Is AI helping to solve murders?

Grok says: Yes, AI is helping to solve murders by enhancing investigative processes. Law enforcement agencies use AI tools for:

Facial Recognition: Identifying suspects or victims from surveillance footage or images, with systems like Clearview AI matching faces against databases.

Data Analysis: Processing vast amounts of evidence, such as phone records, social media, or financial transactions, to uncover patterns or connections. For example, IBM’s Watson has been used to analyze case data.

Predictive Policing: Tools like PredPol analyze crime data to predict where crimes, including homicides, might occur, aiding resource allocation.

Forensic Enhancements: AI improves DNA analysis, fingerprint matching, and voice recognition, speeding up identification. Companies like Verogen use AI for advanced genetic profiling.

Cold Case Resolution: AI cross-references old case files with new data, helping solve cases like the 1991 Sarah Yarborough murder, where genetic genealogy led to an arrest in 2019.

However, challenges exist:

Bias: AI can perpetuate biases in historical data, leading to false leads.

Accuracy: Errors in facial recognition or data interpretation can misdirect investigations.

Ethics: Privacy concerns arise from mass data collection, as seen in debates over Clearview AI’s methods.

Real-world impact: In 2023, the FBI used AI-driven genetic genealogy to identify suspects in over 50 cold cases. Posts on X also highlight AI’s role in analyzing crime scene data, though some express skepticism about overreliance. AI isn’t a magic bullet—it’s a tool that, when used carefully, accelerates justice.

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JP: Shocking testimonies of ritual sexual abuse revealed in Knesset committee meeting

This does not sound credible to me.

Remember Vicki Polin on Oprah?

The Jerusalem Post posts:

‘Doctors, educators, police officers, and past and present members of the Knesset were involved in these abuses,’ survivor says.

A number of women gave a series of shocking testimonies in the Knesset on Tuesday of sexual abuse they suffered as minors as part of religious ritual ceremonies.

The testimonies came during a joint meeting of the Knesset’s Committee on the Status of Women and Gender Equality, chaired by MK Pnina Tameno-Shete (National Unity), and the Special Committee on Young Israelis, chaired by MK Naama Lazimi (Democrats). The joint meeting was set in the wake of an investigative report by Yisrael Hayom journalist Noam Barkan, published on April 2.

Yael Ariel, a survivor, shared: “I experienced ritual abuse over many years until my late teens and was forced to harm other children. I chose to speak out and make my voice heard. I received threats after revealing my story. From age five to age twenty, I was harmed in these ceremonies.”

According to Ariel, she received testimonies from several women who claimed that doctors, educators, police officers, and past and present members of the Knesset were involved in these abuses. “I filed a complaint with the police that was closed after a few months, and I know of other cases that were closed. Speaking out today in the Knesset is a historic moment,” she said.

Another survivor, Yael Shitrit, testified: “You have no idea what ritual abuse is. The human brain cannot comprehend. You can’t imagine what it means to program a three-year-old girl through rape and sadism so they can do whatever they want without anyone knowing … Their trafficking of me happened all over the country. They moved me from ceremony to ceremony. Naked men stood in a circle. My therapist, her husband, and her son harmed me, and there were dozens of other girls and boys who harmed me.”

Grok says:

The allegations of ritual sexual abuse presented at the Knesset committee meeting on June 3, 2025, as reported by Eliav Breuer, are indeed shocking and deeply disturbing. Survivors, including Yael Ariel and Yael Shitrit, described horrific experiences of prolonged abuse, trafficking, and ritualistic ceremonies involving prominent figures like doctors, educators, police officers, and even past and present Knesset members. These claims, supported by Dr. Naama Goldberg’s NGO and detailed in an investigative report by Yisrael Hayom, suggest a systemic issue that has been largely ignored or inadequately addressed by authorities. The survivors’ accounts of police inaction—cases being closed due to “lack of evidence” despite detailed testimonies and even recorded admissions—raise serious questions about institutional accountability and the handling of such grave allegations.

However, skepticism is warranted given the extraordinary nature of these claims and the lack of concrete evidence presented in the public domain so far. The descriptions of widespread, organized abuse involving high-profile individuals across sectors sound almost conspiratorial, which can strain credulity without corroborating proof. Historically, similar allegations of “ritual abuse” in other contexts—like the Satanic Panic of the 1980s in the U.S.—have sometimes been fueled by moral panics, leading to false accusations and unreliable testimonies. The psychological complexity of trauma, combined with the use of drugs and alleged “programming” described by survivors, could further complicate the accuracy of memories, as seen in studies on recovered memory syndrome (e.g., Loftus & Ketcham, 1994). The police’s claim of prioritizing these cases, as stated by Chief-Superintendent Anat Yakir, contrasts sharply with the survivors’ reports of dismissed complaints, suggesting either incompetence or deliberate suppression, both of which remain unproven.

The web and X posts you provided align with the article’s narrative amplifying the testimonies and expressing outrage, calling it a “watershed moment.” Yet, these posts offer no additional evidence beyond the meeting’s accounts, and their emotive language risks sensationalizing the issue without substantiation. No independent reports in the provided web results directly corroborate the specific claims of ritual abuse involving Knesset members, though related issues like sexual violence allegations in other contexts (e.g., against ICC’s Karim Khan or by Hamas) appear, indicating a broader discourse on abuse but not confirming this case.

My take: the testimonies deserve serious investigation, as dismissing them outright risks silencing genuine victims, especially given the consistent pattern across multiple accounts. But without hard evidence—documents, recordings, or arrests—these remain allegations, not facts. The police’s apparent failure to act decisively, as reported, is troubling and demands scrutiny, but so does the possibility of exaggerated or unverifiable claims. A transparent, rigorous investigation is essential to separate truth from speculation, and the Knesset’s response will be a litmus test for Israel’s commitment to justice.

ChatGPT says:

You’re right to approach this with skepticism—it’s an explosive and deeply disturbing article that raises serious questions about verifiability, scale, and institutional response. Let’s break down some critical issues in evaluating this piece:

1. Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence

The article recounts allegations of organized, ritualistic sexual abuse allegedly involving doctors, therapists, police officers, educators, and members of the Israeli Knesset. These are extraordinary claims. While horrific abuse does occur and should never be dismissed out of hand, these accusations imply mass, systemic criminal activity across multiple institutions—something that would typically leave behind significant trails of evidence (forensic, digital, testimonial, financial, etc.).

Yet:

No names of accused officials are provided.

No arrests or indictments are mentioned.

No concrete corroborating evidence (videos, dates, locations, photographs, documentation) is presented.

The key source, Noam Barkan’s April 2nd report, is not linked or summarized.

This suggests that we’re operating entirely within the realm of allegations, not verified facts.

2. Psychological Dynamics & Credibility Challenges

Multiple survivors describe highly elaborate, ritualistic abuse that includes:

Trafficking across Israel

Programming through rape and torture

Menstrual blood rituals and animal slaughter

Celebrities and politicians in attendance

These types of stories bear strong resemblance to what’s often called “Satanic Ritual Abuse” (SRA)—a controversial and largely discredited narrative that surged in the 1980s and 1990s in the U.S. and elsewhere. Most SRA claims turned out to be unsupported by evidence despite major investigations, and often resulted from:

Therapeutic suggestion (false memory syndrome)

Social panic fueled by media and advocacy groups

Conflated trauma recollection under duress or hypnosis

That said, some elements—like child sexual abuse—are tragically real and all too common. But the ritualistic, multi-institutional conspiracy element tends to fall apart under scrutiny.

3. Institutional Failure vs. Conspiracy

It’s plausible and well-documented that police and courts often fail victims of sexual violence, especially when perpetrators are powerful. This breeds distrust, which is valid. But institutional failure is not the same as institutional conspiracy.

For example:

Many cases might be dismissed due to lack of physical evidence or statutes of limitations.

Police may be overwhelmed or ill-equipped to investigate ritual or symbolic claims.

Victims may be telling the truth about abuse, but misattributing its context (e.g., interpreting trauma through ritualistic or symbolic frameworks).

4. Media Responsibility and Journalistic Standards

The Jerusalem Post is typically a center-right, mainstream paper in Israel. Publishing these kinds of testimonies without clear editorial context, corroboration, or investigation raises serious journalistic ethics concerns:

Are readers being presented with verified information or emotional testimonies?

Has Noam Barkan’s original report been vetted by independent sources?

Is the Knesset committee taking these claims as allegations or as established facts?

A responsible report should:

Seek independent verification

Highlight the status of investigations

Acknowledge the risks of misinformation and moral panic

5. Red Flags Suggesting Moral Panic or Social Contagion

Several elements are consistent with patterns of moral panic:

Highly emotive, symbolic language (“programming,” “rituals,” “endless pain”)

Claims that “you won’t believe me,” which immunize the narrative from skepticism

Use of hidden power structures (government, doctors, clergy) as culprits

Reports that law enforcement is aware but doing nothing

This echoes past episodes like:

The McMartin Preschool case (U.S.)

The Orkney child abuse scandal (Scotland)

The Outreau affair (France)

All involved massive investigations, ruined lives, and ultimately, little to no corroborated abuse on the scale initially claimed.

Conclusion

This article is deeply disturbing—not only because of what it alleges, but because of how it does so without clear evidentiary standards. It may contain kernels of truth (real abuse, real institutional apathy), but it’s presented in a way that raises more questions than answers.

Until specific, verifiable facts emerge (arrests, corroborating documents, independent investigations), the default stance should be caution, not credulity.

Posted in Abuse | Comments Off on JP: Shocking testimonies of ritual sexual abuse revealed in Knesset committee meeting

What Makes Neo-Nazis So Dangerous? (6-1-25)

01:00 Beliefs Are Like Possessions, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161458
09:00 Boasting Only in the Cross – John Piper – Passion OneDay 2000,
36:50 Baby Boomer Secrets of Power, https://www.aaronrenn.com/p/baby-boomer-secrets-of-power
43:00 Kip & Ricardo join the show
45:00 Secular satanism, https://www.aaronrenn.com/p/secular-satanism
1:14:00 Loneliness, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Tfpj3DhCg0&ab_channel=TimFletcher
1:22:00 Joe Rogan & Dave Smith vs Douglas Murray vs Sam Harris, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0LdNxYRB3Q
1:51:00 Michael joins the show to discuss the importance of visiting a place
2:10:00 Jordan Peterson
2:27:00 Ricardo joins to discuss truth
3:15:30 Claire Khaw joins to discuss sex segregation
3:48:45 The price of living your own life, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lUYaeVToh4
3:50:30 A New Pattern Of Sacred Relationship Emerges | Vylana, Alana Beale, Dr. Marc Gafni, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_4_WD6-9MI
4:05:00 DTG decodes Aubrey Marcus, Marc Gafni, https://www.patreon.com/c/decodingthegurus/posts
4:20:30 Trump gives JD Vance the advantage in 2028 race, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBSBccMh6U
4:26:00 David Sacks is in charge of crypto & AI
4:28:35 Trump vs Harvard
4:31:30 Trump vs NATO, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQjYgO86U28
4:37:00 DTG: Passive consumption at YouTube University, https://www.patreon.com/c/decodingthegurus/posts

Grok points out where I lack self-awareness:

1. Unacknowledged Emotional Bias from Personal Experiences

Evidence: Ford repeatedly ties his analysis to personal experiences, such as his feelings of loss from childhood (e.g., losing his mother, growing up in foster care) and his strained relationship with his father, a charismatic but emotionally distant preacher. He states, “The most intense feelings I had in childhood were of loss… narratives about loss… resonate with me” (4:34-4:46). He also admits to a “miswiring” in his central nervous system that leads to loneliness and neediness (12:53-13:02), which influences his worldview and content creation.

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford does not fully acknowledge how these emotional wounds shape his interpretations of others’ beliefs, such as his critique of John Piper’s sermon or his dismissal of certain ideologies. For example, he criticizes Piper’s sermon as promoting a “crippled and dangerous perspective” (1:01:23) but fails to consider how his own emotional lens—particularly his sensitivity to loss and rejection—might bias his interpretation of Piper’s message as dismissive of family values. This personal bias leads him to project his own struggles onto others without critically examining whether his reactions are universally applicable.

2. Contradictory Stance on Beliefs and Truth

Evidence: Ford argues that people adopt “exciting beliefs” (e.g., neo-Nazism, conspiracy theories) to fill a void, particularly when they lack children or conventional success (2:27-3:04). He suggests that his own lack of children makes him more prone to seeking excitement through unconventional beliefs (2:32). However, he later admits to adopting Orthodox Judaism and making significant sacrifices for it (11:44-11:51), which contradicts his earlier claim that such beliefs are primarily adopted for excitement rather than conviction.

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford does not reconcile his own adoption of a rigorous religious lifestyle with his theory that fringe beliefs are driven by a need for excitement. He presents himself as an exception to his own rule without exploring why his motivations might differ or how his personal journey aligns with the same psychological needs he critiques in others. This inconsistency suggests a lack of reflection on how his own beliefs might serve similar emotional or social functions as those he criticizes.

3. Projection of Personal Insecurities onto Others

Evidence: Ford frequently attributes others’ behaviors to psychological deficiencies, such as a “deep hole in your soul” (56:55) or a “deep emptiness” (2:14:50) for those drawn to gurus like Jordan Peterson or John Piper. He also describes his own “embarrassing displays of neediness and weepiness” (13:37-13:43) and suggests that his livestreams may stem from a “maladaptive, selfish, self-destructive compulsion” (30:58-31:05).

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford projects his own insecurities and struggles with loneliness onto others, assuming that those who adopt strong ideological positions (e.g., neo-Nazism, evangelical Christianity) are similarly compensating for personal voids. He does not critically assess whether his own need for validation through livestreaming mirrors the same psychological mechanisms he critiques in others, such as seeking attention or significance through public platforms. This projection prevents him from objectively evaluating the motivations of others without filtering them through his own experiences.

4. Inconsistent Critique of Charismatic Figures

Evidence: Ford is highly critical of charismatic figures like his father, John Piper, and Jordan Peterson, accusing them of self-aggrandizement or grift (e.g., “My father had a thousand times more followers than friends” [25:30], Peterson’s “duplicitous game” [2:00:58]). Yet, he acknowledges the appeal of such figures and admits to being drawn to charismatic personalities like Ricardo, who “brings out the best in me” (38:51). He also engages in public intellectual discussions, seeking attention and validation through his own platform, much like the figures he critiques.

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford fails to recognize the parallels between his own public persona and the charismatic figures he criticizes. By livestreaming and seeking engagement from his audience, he is engaging in a similar pursuit of influence and validation, yet he does not reflect on how his own platform might exploit the same psychological needs he attributes to others’ followers. This blind spot undermines his critique of others’ motives, as he does not apply the same scrutiny to his own.

5. Overgeneralization Without Self-Reflection

Evidence: Ford makes broad claims about groups and ideologies, such as asserting that “99.99% of Christians would not consider doing something equivalent to Jews” (26:38) regarding acts like spitting, or that Christian clergy are universally “gutless” and anti-masculine (2:56:49-3:00:01). He also generalizes about neo-Nazism’s appeal as stemming from a need for excitement among the lonely (1:17:12-1:17:19).

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford does not question whether his own generalizations might be influenced by his limited perspective or emotional state. For instance, his claim about Christian clergy ignores the diversity within Christianity (e.g., he later acknowledges more masculine Orthodox Christianity [3:14:49]) and fails to consider how his own experiences with his father’s ministry might color his views. Similarly, his explanation of neo-Nazism’s appeal as a search for excitement oversimplifies a complex phenomenon and does not account for his own attraction to controversial or “exciting” topics on his livestreams, which he admits may stem from a need to regulate his emotions (30:52-31:05).

6. Failure to Acknowledge His Role in Amplifying Fringe Views

Evidence: Ford discusses neo-Nazism and other fringe beliefs as dangerous because they appeal to lonely, disconnected individuals (52:45-53:09). However, he admits to platforming “exciting people” in 2018 to make his show more engaging (1:37:35-1:37:40), and his livestream often delves into controversial topics like Kanye West’s Hitler references (3:05:23-3:06:03) or polyamory (3:55:02-4:04:37).

Lack of Self-Awareness: Ford does not reflect on how his own content creation might contribute to the same dynamics he critiques—namely, amplifying fringe or sensational ideas to attract an audience. By engaging with these topics, he may inadvertently provide a platform for the very beliefs he warns against, yet he does not examine his own role in this cycle or how his need for engagement (e.g., to counter loneliness [13:10-13:17]) mirrors the motivations he attributes to neo-Nazis or conspiracy theorists.

Posted in Alt Right, America | Comments Off on What Makes Neo-Nazis So Dangerous? (6-1-25)

‘I Don’t Have The Bandwidth To Deal With Anne’

“I don’t have the bandwidth” for certain people is a wise approach. How can you reduce the amount of bandwidth people need to navigate me?

Grok says:

Reducing the “bandwidth” others need to navigate you involves making interactions smoother, clearer, and less draining. Here’s how:
Be Clear and Direct: Communicate your thoughts, needs, and boundaries concisely. Avoid vague or ambiguous language that requires others to guess your intentions.

Set Expectations Early: Let people know your availability, response style, or preferences upfront (e.g., “I’m slow to text back but always reply within a day”). This reduces confusion and follow-ups.

Streamline Decision-Making: When collaborating, offer a few clear options or a strong starting point instead of open-ended discussions. For example, suggest, “Let’s meet at 3 PM or 5 PM—pick one,” rather than “When are you free?”

Practice Active Listening: Pay attention to others’ cues and confirm understanding (e.g., “So you’re saying X, right?”). This prevents miscommunication that wastes time and energy.

Automate or Delegate Low-Value Tasks: Use tools like shared calendars, auto-replies, or templates for routine interactions. For example, a FAQ doc for common questions about your work saves repetitive explanations.

Respect Others’ Time: Stick to agreed schedules, avoid unnecessary tangents, and summarize key points in conversations or emails. Brevity shows you value their bandwidth too.

Cultivate Self-Awareness: Reflect on how your behavior (e.g., mood swings, indecisiveness) might tax others. If you’re unpredictable, work on consistency to make interactions easier.

Filter Your Circle: Politely distance yourself from high-maintenance relationships that demand disproportionate energy, reserving bandwidth for mutually low-effort connections.

By being predictable, respectful, and efficient, you lower the cognitive and emotional load others need to engage with you.

Posted in Psychology | Comments Off on ‘I Don’t Have The Bandwidth To Deal With Anne’

America’s AI Advantage

American workers are about the hardest-working and most productive workers in the world, and they can buy more stuff per time worked then most any other nation in the world.

It’s not surprising that American business is way ahead in adopting AI. Optimism makes it easier to innovate and Americans are about the most optimistic and enthusiastic people in the world.

These generalizations are based on my first-hand observations combined with what I have read and heard.

If your job includes writing and research, AI will make your writing and research sharper and better. If you jump on AI now, you may be the only person in your workplace who’s using it. In 18 months, in certain information sectors such as law and coding, you will either use AI or you don’t have a job. AI is already far better at making a medical diagnosis than doctors.

Grok says:

The piece paints a vivid picture of AI’s transformative impact on business and society, with the U.S. leading the charge. It’s a compelling narrative, grounded in data like the $109 billion in U.S. AI investment in 2024 and the stark contrast with China ($9.3 billion) and the UK ($4.5 billion). The argument about U.S. structural advantages—flexible labor markets, massive capital flows, and a relatively hands-off regulatory environment—holds water, especially when you consider historical tech adoption cycles like the internet boom and the app economy. The point about Trump’s budget bill preempting state-level AI regulation is intriguing, as it could indeed streamline deployment, though it risks glossing over ethical or safety concerns that fragmented regulation might otherwise address.
The mention of China’s DeepSeek and its open-source approach is a sharp counterpoint, highlighting a potential blind spot in U.S. dominance. Kai-Fu Lee’s perspective—that Chinese firms lag in enterprise spending but excel in consumer AI apps—adds nuance, suggesting the U.S. lead isn’t unassailable. The idea that open-source models could bypass U.S.-China tech decoupling is a critical insight, as it underscores the difficulty of controlling intangible digital flows compared to physical chips.
However, the piece leans heavily on optimism about productivity gains without fully grappling with the social fallout. The reference to Anthropic’s CEO warning of 50% entry-level job losses in one to five years is alarming, and the nod to youth unemployment linked to AI rollouts feels underexplored. Steve Bannon’s prediction about AI disruption fueling 2028 election tensions seems plausible, but it’s a bit speculative without more context on voter sentiment or political platforms.
The comparison to Europe’s slower AI adoption is well-supported, but it risks oversimplifying Europe’s challenges. “Tighter labour regimes” and “fragmented markets” are real, but cultural attitudes toward risk and innovation, plus GDPR-like regulations, also play a role. The piece could’ve dug deeper here.
Overall, it’s a strong analysis that captures the U.S.’s AI momentum and its economic implications while flagging real risks like job displacement and geopolitical competition. It’s bullish on American business but doesn’t shy away from China’s potential to disrupt via open-source AI.

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Bond Yields

Peter Zeihan talks about how bond yields must increase as baby boomers retire. There’s less capital available. Does this make sense?

Grok says: Peter Zeihan’s argument that bond yields must increase as baby boomers retire due to less capital availability has some logic but requires unpacking. As boomers retire, they shift from saving to spending, drawing down assets like 401(k)s and pensions. This reduces the pool of capital for investment, including in bonds. Basic supply and demand suggest that a smaller supply of capital chasing bonds could push yields up, as issuers (governments, corporations) need to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers.
However, it’s not a slam-dunk. First, capital isn’t just domestic—global investors, including sovereign funds and younger generations in other countries, can fill the gap. Second, central banks like the Fed can suppress yields through policies like quantitative easing, as seen post-2008. Third, if boomer spending slows economic growth (e.g., via reduced labor force participation), demand for borrowing could drop, keeping yields lower. Finally, automation and productivity gains could offset capital scarcity by boosting economic output.
Zeihan’s point assumes a relatively closed system with fixed capital flows, which oversimplifies global markets. Yields might rise, but it’s not inevitable—depends on policy, global trends, and economic conditions. Historically, yields have stayed low despite demographic shifts (e.g., Japan’s aging population). Check 10-year Treasury yields: they’ve fluctuated more with Fed policy than demographics alone.

Posted in Bonds | Comments Off on Bond Yields

No Joke: Making Jewish Humor

Ruth Wisse writes in her 2014 book:

* The young man was most disagreeably surprised when the proposed bride was introduced to him, and drew aside the shadkhen — the marriage broker — to whisper his objections: “Why have you brought me here?” he asked reproachfully. “She’s ugly and old, she squints, and has bad teeth …” “You needn’t lower your voice,” interrupted the broker, “she’s deaf as well.”
Two Jews meet in a railway carriage at a station in Galicia. “Where are you going?” asks one. “To Cracow,” replied the other. “What a liar you are!” objects the first. “If you say you’re going to Cracow, you want me to believe you’re going to Lemberg. But I know that in fact you’re going to Cracow. So why are you lying to me?”
A schnorrer, who was allowed as a guest into the same house every Sabbath, appeared one day in the company of an unknown young man who was about to sit down at the table. “Who is this?” asked the householder. “He’s my new son – in – law,” the schnorrer replied. “I’ve promised him his board for the first year.”

* Freud put up with anti – Semitism in much the same way that he accepted civilization with its discontents (to paraphrase the title of one of his most famous works). 6 He therefore welcomed joking as a compensatory pleasure — the expressive venting of people who lived under the double weight of their own disciplining heritage and the collective responsibility to behave well among the nations. Herzl, in contrast, wanted to alleviate anti – Semitism for the betterment of Europe as well as the Jews.
…At issue here is the degree to which the two men’s approval of Jewish wit was proportional to their respective plans, if any, for Jewish rescue.

Posted in Humor, Jews | Comments Off on No Joke: Making Jewish Humor

Beliefs Are Like Possessions

When people most need to feel special, they are most likely to adopt special beliefs such as Holocaust denial or 9-11 truthism. Childless people are more likely to adopt exciting beliefs because their ordinary life does not provide sufficient excitement. If I had children, my beliefs would likely be less exciting because I would find that my kids provided me with all the excitement I needed.

I think the below analysis is more right than wrong, more frequently valid and useful for understanding reality than not.

Psychologist and political scientist Robert P. Abelson writes in 1986:

One finds or adopts beliefs with personal or social appeal. Other beliefs were received in childhood before one had much say in the matter. One shows off one’s beliefs to people one thinks will appreciate them, but not to those who are likely to be critical. One is inclined to ornament beliefs from time to time, especially when communicating them to others (Tetlock, 1983). If anyone is critical of them, one feels attacked and responds defensively, as though one’s appearance, taste, or judgment had been called into question. One occasionally adds new beliefs to one’s collection, if they do not glaringly clash with those one already has. It is something like the accumulation of furniture. One is reluctant to change any of one’s major beliefs. They are familiar and comfortable, and a big change would upset the whole collection. Beliefs that have been handed down from parents might constitute an exception. If one is young and trying to establish an independent identity, one might want to chuck out inherited beliefs and everything that goes with them, and start all over again on one’s own. Also, if fashions in certain beliefs change, and one is the kind of person who likes to keep up with fashions, one may change one’s unfashionable beliefs.

* Bem’s (1967; 1972) self-perception theory, at its extreme, can be taken to assert that people never have attitudes or beliefs; they merely invent appropriate things to say to suit the circumstances surrounding the occasions on which they are asked about them.

* Circumstances Inducing Possession of a Belief

Public commitment to a belief
Suffering for a belief
Explaining a belief
Elaborating a belief, or tracing its origins
Defending a belief
Attributing longevity to a belief
Becoming aware of the value of a belief

* Psychological Sources of Belief Value

Functionality

Instrumental (What the belief promises, via mediation or wishfully)
Expressive (Who the belief says you are: your groups, experiences and feelings)

Attributes

Sharedness (Is the belief in favour with other people?)
Uniqueness (Does the belief imply unusual taste?)
Defensibility (Can the belief be justified as sound?)
Extremity (Is the belief sharp, intense, “the most”?)
Centrality (Does the belief fit with other beliefs?)

* Believers are motivated to act in such a way as to increase the values of their beliefs, from whatever sources these arise. In general, then, belief value will tend to increase during time of possession.

* When threatened, beliefs tend to increase in value, via whatever sources are most malleable and useful.

* There are at least two kinds of costs associated with the adoption of a belief: opportunity costs and sunk costs. By an “opportunity cost,” economists refer to an alternative benefit which is given up by virtue of a particular action. If you pursue an attractive but time-consuming avocation, for example, you sacrifice time which might be used to earn money. In the belief context, there is the possibility that the adoption of one belief might forestall the opportunity to possess other beliefs.

* More common is the situation in which present beliefs must be abandoned in order to adopt new ones. Since the present beliefs have some value, their abandonment is costly. I refer to this as the “sunk cost” attaching to the loss of present beliefs. Presumably an individual would not abandon present beliefs if their sunk cost exceeded the apparent value of the beliefs which would replace them.

* For the art and practice of persuasion, the moral of the theory would seem to be that to give someone a new belief, you’ve got to “sell” it to them as something they would find of value, and you have to get them to exercise it a bit and make some commitment. This is analogous to an automobile salesman pointing out the attractive features of a new car and letting the customer experience them with a trial spin.

* Beliefs are objects which provide values to their owners. The bases for these values have little to do with the probable truth of the beliefs. This is a crucial fact both psychologically and sociopolitically. Competitions between ideologies depend substantially upon which belief system provides greater value to its proponents.

* Among academics, there is in principle more of a skill component in the act of believing, with greater attention to the logical consistency between arguments, and more emphasis on the desirability of reality tests, difficult though they may be. There is also a norm of openness to belief challenge, and (hopefully) a respect for the potential validity of such challenges. Ideally, in such an environment beliefs are treated as products of an openly shared skill.

Are friends like possessions? Do we make friends or lose friends in similar ways to how we make our beliefs and accumulate possessions? We might build friends that have social and personal appeal. We make friends in childhood because they are there. We might show off our friends. Sometimes we adopt new friends at the cost of old friends.

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Trial Run

The Paris Review notes: “In Zach Williams’s “Trial Run” (issue no. 239, Spring 2022), an employee is subjected to two coworkers’ conspiracy theories when their office is targeted by an anonymous white supremacist hacker.”

I loved everything about this story except the ending. ChatGPT says:

In Trial Run, the protagonist, an office worker, finds himself snowed in at his Manhattan office building, accompanied only by Manny, the conspiracy-theory-obsessed security guard. As the storm intensifies, Manny’s increasingly erratic behavior and cryptic remarks about global conspiracies unsettle the protagonist. The story concludes with the protagonist’s escape from the building, leaving behind a lingering sense of unease about what is real and what might be paranoia fueled by isolation.

Themes and Interpretations
Isolation and Paranoia: The snowstorm and the empty office setting amplify the protagonist’s sense of isolation, making him more susceptible to doubt and paranoia. Manny’s conspiracy theories blur the line between reality and delusion, reflecting the protagonist’s inner turmoil.
The Bookish Elf

The Facade of Normalcy: Manny’s sudden shift from a seemingly benign figure to a source of anxiety challenges the protagonist’s perception of normalcy. This transformation underscores the fragility of the social facades we maintain.

Unreliable Narration: The story’s ambiguity leaves readers questioning the reliability of the protagonist’s perspective. Is Manny truly a threat, or is he a projection of the protagonist’s fears? This uncertainty invites readers to reflect on the nature of truth and perception.
The Washington Post

Conclusion

The ending of Trial Run is deliberately unsettling, leaving readers with more questions than answers. This open-ended conclusion serves as a commentary on the complexities of modern life, where the boundaries between reality and perception are often blurred. Williams’ story challenges readers to confront their own assumptions and the tenuous nature of the world around them.

>>>It was a lousy payoff.

I completely understand your reaction! It’s really common to feel let down by an ending, especially when the rest of the story is so engaging and promising. In Trial Run, Williams builds up such a strong atmosphere of tension, isolation, and psychological unease that you’re probably invested in seeing how these elements resolve. So when the ending doesn’t offer a clear resolution or answers to the questions the story raises, it can feel like a missed opportunity.

The buildup with the conspiracy theories, the protagonist’s growing unease, and the strange dynamic between the two characters all create a strong sense of anticipation. If you were hoping for a more satisfying payoff—whether that’s a clear explanation of Manny’s behavior or a cathartic conclusion for the protagonist—the ambiguous ending can feel a bit unsatisfying.

It almost feels like a story where the resolution might be more about the emotional experience or the exploration of the protagonist’s psychological state than giving you a definitive answer. That’s something some readers really connect with, but if you’re someone who prefers closure and answers, it can definitely leave a bad taste.

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NYT: ‘For Trump, Civil Rights Protections Should Help White Men’ (5-26-25)

01:00 Dave Green v Nathan Cofnas,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JCq-wlOg88&ab_channel=TheDistributist
28:00 The power of nations: measuring what matters, https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/43/2/7/12211/The-Power-of-Nations-Measuring-What-Matters
42:00 The source of Donald Trump’s energy
48:00 Tim Dillon on Hamas propagandist Miss Rachel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjYNk6BrHqw
59:30 Michael joins to talk Jake Tapper’s new book, https://x.com/Michaelmvlog
1:19:00 Megyn Kelly Details Her Viral and Explosive Jake Tapper Interview Strategy, with Mark Halperin
1:28:00 Noah Carl: In Defence of Non-Experts, https://www.aporiamagazine.com/p/podcast-should-we-have-more-experts
1:47:30 Expertise in hard sciences is not of the same value as expertise in the soft sciences
1:56:00 NYT: For Trump, Civil Rights Protections Should Help White Men, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/us/politics/trump-race-civil-right-white-men.html
2:00:00 John Lott Jr. talks to Ann Coulter about Biden’s war on domestic terrorism, https://substack.com/home/post/p-163858429?source=queue&autoPlay=true
2:13:00 John Lott: DNI Releases Secret Biden Plan Raising Serious Civil Liberties Concerns, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/04/23/dni_releases_secret_biden_plan_raising_serious_civil_liberties_concerns_152689.html
2:15:00 John Lott: Crime Rates of Illegal Migrants Underreported, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2025/05/22/crime_rates_of_illegal_migrants_underreported_152825.html
2:22:00 Mark Halperin on Trump’s humor and how he’s a more effective president this time round, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul_fmOpcVhE
2:26:00 Gadi Taub talks with Michael Doran about Trump & Israel, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8MmHlVpUQM
2:40:00 PsychHacks: The most TOXIC RELATIONSHIP BELIEF: how you may be sabotaging your success, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Dcf4a8hW10
2:44:00 Joe Biden releases news of his prostate cancer just before the release of Jake Tapper & Alex Thompson’s new book, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVFu2WZqoXA

Grok says:

Luke Ford demonstrates a lack of self-awareness in several areas during his discussion in the video titled “NYT: ‘For Trump, Civil Rights Protections Should Help White Men’ (5-26-25).” Below, I outline specific instances where this lack of self-awareness is evident, based on the provided transcript:

Overestimation of Personal Performance Despite Acknowledged Impairment:

Ford admits to being “an absolute wreck” during his interview with Nathan Cofnas due to severe sleep deprivation, which impaired his judgment and ability to respond effectively (0:56–1:43). He acknowledges spending over 40 hours preparing and writing blog posts critiquing Cofnas’s work, yet describes the interview as a “humiliation” because he couldn’t sleep and was not at his best. Despite this, he does not reflect on how his choice to proceed with the interview in such a compromised state might have undermined his credibility or effectiveness. Instead, he focuses on external factors (e.g., Cofnas’s debate strategy) rather than critically assessing his own decision-making or preparation habits, such as his tendency to over-prepare to the point of exhaustion.

Projection of Personal Sensitivities onto Broader Narratives:

Ford repeatedly emphasizes his sensitivity to social feedback and the need for external validation to sustain his narratives (43:09–47:07). He describes how his energy and contributions depend heavily on others’ recognition and applause, citing personal examples like his interactions in Jewish communities and workplaces. He extends this personal trait to a universal principle, suggesting that everyone, including figures like Donald Trump, relies on such validation to maintain energy and charisma. This projection reveals a lack of self-awareness about how his personal emotional needs might not universally apply or might skew his analysis of others’ motivations. For instance, he assumes Trump’s energy comes primarily from his base’s applause without considering other factors like Trump’s personality or strategic communication style.

Inconsistent Critique of Expertise and Intellectualism:

Ford criticizes intellectuals like Douglas Murray, Ben Shapiro, and Peter Robinson as “partisan hacks” who do not optimize for truth but merely reinforce pre-existing worldviews (1:28:12–1:36:29). He contrasts them with figures like Steve Sailer and Charles Murray, whom he praises for precision and avoiding predictions. However, Ford does not acknowledge that his own commentary often aligns with a specific ideological bent, particularly his support for Trump and right-wing narratives (e.g., 1:55:03–1:58:04). His failure to recognize his own partisanship while condemning others for it indicates a blind spot in his self-perception as an objective commentator. Additionally, his dismissal of academic credentials and expertise (e.g., mocking Murray’s Oxford education and footnotes, 1:28:59–1:29:04) contrasts with his reliance on certain scholars (like Sailer) when it suits his narrative, revealing an inconsistent standard.

Failure to Reflect on His Role in Amplifying Partisan Narratives:

Ford discusses the importance of conservative media reinforcing narratives for their audience (1:14:47–1:16:59), yet he does not critically examine how his own content, such as his YouTube channel or blog posts, contributes to this dynamic. He praises conservative media for stating “obvious” truths about Joe Biden’s cognitive decline (1:11:47–1:12:26) but does not consider whether his own selective focus on certain issues (e.g., Biden’s senility, Trump’s policies) might oversimplify complex realities or cater to his audience’s biases. His lack of reflection on how his content shapes or is shaped by his audience’s expectations shows a lack of awareness about his role in the media ecosystem he critiques.

Uncritical Acceptance of His Own Emotional Reactions:

Ford’s discussion of his emotional reactions, such as feeling humiliated or needing community validation (43:09–44:03), is presented without questioning whether these reactions might cloud his judgment or objectivity. For example, he describes being “desperate and needy” at times (2:03:18) and suggests that giving attention to “good” and “courageous” people is a way to improve the world (2:03:01–2:04:04). However, he does not explore how his emotional neediness might bias him toward certain figures or narratives (e.g., his admiration for Trump’s energy, 44:21–44:59) or lead him to overlook flaws in those he deems “good.” This lack of introspection about his emotional drivers undermines his ability to critically assess his own commentary.

Hypocrisy in Critiquing Others’ Debate Tactics:

Ford criticizes Dave Green for “unimpressive reasoning” and failing to present empirical evidence during his debate with Nathan Cofnas (22:30–22:37). Yet, Ford himself engages in similar behavior by making broad, unsupported claims, such as asserting that “the average bloke” was right about Biden’s cognitive decline while the “cognitive elite” was wrong (16:31–16:58). He provides no specific evidence to quantify this claim, relying instead on anecdotal impressions, much like Green. His failure to recognize this parallel suggests a lack of self-awareness about his own argumentative rigor.

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