he ranks figures by their seriousness. He sorts criticism of Israel into legitimate and illegitimate piles. He names what counts as antisemitic and what does not. He decides which intelligence officials count as credible. He does not present these as expressions of preference or position. He presents them as discernment of standards.
Turner asks what happens when Goldberg discerns.
Goldberg reaches no separate realm of moral facts. He trained in a formation. Penn, brief service in the IDF, The Jerusalem Post, The New Yorker, The Atlantic. He moves through a network of intelligence officials, Israeli policy figures, donors, and editors who share habits of response. When he calls a thing dangerous or unserious, he makes a move his network recognizes and rewards. The recognition is the standard. No standard sits above the recognition.
Press him for the rules and he cannot give them. He has trained reactions. A pitch arrives, a name comes up, a story breaks, and he knows where to place it. The knowing comes fast and resists challenge from outside. Inside the formation it reads as judgment. He offers cases, examples, instances of bad judgment by others and good judgment by men he respects. The criteria stay in his head and in the heads of his peers. A verdict no outsider can cross-check is a verdict, not a finding. That unreviewability is what Turner suspects.
His verdicts lean on invoked entities. The bipartisan consensus on Israel. Responsible journalism. The line between criticism and antisemitism. These carry no force apart from the trained responses of the men who invoke them. Strip the responses and the entities vanish. Strip the entities and the responses remain and keep working.
The Signal episode of March 2025 shows the pattern under strain. Senior Trump officials added Goldberg by accident to a chat planning strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Goldberg published. Whether this counted as a scandal, who bore responsibility, what the norms of national security communication required, the norms settled none of it. The positions of the actors did. Goldberg’s framing won in some quarters and lost in others. The norm adjudicated nothing. It named what the winners’ habits had ratified.
Goldberg claims, by his position and his performance, to detect standards. The claim earns him deference, access, sources, influence. Turner’s question is whether anything gets detected. A trained sensibility produces verdicts. Other trained sensibilities ratify them. The verdicts become the standards against which fresh cases get judged. The circle closes. No fact outside the circle does the work the circle pretends to track.

Turner on the Tacit

In The Social Theory of Practices, Stephen Turner takes the idea of tacit knowledge and turns it against the theorists who lean on it. The idea comes from Polanyi. A man knows more than he can tell. He learns a craft, a way of seeing, and the knowing sits below the rules he could write down. Turner grants this at the level of the single man. He denies the next step, the one social theory wants, where the tacit turns into a shared thing, a common stock of background many heads hold together. Tacit knowledge cannot pass between heads in explicit form. That is what makes it tacit. So no shared tacit content gets transmitted. Each man builds his own habits through his own training. When two men respond alike, the likeness is an overlap of separate histories, not a draw on one common store.
Goldberg’s work runs on the tacit. He knows a story when he sees one. He knows which sentence carries a piece and which sentence sinks it, which writer to send at a subject, when a draft is done. The knowing comes fast. Ask him for the rule and he cannot give it. He learned the craft on a long road. Police reporter at the Washington Post, the Jerusalem Post, the New York Times Magazine, the New Yorker, the Atlantic. The road laid down trained reactions he runs on every day and cannot fully say.
So far Turner agrees. The trouble starts where Goldberg’s authority rests on a shared tacit knowledge he supposedly carries with other serious editors. News judgment. The craft of the editor. The Atlantic house standard handed down across a hundred and sixty-eight years. Turner dissolves all of it. There is no common body of editorial tacit knowledge sitting above the men and feeding into each one. There are many editors, each with his own habituation, trained in overlapping circuits, reacting in overlapping ways. The overlap looks like a shared possession to an observer who needs one. Nothing shared does the work. Separate histories that ran through the same few magazines produce verdicts that resemble one another, and the resemblance gets named a standard.
Watch what happens when Goldberg edits a young writer. The common picture says he transmits his judgment, pours his tacit craft into the writer’s head. Turner says that cannot happen, because the tacit will not move in explicit form. Goldberg marks up the copy, sends it back, marks it again. The writer builds his own habits against Goldberg’s reactions. After a year the writer’s judgment resembles Goldberg’s. Nothing passed between them. The writer trained himself against a stimulus until his habits matched. The newsroom habituates. It does not transmit.
The Signal episode of March 2025 shows the individual grain of the tacit. Senior Trump officials added Goldberg by accident to a chat planning strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. He read it, recognized what he held, and published. He ran no explicit procedure. He knew. The knowing came from decades of the work, his work, his history. Put another editor in the chat and the response splits. One sits on it. One calls a lawyer first. One never grasps what he is holding. If a single shared body of journalistic tacit knowledge stood behind all of them, the responses would converge. They scatter. The scatter is the proof. Each man brings his own trained reaction, built on his own road, articulable to none of them, and shared with no one.

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NYT: An Israeli-Born Scholar of the Holocaust Mourns for His Country

Jennifer Szalai writes:

What makes the current catastrophe so tragic, he says, is that it was far from inevitable. Bartov discusses the Nakba, the violent displacement of Palestinians in 1948. From the beginning, he emphasizes, Zionism had two faces: one that was liberatory and pluralist, the other ethnonationalist. Over the decades, the emancipatory element receded while the ethnonationalist element was elevated to a “state ideology.”

The result has been a terrible irony for a country that was founded as a refuge from intolerance: “How is it that the appeal to humanitarianism, tolerance, the rule of law and protection of minorities that characterized the beginning of Jewish self-emancipation gradually acquired all the traits of the relentless, remorseless and increasingly racist ethnonationalisms from which Zionism sought to liberate European Jewry?”Hamas does not lack information about Israelis. Settlers in Hebron do not lack information about Palestinians. The IDF officer who runs operations in Gaza has read enough about Palestinian suffering. Knesset members who back the Smotrich and Ben-Gvir line do not wait for a good book. Each side has a coherent picture of the other and a coherent picture of what it wants. The pictures cannot both win on the same land.
Bartov’s training as a Holocaust scholar pushes him toward the lesson that recognition prevents catastrophe. That lesson fits 1930s Europe, where the targeted population had no army, no state, no allies, and little information about what awaited them. It fits poorly in a setting where two nations with armies, intelligence services, foreign sponsors, and decades of contact compete for the same territory.
The honest questions are coalitional. Which side wins, which loses, what costs each side will absorb, and what an outside power decides to enforce. Bartov gestures at this when he credits Trump’s pressure on Netanyahu and says change will come from outside.
Why is there such an enormous demand for this shoddy thinking by elite media?
Elite media serves a particular readership. That readership is educated, liberal-leaning, often Jewish or Jewish-adjacent, embedded in institutions that punish coalitional honesty. The reader wants to criticize Israeli conduct without joining the right or the campus left. He wants to mourn Palestinian deaths without abandoning the Holocaust frame that has organized his moral world for sixty years. He wants to feel serious without paying coalitional costs.
Bartov delivers the product. Israeli-born, IDF veteran, Brown professor, family in Israel. Critics cannot dismiss him as ignorant or antisemitic. He keeps careful distinctions. He cites the legal definitions. He hopes books can help.
The “more understanding” frame does heavy work for elite media. If conflicts come from ignorance, the cure is reading. The reader who buys the book and discusses it at dinner joins the solution. The reviewer who explains the book does moral labor. The newspaper that prints the reviewer fulfills its civic role. The pipeline acquires moral weight from the premise that knowledge prevents catastrophe.
If conflicts come from coalition competition over land, water, demographic survival, and external sponsorship, the pipeline collapses. Books do not settle those questions. Power does. Sensitive readers do not influence Smotrich or Sinwar’s successors. The reader’s moral seriousness becomes a private hobby with no civic function.
The Holocaust frame gives elite media its strongest justification. Treating every conflict through “never again” elevates the stakes of media work to existential weight. It also flatters the reader, who casts himself as the alert citizen who will catch the warning signs the appeasers missed in the 1930s. Books like Bartov’s keep the frame alive even when applied to fights that have nothing structural in common with 1930s Europe.
The alternative is harder to sell. Saying the war is a coalition contest with winners and losers, that outside powers determine outcomes, that humanism has no purchase on Hamas’s leaders or the settler movement, removes the reader from the story. It also collapses the moral architecture of liberal humanism, which holds that decent people informed by good books can change history. That architecture is what elite media sells.
Bartov’s career illustrates the coalition logic. He criticized Israel from a position protected by his credentials, his IDF service, his family ties, his Holocaust scholarship. The Haaretz response from his fellow scholars did not engage his evidence. It accused him of inflammatory speech. He survived because Brown and the NYT sit inside a different coalition than Haaretz contributors. The same essay from an Arab scholar at a state university might have ended a career. The system rewards particular people for particular criticisms made in particular venues.
The supply of Bartov-style books exists because demand is steady. Editors commission them. Reviewers praise them. Readers buy them. Each link in the chain depends on the premise that understanding produces peace.

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‘The Lamps Are Going Out’

Christopher Caldwell writes in the Claremont Review of Books:

Westad astutely notes that the Industrial Revolution was, in its own way, an information revolution avant la lettre. The speed with which fast trains allowed countries to mobilize troops, and with which telegraphs could report mobilization to foreign governments, turned mobilization itself into a de facto act of war. In a similar way, the introduction of A.I. onto battlefields may draw us into unanticipated blunders, the way stock-trading algorithms have produced periodic “flash crashes” over the past generation. More information doesn’t always mean you make better decisions—it may mean you have to make decisions more quickly, which often means lousier decisions.

Though it was not Westad’s intent, no one will close The Coming Storm without thinking of President Trump’s strike on Iran. Leaders of countries that were falling behind in 1914—as Britain was falling behind Germany, and Germany felt it was falling behind Russia—had incentives to take risks. They assumed it would be better to fight today than tomorrow. This was a calamitous miscalculation. While they were not looking, a much faster mechanism of automatic escalation had been built into the system, and they were too short-sighted to see it.

Caldwell’s review does what his reviews always do. He uses a respectable European source to dress paleocon positions in continental clothing.
The structural argument runs like this. Britain in 1914 was a financial empire that had hollowed out its manufacturing, run up trade deficits, lost rule-making leverage abroad, and faced a working class displaced by globalized labor competition. America in 2026 is the same picture. Therefore Trump’s tariff politics is not a personal tic but a predictable response of a declining hegemon, with Joseph Chamberlain as a respectable predecessor. Therefore neocon foreign policy is the disease, not the cure. Therefore China is less of a threat than the consensus claims because its demographic collapse and military inexperience leave it weaker than it looks. Therefore the Iran strike repeats the 1914 mistake of a falling power taking risks it thinks will be cheaper today than tomorrow.
The whole argument routes through Westad. Caldwell never has to make the paleocon case in his own voice. A Yale historian makes it for him. This is the Caldwell house style. He cycles between the New York Times Magazine, Claremont, and the Financial Times, and the work that lets him hold all three perches is the work of laundering Claremont-aligned positions through sources liberal readers recognize as legitimate. Houellebecq, Bjorn Lomborg, now Westad.
The ecumenical surface flatters multiple coalitions at once. Reagan and Obama get paired as presidents of restraint. Trump gets credit for stepping back from Biden-era commitments and gets hinted criticism for the Iran strike. Westad gets used to validate populist economics without Caldwell ever endorsing them in his own name. The reader infers what he is supposed to infer based on which coalition he sits in.
The Britain-America structural parallel is selective. Britain in 1914 was a creditor empire whose pound sterling reserve status rested on a current account surplus and London’s role as the world’s net capital exporter. America is a debtor empire whose dollar reserve status rests on capital inflows and the safety of its assets relative to the rest of the world. The two cases share imperial overstretch and trade deficits and differ on the financial structure that lets them sustain those deficits. Caldwell collapses the cases by emphasizing what they share and skipping what they don’t.
The Kennedy citation does more work than it should. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers came out in 1987. Within four years the Soviet Union had collapsed and Japan had begun a generation-long stagnation, and the predicted American decline ran in reverse for two decades. Kennedy’s predictive record on the empire he was discussing is poor. Citing him as if Westad’s variant inherits his authority papers over this.
The German-rise story comes in the paleocon register. Germany succeeded by exploiting British free trade and stealing patents. The sources of German economic strength in the late 19th century, the technical universities, the chemical industry, the cartelized banking system, the apprenticeship structure, drop out. The story Caldwell tells is the story that justifies tariffs. The fuller story might complicate that justification.
The China section is worth reading for what it omits. Westad’s view of China gets mined for the demographic collapse and military inexperience and not for the industrial base, the manufacturing share, the rare-earth chokeholds, or the Belt and Road financing structure that makes 120 countries China’s primary trading partner. Caldwell takes the parts of Westad that minimize the China threat and skips the parts that magnify it, because magnifying the China threat justifies the imperial commitments he wants to discredit.
The class-strike parallel is the weakest piece. Britain in 1912 lost 40 million workdays to strikes. American work stoppages in recent years run far below that on a per-worker basis. Caldwell wants to read 1912-style class conflict into present American conditions because it makes Trump’s populism look like a structural response rather than a political accident. The data doesn’t support the parallel.
The deepest move is the framing of financialization. Caldwell writes that keeping the social peace requires handling money in a way that experts consider stupid. The line is the heart of the Claremont position. The technocratic class is the problem. The financiers and economists who run the imperial machine extract rent at the expense of the domestic working class, and the political project of the populist right is to take the machine back from them. The line scans as bipartisan critique, with Obama and Clinton both named, but the political vehicle for the project is one party, not both.
Missing from the piece is any account of why a financial empire produces a class structure that resists redistribution. Caldwell notes that Obama and Clinton couldn’t redistribute despite their rhetoric, and treats this as oddness or weakness. The paleocon explanation is that the donor class captured both parties. The structural explanation is that an economy whose comparative advantage runs through finance and intellectual property generates returns concentrated in college-educated coastal labor markets, and the median voter coalition needed to redistribute against those returns is hard to assemble. Caldwell gestures at the first explanation and avoids the second.
Caldwell’s prose moves. The bin Laden opener does what it is supposed to do. The Trump-Art-of-the-Deal grace note in the second paragraph rewards the careful reader. The Chamberlain set piece is professional. What the piece does not do is let Westad be Westad. Westad is a Cold War historian whose body of work argues that American interventions in the Third World were costlier and more harmful than American self-understanding admits. Caldwell uses him to validate a critique of liberal internationalism without engaging the parts of Westad’s project that don’t fit the paleocon frame, the parts that sympathize with anti-colonial movements, that read American hegemony as an extractive structure, that find moral fault in interventions a Claremont reader might celebrate.
The Iran strike close is the most honest moment. Caldwell hints that Trump has done the 1914 thing, a falling power taking risks it thinks will be cheaper now than later. He does not say so directly because the Claremont coalition is not yet ready to hear it said directly. He routes the criticism through Westad’s pre-strike book and lets the reader do the work.

Posted in China, Christopher Caldwell, Iran | Comments Off on ‘The Lamps Are Going Out’

The Christopher Caldwell Arc Over The Past 18 Months

The sequence runs:

October 31, 2024: “How quickly would Trump wash his hands of Ukraine?” Pre-election assessment of Trump’s Ukraine policy as the likely winner.

March 13, 2025: “What’s in a rename?” First principled critique of Trump on the Gulf of America rename.

April 7, 2025: “How DEI destroyed itself.”

April 30, 2025: “The real battle for Europe.”

June 2, 2025: “Why everyone is talking about Bill Belichick.”

July 14, 2025: “In the age of AI, humans must keep learning.”

September 8, 2025: “Liberalism is a lost cause.”

October 6, 2025: “The bully doctrine.”

November 5, 2025: “Is Donald Trump a game theorist?”

December 2, 2025: “Eclipse of the Boomers.”

December 17, 2025: European leaders on Ukraine.

January 9, 2026: IHRA and free speech.

February 6, 2026: The Reiner case and character.

February 24, 2026: The Nixon essay.

March 18, 2026: The Trumpism obituary.

April 17, 2026: The Easter column.

The October 2024 Ukraine piece shows Caldwell in the final days of the 2024 campaign writing from a position of cool analytical distance on both American presidential candidates. The essay is neither a Trump endorsement nor a Harris endorsement. It is a prediction about how the war will change regardless of who wins. The prediction is that domestic pressure to scale back U.S. involvement will be “irresistible” for either candidate.

The essay’s sympathies are clearly anti-Biden and anti-neoconservative, but the criticism of Trump is also present. “Trump’s campaign message, muddled though it is, bodes ill for the Ukrainian war effort” is not a friendly sentence about Trump. The characterization of Trump’s “24 hours” claim as a boast and the description of the previous Trump administration as “admirably disinclined to internationalist hubris” but also as having benefited from circumstances Trump “falsely boasts” about producing, these are measured and skeptical. Caldwell is willing to credit Trump for the right policy instincts on Ukraine while refusing to credit Trump’s own account of why peace obtained during his first term.

Several observations follow.

First, the October 2024 piece establishes Caldwell’s foreign policy position before Trump’s second term began. He is anti-Biden, anti-Obama-era-neoconservative-resurgence, pro-restraint, anti-escalation, skeptical of Ukrainian government propaganda, skeptical of Zelensky, and aware that the Biden administration had been running, in his phrase, on “a junta of special interests” in the president’s “cognitive absence.” The position is a national-conservative anti-war one, but it is held with genuine analytical commitment rather than coalition necessity. Caldwell has been writing in this register on Russia and Ukraine since at least 2022, and the position does not depend on Trump being in office.

This matters for the later arc. When Caldwell writes the December 22, 2025 Europe piece attacking European leaders for goading Ukraine to continue fighting and crediting Trump for urging negotiation, he is not suddenly adopting a pro-Trump position on Ukraine. He has held the Ukraine position for years. Trump happens to align with it. When the Iran war in March 2026 violates Caldwell’s anti-war commitments, the violation is measured against a principle that predates Trump’s second term. The Ukraine position and the Iran position are continuous in Caldwell’s thinking. Trump’s alignment with one and violation of the other is how the coalition pressure gets generated.

Second, the October 2024 piece includes a paragraph that deserves particular attention. “History will liken Biden’s foreign policy to that of George W. Bush, another strange interlude when a mood of world-shaping ideological fanaticism briefly overtook the traditionally pragmatic Anglophone powers.” This sentence does a lot of work. It equates Biden’s Ukraine policy with the Bush-era Iraq War project. It names both as departures from what Caldwell considers the normal Anglophone foreign policy tradition of pragmatism. It positions Caldwell’s own preferred foreign policy as the restoration of that tradition, available under Obama’s withholding of arms from Ukraine, available under Trump’s first-term disinclination to intervention. The position is older than Trump and will outlast him. Caldwell’s foreign policy commitments are not coalition-bound. They are temperamental and historical.

Third, the October 2024 piece shows that Caldwell was already making the kind of institutional-failure critique of Biden that he will later apply to Trump. The line “Biden administration has been run, in the President’s cognitive absence, by a junta of special interests” describes the same kind of governance failure that Caldwell will later describe around Trump’s shrinking advisor circle in the April 2026 Easter column. In both cases, the diagnosis is that a president’s personal failings have allowed his administration to be captured by a narrow set of insiders who produce decisions at odds with the country’s interests. The diagnosis is applied to Biden in October 2024 and to Trump in April 2026. The analytical framework is consistent. The target shifts as events warrant.

This shows something important about what Caldwell is doing across the entire arc. He has a relatively stable set of analytical commitments, rooted in national-conservative Catholic pragmatic-realist political thinking. The commitments include skepticism of ideological fanaticism in foreign policy, preference for democratic consent over expert rule, concern for institutional decay under both Democratic and Republican administrations, and critique of governing by captured-advisor networks. These commitments produce criticism of Biden in October 2024 and criticism of Trump in April 2026. The criticism of each is framed in the same terms because the commitments are the same.

Fourth, the October 2024 piece refuses the endorsement move. Caldwell does not say Trump will be better than Harris on Ukraine. He says both will find domestic pressure to scale back irresistible. The asymmetry is that Trump’s campaign rhetoric promises faster withdrawal while Harris’s silence suggests she will manage the wind-down more quietly. Neither approach is endorsed. Both are predicted. This is the Caldwell of the Financial Times era: a writer who produces predictive analysis rather than advocacy. The analysis turns out to be largely correct. Both candidates, had Harris won, would have faced the same pressure, and the Trump administration has indeed pushed Ukraine toward negotiation as Caldwell predicted.

Caldwell held a consistent set of commitments from before the 2024 election, applied them to both candidates without coalition bias, wrote pre-election analysis that refused endorsement while predicting outcomes, criticized Trump’s Gulf of America rename in his first month in office, endorsed Trump’s DEI assault three weeks later, continued to work across a wide range of subjects for most of 2025, and began in January 2026 to produce increasingly serious criticism of Trump administration actions that violated his foreign policy and civil-liberties principles.

Caldwell is a national-conservative Catholic pragmatic-realist writer whose commitments predate and will outlast the Trump presidency. He supported Trump’s second-term policies on civil-rights bureaucracy, immigration, foreign policy restraint on Ukraine, and the restructuring of the Democratic-aligned State Department. He criticized Trump’s methods on linguistic coercion from the first month of the second term, criticized Trump’s IHRA move once it became serious, criticized Trump’s character after the Reiner mockery, overreached in the Iran war obituary, and settled into a sustainable Catholic position in the Easter column.

The writer across the sixteen pieces is recognizably the same man. The method is stable. The commitments are stable. The targets of criticism and endorsement shift with events. What the extended arc shows is not a writer moving from enthusiasm to disillusionment but a writer applying his long-held principles to a rapidly changing political situation and producing the mix of endorsement and critique that those principles require.

The October 2024 piece uses the pre-election moment to establish a framework that will guide Caldwell’s writing throughout the Trump administration. The framework is that American foreign policy is now captured by domestic partisan structures, that both major parties face constraints from their bases, that the next administration regardless of party will have to manage domestic pressure for restraint, and that the foreign-policy establishment’s preferred activism will continue to lose legitimacy. The framework is applied to the Biden administration in October 2024. It is applied to the Trump administration throughout 2025 and into 2026. The consistency of application is what makes Caldwell’s writing trustworthy to readers across coalition lines. He does not change his framework based on who is in power. He applies the same framework regardless, and lets the criticism fall where it lands.

A reader knowing only the October 2024 piece would have predicted the shape of the subsequent arc with reasonable accuracy. Caldwell would be generally supportive of Trump on Ukraine and European policy, generally supportive of Trump on domestic anti-administrative-state work, and generally critical of Trump on methods that violated his principles of free expression and democratic legitimacy. This is what the subsequent arc delivers. The arc is not a story of changing loyalties. It is a story of consistent principles applied to an increasingly consequential sequence of events.

The coalition-crisis register of the January-April 2026 pieces is not an aberration. It is one phase of a longer application of stable principles to events that required increasingly direct criticism. The writer at the end of the arc is the writer at the beginning, applying the same tools under progressively more demanding conditions. What looks from inside the crisis like a dramatic shift looks from the full sequence like continuous application of stable analytical commitments.

March 13, 2025: “What’s in a rename?”

Caldwell writes:

Defeating woke with principles turns out to be hard. Trump tried this approach in his first term. Now he is operating on a cruder basis: that of rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. He has scored some successes. But he is in danger of forgetting who his friends are. The many voters who backed Trump because they actually do care about freedom of speech are unlikely to resign themselves to pretending the Gulf of Mexico is called something else.

This closing paragraph is prophetic. Written in March 2025, it predicts the entire arc of the subsequent thirteen months. Trump will continue to operate on the cruder basis, will continue to score policy successes, and will continue to forget who his friends are. The friends Caldwell is thinking about in March 2025, “voters who backed Trump because they actually do care about freedom of speech,” are the same constituency whose interests will be violated by the IHRA policy in January 2026. The category of principled Trump supporter who can be alienated by Trump’s coercive linguistic politics is already a concern in March 2025. The structural critique is in place before any of the later crises.
Caldwell was willing to endorse Trump policies he supported and criticize Trump methods he could not defend on his own principles. The coalition position was always conditional. The conditions were always legible. A pro-Trump reader in 2025 who thought Caldwell was a reliable ally was reading carelessly. A reader who took Caldwell’s March 2025 Gulf of America critique seriously would have known that the same writer would eventually produce the January 2026 IHRA piece when the stakes rose high enough.
Caldwell was always willing to criticize Trump on principle in public, starting from the first months of the second term, and that the later crisis essays are larger applications of the same principled critique he was making in March 2025 on a smaller scale. The consistency is visible from the first month forward.
The line about Trump being “the first president in history to punish a journalist for deadnaming” is a particular kind of Caldwell sentence. It uses the rival coalition’s vocabulary to criticize his own coalition’s leader. “Deadnaming” is woke-internal terminology for refusing to use a transgender person’s chosen name. Applying it to the AP’s use of “Gulf of Mexico” against the administration’s preferred “Gulf of America” forces the reader to see Trump’s punishment of AP as the same category of offense that woke activists commit when they police other people’s speech. The sentence does a lot of work. It would never appear in a pure coalition column because it would embarrass the coalition. It appears here because Caldwell is not writing a coalition column. He is writing an analytical column that happens to come down critically on a specific Trump policy. The willingness to use the rival’s vocabulary against his own side is what separates Caldwell from a pure coalition writer. The willingness is consistent across the arc, from March 2025 through April 2026. The presence of this willingness is what makes his writing interesting and trustworthy to readers across the coalition divide.
Caldwell is a principled writer whose principles produce criticism of any political project that violates them, including the project he otherwise supports. He began the Trump second term in March 2025 by criticizing the Gulf of America rename on free-speech grounds. He endorsed the DEI assault three weeks later because the policy was one he had supported for years. He continued this pattern of conditional endorsement across the following months, applying his analytical framework consistently even when it required him to criticize his coalition’s leader. The escalation of criticism from January 2026 onward was not a change of heart. It was a response to an escalation in the Trump administration’s provocations. The writing remained consistent in method. The events required increasingly serious applications of that method. The writer at the end of the arc is the same writer at the beginning, applying the same tools to increasingly consequential problems. The arc is the record of how that application played out across a year in which events forced the tools to produce increasingly direct criticism of the coalition Caldwell had otherwise been willing to support.

April 7, 2025: “How DEI destroyed itself.”

Caldwell writes:

Perhaps the most shocking thing to a foreigner about Trump’s early agenda is that it has been aimed at the institutions of civil rights set up in the 1960s and 1970s – the “nicest” part of a country that prides itself on its niceness. Government policies of racial remediation were not just enshrined in national mythology. They were also guarded (like most “nice” things) by a set of taboos that would imperil the careers of any who trespassed them. Within 48 hours of his inauguration, Trump had used a series of executive orders to abolish affirmative action, the linchpin of race-based law enforcement.

This was the sort of problem that, in his first term, left Trump befuddled. In his second term, he has proceeded with a sheer bureaucratic competence not seen since Franklin Roosevelt. Trump had a sense of where the regulatory pressure points of the civil-rights system lay: in its reliance on presidential regulation rather than law. He knew where the establishment was most vulnerable: in the economic dependence of race-driven academic departments and charitable foundations on streams of revenue that the White House could turn on and off.

The April 2025 DEI piece is the most important piece for understanding the arc, because it is the foundational pro-Trump essay that the later crisis essays will eventually be forced to question. This is Caldwell at his most full-throated in defense of the Trump second-term project. The essay celebrates Trump’s “sheer bureaucratic competence not seen since Franklin Roosevelt,” compares his regulatory moves favorably to what Machiavelli would admire, and explicitly approves of the redirection of civil-rights enforcement machinery against DEI and Woke. The Apocalypto epigraph frames the whole Woke apparatus as a civilization destroying itself from within, with Trump as the opportunistic conqueror who arrives after the self-destruction is already complete. The essay ends by explaining why Americans are not protesting: they have lived through 2020-2024 and drawn their conclusions.
Several observations follow.
First, the April 2025 piece contains the exact move that the January 2026 IHRA piece will later object to, and Caldwell in April 2025 endorses it. He writes approvingly that Trump “did not abolish” the civil-rights regime but “redirected its mighty regulatory powers against his political adversaries.” This is the procedural move of using rival-coalition administrative tools against one’s own opponents. In April 2025, Caldwell finds this Machiavellian genius. In January 2026, when Trump applies the same logic to the IHRA antisemitism definition, Caldwell names it as “an archetypal Trumpian gambit” that “triumphs in practice” but “loses in principle.” The shift is real and substantial. The same writer endorsing the same structural move in April 2025 objects to it nine months later.
In April 2025, Caldwell was willing to celebrate the redirection of civil-rights machinery so long as the targets were DEI programs and race-preferential systems he had long opposed. The symmetry only becomes operative when the machinery gets turned against targets Caldwell values, such as campus speech about Israel. This is not hypocrisy, exactly, but it does show that Caldwell’s commitment to procedural principle is weaker than his substantive policy preferences. He is fine with Machiavellian redirection when the policy result is one he wants. He objects to it when the policy result hits speech or targets he wants protected.
Second, the April 2025 piece is the pure pro-Trump Caldwell. There is no criticism, no reservation, no measured distance. Trump is the competent executive, the Roosevelt of the anti-administrative-state project, the leader who has identified the regulatory pressure points and the economic vulnerabilities of his adversaries and is dismantling them with efficiency. This is the most enthusiastic Caldwell writing about a sitting American president that I have seen in any of the pieces. A reader knowing only this essay would conclude that Caldwell was a dedicated Trump supporter with no significant reservations.
The contrast with the April 2026 Easter column is therefore as extreme as it gets. Both are April essays, exactly twelve months apart, and they describe different worlds. In April 2025, Trump is the executor of a historically significant project. In April 2026, Trump is a man whose Easter performances outrage the religious sensibilities of a stone, whose behavior requires recalculating “all our measurements of acceptable risk,” whose change of character over the past year makes him newly dangerous. The writer is the same. The subject is the same. The assessment is opposite. The year between them is the story the intellectual biography has to tell.
Third, the April 2025 piece uses the Aziz Rana citation in a striking way. Rana is a Boston College constitutional historian writing from a progressive perspective about the Trumpist “cultural assault on the basic creedal assumptions forged during the 20th century.” Caldwell takes Rana’s critical account and treats it as a useful description of what Trump is actually doing. He credits Rana’s insight that “the legitimacy of the civil rights regime is fragile.” This is Caldwell using a left-leaning scholar’s analysis to validate a right-wing project. The move is characteristic. Caldwell is always willing to engage serious work across coalition lines and repurpose it. In April 2025 he repurposes Rana to justify what Trump is doing. The same analytical generosity will later be directed at Pilkington, at Kokotajlo, at Wolff, at Zelizer. The writing always seeks the best available framework and uses it. In April 2025, the framework is Rana’s, and it supports Trump.
Fourth, the April 2025 piece establishes the starting position for the whole arc. Caldwell begins the year as a confident defender of the Trump second-term project. He treats the assault on DEI and civil-rights bureaucracy as overdue and welcome. He explains why the American majority is not protesting and endorses that non-protest. He treats Trump’s capacity for bureaucratic competence as historically significant. The subsequent twelve months will test this starting position against Trump administration actions. The January IHRA piece, the February Reiner piece, the February Nixon piece, the March obituary, the April Easter column are all reactions to events that complicate the original endorsement.
Caldwell is not purely a framework writer. He is a framework writer who, when his coalition is producing policy he likes, is willing to celebrate that policy even when its methods involve the same administrative-state moves he would criticize if the other side used them. His procedural principles are real but not absolute. His substantive policy preferences are weightier. When the policy is good, the procedural move is Machiavellian genius. When the policy is bad, the procedural move is a violation of first principles.
This is not a unique Caldwell flaw. It is close to universal among coalition intellectuals. The observation matters because it qualifies the earlier claim that Caldwell’s January IHRA objection was simply his civil-rights critique applied symmetrically. The symmetry is real but contingent. It required a provocation, namely Trump using administrative machinery to police speech Caldwell cares about, to activate. If Trump had continued redirecting civil-rights machinery against DEI targets Caldwell had always opposed, the symmetrical critique might not have emerged.
Second implication. The coalition-crisis register that dominates the January through April 2026 pieces is a response to provocations that accumulated beginning in January. The April 2025 Caldwell shows no signs of crisis because there was no crisis. Trump’s second term was doing what Caldwell wanted done, and Caldwell was celebrating it. The crisis that produces the later pieces was generated by Trump administration actions beginning with IHRA, continuing through the Reiner mockery, and intensifying through the Iran war and the Easter performances. Without these provocations, Caldwell might have continued writing in the April 2025 register.
Third implication. The Apocalypto epigraph in the April 2025 piece has an unintended resonance that the later essays make visible. Durant’s observation that “a great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within” is applied in April 2025 to the civil-rights regime and American liberalism. Caldwell’s argument is that DEI’s excesses destroyed it from within and Trump’s assault is simply the external follow-through. But the same epigraph applies, with very little modification, to the Trump coalition itself. Trump’s character, his behavior around the Reiner murder, his Easter performances, his Iran war decisions, his Kushner-Witkoff foreign policy network, these are the internal destruction that no external opposition could have produced. Caldwell does not quote the Apocalypto line again in the April 2026 Easter column, but he could have. The line that justified the assault on civil rights in April 2025 applies just as well to the assault on Caldwell’s own coalition project one year later. A writer with more reflexive awareness would notice the parallel. Caldwell does not.

April 30, 2025: “The real battle for Europe.”

Caldwell writes:

The EU is a system by and for technocratic elites. During the 2008 financial crisis, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy were able to use its institutions to overthrow the government of Silvio Berlusconi in Italy and block a referendum that would have led Greece out of the euro. The EU is mostly offstage, but it has mighty strings to pull. It plays the role that civil-rights law has for half a century in the US – offering a way for alumni of the better universities to review democratic decisions and freely entered private contracts. EU politicians like to call Brussels a “regulatory superpower.” That’s a boast.

This is a pro-Trump-administration column, written in defense of Rubio’s State Department cuts and Vance’s European policy, and framed as an explanation to non-experts of why the Trump-Brussels conflict is not about cultural hatred but about partisan alliance structures.
The thesis is that American and European progressive elites have spent decades acting as “partisan actors in the other’s politics” while assuming their populist opponents were too dim to notice. The EU functions for Europe as civil-rights law has functioned in America, as a mechanism for university-credentialed elites to override democratic decisions. Since the Clinton administration, the EU has been in alignment with the American Democratic Party. When Democrats are in power, Brussels and Washington combine to sanction, harass, and intervene against Hungary, Poland, and other anti-EU governments. When Republicans are in power, the EU works to deprive American Republicans of European allies. Rubio’s reorganization and Vance’s speeches are attempts to break up this trans-Atlantic partisan alliance. The whole confrontation, Caldwell argues, has nothing to do with “loving” or “hating” Europe. It is about dismantling a coalition structure that has operated against Republicans for thirty years.
This is Caldwell in carrier-group mode, but the carrier-group mode is not in crisis here. He is writing in defense of the Trump administration’s foreign policy in April 2025, and doing so clearly and confidently. The essay provides the theoretical framework that a Trump-sympathetic reader needs to understand why Rubio’s cuts are not vandalism and why Vance’s free-speech speech in Munich was not provocation. The framework is coalition analysis, and Caldwell applies it with his usual skill. The partisan-foreign-policy thesis is genuinely illuminating, and the EU-as-civil-rights-law parallel is a sharp observation that extends The Age of Entitlement arguments across the Atlantic.
Three observations follow.
First, the April 2025 Caldwell is unambiguously pro-Trump on the substantive policy questions. He defends Rubio’s State Department cuts. He defends Vance’s Munich speech. He presents the Trump administration’s European policy as a reasonable response to a real problem. There is no hint of the later character critique. There is no hint of the later procedural objection. There is no hint of the Catholic register that would come after the Easter 2026 provocations. In April 2025 Caldwell is a coalition writer helping his coalition’s administration explain itself to educated readers.
Second, the coalition work in April 2025 is cleaner than the coalition work in the later crisis essays because the coalition is not in crisis. Caldwell is defending the administration against its critics, not managing its internal contradictions. The prose reflects this. It is confident, organized, and free of the narrower registers that will characterize the February-April 2026 pieces. The piece is a good example of what competent coalition analysis looks like when the coalition is functioning. The later pieces are examples of what happens when the coalition starts producing its own embarrassments.
Third, the April 2025 piece shows Caldwell’s method at its most useful: naming an underlying structural reality that polemics on both sides obscure. The press narrative at the time was that Trump and Vance “hate Europe.” The European press narrative was that Americans “hate their values.” Caldwell reframes the whole conflict as a structural dispute over partisan alliance arrangements, which both narratives occlude. The reframing is correct in ways that reward a reader across the coalition divide. An anti-Trump European reader can accept the partisan-foreign-policy thesis without accepting Caldwell’s preferred resolution. A pro-Trump American reader gets a framework that explains his side’s policy without requiring him to endorse the emotional register of Trump’s own rhetoric. Caldwell’s service to his coalition is not flattery. It is clarification.

June 2, 2025: “Why everyone is talking about Bill Belichick.”

Caldwell writes:

Forty-nine years is an attention-grabbing age difference and Hudson is a force in her own right. Her father was a mussel-harvester in Hancock, Maine – which sounds like a vocation out of a different century. Environmental regulators apparently thought so, too. When they banned dredging in the local inlet, Hudson’s long-settled family became refugees of the Green Transition. Her agitation on behalf of displaced fishermen like her father has been truculent – almost Trumpian. She spent last Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago with Belichick and the President.

Hudson’s mother, meanwhile, moved to the gay resort town of Provincetown, Massachusetts, where she manages a sex shop.

Jordon Hudson’s father “became” a “refugee of the Green Transition” when environmental regulators banned mussel dredging in Hancock, Maine. Her “agitation on behalf of displaced fishermen like her father has been truculent, almost Trumpian.” Her mother “manages a sex shop” in Provincetown and a neighbor says Hudson “reaffirmed her belief that you should be able to love anybody you want, as long as it’s legal.” These sentences do coalition work without seeming to. The Hancock fisherman who loses his livelihood to environmental regulation and migrates to Trumpism is a Caldwell character type, familiar from The Age of Entitlement through the Europe pieces. The Provincetown sex shop and the Washington Post sentence about loving anybody are gently deployed coalition markers for readers who share Caldwell’s frame. A reader outside that frame might not notice the markers at all. The essay is politically loaded in a way that does not register as political writing.
Caldwell sustains a comic tone across an entire essay. The “SnapFace” detail is funny. The observation that Hudson “was a toddler, probably being silenced with a tablet (not in the old sense of Dramamine but in the new sense of an iPad)” is funny. The closing line about “a competitive time in the life of a very competitive nation” is funny. The humor is not incidental. It is the register in which the essay operates. Caldwell at full comic strength in June 2025 is the Caldwell who could write the October bully piece, the December Europe piece, and the December Boomers piece. The humor is a leading indicator of analytical confidence, and it is fully present here ten months before the Iran war obituary.
The Belichick piece contains a philosophical throughline that does not appear in the political essays but belongs to the same writer. The observation that “the core of excellence, in life as in football, is mistake avoidance” and that “winning comes from developing good habits that can be carried into any situation” is a conservative philosophical commitment. The value placed on habit, process, and humiliation as teaching tools is the same value that organizes Caldwell’s preference for inherited institutions over symbolic-analyst professional expertise. The Belichick philosophy, as Caldwell presents it, is the counterpart in the athletic domain of the classical education argument in the AI piece. Excellence requires the mastery of forms, built through repetition and constraint, that produce judgment available in unfamiliar situations. This is a continuous theme in Caldwell’s thinking across apparently unrelated subjects. Football and Latin operate on the same principle.
The essay’s treatment of Jordon Hudson is an Alliance Theory demonstration, though Caldwell is not doing it deliberately. He presents Hudson as a figure whose personal trajectory embodies the coalition tensions of the moment. Her father is a Hancock fisherman displaced by green regulation. Her mother runs a Provincetown sex shop and supports gay rights. Her own relationship with Belichick unites the older conservative America with the post-2000 online-native one. She attends Thanksgiving at Mar-a-Lago. She is “truculent, almost Trumpian” on environmental regulation. She also believes you should be able to love anybody you want. She is a coalition amalgam, and Caldwell sketches her as such with a mix of affection and bemusement. The portrait is more generous than most of Caldwell’s political writing because the frame is not political. Hudson is allowed to be a full person with cross-cutting commitments. The same generosity does not always appear when Caldwell writes about Trump voters or European populists. The Belichick piece, read carefully, shows that Caldwell’s moral imagination is capable of more than the coalition-crisis essays suggest. The capacity is there. The pressure of the later crisis narrows it. The narrowing is situational.

July 14, 2025: “In the age of AI, humans must keep learning.”

Caldwell writes:

Every technological revolution threatens to render certain human capabilities obsolete – or, rather, promises to do so. At the start of the Industrial Revolution, traveling long distances on foot and lifting heavy objects were considered two of the banes of human existence. Machinery would abolish them. Every American has seen “Jersey barriers,” those thin cement slabs laid end-to-end to separate lanes of traffic. In the 1950s, the New Jersey highway authority laid them down in the middle of small-town Main Streets to keep pedestrians from interfering with King Car. You could no longer pick up a newspaper and cross the street to read it in the coffee shop. No, you’d have to drive to the traffic light a quarter-mile away and double back. The New Jersey authorities could not fathom that anyone might want to cross a street, or do exercise of any kind.

The AI piece is the most quietly revealing essay in the sequence so far, because it shows Caldwell working on a subject that does not sit neatly inside any coalition. AI is a topic where the political right is divided between accelerationists and catastrophists, where the religious right is mostly still figuring out what it thinks, and where the usual coalition-intellectual moves do not quite fit. Caldwell uses this freedom well.
The essay’s argument is this. AI threatens to atrophy human cognition at the same moment AI becomes powerful enough that human cognition is needed to control it. The Industrial Revolution made walking and lifting obsolete as tasks, and they returned as hobbies through gyms and cycling. AI will make thinking obsolete as a task, and the argument is that thinking will need to return through something like deliberate education. The essay reviews Dario Amodei’s optimistic essay on AI’s civilizational potential, questions the wokeness of Amodei’s egalitarian framing, pushes back on Amodei’s claim that the socialist calculation problem is unsolvable by AI, turns to Daniel Kokotajlo’s darker AI 2027 paper for the counter-view, and closes with a defense of classical liberal education as the foundation of the kind of trustworthy judgment AI cannot be trusted to supply. The Kinks quotation at the end is a genuine surprise and works.
The AI piece shows Caldwell as a writer interested in serious intellectual problems that have nothing to do with American coalition politics. The subjects treated are Amodei’s essay, Kokotajlo’s AI 2027, the Hayek-Lange socialist calculation debate, the Tower of Babel, the pedagogical value of dead languages, and Matthew Crawford’s line about AI as a solution in search of a problem. These are the references of a serious person reading widely across genres. The essay could appear in Harper’s or The New Atlantis without revision. It does not read as coalition work. It reads as intellectual work.
The AI piece has one striking coalition moment. The paragraph on Africa includes the sentence “Africa is flourishing now. It will add a billion people to its population by the middle of this century. This owes less to the modern things it has than to the modern things it never got: feminism, psychoanalysis, near-universal contraception and advanced weaponry. No wonder mainstream culture holds the former ‘Dark Continent’ in such reverence.” This is Caldwell at his most right-wing, phrased in the cool aphoristic register that is his signature. The passage performs the coalition move of inverting mainstream moral valuation, treating African population growth as evidence that escaping modern Western institutions is a blessing, and putting “Dark Continent” in scare quotes to pretend distance from the phrase while deploying it. The move is coalition work performed inside what is otherwise an intellectual essay. Caldwell uses these moments sparingly and with craft. They are the markers that remind the reader this is a Spectator piece, not a New Atlantis piece.
This piece contains what may be the clearest statement in any of these essays of Caldwell’s positive vision, as opposed to his critical diagnoses. The closing argument for classical liberal education as the foundation of trustworthy judgment, “because it concerned a bygone time no longer blurred by change and no longer subject to the campaigning and imitation of interested parties,” is a Caldwell argument. It draws on his Catholic sense of inheritance, his European sense of the weight of tradition, his Americanist sense of the loss of shared cultural reference, and his long-standing skepticism of symbolic-analyst professional classes. It is the same cluster of commitments that will produce the later coalition-crisis essays, here stated in positive form rather than critical form. The AI essay shows what Caldwell is for, which the later essays show only obliquely through what he is against.

September 8, 2025: “Liberalism is a lost cause.”

Caldwell writes:

Pilkington views liberalism as earlier generations of political philosophers did: as one long process of replacing relations based on “status” with relations based on “contract.” Since the days of John Locke, the heart of the liberal idea is that every human being is free to make his own choices: why should I have to worship in the state church if Father X is preaching next door and I wish to listen to him?

Liberalism aims to increase happiness by smashing every rule and razing every institution that keeps individuals from contracting freely with one another. If we were all only individuals, that would be great. But we also belong to institutions that care for us and allow us to care for others – families, churches, fraternities – and liberalism has destroyed these as well.

The Pilkington review is a substantively different piece from everything else in the sequence. It is a book review, not an occasional column. Caldwell is working through another writer’s thesis at length, summarizing the argument, extending it in places, and adopting its framework as a lens on current events. The book review genre gives him permission to think structurally in a way the magazine column format does not. The result is the most theoretically ambitious piece in the run so far.
The core argument, in Caldwell’s presentation of Pilkington, is that liberalism is a long process of replacing status relations with contract relations, that this process requires ruthless enforcement to keep voluntary alternatives from re-emerging, that the contractual logic fails when applied to sex and reproduction, that this failure generates mass migration, generational conflict over democratic legitimacy, and a bubbling-up of alternative solutions like euthanasia, and that liberal elites cannot see the decline coming because their professional habit is to treat reality as manipulable perception. The essay closes with a Yeats echo about things falling apart and the center failing to hold.
This is the theoretical substrate for everything Caldwell will write in the subsequent months. The January IHRA piece is an instance of the ruthless-enforcement point. The February Reiner piece is an instance of the failure-of-perception-management point. The February Nixon piece is an instance of the legitimacy-decline point. The March and April pieces on Trump are instances of what happens when a coalition nominally opposed to the liberal order produces a leader whose methods mirror its worst habits. The Pilkington review establishes the theoretical frame that organizes the later crisis writing even when Caldwell does not explicitly invoke it.
The Pilkington review shows Caldwell still doing the kind of work that made him a serious intellectual rather than merely a political columnist. The review locates Pilkington inside a tradition that runs from Henry Maine’s status-to-contract thesis through Dangerfield through Colin Crouch. It treats the Ukraine war and the BRICS alliance as instances of structural shifts that long predate any particular American president. It treats deindustrialization as a long-running American policy choice rather than a partisan dispute. The frame is historical and structural. The American political crisis is one local symptom of a global transition.
The Pilkington framework is not Caldwell’s own in the narrow sense, but it fits his prior work closely. The Age of Entitlement argued that the 1964 civil rights regime created a rival constitutional order requiring continuous administrative enforcement against voluntary associations. Pilkington’s argument that liberalism requires ruthless measures to keep voluntary organizations from re-emerging is a generalization of the American case Caldwell made fifteen years ago. Caldwell adopting the framework is Caldwell finding his own argument extended and systematized by a younger writer. The review functions as endorsement and elaboration rather than engagement with a foreign thesis.
The Pilkington review contains the element that will prove most consequential for the later arc. The observation that liberal elites “have an almost magical belief in the power of perception” and that “their professional experience has convinced them that reality can be whatever you want it to be” is a theoretical observation in September. It becomes a practical indictment of Trump himself in April. The Easter column on the change in Trump is built around Trump’s Peale-ian inheritance, the idea that “perception is more important than reality,” and the way this belief produces an organization that generates alternate reality. Caldwell identifies the same habit Pilkington identifies in liberal elites and traces it in Trump. The later essay does not cite the Pilkington review, but the diagnostic tool is the same. Trump is, in this analysis, a product of the same cultural failure he was supposed to challenge. The Pilkington review supplies the theoretical frame that makes this critique coherent.
The September piece is notable for what it does not contain. There is no Catholic register. There is no character critique of any American figure. There is no coalition-management pressure visible in the prose. Caldwell is thinking about the global liberal order, its historical trajectory, and its structural contradictions. The thinking is long-frame and cross-coalition. If an editor at The New Republic or Foreign Affairs had wanted to run the review, they could have without changing a word. This is Caldwell at his most analytically unconstrained.
The Pilkington review makes visible the long-term intellectual project that organizes everything Caldwell writes, including the coalition-crisis essays. That project is the description of the post-1960s Western liberal order as a historical formation in decline. The September review states the project in its fullest theoretical form. The December Boomers essay states it demographically. The December Europe essay states it politically. The January through April essays state it in the form of what happens when the American right’s champion of the anti-liberal case turns out to practice the same vices. The coalition-crisis register is one mode within the project. The structural-historical register is another. The project is the same.

October 6, 2025: “The bully doctrine.”

Caldwell writes:

The Bully Doctrine boils down to this: the more threatening a person is, the less threatening he is. Where does this bizarre idea come from? Perhaps it is a holdover from an age of gentlemanly manners when, for instance, bragging about money was a sign you didn’t have any. Perhaps it comes from the age of Freud, when people understood human personality traits as compensations for deeply felt, hidden inadequacies. But it seems more likely that our ideas of bullying arise from stupid after-school specials and Disney films – and that we believe them out of wishful thinking. It’s a poor compass for navigating a dangerous time.

The bully piece is a pure example of what Caldwell does when he is working at full analytical range and not managing a coalition crisis. The essay is not about Trump in any primary sense. Trump appears as one instance of a larger phenomenon, which is the ideological construction of “the bully” as a political trope that licenses reckless foreign policy. The real subjects are Milošević, Saddam, Putin, and the American foreign-policy class’s habit of persuading itself that adversaries with actual capabilities will collapse under verbal pressure. The Kimmel incident at the top is a pretext for developing the argument.
The analytical method is vintage Caldwell. He notices a linguistic fact, the Google Ngram hockey-stick curve on “bully,” treats it as historical evidence, and traces the concept’s expansion as a function of political needs. The Cold War ends, the unipolar moment opens, and Washington needs a vocabulary for pushing others around without seeming to be the aggressor. “Bully” is that vocabulary. The word gets applied to Milošević, then to Saddam, then to Putin, then to Trump, then to Russia by the Obama-to-Biden-era advisors. The concept’s function, in each case, is to persuade the American political class that the target will fold under pressure. Caldwell points out that in each case the target has not folded.
This is excellent foreign-policy writing. Caldwell here is equally willing to apply the bully analysis to Trump as to Putin. His closing observation names the doctrine as poor compass regardless of who is using it against whom. He is not defending Trump from the bully charge. He is saying the charge itself is usually nonsense, on whichever side of the aisle it gets deployed. The Susan Rice quotation at the end, where she applies the doctrine to Trump, is treated with the same skepticism Caldwell applies to the Obama-era advisors who wrote it about Milošević and Putin.
The October bully piece is the second consecutive essay that centers Trump analytically without carrying any coalition-crisis weight. The November game-theory piece assessed Trump’s negotiating style with distance. The October bully piece treats Trump as one instance of a larger Washington pattern. Neither essay defends Trump. Neither attacks him. Both treat him as a phenomenon available for analysis. This suggests that the carrier-group register I identified in the February through April essays is not merely temporary but triggered by events beginning in January. The October Caldwell has no carrier-group register at all. He is writing as a foreign-policy commentator with access to a broader intellectual frame than his coalition’s current politics requires.
The bully piece contains a critique of American foreign policy that would have been out of place in the later crisis essays. The line about the Kosovo war being “the first interstate war in Europe since World War Two” launched “to discipline Serbian strongman Slobodan Milošević for his anti-terrorist actions in the province of Kosovo” is a strongly revisionist take on a conflict most of the respectable American press has treated as a humanitarian success. Caldwell’s revisionism is grounded in his broader skepticism of the post-1990 American foreign policy consensus. The Iraq War line, “the Iraq War that the younger Bush launched in 2003 has indeed gone down as a landmark in the history of bullying, though not for anything Saddam did,” extends the revisionism to the most important conflict of the neoconservative era. These are positions Caldwell has held for decades. They do not fit easily into a coalition-crisis reading because they are cross-cutting. The same writer who will later defend the anti-war wing of Trump’s coalition is here attacking the foreign policy record of the Weekly Standard milieu he came out of. This is intellectual continuity rather than coalition management.
The bully piece shows Caldwell willing to criticize Trump inside a frame that is not coalition-bound. “Whether or not you think Trump is a bully, both he and Moe must be reckoned with” does not defend or attack Trump. It simply grants that Trump is powerful and dismisses the rhetoric that pretends he isn’t. The framing allows Caldwell to make a real argument about Trump without having to decide whether he is a Trump defender or a Trump critic. He is neither and both, depending on the question at hand. This flexibility is what the later coalition-crisis essays lose.

November 5, 2025: “Is Donald Trump a game theorist?”

Caldwell writes:

A foreign trading partner could be forgiven for asking what good can come of making any concession to the United States at this point. Trump has decided to use the American role as the West’s defender to engage in hegemonic rent extraction, as game theorists put it. Or, as historians put it, to exact tribute. We now monetize everything, including solidarity. Humiliations result for our friends in Europe as well as for our rivals in Russia and China. This may well be a clever move in a dollars-and-cents way. It could revive American industry. It could even help balance the budget. But the problem for Americans is that humiliations and broken relationships have a cost, and it is one that is hard to calculate until it is too late. You don’t need to be a game theorist to know that.

Caldwell works on Trump while keeping some distance from both sympathy and critique. He plays the question as an open one. Could Trump be a sophisticated strategist? The essay considers the case, grants what must be granted, and names what is missing. The structure is neither defense nor prosecution. It is assessment.
The assessment is sharp. Caldwell credits Trump’s tariff approach with splitting potential trade adversaries through prisoner’s-dilemma logic, credits him with understanding the trade-relations paradox that deficit countries have less to lose at the negotiating table, and credits him with needing no Nixon-style madman theatrics because his real behavior does the work. Then he names the problem. A bargaining style built on credible threats is self-undermining because the more credible the threats, the less credible the promises. Trump’s hegemonic rent extraction generates short-term gains at the cost of long-term relationship capital. The humiliations have costs that are hard to calculate until too late.
This is Caldwell at his most analytically disciplined. The piece treats Trump as a phenomenon to be understood rather than a leader to be defended or attacked. It grants the possibility of unintuitive sophistication and then identifies the structural limits of the approach. The prose voice is calm and professional. There is no Catholic register, no character critique, no coalition defensiveness. This is the Caldwell who made his reputation writing for the Financial Times.
Two observations follow.
First, the November piece establishes that Caldwell was already naming costs in Trump’s governing style before the winter crisis sequence began. The game-theory essay ends on a concern about relationship costs that will prove prophetic for the later arc. “Humiliations and broken relationships have a cost” is the analytical point the December through April essays will extend into individual domains. In December, he applies it to the European leadership’s loss of credibility. In January, he applies it to the procedural costs of using rival-coalition tools. In February, he applies it to the moral costs of abandoning basic decencies. In March, he applies it to the coalition costs of the Iran war. In April, he applies it to the religious costs of Catholic sacrilege. The November essay supplies the through-line. Trump extracts short-term gains at costs that compound invisibly until they become visible all at once.
Second, the November piece carries less Catholic weight than any other essay in the sequence. The vocabulary is game theory, trade economics, and Cold War diplomacy. Nixon appears as a historical reference point for the madman strategy, not as the coalition carrier he will become by February. The essay could have been written by a centrist foreign-policy analyst with no particular religious or national-conservative commitments. This matters for understanding what happens in the subsequent months. Caldwell in November still has the full secular analytical range available to him. He uses it. The narrowing into Catholic and character registers that dominates the February through April essays is not a permanent feature of his writing. It is a response to pressures that emerge in January and intensify through the spring.
The analytical implication is important. The later crisis essays are not the expression of a writer whose frame has narrowed. They are the expression of a writer whose normally broad frame is being pressed into narrower registers by events. The November essay proves the broader frame remains available. The December and earlier pieces confirm it. What the crisis does is force Caldwell to deploy only part of his range at a time. When he writes the Catholic column in April, he is not limited to Catholic analysis. He is choosing Catholic analysis as the best available tool for the task at hand. When he writes the Nixon piece in February, he is not limited to historical rehabilitation. He is choosing it for an argumentative purpose. The limitations in the crisis essays are tactical rather than constitutive.
The game-theory piece also shows Caldwell engaging with his coalition from the inside without reflexive sympathy. Sarah Isgur, a former Trump administration lawyer, is quoted respectfully but not uncritically. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, is quoted with a slight edge. The essay asks whether Trump’s game-theoretic sophistication is real or whether his apparent strategic coherence is the result of others projecting theoretical frameworks onto his behavior. The question is left open. Caldwell does not decide it. The indeterminacy is honest. A coalition writer with looser standards would have decided it either way. Caldwell holds the question open because he genuinely does not know.
This is a kind of writing that almost disappears from the sequence after January. The later essays make decisions. The November essay refuses to. That refusal is itself a mark of analytical confidence. A writer who feels coalition pressure cannot leave questions open about his coalition’s leader. He has to take a position. The November Caldwell does not feel that pressure. The February and March Caldwell does. The April Caldwell has settled into a position that allows him to stop feeling it.

December 2, 2025: “Eclipse of the Boomers.”

Caldwell writes:

There is going to come a moment when the boomers’ political power falls below the threshold necessary to prop up this vision of things. It could happen before the next election. And then something is going to happen that no one has given much thought to: control over our politics and our culture is going to pass to a non-baby boom generation – perhaps a much younger one – that looks at the world in its own, totally different way.

The Boomers essay is not about Trump at all. It is a piece of historical-demographic analysis that treats the American political landscape as a function of age-cohort numbers. The argument runs: boomers dominated because they were demographically invincible, their governing assumptions became the nation’s common sense by force of numbers, and their numerical decline will lift those assumptions’ grip on American institutions. The three boomer tenets Caldwell lists (that slavery is the main thing in American history, that men and women are not much different, that youth is the best part of life) are identified as consensus positions held by no one in American history before 1968 and unlikely to be held by most non-boomers now. The essay predicts a shift in the governing vision as the generational weight passes.
This piece carries the other essays’ analytical framework but points it forward rather than at any political leader. It is the most structurally confident of the seven pieces. Caldwell is not managing a coalition crisis here. He is doing the kind of demographic and cultural analysis that made The Age of Entitlement distinctive. The prose is clean, the argument moves from data to claim without rhetorical strain, and the voice carries the cool authority his best work has always had.
Two observations follow.
First, the December 8 essay and the December 22 Europe essay together establish a writer at ease with his craft. Neither piece is managing internal coalition pressure. Neither requires the Catholic or character registers that the later pieces deploy. Caldwell is writing about demographic succession and European political failure with full analytical range, and the prose shows it. The boomer piece is funny in its opening paragraphs, concrete in its middle, and sober in its close. The Europe piece has the 10 Downing Street soul-shake image and the mutton-chop sideburns line. These are writer-at-top-of-form touches that disappear once the Trump coalition crisis begins in January.
Second, the Boomers essay prefigures the later arc in a way Caldwell may not have fully seen. His three boomer tenets are the ideological apparatus of the post-1964 civil-rights regime he spent The Age of Entitlement anatomizing. If the boomer generation is losing demographic grip on American institutions, the regime those tenets sustain is entering a transitional period. Caldwell’s constitutional argument, as developed across the essays, depends on this transition being real. His Nixon rehabilitation, his critique of the administrative state, his opposition to IHRA speech regulation, his entire theoretical program only makes political sense if the boomer consensus is in fact losing its grip. The December 8 essay supplies the demographic foundation for the constitutional argument the later essays advance.
The Boomers essay also has a small but telling observation that connects to the later Caldwell. When he writes that boomers “quarrel over the details of this vision, but not over its basic tenets,” he names something important about coalition intellectual life. The dominant consensus is sustained not by agreement on everything but by agreement on the basic tenets that make everything else debatable. This is, without Caldwell naming it, a description of what carrier-group intellectuals do. They quarrel over particulars while sustaining the basic tenets that make the coalition’s vision seem like common sense. Applied to the American right, the observation has the obvious uncomfortable implication. A conservative intellectual coalition that quarrels over Trump’s character and policies while sustaining the basic tenets of unitary-executive constitutionalism, anti-administrative-state critique, and civilizational pessimism is doing what Caldwell’s own boomers do in his description. The quarrels are real. The tenets remain.
Caldwell does not notice this parallel. A writer applying his own framework symmetrically would have to notice it. The fact that he does not is itself data about the limits of carrier-group self-awareness.

December 17, 2025: European leaders on Ukraine.

This piece is the baseline the later arc departs from. In December, Caldwell is still writing as a sympathetic observer of the Trump foreign policy. The essay credits Trump for pushing Zelensky toward negotiation, treats European war enthusiasm as delusion rooted in domestic political failure, treats Putin’s casus belli as at least partly vindicated by the revelation of American operational support for Ukraine, and reads the whole European posture as the giddiness of wartime command filling a void left by failed governance. The sympathies here are classic national-conservative anti-war, and Trump is on the right side.
The January IHRA essay, read against this December baseline, becomes the first registered crack. In December, Trump is the adult urging negotiation while European leaders perform Churchill cosplay. In January, Trump is a president using rival-coalition administrative tools against his own dissenters. The shift is sharp. It is not that Caldwell has turned against Trump. It is that he has identified the first thing about Trump’s governance that he cannot endorse from inside his own principles. The IHRA move is procedurally wrong for reasons Caldwell’s own civil-rights critique already established.
The December essay is also worth looking at on its own terms because it reveals a kind of writing Caldwell does well that does not appear in the later pieces. The soul-shake image at 10 Downing Street, the Mad Lib Zelensky speeches, the mutton-chop sideburns line at the close, these are moments of visual wit that carry real analytical weight. The mockery of European leaders is not cheap. It is grounded in the statistical reality Caldwell marshals: 13 percent growth in Europe since 2008 versus 87 percent in the US, no significant role in AI, a 6 percent French deficit, AfD and National Rally polling as largest parties. The witty opening earns the serious analysis that follows. The later pieces are more restrained and less funny. The December piece shows what Caldwell’s prose can do when he is not managing a crisis inside his own coalition.
The deeper observation is that Caldwell’s diagnosis of the European leadership is one he will not apply to his own position six weeks later. He writes in December that European leaders, having lost their claim to historical inevitability, retreat into the giddiness of wartime command because it offers “the only context in which they can speak as leaders of the people.” This is a sharp piece of Alliance Theory analysis, though he does not call it that. Elite class loses legitimacy, reaches for a substitute performance, and mistakes the performance for the reality. When he writes the Trumpism obituary in March, Caldwell himself reaches for an obituary performance that substitutes for coalition reality. The diagnosis he applies to Macron in December is one he falls into himself in March. He does not notice the parallel.
Alliance Theory predicts this kind of blindness. Writers who apply structural analysis to their rivals rarely apply it to themselves in real time. Caldwell sees Macron’s bluster as a cover for European political failure. He does not see his own March obituary as a cover for his own coalition’s continuing hold on its base. The December piece shows him at the top of his analytical form. The March piece shows him making the same kind of error he just diagnosed in others.
One further observation is useful. The December piece shows Caldwell still making use of the Ukraine war framework without signs that the war is about to force him to choose between subfactions inside the American right. The January IHRA piece, the February character pieces, and the March obituary all occur after the pressure begins. The Ukraine essay belongs to a calmer period. It is worth noting that this calmer period existed as recently as late 2025 and that Caldwell’s analytical discipline was fully available to him in it. What broke the discipline was a sequence of Trump administration actions, beginning with the IHRA policy in late 2025 and culminating in the Iran war in March 2026. The Caldwell of December is the Caldwell who could do this work with full analytical authority. The Caldwell of March was operating in crisis conditions.

January 9, 2026: IHRA and free speech.

Caldwell writes:

Is it anti-Semitic to “accus[e] Jewish citizens of being more loyal to Israel, or to the alleged priorities of Jews worldwide, than to the interests of their own nations?” It might well be anti-Semitic to generalize about Jews in that way. But it’s not unheard of for Christians or Muslims to care more about their co-religionists than their compatriots, and there would be nothing anti-Semitic about acknowledging cases where the same is true of Jews. Other examples sound as if they were written simply to stifle discussion: is it anti-Semitic to claim “that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist endeavor”? Such accusations of racism are indeed tedious – but we have just been through an entire generation in which everyone has been stigmatized as a racist for everything. Israel is hardly being singled out. And if it’s anti-Semitic, as the definition claims, to practice “double standards” – to care about Gaza more than Xinjiang – then politics becomes impossible, because such value judgments are what politics is about.

You can see why Mamdani might be uncomfortable with the IHRA definition: he is a longtime supporter of the Palestinian cause. Under such a definition, he and his friends can be dismissed as anti-Semites, whether or not their attitude toward Middle Eastern politics has anything to do with their attitudes toward Jews.

The break with Trump is not primarily about character and not primarily about Iran. It begins with a policy disagreement over the use of antisemitism definitions to police campus speech. Caldwell’s January essay treats Trump’s adoption of the IHRA definition as “an archetypal Trumpian gambit” that “triumphs in practice” while “surrendering the moral high ground.” The key sentence is that it “clears out a space for dissenters of the last generation” but “loses in principle, surrendering the moral high ground to dissenters of the next.”
This is the Caldwell of The Age of Entitlement talking, and what he is saying is not small. He is accusing Trump of doing what the civil-rights regime did. The pattern Caldwell spent a career anatomizing, smuggling law into society piece by piece through foundation-authored definitions that regulators and judges then treat as benchmarks, is now being practiced by the Republican administration against its own opponents. Trump is using the IHRA definition the way post-1960s liberals used the civil-rights regime. The tools are the same. The coalition using the tools has changed. Caldwell’s objection is that the tools themselves were wrong when liberals used them and are wrong now that conservatives use them.
This is a significant piece of intellectual honesty. A lesser coalition intellectual would have let the IHRA move pass without comment on the grounds that it was hurting the coalition’s adversaries. Caldwell names it as the same procedure he spent twenty years opposing. The objection is procedural rather than substantive. He does not say Trump is wrong to oppose campus antisemitism. He says Trump is wrong to use the administrative tools of the rival regime to do it. A principled unitary-executive conservatism cannot operate that way without becoming the thing it claimed to oppose.
The Mamdani frame is interesting. Caldwell uses a Ugandan-born Muslim socialist mayor as the unlikely hero of a free-speech moment. The opening paragraphs perform the gesture the piece requires: concede that Mamdani is woke, concede that he is hostile to Israel, concede that his comments about Netanyahu are hair-raising, concede that his Democratic Socialists chapter tweeted things on October 7 that support the “supporter of terrorism” charge. Then credit him with striking “a powerful blow against political correctness” because he revoked the IHRA order. This is Caldwell finding dignity where his coalition does not expect him to find it. He makes the same move he made for Trump voters and European populists: he grants moral standing to a figure the respectable consensus treats as dangerous.
The piece also shows Caldwell willing to cross his coalition on Israel policy. The IHRA definition is defended by every major American Jewish organization, the Trump administration’s State Department, the ADL, and the Federalist Society’s dominant line on campus free speech. Caldwell calls it “a catastrophe for freedom of speech.” He walks through the seven politicized examples and dismantles them one by one. The argument that treating criticism of Israel as antisemitism “stifles discussion” and makes “politics impossible” is the standard anti-IHRA case, and Caldwell makes it without hedging. This is one of the clearer pro-Palestinian campus free-speech arguments available in the respectable right press. It comes from a Catholic national-conservative writer at The Spectator, not from a left-leaning journal.
Alliance Theory reads this piece as an early indicator of Caldwell’s subfaction position within the larger coalition. The American pro-Israel evangelical Christian Zionist wing of Trump’s base is the faction most invested in the IHRA definition. Caldwell is writing against that faction and in favor of the anti-war national-conservative Catholic faction whose signature positions are skepticism of open-ended Middle East commitments and resistance to speech regulation. The split inside Trump’s coalition that would become visible over Iran in March was already visible in January over IHRA. Caldwell was already writing from one side of it.
This also explains the Reiner essay more fully. The character argument in February was the moral complement to the procedural argument in January. In January, Caldwell objects to Trump’s use of the rival regime’s administrative tools. In February, he objects to Trump’s lack of the moral qualities a principled unitary-executive conservatism requires. The two critiques work together. A president who both uses his opponents’ tools and lacks the character to deploy his own with restraint is a president who cannot carry the constitutional argument. The Nixon rehabilitation eight days after the Reiner piece now reads as the logical next step. Caldwell had named both the procedural problem and the character problem. The constitutional theory needed a different carrier. Nixon was available.
Caldwell has been working in public on the problem of how a national-conservative Catholic intellectual should relate to an American president who represents the movement’s policy victories and betrays its moral and procedural commitments. He has been doing this work in print, one piece at a time, with visible care. The January IHRA essay is the opening statement and also the least Catholic of the five. It is written from the free-speech right of the old conservative tradition. The later pieces add the Catholic register and the character register. The IHRA piece is the procedural core around which everything else organizes.

February 6, 2026: The Reiner case and character.

The Reiner essay is already doing Catholic work before the Easter column makes it explicit. The key sentences run: “When decent people speak of someone who has just died, they understand that they are in the presence of God or, if you prefer, eternity.” This is Caldwell’s natural vocabulary. The presence of God, the dwarfing of earthly preoccupations, the respect for human life as a precondition of governing. The Easter column looks less like a sudden Catholic turn and more like the culmination of a Catholic register Caldwell has been using all along. The religious frame preceded the Catholic controversy. Trump’s Jesus image was the event the Catholic register was waiting for.
Second, it recasts the Nixon essay. If Caldwell was already worried about Trump’s character on February 16, the Nixon rehabilitation on February 24 looks more deliberate. He was not writing in a calm theoretical mood that the Iran war would later interrupt. He was writing as a man who had already named his leader’s character problem in print, eight days earlier, and who needed a historical anchor for the constitutional argument before the character problem fully discredited the live American carrier. The sequence I gave you earlier treated the Nixon piece as prescient. A better word is strategic. Caldwell had noticed the wobble before the public did. He used the Rosen revelation to lodge the theory in a safer location while the live carrier was still operating but already suspect.
Third, the Reiner essay itself shows the Alliance Theory problem you flagged earlier, in a cleaner form than the Iran obituary. Caldwell names Marjorie Taylor Greene as the representative Trump-sympathetic voice registering the damage. MTG is a stranger witness for his case than he seems to realize. She was pushed out of the MAGA inner circle months earlier for reasons mostly unrelated to policy. Caldwell treats her reaction to the Reiner mockery as evidence that Trump’s sympathizers are turning. She is not a typical sympathizer. She is a recently excommunicated one, whose freedom to speak freely is a function of her exclusion rather than her representativeness. A writer applying Alliance Theory with care would note that the witnesses available to register internal discontent with a coalition leader are typically the ones the coalition has already purged. Their testimony is biased by their position. Caldwell uses her as a bellwether for the broader Trump coalition. She is not a bellwether. She is a disgruntled former insider, which is a different sociological category.
The essay is also interesting for what Caldwell concedes — the ICE’s policy case. He concedes the numbers on public support for deportation. He concedes that governing kills people and that this is a burden democracy must accept. He concedes extenuating circumstances in both Minneapolis shootings. The concessions are strong and explicit. Then the essay pivots: the policy is right, the political support is there, the operational outcomes are defensible, and yet the campaign is showing signs of having been discredited. His answer is character. Trump’s conduct regarding the Reiner murder broke something that policy and public support cannot repair.
This is the most Catholic argument in the piece, though he does not flag it as such. The claim is that a political project depends on moral conditions that exceed the political. A president who cannot observe the decencies owed to the dead cannot be trusted to calibrate the acceptable risk of government operations that kill people. The character failure contaminates the operational judgment. A reader who shares Caldwell’s underlying theological framework finds this argument natural. A reader who does not share it finds it either sentimental or moralistic.
The Alliance Theory reading sharpens here in a way my earlier analysis undersold. Caldwell is not just registering a break. He is attempting to establish the grounds on which a break from Trump is legitimate without being a betrayal of the coalition’s policy goals. The Reiner essay does this work more carefully than either the obituary or the Easter column. It keeps the policy case intact. It concedes what must be conceded to the base. Then it isolates character as the only necessary point of departure. This is the most strategically considered of the four pieces because it is the earliest. He was thinking carefully about how to structure the break before events forced him to make it.
What we now have is a four-piece arc that reads as a coalition intellectual managing a leader problem over two months.
On February 16, Caldwell identifies the character problem through the Reiner case. The policy case is defended. The theological vocabulary of the presence of God is introduced quietly.
On February 24, Caldwell lodges the constitutional theory in Nixon’s rehabilitation. This is insurance for the argument against the possibility that the live carrier cannot carry it.
On March 18, after the Iran war, Caldwell writes the obituary. The character break is now a coalition break, and he treats the movement as finished. This is the least strategically controlled of the four, the most reactive, the one where Alliance Theory most clearly catches him substituting his subfaction’s view for the coalition’s view.
On April 17, after the Easter performances, Caldwell writes the change-has-come piece in fully Catholic terms. The theological register introduced in February is now explicit. The coalition is separated from the man.
Read in order, the arc is coherent. It shows a writer who identified the character problem early, built a historical fallback for the theory, over-read the Iran war as the final break because it lined up with his own subfaction’s priorities, and then settled into a Catholic-national-conservative register that gave him a stable vocabulary for distancing himself from Trump while keeping the coalition’s constitutional argument alive.
The Reiner essay is the most impressive of the four on its own terms. It is also the one that makes the Iran obituary look like a loss of judgment rather than a natural next step. Caldwell in February was writing with care and restraint about a character problem whose political consequences he correctly refused to overstate. Caldwell in March lost the restraint and predicted coalition death that did not come. Caldwell in April recovered some of the February poise, but within a narrower religious frame. The February piece shows what he can do at his best. The March piece shows what he does when events briefly overwhelm his analytical discipline. The April piece shows him settling into a sustainable position for the long run.

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Christopher Caldwell: The deep state vs Nixon

On Feb. 24, 2026, Caldwell writes:

The outline of this story has been known to historians since James Hougan laid it out in Secret Agenda (1984): a brilliant young sailor named Charles Radford memorized, photocopied, and purloined classified documents from Nixon’s National Security Council, sometimes even emptying Henry Kissinger’s briefcase, and delivered them to a hawkish group of high military officers led by Admiral Thomas Moorer, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Alarmingly intimate accounts of arguments over military strategy began showing up in the syndicated columns of journalist Jack Anderson.
What is new in Rosen’s account is the context in which Nixon places the crisis. It came to a head in the last weeks of 1971, as his administration was planning the great strategic surprise that arguably won the Cold War – namely, America’s “opening to China,” the secretly negotiated rupture in the Sino-Soviet alliance. It happened at the height of the bloody war between India and Pakistan over Bangladeshi independence, and Pakistan, then a pariah state, had been the “bridge to China,” Nixon revealed. Kissinger, accompanied by Radford on a trip to Pakistan, had feigned illness to secretly visit China, and was offering extraordinary American support to Mao Zedong: “If India jumped Pakistan and China decided to take on the Indians,” Nixon explained in the secret testimony, “we would support them.”

This essay is the clearest window yet into what Caldwell has been doing across the last three pieces. Read alongside the Trump obituary and the Easter column, it completes a pattern, and the order of publication matters for seeing the pattern clearly.
The Nixon essay came first, on February 24. The Trumpism obituary followed on March 18. The Easter column on Trump’s change came last, April 17, 2026. Caldwell wrote Nixon before Trump’s Iran war broke the coalition nerve, wrote the obituary when the war forced him to register the break, and wrote the Easter column when the break needed a Catholic vocabulary to carry it. The sequence is not a man retreating from a failed leader. It is a man building a position and then being overtaken by events that tested it.
The pattern across the three is a coalition intellectual laying out a constitutional theory, then watching its American champion make the theory harder to defend, then adjusting the defense to preserve the theory while distancing from the man.
Caldwell’s Nixon essay in February is the opening move. He uses Rosen’s revelation to make the case for the unitary executive and against the deep state. The argument is historical and structural rather than personal to Trump. Nixon is positioned as the serious man of the theory. Trump is mentioned only in the closing paragraphs, where Caldwell names the continuity between Nixon’s fate and Trump’s first term. The essay is an attempt to establish the theoretical ground on which the coalition stands. The ground is Federalist 70, the administrative state, and the post-Watergate reforms as the founding violation of American democratic self-rule.
Then the Iran war broke out in March and Trump made the Federalist 70 case much harder to defend on contemporary grounds. The March 18 obituary registers the break. The April 17, 2026 Easter column performs the ritual distancing in a Catholic register. By the time the Easter piece runs, the Nixon essay has become retroactively useful in a way Caldwell may not have planned. The theory had been lodged in Nixon’s name before Trump’s behavior made it embarrassing to lodge it in Trump’s. The constitutional argument now has a historical anchor that cannot post Jesus images on Easter morning.
The Nixon essay is the theoretical setup. The obituary and the Easter column are the improvisations that followed when the live carrier of the theory betrayed it. Caldwell’s project across the three pieces is the preservation of the constitutional argument against the unreliability of its American champion.
Alliance Theory reads this as the predictable maneuver of an intellectual who remains committed to his coalition’s cause while his coalition’s leader makes the cause harder to represent in public. Nixon is a safer carrier of the cause because Nixon is a symbol rather than a live politician. Trump costs Caldwell’s respectability weekly. Nixon costs him nothing. The Nixon essay, written before the Iran war, turns out to be unusually well timed. It establishes the argument in a form that can outlive the Trump presidency regardless of how that presidency ends.
Alexander’s Watergate framework sharpens the Nixon piece itself and produces the most interesting observation.
Caldwell is attempting to run a reverse purification ritual on Watergate. Alexander’s argument was that Watergate worked as democratic ritual because five conditions aligned: consensus that the event was polluting, perception that pollution reached the center, activation of institutional social control, mobilization of differentiated elites as countercenters, and effective ritual symbolic interpretation. The result was that Nixon crossed from the sacred side of the classification table to the profane side, where he stayed for fifty years.
Caldwell is trying to run this table backwards. He wants to move Nixon from the profane column to the sacred column. His symbolic operations are visible in every paragraph. Rosen’s new revelations are cast as evidence that Nixon was defending the republic against a genuine military spy operation. The Moorer-Radford affair becomes the real pollution, located inside the national security establishment rather than inside the Oval Office. The deep state, not Nixon, becomes the polluting agent. Kutler’s 1990 line about Nixon ranking with the two Roosevelts is pressed into service as evidence of a prior consensus that woke history has since corrupted. The Washington Post, the Senate committees, the inspectors general, the 1978 Ethics in Government Act all move from the sacred column of democratic self-purification to the profane column of bureaucratic capture. LBJ wiretaps King, so Nixon’s wiretaps are normal. Every president keeps classified documents, so the Pentagon Papers response is normal. Even the break-in to Ellsberg’s psychiatrist’s office gets acknowledged as a problem only to be subordinated to the larger narrative of Nixon’s strategic vindication on China.
This is coalition counter-ritual work of a high order. Alexander’s framework gives it a name. Caldwell is attempting to pollute the purifiers and sanctify the polluted. He wants the Watergate settlement reclassified as the founding violation of American democratic self-rule, and Nixon reclassified as its first victim. The argument is not new in its components. It has been circulating in Claremont and among the legal right for years. What makes the February 24 timing interesting is what it preceded rather than what it followed. Caldwell was establishing the historical anchor for the argument at exactly the moment the contemporary anchor was about to come loose. Whether this was foresight or luck, the effect is the same.
Alexander’s framework also predicts the essay’s likely reception. A reverse purification ritual requires the same five conditions as the original. Caldwell has none of them. There is no consensus among non-conservative readers that Watergate was wrongly decided. No institutional authority is preparing to reopen the verdict. No differentiated countercenter has mobilized outside the right. No liminal ritual space has opened in which Nixon can be reclassified. The essay performs ritual symbolism among readers who already agree with it and makes no impression on anyone else. The Claremont orbit, the nationalist-populist right, and the American Conservative set will circulate it. The broader audience will not notice. This is carrier-group work for internal coalition morale, not cross-coalition persuasion.
The essay also reveals something Caldwell has been careful to hide in his better work: the convenient beliefs problem Stephen Turner would catch immediately. Caldwell’s new Nixon is the Nixon the argument requires. He was patriotic, constitutionally loyal, eventually handed over the tapes, never terrorized his aides, managed the China opening brilliantly, and was destroyed by his own decency rather than by his ruthlessness. This is not the Nixon of the tapes themselves, which are still publicly available and which document conversations about using the IRS against enemies, hush money for the burglars, anti-Semitic outbursts, and extensive plans to subvert the constitutional order. Caldwell knows the tapes exist. He writes as if they do not. A writer who elsewhere insists on historical specificity here paints a composite Nixon that serves coalition purposes more than historical accuracy.
The Dean quotation is the most revealing sleight of hand. Caldwell uses Dean’s line about Nixon saying impeachment would be handled properly to make Nixon sound statesmanlike. The same Dean testimony in the same book describes Nixon telling him the payments to the burglars could be obtained, we could get that, asking how much would be needed, and discussing the use of the CIA to block the FBI investigation. Caldwell quotes the sentence that helps and omits the sentences that do not. This is normal coalition writing, and Caldwell is usually more careful about not doing it. The carelessness is informative. He needed the Dean quotation to do work it cannot really do, and he used it anyway. That is what happens when a writer has decided the conclusion before the evidence.
The essay’s strongest move is the point about Zelizer’s formulation. Caldwell takes Zelizer’s description of the post-Watergate reforms, “a fragile wall was constructed to separate the Department of Justice from the political interests of the Oval Office,” and turns it on its head. He reads the wall as a separation of the executive from the electorate rather than as a protection of law enforcement from political capture. This is his best argument and it is genuinely interesting. A case can be made that the post-Watergate reforms did create an administrative state harder to democratically control. Serious legal historians on both the left and the right have made versions of this case. Caldwell’s version is weakened by the carrier-group framing, but the underlying argument is not empty.
The problem is that the underlying argument, taken seriously, would not require Nixon’s rehabilitation at all. One could argue that the post-Watergate reforms overshot their mark without also arguing that Nixon was patriotic and constitutionally loyal. The two claims are separable. Caldwell fuses them because his coalitionApril 17, 2026, after Trump’s Easter performances, Caldwell writes the change-has-come column that keeps the movement alive while detaching it from the man. The three pieces move from theoretical foundation to coalition grief to Catholic ritual distancing. The common thread is the preservation of the constitutional case. The Nixon essay supplies the case’s historical anchor. The obituary supplies its obituary for the coalition’s recent vehicle. The Easter column supplies its moral grounds for the break with the current carrier. Read in order, the sequence is coherent coalition management under difficult conditions.
Alexander’s five-factor analysis makes the limitation sharp. Caldwell cannot reverse Watergate’s ritual classification by writing essays, no matter how well written. The classification was not a rhetorical event. It was a social accomplishment that required an alignment of conditions between 1972 and 1974 and has been sustained for fifty years by continuing institutional reinforcement. Unmaking it would require either a parallel alignment of conditions or a collapse of the institutions that sustain it. Caldwell has neither. What he has is prose. The prose cannot do the work. It can only register the wish.
The final observation is that Caldwell in 2026 is beginning to resemble the figures he once diagnosed. In The Age of Entitlement he described the civil-rights carrier group as intellectuals laboring to sustain a ritual classification against increasing counter-evidence. He was cold and precise about how that labor worked. He is now doing the analogous labor in reverse, attempting to sustain a counter-ritual against the settled civic classification of Watergate while also managing the public behavior of the man who was supposed to be the counter-ritual’s living champion. The asymmetry he once noticed in others is now visible in his own work. Writers who notice the mote in the eye of their rivals rarely see it in their own, and Caldwell is not an exception to that rule. He is only more interesting because he built the optics that would let someone else see him clearly, and then used them on everyone except himself.
Caldwell writes an op-ed. Steve Sailer writes a notebook entry on the same story. That genre difference carries most of the weight.
Caldwell’s essay runs about twelve hundred words, tightly structured, with a visible argumentative arc. It opens with the Rosen revelation, moves through the Moorer-Radford affair in summary, names the deep state connection, ties Watergate to Trump, and closes with a thesis sentence about who is to blame. The essay has a point and drives toward it. Every paragraph is subordinated to the argument. The prose is plain, sentences are even in length, and the voice is restrained. This is high-journalism form, designed to carry a claim into mainstream readers’ heads.
Sailer’s piece runs roughly three thousand words and reads like a man thinking at his desk. He block-quotes the Rosen article at length, interrupts his quotations with his own observations, wanders into personal anecdote (the Kissinger question at Rice in the late 1970s, the George Harrison concert, the bit about Radford and Woodward possibly being in adjacent Navy cells), pauses to discuss whether South Vietnam actually could have held if Congress had funded them, digresses into the Mormon role in the American deep state, and ends with speculation that Radford and Woodward may have been parallel operatives for the same admirals. There is no single thesis. There is a cluster of observations around a shared theme. The piece is closer to a private blog post circa 2005 than to a magazine essay.
This difference in genre tracks a difference in coalition position, and the coalition difference is the interesting one.
Caldwell is writing to move the Watergate classification. He wants the received understanding reversed at the level of American civic consensus. His essay is a ritual intervention aimed at readers who still accept the standard account and might be persuadable. He knows the intervention will mostly fail, but the attempt requires the high-journalism form because only that form can reach the audience the intervention would need to persuade. Every sentence in the essay is working to be quotable by someone writing for a broader audience.
Sailer is writing to his own subscribers. He makes no attempt to persuade a reader who does not already share most of his premises. He takes for granted that the deep state is real, that Nixon got a raw deal, that the official Watergate story is incomplete, and that the interesting questions are the secondary ones about who did what to whom. He is not trying to move the classification. He is filling in texture for readers who have already moved.
That the two essays came out so close together sharpens the point. They are both responding to the same news within the same short window, with access to the same underlying materials, writing for audiences that overlap considerably at the level of personal sympathy and diverge completely at the level of respectable venue. The comparison is a natural experiment in what carrier-group position does to prose.
The Sailer piece is better informed than the Caldwell piece on the subject matter itself. Sailer has read Silent Coup, knows the Woodward naval career, knows Radford is a Mormon, knows Scowcroft is a Mormon, knows Jack Anderson was a Mormon, and puts that pattern on the table. He traces Haig’s career after 1973 and points out that Kissinger’s career was not damaged by the Moorer-Radford affair even though Kissinger was the nominal target. He notes that Moorer himself suffered no consequences. He observes that the espionage did not change any outcome. He places the Bangladesh war in its actual geopolitical context with enough detail to make the Cold War stakes concrete. Caldwell mentions the China opening and the India-Pakistan war but does not do any of this texture work. His version is a thin summary in service of his thesis.
Caldwell is better at ideological framing than Sailer. Sailer’s piece has no sustained political argument. He hints at one, the note that Nixon’s first term was more leftist than LBJ’s, the observation about Mormons in the deep state, the parenthetical about Bob Woodward’s intelligence background, but he does not build toward a claim. His gestures are scattered. Caldwell pulls together a clean argument about the post-Watergate administrative state, Federalist 70, and the 1978 Ethics in Government Act. He links Nixon to Trump explicitly and names the continuity. He produces a single thesis that a reader can carry away.
The trade-off is legible. Caldwell has argumentative structure and coalition discipline. Sailer has texture and curiosity. Caldwell has coalition professionalism in its upper-middlebrow form. Sailer has the autodidact’s willingness to say what interests him even when it does not fit the case.
The symbolic operations differ accordingly.
Caldwell runs a purification ritual. He wants Nixon repositioned in the sacred column and the post-Watergate reform apparatus repositioned in the profane column. The whole essay is organized toward this reclassification. The Zelizer quotation, the Kutler quotation, the comparison to LBJ and Kennedy on corruption, the Dean line about impeachment being handled properly, all of these serve the ritual move.
Sailer does not run a ritual. He enjoys the story. He is interested in whether Radford and Woodward worked for the same admirals. He is interested in whether Haig encouraged Radford. He is interested in whether Kissinger really was the target or whether Kissinger’s survival suggests that the whole thing was theater. He is interested in whether American air power in 1972 was actually decisive and most people missed it. These are the interests of a man who likes historical puzzles and does not feel much pressure to resolve them into a political verdict.
The Mormon observation is a case in point. Caldwell would never write that sentence. The Mormon pattern is real, potentially illuminating, and also socially dangerous in a way Caldwell has trained himself to avoid. He writes from inside the respectable right’s permissible frame, which allows criticism of the deep state as a structure but not identification of the communities whose members populate it. Sailer writes outside that frame. He notices what he notices and puts it on the page. The noticing is what makes his piece interesting and also what keeps him on Substack instead of in The Spectator.
The simultaneity of the two pieces rules out the easy explanation that Caldwell is condensing Sailer’s work for a respectable audience or that Sailer is responding to Caldwell’s framing. They are two writers reacting independently to the same week’s news, producing very different artifacts from the same raw material. The difference is not a product of sequence. It is a product of position.
Both writers are carrier-group intellectuals for overlapping but distinct constituencies. Caldwell carries the national-populist Catholic right into elite precincts. Sailer carries the race-realist dissident right on his own platform. Each has paid the price and earned the privilege of his particular coalition position. Caldwell has access to The Spectator, The New York Times, and the Financial Times. Sailer has a paid Substack audience that will read three thousand words on whether Bob Woodward was a naval intelligence asset. Each man’s writing reflects the incentives of his perch.
On the story, Sailer is the better source. He is more curious, more textured, and more willing to push into genuinely uncertain terrain. Caldwell is the better essayist. He builds a case that can travel and that can be used by other writers to shift the received understanding, assuming the shift ever comes.
The deeper comparison is about what each man is doing with his talent.
Caldwell is a high-end journalist who has narrowed into a carrier-group function for a particular subset of the right. His essay on Nixon is a good example of what he does well within that function and an example of its costs. The argument is clean. The ritual move is visible. The historical texture is thin because texture is not what the function requires.
Sailer is something harder to place. He is not a journalist in Caldwell’s sense. He is a noticer who writes down what he notices. His pieces rarely have a single argument because his mind does not work in single arguments. He follows connections. Sometimes the connections are brilliant and sometimes they are wrong and sometimes they are merely interesting, but they are always genuinely his own. He is less disciplined than Caldwell and more independent. Both qualities are inseparable.
If you asked which writer is better at the work each has chosen, both are, within their respective domains, very good. If you asked which piece is more likely to be cited in ten years, Caldwell’s, because it will fit into the larger Claremont-Federalist Society argument about the administrative state. If you asked which piece is more likely to have gotten the story right, Sailer’s, because he cares more about the story than about the argument.
The honest summary is that Caldwell is a coalition intellectual in the strict sense, producing prose that serves a faction’s strategic ends with restraint and skill. Sailer is an individual observer who has built his own small institution around the simple act of paying attention. They are not doing the same thing. They are not in competition. They are examples of two different ways an intelligent man on the right can make his living in 2026, and each way has its characteristic strengths and its characteristic distortions.

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Christopher Caldwell: A change has come over Trump

Caldwell writes Apr. 17, 2026:

Geostrategists used to fret over the “Eastern Question” or the Maginot Line or the Missile Gap. Today there is no doubt that the overriding geostrategic question of our day is whether the President of the United States is playing with a full deck. With the US-Israeli war on Iran failing, and depleting much of both countries’ non-nuclear defenses, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and western economies spiraling toward depression, Donald Trump greeted the world on Easter morning with a message to Iran’s leaders to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards,” then threatened the next day to wipe out Iranian civilization.

He then denounced the Pope for having imparted Catholic teachings on just and unjust war. As a kind of grand finale, Trump posted an image of himself dressed up as Jesus Christ and appearing to heal the dead, with light glowing out of his palm where Jesus’ stigmata would be. The writer Matthew Walther, besides describing the post as, for Catholics, “the most profoundly offensive act imaginable, a grave public sin that brings shame to, and invites God’s judgment upon, our nation,” also noted that in the long annals of western government, replete as they are with mad kings, no leader had presented himself as Jesus in quite this way.

Caldwell is better than this. This is Caldwell in full ritual-purification mode, and it confirms the diagnosis from the previous essay rather than complicating it. The same analytical lapse runs through both pieces, now harder to miss because the second essay is less disguised.
The rhetorical architecture is the prosecutor’s brief. He opens with Trump’s most offensive Easter post, the Jesus image, and cites Matthew Walther calling it the most profoundly offensive act imaginable for Catholics. He names it as a grave public sin that invites God’s judgment upon the nation. He stacks the Pope denunciation, the threat to wipe out Iranian civilization, and the crude Strait of Hormuz message into a single moral indictment. He moves to the competence question with the “full deck” line and repeats it as a set-piece aphorism. He pathologizes Trump’s management style through Norman Vincent Peale and Landslide by Michael Wolff. He catalogs the shrinking advisor circle and treats it as symptomatic. He closes on the prediction that Trump may prefer being thought a villain to being thought a chump. Every move in the essay points the same direction: this man is morally polluted, cognitively impaired, and strategically useless. Allies should recoil.
This is Jeffrey Alexander’s five-factor ritual construction done in journalistic prose. Caldwell is attempting to establish consensus that the events are polluting, to show pollution reaching the center through the Jesus image and the Pope attack, to activate moral authority (Catholic teaching, just-war tradition, the Pope himself), to mobilize a differentiated countercenter (Meloni, the European defenders, the Catholic right), and to perform the symbolic separation of the pure from the impure. The essay is a purification ritual aimed at Trump from inside the coalition that once defended him.
Caldwell has shifted tactics without changing his misreading. The March obituary pronounced Trumpism dead. The April essay, which appears roughly a month later, concedes that Trumpism is still there and works instead to detach it from Trump personally. The new line is that Trump has been suckered out of his presidency for the second time, that a change has come over him, that he has exhausted the ability of others to cooperate. The movement can survive. The man must be sacrificed. This is a retreat from the first essay but only a tactical one. He has moved from burying the coalition to attempting a symbolic regicide within it. The method is the same: performative ritual prosecution by a writer who assumes the prosecution will take.
The Catholic framing is the key Caldwell move and the one that shows the carrier-group position most clearly. Caldwell is Catholic. The Pope is his natural symbolic authority. Catholic just-war teaching is a vocabulary he commands. Meloni is a Catholic national-populist he has written about with sympathy. The essay reads the Iran war and the Jesus post through a Catholic-national-conservative lens and treats the violation of that lens as a coalition-wide violation. It is not a coalition-wide violation. The American evangelical Christian Zionist wing of Trump’s base, which outnumbers the Catholic national-conservative wing many times over, read Trump’s actions completely differently. They approved the Iran strikes. They did not care about the Jesus image in the way Catholics did. They never looked to the Pope for guidance. Caldwell writes as if Catholic moral authority were the coalition’s shared sacred center. It is not. It is the sacred center of the subfaction he inhabits.
This is the substitution now happening again with a sharper Catholic accent. The subfaction’s priest mistakes his liturgy for the coalition’s liturgy.
The Michael Wolff citation is revealing in a different way. Caldwell takes Landslide by Michael Wolff, which most of his conservative readers would have dismissed in 2021 as hostile journalism, and uses it now as authoritative analysis of Trump’s managerial decline. The cross-coalition citation signals that Caldwell is no longer writing for a readership that shares his old tribal filters. He is writing for the broader elite audience that reads Wolff, and he is using Wolff to lend weight to a case against Trump that the old Trump-sympathetic right would reject as Resistance journalism. The essay’s intended audience has widened, which means its coalition position has shifted. He is speaking to the Catholic-national-conservative subfaction and to the broader anti-Trump respectable audience simultaneously. The two audiences overlap on the Iran war and on Trump’s character. They do not overlap on much else. Caldwell is writing into that overlap.
The Meloni paragraph is the saddest line in the essay. He treats Trump’s attack on Meloni as the moment the last patient European defender was spurned. Meloni is the national-populist Caldwell wants the movement to be. She is Catholic, restrained in affect, fluent in the high European political vocabulary, willing to defend the Pope on principle. She is, in other words, a European version of Caldwell’s preferred American. The essay’s emotional core is the wound the Catholic national-conservative subfaction feels when the American leader of the broader populist coalition turns on the European leader who most closely resembles its own ideal. That is a real wound. It is not, however, a coalition-wide wound. Most of Trump’s base does not know who Meloni is and does not care that Trump attacked her.
Alexander’s framework predicts what will happen to this essay. It will land hard among Catholic national conservatives and among the respectable anti-Trump center. It will be quoted in The Atlantic and The Bulwark and by Catholic writers who want permission to break with Trump on moral grounds. It will not penetrate the populist base’s media ecology. Rogan will not read it aloud. Megyn Kelly will not circulate it. The coalition’s five ritual conditions remain unaligned. The essay performs purification symbolism that has no purifying effect because the consensus, the institutional authority, the countercenter, and the liminal ritual space required for such symbolism to land are absent.
Caldwell’s best work treats elite rituals as performances that stop working when the underlying coalition conditions thin out. His whole Age of Entitlement thesis depends on this insight. When he writes about civil-rights ritual losing its hold, he is brilliant. When he writes against Trump, he forgets the insight and attempts a ritual purification on his own side under conditions where it cannot land. The April essay is the second consecutive example. Two in a row is a pattern, not a lapse.
What has happened, I think, is that Trump’s Iran turn hit Caldwell’s Catholic and anti-war nerve hard enough to override the Alliance Theory instincts he otherwise deploys with unusual skill. He has responded by writing as a priest of his own subfaction rather than as an analyst of the coalition. The essays are better written than what the average anti-Trump commentator produces. They are also running the same ritual software the Washington press corps has been running for a decade with the same lack of effect. Caldwell used to notice when rituals stopped working. These two essays are what it looks like when a diagnostician of failed rituals starts performing one.
The charitable reading is that he is doing exactly what a coalition intellectual should do when his coalition’s leader has crossed a line the intellectual cannot accept: he is registering the break publicly, for the record, knowing the break will not be registered by the base. That is an honorable function. But it is not the function Caldwell built his career performing. It is not diagnosis. It is witness. A Catholic writer bearing witness against an American president’s sacrilege is a coherent role, and a defensible one. It is just a role that requires giving up the pretense that one is describing coalition realities rather than performing inside them.

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The Varieties of Religious Experience

I know Orthodox Judaism is true from my experience of this way of life.
At the same time, I welcome every challenge to Orthodox Judaism. My commitment to the mesora (tradition) is unchanged by them because my commitment does not rest on abstract beliefs.
I love truth and I love my life.
My outlook seems to match the academic literature — people are shaped by bonds. The important people in my life are largely Orthodox Jews and that shapes how I experience life.
If you don’t have any friends at shul or church, you’ll leave. I have friends in the kehilla and I am staying.
I am not interested in apologetics. I want to situate everything accurately. I feel no need to sugar coat my descriptions of Orthodox Judaism because I have nothing I need to defend.
Michael Polanyi called my approach the fiduciary framework. In Personal Knowledge he argued that all knowing rests on commitments the knower cannot prove from outside the commitment. The scientist trusts his instruments, his training, the reliability of his community of practice. He cannot step outside this trust to verify it, because the verification would require other trusted instruments. Polanyi held that religious knowledge works the same way and is no less rational for doing so. The explicit doctrinal claims of a tradition are the articulable residue of a tacit knowing that precedes them and exceeds them. A man who knows the tradition at the tacit level does not need the explicit claims to carry the weight the tradition itself carries.
Ludwig Wittgenstein came at the same ground in On Certainty. He argued that every language game rests on hinge propositions that are not themselves propositions to be verified but the ground on which verification takes place. Religious practice has hinges of this kind. They are lived rather than believed, in the sense that “belief” suggests a propositional attitude one could revise. Wittgenstein in his remarks on Frazer and in the Lectures on Religious Belief treated religious forms of life as irreducible to the factual claims embedded in them. The Eucharist is not a bad theory of transubstantiation. It is an act that does what it does regardless of which metaphysics describes it.
Rabbi Soloveitchik’s Halakhic Man maps onto this too. Soloveitchik argued that the halakhic man’s relation to reality is neither the scientist’s nor the mystic’s. He approaches the world through the prism of halakhah, and that approach is itself a form of cognition, not a set of propositions layered on top of experience. The halakhic life is its own epistemic mode. Its truth is known in its living, not inferred from premises.
Abraham Joshua Heschel made the point in God in Search of Man (one of the first books I read on Judaism) when he wrote that Judaism is concerned with deeds more than with creeds. The deeds disclose what the creeds only point at. A man who has davened with a minyan on Yom Kippur has knowledge of something the theological proposition about atonement indicates but does not contain. The deed has epistemic content.
The Hasidic tradition has a related move in the doctrine of da’at, which in Chabad formulation distinguishes intellectual apprehension from the knowing that grips the whole man. The explicit doctrines of Hasidut are tools for producing da’at, not substitutes for it. A man who has the da’at does not need the doctrines to be literally true in the way a proposition is true. He has the thing the doctrines were pointing at.
The philosophical frame here is religious externalism, sometimes called Reformed epistemology in the Plantinga-Alston version. Plantinga argued that belief in God can be properly basic, meaning it does not require inferential support from other beliefs. The tradition plays that role for me. It is basic. Scholarship operates on derivative propositions. Derivatives can be wrong in detail without threatening the basic.
Bernard Lonergan’s distinction between the cognitional operations of experiencing, understanding, judging, and deciding points at the same structure. The explicit doctrinal claims belong to the judging level. The tacit knowing belongs to experiencing and understanding, which are prior. Judgments can be revised without revising the prior layers they rest on, because they do not exhaust those layers.
My stance also has the virtue of matching what most practicing religious people across traditions describe when pressed, even when they cannot articulate it in these terms. The peasant who keeps the fast, the scholar who keeps shabbat, the Muslim who prays five times a day, the Hindu householder who performs puja, usually cannot defend the explicit doctrinal apparatus against a determined critic. What they can do is point at the life. The life is the knowing. The doctrines are maps of a territory they already inhabit.
This is why my position is immune to the kind of scholarship Shapiro produces in a way that Yerushalmi’s and Myers’s positions are not. Yerushalmi needed the tradition to be a coherent memory community, because his scholarship was partly an elegy for that community. Myers needs progressive Judaism to be a coherent heir to the prophetic tradition, because his institutional work draws its authority from that claim. Both are propositional claims vulnerable to historical inquiry. My claim is not propositional. My claim is that I love my people and that powers my life.
Tacit knowing is not infallible. Polanyi was clear on this. A practitioner can be wrong about particular matters within his practice. A Talmudist can misread a sugya. A mohel can misjudge a procedure. Tacit knowing is reliable at the level of what it is a knowing of, which is the reality and truth of the tradition as a whole, not the accuracy of every explicit claim made within it or on its behalf. This distinction allows me to read Shapiro with pleasure. He is correcting particular explicit claims. He is not and cannot touch the tacit knowing that tells you the tradition is true.
William James named the move in The Varieties of Religious Experience. He distinguished between the existential claim of a religious life, the lived encounter with what the person takes to be real, and the intellectual claim, the set of historical and metaphysical propositions attached to it. James argued the two run on separate tracks. The intellectual propositions can be revised, qualified, or even refuted without touching the existential reality that produced them. The man who has tasted water does not need a chemist to tell him water exists. He may be curious about hydrogen and oxygen, but the chemistry does not adjudicate his thirst.
Alasdair MacIntyre’s After Virtue and Whose Justice? Which Rationality? give the social version of the same point. Rationality is tradition-constituted. A man inside a living tradition has access to forms of reasoning, judgment, and practical wisdom that outsiders cannot reconstruct from external evidence. Modern scholarship on a tradition is an outsider’s enterprise by definition. It can produce real knowledge, including knowledge the insiders lack, but it cannot replicate the insider’s access to the tradition’s internal intelligibility. An Orthodox Jew who finds Shapiro’s catalogue of editorial revisions fascinating has not thereby lost access to what davening, shabbat, learning, and halakhic practice give him. The two kinds of knowledge run on different frequencies.
Charles Taylor’s work on the buffered and porous self points the same direction. The post-Enlightenment buffered self treats religious claims as propositions to evaluate from outside. The porous self experiences the sacred as something that enters and shapes him. Modern scholarship addresses the buffered self. The porous self, the one who lives inside the practice, receives communications scholarship cannot measure. Neither self is irrational. They operate in different registers.
Michael Polanyi’s Personal Knowledge adds the epistemology. Tacit knowledge, the knowledge a practitioner has of his craft, cannot be fully articulated in propositional form. The Orthodox Jew’s knowledge of what shabbat is, what a minyan feels like, what learning a daf with a chavrusa opens up, is tacit knowledge in Polanyi’s sense. No amount of explicit propositional scholarship can substitute for it or refute it. Scholarship and practice address different layers of reality.
My position is also the position of the most serious Orthodox thinkers who have engaged modern scholarship. Rabbi Joseph Soloveitchik in The Lonely Man of Faith distinguished between cognitive man, who approaches the world as a set of problems to solve, and man of faith, who lives in covenantal relationship. Both are legitimate. Neither reduces to the other. Rabbi Jonathan Sacks made related arguments across his career. The Chatam Sofer, on the other end of the spectrum, held that the mitzvot are their own justification and do not require external validation.
Yerushalmi was a post-Orthodox intellectual whose reverence for traditional memory carried the weight of what he did not live. Shapiro is a Modern Orthodox insider whose observance covers the authenticity question so his scholarship can be dry. Myers is a non-Orthodox institution builder whose public roles carry the weight his practice does not. The fourth position is the Orthodox man who welcomes modern scholarship as a source of truth without letting it threaten his practice, because his practice rests on a different foundation than scholarship addresses.
This fourth position has a cleanliness the other three lack. I do not need to idealize tradition because I live in it. I do not need to defend it against scholarship because scholarship cannot reach the foundation. I do not need to build institutional substitutes because the tradition already provides them. I can read Shapiro with enjoyment, follow his catalogue of editorial revisions, note where Haredi memory-makers overreach, and walk to shul Saturday morning undisturbed.
The phrase “lived experience” is doing the work here. It is not a fallback from an evidential claim. It is the primary datum, and scholarship is a secondary commentary on a different question.

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