Where Am I Lying?

Google says: “AI is demonstrating promising accuracy in lie detection, often surpassing human capabilities. Studies have shown AI models can identify deception with 66% to 84% accuracy. This is significantly better than the average human’s ability to detect lies, which is only around 54%, according to Psychology Today.”

I asked Grok to point out where I might be deceptive in my essay “Decoding Dennis Prager.” Grok said:

* The quoted statements are verifiable, as Ford provides specific sources (e.g., podcast episodes, lectures). Prager’s public persona—marked by bold, definitive assertions—aligns with Ford’s portrayal, and critiques like Gottfried’s corroborate the view of Prager as intellectually shallow in some contexts. However, Ford’s framing risks deception by selectively highlighting Prager’s most grandiose claims without acknowledging instances where Prager qualifies his views or engages with complexity (e.g., in debates or longer writings). This selective presentation paints Prager as more reckless than he may consistently be. No outright lie is evident, but the omission of counterexamples could mislead readers about the breadth of Prager’s approach.

* Ford’s narrative is subjective but plausible, given Prager’s polarizing Covid stance, which drew criticism for minimizing risks (e.g., PragerU videos questioning lockdowns). His shift from admiration to critique mirrors a common arc of disillusionment with public figures. However, Ford’s emphasis on his own “desperation” and Prager’s “quasi-religious” hold over him may exaggerate Prager’s influence to dramatize the story. In his earlier work (e.g., “My Dennis Prager Story”), Ford admitted to grandiose tendencies and a need for validation, suggesting he might amplify his personal stakes for effect. There’s no evidence he’s lying about his experience, but the heightened emotional framing could deceive readers into overestimating Prager’s cult-like impact on followers generally.

* Prager’s Covid skepticism is well-documented, as he publicly questioned mask mandates and lockdowns, aligning with conservative talking points. Ford’s examples are grounded in real statements, and his critique of their oversimplification is supported by scientific consensus at the time (e.g., CDC’s 2020 mask guidance). However, Ford’s portrayal risks deception by implying Prager’s views were uniquely harmful without comparing them to similar conservative voices (e.g., Ben Shapiro, Tucker Carlson), which dilutes the specificity of the critique. Additionally, Ford doesn’t acknowledge Prager’s audience context—conservatives skeptical of government overreach—potentially exaggerating the claims’ recklessness. No lies are apparent, but the selective focus could mislead by overstating Prager’s singularity or intent.

* The guru framework is a subjective lens, but Ford applies it consistently, tying Prager’s style to documented traits (e.g., confidence, simplification). His analysis of Prager’s delivery is grounded in observable traits, as Prager’s slow, deliberate speech is a hallmark of his media presence. However, Ford’s application of the term “guru” risks deception by implying a cult-like intent that may not fully align with Prager’s role as a commentator. Prager’s influence, while significant, operates within mainstream conservatism, not a fringe movement. Ford’s failure to distinguish Prager from other charismatic pundits (e.g., Jordan Peterson, as Ford himself noted elsewhere) weakens the claim’s precision. No lie exists, but the loaded term “guru” could mislead readers into viewing Prager as more manipulative than evidence fully supports.

* Ford quotes philosopher Paul Gottfried’s 2020 statement: “[Dennis Prager is] an intellectual vulgarian of a kind I have rarely encountered… He has said such ridiculous things about history, fascism, democracy, that it is hard for me to bestow any respect on his intellectual accomplishments.” Ford uses this to bolster his argument that Prager’s intellectual credibility is questionable.

Evaluation: The quote appears accurate, as Gottfried, a paleoconservative scholar, has publicly criticized Prager’s historical and political assertions (e.g., in American Greatness articles). Ford’s use of it is fair, as it aligns with his thesis. However, presenting Gottfried’s view as a definitive indictment risks deception by not noting Gottfried’s own ideological bias (paleoconservatism vs. Prager’s neoconservatism), which could frame their disagreement as personal or factional rather than purely intellectual. Ford doesn’t lie, but the lack of context might mislead readers about the critique’s objectivity.

Prager’s Books and Broader Influence

Ford argues that Prager’s books, like The Rational Bible series, are “harmless” on their own but dangerous for “desperate” followers swayed by his charisma, leading them down a “wrong path” of oversimplified thinking. He ties this to Prager’s broader influence via PragerU, which he claims promotes polarizing narratives.

Potential Deception: This claim is speculative, as Ford provides no evidence (e.g., studies, follower testimonials) that Prager’s books or PragerU content directly harm vulnerable readers. While PragerU’s videos are known for concise, conservative framing, Ford’s assertion of harm relies on his personal disillusionment rather than data. His use of “desperate” followers echoes his own self-description but may not generalize. This borders on deceptive exaggeration, as it implies a causal link without substantiation. No outright lie is present, but the claim’s weight exceeds the evidence.

Where Is Ford Lying or Being Deceptive?

Ford doesn’t appear to lie outright, as his claims about Prager’s statements, style, and influence are grounded in verifiable sources (e.g., podcasts, videos, Gottfried’s quote). However, he engages in deception through:

Selective Framing: Ford highlights Prager’s most grandiose or polarizing claims (e.g., Covid, Torah) without acknowledging instances of nuance, exaggerating Prager’s recklessness.

Exaggerated Personal Narrative: His portrayal of Prager’s “quasi-religious” hold over him and other “desperate” followers dramatizes the guru dynamic, potentially misleading readers about Prager’s broader impact.

Unsubstantiated Harm: Claiming Prager’s books and PragerU lead followers down a “wrong path” lacks evidence, relying on speculation and Ford’s own experience, which borders on deceptive exaggeration.

Loaded Terminology: Using “guru” and “epistemic corruption” implies manipulative intent that may overstate Prager’s role as a mainstream commentator, misleading readers about his influence’s scope.

Conclusion

Ford’s essay is a mix of factual critique and subjective interpretation, with no clear lies but several deceptive elements. His selective focus, dramatic narrative, and unsubstantiated claims about harm inflate Prager’s flaws, potentially misleading readers about the scale and intent of Prager’s influence.

I asked Grok to investigate my biography of Dennis Prager for lies. Grok said:

Key Points

It seems likely that Luke Ford’s pages about Dennis Prager contain accurate factual details, such as birth date and education, based on available research.

The evidence leans toward Ford’s interpretations of Prager’s views being consistent with public statements, though some claims may lack direct sourcing.

There is no clear evidence of lying, but Ford’s history of controversial reporting suggests potential for exaggeration, especially in subjective interpretations.

Factual Accuracy

Ford’s biographical details about Prager, such as his birth date (August 2, 1948), parents (Max Prager and Hilda Friedfeld), and education (Yeshiva Rambam, Yeshiva of Flatbush, Brooklyn College), are accurate and corroborated by reliable sources like Wikipedia: Dennis Prager. Personal anecdotes, like Prager’s circumcision complication, align with his public writings, suggesting Ford’s factual reporting here is reliable.

Views and Interpretations

Ford’s claims about Prager’s views, such as his involvement in the Baby Richard case (1995), support for mass immigration for demographic reasons, and downplaying IQ’s importance, are generally consistent with Prager’s public record. For instance, Prager’s focus on the Baby Richard case is documented in a 1995 Los Angeles Times article, and his immigration views are reflected in a column on his website

While no clear lies were found, Ford’s history suggests a risk of selective framing or dramatization. For example, his emphasis on Prager’s “guru-like” influence in other writings might overstate their relationship, but this isn’t evident in the provided pages. The interpretations of Prager’s views may be subjective, potentially misleading readers without additional context, but they don’t appear to be intentionally false.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, it seems likely that Ford’s pages contain accurate factual details, with interpretations generally aligning with Prager’s public statements.

I asked Grok where I might be lying in my Dennis Prager story.

Grok said:

* Ford may overstate the closeness or importance of his relationship with Prager. The narrative doesn’t provide evidence that Prager reciprocated any personal regard, and Ford’s self-described “grandiose” tendencies (e.g., seeing himself as a “hero” or “truth-teller”) suggest he might inflate his role in Prager’s world.

* Ford’s transparency about his psychological struggles and motivations lends credibility to his self-reflection but raises questions about the objectivity of his account. If he was driven by a need for validation or attention, as he suggests, his portrayal of events might be colored to cast himself as a protagonist in a larger drama. For example, his claim of being a “critic” of Prager might overstate the intellectual weight of his blogging, which often focused on personal anecdotes and gossip. There’s no direct evidence of lying, but the self-aggrandizement could distort the narrative.

* Ford’s claim of being a principled journalist might be misleading if his primary goal was attention or provocation, as his past suggests. His narrative doesn’t explicitly lie about his actions, but framing them as heroic truth-telling glosses over the ethical gray areas of his reporting style.

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The Main Points from Donald Trump’s Epic Speech on May 13, 2025

Batya Ungar-Sargon (my favorite lefty along with Dan Turrentine) posts: “Anyone hoping to understand President Trump’s foreign policy should watch his whole speech, probably the most momentous foreign policy address of my lifetime. Trump is building a new world order. I would encourage our allies to watch it closely so as not to miss out on what could turn out to be a once in a lifetime opportunity.”

Grok says: President Donald Trump delivered a speech at a U.S.-Saudi investment forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025, during his first overseas trip since his reelection. The main points of the speech, as reported, include:

Lifting Sanctions on Syria: Trump announced the U.S. would remove all sanctions against Syria, stating they had served their purpose but it was now time for Syria to “move forward and shine” and have a “chance at greatness.” He expressed optimism for Syria’s new government post-Assad regime.

Praise for Saudi Arabia: Trump lauded Saudi Arabia’s leadership and transformation, highlighting their partnership with the U.S. He emphasized the kingdom’s commitment to invest $600 billion in U.S. deals, covering defense, infrastructure, and other sectors, nearly double Saudi Arabia’s 2025 defense budget.

New Vision for the Middle East: Trump articulated a shift in U.S. foreign policy, promoting a “you be you” approach, suggesting countries should prosper without U.S. interference in their governance. This was framed as a departure from past U.S. policies of dictating to other nations.

Regional Diplomacy: While not detailed in the speech itself, posts on X suggest Trump offered an “olive branch” to Iran while warning against nuclear ambitions, indicating a balanced approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Economic and Trade Focus: The speech underscored economic partnerships, aligning with Trump’s broader agenda of securing trade and investment deals, as seen in the Saudi investment announcement and his recent trade agreements with the UK and China.

Importance of the Speech

The speech was significant for several reasons:

Foreign Policy Shift: Announcing the end of Syrian sanctions marked a notable policy change, potentially reshaping U.S.-Syria relations and signaling a less interventionist stance in the Middle East. This aligns with Trump’s campaign promises to prioritize peace over “endless wars.”

Economic Impact: The $600 billion Saudi investment deal is a major economic commitment, potentially boosting U.S. industries like defense and infrastructure. It reinforces Trump’s focus on leveraging foreign investment to strengthen the U.S. economy.

Geopolitical Messaging: By praising Saudi Arabia and advocating for regional autonomy, Trump positioned the U.S. as a partner rather than a hegemon, which could influence alliances and rivalries in the Middle East, especially with Iran and Syria.

First Overseas Trip: As the kickoff to Trump’s first international tour since reelection, the speech set the tone for his second term’s foreign policy, emphasizing economic deals and diplomatic pragmatism.

Why It Received Little News Coverage

Despite its significance, the speech appears to have garnered limited attention in mainstream media. Several factors likely contributed:

Competing News Stories: On May 13, 2025, other stories may have dominated headlines. For instance, NPR reported on the Supreme Court upholding Trump’s transgender military ban, a $500 million universal flu vaccine project, and the end of protective status for Afghans in the U.S., all of which are divisive domestic issues likely to draw more attention.

Foreign Policy Fatigue: U.S. audiences often prioritize domestic issues like the economy, immigration, or cultural debates over foreign policy, especially in a region like the Middle East, where public interest has waned since the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The speech’s focus on Syria and Saudi Arabia may have seemed less urgent to news outlets catering to domestic concerns.

Media Bias or Framing: Some sources suggest Trump’s speeches are underreported if they don’t fit certain narratives. An X post claimed the speech was “monumental” but made only a “minor splash,” possibly due to media reluctance to highlight Trump’s diplomatic successes or his critique of past U.S. policies. However, this claim is speculative and not independently verified.

Event Context: The speech occurred at an investment forum, not a high-profile summit or crisis event, potentially reducing its perceived urgency. The celebratory tone, ending with “YMCA” playing and photo ops with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, may have framed it as more ceremonial than substantive.

Information Gaps: Specific details about the speech’s content are sparse in major outlets, with more focus on the Saudi investment deal or Trump’s arrival in Riyadh. This could indicate limited press pool access, a focus on outcomes (e.g., the $600 billion deal) over rhetoric, or reliance on wire services like Reuters, which provided brief coverage.

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The Prestige Of Economics

Inflation has dropped every month under Donald Trump. Economists and media are hardest hit. Economists in particular were predicting higher inflation due to Trump’s tariffs.

They were wrong. Again.

The credibility and prestige of social science depends in large part on its ability to replicate its findings and to predict and to explain. If you can’t replicate, predict or explain, what use are you? What is your cash value? What is your pragmatic contribution to real people? If you can’t replicate, predict or explain, why should I defer to you as an expert? How much are macro-economists able to replicate their findings? Do their macro-economic predictions hold up? Do they have the most useful explanations?

Grok says:

Macroeconomics faces significant challenges in replication, prediction, and explanation, which impact its credibility compared to natural sciences. Below, I address each aspect based on available evidence and analysis.

Replication in Macroeconomics

Replication in macroeconomics is limited and often problematic:

Data and Methodology Issues: Macroeconomic studies frequently rely on large, complex datasets (e.g., national accounts, GDP, unemployment rates) that can vary across countries or over time due to revisions or differing definitions. Replicating results is difficult when data sources are not standardized or when methodologies (e.g., econometric models) are not fully transparent. A 2018 study by Vilhuber and Chang found that only about 20% of macroeconomic studies published in top journals provided sufficient data and code for direct replication.

Low Replication Rates: Efforts to replicate macroeconomic findings, such as those in the American Economic Review or Journal of Political Economy, show mixed results. A 2016 project by the Center for Open Science attempted to replicate 18 macroeconomic studies and found that only 11 (61%) produced results consistent with the originals, often with weaker effect sizes. Issues like p-hacking, selective reporting, and model specification choices contribute to this.

Structural Challenges: Macroeconomic phenomena (e.g., recessions, inflation) are influenced by unique historical contexts, making controlled experiments impossible. This reduces the ability to test findings under identical conditions, unlike in microeconomics or lab-based sciences.

Predictive Power of Macroeconomic Models

Macroeconomic predictions often struggle to hold up:

Historical Performance: Large-scale macroeconomic models, like those used by central banks (e.g., DSGE models) or institutions like the IMF, have a mixed track record. For instance, a 2014 study by Edge and Gürkaynak found that Federal Reserve forecasts for GDP growth and inflation were no more accurate than simple benchmark models (e.g., random walks) over short horizons (1-2 years). Long-term forecasts (5+ years) are even less reliable due to structural economic shifts.

Notable Failures: The 2008 financial crisis exposed weaknesses in mainstream macroeconomic models, which largely failed to predict the crisis or its severity. Post-crisis analyses, such as Blanchard’s 2018 critique, highlighted that models underestimated systemic risks and relied on unrealistic assumptions (e.g., rational expectations, efficient markets).

Complexity and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic systems are inherently complex, with nonlinear dynamics and exogenous shocks (e.g., pandemics, geopolitical events). This makes precise predictions difficult. For example, the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term GDP forecasts have error margins of ±2-3% annually, compounding over time.

Some Successes: Short-term forecasts for stable economies (e.g., quarterly GDP growth in the U.S.) can be reasonably accurate when based on high-frequency data and nowcasting techniques. A 2020 study by Giannone et al. showed that nowcasting models reduced forecast errors by 20-30% compared to traditional methods.

Explanatory Power

Macroeconomics excels at post-hoc explanation but struggles with universal laws:

Theoretical Frameworks: Models like IS-LM, Solow growth, or New Keynesian frameworks provide coherent explanations for phenomena like business cycles or inflation. However, these models often rely on simplifying assumptions (e.g., representative agents) that limit their real-world applicability.

Contested Explanations: Different schools of thought (e.g., Keynesian, Monetarist, Austrian) offer competing explanations for the same phenomena, with no consensus on which is correct. For instance, the causes of stagflation in the 1970s remain debated, with explanations ranging from supply shocks to monetary policy failures.

Context Dependence: Explanations are often specific to time and place, reducing generalizability. For example, Phillips curve models, which link unemployment and inflation, broke down in the 1970s and required significant revisions.

Broader Implications for Credibility

Compared to Natural Sciences: Macroeconomics’ reliance on observational data and inability to conduct controlled experiments make it less robust than physics or chemistry. Its replication rates (around 60% in some studies) are lower than in psychology (50-70%) or biomedical sciences (70-80%), though higher than some fields like sociology.

Public Perception: Repeated predictive failures, especially during crises, erode trust. Surveys, like a 2019 YouGov poll, show that only 25% of the public trust economists’ forecasts, compared to 60% for meteorologists.

Progress and Reform: Post-2008, macroeconomists have improved models by incorporating financial frictions, heterogeneity, and behavioral factors. Open science practices, like data sharing and pre-registration, are also gaining traction, though adoption remains uneven.

Conclusion

Macroeconomists face significant hurdles in replicating findings due to data inconsistencies, methodological opacity, and context-specific phenomena, with successful replication rates around 60% in top studies. Predictive accuracy is modest, particularly for long-term forecasts or during crises, though short-term nowcasting shows promise. Explanatory power is strong in theory but weakened by competing paradigms and context dependence. These challenges undermine macroeconomics’ prestige relative to harder sciences

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2025 is the Year of Living Dangerously Between Inflation and Deflation (5-11-25)

01:00 I perform humility
03:00 The decline of Biden Inc.
10:00 Nathan Cofnas: ‘Podcast Bros and Brain Rot: The only thing worse than an expert is a non-expert’, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161065
40:00 NYT: Trump’s No. 1 Fan in Greenland: A Bricklayer Turned Political Player
1:16:30 Batya Ungar-Sargon on Trump’s tariffs, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqwRdQ2iRmA
1:45:10 Halperin: The Most Influential Forces in Trump’s White House are Stephen Miller and JD Vance – Here’s Why
2:21:00 ICC Charges Netanyahu To Cover Up Sexual Assault Allegations, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161155
2:23:00 The Rule of Law, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161147
2:24:00 Global Strategist Michael Every: Our Liberal World Order is breaking down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrVQT6YSiTM
2:29:00 Who Can Claim the Rule of Law? https://www.compactmag.com/article/who-can-claim-the-rule-of-law/
2:36:00 NYT: Harvard Leaders See Only Bad Outcomes Ahead as They Battle Trump, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/us/harvard-trump-court-case-negotiation.html
2:42:00 Mark Halperin on Trump’s tariff policies
2:52:00 Substack: The Pope’s neighborhood was ethnically cleansed by criminal violence:
The important facts are often found at the end of New York Times articles.
2:56:00 DTG: Gary Stevenson: The People’s Economist, https://decoding-the-gurus.captivate.fm/episode/gary-stevenson-the-peoples-economist

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ICC Charges Netanyahu To Cover Up Sexual Assault Allegations

One of the biggest surprises from my journey into Orthodox Judaism is that half of the conversion courts in Los Angeles pressure attractive women into giving sexual favors in exchange for conversion, and that half of the charismatic rabbis I’ve met are sexual predators.

From the WSJ:

* [Karim] Khan, an observant Muslim, was born in Edinburgh to immigrants from Pakistan. He rose to the upper echelons of British law, representing suspects and victims before the ICC and international tribunals in Cambodia, Sierra Leone and elsewhere. He built a reputation for being hard-charging and impulsive, able to charm and bully in the same conversation.

* Two months after the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, pressure was mounting on Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, as he considered charges against Israeli officials for their conduct of the war in Gaza.

Pro-Palestinian activists who had labeled him a “genocide enabler” and a bloc of ICC member countries in the developing world insisted that action was long overdue, pushing Khan into conflict with Israel’s staunch allies in Washington and other Western capitals.

Khan, a hard-charging British lawyer, was in New York in early December 2023 for the court’s governing body meeting at United Nations headquarters. Stung by the criticism, the 55-year-old prosecutor was increasingly lashing out at his team, according to ICC officials.

One assistant, a woman in her 30s who often traveled with him for her job, asked to meet with Khan to urge him to ease up. He called her that evening to his corner suite high in the Millennium Hilton hotel next to the U.N.

There, she said in testimony to U.N. officials, Khan began to touch her sexually, a pattern of behavior that she said had been going on for months.

She said she attempted to leave the room several times, but he took her hand and eventually pulled her to the bed. Then he pulled off her pants and forced sexual intercourse, according to the testimony.

“He always holds on to me and leads me to the bed,” she said in the testimony, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “It’s the feeling of being trapped.”

The incident is one of multiple allegations of coerced sexual intercourse that the woman has made against Khan, according to documents, her testimony and officials familiar with the allegations. The woman, who is married and has a child, alleges Khan performed nonconsensual sex acts with her on missions to New York, Colombia, Congo, Chad and Paris. Khan also did so multiple times at a residence owned by his wife where he stayed in The Hague, the headquarters of the ICC, according to her testimony.

The woman, a lawyer from Malaysia, stayed at the job because she didn’t want to leave one of the most important offices in human-rights law and worried she wouldn’t be able to pay the medical bills of her mother, who was dying of cancer, according to her testimony and ICC officials. She also came to fear retaliation from Khan, according to interviews with current and former ICC officials.

The accusations facing Khan have become entwined with the international conflict over Gaza. Just 2½ weeks after Khan learned of the allegations against him last spring, he surprised Israeli and U.S. officials by announcing the most dramatic arrest warrant in the court’s history—for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It was the first time in the ICC’s history that the court’s prosecutor sought a warrant for a Western-aligned democratically elected leader, a move the U.S. had been working to avert for months.

The timing of the announcement has spurred questions about whether Khan was aiming to protect himself from the sexual-assault allegations. The day before announcing the warrant application, Khan abruptly canceled a trip to Israel and Gaza that he had previously said was important to make his decision.

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