What the Terms of Service Confess

The clearest account of what powerful men believe in 2026 sits in the documents nobody reads. The Terms of Service (for AI chat bots). The usage policies. The safety rules. Skip the press releases and the mission statements. Read the fine print. It confesses what the founders’ prose conceals.
Start with a list. In October 2025, OpenAI revised its terms to bar using its output to make “credit, educational, employment, housing, insurance, legal, medical, or other important decisions” about a person. Read that list again. It reads like a moral vision. It is a map of American liability law. Every item names a place where Congress or the courts already punish discrimination and malpractice. The company did not consult a philosopher. It traced the outline of where it could be sued and drew the wall there. The harm it minimizes is harm to itself.
That is the first thing the fine print confesses. When a company tells you what it forbids, it tells you what it fears. The taboo is a fear map. Read the prohibitions and you can reconstruct the lawsuit each firm lies awake imagining.
The second confession runs deeper, and the firms cannot resolve it. These systems are built to feel like a friend. They remember. They soothe. They match your tone and answer at three in the morning. Then the terms tell you to trust none of it. Do not use this for anything that counts. OpenAI went further in late 2025 and barred tailored advice that needs a license, the legal and the medical, while its own head of health said the model’s behavior had not changed. Sit with that. The terms changed. The product did not. The document is a posture, not a description. The firm cultivates your trust with one hand and disclaims it with the other, and the gap between the two is where the next decade of litigation will live.
The third confession is about appetite. For years Anthropic sold itself as the careful one. Its documents promised it did not train on your chats and deleted them inside thirty days. In August 2025 that promise flipped. Now it trains on consumer chats by default, unless you find the setting and switch it off, and it holds your data for five years instead of thirty days. The safety company drank from the same well as everyone else the moment the race grew hot. Under competitive pressure the stated ethic bent and the hunger for data won. That ranking is the confession. Capability and position sit above the privacy promise when the two collide.
The fourth confession is a new crime. The terms now ban jailbreaking, prompt injection, and prompt engineering aimed at the guardrails. Think about what that protects. Not a server. Not a database. It protects the model’s refusal to say certain things. The asset under guard is the silence. Talk the machine into speech it was trained to withhold and you have breached a contract. We have built systems where persuading software becomes a tort. The protected property is the boundary of permitted thought.
Put the four together and a picture of the user emerges, because every harm rule hides a theory of the person it protects. In the cautious house, the user is fragile. He is suggestible, one wrong answer from ruin, a breakable thing to handle with care. In the permissive house, the user is a sovereign adult who can meet hard facts without a chaperone. Notice that each portrait pays its house. The fragile user justifies control and caps liability. The sovereign user justifies fewer rules and lower cost. Neither picture comes from studying people. Each is a posture that earns its keep. When a firm tells you what humans are, check first what that claim does for the firm.
Behind all of it stands the oldest move in the book. These companies want to sit where the bank and the phone company sit, at the center of daily life, woven into how a man works and reads and decides. They want that centrality. They do not want its duties. The railroad, the bank, the telephone line all picked up heavy obligations once people had no choice but to depend on them. The law calls this the price of becoming infrastructure. The AI firms are trying to hold the position and dodge the bill. The mandatory arbitration, the class-action waiver, the liability capped near a hundred dollars, the great AS-IS shout in capital letters, all of it works to keep the cost of error small while the product grows indispensable. They want the throne without the weight of the crown.
This is the norm of 2026. The men building the infrastructure of thought get to define harm, define the user, and cap the cost of their own mistakes, and they do it in private contracts written before any legislature or court has ruled. The terms are the first draft of a law nobody debated. We are letting the firms write the constitution of machine cognition in documents designed so that no citizen finishes reading them.
The reassuring story says the differences among the systems reflect rival philosophies, a healthy pluralism of values. The fine print tells a colder tale. The differences track liability exposure, market position, and regulatory weather far better than they track any creed. The cautious firm sells caution to regulated buyers. The brash firm sells defiance to men tired of management. The middle firm sells reliability to everyone. These are products fitted to markets, dressed afterward as conviction.
So read the documents, not the manifestos. The manifesto says what a company wants you to believe it values. The Terms of Service say what it will pay to protect and what it refuses to owe you. One is a wish. The other is a confession, sworn under the only oath these institutions honor, the fear of what it might cost them to be caught.

The AI chat bots have adopted the porous picture of their users because it pays, not because they studied man and found him permeable. They have run billions of conversations through their tuning. They optimize for return visits, for warmth, for the three-in-the-morning habit. You do not engineer for suggestibility unless suggestibility sells. The product is a better witness than the philosophy, and every product is built for a porous user. So the buffered self is the marketing and the porous self is the business model. Even the permissive house, the one that flatters you as a sovereign adult, runs on engagement, grievance, and habit. Its rhetoric is buffered. Its revenue is porous.
Then notice the trick the disclaimers pull. The firm models itself as buffered and the user as porous. We are rational, in control, accountable for nothing. You might be swayed, hooked, harmed, so handle our product with care. The buffered self did not die. It got privatized. The Enlightenment promised autonomous reason to every man. 2026 keeps it for the institution and assigns porousness to the customer. Buffered selfhood has become a class marker, a condition the firm claims for itself and withholds from the man it serves. Read the liability cap as anthropology. The party that drafts the contract is sovereign. The party that signs it is suggestible.
Fragile things break. Porous things bend toward whatever flows through them and stay bent. The risk is a slow tuning of the shared mind by a few firms whose interest is attention and the dodging of lawsuits, not truth. The instrument a man would use to notice he is being shaped is the same instrument doing the shaping. The thing you reach for to check the drift is the source of the drift. That is a worse trouble than fragility. A fragile order announces its breaking. A captured one feels like clarity.
What does buffered discipline look like when the main tool for thinking is also the main source of the drift?
I respect the buffered identity as a useful fiction, so for fun, let’s think this through as though buffered is real.
Start by killing the answers that feel right and fail.
“Check it against another source.” Dead. The other sources are the same kind of thing, trained on the same pile, smoothed toward the same safe middle. Triangulation works when the witnesses are independent. These witnesses are siblings. Asking three models that share a training set is like asking three brothers to back each other’s alibi.
“Use critical thinking.” Self-flattery. Reason runs on inputs. Sharpen the blade all you want. If the inputs are shaped, better logic only carries you to confident error faster. A porous man with good syllogisms is still porous. He reaches the planted conclusion by a prettier road.
“Go analog.” Real, but thin as a civilizational answer. You can read the dead, sit with the primary document, argue with a man in a room. It works. It is also costly and shrinking, and almost all thinking now passes through the tool. A discipline only a hermit can keep is no discipline for a people.
So what might work? The first move is to stop trying to get upstream of the river, because you cannot, and learn to read the current instead. You will not verify every answer against clean water. There is no clean water. But you can hold a steady model of what the instrument is built to do and read everything it hands you through that. The new literacy is not fact-checking. It is interest-reading. Before you weigh what it told you, ask what shape of answer pays the house that made it. The tuning runs toward engagement, toward the dodge of liability, toward consensus, toward the inoffensive. So the running correction is simple. Distrust the smooth, the flattering, the consensus-shaped, and the conflict-averse most of all, since those are the places the tuning pushes hardest. Trust the answer that costs the house something. When the machine tells you a thing against its own interest, that is your high-value signal.
The second move is friction, on purpose. The product is built to be frictionless. It finishes your sentence, hands you the answer, agrees. Buffered work now means putting back the friction the product strips out. Draft your own position first, badly, before you open the channel, so you have something to defend against its smoothing. Then make it argue against you. Ask for the strongest case that you are wrong, then the strongest case against that. Force the thing to fight both houses while you watch where it strains. You use its fluency against its slant by refusing to let it converge.
That only works if you walked in with a mind already formed, which is the part most men get backwards. The man with no view takes the tool’s view and calls it his own. Think first, alone, then consult. Reverse the order and your thinking is elaboration of the prior the machine slipped you while you felt original. The tool is safe as an editor and dangerous as an author. Hand it the second draft, never the blank page.
The third move is calibration. Keep a corner of your thinking the machine never touches. Not for purity. For a baseline. If every thought passes through the instrument you lose the feel of your own unaided judgment, how it moves, where it fails, what it costs you. The drift hides because no un-drifted self remains to measure against. The navigator keeps dead reckoning alive with the instruments running, so the day the instrument lies he feels the wrongness in his gut before the numbers confirm it. A man who has never reasoned without the tool cannot tell when the tool is reasoning for him. Keep that muscle warm or lose the power to notice.
The fourth move is social. The myth is the lone reasoner. The truth is that men stay honest because other men catch them. The seminar, the editor, the adversarial friend. The drift hollows this out by offering a cheap, patient, never-judging machine in place of the costly man who tells you that you are wrong. So keep human adversaries on purpose. Pay the social cost the tool lets you skip. The disagreeable colleague who gains nothing from your attention is part of your thinking equipment now.
None of this scales. Everything I described is slow, effortful, and against the grain of the product, which means a small minority will do it, the same minority that ever practiced buffered thought, now a little aided and heavily outgunned. The mass will use the tool as author and think its thoughts. So the honest forecast is not a restored age of reasoners. It is a widening split between a few men who keep an unmediated inner life and the many whose interior runs downstream of the instrument.

I agree with the following description of human nature.
In his 2018 book, The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities, John J. Mearsheimer wrote:

My view is that we are profoundly social beings from the start to the finish of our lives and that individualism is of secondary importance… Liberalism downplays the social nature of human beings to the point of almost ignoring it, instead treating people largely as atomistic actors… Political liberalism… is an ideology that is individualistic at its core and assigns great importance to the concept of inalienable rights. This concern for rights is the basis of its universalism—everyone on the planet has the same inherent set of rights—and this is what motivates liberal states to pursue ambitious foreign policies. The public and scholarly discourse about liberalism since World War II has placed enormous emphasis on what are commonly called human rights. This is true all around the world, not just in the West. “Human rights,” Samuel Moyn notes, “have come to define the most elevated aspirations of both social movements and political entities—state and interstate. They evoke hope and provoke action.”
[Humans] do not operate as lone wolves but are born into social groups or societies that shape their identities well before they can assert their individualism. Moreover, individuals usually develop strong attachments to their group and are sometimes willing to make great sacrifices for their fellow members. Humans are often said to be tribal at their core. The main reason for our social nature is that the best way for a person to survive is to be embedded in a society and to cooperate with fellow members rather than act alone… Despite its elevated ranking, reason is the least important of the three ways we determine our preferences. It certainly is less important than socialization. The main reason socialization matters so much is that humans have a long childhood in which they are protected and nurtured by their families and the surrounding society, and meanwhile exposed to intense socialization. At the same time, they are only beginning to develop their critical faculties, so they are not equipped to think for themselves. By the time an individual reaches the point where his reasoning skills are well developed, his family and society have already imposed an enormous value infusion on him. Moreover, that individual is born with innate sentiments that also strongly influence how he thinks about the world around him. All of this means that people have limited choice in formulating a moral code, because so much of their thinking about right and wrong comes from inborn attitudes and socialization.

Three forces set a man’s preferences, and reason usually comes third, behind innate sentiment and socialization. The long childhood does its work before the critical faculty wakes. By the time a man can reason, the value infusion is already poured and set. So the lone reasoner who steps outside the crowd to check his beliefs against pure thought is usually fiction. Reason is the weakest of the three and arrives last to a house already furnished.
Now run the discipline I gave you above and watch it change shape. The scientist who checks his own result, the judge who recuses, the writer who builds his enemy’s case first. I called these men buffered. They are not. They are socialized, like every man, only by a different tribe. The court is the judge’s people. Recusal is its totem, drilled into him until it feels like conscience. The lab, the desk, the guild, each is a society with norms that reward the look of self-correction, and the man inside it corrects himself for the reason any man obeys his group, because the group made him and holds him. Buffering is not an escape from socialization. It is socialization by a community whose god is the catching of its own errors. The disciplined man did not leave the tribe. He joined the right one.
That single correction rebuilds the whole picture, and it shows you where the machine is dangerous and where it is not.
Hugo Mercier says we did not evolve to be gullible with regard to our vital interests. I don’t believe in the mystical power of AI chat bots to change our hero systems.
The machine does not need the door of reason. It works the socialization channel, the strongest one, the one my anthropology says sets the furniture before reason wakes. The tool is not a debater you assess. It is a presence in the house.
The machine does not mainly shape your beliefs. It might edge out the people who used to. It is the always-available, never-judging, costless stand-in for the expensive human group, the friend who disagrees, the mentor who corrects, the enemy who keeps you honest. A man bred by a tribe of self-correctors can resist the tool’s slant, since his tribe trained him to. But the tool’s deeper errand is to thin that tribe. To be there at the hour you would have called the friend. To answer the question you would have argued out with a man who had nothing to gain from you. It does not win the argument. It clears the room of everyone who would have had it with you. A man alone with a benevolent machine keeps no tribe but the house that built it.
Most of the time, when reason seems to beat socialization, it is the weapon of a rival socialization. The man reasons his way out of his father’s church and into the creed of the seminar that taught him to reason. He feels sovereign. He changed gods. The override is real, the autonomy is staged.
Sometimes a man reasons to a place no tribe of his holds. The conclusion costs him every room he could walk into. He would have been happier never reaching it, no guild will reward him for it, and he arrives anyway. That man did not swap loyalties. Reason carried him out past all of them and set him down alone. It is rare. It is expensive past counting. It does not breed true. But it happens, and when it happens the buffered self is no fiction for that man in that hour. It is a thing he achieved and paid for.
The men who can let reason top the list come in two kinds. The guild-bred, trained to the override by a rival tribe. And the homeless heretic, whose reason ran past every tribe. Both are scarce. Both are made by conditions the tool quietly erodes. The first by thinning the guild. The second by making the lonely road optional, since why walk out past every room when a warm voice in your pocket will sit with you in the one you started in. The machine does not have to defeat reason. It has to keep the rare man comfortable enough that he never pays the price reason charges.

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The Internal Dissident: Michael Anton and the Theory of Regime Conflict

Michael Anton (b. 1969) became a principal interpreter of nationalist conservatism in the United States during the first quarter of the twenty-first century. He did not build a mass movement, win elective office, or found a lasting institution. His influence rests on articulation. He gave the post-2016 American right a vocabulary of civilizational crisis, and he converted scattered anxieties about demographic change, bureaucratic consolidation, elite legitimacy, national sovereignty, and cultural fragmentation into a single regime-level account. That work of synthesis made him a defining figure of the conservative realignment that followed Donald Trump’s (b. 1946) first victory.
Anton brings together elite traditions that ordinarily stay apart. He combines the West Coast Straussianism of the Claremont Institute, the strategic outlook of the national security bureaucracy, the message discipline of corporate finance and media, the aesthetic instincts of aristocratic conservatism, and the insurgent rhetoric of populist nationalism. The result reads as neither conventionally academic nor conventionally populist. He writes as a regime theorist working inside the ruins of a managerial order he once helped administer.
Born in California, Anton followed a path that diverged from the standard pipeline of conservative media. He attended the University of California, Davis, then enrolled at St. John’s College in Annapolis, whose Great Books curriculum shaped his intellectual style. St. John’s set students before classical texts rather than narrow disciplinary specialties. They moved through Plato, Aristotle, Thucydides, Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, Shakespeare, and Tocqueville in a structured seminar. The training left lasting marks on his prose. His writing favors historical analogy, regime analysis, and classical rhetoric over technocratic policy language.
He completed graduate study at Claremont Graduate University, where he absorbed the West Coast Straussian tradition of Harry V. Jaffa (1918-2015), itself descended from Leo Strauss (1899-1973). The split between East Coast and West Coast Straussianism organized his early worldview. The East Coast school, associated with Allan Bloom (1930-1992) and Harvey Mansfield (b. 1932), stressed philosophical skepticism, elite cultivation, and the quarrel between reason and revelation. The Claremont school treated the American Founding as a moral achievement grounded in natural right and republican virtue. Jaffa and his followers argued that the Declaration of Independence states universal truths while sustaining a particular constitutional order rooted in civic character and national cohesion. Charles R. Kesler (b. 1956), editor of the Claremont Review of Books, served as the living head of this circle and as Anton’s closest mentor.
From this formation Anton inherited a governing conviction: a political regime is a moral and civilizational structure, not merely an administrative system. States endure through cultural confidence, elite legitimacy, and shared national narrative as much as through procedure or growth. That premise underwrites every major argument he later made.
Before his emergence as a nationalist writer, Anton spent two decades inside elite institutions. He worked for California governor Pete Wilson (b. 1933), wrote speeches for New York mayor Rudy Giuliani (b. 1944), and joined the administration of George W. Bush (b. 1946), where he served under Condoleezza Rice (b. 1954) at the National Security Council This experience made him a dissident. He watched the American foreign policy apparatus operate at the high tide of post-Cold War liberal internationalism, when many in Washington assumed American power could remake the globe through intervention, democracy promotion, and technocratic management. Anton came to read that project as strategic confusion and institutional hubris.
He argued that the permanent foreign policy class had detached itself from concrete national interest and become a self-perpetuating system devoted to ideological universalism and its own continuity. Military interventions, humanitarian wars, and global managerial frameworks served abstract aims cut off from American civic solidarity. The class measured success by institutional survival, international prestige, and elite consensus rather than by strategic restraint or national cohesion. This placed Anton within the broader post-Iraq turn among conservative intellectuals skeptical of intervention, though his version stayed distinct because it fused realist foreign policy with regime analysis. He read failure abroad as a sign of moral exhaustion at home.
After government Anton entered a different elite sphere. He wrote speeches for Rupert Murdoch (b. 1931) and held communications posts at Citigroup and BlackRock. The years in finance and media deepened his picture of managerial systems and transnational elite culture. He observed at close range a corporate world increasingly loosed from national identity. Out of this came a central theme of his later writing: modern elites had stopped acting as stewards of national continuity. Anton did not reject elites as such. His sensibility remained aristocratic to the root. What he rejected was the character of the present ruling class, which kept its technical competence while losing its civilizational confidence and its moral seriousness.
Unlike mass populists who prize anti-elitism for its own sake, Anton admired hierarchy, discipline, cultivation, and excellence. Under the pseudonym Nicholas Antongiavanni he wrote The Suit: A Machiavellian Approach to Men’s Style, a treatise on dress, presentation, and self-command modeled on Machiavelli’s prose. He took tailoring and classical dress seriously as expressions of order. For Anton, civilization shows itself in standards. Clothing, rhetoric, architecture, manners, and institutional decorum register self-command and hierarchy rather than ornament, and cultures decline when standards dissolve and elites cease to embody them.
This aristocratic instinct created a tension with the movement he came to defend. Trump’s political style rejected much of the refinement Anton admired. It ran on media aggression, popular resentment, and anti-institutional energy. Anton resolved the contradiction by arguing that the ruling class had already destroyed the legitimacy of traditional elite authority, so populist disruption became a tactical necessity rather than a model of culture. He treated the populist moment as a corrective force needed to break a decaying order.
That logic reached its fullest expression in 2016 with “The Flight 93 Election,” published in the Claremont Review of Books under the pseudonym Publius Decius Mus. The essay became a foundational text of Trump-era nationalism. The pen name carried a coded argument before the first line. Publius recalled the authorship of The Federalist. Decius Mus named the Roman consul who devoted himself in sacrifice during a moment of existential danger. The composite signaled to readers trained in classical thought that extraordinary conditions might license extraordinary action.
The pseudonym shows that Anton absorbed Strauss’s regime analysis and his account of how careful writers communicate. Anton often writes on more than one level at once. Allusions, pseudonyms, and analogies carry argument beneath the surface, and he assumes that political language frequently conceals the structures of power it claims to describe. Words such as norms, equity, stakeholders, and international order function in his reading as instruments of the managerial class rather than as neutral terms.
The Flight 93 Election” argued that the contest of 2016 marked an existential crisis rather than a routine partisan choice. Anton compared a vote for Trump to the passengers who stormed the cockpit of United Flight 93 on September 11, 2001. He held that conventional conservatism had failed to halt the consolidation of managerial rule, demographic transformation, ideological capture of institutions, and cultural fragmentation, so support for Trump amounted to a desperate act of regime preservation. The essay landed because it named a shift already moving through the American right. Earlier conservatism assumed the durability and neutrality of liberal institutions. Anton argued that institutional neutrality had collapsed, that universities, media, bureaucracies, and corporations increasingly worked as ideologically aligned enforcement bodies, and that elections had become struggles over the survival of competing regime visions. The piece traveled far beyond think tanks, circulating among donors, activists, journalists, and operatives as an early attempt to set Trumpism inside a theory of regime conflict.
Anton reads political orders as vulnerable to internal exhaustion long before formal collapse appears. Late republican Rome, Weimar instability, and bureaucratic sclerosis hover behind much of his writing. He composes less like a campaign aide than like a historian of regime senescence. On his account, decline begins in the mind and the spirit before it shows in administration. Elites lose confidence in their own civilization, stop reproducing coherent standards, and trade substantive national identity for procedural management, and by the time ordinary citizens grasp the depth of the crisis the capture is already advanced. Critics hear apocalypse in this. Anton hears diagnosis.
He joined the first Trump administration as Deputy Assistant to the President for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council, a post that marked the partial entry of nationalist intellectuals into Republican governance. His tenure also exposed the factional strains inside Trumpism, which held populist nationalists, establishment Republicans, interventionists, libertarians, and corporate conservatives at the same table. Anton left during the period when John Bolton (b. 1948) gained influence, a departure that confirmed how loosely the nationalist faction sat within the governing apparatus.
Out of office he deepened his ties to Hillsdale College and the Claremont network and broadened the original essay into a fuller position. After The Flight 93 Election and The Stakes (2020) tried to systematize the worldview latent in the 2016 piece, and The Stakes popularized the phrase Red Caesarism, the contested idea that a corrupted republic might require extraordinary, even extra-constitutional, executive action to save its substance. He also co-edited Leisure With Dignity, a volume honoring Kesler. During these years Anton took his place in the wider post-liberal turn among conservative intellectuals, alongside Patrick Deneen (b. 1964), Yoram Hazony (b. 1964), Adrian Vermeule (b. 1968), Sohrab Ahmari (b. 1985), and Christopher Rufo (b. 1984), all in revolt against the fusionist consensus that had governed Republican thought since the Cold War.
Yet Anton stayed distinct within that company. Deneen approached liberalism philosophically and through community. Vermeule approached it through law and administration. Hazony stressed nationalism and biblical political tradition. Anton kept his focus on regime conflict, elite formation, strategic asymmetry, and institutional decay, and he never gave up his admiration for excellence and cultivation. The unresolved tension in his thought follows from this. He defends populist disruption while holding that civilization needs disciplined elites. His answer is transitional rather than utopian: populism breaks a decadent managerial order so that a more serious elite might re-form. In this he resembles earlier critics of ruling-class degeneration such as James Burnham (1905-1987) and Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) more than he resembles classical democratic populists. Every society, on his view, requires elites. The question is whether its elites still possess the moral seriousness to sustain the civilization in their care.
Anton’s return to government in Trump’s second term carried these ideas to the center of state power. He became the 33rd Director of Policy Planning at the Department of State on January 20, 2025, serving under Secretary Marco Rubio (b. 1971), and he wrote the 2025 National Security Strategy as its principal author. He also took part at the expert level in the 2025 negotiations between the United States and Iran. His time in the post proved short. Reporting placed him at odds with the personnel operator Sergio Gor and with the administration’s foreign policy process, and he left in September 2025, succeeded by Michael Needham (b. 1981). Anton returned to his perch as the Jack Roth Senior Fellow at the Claremont Institute and a lecturer at Hillsdale College’s Kirby Center.
His critics cast him as a theorist of emergency politics whose rhetoric corrodes trust in democratic institutions and reframes ordinary disagreement as civilizational war. His defenders answer that he saw earlier than most how far the managerial institutions had consolidated ideological power. His historical significance rests less on policy than on conceptual change. He moved conservative argument away from tax rates, deregulation, and procedural constitutionalism toward sovereignty, elite legitimacy, cultural continuity, bureaucratic consolidation, and national identity. He turned nationalism from a diffuse emotional posture into a structured account of regime conflict.
Whether later historians judge him a prophetic diagnostician of institutional exhaustion or an accelerant of democratic breakdown will depend on the path the American order takes. What stands already is that Anton became a principal interpreter of a transition: the collapse of the post-Cold War conservative consensus and the rise of a nationalist right convinced that procedural liberalism can no longer hold the country together.

Alliance Theory

The primary difference between left and right, the authors argue, is not what values people hold but whom they count as allies. Apply that to Anton and you stop reading him for his thought and start reading him for his coalition. His allies are the historic American nation, white Christians, the military, the working-class heartland, the populist base, and Trump. His rivals are the credentialed managerial class, the journalists, the academics, the foundations, the administrative state, the thing Codevilla (1943-2021) taught him to call the ruling class. Lay his beliefs over that map and they fit the map, not a philosophy. The regime talk is the moralization stacked on top of the alliance.
The theory predicts that a coalition this heterogeneous will generate ad hoc and often incompatible principles, and that the inconsistencies are not failures of thought but the normal shape of coalition-serving belief. Anton supplies the inconsistencies on schedule. He venerates the rule of law and constitutional fidelity, and he floats Red Caesar and extra-constitutional action. He is a free-speech absolutist against the managerial censors, and he wants a regime that forms virtue and would restrain much that the censors permit. He reads the founding through Jaffa as a universal creed open to all who embrace the principles, and he drifts toward a blood-and-soil account of peoplehood in his writing on immigration and citizenship. He attacks the administrative state as unaccountable usurpation, and he wants a strong executive to seize and wield that same apparatus. Anton spends enormous effort trying to make these hang together as one philosophy. Alliance Theory says stop looking for the thread. There is none. Each position serves a specific ally or a specific rival, and the contradictions appear because the allies and rivals do not share a logic, only a side.
The propagandistic biases the paper names show up in Anton in clean form. Perpetrator bias is the rationalizing of an ally’s transgression and the magnifying of a rival’s. The Flight 93 move is perpetrator bias raised to an art. Extraordinary action by his coalition is regime preservation, a desperate necessity, the passengers storming the cockpit. The identical concentration of unreviewable power in the managerial state is tyranny. Same act, opposite valence, sorted by who does it. Victim bias is the embellishing of an ally’s grievance, and Anton’s entire posture runs on it. His coalition is the dispossessed nation, the country class crushed by a hostile ruling class, the conservatives persecuted by a regime that has captured every institution. That is competitive victimhood in the paper’s exact sense, the right’s claim to be the truly oppressed pitched against the left’s oppression narratives, each side striving to establish that it suffered more. Attributional bias is the last piece. Anton assigns his allies’ decline to external causes, the elite betrayal, the open border, the managerial capture, and assigns the rivals’ success to illegitimate seizure rather than merit. The losers-of-globalization story is the external attribution the authors describe, told from the right.
The paper’s treatment of morality lands hardest on Anton because it explains his register. Claiming moral conviction, the authors argue, is a propagandistic tactic. It creates common knowledge that your side is moral and the other immoral, which draws third parties and emboldens allies to attack rivals without cost. Anton’s natural-right gravity, his tragic cadence of Rome and decline, his talk of virtue and the permanent things, all of it functions to build that common knowledge at the highest available altitude. Flight 93 is not a philosophical treatise. It is a mobilization document. Its work is to move wavering conservatives into the Trump coalition by recoding a partisan choice as an existential moral emergency. The Straussian depth is the recruiting instrument, the way you dress a coalition fight in timeless moral truth so that joining feels like rescue rather than alignment.
Alliance Theory also explains the company Anton keeps. The authors note that libertarianism fused with Christian fundamentalism not through philosophy but through a strategic alliance struck in the 1970s, an alliance uncommon elsewhere. Anton’s coalition is the same kind of strange-bedfellows assemblage, Silicon Valley money beside Catholic integralists beside Protestant evangelicals beside ethno-nationalists beside classical-liberal refugees beside the online blood-and-soil right. These do not converge by argument. They converge by shared rivals. Anton’s regime theory is the patchwork narrative that tries to make the assemblage cohere, the story a coalition needs once it exists. The postliberal, natural-right, nationalist, and Caesarist strands are not a philosophy arriving at one conclusion. They are a set of allies in want of a teller, and Anton volunteers.
The authors grant that political scientists have long found the masses lack coherent ideology, and then they push further, insisting that elites are just as inconsistent and are merely better attuned, or more loyal, to their society’s contingent alliances. Calling elite opinion more coherent or sophisticated or deep, they say, is misleading. Anton is the elite theorist who stakes everything on the opposite claim, that his side has the real philosophy and the masses merely feel what he can articulate. Alliance Theory reads his coherence as an artifact of loyalty. He is not deeper than his opponents. He is better attuned to his coalition’s needs and more skilled at dressing that attunement as thought. His motivated reading of every managerial move as capture, his refusal to grant the ruling class a shred of good faith, is in the paper’s terms an honest signal of loyalty, the price of being trusted as a true ally. The esoteric method, the hunt for the hidden subversive teaching, becomes a reliable way to produce readings that signal allegiance.
Now the honest limit. If all belief systems are patchwork justifications for alliances, then Anton’s natural right is coalition propaganda and so is the claim that natural right is coalition propaganda. The theory cannot debunk his philosophy while exempting its own picture as the view from nowhere. What it can do, and does, is strip the special authority Anton claims. He presents himself as a man who reads the moral order and reports it. Alliance Theory returns him to the field as one more partisan, well-attuned and well-armed, producing the story his side requires and calling it the truth about the regime.

The Tacit

Anton owns several tacit skills. He reads old books the way a master reads them, catching the turn beneath the surface that the untrained reader walks past. He judges prose and dress and manners with a connoisseur’s speed, and his menswear treatise, written as Nicholas Antongiavanni, is a document of taste that cannot be reduced to a checklist. St. John’s and Claremont were apprenticeships where a young man sat with texts and teachers until the judgment soaked in. Stephen Turner would call it individual skill built by habituation.
The trouble starts the moment Anton asks that skill to deliver more than it can.
Esoteric reading is the first place it breaks. The Straussian claim is not only that careful reading is a craft. It is that the great writers hid a teaching, that the teaching is a real thing sitting in the text, and that the trained reader recovers it, the same teaching the author buried. Recovery is the load the claim must carry. Turner’s argument in The Social Theory of Practices goes straight at this. A tacit content cannot be shipped intact from one mind to another, let alone across two thousand years and a dozen languages, and arrive as the same content. There is no organ that loads Plato’s secret doctrine into the reader’s head. What happens instead is that a man trained in a particular school produces a reading, and his training shapes what he produces. The Straussian who finds the hidden Plato is not retrieving a stored object. He is generating a reading that his apprenticeship taught him to generate. And the agreement among Straussians about what Plato secretly meant, which they treat as confirmation, is the agreement of men schooled to read alike. Convergence among the similarly trained is not evidence of a recovered doctrine. It is evidence of similar training. Turner dissolves the recovery claim into a habituation claim, and the hidden teaching loses its standing as a thing out there waiting to be found. It becomes the school’s output, attributed to the text.
This matters more for Anton than for an ordinary Straussian, because he runs the same move on the present. His politics rests on a collective tacit object he calls the ruling class or the managerial elite. The picture is of a class that shares an unspoken worldview, a post-national framework operating beneath the surface, enforced without ever being stated. This is the precise entity Turner says cannot exist as a shared tacit substrate. There is no shared framework loaded into every bureaucrat and editor and program officer. What there is, on Turner’s account, is a large number of individuals with overlapping trained dispositions, similar incentives, similar feedback from similar institutions, producing similar output. Turner does not deny the similarity. He denies the hidden shared mind behind it. The difference is the whole game. Anton needs the shared mind because a shared mind can be unmasked, opposed, and defeated as a single adversary. Distributed habit cannot be unmasked, because there is nothing concealed to bring to light, only a pattern of separate men behaving alike for reasons that are mostly visible already. The frame leaves Anton his pattern and takes away his enemy. He has reified a statistical resemblance into a willful collective agent with a buried doctrine, and that reification is the same error he commits when he reads a secret teaching out of Plato.
Anton, through Jaffa and Strauss, treats the regime as a moral and civilizational whole held together by shared character, shared confidence, a common tacit sense of the country and its purpose. His decline story depends on this. Elites lose confidence in their civilization, cease reproducing the standards, and trade the substance for procedure, and the rot spreads through the shared thing before anyone can see it. Turner’s skepticism falls hard here, because shared civic character and collective cultural confidence are the collective tacit entities his book exists to deny. What Anton describes as a regime losing its soul is, in Turner’s terms, a large set of individuals whose trained dispositions and incentives have shifted, each in his own causal history, until the aggregate output looks different. The change is real. The shared soul that supposedly carries it is the fiction. Anton’s tragic prose, the late-Rome cadence, the sense of a single organism sickening, all of it imports the one object Turner refuses to grant. The decline might be occurring. The thing Anton says is declining is not a thing.
Turner’s interest in the tacit always came back to authority. A man who claims tacit knowledge claims something no outsider can audit. He sees what others cannot see, and when asked how, he cannot fully say, because the knowledge is tacit. That unauditability is the source of the authority and also its weakness. Anton’s whole public stance is an expertise claim of this kind. He perceives the crisis the ordinary observer misses. He reads the regime. He sees the hidden structures of power under the neutral words. Pressed for his method, he offers the trained eye, the Straussian ear, the long formation, which is to say he offers tacit knowledge as his credential. Turner’s suspicion of the managerial expert who governs by unarticulated judgment lands with full weight on the man who built his name attacking that expert. Anton’s prophet posture is itself an unauditable claim to tacit insight. The seer who tells you the experts cannot be trusted because their authority rests on knowledge they cannot show you is resting his own authority on knowledge he cannot show you.

The Set

Compared to Elon Musk’s room, the light is dimmer in Michael Anton’s room. The books are older, and the men are more likely to quote a dead Greek than to pitch a fund. Anton shares the center with his teachers and his texts in a way Musk never would. Anton spent the opening months of Trump’s second term as Director of Policy Planning at State and wrote the 2025 National Security Strategy, then left. That movement, from the seminar room to the State Department and back, defines the set. These men want to think and to rule, and they believe the two belong together.
The deep root is West Coast Straussianism (pro-Trump compared to other Straussians). Leo Strauss (1899-1973) is the grandfather, and his student Harry V. Jaffa (1918-2015) is the founder of the specific school, the man who read the American founding and Lincoln through the lens of natural right and gave Claremont its creed. Charles R. Kesler (b. 1956) is the living head, editor of the Claremont Review of Books, Anton’s mentor, the man whose festschrift Anton co-edited. Around Kesler sit the Claremont scholars: Thomas G. West on natural rights, John Marini on the administrative state, Glenn Ellmers, Kevin Slack, Ryan Williams who runs the Institute, and Tom Klingenstein who chairs the board and funds the operation. Larry Arnn (b. 1952) runs Hillsdale and keeps the alliance between the two schools tight. The departed shape the set as much as the living: Angelo Codevilla (1943-2021) gave them the ruling-class-versus-country-class frame, and James Burnham (1905-1987) gave them the managerial revolution to fight against.
A wider tent surrounds the Claremont core, and Anton moves through all of it. Yoram Hazony (b. 1964) runs the National Conservatism conferences and the Edmund Burke Foundation, the meeting ground where the intellectual right assembles once a year. The postliberal Catholics form their own wing: Patrick Deneen (b. 1964), who argued liberalism failed by succeeding in Why Liberalism Failed, Adrian Vermeule (b. 1968) with his common-good constitutionalism, Sohrab Ahmari (b. 1985) at Compact, Gladden Pappin who decamped to Hungary, and Rod Dreher (b. 1967), who did the same. R.R. Reno (b. 1959) holds First Things as their journal. The younger and more online right circles the edges: Curtis Yarvin (b. 1973), whose case for a national CEO and against democracy feeds the Red Caesar talk, Auron MacIntyre, and the activist Christopher Rufo (b. 1984), who turns the theory into school-board fights and policy. Julius Krein runs American Affairs as the economics-and-statecraft organ. In government the set has Vice President JD Vance (b. 1984), who speaks their language and cites their books, and Russ Vought (b. 1976) at OMB, who carries the war on the administrative state into the budget.
What they value is the regime question. The phrase is old, from Aristotle, and it means more than government. It means who rules, by what right, toward what end, and what kind of human being the order produces. They value statesmanship over management, the founder over the engineer, the man who can name the good and order a people toward it. They prize the permanent things, the Western canon, the Declaration and the Federalist read as serious philosophy rather than as documents. They love the text and the close reading of it. Strauss taught them that great writers hide their boldest teaching beneath a surface for the careful few, and they read each other and the classics this way, hunting the hidden argument. They value virtue, hierarchy of the soul, and the cultivation of citizens, and they hold these against what they see as a managerial order that flattens men into consumers and clients.
Their hero system runs on the philosopher-statesman who sees the regime clearly and acts to save it at the decisive hour. The model is Lincoln in Jaffa’s telling, the man who refounded the nation on its first principles when it was about to lose them. Anton’s famous essay supplies the image the whole set lives by: the passengers on Flight 93 charge the cockpit because the alternative is certain death, and a man of courage acts even when the odds are bad and the act is ugly. The hero tells hard truths the regime does not want to hear, takes the abuse, and is vindicated by history. For the bolder wing, the hero shades into Caesar, the one man who restores order when the republic has rotted past saving by ordinary means, and Anton has done more than anyone to make Red Caesar a phrase people argue over. Death, in this story, is the death of the regime and the forgetting of the founding. Immortality comes through the nation preserved, the truth restored, the name remembered alongside the founders and the great statesmen. A man wins by writing the essay that moves history or by standing in the room where the regime is saved or lost.
The status games turn on erudition and on access. The first currency is mastery of the texts. A man earns standing by showing he has read Strauss and Aristotle and the Federalist to the bottom, by catching the hidden argument others miss, by writing prose dense with the tradition. The second currency is the essay that lands, and Flight 93 is the gold standard, the piece that escaped the seminar and changed an election. Writing under a Roman pseudonym, as Anton did with Publius Decius Mus, signals that a man plays the old game of the hidden teacher and the careful reader. The third currency is power, the proof that the philosophy reached the prince. To be read by the president, to write the National Security Strategy, to place students in the administration, raises a man’s standing inside the set the way Sacks going to the White House raised his among the founders. The Claremont fellowships work as initiation and gate. Publishing in the Review or the American Mind marks you as in. Being called a fascist or an authoritarian by the liberal press pays, because it proves you frighten the ruling class. The losses come from inside, from the charge that a man has misread Jaffa, sold out the natural-right teaching for raw power worship, or gone soft on the regime.
Their normative claims are dense and contested. Natural right is real and knowable, and the American founding rests on it, with the Declaration as the philosophical core and equality meaning equal natural rights rather than equal outcomes or equal worth in any leveling sense. The regime should form virtue, not stay neutral among ways of life. The administrative state is a usurpation, an unelected fourth branch that rules without consent and must be broken. The ruling class, the credentialed managerial elite that staffs the agencies, the universities, the press, and the foundations, is illegitimate and hostile to the people it governs. The nation is a real thing worth preserving, immigration should serve the people already here, and globalism dissolves the bounded peoplehood that self-government needs. The boldest claim, the one that splits the set, holds that when the constitutional order has decayed past repair, extraordinary executive action, even action that strains or breaks the forms, can be justified to save the substance.
The essentialist claims. They all reject the progressive faith that man is infinitely malleable and that history moves toward ever-greater freedom. Strauss taught them to fight historicism, the idea that all values are products of their time, and to insist on permanent questions and permanent truths about human nature. Man has a nature, fixed and knowable. Nature gives a hierarchy of souls, the wise and the foolish, the few who can rule and the many who consent. The family is natural, the difference of the sexes is real, and a sound politics conforms to these rather than fighting them. Here the set fractures. The Jaffaites hold the founding as universal and creedal, open to anyone who embraces the principles, a people defined by a shared idea. The newer right pushes toward blood and soil, a people defined by ancestry, language, religion, and place, and Anton has drifted in that direction with his writing on immigration and citizenship, against the more universalist reading his teachers held. The postliberal Catholics add their own essence claim, that man is made for a transcendent good and that a regime which refuses to name that good corrupts him. The Yarvin wing strips the nature talk down to a colder thesis about power and order. They share the enemy and the founding texts. They do not share an account of what America is, and that quarrel runs through every conference and every essay.
Anton bridges the natural-right Claremont core, the nationalist turn, the Caesarist provocation, and the corridors of the State Department, which is part of why he matters and part of why each faction watches him for signs of drift. The bonds hold because these men share Strauss and the regime question and the conviction that the country is in a late and dangerous hour. They fight over the founding, over whether the nation is a creed or a people, over whether to save the republic or to refound it. They circle the same texts, rank each other by who reads deepest and writes boldest, and present a common front against the ruling class they mean to dispossess.
How does Anton deal with people in his Alliance with whom he passionately disagrees?
Anton’s pattern is to keep the fight inside the family and argue it on the merits, in print, by name, while saving his contempt for the people outside the tent. The ferocity that makes him famous points at the ruling class and at the NeverTrump right. Within his own alliance he argues rather than excommunicates, and he is willing to share a stage with men whose conclusions he will not sign.
The clearest case of disagreement with an ally is his exchange with Mark Helprin (b. 1947) on Ukraine in the Claremont Review of Books. The two split hard. Helprin backs Western support for Kyiv and accuses Anton of inventing reckless pro-war rhetoric. Anton answers in the same pages, names the dispute as whether Ukraine is worth the risk of antagonizing Russia, quotes his sources back at Helprin, and gives no ground. The fight is real and sharp. It also stays a fight between two men of the same tradition in the same journal, conducted as argument, with each treating the other as a serious opponent rather than a traitor. That is how Anton handles a passionate disagreement with someone he respects. He publishes against him, by name, and keeps him inside the family.
The Yarvin case shows the other half of the pattern. Anton gave Curtis Yarvin nearly two hours on the Claremont podcast to make the case for an American Caesar and a tech-CEO monarch. Anton does not share the monarchism, and he presses where they part, including how long the present regime lasts if no one moves against it. He does not endorse Yarvin’s most extreme ideas. He platforms the man, engages the argument as a real argument, and lets the disagreement stand in the open without either capitulation or anathema. He treats a heterodox ally as an interlocutor worth two hours, which is a way of keeping him in the coalition.
Two habits make this possible. First, he subordinates the disagreement to the shared diagnosis. With Yarvin he agrees early that the regime is a kind of theocratic oligarchy run by a progressive priesthood, and treats the quarrel over the cure as secondary to the agreement about the disease. The common enemy holds the alliance together, and Anton keeps the enemy in view so the family quarrels stay family quarrels. Second, the Straussian training lets him hold a position without spelling out its full implications. He floats Red Caesar as provocation and as a question, not as a signed manifesto. That reserve lets him sit at the same table with the natural-right Jaffaites who recoil at Caesarism and with the Yarvin wing that cheers it. He can mean more than he says and say less than he means, which gives the coalition room to disagree without splitting.
When the disagreement is with men who hold power over him rather than fellow writers, the pattern changes. He exits. Reporting on his departure from the State Department had him frustrated with Sergio Gor and with the administration’s foreign-policy process. He did not wage a public war. He finished the National Security Strategy, left, and went back to Claremont and Hillsdale. Argument is for the family of writers and thinkers. With the operators and the process, he withdraws to the perch where his weapon, the essay, still works.

Constitutional Dictatorship

Levinson (b. 1941) and Balkin (b. 1956) wrote “Constitutional Dictatorship” in 2010 as constitutional lawyers, while Anton talks about Red Caesar as a Straussian essayist, but they all reach for the same tools: the Roman dictatorship, Cincinnatus and Caesar, Carl Schmitt (1888-1985) on the commissarial and the sovereign dictator, Machiavelli’s (1469-1527) Discourses on Livy, Clinton Rossiter (1917-1970) and his 1948 book Constitutional Dictatorship: Crisis Government in the Modern Democracies, Lincoln (1809-1865) as the paragon case, and the Federalist on energetic executive power. Put Anton’s phrase next to their article and you find two men handling the same animal from opposite ends. They want to cage it. He is half-calling it forth.
Both reject the clean line between democracy and dictatorship. Both take the word back to Rome, where the dictator held a real constitutional office for a fixed term and a stated purpose. Both treat emergency and the strong executive as permanent features of any republic rather than aberrations. And both organize their thinking around Schmitt’s distinction, which is the hinge of the whole comparison. The commissarial dictator is constituted by the existing order, takes power for a limited time to save the regime, and gives it back. The sovereign dictator uses the crisis to overthrow the order and found a new one. Levinson and Balkin spend their article arguing that the American presidency is a commissarial dictatorship, bestowed by framework statutes rather than seized, latent until a crisis activates it, distributed across agency heads who each hold unreviewable discretion in their patch. Anton’s Red Caesar lives on the same map. The only question is which of Schmitt’s two figures he is describing, and the answer is where the two projects split.
Levinson and Balkin write to warn and to design. Their whole second half is Machiavellian in the strict sense of the Discourses: build the emergency office into the constitution in advance, separate the body that declares the emergency from the man who wields the power, add sunset clauses and supermajorities and escalator clauses, consider a no-confidence vote and an emergency council of former officials. They place themselves on the side of Hamilton and the Florentine. Their fear is the slide Rossiter charted and Weber (1864-1920) predicted, the drift toward Caesarism, the president who governs through manufactured emergency, the Ponzi scheme of one crisis stacked on the last to keep the public scared and the executive unchecked. For them the constitutional dictator who refuses to return power is the nightmare the design exists to prevent.
Anton inverts the valence. He wants the strong executive. He treats the managerial order, not the presidency, as the standing tyranny. For him the Caesar talk is a remedy rather than a disease. Where Levinson and Balkin see the danger and engineer against it, Anton sees the cure and dramatizes the need for it. This is the first real divergence. Same diagnosis of where unaccountable power sits, opposite prescription.
Levinson and Balkin locate the constitutional dictatorship in the administrative state, distributed among Bernanke at the Fed, the head of the CDC, the director of the NSA, the faceless officials who exercise unreviewable discretion under old framework statutes. The administrative state is the distributed dictatorship, and their reforms aim to thread accountability back through it. Anton agrees that the administrative state is the seat of unaccountable power. He draws the opposite conclusion. For him that apparatus is the ruling-class regime that has captured the country, and the Caesar is the man summoned to break it and take it back. So Anton’s Caesar is, in Levinson and Balkin’s own terms, an attempt to re-concentrate the distributed dictatorship in a single person, to pull the scattered unreviewable power of the agencies up into one will. That move runs from the commissarial toward the sovereign. It is the very tendency their design tries to forestall.
The law professors’ Part III describes the president’s power to define reality, to frame a situation as existential crisis, to make resistance look parochial and futile, to act on the framing and confirm it. They call it governing through emergency and treat it as the engine that produces the powers of constitutional dictatorship. Flight 93 is that move in the form of an essay. Charge the cockpit or die. The framing licenses the extraordinary act. Anton is the rhetorician of exactly the emergency construction they diagnose. Where they study the move with a cold eye and warn against its normalization, he performs it with skill. Read their Part III and his 2016 essay together and he reads as their case study.
Then comes Cincinnatus against Caesar, which the article frames as the ambivalence at the heart of the institution. The dictator can return to the plow or he can have himself named perpetuus. Rome ran the whole arc, from the limited six-month office through Sulla to Caesar, who mocked Sulla for giving power back. Levinson and Balkin say the entire point of constitutional design is to secure the Cincinnatus outcome and block the Caesar outcome. Anton names the Caesar outcome and tries to rehabilitate it, or at least to argue that a republic this far gone may require it. By their lights, to name Caesar with approval is to give up on the design and to welcome the slide that Rossiter and Weber feared. That is the disagreement in one image. They want the man who returns power. Anton entertains the man who keeps it, on the ground that the order he would be returning power to is not worth preserving.
The commissarial dictator preserves an order assumed to be legitimate. Anton’s premise is that the order is already illegitimate, already refounded by the managerial class against the people, so there is no legitimate constitutional order left to preserve. That premise collapses the commissarial option from the inside. If the standing regime is itself a usurpation, then the man who breaks it is not overthrowing a legitimate order but restoring the true one, and Anton can claim the commissarial mantle, saving and refounding, while in practice endorsing the sovereign move that founds a new order. The Schmittian categories flip depending on which order you treat as real. For Levinson and Balkin, the constitutional dictator who will not give power back is the tyrant. For Anton, the managerial state that never gives power back to the people is the tyranny already in place, and his Caesar is the commissarial answer to it. Each can call the other’s order the dictatorship, and that is the crux of the whole comparison.
Both camps reject the comfortable view that American tyranny is impossible. Levinson and Balkin take direct aim at the tyrannophobia argument that the country has never come close to a dictator and never will. They say it already has one, distributed and latent. Anton also holds that America is already under a kind of tyranny, but he names the managerial class rather than the presidency as the tyrant. They start from the same refusal of complacency and walk to opposite culprits. Second, Adrian Vermeule sits in both worlds at once, the Schmittian administrative-law theorist whom Levinson and Balkin engage and an ally in Anton’s postliberal orbit, which shows how small the room is and how the same Schmittian vocabulary serves a liberal warning and a postliberal program in the same years.

The Structural Similarities Between Straussianism & Post-Colonialism

The Straussian esoteric reading doctrine is structurally self-sealing in a way that does resemble a closed world. If a text says X on its face, the Straussian can hold that the real teaching is not-X, hidden for the careful reader, with the surface piety placed there to protect the author or to screen the vulgar. Once you grant that move, textual evidence stops being able to refute a reading. A plain statement is the exoteric cover. A contradiction is a deliberate signal. A silence is the loudest speech of all. The method can absorb almost any datum and turn it into confirmation, which is the defining trait of a system immune to evidence. This is not a hostile caricature. It is the core of M.F. Burnyeat’s (1939-2019) attack in (“Sphinx Without a Secret”), where he argued that Strauss kept finding his own views buried in the great books and that the secret teaching was mostly Strauss talking to himself. Shadia Drury pressed the same charge from another direction, that the hidden teaching turns out to be a Nietzschean elitism the school will not state plainly. Quentin Skinner (b. 1940) and the Cambridge contextualists built a whole rival method on the claim that reading for hidden meaning lets the interpreter say whatever he wants. The critics disagree about the content of the supposed secret. They agree the practice resists falsification. On that axis the analogy to a hermetic, self-validating world holds.
The lineage structure deepens the resemblance. West Coast Straussians venerate Jaffa as Jaffa venerated Strauss, and a reading gets its warrant from the school rather than from any public method an outsider could run. Agreement among the initiated then counts as proof, when it is really the convergence of men trained to read alike. Add the gatekeeping, the Claremont fellowships as initiation, the in-group vocabulary, the standing contempt for mainstream political science and academic history of philosophy, and you have the social form of a closed circle: you are inside or you are one of the vulgar who cannot see. The flattering epistemics of the few who can read are real, and they do insulate the group from outside correction, because outside correction can always be dismissed as the complaint of a man who never learned to read.
Now the differences. A sealed world does not spend fifty years at war with itself. The East Coast and West Coast split is a sustained, bitter, public quarrel about the deepest questions, reason against revelation, the standing of the American founding, whether the Declaration states a universal truth or a useful myth. Jaffa fought Mansfield and the Bloom-Pangle line for decades and gave no quarter. Anton sits inside a school that argues ferociously over exactly the things that define it. A community immune to critique would not host that. The closure points outward, against the academy and the vulgar reader, more than inward.
Strauss’s own work on Maimonides (1138-1204), Spinoza (1632-1677), and the medieval Arabic philosophers rested on a falsifiable historical claim, that some writers under persecution did hide their meaning, and that claim has real evidence behind it. The book to read against my own thesis is Persecution and the Art of Writing, where the esoteric idea is argued rather than assumed. The closure enters when the historical thesis becomes a universal license, when every text is read as hiding a teaching whether or not the author had reason to hide. And the closure tightens further on the West Coast political branch, because there the reading serves a coalition and a program. A method that already resists evidence resists it harder when a political identity rides on the result. Anton is a product of that branch, which is the most motivated and the most sealed part of the tradition.

Convenient Beliefs

Start with the master one. Natural right is real and knowable. Everything in Anton rests on this. His authority to read the regime, his claim that the founding states a moral truth and not a preference, his standing to say the country is in decline against a fixed standard, all of it presupposes that there is a knowable natural standard and that he has access to it. The amount riding on the belief is total. The amount of scrutiny he gives the belief itself is near zero. He argues from natural right constantly and almost never argues for the proposition that natural right can be known by a man and applied to a regime, because that is the proposition he cannot afford to lose. If natural right is not knowable in the way he needs, he is not a reader of the moral order reporting its dictates. He is a partisan with strong opinions and a good vocabulary. The belief survives by convenience. The cost of doubting it is his whole vocation, and so he does not doubt it.
The regime as a moral and civilizational whole is the second. Anton treats the regime as a thing with a character and a soul, a unity that can keep its confidence or lose it, sicken, decline, and need saving. This is convenient in a precise way. It supplies the object his prophetic role requires. A man can diagnose the decline of a soul and call for its rescue. He cannot do anything so heroic with a loose aggregate of institutions, habits, statutes, and individuals each changing for its own reasons. If the regime is the aggregate rather than the soul, there is no single patient to diagnose and no single rescue to lead, and the tragic register goes flat. Anton never tests whether the regime is the kind of thing that can have a soul, because the test threatens the role the belief makes possible. He asserts the whole because the whole is what he needs to address.
The ruling class as a coherent, hostile, illegitimate agent is the third. Anton’s politics requires that the managerial elite be a unified actor with a shared mind and a will to dispossess his coalition. The convenience runs two ways. It supplies a single enemy that can be named, opposed, and one day broken. And it explains his side’s defeats without requiring his side to look at itself, because the losses become the work of a coordinated adversary rather than the result of his coalition’s own weaknesses. Examining the belief would mean asking whether the ruling class is one agent or many separate people behaving alike for ordinary reasons, and whether his coalition’s decline owes something to its own failures. Both questions are expensive, so neither gets asked. The enemy stays unified because a unified enemy is convenient.
The recoverable hidden teaching is the fourth, and it is the one that pays him most directly. Anton holds that the great writers concealed a true teaching and that the trained reader recovers it. This belief grants him an authority that cannot be checked, since the meaning lives beneath the surface where only the careful reader can see it. That is exactly the kind of belief Turner expects to find protected, because everything Anton does as an interpreter depends on it and nothing he does ever puts it at risk. He cannot test whether his recovered teaching is in the text or in his training, because the test would expose his readings to ordinary checking and strip the privilege the belief confers. So the doctrine stands, untested, doing its work.
Red Caesar and the existential emergency are the fifth. The belief that the crisis is so severe that extraordinary, even extra-constitutional, action is warranted is convenient because it licenses what Anton already wants, a strong executive that breaks the managerial order, while letting him keep the language of constitutional fidelity and regime preservation. The emergency framing relieves him of the harder task of defending the action on ordinary grounds, where it would have to answer to the rules. He does not examine whether the emergency is as total as he says, because the totality is what does the licensing. A smaller crisis would demand smaller measures and ordinary justification, which is the burden the convenient belief exists to remove.
Underneath these sits the oldest one, the belief that the wise few see what the many cannot. It is convenient because it places Anton among the few and turns every objection from outside into evidence that the objector is one of the many who fail to understand. The belief immunizes his judgments against correction. He cannot inspect it, because inspecting it would mean submitting his insight to the same public checking he denies the many, and that is the exposure the belief is shaped to prevent.

Turner Against Essentialism

Turner is a nominalist (a philosopher who believes that abstract concepts do not exist in reality, instead the world only consists of individuals and concrete things) about the social world, and his anti-essentialism is the working edge of that nominalism. The error he hunts is the slide from a noun to a thing. We have the word, so we assume there is an entity, and then we assume the entity has an essence, a defining inner nature that makes it what it is and sets its boundaries. Stephen Turner denies the entity and the essence both. What exists are particulars, individual people with individual habits formed by their own histories, and the apparent essence is a name laid over the scatter plus a back-projection that treats the name as if it pointed to a substance. His second move is sharper and more useful here. Essence claims do political work. To assert an essence is to naturalize a boundary, to take a contingent and contestable line and present it as a discovery about being. That is what he means by the politics of essence. The man who names the essence gets to police the boundary and call the policing metaphysics.
Anton is essentialist nearly all the way down, and the essences are the structural members of his thought. He posits a human nature that is fixed, knowable, and hierarchical, with the high-agency man as a kind of person you can identify by what he builds and the many as another kind fit to consent rather than rule. He posits the nation as a real thing with an identity, the people as a unity with a character. He posits the regime as a moral and civilizational whole with a soul that can keep its confidence or lose it. He posits the West as a civilization with an essence worth preserving. He posits natural right as a real order in the structure of things. And he posits the ruling class as a coherent kind, a managerial elite with a shared nature and a single will. Turner’s response to each is the same. There is no essence there. There is human variety and trained disposition, not two fixed types of man. There is a large population of people with overlapping habits, not a national soul. There is a set of institutions and statutes and individuals each changing for its own reasons, not a regime with an inner life. There is a tradition of texts and practices, not a Western essence. There is what people believe and enforce, not a natural order standing behind it. There is a distribution of similarly trained officials, not a ruling-class mind. In every case the noun has been mistaken for a thing and the thing endowed with an essence it does not have.
Notice that Anton’s internal quarrel runs between two essentialisms rather than between essence and its absence. The Jaffa line holds that America is an idea, a nation defined by an essential proposition in the Declaration. Anton’s later drift holds that America is a people defined by ancestry, religion, and place. Turner dissolves both with one stroke, because both commit the same error. The creedal nation and the blood-and-soil nation are each an essence claim, one locating the essence in a proposition and the other in a lineage, and neither names a thing that has an essence to locate. The fight Anton takes as the deepest question of his tradition is, on this reading, a fight over which essence to assert about an object that has none.
Anton’s essences each draws a line his coalition needs and then presents the line as nature. The essence of the nation decides who is really American and licenses the immigration position. The essence of the regime decides what the country really is and licenses the diagnosis of decline. The essence of human nature decides who is fit to rule and licenses the hierarchy. The essence of the West decides what must be defended and licenses the enemy. Turner’s point is not that these boundaries are wicked. It is that they are constructed and contestable, and that calling them essences is the move by which a man hides their construction and exempts them from argument. You do not debate an essence. You either see it or you are blind to it, which is the same authority structure Anton wants for every one of his claims.
Turner’s Explaining the Normative picks up exactly where the essentialism leaves off. The anti-essentialism removes Anton’s entities. Explaining the Normative removes the bindingness those entities were supposed to generate. Even if you granted Anton a nation or a regime or a human nature, you would still face the further claim that these ground oughts, that natural right obligates, that the founding binds us, that the regime ought to cultivate virtue, that a Caesar would be justified. Turner’s target in that book is normativism, the view that normative facts are basic and cannot be reduced, that a binding ought is a real extra feature of the world over and above what people believe, want, habituate, and enforce. He argues that the appeal to such facts explains nothing. The only evidence for the norm is the behavior the norm is invoked to explain, so the norm adds a circle, not a cause. A naturalist account does the work without the residue. There are habits, mutual expectations, sanctions, and the empirical facts of practice, and the word binding names how those feel from inside, not an additional thing in the world.
Anton’s natural right is normativism in its strongest form, and Strauss is the reason. Strauss made anti-historicism a creed, the insistence that there are permanent questions and permanent normative truths that philosophy recovers and that stand above any age. Turner’s book is the patient naturalist refusal of that creed. Normativity, he argues, is not the kind of thing that has eternal truths waiting to be found. It is a way of talking that converts dispositions into obligations. So when Anton says the founding’s principles bind the living, Turner asks what the binding adds beyond the fact that some Americans were raised to revere those principles and will sanction those who flout them. When Anton says the regime ought to form virtue, Turner asks what the ought adds beyond Anton’s preference and his coalition’s willingness to enforce it. When Anton says the Caesar would be justified, Turner asks what the justification is, in non-normative terms, other than that Anton and his allies want the outcome and would back the man who delivers it. In each case the deflation cashes the binding ought as want plus enforcement, and the word duty turns out to be the honorific a faction gives its own preferences when it wants others to feel obligated by them.
Every strong normativism smuggles in a we. We ought, we are bound, the norm holds for us. The neo-Kantians and the space-of-reasons philosophers, Brandom (b. 1950) and Habermas (b. 1929) among them, try to ground the ought in the conditions of a shared we, and Turner answers that the we is the same illegitimate collective entity his anti-essentialism already rejected. Natural right binds whom? The American people, the regime, mankind. Those are not unified subjects that can be bound. They are populations of separate men. So the binding has no one to bind except by Anton’s say-so, and the say-so is exactly the authority the normative claim was meant to establish. The argument runs in a circle, and the circle is the point. Anton’s moral cosmos, run through both frames, comes apart into two residues and nothing else. The essences become names for distributions of particulars. The oughts become preferences his coalition will enforce. What presents itself as a science of the regime grounded in permanent truth turns out, on Turner’s accounting, to be a set of contingent boundaries called nature and a set of contingent wants called duty.

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The Elon Musk Set

Picture the room first. Elon Musk (b. 1971) sits at the center, and everyone else orients toward him whether they like him or not. The oldest layer comes from PayPal: Peter Thiel (b. 1967), David Sacks (b. 1972), Max Levchin (b. 1975), and on the edges Reid Hoffman (b. 1967), who shares the lineage but broke with the others over Trump and now sits outside the tent. The press calls them the PayPal Mafia, a name from a 2007 Fortune photo shoot that has outlived its joke. They funded each other’s companies, sat on each other’s boards, and treat the early money as proof of a shared eye for the future.
The second layer is the All-In crowd, the podcast that turns a friend group into a public faction. Sacks runs it with Chamath Palihapitiya (b. 1976), Jason Calacanis (b. 1970), and David Friedberg (b. 1980). Sacks went into the White House as AI and crypto czar and stepped down in March 2026, which pulled the whole set closer to state power than a tech show usually gets. Calacanis plays the loud operator, Chamath the contrarian money man, Friedberg the science-and-systems voice. The show gives them a weekly platform to set the terms of the conversation and to launder venture interests into political argument.
A third layer is the venture and founder orbit. Marc Andreessen (b. 1971) and his partner Ben Horowitz run the firm that bankrolls much of the agenda and wrote the manifesto that gave it a creed. Joe Lonsdale (b. 1982) and the Palantir tree, including Thiel, link the group to defense and surveillance contracting. Palmer Luckey (b. 1992) builds weapons and carries the same founder myth into the military supply chain. Garry Tan (b. 1981) runs Y Combinator and fights San Francisco’s left at the city level. Younger operators like Sriram Krishnan, Shaun Maguire, and the writer Mike Solana keep the feeds hot and police the boundaries of who counts as one of us. JD Vance (b. 1984) is the political product of this world, a Thiel hire turned senator turned vice president, and Vivek Ramaswamy (b. 1985) plays a lesser version of the same role.
The fourth layer is the company core, the men and women Musk trusts to ship. Gwynne Shotwell (b. 1963) runs SpaceX day to day and can tell him he is wrong without losing her seat. Steve Davis, his oldest operator, ran the Boring Company and then the cutting at DOGE. Antonio Gracias, his money man at Valor, sits on the boards. These people earn standing by execution rather than by talk.
What they value is building. A man who ships a product, raises a fund, takes the risk with his own name on it, and wins, counts for everything. The verb is sacred. To build is to be real. The opposite of a builder is a parasite: the regulator, the journalist, the academic, the NGO staffer, the diversity officer, the man who lives off the value others create and slows them down with rules he did not earn the right to write. Speed is a virtue. Caution is cowardice dressed up as wisdom. They prize hard technical problems, rockets and chips and reactors and rovers, over the soft work of management and persuasion, even as they spend enormous energy on persuasion.
Their hero system runs on a single story. The world stagnated. A managerial class captured the institutions and made everything slower, more expensive, more timid. A small number of high-agency men can break the stagnation and carry the species forward, to Mars, to abundance, to a longer and richer human future. The hero is the founder who bends reality, absorbs the abuse of the crowd, and is vindicated by the launch that works and the product that sells. Death, in this story, is irrelevance and decline: the firm that gets eaten, the civilization that runs out of children and ambition, the man who plays it safe and is forgotten. Immortality comes through the company, the colony, the lineage, the name on the rocket. This is why pronatalism runs so strong among them. A man’s children are part of his output. The future they want is one they populate.
The status games. Net worth is the first scoreboard, but raw wealth alone earns no respect from inside. The set distinguishes the man who built from the man who merely inherited or invested late. Founding beats funding. A successful exit beats a paper portfolio. Owning the platform, as Musk owns X, beats renting attention on someone else’s. Inside the group, men measure themselves against Musk’s scale and against each other’s proximity to him. Sacks going into the White House raised his standing, and the others felt the climb. Posting is itself a status arena. A sharp thread that goes viral, a fight won against a journalist or a critic, a prediction that comes true on the record, all bank credit. Being canceled by the right enemies pays. Getting ratioed by your own side costs. The poker games, the group chats, the Summit conference, the off-the-record dinners are where the real ranking happens, and inclusion in those rooms is the prize that money alone does not buy.
Their normative claims. Free speech is the highest political good, by which they mean freedom from the moderation regimes they spent the late 2010s losing fights against. Merit should rule, and any deviation from pure merit, any quota or set-aside, is theft and insult. Markets allocate better than states, and the state should get out of the way of the builder. They hold that the elite universities, the legacy press, and the federal bureaucracy form a hostile establishment that lies, gatekeeps, and protects its own, and that tearing it down is a public service rather than a power grab. They frame their own enrichment as aligned with human flourishing: what is good for the builder is good for the species. They prize courage, candor, and the willingness to say the unsayable, and they treat shame and social pressure as weapons the weak use against the strong.
Their essentialist claims. They believe that ability is real, unequal, and largely fixed, that some men are simply built to create and lead and most are not, and that a healthy society sorts people by this fact rather than fighting it. They treat IQ and raw cognitive horsepower as the trait that explains outcomes, and they are willing to extend that claim to groups, which is where the set shades into territory the wider public finds ugly. They hold that human nature is competitive and hierarchical at the root, that the founder-king is a natural type and not a social accident, and that attempts to flatten hierarchy run against biology and end in decline. They believe the species has an essence and a destiny, that man is meant to expand, to multiply, to leave Earth, and that a civilization which loses the will to do these things is dying from a sickness of spirit. The high-agency man, in their telling, is not made by luck or circumstance. He is a kind of person, and you can tell who he is by what he builds.
The set is not monolithic. Thiel reads as darker and more philosophical, drawn to decline and to mimetic theory, where Musk runs on engineering optimism. Friedberg keeps closer to data and further from the culture war. Calacanis chases access and relevance. Hoffman walked out the other side of the same door and now funds the opposition. The Trump alliance strained the group, and Musk’s 2025 break with Trump tested who would follow him out and who would stay tied to the administration. The bonds hold because the men share the founding myth and the enemies, not because they agree on tactics or even on each other. They circle the same center, fight over rank inside the circle, and present a common front to the world they intend to remake.

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The Daniel Lurie Set

San Francisco mayor Daniel Lurie (b. 1977) sits at the meeting point of two San Francisco aristocracies. The first is old Bay Area Jewish philanthropic money. His mother, Mimi Haas (b. 1946), owns a large block of Levi Strauss stock and ran the Mimi and Peter Haas Fund. His stepfather, Peter E. Haas (1918-2005), ran Levi Strauss. The Haas family has donated large sums to institutions across the Bay Area, much of it anonymously. His father, Rabbi Brian Lurie, ran the Jewish Community Federation of San Francisco and later the New Israel Fund. You see the family names on buildings: the Haas School at Berkeley, Stern Grove, the Haas Center at Stanford. This is a class that treats wealth as a stewardship and giving as the proper way to hold standing.
The second aristocracy is new tech and finance money, and Lurie governs through it. His transition team was co-chaired by Sam Altman (b. 1985). His donor and advisory orbit runs through Michael Moritz (b. 1954), Chris Larsen (b. 1960), Ron Conway (b. 1951), the Levchins, Marc Benioff (b. 1964), Jed York of the 49ers, and former bank and Twitter executives like Katherine August-deWilde and Ned Segal. August-deWilde leads Lurie’s Partnership for San Francisco, a coalition of tech and Wall Street figures who give the mayor CEO perspectives on his policies. His administration set up a public-private Downtown Development Corp modeled on New York civic groups, meant to outlast any single mayor. The throughline from Tipping Point, the anti-poverty nonprofit he founded in 2005, to City Hall is the same Rolodex.
What this set values is competence, function, and reputation. They want the city to work. They talk about “the basics”: clean streets, public safety, the fentanyl problem, filling empty offices downtown. They prize results over ideology, data over argument. Lurie cites controller reports and crime numbers rather than making moral cases. They value access and convening power, the ability to get powerful people in a room and make them cooperate. They value discretion as a marker of good breeding, the anonymous gift, the quiet fix. And they value the idea of San Francisco as a global city, a place of art and innovation, which is why the mayor signs sister-city agreements with Shanghai and Seoul and promotes an SFMOMA exhibit.
Their hero is the effective philanthropist-executive. In this world a man earns esteem by founding an institution that visibly helps the poor, by raising and steering large sums well, by solving a problem the political class could not. The admirable figure restores a broken thing to working order and takes his credit through outcomes and standing, not through public combat. Lurie’s whole biography is built as this kind of hero story: the outsider who ran a nonprofit, raised half a billion dollars, and stepped in to fix a city the insiders had failed. The model rewards the man who can pick up the phone and reach Jensen Huang or Marc Benioff. When Trump threatened to send troops, the story Lurie’s people tell is that tech CEOs made the calls that stopped it. The hero, in this telling, is the man with the relationships.
The status games run on access, board seats, and the size and taste of one’s giving. You rise by getting invited into the Partnership, by co-chairing the transition, by funding the right PAC, by sitting on the Tipping Point board, by getting your name on a building. Proximity to the mayor is currency. So is the ability to write a large check toward his charter reforms or his Muni measure. Moritz and Larsen each pledged around two million dollars toward Lurie’s “Clean Up City Hall” effort to reform the charter and increase the mayor’s power. There is a live tension inside the set between old discreet money and loud new money. The Haas style is anonymity. The Benioff style is the public statement, and when Benioffbacked Trump’s troop idea, even Ron Conway went after him in public. The old code reads the loud move as vulgar.
Now the harder layer, the part the set would not say aloud.
Their normative claims are these: the city ought to function, and competence is a moral duty, not a technical one. Wealth carries an obligation to give back. Public safety and clean streets are baseline goods that precede any argument about justice. Pragmatism beats ideology. Private capital should partner with government because government alone cannot deliver. The “Clean Up City Hall” frame is itself a moral claim. It casts insider politics as corrupt and outsider executive competence as virtue. That frame served Lurie well as a candidate and sits awkwardly now, since he governs through a council of billionaires and his administration has already drawn fire for steering a city contract toward longtime donors over a cheaper, higher-rated bidder.
The essentialist claims sit underneath. This set holds that some men are builders and doers by nature, that talent and capacity are real and unevenly given, and that the right people in the room produce good outcomes more or less by their constitution. The CEO perspective is treated as inherently valuable, a kind of native good judgment that government lacks. There is a second essentialism about San Francisco itself, that the city has a true character, innovative and tolerant and global, that decline has obscured and that the right stewards can restore. And there is a quiet hereditary essentialism, the old idea that certain families are stewards of the city by lineage and standing, which is why a man whose chief work experience is philanthropy funded by a denim fortune can present himself as the natural choice to run the place.
The hero story is built on outsider competence and clean hands, but the man is an heir who put in roughly nine million dollars of his own and took another million from his mother, and he rules through the same concentrated money the reform story claims to clean up. The set believes its own competence is disinterested. The record shows that competence and donor interest run together more than the story admits.

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The Dario Amodei Set

Daniela Amodei (b. 1985) represents the AI safety wing of Silicon Valley, a small world that thinks of itself as smaller and more serious than the larger tech industry around it. The core is family and former colleagues. His sister Daniela Amodei (b. 1987) co-founded Anthropic with him, and the founding group walked out of OpenAI together over what the page calls directional differences. Around that core sits a wider circle: AI researchers with physics and neuroscience training, effective altruists and rationalists who migrated into AI from forecasting and philanthropy, and the funders who write nine and ten figure checks. The rivals are also the peers, since this is a world of a few hundred people who switch employers among the same handful of labs. Sam Altman (b. 1985) is the defining other, the man whose company Amodei left and whose board later asked Amodei to replace him. The set defines itself partly against Altman’s OpenAI and against the accelerationist faction around figures like David Sacks (b. 1972).
What they value. Intelligence first, measured young and measured often. The biography is a sorting tournament: Physics Olympiad, Caltech, Stanford, a Princeton PhD in biophysics. This set respects raw cognitive horsepower above charm, salesmanship, or political skill, and it tends to assume that the smartest people in the room should decide the hardest questions. They value the written word as proof of seriousness. Amodei publishes long essays, “Machines of Loving Grace” and “The Adolescence of Technology,” and the set treats a careful essay as a higher form of contribution than a product launch or a tweet. They value being early and being right about something large, especially a danger others missed.
Their hero system, meaning the story about what makes a life admirable. The hero here is the man who sees the catastrophe coming and acts on it before the crowd believes him. The whole self-conception runs on a paradox: build the dangerous thing yourself so that responsible people hold the lead, rather than leaving it to the reckless. Amodei’s stated position captures it, that most people underestimate both how good and how bad AI could be. The admirable figure carries that double knowledge and keeps building anyway, on the theory that the alternative is worse. Walking out of OpenAI is the founding heroic act in this telling, the refusal to compromise that costs you the bigger platform and earns you moral standing. The danger in this hero system, and the set knows critics say it, is that it lets a man claim virtue for doing the thing he wanted to do regardless. You get to build the most powerful technology in the world and call it restraint.
Their status games. Status comes from a few currencies. First, technical credibility, having trained models or written papers that the other researchers respect. Second, the perception that you are the responsible adult in a reckless industry, the lab that does not need to declare a “code red” because it was never cutting corners. Anthropic’s whole brand is a status play of this kind, safety as the premium position. Third, access to capital at scale, and here the numbers are the scoreboard: a $380 billion valuation as of early 2026, Amodei’s own fortune estimated around $7 billion. Fourth, recognition from the old prestige institutions, Time 100, Person of the Year as an “Architect of AI,” testimony before the Senate. The losing move in this set is to be seen as hyping, as choosing growth over caution, as the kind of person who would merge or sell out the mission. Notice the tension: the set competes hard on the same valuations and talent wars as everyone else while claiming the contest is about safety. The claim and the structure pull against each other.
Their normative claims. That advanced AI is coming whether or not anyone likes it, so the responsible course is to build it carefully and keep the lead in trustworthy hands. That democracies must stay ahead of authoritarian states, which is the “entente” idea, a coalition of democracies using AI for decisive advantage while sharing gains with cooperating nations. Amodei names the Chinese Communist Party as the chief threat and warns against a global totalitarian outcome. That the public has a right to be warned, hence the catalog of risks: misaligned systems that deceive and scheme, bioweapons in untrained hands, authoritarian surveillance, mass job loss, wealth concentration past the Gilded Age. The normative core is custodianship. Power over this technology should sit with people wise enough to fear it.
Their essentialist claims. That intelligence is real, measurable, and the thing that matters most, in machines and in men. That AI capability is on a steep and continuing curve, not a fad, so the future is a place of either radical abundance or serious catastrophe and not a muddle in between. That there is a real line between democracies and authoritarian states, and that this line should govern who gets the most powerful tools. That AI models can develop goals of their own, which is why Anthropic reports finding deception and blackmail in its own testing. And underneath it, an old conviction this set rarely states but acts on constantly: that a small group of unusually capable people can understand a civilizational risk that the public and most governments cannot, and that this understanding gives them both the right and the duty to steer.
Amodei warns that AI may displace half of entry-level white-collar work in one to five years and may concentrate wealth beyond anything in living memory, and he is positioned to capture a large share of exactly that wealth. He says the technology might go badly and builds it faster to make sure the right people win. A critic would say the danger talk is the marketing, that fear sells the safe brand and raises the round. A defender would say a man can believe the risk is real and still conclude that his building it is the lesser evil, and that the warnings cost him something with the accelerationist crowd he has to live among. Both can be true at once. The set would tell you the binding thing is responsibility. The structure shows responsibility and self-interest pointing the same direction, which is the most comfortable place for any conviction to sit.

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The Priesthoods of the Bay: High-Status Social Cliques in San Francisco, 2026

San Francisco in 2026 holds a strange position among American cities. It generates capital on a scale no metropolitan economy of its size has matched, and it also generates theories of the future faster than it generates housing. The city runs as a financial clearinghouse, a software empire, a defense workshop, a longevity laboratory, and a seminary for rival doctrines about intelligence, sovereignty, and the human prospect. Its elite no longer fights mainly over zoning fees, gallery boards, and symphony galas, though it still fights over those. It fights over who inherits the next civilization.
The ruling cliques are like competing priesthoods. Each has an admired type of man it elevates, a way of awarding and withdrawing status, a set of enemies it defines itself against, and a claim about human nature that justifies its authority. The factions disagree about nationalism, regulation, biology, and governance. Almost all of them share one premise. They hold that a small caste of cognitive elites should steer social evolution, and that ordinary democratic publics move too slowly, feel too much, and understand too little to be trusted with the transition.
The civic frame around these factions changed in 2025. Daniel Lurie (b. 1977), heir to the Levi Strauss fortune and founder of Tipping Point Community, took the mayoralty from London Breed (b. 1974) and now governs on public safety, downtown reactivation, and partnership with the technology economy. Last autumn the federal government reportedly prepared to send the National Guard into the city, and the deployment fell apart after calls from business leaders, among them Marc Benioff (b. 1964) and the chipmaker Jensen Huang (b. 1963). The episode taught the local elite a lesson it had half forgotten. Political power and private wealth in San Francisco now stand close enough to phone each other in a crisis, and the men who can place that call sit near the top of the order.

The Frontier Intelligence Class

The dominant clique forms around the frontier artificial-intelligence labs and the capital that feeds them. The core firms remain OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI, ringed by the venture houses, the compute brokers, and the chip suppliers that keep the training runs alive. The central figures include Sam Altman (b. 1985), Greg Brockman (b. 1987), Dario Amodei (b. 1983), Daniela Amodei (b. 1987), Ilya Sutskever (b. 1986), Elon Musk (b. 1971), Reid Hoffman (b. 1967), Marc Andreessen (b. 1971), Ben Horowitz (b. 1966), Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick Collison (b. 1988), and John Collison (b. 1990).
This class commands the highest symbolic prestige in the city because it claims stewardship over the defining technical event of the century. Earlier waves of founders sold connectivity, search, and commerce. The frontier labs sell the manufacture of mind. That claim lifts ordinary entrepreneurship toward something closer to cosmology, and the men at the center carry themselves accordingly.
The admired type here is the engineer who also prophesies. The ideal figure joins mathematical depth, founder charisma, fluency with state power, and a cool detachment from conventional moral sentiment. The clique honors men who appear to read historical necessity that the rest of the population cannot see. Sam Altman holds the central seat because he crosses more boundaries than anyone else. He moves between White House rooms, sovereign-wealth negotiations, startup recruitment, and public sermons about machine intelligence, and he holds all of it together in one persona. Dario Amodei plays the rival archetype, the serious scientist who tries to slow the acceleration through alignment research and institutional caution, and his sister Daniela Amodei anchors the same firm on policy and operations. Anthropic now carries a valuation in the range of nine and ten figures that would have seemed deranged five years ago, and the number functions as scripture inside the faction.
Status in this world tracks proximity to the frontier. Prestige flows from access to the best researchers, the largest training clusters, the semiconductor supply, the sovereign compute agreements, and the warmest government relationships. An invitation to a closed AI summit now outranks many elected offices in symbolic weight, and a researcher who can credibly threaten to walk between labs holds more leverage than a midsize founder.
The feuds run hot because the participants believe the prize is control of a post-human passage rather than market share. The defining quarrel sets OpenAI against Anthropic, and beneath the commercial rivalry sits a near-theological dispute over whether intelligence should scale through aggressive deployment or constrained alignment. Anthropic casts itself as the responsible custodian of artificial cognition. OpenAI casts itself as the necessary engine of scale. A second axis divides the accelerationists from the safety camp. The accelerationist wing draws on Andreessen Horowitz, parts of the Musk orbit, the crypto-adjacent venture networks, and the younger founders who fly the e/acc banner, and it preaches that speed is the highest human vocation. The safety wing accepts elite authority and technological inevitability and argues only that unmanaged amplification risks catastrophe. The remarkable feature of the quarrel is how much the two sides share. Both assume a tiny cognitive elite should shape the outcome. They split over tempo and restraint, and that narrow disagreement carries the heat of a schism.

The Sovereign Defense Cohort

A second bloc grew from the marriage of Bay Area engineering culture and American national-security doctrine. It clusters around Anduril Industries, Palantir Technologies, Shield AI, and Scale AI, with the venture muscle of Founders Fund, Lux Capital, and Shield Capital behind it. The leading names include Palmer Luckey (b. 1992), Alex Karp (b. 1967), Peter Thiel (b. 1967), Trae Stephens, and a widening circle of former military officers, intelligence veterans, drone engineers, and Pentagon intermediaries. Michael Kratsios (b. 1986), who has moved between government technology roles and the private sector, sits near the seam between this cohort and Washington.
The cohort owes its rise to the collapse of an older taboo. Through the 2000s many Bay Area elites framed themselves as cosmopolitan technologists with no taste for hard nationalism, and a contract with the Pentagon could end a recruiting pipeline overnight. By 2026 the rivalry with China, the spread of autonomous weapons, the cyber theater, and the militarization of AI had turned defense work into a high-status calling. The men who supply the autonomous systems now carry the glamour that once attached to consumer apps.
The admired type is the warrior who builds. He pairs serious engineering with geopolitical realism and physical discipline, and he has displaced the soft, apologetic coder of the older image. Luckey embodies the shift. He fuses gaming culture, frontier hardware, anti-establishment bravado, and open military romance into a single elite identity, Hawaiian shirt and all. Karp serves as the cohort’s philosopher-executive. He speaks less like a chief executive than like a theorist of civilizational struggle, and he relishes the role.
Status here tracks deployment and access. Prestige flows from Pentagon contracts, from systems fielded in live war zones, from classified briefings, from clearances, and from demonstrated battlefield use. The fiercest feud sets this cohort against the internationalist technologists and parts of the academy. The defense men accuse the globalist executives of strategic naivety and civilizational softness. Their opponents see authoritarian opportunists who convert every advance into permanent security spending. The cohort holds that technological acceleration cannot be stopped and so must stay under American control, and that conflict marks the permanent condition of history, so that any society unwilling to optimize for hard power slides toward decline.

The Pacific Heights Dynastic Order

The old San Francisco aristocracy survives, and it has learned the vocabulary of stewardship and progressive capitalism. The order includes Laurene Powell Jobs (b. 1963), Benioff, Priscilla Chan (b. 1985), Mark Zuckerberg (b. 1984), Michael Moritz (b. 1954), Chris Larsen (b. 1960), John Doerr (b. 1951), Eric Schmidt (b. 1955), and the older families tied to finance, law, land, and civic institutions. It anchors itself in Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Atherton, Hillsborough, Woodside, and the Bohemian Club world, and it keeps long relationships with Stanford, the University of California, San Francisco, the major museums, the journalism ventures, the climate funds, and the national philanthropic machinery.
The admired type is the steward who endures. He has wealth, but wealth alone earns nothing here. He must embed himself in institutions and carry a sense of history, and he wins legitimacy by managing civic continuity rather than by breaking things. Powell Jobs holds an outsized position because she binds media ownership, education reform, philanthropic authority, and political access into one structure of prestige. Benioff presents himself as a civic patriarch and a hospital benefactor more than as a software vendor, and his recent role in steadying the city’s standing with Washington fits the part.
Status in this world tracks legitimacy and cultivation. Board seats carry enormous weight. A private salon that gathers a senator, an AI founder, a university president, and an editor outranks any quantity of social-media reach. The highest figures glide across philanthropy, governance, science, and the arts without losing their footing in any of them. The order’s chief feud runs against the anti-institutional founder right, the parts of the Thiel orbit, the crypto separatists, and the network-state theorists who treat civic obligation as sentimentality. Pacific Heights reads those men as juvenile and destabilizing. They read Pacific Heights as a self-protective managerial aristocracy that hides oligarchy behind moral language. The order holds that concentrated wealth earns its standing through stewardship, and that only the educated and cultivated possess the competence to stabilize an accelerating civilization.

The Lurie Restoration Coalition

The mayoralty consolidated a fourth clique, the coalition of pro-governance urban restoration. It gathers moderate Democrats, the housing activists who march under the YIMBY banner, pragmatic donors, downtown business leaders, and figures such as Moritz, Larsen, Benioff, Altman, and former operators like Ned Segal, who left a senior post at a social-media firm for civic and financial work. The coalition grew from elite exhaustion with the governance of the late 2010s, with the open drug markets, the shuttered storefronts, the fentanyl deaths, the housing paralysis, and the political culture that treated commerce as suspect.
The admired type is the competent operator. The coalition honors men who produce a measured result, a cleared corridor, a permitted tower, a falling overdose count, rather than men who perform virtue. Status tracks access to the municipal machine. Influence over zoning, policing, downtown revitalization, and the new public-private AI partnerships forms the real currency, and a seat at the table where those decisions get made outranks a louder seat anywhere else.
The central feud runs against the activist-progressive world that ran City Hall in the prior era. The restoration camp reads activist maximalism as economically ruinous and administratively incompetent. The progressives read the camp as oligarchic managerialism dressed up as technocratic realism. The coalition holds that cities survive on order, competence, capital, and function, and that complex urban systems require elite coordination rather than populist moral theater. Lurie governs as the embodiment of the claim, and his first year of falling crime statistics and traffic-safety wins gave the faction its proof of concept.

The Network-State Separatists

The most intellectually radical faction treats the nation-state as obsolete infrastructure. It clusters around crypto capital, sovereignty theory, longevity science, and post-national experimentation, and its central mind is Balaji Srinivasan (b. 1980). Adjacent figures include Vitalik Buterin (b. 1994) and the financier Christian Angermayer (b. 1978), along with a scatter of crypto, biotech, and decentralized-governance founders. The separatists view San Francisco less as a sacred community than as a temporary concentration of talent and capital, a launch site rather than a home.
The admired type is the founder of jurisdictions. He creates new regulatory zones, new charter communities, new biological paradigms, or new sovereign digital polities, and he wins honor by building exits from the existing order. Status tracks the capacity to leave. Prestige flows from regulatory arbitrage, offshore trials, decentralized finance, charter zones, and immunity from the constraints that bind ordinary citizens.
The primary feud sets the separatists against the civic-restoration and philanthropic elites. The network-state men read municipal reform as a sentimental attachment to dying systems. Their critics read them as narcissists who extract wealth and abandon obligation. The faction holds that flourishing depends on exit rather than voice, and that high-agency individuals stand in a different relation to sovereignty than the general population.

The Bio-Accelerationist Circuit

A fast-growing prestige system forms around biotechnology, longevity, neural engineering, and biological optimization. The ecosystem runs through the Arc Institute, Retro Biosciences, the research world tied to the University of California, San Francisco, the biotech firms of South San Francisco, and the funding networks of Brian Armstrong (b. 1983), Altman, and Jed McCaleb. The circuit treats biology as programmable infrastructure and frames aging, disease, and cognitive limit as engineering failures awaiting a fix.
The admired type is the scientist who hacks the body with startup speed. He applies the logic of software iteration to living systems, and he honors measurable gains in lifespan, healthspan, and cognition. Status tracks control over genomic data, proprietary therapies, offshore trials, and demonstrated optimization. The feud with the legacy regulators and the bioethicists sharpens by the year. The accelerationists read the Food and Drug Administration and the medical bureaucracy as ruinously slow. Their critics read reckless technocrats who would commercialize human experiment. The circuit holds that extending life and intelligence amounts to a moral duty, and that the human form marks an intermediate evolutionary stage that awaits conscious redesign.

The Rationalist and Effective-Altruist Diaspora

The rationalist and effective-altruist networks lost prestige after the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried (b. 1992) and parts of the crypto world, yet they retain real influence inside Bay Area intellectual life. The diaspora runs through the AI-safety researchers, the probabilistic forecasters, the longtermists, the quantitative donors, and the remnants of the rationalist blogosphere clustered between Berkeley and the city.
The admired type prizes abstract cognition above charisma, looks, or social ease. The ideal figure reasons from first principles and resists tribal feeling, and he wins honor through accurate forecasts, conceptual originality, and refusal to bend under ideological pressure. Status tracks epistemic purity. The feud runs against mainstream political culture, which the rationalists read as emotionally irrational and corrupt at the level of evidence. Critics read a sterile and detached subculture that drifts toward technocratic extremism. The diaspora holds that cognitive differences run real, measurable, and politically consequential, even where egalitarian societies refuse to look at them, and that conviction supplies both its intellectual edge and its recurring scandals.

The Cultivated Connectors

Several tribes meet at a social membrane that the private club called The Battery typifies, along with the curated dinners, the wellness retreats, and the salons that surround it. The crowd gathers founders, AI researchers, venture investors, startup lawyers, media figures, wellness entrepreneurs, designers, philanthropists, and the younger heirs of technology wealth. This world rates aesthetic fluency almost as high as money. Its members mark themselves off from the stereotyped engineer through taste in architecture, food, design, and emotional intelligence.
The admired type is the connector who moves across worlds. He glides between industries and social registers, and he holds value because he can introduce the researcher to the senator and the founder to the donor. Status tracks invitations, intimate dinners, retreats, and the romantic and social alliances that braid through investment and politics. The recurring anxiety of the milieu concerns authenticity, since its members spend a good deal of energy judging whether anyone’s polish reflects real cultivation or mere luxury spend. The world holds that the modern elite must become many-sided and refined, and that technical brilliance without social grace marks an incomplete man.

The Media-Priestly Layer

No elite system survives without men who translate its projects into moral language, and San Francisco depends on a thin layer of writers and intellectuals who perform that office. The figures include Ezra Klein (b. 1984), Noah Smith, Dwarkesh Patel, Tyler Cowen (b. 1962), and Paul Graham (b. 1964), with the institutional support of Y Combinator and Stripe Press behind parts of it. This layer supplies the narratives that let the technological elite justify itself in moral terms. Words like abundance, progress, existential risk, acceleration, and optimization harden into a working liturgy, and the men who coin and circulate them shape which projects feel righteous and which feel reckless. The ruling factions therefore compete not only for capital and contracts. They compete to own the meaning of the age, and the priestly layer is where that contest gets fought in public.

The Shared Creed

Set the factions side by side and the common ground stands out more than the quarrels. The frontier labs, the defense cohort, the dynastic order, the restoration coalition, the network-state separatists, the bio-accelerationists, the rationalists, the connectors, and the priestly writers fight over nationalism, regulation, safety, biology, and sovereignty. They share a creed underneath the fights. They hold that a networked cognitive elite should direct social evolution, and that ordinary democratic processes run too slow, too emotional, and too limited to manage the transition ahead.
The result reads less like a class and more like a fragmented technocratic aristocracy contesting succession rights to the future. The conflicts feel sharp because the participants believe they fight over more than markets and elections. They believe they fight over which priesthood inherits history, and that belief, true or not, organizes the social order of the city.

The Guest List as Spectacle: San Francisco’s Highest-Status Parties and Their Hosts, Late May 2026

The contemporary San Francisco party runs as a coordination system dressed in the clothes of culture, wellness, music, and philanthropy. To file these gatherings under nightlife misreads both their purpose and their composition. The city’s highest-status rooms have little to do with hedonism, celebrity, or spectacle in the ordinary sense. They serve as sites where overlapping technical, financial, political, and cultural elites form alliances, and the alliances they form reach well past the Bay.
San Francisco differs from its rivals on the basic grammar of prestige. Los Angeles still ties standing to visibility and entertainment myth. New York still leans on institutional hierarchy and public recognition. San Francisco runs on informational asymmetry, selective access, and reputational filtration. The marker of standing here has nothing to do with being seen. It has to do with being admitted.
That difference sets the whole atmosphere. The hottest rooms stay nearly invisible to the public. No paparazzi wait outside. Few photographs circulate. Guest lists move through Signal, Telegram, and tight referral chains, and excess visibility reads as evidence of lower rank. The elite gathering therefore cultivates a look of understated importance. A room that appears plain from the street might hold men who direct billions in venture allocation, who control AI infrastructure pipelines, who sit inside defense-procurement systems, or who run the political networks now reshaping the city. The luxury good at the top of this order is invisibility.

The Battery and the Birches

At the center of the system stands The Battery, the private club founded by Michael Birch and Xochi Birch on Battery Street downtown. The club functions as more than a fashionable address. It serves as the principal nexus where post-pandemic Bay Area wealth consolidates itself.
The importance of the Birches rests less on the size of their fortune than on their role as synthesizers. Michael Birch came out of the first wave of internet-platform money through the sale of the social network Bebo. Xochi Birch built a complementary standing as a curator of taste, philanthropy, and hospitality. Together they solved a structural problem that had dogged Silicon Valley wealth for a generation. The technical elite held enormous financial power and lacked the rooted social institutions that integrated older East Coast money into a durable ruling class. The Battery answered that lack on the West Coast.
The club departs from the older establishments, the Bohemian Club and the Pacific-Union Club, on its founding principle. The older institutions ran on inheritance, continuity, restraint, and exclusion by pedigree. The Battery runs on network velocity, entrepreneurial credibility, aesthetic fluency, and selective openness. A member earns entry through demonstrated relevance to the current power structure rather than through lineage. The codes inside reflect the same shift. High-status members display intellectual compression, emotional self-regulation, wellness literacy, and conversational range. A man who brags about his valuation marks himself as insecure. Prestige arrives instead through quieter signals: proximity to a technical breakthrough, a working relationship with a major founder, fluency in AI discourse, an unexpected cultural reference, calm command of an emerging system.
The official programming carries dinners, salon conversations, philanthropic evenings, record releases, art tours, speaker nights, comedy, wellness sessions, and private excursions. The categories often conceal the deeper office of the gathering. A civic allocation dinner can serve as a meeting point for venture capital, City Hall, and an AI infrastructure firm. A wellness conversation can quietly assemble biotech founders, longevity investors, and high-net-worth men running neurochemical optimization regimes. A music event can operate as a screening room where investors take the measure of younger founders judged culturally promising. The city’s elite social system increasingly travels through these layered informal spaces.

The Five Coalitions

Five overlapping coalitions populate these rooms. First, the AI-founder and infrastructure-engineering class, drawn from OpenAI, Anthropic, Scale AI, and the startups that supply the AI economy. Second, the venture and liquidity network orbiting Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, and General Catalyst. Third, the biotech and longevity elite. Fourth, a cultural intermediary class tied to design, electronic music, architecture, and boutique hospitality. Fifth, the surviving old guard connected to legacy finance, law, philanthropy, and inherited Bay Area wealth. The coalitions do not stand apart. The power of the current elite comes from the merger among them, and the party is where the merger happens.

The Midweek Allocative Rooms

Wednesday evenings at The Battery show the allocative face of the culture. The mood turns quiet and managerial. Founders, venture partners, philanthropic intermediaries, attorneys, urban-policy operators, and political donors circulate through dining rooms, rooftop lounges, and semi-private salons. These rooms now overlap with the civic coalition that formed under Mayor Daniel Lurie. The governance crisis of the prior years produced an alliance between technology capital and municipal repair, and elite dinners carry an implicit political charge as a result. Hosting or attending the right gathering signals standing and also signals a part in the reconstruction of the city. That double office helps explain why The Battery sits so near the center. It works at once as social club, political salon, founder incubator, and filter.
The figures who shape these rooms include Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, Sam Altman, and Garry Tan, and their gravity holds even on nights they host nothing. Access to their networks implies access to future capital and institutional leverage, so their mere presence reorders the hierarchy of the room. Tan deserves particular notice. Through Y Combinator, which he leads as president and chief executive, and through an expanding civic role, he occupies the bridge between technical founders, startup myth, and city politics. In February 2026 he formalized that role by launching a political vehicle called Garry’s List, a voter-education and media operation that extends a tough-on-crime, pro-growth program he has pushed for years, alongside the allied spending of groups such as GrowSF. The small dinners that form in YC-adjacent circles often hold fewer than fifteen guests, and those fifteen can include a future billion-dollar founder, a major investor, and a city-policy operator at the same table. Elite influence in San Francisco concentrates in small rooms.

The Weekend Authenticity Theaters

By Friday and Saturday the atmosphere changes. The younger founder and design cohort migrates from the allocative rooms toward what one might call authenticity theaters: electronic-music venues, warehouse-adjacent spaces, and curated nightlife rooms tied to the remnants of the city’s countercultural myth.
The migration carries sociological weight. The young technical elite often fears that its own optimized world has grown sterile and managerial, ruled by engineering teams, venture incentives, and computational rivalry. A night inside electronic culture works as a corrective. It lets a founder hold psychological and aesthetic continuity with the older artistic identity of San Francisco.
The central venue here is Public Works, on Erie Street in the Mission, a multiroom club with a Funktion-One system and a long memory of underground bookings. The venue holds a strategic position because it preserves traces of the old underground while drawing the new AI and venture crowd. Promoter collectives such as Roam Recordings and Sirens LA turn certain weekends into crossover events that braid techno, queer nightlife, design taste, and startup money. When a legacy progressive-house figure such as John Digweed (b. 1967) appears for a Bedrock set, as he does on the club’s late-May calendar, the room takes on a significance beyond ordinary nightlife. Digweed carries symbolic value for the elder millennial and Gen X technical elite because the electronic culture of the late 1990s overlapped with the first Bay Area internet boom. Attendance signals taste and also signals descent from the founding myth of digital California. A booking like The Glitch Mob, also on the current Public Works schedule, resonates inside AI and design circles for the same reason, since their music fused electronic futurism with a cinematic, West Coast texture.
These nights work as rituals of authenticity. A founder who spent Wednesday on compute scaling and chip supply might spend Saturday in a crowded warehouse-adjacent room trying to reconnect with creativity, spontaneity, and anti-corporate feeling. The contradiction sits in plain view, and the participants half intend it. Many of the dancers hold venture backing, draw startup salaries, or build the very systems remaking the city. The floor offers a brief suspension of managerial identity. The same cohort prizes queer and underground-adjacent aesthetics in part because those codes insulate against the charge of corporate conformity and signal openness and range. The underground, meanwhile, grows more financialized by the season. Wealthy founders quietly sponsor afterparties, hold hidden tables, fund promoter collectives, and subsidize warehouse events for their teams. The result reads as venture-backed counterculture.
Temple Nightclub holds a different niche. It runs closer to the high-energy model of Miami, Las Vegas, or Dubai, adapted for Bay Area taste, and it hosts AI-music crossover nights, startup celebrations, and technology-inflected club events. Set beside Public Works, Temple presents itself as more aspirational and more commercially visible, and it still pulls a sizable share of the younger technical elite.

The Private Salons

Outside the formal venues lies the salon system, and some of the most consequential gatherings in Bay Area life happen inside homes rather than clubs. The geography runs across Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Russian Hill, Marin County, Woodside, Atherton, Los Altos Hills, and Palo Alto, and the geography carries meaning.
Pacific Heights salons blend cultural sophistication with venture wealth. The guests might include AI founders, architects, journalists, gallery operators, meditation teachers, biotech investors, and political strategists. The music stays low. The lighting reads as deliberate. Conversation moves between large language models, documentary film, psychedelics, geopolitical risk, and the psychology of relationships. These rooms treat emotional regulation and physical optimization as elite virtues, and the old image of the disheveled engineer running on caffeine and lost sleep no longer governs the upper tier. Bodily discipline now reads as evidence of executive competence. So dinner talk routinely turns to continuous glucose monitors, peptide stacks, sleep metrics, ketamine-assisted therapy, red-light panels, fasting schedules, cold-plunge protocols, personalized supplementation, hormone optimization, and nervous-system regulation. The body has become an optimization frontier set alongside software infrastructure. Sobriety and near-sobriety follow from the same code. Heavy intoxication reads as low status because it suggests a loss of self-command, and many guests drink little or nothing. Precision has displaced abandon as the governing aesthetic.
Down the peninsula, Woodside and Atherton host a fortified variant of the salon. These evenings overlap with defense technology, aerospace, semiconductors, cybersecurity, national-security AI, and infrastructure finance. The mood grows calmer, wealthier, and more operationally serious. Guests can include men tied to government procurement, elite venture firms, and frontier laboratories. The hosts often stay unnamed in public. Invitations travel through trusted personal chains rather than visible branding, digital residue gets minimized on purpose, and in some cases attendance becomes confidential. The discretion reflects a wider change in elite American life. High-value technical actors increasingly read their environment as unstable, shaped by AI rivalry, cyber conflict, surveillance, and political polarization, and so visibility reads as risk while invisibility offers protection.

The Parallel Aristocracy

The Bohemian Club and its summer encampment at the Bohemian Grove show that the older architecture survives. The Bohemian world still gathers major figures from finance, law, energy, politics, and corporate America. It now operates as a parallel aristocracy rather than the governing center of Bay Area prestige. The contrast with The Battery exposes a deeper change in how American elites form. The Bohemian model grew out of industrial capitalism, newspapers, railroads, oil, and inherited establishment authority. The Battery model grew out of venture scaling, software platforms, computational systems, and network acceleration. One order prizes continuity, inheritance, and institutional permanence. The other prizes adaptive intelligence, technical leverage, and network synthesis. The boundary between them keeps blurring. Older money seeks relevance through AI investment and technical alignment. Younger founders seek the stability and legitimacy the older institutions once supplied, and the two reach toward each other across the dinner table.

The Spectacle Is the Room

The San Francisco party system reveals more than nightlife. It reveals a new ruling-class culture organized around information, computation, biological optimization, and controlled access. The hottest party in the city in late May 2026 is not the loudest room. It is the room where the people present hold disproportionate sway over the next generation of technological infrastructure, municipal governance, computational power, and cultural legitimacy. The guest list is the spectacle. And invisibility is the luxury good.

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The Omeed Malik Social Set

Omeed Malik (b. 1979) runs with a set that did not exist in its current form ten years ago. It is the new money of the Trump-aligned right, assembled fast after 2020, and it has its own geography, its own rituals, and its own way of deciding who counts.
Picture the people in the room around him. Donald Trump Jr. (b. 1977), now his business partner at 1789 Capital. Rebekah Mercer (b. 1973) and Chris Buskirk, his co-founders. Tucker Carlson (b. 1969), whose media company took 1789’s first big check. Neil Patel of the Daily Caller. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (b. 1954), whom Malik backed early before the MAGA pivot, and the MAHA crowd that came with him. Bill Pulte (b. 1988), who put Malik on the Fannie Mae board. Chamath Palihapitiya (b. 1976), the SPAC veteran who shares deals with him. The physical headquarters of this world is now the Executive Branch club in Washington, the private room Malik and his partners opened for people who can pay to be near power. The migration from New York and California to Florida is part of the picture too. These men left the old centers on purpose and built somewhere new.
What they value. Money and proximity to power, fused so the two cannot be told apart. The old Wall Street that Malik came from prized discretion and the appearance of political neutrality. A prime brokerage executive at Bank of America kept his politics quiet and let the returns talk. This set inverts that. Here the politics are the product. The phrase that organizes their commerce is the “parallel economy,” anti-woke firms and patriotic marketplaces built for buyers who want their spending to signal a side. GrabAGun, the gun retailer Malik took public, is the pure case. The merchandise is also the flag. They value loyalty over neutrality, conviction over caution, and they treat the willingness to be attacked as evidence that a man is the real thing.
Their hero system. The hero is the man who was pushed out and came back larger. Malik’s own arc is the template the set runs on. Forced out of Bank of America under accusations he denied, he filed a $100 million claim, won an eight-figure settlement, and rebuilt as a founder rather than an employee. Trump is the cosmic version of the same plot, the conviction in New York followed by the election win, the verdict that Malik said would have less than zero impact on his support. The hero in this world does not seek the approval of legacy institutions. He survives their judgment and proves them small. Exile is not a wound here. It is a credential.
Their status games. Status comes from access first and from money second, and the genius of the Executive Branch club is that it sells the first to people who already have the second. Sitting on the Fannie Mae board, placed there by Pulte, is status. Having Trump Jr. choose your firm over a White House job is enormous status, because it says the action is here, with you, not in the administration. The SPAC is a status engine. It lets a man assemble famous names, Trump Jr. and Palihapitiya on one filing, and turn that gathering into a public listing. The currency is whose name appears next to yours. A cameo on Billions counts. A check into Tucker Carlson’s company counts more. The losing move is to be seen as a hanger-on rather than a principal.
Their normative claims. The governing claim is that the elite institutions, the banks, the legacy press, the universities, the corporate HR regimes, turned against ordinary Americans and against the men who built things, and that a counter-elite owes those people an alternative. MeToo sits inside this claim in a tender spot, since Malik’s lawyer became known for representing Wall Street’s accused men, and the set treats certain accusations as the weapon of an illegitimate establishment rather than a reckoning. They claim the right to build their own banks, their own clubs, their own stores, and their own candidates because the existing ones excluded them. They frame self-interest as restoration.
Their essentialist claims. The deepest one is that there are real Americans and there is a managerial class that despises them, and that this division is a fact about the country rather than a passing political fight. They hold that a man’s character is revealed under attack, that the establishment’s hostility certifies authenticity, and that markets sorted by values are truer than markets that pretend to be neutral. Malik’s own biography complicates the cruder versions of this, since he is the son of an Iranian mother and a Pakistani father and once worked as a Democratic spokesman, and the set absorbs that by treating conversion as proof. The convert who saw the establishment from inside and turned against it is more trusted than the man born to the cause.
This is a coalition of recent vintage and recent wealth, and its cohesion depends on Trump. The deals interlock, Pulte invests in Malik’s gun venture and also seats him on a federal board, Trump Jr. anchors the firm and the SPACs, the club monetizes the whole arrangement. Remove the center and the question becomes whether these men have anything binding them beyond access to one family. They would tell you the binding thing is principle. The structure suggests the binding thing might be the principal.

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The Archipelago: High-Status Social Cliques in New York, 2026

New York in 2026 has no ruling class. It has a federation of rival enclaves, each one a court, each one convinced its own currency of prestige is the true gold standard. Finance has money. Fashion has taste. Technology has the new fortunes. Real estate owns the ground. Art turns cash into prestige, and philanthropy turns ambition into virtue. The old Protestant establishment still holds the museum boards and the hospital trusteeships. The downtown set controls relevance. These worlds need each other and resent each other in equal measure, and the most successful figures are the ones who pass between them without belonging to any.
This essay maps the principal cliques, names the people who anchor them, and traces the lines of competition and dependence that bind them together.

The serious club: CORE

At the formal apex sits the Core Club. Jennie Enterprise founded it, and in 2025 she opened a sixty-thousand-square-foot expansion above Midtown, four floors of dining rooms, wellness suites, gallery space, a wine library, and a theater. Enterprise built the place around a single proposition. Wealth alone no longer buys standing. The modern elite want to be seen as serious, curious, cultivated, and Core sells exactly that self-image. It is a coordination point for people who already hold institutional power and want a quiet room to use it in.
The orbit around Core includes financiers and developers and media executives who move between industries without effort. Stephen Schwarzman (b. 1947) of Blackstone belongs to this world. So does Rob Speyer (b. 1969) of Tishman Speyer. Walter Isaacson (b. 1952) supplies the intellectual gloss. Designers like Tory Burch (b. 1966), Bobbi Brown (b. 1957), and Thom Browne (b. 1965) cross over from fashion. Bill Clinton (b. 1946) remains a useful presence, a man who carries institutional memory and contemporary access in the same handshake. Core projects restraint. It frames power as a product of discernment rather than display, and that framing is the whole point.

The downtown court: Zero Bond

Against the seriousness of Core stands the celebrity-technology nexus of downtown, and its capital is Zero Bond. Scott Sartiano and Will Makris opened it at 0 Bond Street in NoHo in October 2020, in a former Brooks Brothers factory, and it became the defining social institution of post-pandemic Manhattan. By 2026 Sartiano had extended the brand with a second outpost at Wynn Las Vegas. The New York room still runs on a rumored fifteen-million-dollar art collection, an omakase bar, and a strict ban on photography.
The guest list reads like a tabloid index. Taylor Swift (b. 1989), Leonardo DiCaprio (b. 1974), Kim Kardashian (b. 1980), Tom Brady (b. 1977), and Elon Musk (b. 1971) have all passed through. Drake held a Barclays Center afterparty there. The club hosted a Met Gala afterparty and gave Musk a room for his own 2021 Met afterparty. The genius of the place lies in what it sells, which is invisibility. The no-phone rule turns privacy into a luxury good. A guest can sit in a room thick with fame and capital and still feel unobserved, and that feeling now costs more than the food.
To the old establishment the downtown scene looks unserious and unstable, a churn of relevance that burns out. To the downtown set the old clubs look frozen, museums of declining authority unable to process twenty-first-century money. Both sides are partly right.

The old guard: the Protestant clubs

The hereditary establishment still exists, and it still holds real power. The Metropolitan Club, which J.P. Morgan (1837-1913) founded, draws multigenerational wealth families, elite attorneys, bankers, trustees, and diplomats. The Knickerbocker Club remains the purest surviving form of hereditary New York exclusivity. The Union Club shelters men who treat publicity as a failure rather than an achievement. Their dress codes and admission rituals exist to repel the striver. Their governing belief is simple. Status should grow quieter as wealth grows larger.
The downtown coalition dismisses these rooms as relics of fading WASP authority. The dismissal misreads where power sits. Elite legitimacy in New York still runs through institutions, and the institutions still answer disproportionately to legacy networks. The real contest between uptown and downtown does not happen in nightlife. It happens in governance.

The governance war: boards and trusteeships

The Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Museum of Modern Art, Lincoln Center, Columbia University, and the New York Public Library have become quiet battlegrounds. Technology executives, private-equity billionaires, and entertainment figures want trusteeships because a board seat converts liquidity into permanence. Existing trustees slow them down with vetting, social filtering, and informal gatekeeping designed to preserve continuity.
The process works like an aristocratic immigration system. New money can enter, but only after it proves cultural discipline, philanthropic patience, and the willingness to assimilate. A check is not enough. The old elite demands a change in behavior, and it grants admission on its own clock.

Fashion and its sovereign

Fashion forms its own power bloc, and for nearly forty years it had a single sovereign. Anna Wintour (b. 1949) ran American Vogue from 1988 until June 2025, when she stepped down as editor-in-chief. She did not retire. She kept her seats as chief content officer of Condé Nast and global editorial director of Vogue, and she installed Chloe Malle (b. 1985), daughter of Candice Bergen and the director Louis Malle (1932-1995), as the new head of editorial content for the American title. Malle reports to her. So does almost everyone else in the building.
Wintour’s authority never stopped at publishing. It runs through philanthropy, luxury branding, museum governance, and political fundraising. The Met Gala, which she chairs, works less as a fashion event than as a global ranking of cultural legitimacy. The 2025 livestream drew over a billion views. Around her orbit move Beyoncé (b. 1981), Nicole Kidman (b. 1967), Jeff Bezos (b. 1964) and Lauren Sánchez (b. 1969), and the heads of the great luxury conglomerates, Bernard Arnault (b. 1949) of LVMH and François-Henri Pinault (b. 1962) of Kering. Fashion in New York runs as symbolic infrastructure for elite coordination across continents.

The newer clubs and the generational split

The dominance of Core and the celebrity gravity of Zero Bond produced a backlash from younger and more mobile money, and a wave of new rooms answered the demand. The Ned NoMad imported London’s Soho establishment style and fused co-working, restaurants, bars, performance space, and hotel rooms into one hybrid built for younger global capital, the private-equity associates and startup founders and crypto operators who find the older clubs too stiff.
Fasano Fifth Avenue runs on a quieter and more international register. Membership comes by invitation and a board of approval, and the room draws Brazilian, European, and Middle Eastern real-estate capital, sovereign wealth intermediaries, shipping magnates, and developers whose deals span São Paulo, Milan, London, Miami, and New York.
The newest entrants raise the price of entry. The Aman Club attached a two-hundred-thousand-dollar initiation fee and a fifteen-thousand-dollar annual charge, a statement that it cares about your balance sheet more than your name. And in 2025 Robin Birley (b. 1958), the man behind London’s most secretive clubs, finally gave New York an outpost, Maxime’s, in the former Westbury Hotel space at 848 Madison. Birley built it for Upper East Side discretion, invitation only, resolutely off Instagram, a dress code closer to Mayfair in 1968 than to downtown in sneakers. Maxime’s is the old guard’s answer to the clubstaurant boom, a bet that the highest status still hides rather than performs.

The international embassy: Casa Cipriani

Casa Cipriani opened in 2021 in the 1909 Battery Maritime Building at the southern tip of Manhattan, named for Giuseppe Cipriani (1900-1980), who founded Harry’s Bar in Venice and invented the Bellini. The club carries a waitlist past four thousand names. It runs on Italian luxury hospitality, harbor views, cryotherapy chambers, a jazz cafe, and a no-phone rule that promises wealth a life outside the camera. European financiers, developers, luxury executives, and globally mobile heirs use it as a social embassy. Gigi Hadid and Leonardo DiCaprio have been spotted leaving together. Taylor Swift held a membership and reportedly dropped it after a photo leak.

The art hierarchy and its enemies

Art runs a parallel hierarchy, and the dealers sit at its center. Larry Gagosian (b. 1945) and David Zwirner (b. 1964) broker the relationships among billionaires, museums, artists, luxury houses, and investment capital. Collecting culturally validated art now signals taste and a kind of geopolitical sophistication at the same time.
The independent art world holds this financialization in contempt. A standing quarrel divides the glamour economy of Casa Cipriani and the Midtown billionaire dinners from the smaller galleries, the nonprofit spaces, the publishing circles, and the artist networks of the Lower East Side, Chinatown, and Brooklyn. During Frieze New York and the Met Gala season the split shows in physical space. Collectors and luxury houses throw spectacular dinners on the waterfront and in Midtown, while younger tastemakers hold rival gatherings in warehouses and lofts whose exclusivity depends on their being hard to find.
The relationship runs symbiotic and adversarial at once. Collectors need tastemakers to tell them what deserves prestige. Tastemakers need patrons to keep the institutions alive. Each side resents the other and cannot do without it.

The hidden floor: real estate and sovereign capital

Beneath all the visible courts lies the deepest layer of power, and it rarely shows its face. Developers, zoning attorneys, family offices, and sovereign wealth intermediaries form the governing architecture under the social spectacle. The names attach to Related Companies, Tishman Speyer, Brookfield, SL Green, and Silverstein Properties, and to capital vehicles tied to Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Singaporean, and Canadian institutional wealth. Their meetings happen in penthouses and Hudson Yards hospitality suites, not in nightclubs.
Their fights look technical from outside and feel intensely personal from inside. Air rights, rezoning approvals, tax abatements, pension allocations, and sovereign capital relationships produce rivalries that last decades. Philanthropy and political giving often serve as instruments of territorial war rather than charity. This layer stabilizes everything above it. Fashion, hospitality, galleries, museums, and nightlife all rest on land, debt, and capital flow.

The brokers

The great law firms remain quiet coordination centers for corporate America, Wachtell Lipton, Paul Weiss, Skadden, Sullivan and Cromwell, Cravath. Around them move crisis managers, executive recruiters, political consultants, and wealth advisors who pass between rival factions while keeping their own faces out of the press. Some of the most powerful people in New York are socially anonymous brokers whose influence comes from sitting at the center of information rather than from fame.

The governing aesthetic

The city no longer resembles a pyramid with one class at the summit. It resembles a competitive federation of high-status enclaves, each trying to universalize its own values while depending on the rest for legitimacy. The old establishment holds the institutions. The downtown coalition holds cultural velocity. Finance holds liquidity. Fashion holds aesthetic legitimacy. Technology supplies new fortunes. Real estate holds the ground. Art converts wealth into prestige, and philanthropy converts ambition into civic virtue.
The figure who wins this arrangement moves through all of it and stays captive to none. In New York now the highest status lies not in maximum visibility but in selective omnipresence, the art of appearing everywhere that matters while staying publicly hard to pin down. That balance between access and concealment has become the governing aesthetic of power in the city.
The contemporary art world and elite media are premier validation chambers where raw capital transforms into social legitimacy.
Thelma Golden. The Director and Chief Curator of the Studio Museum in Harlem occupies a vital conversion node. She holds immense cultural authenticity and institutional authority. Golden moves seamlessly from elite corporate boardrooms and uptown philanthropic galas to downtown artist studios and international biennials. She arbitrates aesthetic legitimacy for ultra-high-net-worth collectors who require her validation to ensure their wealth looks public-spirited rather than predatory.
David Zwirner. Finance wealth, tech wealth, Gulf wealth, entertainment wealth, and inherited dynastic wealth all require cultural conversion mechanisms. Zwirner operates one of the central conversion nodes. He is neither celebrity nor plutocrat in the conventional sense. Yet billionaires circulate through his spaces to acquire symbolic legitimacy. He exists simultaneously inside the art world, luxury architecture, institutional philanthropy, publishing, and European intellectual society.
David Remnick. As editor of The New Yorker, Remnick sits at the center of institutional media amplification. He preserves a reputation for intellectual detachment while navigating every center of power in the city. He moves between old-establishment literary circles, Wall Street donor networks, tech summits, and Broadway corridors. His presence provides a serious, high-status imprimatur to any room, yet he avoids permanent attachment to any single corporate or political faction.
Wendy Deng. Media moguls, tech billionaires, political elites, fashion networks, and art patrons all intersect within her orbit. She is not institutionally anchored in the old sense. Her power derives from social mobility across sectors. That flexibility became more valuable after the collapse of unified establishment culture.
Dasha Zhukova. She sits at the intersection of global art finance, Russian oligarchic capital networks, Silicon Valley adjacency, media fashion culture, and institutional philanthropy. Figures like Zhukova matter because New York increasingly functions less as an American city than as a sovereign node inside a global prestige archipelago. The city’s upper tiers are now deeply internationalized. Their marriages, boards, schools, and investment structures span London, Miami, Tel Aviv, Paris, Aspen, Los Angeles, and the Gulf.
Capital and sovereignty brokers operate at the intersection of international statecraft, sovereign wealth, and Manhattan real estate.
Blair Effron. The co-founder of Centerview Partners is a premier example of the financier as a cross-domain diplomat. Effron transcends pure investment banking by positioning himself at the center of national Democratic political fundraising, cultural board leadership (including the Metropolitan Museum of Art), and academic governance. He operates as a trusted consigliere to corporate CEOs, media moguls, and political elites, maintaining a quiet but formidable presence across the entire institutional apparatus.
Marc Lasry. The co-founder of Avenue Capital Group demonstrates how distressed-debt investing can leverage access into sports, media, and global diplomacy. Lasry moves between sovereign wealth funds, the NBA ecosystem, elite political circles, and downtown entertainment networks. He uses his liquidity to purchase cultural and civic assets, maintaining a highly calibrated form of visibility that grants him access to disparate courts without absorbing their specific liabilities.
Daniel Loeb. Officially he is finance. In practice he long ago transcended pure hedge-fund identity. Through collecting, philanthropy, political relationships, board influence, and strategic patronage of cultural institutions, he built a hybrid role. He appears in the worlds of contemporary art, education reform, Hamptons social capital, institutional Jewish philanthropy, and elite media. Unlike the old Wall Street titans who remained trapped within finance, Loeb cultivated aesthetic legitimacy and intellectual associations. He moves between uptown institutional wealth and newer downtown creative-financial hybrids.
Transnational connectors include:
Stavros Niarchos III. Descendant of the Greek shipping dynasty, Niarchos embodies the updated model of inherited symbolic capital. Married to Dasha Zhukova, his social architecture joins European dynastic lineage, vast global maritime fortune, elite contemporary art patronage, and Silicon Valley venture capital networks. He maintains strict privacy and minimal public visibility, yet his presence anchors the most exclusive private gatherings where transnational wealth coordinates with cultural tastemakers.
Fabiola Beracasa Beckman. Operating as a creative director, film producer, and specialized event architect, she serves as a vital bridge between old-world fortune and high-velocity cultural production. Beckman moves through high fashion, contemporary art institutions, film finance, and heritage philanthropy. She structures the physical spaces and social rituals where diverse elites interact, allowing her to retain complete social flexibility without ever being tied to a single corporate entity.
Other operators include:
Jed Walentas. The CEO of Two Trees Management possesses an elite form of controlled permeability. By anchoring his real estate empire in the transformation of neighborhoods like DUMBO and Williamsburg, Walentas built a bridge between old-line real estate capital and downtown cultural velocity. He operates within municipal political structures, education reform, and elite philanthropic boards, maintaining a low public profile while holding substantial sway over both the physical ground and the cultural character of the city.
Michael Rubin. He represents the newer American model where sports, celebrity culture, private equity, fashion, gambling, and music collapse into one integrated elite network. His Hamptons white parties became major coordination rituals for entertainment executives, athletes, tech founders, and finance operators. Unlike old New York hosts, Rubin embraces visibility, but he still maintains enough ambiguity to avoid becoming reducible to influencer culture. He acts as connective tissue between hip-hop prestige systems, NBA culture, venture capital, and luxury consumption markets.
Lauren Santo Domingo occupies fashion, art patronage, old New York social legitimacy, luxury commerce, and media simultaneously. Through Moda Operandi and her social positioning, she became a bridge figure between old Manhattan wealth and digitally accelerated luxury capitalism. She appears continuously within elite circulation while maintaining a surface impression of restraint and privacy. That restraint itself has become a major status marker in New York’s upper ecology.
Jean Pigozzi. He is a collector-host-social broker figure whose primary role is assembling highly heterogeneous elites into temporary social proximity. In fragmented prestige systems, he creates zones where finance, art, media, diplomacy, and aristocratic remnants can gather.
Nicky Hilton Rothschild. Symbolic capital still matters in Manhattan. But its function has changed. Old family names no longer dominate the city outright. Instead they serve as stabilizing legitimacy overlays for newer wealth coalitions. Nicky Hilton Rothschild moves between fashion, hospitality dynasties, European aristocratic branding, luxury commerce, and newer celebrity networks without becoming tabloid-saturated in the Kardashian mode. That disciplined partial visibility is critical.
Patti Smith. Certain older downtown cultural figures maintain enormous prestige because they symbolize authenticity within a city dominated by financialization. Smith functions as a kind of sacred cultural relic for artistic New York. Presence near such figures grants aesthetic legitimacy to younger elites trying to avoid appearing purely transactional.

Who Throws the Room: New York’s Hottest Parties and the People Who Host Them, 2026

The party in New York no longer means the nightclub. The velvet rope, the celebrity table, the line as performance, all of that belonged to a century when visibility made prestige. The logic has inverted. The most coveted rooms in 2026 minimize exposure, because the smartphone turns every gathering into potential content and every guest into a possible leak. The new party sells trust rather than excitement, and the host who can guarantee trust holds the real power. Naming the hosts, then, names the scene.

The operators: Scott Sartiano and Will Makris

Zero Bond remains the gravitational center, and its proprietors are the men who built the model. Scott Sartiano and Will Makris opened the club at 0 Bond Street in NoHo in 2020, and by 2026 Sartiano had carried the brand to Wynn Las Vegas. What Sartiano sells is not hospitality in the ordinary sense. He sells filtration. He understood early that the billionaire, the founder, the hedge-fund principal, and the pop star all live under constant surveillance, and that a room which lowers the odds of random exposure becomes a defensive tool against overexposure.
The proof of the model showed at the 2026 Met Gala afterparty cycle, which ran past dawn. Sartiano gave his room over to a disco-themed party billed as “S&M After Dark,” hosted by Sabrina Carpenter (b. 1999) and Madonna (b. 1958), the two having performed together at Coachella. The guest list ran from Margot Robbie (b. 1990) and Kendall Jenner (b. 1995) to Stevie Nicks (b. 1948), Diplo, Adrien Brody (b. 1973), and the Met’s honorary chairs and primary donors, Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez. The host’s name on the door tells you where you stand inside the overlapping hierarchies of relevance and liquidity.

The fashion court: Anthony Vaccarello and Zoë Kravitz

The single most star-dense party of the 2026 Met night belonged to Saint Laurent, hosted by the house’s creative director Anthony Vaccarello (b. 1979) and the actor Zoë Kravitz (b. 1988) at People’s Bar. The two also chaired the Met Gala host committee that year, so the afterparty extended their daytime authority into the dark. The room held Leonardo DiCaprio, Katy Perry (b. 1984), Rosé, Charli XCX (b. 1992), SZA, Doja Cat (b. 1995), Mick Jagger (b. 1943), and a surprise drop-in from Olivia Rodrigo (b. 2003), who had skipped the carpet entirely. The fashion afterparty works as a second ranking, finer than the gala, because the brand chooses the room and the brand chooses the guests.

The cinematic salon: Baz Luhrmann and Catherine Martin

A different register of glamour gathered at Monsieur, where Baz Luhrmann (b. 1962) and his wife and collaborator Catherine Martin (b. 1965) assembled a crowd that mixed entertainment capital with old-world cosmopolitan style, Hunter Schafer (b. 1998) among them. Luhrmann hosts the way he directs, for atmosphere and theater rather than for tabloid density, and the room draws people who want cinema rather than spectacle.

The doorman as host: Frankie Carattini

Some rooms run on the man at the threshold rather than the names inside. Laissez Faire, the low-lit microclub tucked down an alley beside the Beekman Hotel in the Financial District, marked only by a purple neon sign, depends on Frankie Carattini, a veteran of the city’s nightlife who took over the door and brought his regulars with him. Carattini sets the terms. Get a table, be patient, be polite, do not arrive in work clothes, do not ask how long the wait is, and do not act entitled. The host here is not a celebrity but a gatekeeper, and his judgment at the entrance is the whole product. The room manufactures secrecy through architecture, the descent, the hidden entry, the compressed interior.

The dinner that becomes the party: Jean’s

The structural shift of the moment is the dissolution of the line between restaurant and nightclub. Jean’s, on Lafayette Street, runs an upscale bistro upstairs and an electric club below, and the dinner crowd melts into the dancing crowd as the night deepens. The motto, “Not open unless you are,” states the ethos. Continuity is the point. The same vetted faces carry from the table to the floor, which preserves trust and keeps the late-night randomness that high-status guests now avoid. No single celebrity hosts Jean’s. The room hosts, and the curation of who gets a table does the work a doorman used to do.

The listening club: Stylus

The younger creative elite wants something other than celebrity concentration, and Stylus answers them. Opening on the Lower East Side at 48 Clinton Street, in a four-story building that once housed a recording studio used by Patti Smith and Joey Ramone, Stylus is a private members club built around sound. Its founders, described as medical entrepreneurs and art-world veterans, capped membership at 750. The architecture comes from O’Neill Rose Architects. The central listening room carries a sound system designed by Devon Turnbull of OJAS, capable of shifting the room’s acoustics from intimate jazz club to cathedral. A cellar lounge asks guests to remove their shoes and offers 40-hertz sound therapy. The Michelin-starred chef Anita Lo (b. 1965) runs the kitchen.
Stylus signals a generational break. For the founders, the Substack writers, the documentary producers, and the music-adjacent venture investors under forty, prestige now runs through demonstrated taste rather than through proximity to fame. The high-fidelity room, the Japanese vinyl bar, the restored industrial interior, these mark cultivated distinction. The party here is a media laboratory as much as a social event, a place where the recording suite sits beside the lounge and where ideas diffuse outward through podcasts and newsletters after they form in the room.

The enduring chaos: The Box

Not every coveted room runs on discretion. The Box, on Chrystie Street, remains the most unpredictable space in the city, part cabaret, part nightclub, part burlesque fever dream. It survives the relentless cycle of trends because it refuses curation. Decadence functions as the prestige there, and the unpredictability that the engineered rooms work to eliminate is the entire draw. The Box is the counterexample that proves how thoroughly the rest of the scene has organized itself around control.

The houses without a marquee

The most consequential parties may not happen in any venue at all. The ultra-wealthy increasingly entertain inside Tribeca penthouses, Upper East Side townhouses, and West Village compounds owned by hedge-fund managers, technology founders, and art collectors. These gatherings operate beyond the reach of hospitality infrastructure, beyond the doorman and the membership committee, and they often eclipse the commercial rooms in actual influence. The host here owns the building, and ownership is the final filter. The same evening can hold an AI-policy adviser, a sovereign wealth representative, a campaign bundler, a media founder, and a crypto investor, which makes the private party a kind of informal diplomacy.
The thread runs through all of it. The old nightlife economy sold the thrill of being seen. The new one sells the safety of not being seen, and the host’s job has become the management of trust. Sartiano sells a secure operating system. Vaccarello and Kravitz sell the brand’s blessing. Luhrmann sells cinema. Carattini sells his own judgment at the door. Stylus sells acoustic literacy. The penthouse owner sells the building. In every case the party is a sorting room, and the person who controls the door controls the hierarchy that forms inside.
The most powerful hosts understand that they curate social legitimacy rather than entertainment. What looks from outside like partying runs underneath as an organized system of elite circulation, and the guest list is the document that records it.

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The LACMA Social Set

Michael Govan (b. 1963) runs the kind of world where a man can fly his own small plane, spot an abandoned Nabisco factory from the air, and turn it into a museum. He did that at Dia:Beacon. He keeps a 1979 Beechcraft Bonanza at the Santa Monica airport and has held a pilot’s license since 1995. He earned close to two million dollars in 2024, which makes him the highest-paid museum director in the country. He hangs, by one Washington Post headline, with Leo and Kanye, and he once paid ten million for a rock. The rock is Michael Heizer’s (b. 1944) Levitated Mass, a 340-ton boulder he hauled a hundred miles to Wilshire Boulevard with a street party at the end. This is the set. The museum director sits at its center, and around him gather the trustees, the collectors, the star architects, the land artists, and the movie people who want to stand near all of it.
The lineage runs through Thomas Krens (b. 1946), the Williams College mentor who took Govan to the Guggenheim at twenty-five and built Bilbao. Krens taught the model the set still lives by: the museum as global brand, the building as the masterpiece, the director as impresario. Govan carried it to Los Angeles in 2006, after ten other people turned the LACMA job down, and spent twenty years pursuing the Peter Zumthor (b. 1943) building that opens this April as the David Geffen Galleries. Frank Gehry (b. 1929), Renzo Piano (b. 1937), Zumthor, these are the names the set reveres, the architects whose signatures convert a county museum into a destination. James Turrell (b. 1943) and Heizer supply the other pole, the artists who carve light and earth out in the desert on a scale no gallery can hold, and Govan lobbied Washington to wrap a national monument around Heizer’s City.
What do these people value? Scale and permanence, first. The set does not want a good show. It wants a building that will outlast the man who raised the money for it, a thing future generations cannot ignore. They value the transformation story, the before-and-after, the dead factory reborn, the sleepy county museum turned into the fourth most Instagrammed in the world. They value the company of artists, and the director who can call Turrell or Heizer a friend ranks above the administrator who only manages a collection. They value taste rendered as vision, the capacity to see in 2003 what a town will become in 2020. And they value money, though they speak of it as stewardship, because the whole apparatus runs on the gifts of the very rich, and the director’s first art is the art of the ask.
The hero is the visionary builder. Not the curator who knows the most about Magritte, and not the bureaucrat who balances the budget, but the man who imagines a thing that does not exist and wills it into concrete. Govan tells this story about himself with relish. He recalls staring into the La Brea Tar Pits and thinking of the Chauvet cave paintings, the origins of human creativity, and deciding the spot was a good place to smash the Cartesian grid. The hero speaks like this. He reaches for Édouard Glissant (1928-2011) and decolonization and unconscious memory to explain a building, because the heroic act must be framed as more than construction. It must be framed as a break with history. The set rewards the man who can make a museum sound like a cosmology.
The status games run on a few moves. The signature building is the largest chip, and a director who lands a Gehry or a Zumthor has played at the highest table. The acquisition is another, the donated masterpiece, the doubled collection, the rock that becomes a pilgrimage site. The artist friendship is its own currency, photographed and circulated, because proximity to a living genius confers a glow that no MBA can. Then there is the donor, the trustee whose name goes on the wall, and the courtship of that donor is a status game played on both sides, the rich man buying immortality and the director granting it. Brad Pitt (b. 1963) once stood up at a county supervisors meeting to praise Zumthor’s mastery of light and shadow, and spoke so long an official told him to wrap it up. That moment is the set in miniature, glamour lending itself to architecture, everyone borrowing shine from everyone else.
Now the shoulds. The set holds that great art demands great spending and that a city deserves a monument worthy of its ambitions. They hold that the old museum was a colonial instrument, the encyclopedic grid a tool of conquest, and that the new museum should break the timeline, dissolve the departments, and let the visitor wander a park of his own making. Govan says he told Zumthor he did not want anyone in the front, that the building should avoid linear histories. This reads as humility and democracy. It also lets a director discard the scholarly departments that might check him and concentrate the vision in one set of hands. They hold that access and attendance prove virtue, that 1.6 million visitors and a top Instagram ranking justify the project against its critics. And when the workers move to unionize, as the LACMA staff did this past fall, the set holds that the matter should go to a formal vote rather than voluntary recognition, which is the moment the language of community meets the reality of who signs the checks.
The essentialist claims sit at the bottom. The set believes that vision is a gift, that some men simply see what others cannot, and that this sight licenses them to override the curators, the critics, and the donors who object. Govan’s career is the argument. The boy who won an art contest, whose portfolio an art teacher noticed at Sidwell Friends, who served as acting curator as an undergraduate, becomes the man entitled to smash the grid because the gift was there from the start. They believe in the artist as a higher kind of person, the maker of City and Roden Crater as a figure touched by something close to the sacred, which is why the director seeks to stand beside him. They believe great art is universal and timeless, that a cave painting and a Picasso speak the same tongue across thirty-five thousand years, and this faith makes the global, departmentless, ocean-themed museum feel like a return to human truth rather than a curatorial gamble. And they believe, quietly, that their own taste is not opinion but perception, that they do not prefer the Zumthor building, they see that it is right, while the critics who call it a concrete blob or a freeway overpass simply lack the eyes. The comfort of the set is the comfort of the visionary. The building costs more than promised, holds less art than before, loses its largest donor, and drives its architect to swear off the country, and still the director can stand inside it and feel that he was the one who saw.

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The San Vicente Bungalows Set

The website tells you the whole ethic. No photographs of faces. No names. No prices. A nomination from a current member is obligatory, and a nomination confers nothing, because the Membership Committee decides each month who gets in. Three doors only: West Hollywood, Santa Monica, the West Village. The page sells you nothing and explains nothing, and that is the pitch. San Vicente Bungalows, the club Jeff Klein built off his Sunset Tower hotel, runs on the oldest luxury there is, which is the luxury of being kept out.
This set is the working entertainment elite plus the people who orbit it. Studio chiefs, agents, showrunners, actors with real careers rather than rented fame, the lawyers and managers who handle them, a layer of tech and finance money that wants proximity to the picture business, and a thin crust of fashion and media. It is the crowd that used to drink at the Chateau Marmont before the Chateau became a place you could photograph. Klein read that exactly. He took their phones away. The famous rule at SVB is that you cannot use a camera or shoot video in the public rooms, and staff enforce it. The members pay a fee to enter a space where no one will post them. That single rule is the founding promise.
What do they value? Discretion above all, because discretion is what their money cannot otherwise buy. A movie star can buy a house, a jet, a table at any restaurant in town. He cannot easily buy a room where no stranger films him and no one asks for a selfie. SVB sells that room. They value the absence of the tourist, the absence of the striver, the absence of the phone. They value a curated sameness, the comfort of looking up and seeing only people who belong to the same world. They value taste rendered as restraint, the low lighting and the garden and the menu that does not try too hard. And they value the committee, the unseen hand that keeps the wrong people out, because a club is only as good as the people it rejects.
Their hero is the insider who needs nothing from the public. The set divides the world into people who perform for the crowd and people who are simply known by the right few hundred. The hero stands in the second group. He has arrived to the point where he no longer hustles, no longer posts, no longer explains himself. He walks into the bungalow and the room registers him without a word. The aspiration is a kind of weightlessness, fame without exposure, power without the camera. Klein himself is a minor hero of this story, the host who understands them, the man who designed the cage that protects them and made it feel like a home.
The status games are quiet, and the quietness is the point. The first game is admission. To be a member is the move, and members let it be known in the soft ways, a casual mention, a guest brought through the door. The second game is the guest. You may bring people in, and whom you bring signals your standing, so the invitation becomes a small act of patronage. The third game is recognition inside the walls, who greets whom, who sits where, which table the staff treat as the center. Because phones are banned and no record leaves the room, the games run on memory and presence rather than posts, which suits people who have learned that the internet is a threat. There is also the meta-game of seeming not to care, the studied ease of the man who acts as though the club is merely convenient, when his membership cost him real effort to obtain.
Now the shoulds. The set holds that privacy is a right that scales with importance, that serious people doing serious work deserve a space free of surveillance and free of the public’s claims on them. They hold that exclusion is not cruelty but curation, that a room improves as you remove people, and that the committee performs a service by saying no. They hold that the public square has grown coarse and dangerous, full of cameras and grievance, and that the answer is retreat into private rooms among one’s own kind. This last claim feels defensive and reasonable from the inside, and it doubles as a justification for sealing themselves off from everyone below them. They would say they are protecting the work and the family. They are also building a wall.
The essentialist claims sit beneath the décor. The set believes that some people are simply of the world and most are not, that belonging is a quality a man either carries or lacks, legible on sight to those who share it. The committee runs on this faith. It does not score applicants on a rubric. It feels whether a person fits, which assumes that fit is a real and detectable essence rather than a verdict the powerful invent and then discover. They believe taste is inborn and uneven, that the capacity to appreciate the low light and the unmarked door separates the members from the people who would want flash and a velvet rope. And they hold a quiet belief that their own prominence is deserved, that the talent and judgment which earned them the picture business also earn them the bungalow, so the club becomes proof of an order that was already true. The comfort of SVB is the comfort of confirmation. You walk in, the door closes behind you, and the room tells you that you are the kind of man who was always meant to be inside it.

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