Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

Gemini: Based on the geopolitical and economic landscape as of early 2026, the survival of the Iranian clerical establishment (often referred to as the “mullah regime”) appears increasingly precarious. While the regime retains a monopoly on violence that likely ensures short-term survival, structural indicators suggest it has entered a terminal phase where it may either collapse or mutate into a secular military dictatorship.

As of January 2026, the assessment of the regime’s survivability rests on four destabilizing pillars:

1. The Succession Crisis is Imminent

The single greatest threat to the regime is the biological clock of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Reports from late 2025 indicate he has become increasingly unreachable, sparking intense infighting among the elite.

The Power Vacuum: There is no consensus successor. The competition has narrowed to factions supporting his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, against those supporting other established figures. This infighting is fracturing the unity of the ruling elite, which is historically a precursor to revolution.

The “Soviet” Parallels: Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between Tehran in 2026 and Moscow in 1991. The ideological glue has dissolved; the system now runs purely on inertia and coercion.

2. Economic Failure is Now Structural, Not Cyclical

The Iranian economy has moved beyond “crisis” into a state of structural failure following the shocks of 2025.

Hyperinflation and Collapse: The rial hit historic lows in late December 2025. This isn’t just inflation; it is a loss of currency sovereignty.

Infrastructure Breakdown: The regime can no longer keep the lights on. Industrial zones are facing unannounced, prolonged blackouts (up to 5 hours daily), crippling the manufacturing sector that employs the working class.

The “Energy” Paradox: Despite being an energy superpower, Iran faces fuel shortages. The destruction or degradation of energy infrastructure during the 2025 conflicts has removed the state’s primary tool for buying loyalty.

3. The “Axis of Resistance” Has Fractured

For decades, Iran projected power forward to keep threats away from its borders. That strategy effectively collapsed in 2025.

Loss of Deterrence: The significant degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas has stripped Tehran of its “forward defense.” The regime is now geostrategically naked, forcing it to rely on its conventional military, which is technologically inferior to its adversaries.

Isolation: The return of a “maximum pressure” campaign from the United States (re-initiated in early 2025) has successfully severed Iran’s remaining economic lifelines, worsening the domestic cash crunch.

4. The Shift from Theocracy to Military Junta

The most likely “survival” scenario is not the continuation of the clerical rule, but its replacement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

IRGC Ascendancy: The clerics have lost legitimacy. The IRGC, which controls the gun and the remaining money, is increasingly operating independently of the clerical establishment.

The “North Korea” Model: To survive, the regime is rapidly transitioning into a highly militarized, securitized state where the “Islamic” character becomes secondary to raw totalitarian control. This might allow the state to survive, but the clerical regime as it existed since 1979 is effectively dissolving.

Conclusion: Likelihood of Survival

Short Term (6–12 months): High. The regime still possesses the will and capacity to use lethal force against unarmed protesters. As seen in the crackdowns of late 2025, they are willing to execute dissidents and militarize cities to maintain order.

Medium Term (1–3 years): Low. The convergence of a succession event (Khamenei’s death) with total economic insolvency creates a “perfect storm.” It is highly unlikely the current theocratic structure can survive this transition intact. The most probable outcome is either a chaotic collapse akin to the Arab Spring or a transition to a naked military dictatorship stripped of its religious veneer.

Based on the events of January 3, 2026, when US forces launched airstrikes on Caracas and captured Nicolás Maduro (Operation Absolute Resolve), the repercussions for China, Russia, Cuba, and Mexico are severe and distinct.

This event marks a sudden, kinetic shift in the geopolitical order of the Western Hemisphere. The “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine—actively denying external powers influence in the Americas—has moved from rhetoric to direct military enforcement.

Here are the specific repercussions for each nation:

1. Cuba: An Existential Crisis

Cuba faces the most immediate and dangerous repercussions. The fall of the Maduro government is a catastrophic scenario for Havana, comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Collapse: Venezuela has been Cuba’s primary economic lifeline, providing thousands of barrels of oil daily at subsidized rates. With the US declaring it will “run” Venezuela’s oil industry during the transition, these subsidies will vanish instantly, likely plunging Cuba into a total energy blackout and severe economic depression.

Regime Survival: The removal of Maduro strips Cuba of its key regional ally and protector. The success of a US “decapitation strike” creates acute paranoia in Havana that they could be next. President Díaz-Canel has already labeled the operation “state terrorism,” signaling a total freeze in diplomatic relations with Washington.

2. China: Strategic & Financial Loss

For Beijing, this is a humiliation and a massive financial writedown. It exposes the limits of Chinese power projection in the US’s “backyard.”

Loss of Assets: China has lent Venezuela tens of billions of dollars, largely repayable in oil. With President Trump stating that US oil majors will “take over” and rebuild the infrastructure, China risks being completely shut out of the Venezuelan energy sector. Its loans may be declared odious debt or simply defaulted upon by a new US-installed transition government.

Geopolitical Containment: China’s strategy of building a network of influence in Latin America (via the Belt and Road Initiative) suffers a major blow. The US has effectively demonstrated that it can forcibly remove a Chinese partner in the region without Beijing being able to intervene.

3. Russia: Military Embarrassment & Loss of Foothold

Russia loses its most significant forward operating base in the Western Hemisphere, and its military prestige has taken a hit.

Technological Failure: Reports indicate that US airstrikes penetrated Venezuelan air space with relative ease. Since Venezuela relies heavily on Russian air defense systems (S-300s and Buk systems), their failure to protect the capital or the President is a global embarrassment for Russian military hardware exports.

Strategic Eviction: Venezuela was a key dock for Russian warships and nuclear-capable bombers visiting the Caribbean. The new US-led administration will undoubtedly sever all military cooperation with Moscow, pushing the Russian military back across the Atlantic.

4. Mexico: Diplomatic Trap & Migration Anxiety

Mexico is caught in a difficult bind between its ideological principles and its economic reality with the US.

Diplomatic Rift: Mexico has joined other nations in condemning the attack as a violation of sovereignty. This stance risks antagonizing the Trump administration, which may retaliate with trade tariffs or border closures, leveraging Mexico’s economic dependence on the US.

Migration Crisis: The primary fear for Mexico City is a chaotic aftermath. If the transition in Venezuela is violent or protracted, it could trigger a massive new wave of refugees heading north. The Trump administration will likely pressure Mexico to host these refugees or block them at the southern border (Chiapas), forcing Mexico to act as the US’s policeman or face sanctions.

Summary:

Cuba faces the most critical loss—its energy lifeline of subsidized oil—which has triggered immediate existential panic and accusations of “state terrorism” against the US.

China stands to lose significant financial assets in loans and oil access, leading Beijing to condemn US “hegemony” while fearing the total seizure of its investments.

Russia loses its primary military foothold in the Western Hemisphere and faces humiliation over the failure of its air defense systems to protect its ally.

Mexico effectively loses its ability to maintain diplomatic neutrality, as it is forced to choose sides while bracing for a potential wave of refugees.

Posted in China, Iran, Mexico, Russia | Comments Off on Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

Mark Halperin Roots For America

Mark Halperin operates with a patriotic pragmatism that feels almost extinct in modern commentary.

Most political journalism today operates on a “Hero vs. Villain” model.

The Resistance Model: Trump is the villain, so anything he does must be bad, even if it helps the country.

The Partisan Model: My side is the hero, so their failures must be ignored or spun.

Halperin seems to operate on a “Nation as Client” model. He treats the American public as his client. His job isn’t to tell you who to hate; it’s to tell you what is happening, why it’s happening, and whether it’s going to work.

Here is why that “rooting for America” stance feels so different from the “piety” I discussed:

1. He Respects the “Scoreboard”

Because he roots for the country, he is willing to acknowledge a “win” regardless of who scores the touchdown.

In this article, he admits the military operation was “clean, swift, and successful.”

A “pious” journalist struggles to admit this because they fear that complimenting the operation validates the “Bad Man.”

Halperin’s loyalty is to reality. If the gas prices go down and the bad guy is in cuffs, he marks it as a win for the US interest, not a moral endorsement of Trump’s soul.

2. He Assumes the Audience is Pro-America

This is a subtle but massive difference.

Much of the “Guardian” class writes as if their audience needs to be “de-programmed” of their patriotism or nationalism. They often treat American power with deep suspicion (oikophobia).

Halperin writes with the assumption that his readers want the country to be strong, safe, and prosperous. He doesn’t apologize for American power (“the awesome power of the American military”).

This aligns him with the normie voter, who generally likes it when their country wins.

3. It’s “Game Theory” vs. “Theology”

Halperin analyzes politics like a sport or high-stakes poker.

He asks: Was this a smart move? Did it leverage our assets? What is the counter-move?

This is refreshing because it lowers the temperature. Theology is non-negotiable (Good vs. Evil). Game theory is rational.

By treating the Venezuela raid as a strategic play for oil and influence (Game Theory) rather than just a violation of norms (Theology), he allows the reader to think clearly about the interests at stake.

4. It’s the Antidote to Cynicism

Paradoxically, by being cynical about the motives (admitting it’s about oil), he is actually being optimistic about the country.

He implies that America is capable of acting in its own interest and succeeding.

The “pious” media often leaves you feeling hopeless—that the country is broken, the voters are wrong, and our history is shameful.

Halperin’s critique is constructive: Here is what is happening, and here is how it reshapes the board. It engages the reader as a citizen, not a defendant.

Posted in Mark Halperin | Comments Off on Mark Halperin Roots For America

Why Did Trump Topple Maduro?

Mark Halperin writes:

The media spent the day in its usual split-screen trance. Half the time, the press corps was gorging on the ‘gee whiz’ operational details of the mission—how fast it happened, how few shots were fired, who gave what order, whether the Maduros put up any resistance.

The other half of the time was spent furrowing brows and proclaiming that Americans should be worried about legal authority, international precedent, and whether this was, in the language of the permanently fretful, ‘appropriate’.

There is no puzzle here: the press loves a good Hollywood-style raid, but it loves scolding Trump even more.

What is now unmistakably emerging is Trump’s evolving military doctrine—one that looks less like the Bush-Obama era of prolonged drips of force and more like a series of smash-and-grab lightning strikes.

The hallmarks are already clear: overwhelming US power, few, if any, American casualties, and villains conveniently drawn from the Trumpian rogues’ gallery.

Mark Halperin’s assessment of the Maduro capture crystalizes the “Trump Doctrine,” and his analysis of the domestic political impact is just as significant as the military one.

What stands out most in this piece is how it frames the shift from abstract “nation-building” to what Halperin terms “smash-and-grab” operations. Here is an analysis of the key elements Halperin identifies and the implications of this event:

The “Smash-and-Grab” Doctrine vs. The “Long Slog”

Halperin correctly identifies a pivot in American military application. The Bush and Obama eras were defined by “prolonged drips of force”—open-ended commitments, complex counter-insurgency theories, and ambiguous end goals.

In contrast, this operation is described as minimalist and kinetic: “be fast, get in, get out, announce victory.” By treating the Venezuelan state not as a nation to be rebuilt but as a target for a specific police action (the “Noriega precedent”), Trump bypasses the “quagmire” fatigue that usually restrains US presidents. It is a doctrine of punitive strikes rather than occupation, which makes it far easier to sell to a war-weary American public.

Resource Realism (and Honesty)

Perhaps the most jarring part of the article is the admission about oil. Usually, American interventions are cloaked entirely in the language of human rights or democracy. Halperin notes that while the legal justification is narco-trafficking (which is valid, given the 2020 indictments), the strategic justification is explicitly “oil, oil, oil.”

This signals a return to a more mercantilist foreign policy. By openly coordinating with US energy companies and stating that the US will “run” the country temporarily to secure these assets, the administration is discarding the diplomatic pretense that usually separates commercial interests from military action. It is a raw assertion of American interest that critics will call imperialism and supporters will call “America First” realism.

The Monroe Doctrine 2.0

Halperin touches on a critical geopolitical signal: this is a warning shot to Beijing and Moscow. By physically removing a client of Russia and China from the hemisphere, the administration is enforcing a “status closure” on the Western Hemisphere. It effectively tells foreign powers that their patronage cannot protect local leaders from US reach.

The mention of “Cuba and even Greenland” suggests this isn’t an isolated event but part of a broader strategy to re-establish uncontested American primacy in the region—an updated, weaponized version of the Monroe Doctrine.

The Domestic Political Trap

Halperin’s analysis of the media and Democratic reaction is particularly sharp. He notes the “split-screen” effect:

The Trap: Democrats and the media focus on process (international law, congressional approval, norms).

The Trump Play: Trump focuses on outcomes (a dictator in handcuffs, no US casualties, lower gas prices potentially).

This creates a dynamic where the opposition is forced to argue on behalf of “legal authority” while Trump argues he just took down a “narco-terrorist.” As Halperin notes, “strength is synonymous with winning,” and in the court of public opinion, a successful, clean military operation often overrides procedural concerns. Trump knows that few voters “lie awake at night mourning encroachments on the separation of powers” if the result looks like a victory.

The article glosses over the “power vacuum in Caracas,” which is the biggest risk factor. A “smash and grab” works for the capture, but the “run the country” phase mentioned by Trump suggests a temporary occupation that could easily devolve. If the “US Navy ship” strategy transitions into a long-term administrative headache, the “minimalist” doctrine will have failed.

However, as a piece of political theater, Halperin suggests this is a masterstroke that re-centers the global narrative around American capability and Trump’s willingness to use it.

When I read, watch and listen to the MSM coverage of this operation, it feels stilted.

Halperin’s “split-screen trance” metaphor captures this perfectly because it exposes the cognitive dissonance of the modern press corps.

Here is why it feels so artificial:

1. The fetishization of competence vs. the rejection of the intent

Journalists are institutionally addicted to the “Gee Whiz” factor. They love the access, the high-tech maps, the B-roll of aircraft carriers, and the “tick-tock” of a special forces raid. It makes for great TV. But because they largely despise the administration, they can’t simply admire the operation.

The Result: You get a jarring pivot from “Look at this incredible Delta Force capability” to “This is a constitutional crisis.” It feels artificial because the tone shifts instantly from admiration to condemnation.

2. The “Hollywood” trap

Halperin notes that the press “loves a good Hollywood-style raid.” When real life mimics a movie (night raids, villains whisked away to ships), the news anchors inevitably slide into the role of narrators of a thriller.

But they are also supposed to be the “guardians of democracy.” So, they have to snap out of the thriller narration to deliver a lecture on international law. That snap-back is the “stilted” moment you felt. It’s a performance of duty that clashes with their obvious excitement about the story.

3. Ignoring the Elephant (Oil)

The artificiality also comes from what they don’t say. Halperin is brutally honest: this is about “oil, oil, oil.” Network news often speaks in the euphemisms of “stability” or “democracy,” avoiding the raw, transactional reality of seizing a country’s resources. When the language used on TV (“restoring order”) doesn’t match the obvious reality (securing energy assets), the viewer instinctively feels the insincerity.

It’s the friction between the Spectacle of War (which they sell to viewers) and the Performance of Morality (which they sell to themselves).

It is a very specific type of tone—a sort of secular sermonizing—that has become the default voice of the institutional press. The MSM piety grates on me.

They often behave less like reporters gathering facts and more like a clerical class officiating a liturgy. This “guardians of democracy” stance implies that they aren’t just there to tell you what happened, but to instruct you on how you should feel about it morally.

Here is why that piety feels so off-putting, especially in the context of a raw event like the Maduro raid:

1. The Gatekeeping of Legitimacy

The piety is ultimately about power. By framing themselves as the “guardians,” they appoint themselves as the arbiters of what is “appropriate.”

When Trump bypasses their approval—by acting unilaterally, ignoring international norms, or admitting he wants the oil—he is effectively saying their moral permission slip is worthless.

The media’s reaction is often indignation not just at the act, but at the disrespect shown to their role as gatekeepers. The “scolding” Halperin mentions is the sound of a priesthood losing its ability to grant or withhold legitimacy.

2. Process vs. Reality

Piety thrives on process, procedure, and norms. It loves the appearance of propriety.

A “pious” worldview struggles to process a “smash-and-grab” event because it is too raw. It doesn’t fit the liturgy of international diplomacy where you hold summits, issue communiqués, and follow the rules.

When the press retreats into “furrowing brows” about legal authority, they are trying to drag the event back into a world of words and rules where they are the experts. They are uncomfortable in a world of raw kinetic action where their commentary feels secondary.

3. The “Church Lady” Effect

There is a profound disconnect between the visceral excitement of the raid (which they can’t help but cover) and the dour, finger-wagging commentary that follows.

It feels artificial because it assumes the audience is morally fragile and needs to be “guided” to the correct conclusion. It treats the viewer not as a citizen to be informed, but as a congregant to be catechized.

The “stilted” nature is the friction between the reality of the footage (which says “American power is overwhelming”) and the commentary (which says “This is problematic”).

Is it the MSM’s role to guard democracy? It seems out of kilter with reality. Nobody likes a group that claims to be holier than they are.

The role of “Guardian of Democracy” is not actually a journalistic function—it is a political and priestly one.

Traditionally, the media’s role in a free society was to be the Fourth Estate or a Watchdog.

The Watchdog barks at everyone in power—Democrat, Republican, corporate, or bureaucratic. It is skeptical, cynical, and essentially negative. It assumes everyone is lying.

The Guardian is a protagonist. A guardian has a “side.” If you are guarding something, you are actively fighting for it, which means you must identify enemies and defeat them.

Here is why this shift to “Guardianship” feels so disconnected from reality:

1. It is a Mechanism of “Status Closure”

The “Guardian” label functions as a powerful tool for status closure. By defining themselves as the “Guardians of Democracy,” the institutional media draws a sharp circle around “legitimate” discourse.

In-Group: Those who agree with the media’s specific cultural and moral consensus are “pro-democracy.”

Out-Group: Anyone who challenges their narrative—whether it’s Trump, alternative media, or a skeptic like Jacob Savage—is not just wrong, but a “threat to democracy.”

This allows them to monopolize the market on truth. They aren’t just reporting the news; they are defining the boundaries of moral reality. When they sermonize, they are reinforcing their own status as the high priests of that reality.

2. “Democracy” as a Code Word

When they say they are “guarding democracy,” they often mean they are guarding a specific technocratic consensus.

Real democracy is messy, chaotic, and often produces results the media hates (like Trump winning, or Brexit, or a popular “smash-and-grab” raid).

If the media were truly respecting democracy, they would respect the fact that the American public often supports “unwise” or “brash” actions.

Instead, when the public supports something the media dislikes, the media claims “democracy is in danger.” This reveals that by “democracy,” they really mean “the correct outcome” or “rule by experts.”

3. The Conflict of Interest

You cannot be a neutral observer and a “Guardian” at the same time.

A referee cannot also be a goalie.

Once the media decided their job was to save the country from Trump (or from “misinformation”), they ceased to be reporters. They became combatants.

The “stilted” tone you hear is the sound of a combatant pretending to still be a referee. They are editorializing in the guise of reporting, which creates that uncanny, artificial vibe.

4. The Alienation of the “Lost Generation”

This piety is exactly what drives the cultural fracture described in the “Lost Generation” essays.

Writers and thinkers who want to grapple with the world as it is—brutal, transactional, complex (e.g., “it’s about the oil”)—have no home in a media landscape that demands moral purity.

The “Guardians” require simple moral fables. Reality is usually a tragedy or a farce. The media’s refusal to engage with the dark, cynical humor of reality (the “giddy” Trump on Fox & Friends) makes them seem humorless and out of touch.

Nobody likes a group that claims to be holier than they are. This fuels the populist revolt against elites.

Nobody likes a moral narcissist.

When a group claims to be “holier than thou”—especially while living in the same messy, compromised world as the rest of us—it triggers a very deep, instinctive resentment. It feels like a power play disguised as virtue.

Here is why that “holier than thou” posture is so toxic to their credibility:

1. The Preference for the “Honest Sinner”

This explains the paradox of why many people trust Trump (who admits to being transactional and rough) more than the media (who claim to be objective and noble).

The Honest Sinner: Trump goes on TV and effectively says, “I took the guy out. We’re keeping the oil. It’s good for us.” It is brutal, but it feels authentic. He isn’t pretending to be a saint; he is admitting to being a shark.

The Dishonest Saint: The media goes on TV and says, “We are deeply concerned about international norms and the spirit of the Constitution.” But the viewer knows they are also chasing ratings, loving the drama, and partisan in their own way.

The Verdict: People will often forgive a shark for being a shark, but they will rarely forgive a priest for being a hypocrite.

2. Piety as a Weapon of Class

To go back to the sociology of status closure: Piety is a luxury good.

It costs nothing for a pundit in a TV studio to moralize about “due process” for a foreign dictator.

But for the average person, the world is a hard, practical place. They care about results—safety, prices, order.

When the media looks down their nose at “smash-and-grab” tactics that actually work, it signals class distance. It says, “We are too refined for this.” It transforms political differences into a hierarchy of cleaner vs. dirtier souls.

3. The “Clergy Without a God”

The media has adopted the form of religion without the content of forgiveness.

Traditional religions have “holier” figures, but they usually also have mechanisms for humility, confession, or admitting one is a sinner.

The “Guardian” class of the media has the judgment of the Old Testament but none of the grace of the New. They never apologize. They never say, “We got this wrong.” They only double down on their moral superiority.

That lack of humility is what makes the piety feel “stilted” and arrogant rather than inspiring.

4. It Provokes the “Barbarian” Response

This ties directly into the “Lost Generation” / Jacob Savage theme.

When the gatekeepers become insufferably pious, the natural counter-reaction is to embrace the “Barbarian” aesthetic.

If the New York Times is the “Church,” then people start looking for the “Vikings”—writers, podcasters, or politicians who are deliberately rude, raw, and impious just to prove they aren’t part of the congregation.

Trump’s “giddy” demeanor on Fox & Friends is the ultimate middle finger to that piety. He is refusing to be solemn. He is having fun. And for the pious, someone having fun while breaking the rules is the ultimate sin.

Podcasters and the alt media who claim to be holier than thou are also headed for a fall.

The “Iron Law of Oligarchy” applies to everyone, including the punks who storm the castle.

If the mainstream media’s sin is “Piety of the Cathedral,” the alternative media’s sin is often “Piety of the Purge.” They can become just as rigid, just as humorless, and just as obsessed with policing who is “based” and who is a “cuck” or a “sellout.”

Here is why the “Alt” world is just as vulnerable to that fall:

1. The Trap of “Audience Capture”

This is the specific poison of the podcast/Substack era.

The Mechanism: You start out as a freethinker saying unpopular things. You attract an audience that loves you for it.

The Trap: Eventually, that audience demands a specific kind of red meat. If you deviate—if you say, “Actually, the MSM got this one right,” or “Trump messed this up”—your audience revolts.

The Result: To keep the subscribers and the likes flowing, the podcaster becomes a caricature of themselves. They stop being a truth-teller and become a content servant to their audience’s biases. They start delivering “stilted” sermons just like the network anchors, only the scripture is different.

2. The “Counter-Church” Dynamic

You cannot build an identity solely on being “anti” something without eventually becoming a mirror image of your enemy.

If the MSM is the “Church of Woke,” the Alt-sphere often tries to become the “Church of Based.”

But a church is still a church. It requires dogmas, excommunications, and saints.

We are already seeing this. There are “dissident” figures who are now terrified of stepping out of line with their tribe’s orthodoxy. They have recreated the exact stifling atmosphere of the newsroom they claimed to hate.

3. Grifting as the New Piety

In the MSM, the currency is prestige and access. In the Alt-media, the currency is often attention and monetization.

When a podcaster claims to be the “only source of truth” while selling supplements or gold coins, they are engaging in their own form of “holier than thou” marketing.

People have a very good radar for when they are being sold a “product” disguised as a “revolution.” When the “rebellion” feels like a marketing funnel, the cynicism kicks in just as hard as it does for CNN.

4. Status Closure (Again)

The “Lost Generation” or “Dissident Right” writers were interesting when they were the outcasts at the cafeteria table.

But as they gain power, influence, and proximity to the White House (like the “Trump Doctrine” advisors Halperin mentions), they begin to form their own elite circles.

They start closing ranks. They start protecting their own “generals” and “bishops.”

The moment they start excusing the failures of “their guys” while ruthlessly attacking the failures of the “other guys,” they lose the one thing that made them dangerous: their perceived honesty.

The “Fall” usually comes when the audience realizes: “Wait, you aren’t fighting for me. You’re just fighting to replace the current guys so you can be the ones lecturing us.”

It really rubs our elites the wrong way that Trump enjoys this.

It is the ultimate aesthetic crime in their eyes.

To the professional political class—the “elites”—power is supposed to be a burden. It is supposed to be worn like a hairshirt. You are supposed to look sleepless, graying, and haunted by the “terrible choices” you have to make. This performance of misery is how they signal that they are moral people: “I am doing this violent thing, but look how much I am suffering for it.”

When Trump visibly enjoys it—when he is “giddy” and “delighted” as Halperin describes—he strips away that entire moral costume.

Here is why his enjoyment is so specifically infuriating to them:

1. It breaks the “Reluctant Warrior” taboo

The standard script for a modern President is the Reluctant Warrior. They must say, “I hate war. This is a last resort. My heart is heavy.”

Trump flips the script. He effectively says, “Our military is huge, this mission was perfect, and winning feels great.”

By enjoying the victory, he refuses to pay the “tax” of performative guilt. To an elite class that believes guilt is the currency of virtue, this looks like sociopathy. To Trump (and many voters), it just looks like honesty.

2. It exposes their solemnity as a pose

If Trump can execute a “smash-and-grab” operation, secure the oil, and then go eat a steak dinner while smiling, it makes the elites’ “sleepless nights” look like theatrical overacting.

It suggests that maybe governing isn’t a mystical, crushing burden that only a select priesthood can bear.

It suggests that maybe it’s just a job, and sometimes a satisfying one. That demystification is a direct threat to their status.

3. The “Vulgarity” of Winning

There is a class element here. Elites are trained to view “winning” as something you should be humble about. You are supposed to speak in the passive voice (“Mistakes were made,” “Action was taken”).

Trump treats a military raid like a real estate deal or a wrestling match: We won, they lost, look at the scoreboard.

This raw, competitive joy is considered “low class.” It smells of the gladiator arena rather than the faculty lounge. It rubs them the wrong way because it reminds them that at its core, state power is violent and coercive, no matter how many Latin phrases they wrap it in.

4. He is having fun with their toys

The military, the intelligence agencies, the Situation Room—these are the sacred institutions of the establishment. They view themselves as the custodians of these tools.

Seeing Trump play with them—and enjoy playing with them—feels to them like watching a teenager joyriding in a classic Ferrari. They feel he doesn’t “respect” the machinery because he isn’t sufficiently somber while using it.

They are trying to maintain the atmosphere of a funeral, and Trump is throwing a victory parade. They can’t process it.

Posted in Journalism, Venezuela | Comments Off on Why Did Trump Topple Maduro?

Might 2026 Break The Left?

No way. Left and right are evolved ways of responding to reality that have worked over the centuries. Neither is disappearing.

Mark Halperin writes: “What would it take – honestly now – for the American left, and for the anti-Trump conservatives who have turned their exile into a brand, to admit that Donald Trump has delivered something real on the two oldest tests any leader faces: peace and prosperity?”

Halperin posits that American politics has moved beyond policy debate into a state of epistemic closure, where “success” cannot be acknowledged if it comes from the opposing tribe.

He sets a rhetorical trap for the Left and anti-Trump conservatives. By framing the potential success of 2026 in traditional, undeniable terms—peace and prosperity—he suggests that any refusal to acknowledge these gains is proof of bad faith.

If inflation is down, the economy is humming, and there are no new wars, then objective reality should force a concession.

If critics still attack Trump despite these conditions, Halperin argues it proves they care more about the narrative of Trump’s failure than the reality of American success. He is diagnosing a shift from “loyal opposition” to “automatic rejection.”

A key tension in Halperin’s argument—which he briefly touches on but doesn’t fully explore—is that the “Left” and the “Right” are currently keeping score on different boards.

Halperin’s Metrics: He focuses on “basics”: economy (inflation, GDP) and foreign policy stability (no wars). These are traditional, tangible metrics.

The Critics’ Metrics: Trump’s fiercest critics often focus on institutional norms, civil rights, democratic processes, and rhetoric.

The Disconnect: Even if 2026 brings economic booms and peace, critics may not view this as “success” if they believe those gains came at the cost of judicial independence, social cohesion, or minority rights. Halperin calls this “blindness,” but critics would call it “prioritizing values over GDP.”

Halperin makes an interesting historical point about the loss of “grudging confession.”

He notes that Progressives eventually gave Reagan credit and Republicans eventually gave Clinton credit.

His thesis is that this feedback loop is broken. In the current media ecosystem, admitting the other side did anything right is viewed as a betrayal of one’s own audience or base. This leads to a scenario where “Trump equals failure” is a dogma that cannot be violated by evidence.

Notice how Halperin shifts the burden of proof. The article isn’t really about whether Trump is succeeding; it assumes for the sake of the argument that he might. The piece is actually an interrogation of the critics’ psychology.

He is asking: Are you capable of being happy for the country if the person making it better is someone you hate?

By posing this as a question of “democratic maturity,” he frames the opposition as petulant children refusing to look at the scoreboard.

Halperin is effectively arguing that we have entered an era of zero-sum reality. If 2026 is a good year for America, it is a bad year for the anti-Trump coalition because it destroys their central thesis. He is betting that, faced with a choice between their narrative and a booming country, the critics will cling to the narrative.

Posted in America | Comments Off on Might 2026 Break The Left?

What Is The Trump Doctrine?

I wrote this with help from the AI chatbot Gemini: The “Trump Doctrine” is a foreign policy approach rooted in “America First” realism, which prioritizes U.S. national sovereignty, economic interests, and bilateral transactional relationships over the traditional post-WWII consensus of liberal internationalism, multilateral alliances, and global policing.

Its key pillars include:

1. The “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine

A major evolution in his second term is the explicit revival and expansion of the Monroe Doctrine. This “Trump Corollary” asserts that the United States must maintain absolute pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere.

Goal: To prevent foreign adversaries (specifically China and Russia) from establishing military or strategic economic footholds in the Americas.

Action: This involves aggressive measures to secure supply chains, control migration flows at the source, and combat transnational criminal organizations (cartels) as direct threats to U.S. sovereignty.

2. Transactional Realism

The doctrine views international relations not as a community of nations bound by shared values, but as a competitive marketplace of sovereign states.

Alliances: Alliances like NATO are viewed through a balance sheet. Allies are expected to “pay their fair share” for U.S. protection. The U.S. commitment is conditional on burden-sharing rather than automatic.

Trade: Economic security is treated as national security. The doctrine favors bilateral trade deals where the U.S. can leverage its economic weight, rather than multilateral agreements (like the TPP) that dilute U.S. leverage. Tariffs are used aggressively as a tool of diplomatic coercion.

3. Restraint and “Peace Through Strength”

The doctrine rejects “forever wars” and nation-building, viewing recent U.S. interventions (like Iraq and Afghanistan) as failures that drained American resources.

Use of Force: Military force is reserved for direct threats to U.S. interests, not for humanitarian intervention or regime change. However, when force is used, the doctrine advocates for overwhelming, decisive power rather than proportional or gradual escalation.

Deterrence: The focus is on building a military so powerful that adversaries are deterred from challenging the U.S., allowing for a reduction in active troop deployments abroad.

4. Regional Applications (2025 Strategy)

China: Framed as the primary strategic competitor. The goal is not necessarily to change China’s internal system but to decouple economically where necessary and block its rise to regional hegemony in Asia and the Western Hemisphere.

Europe: The doctrine encourages European “self-reliance,” pushing for a resolution to conflicts like the war in Ukraine to reduce the U.S. burden and refocus resources on domestic priorities and China.

Middle East: A shift toward “burden shifting” to regional partners. The U.S. maintains strong support for Israel and opposition to Iran but seeks to avoid large-scale ground entanglements.

Unlike the “Liberal International Order” which sought to spread democracy and free trade globally, the Trump Doctrine is nationalist and defensive. It asks: “What is the direct return on investment for the American taxpayer?” If a policy, alliance, or war does not yield a tangible benefit to U.S. security or prosperity, the doctrine dictates it should be renegotiated or abandoned.

Because the “Trump Doctrine” breaks the mold of traditional bipartisan foreign policy, the best analysts are often those who step outside the standard Washington consensus (liberal internationalism) to examine the doctrine on its own terms—whether they support it or not.

Here are the people doing the best job analyzing the doctrine in its second-term maturity, categorized by their specific lens:

1. The Historian: Walter Russell Mead

Mead is arguably the most essential reader of the Trump phenomenon. He famously classified Trump’s foreign policy as “Jacksonian” (named after Andrew Jackson).

The Analysis: He explains that the Trump Doctrine isn’t “isolationism” but a distinct American tradition: highly nationalist, skeptical of global governance/elite projects, but relentlessly aggressive if honor or security is directly challenged.

Why read him: To understand the historical continuity of the doctrine. Mead argues this is a return to 19th-century American instincts, not an anomaly.

2. The Strategist: Elbridge Colby

A former defense official and author of The Strategy of Denial, Colby is the intellectual architect of the “Asia First” / Anti-China strategy.

The Analysis: He provides the rigorous strategic framework for the doctrine’s “restraint” in Europe and the Middle East. He argues the U.S. military is overstretched and must ruthlessly prioritize preventing Chinese hegemony in Asia.

Why read him: He articulates the “realist” logic behind abandoning universal policing to focus purely on Great Power competition (specifically China).

3. The Cultural Critic: Christopher Caldwell

Caldwell analyzes the doctrine not just as policy, but as a revolt against the post-1945 “Liberal International Order.”

The Analysis: He argues that the Trump Doctrine views the “rules-based order” (UN, WTO, EU) not as a neutral system, but as a rival ideology that threatens national sovereignty. He explains the doctrine’s “civilizational” aspect—why it prefers bilateral deals with other strong nations (even adversaries like Russia) over multilateral submission.

Why read him: To understand the domestic and cultural impulses driving the foreign policy—why “Globalism” is treated as a dirty word.

4. The Economic Architect: Robert Lighthizer

As the key thinker behind the tariff strategy, Lighthizer explains the fusion of economic security and national security.

The Analysis: He posits that a nation that outsources its industrial base to a rival (China) ceases to be sovereign. The Trump Doctrine’s protectionism isn’t just about jobs; it’s a national security strategy to force “decoupling.”

Why read him: To understand why tariffs are used as diplomatic weapons and why the doctrine rejects “free trade” in favor of “balanced trade.”

5. The “Cold War” Realist: Niall Ferguson

Ferguson places the doctrine in the context of a “Second Cold War.”

The Analysis: He often compares the current strategy to the Nixon-Kissinger era—specifically the attempt to split the Russia-China axis (reverse Kissinger). He analyzes the doctrine’s transactional nature as a necessary adaptation to a world where the U.S. is no longer the sole hyperpower.

Why read him: For the “Grand Strategy” view. He assesses whether the tactical moves (like pressuring Europe or courting Russia) actually add up to a coherent geopolitical win.

6. The “Restrainer”: Sumantra Maitra

A leading voice at The American Conservative, Maitra articulates the “Dormant NATO” or “Burden Shifting” aspect of the doctrine.

The Analysis: He argues for “Realism with Huntingtonian characteristics”—the idea that the U.S. should defend its core civilizational sphere (the Western Hemisphere) but force Europe to defend itself.

Why read him: To understand the specific mechanics of how the U.S. plans to downsize its footprint in Europe without fully leaving NATO.

Posted in America | Comments Off on What Is The Trump Doctrine?

The Ferguson Effect

I wrote this with help from Gemini:

In the immediate aftermath of the 2014 Ferguson protests and the subsequent rise in homicides in several major cities (including St. Louis and Baltimore), the media coverage was defined by a stark partisan divide.

The term “Ferguson Effect” was popularized by Manhattan Institute fellow Heather Mac Donald in a May 2015 Wall Street Journal op-ed. Conservative outlets (Fox News, National Review, WSJ Editorial Board) embraced the theory immediately. Their coverage framed it as a dire warning: demonizing police was causing officers to disengage (“de-policing”), leading directly to emboldened criminals and deadlier streets.

Major outlets like The New York Times, The Washington Post, and Vox initially treated the theory with deep skepticism, often labeling it a “myth” or “debunked.” Their coverage focused on the lack of national data. Because crime rates were not rising uniformly in every city, these outlets argued the spikes were localized anomalies rather than a systemic “effect.”

A prevailing narrative in 2015 was that the Ferguson Effect was a right-wing talking point designed to shield police from necessary reform. Columnists frequently cited the long-term historical decline in crime to suggest panic was premature.

A major media flashpoint occurred in late 2015 when FBI Director James Comey validated the theory (calling it a “chill wind” blowing through law enforcement), putting him at odds with the Obama White House. This forced mainstream outlets to cover the theory not just as a conservative hypothesis, but as a serious internal government debate.

As academic studies began to catch up with the news cycle, the coverage became less dismissive but more fragmented.

MSM coverage began to acknowledge that de-policing was happening in specific cities (like Chicago and Baltimore) and was correlated with crime spikes. However, the framing shifted. Instead of blaming “anti-police rhetoric” (the conservative frame), outlets like The Atlantic and The Washington Post often framed it as a “crisis of legitimacy” or a breakdown in trust between communities and police.

Coverage of studies (such as those by Richard Rosenfeld) highlighted that while a universal Ferguson Effect didn’t exist, a “version” of it was real in cities with intense unrest. MSM headlines often used phrases like “Mixed Results” or “Complicated Truth” rather than the flat denials of 2015.

The massive spike in homicides in 2020 (a ~30% increase nationally) following the murder of George Floyd and the subsequent protests fundamentally altered the coverage.

Post-2020, it became impossible for the MSM to deny the correlation between intense scrutiny, police pullback, and rising violence. However, many mainstream outlets avoided using the term “Ferguson Effect,” which carried conservative baggage. Instead, reports focused on “police staffing shortages,” “recruitment crises,” and “morale issues.” The phenomenon—officers leaving the force or stopping proactive work—was reported widely, but often framed as a labor/HR crisis or a result of “officer burnout” rather than a political consequence of reform rhetoric.

In 2020/2021, coverage of a study by Harvard economist Roland Fryer (which found that investigations into police departments following viral incidents led to thousands of excess felonies due to de-policing) forced a moment of reckoning. Centrist outlets covered this as “uncomfortable evidence” that the original theory had merit.

In 2024 and 2025, the coverage has shifted again. With crime rates now falling from their 2020–2022 peaks, liberal MSM (MSNBC, CNN, NYT) is heavily focused on the “Perception Gap”—reporting that voters feel unsafe despite data showing crime is down. Conservative media continues to argue that crime remains above 2014 levels and that the “soft-on-crime” policies (a derivative of the Ferguson Effect argument) are still doing damage.

The MSM coverage moved from denial (2015) to localized acceptance (2017) to rebranded validation (2020). While outlets like the New York Times rarely use the specific phrase “Ferguson Effect” affirmatively, their reporting on the “police recruitment crisis” and the link between officer withdrawal and violence now mirrors the core mechanics of the theory they originally dismissed.

Posted in Journalism | Comments Off on The Ferguson Effect

Age and health concerns about Joe Biden

The Wikipedia entry title seems like weak tea: “Age and health concerns about Joe Biden.”

This employs a classic Wikipedia neutralization tactic: framing a subject as a discussion about a thing, rather than the thing itself. By calling it “concerns,” the title attributes the issue to public perception rather than asserting a medical or political reality.

Wikipedia’s “Neutral Point of View” (NPOV) policy generally forces titles to be descriptive but non-judgmental.

Using “Concerns about [Subject]” is a standard Wikipedia workaround. It avoids validating the premise (that he has declined) and instead documents that other people are worried about it. It treats the issue as a static topic of debate rather than an active crisis or medical event. Editors likely avoided terms like “Decline” or “Impairment” to avoid violating policies against “original research” or diagnosing living people (similar to the Goldwater Rule).

For comparison, Wikipedia uses similarly distant language for other leaders. For example, Donald Trump’s section on mental health is often buried under “Public image” or “Medical history” rather than having a standalone “Decline” article. Wikipedia generally resists titles that sound like newspaper headlines (e.g., “Biden’s Decline”) in favor of encyclopedic, albeit dry, descriptors.

Posted in Wikipedia | Comments Off on Age and health concerns about Joe Biden

The Top Ten Stories The MSM Played Down For Fear Of Helping Trump

Mark Halperin writes:

National reporters ping-pong between policy detail and political intrigue. And always, lurking beneath, is the unmistakable tension: journalists know this is a huge story but fear amplifying it in ways that could benefit Trump politically.

Mainstream media institutions often practice “status closure” by closing ranks to protect preferred narratives and exclude information that validates their political adversaries.

Here are the top ten stories of the past decade that critics argue were minimized, suppressed, or “slow-walked” because amplifying them risked politically benefiting Donald Trump, according to Gemini.

This list aligns with the sociological mechanism Halperin identifies: the fear that reporting the truth is a “political act” if it benefits the wrong faction.

1. The Hunter Biden Laptop (October 2020)

The Story: A laptop abandoned by the son of the Democratic nominee contained evidence of influence peddling and drug use.

The Suppression: Fearing a repeat of the 2016 “Comey Letter” or “Clinton Emails” that might tip the election to Trump, major outlets (and tech platforms) actively blocked the story, labeling it “Russian disinformation” without evidence.

Why they feared amplifying it: It directly challenged the “adults are back in charge” narrative and validated Trump’s accusations of Biden family corruption.

2. The Wuhan Lab Leak Theory (2020–2021)

The Story: The hypothesis that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory accident in Wuhan rather than a wet market.

The Suppression: Because Trump embraced the theory (often using inflammatory language), the media instinctively categorized it as a “conspiracy theory” or “racist.” Scientific viability was sacrificed to deny Trump a narrative win.

Why they feared amplifying it: It would have vindicated Trump’s geopolitics regarding China and his skepticism of the global health establishment.

3. Biden’s Cognitive Decline (2020–June 2024)

The Story: Visible evidence of President Biden’s slowing mental acuity, confusion, and physical frailty.

The Suppression: For years, videos of these moments were labeled “cheap fakes” or “right-wing misinformation.” The press pool largely adhered to an unwritten rule not to focus on his mental fitness until the June 2024 debate made it impossible to ignore.

Why they feared amplifying it: It neutralized the primary argument against Trump (that he was unfit/unstable) and suggested the “caretaker” presidency was a facade.

4. The DNC Funding of the Steele Dossier (2017–2022)

The Story: The revelation that the infamous dossier sparking the Russia investigation was not high-level intel, but opposition research paid for by the Clinton Campaign (via Perkins Coie).

The Suppression: While the dossier’s salacious details were amplified 24/7, the mundane reality of its provenance was treated as a “process detail” and buried for years.

Why they feared amplifying it: It revealed that the media had spent years breathless over a partisan hit-job, vindicating Trump’s claim of a “witch hunt.”

5. The “Mostly Peaceful” Riots (Summer 2020)

The Story: The extent of the arson, property damage, and violence that accompanied the George Floyd protests ($1–2 billion in damages).

The Suppression: Reporters famously stood in front of burning buildings describing protests as “mostly peaceful.” The violence was contextualized as “the voice of the unheard” rather than criminal disorder.

Why they feared amplifying it: Visuals of chaos in Democrat-run cities were precisely the campaign imagery Trump needed for his “Law and Order” platform.

6. The Border Crisis Numbers (2021–2024)

The Story: Record-breaking numbers of illegal crossings and the logistical collapse of border towns under the Biden administration.

The Suppression: Coverage was sporadic and often focused on the “humanitarian” aspect rather than the “national security” or “enforcement failure” aspect. The “kids in cages” outrage, ubiquitous under Trump, largely vanished despite similar conditions.

Why they feared amplifying it: The border was Trump’s signature issue. Admitting it was a disaster would be an admission that his “Wall” rhetoric had a point.

7. “Transitory” Inflation (2021–2022)

The Story: The onset of structural inflation caused by supply chain breaks and massive government spending.

The Suppression: Media outlets largely adopted the administration’s talking point that inflation was “transitory” or a “high-class problem,” dismissing working-class concerns as anecdotal.

Why they feared amplifying it: Economic misery is the fastest way to kill a presidency. Validating the “Bidenflation” narrative risked handing Congress back to the GOP (and eventually Trump).

8. Crime Spikes in Major Cities (2020–2024)

The Story: Significant rises in carjackings, retail theft, and violent crime in major metropolitan areas.

The Suppression: Stories were often framed around “perceptions of crime” vs. data, or dismissed as “right-wing panic.” Videos of smash-and-grab robberies were treated as isolated incidents rather than a trend.

Why they feared amplifying it: It indicted the “Progressive Prosecutor” movement and validated conservative critiques of blue-state governance.

9. The Minnesota “Feeding Our Future” Scandal (2022–Present)

The Story: As Halperin notes, a massive $250M+ (potentially billions) fraud ring involving immigrant-run nonprofits.

The Suppression: Local and national media were slow to investigate, fearing accusations of Islamophobia or racism given the involvement of the Somali community and Rep. Omar’s district.

Why they feared amplifying it: It is a tailor-made “MAGA narrative”: Diversity initiatives providing cover for massive theft of taxpayer funds.

10. The Afghan Withdrawal Debacle (August 2021)

The Story: The chaotic, deadly, and humiliating exit from Afghanistan, leaving behind allies and equipment.

The Suppression: While it was covered intensely during the event, the media pivot away from it was rapid. There was little sustained investigative follow-up on the decision-making failures compared to scandals of previous eras.

Why they feared amplifying it: It shattered the “Competence” brand of the Biden administration just months into the term, dangerously validating Trump’s isolationist foreign policy instincts.

Posted in Journalism | Comments Off on The Top Ten Stories The MSM Played Down For Fear Of Helping Trump

The MSM Hates That The Minnesota Somali Fraud Scandal Helps Trump

Mark Halperin writes:

Even liberal operatives admit privately that if one were designing a scandal tailor-made for right-wing outrage, the end result would look a lot like this one — not least because of the major role in the scandal played by her fellow members of the Somali-American community, a ripe and frequent target for President Trump himself…

National reporters ping-pong between policy detail and political intrigue. And always, lurking beneath, is the unmistakable tension: journalists know this is a huge story but fear amplifying it in ways that could benefit Trump politically.

This is a brutal, high-velocity dissection of what happens when a “high-trust” bureaucratic culture collides with “industrial-scale” fraud—and it reads like a vindication of the sociological theories I’ve been tracking, particularly regarding status closure and the shifting cultural guardrails I discussed in the context of Jacob Savage’s essays.

Mark Halperin is framing this not just as a financial crime, but as a collapse of the administrative state’s legitimacy.

The most fascinating layer here is how the fraud was allowed to metastasize to a potential $9 billion scale (a massive escalation from the earlier “Feeding Our Future” baseline of $250 million).

This is a textbook case of bureaucrotic status closure:

The In-Group (The Bureaucracy): The Minnesota state agencies and political class (Walz, Omar, the DFL machine) formed a status group defined by “compassion” and “equity.” To maintain their moral status, they had to view scrutiny of immigrant-run nonprofits as “racially motivated” or “Islamophobic.”

The Exclusion: By defining skepticism as a moral failing (racism), they effectively excluded auditors and whistleblowers from the decision-making process. The “ideological rigidity” Halperin mentions is simply the mechanism used to close ranks.

The Result: A loophole “the size of Lake Superior” wasn’t just missed; it was structurally invisible because seeing it would require the bureaucracy to violate its own internal status codes.

This scenario fits the “Lost Generation” narrative perfectly. You have a legacy system (Minnesota’s state government, rooted in Scandinavian-style high-trust assumptions) being dismantled by what Halperin calls “grifters, middlemen and opportunists.”

It illustrates a transition from a society governed by implicit norms (honor, shame, civic duty) to one governed by explicit exploitation. The “grifters” realized that the state’s oversight mechanisms were vestigial—designed for a population that wouldn’t dream of faking a childcare center—and they acted accordingly. The state’s inability to react until “Washington and the press forced the matter” highlights the paralysis of the old guard.

The article highlights a specific, combustible dynamic between the 47th President (Trump) and Ilhan Omar.

Trump’s move to freeze federal funding (via HHS) is a “nuclear option” that bypasses the media narrative. It forces the state government to either collapse the program or admit the fraud.

Halperin notes that for conservatives, Omar isn’t necessarily the thief, but the patron. In political theory, this is the difference between individual guilt and systemic patronage. The accusation is that her political machine relies on these networks, making her “ideologically complicit” even if her hands are clean legally.

Governor Walz is trapped in the “process” language of a mid-century administrator (“process improvements”), while Trump and the modern media cycle are using the language of “war” (“corruption,” “chaos”). It is an asymmetrical conflict.

Halperin—a veteran of the old media establishment—is pointing out the obsolescence of his own former industry. The fact that a “video investigation by YouTuber Nick Shirley” did more to ignite this wildfire than traditional journalism proves the institutional rot of the legacy press. Halperin explicitly states that journalists “fear amplifying it in ways that could benefit Trump.” This is another form of status closure: the media restricts information flow to protect a political outcome, which paradoxically destroys their own credibility and fuels the “Red quadrants” of digital media.

The article depicts a perfect storm:

Economic: A massive transfer of wealth ($9B) from taxpayers to a specific network.

Cultural: A clash between identity politics and accountability.

Institutional: The total failure of a “blue state” model to police its own distribution channels.

Posted in Journalism, Minnesota, Somalia | Comments Off on The MSM Hates That The Minnesota Somali Fraud Scandal Helps Trump

Will Trump Attack The Mexican Cartels?

I like the Venezuela attack.

I don’t support it, but I like it. If Obama or Biden had done this, I would have hated it.

This is my aesthetic reaction to politics. I enjoy the spectacle of American power asserting itself but I am not intellectually signing off on the policy.

What’s going on?

One. I root for my team. I am on team MAGA.

Two. Trump is simply more effective at execution. His approach—striking hard, capturing the target (Maduro), and potentially leaving—makes more sense.

Three. When Obama or Biden intervene, critics often see it as serving a “globalist” order or international norms. When Trump intervenes, his supporters often view it as serving direct US interests (e.g., stopping drugs/narco-terrorism, which was the stated justification for Operation Southern Spear). The action is the same (military force), but the perceived intent changes how it feels.

The invasion of Iraq initially felt like a movie. The statue toppling, “Shock and Awe,” the swift conventional victory—it was visceral proof of competence and strength. That is what I am feeling now with the Venezuela news. It feels good to see the “bad guy” (Maduro) get taken down. It scratches an itch for justice and decisive action that feels rare in modern bureaucracy.

Is Trump going to avoid the 2005 trap? If this Venezuela operation is just a “raid”—smash the cartel state, grab Maduro, and leave—it might remain a “win” in my mind. But if the US tries to install a new government or stays to “stabilize” Caracas, that “2005 feeling” (IEDs, chaos, mission creep) could arrive much faster this time.

Reality eventually overrides partisanship. Many Republicans who loved Bush in 2003 were exhausted by him in 2006.

I am protecting myself from future disappointment by admitting, “I like this now, but I know how this movie usually ends.”

I am getting that “2005 Iraq” anxiety about Venezuela, despite loving the 2025 Iran strike, because you can’t “Midnight Hammer” a regime change.

In Iran, the goal was to destroy a thing (centrifuges). You can do that from the air. In Venezuela, the goal (apparently) was to remove a person (Maduro) and a system.

Now that Maduro is in custody, Trump has broken the “Pottery Barn rule”—he owns Venezuela now. You can’t just fly B-2s home and say “job done” when the capital city is leaderless and potentially dissolving into cartel warfare.

I want want the Venezuela operation to feel like the Iran strike—clean, decisive, over. But the mechanics of it look more like Panama 1989 or Iraq 2003.

If Trump installs a transition council and pulls US troops out in 30 days, leaving the locals to figure it out, it fits the “Iran 2025” model. If we see a headline next month about “US peacekeepers securing Caracas neighborhoods,” that is the “Iraq 2005” nightmare restarting.

Trump’s claim that cartels “run” Mexico is hyperbole in Mexico City (the federal government still functions), but it is a factual reality in states like Sinaloa, Guerrero, and Michoacán.

In many municipalities, the police work for the cartel, not the mayor. If the cartel says “stay inside,” the town shuts down. They don’t just sell drugs; they “tax” avocado farmers, lime growers, and local businesses. That is a function of a state. In the last few Mexican election cycles, dozens of candidates were assassinated. The cartels effectively hold a primary: they decide who is allowed to run.

So, while President Sheinbaum sits in the National Palace, the operational control of roughly 30-35% of Mexican territory is effectively in cartel hands.

This is the immediate tactical nightmare for Mexican groups like the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG (Jalisco New Generation). Under Maduro, Venezuela wasn’t just a bystander; the regime was the trafficker. The “Cartel of the Suns” (military officers involved in trafficking) facilitated cocaine flights from Colombia/Venezuela to landing strips in Mexico and Central America.

If Trump has actually decapitated the Maduro regime, that “state-sponsored” protection for drug shipments vanishes overnight. Mexican cartels just lost their safest logistics partner. They will have to scramble to find new routes, likely pushing back into more dangerous or expensive paths through the Caribbean or Pacific.

The biggest impact on the Mexican cartels isn’t logistical; it’s existential. For decades, the “rules of the game” were: The US will arrest you, but it won’t invade you.

By treating the Maduro regime as a criminal enterprise and using military force to dismantle it, Trump has shattered the sovereign immunity defense.

If the US military can extract a head of state in Caracas because of “narco-terrorism,” a cartel boss in Culiacán is no longer safe just because he’s on Mexican soil.

This creates a dangerous paradox for Mexico. Mexican President Sheinbaum is now in an impossible position. Trump has proven he will use force. To prevent US drones or special forces from operating in Mexico, she may be forced to crack down on the cartels harder than she wants to (risking civil war in Mexico).

When cartels are squeezed or supply chains break, they don’t retire; they fight for what’s left. You might see a spike in violence in Mexico as factions fight over the remaining (now scarcer) supply routes, or as they turn to hyper-violence to try to deter the Mexican government from cooperating with Trump.

Trump is “directionally” correct about cartel control—they are a parallel government. The Venezuela invasion forces the Mexican cartels into a corner. They have lost a key partner (Maduro) and gained a terrifying reality: The US is now willing to treat drug trafficking as an act of war, not a crime.

The capture of Maduro significantly raises the probability of US military action against Mexican cartels, but it likely changes the shape of that action.

If you are betting on whether Trump “attacks” the cartels, the odds are now very high (over 75%). If you are betting on whether he “invades” Mexico with troops, the odds remain low (under 15%).

Here is why the Venezuela operation makes a Mexico strike more likely, and what it would actually look like:

You have to look at the groundwork laid in 2025. By designating groups like Sinaloa and CJNG as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) back in early 2025, the administration removed the legal distinction between a cartel boss and an ISIS commander.

During the buildup to the Venezuela operation (“Operation Southern Spear”), the administration argued that drug trafficking constitutes an “armed attack” on the US. That legal theory doesn’t stop at the Rio Grande. If it justified hitting Maduro, it justifies hitting the Chapitos.

Trump is unlikely to roll tanks across the Laredo bridge—that destroys the US economy (via USMCA trade) and creates a refugee crisis. Instead, he will likely use the “Pakistan Model”:

Phase 1: Cyber & Space: We likely see “unexplained” communications blackouts in Culiacán or massive hacks of cartel financial networks.

Phase 2: Over-the-Horizon Strikes: Trump will likely authorize drone strikes or cruise missiles against “fentanyl labs” in isolated rural areas. He will dare President Sheinbaum to defend a drug lab.

Phase 3: The “Soft” Raid: Special Forces raids (like the one that just grabbed Maduro) but on a smaller scale—snatch-and-grab missions for high-value targets, then extraction by helicopter before the Mexican National Guard can react.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is now in a checkmate position.

Before today: She could say “Sovereignty is absolute, no US troops.”

After today: Trump just proved he will decapitate a government (Venezuela) over this issue.

She likely has two bad choices:

Fight Back: Threaten to expel US agencies and stop trade. Trump counters with a 100% tariff (which he threatened in late 2024/early 2025). The Mexican peso collapses.

Secret Capitulation: She publicly condemns US aggression but privately allows US drones to operate, hoping to avoid a full trade war.

Trump feels vindicated by the Iran nuclear strike (2025) and the Maduro capture (2026). He likely believes the “experts” who warn about blowback are wrong. Expect a strike on Mexican soil within 6 months. He will frame it as “helping Mexico” get rid of a cancer, whether Mexico wants the help or not.

For decades, the American approach to Mexico was essentially containment: “Accept that the corruption exists, try to keep the violence south of the border, and prioritize trade (NAFTA/USMCA).”

Containment has failed. The violence didn’t stay south (fentanyl crisis), and the trade relationship now feels like it’s funding our own enemies.

If you are looking at this through the lens of the “Trump Doctrine” (punitive raids, results-over-process), here is why the “Narco-State” reality in Mexico is the final boss battle, and why it’s so much harder than Venezuela.

Right now I see a double standard.

Terrorists in the Middle East: If ISIS takes over a town in Syria, we bomb it.

Cartels in Mexico: If CJNG takes over a town in Jalisco and pumps poison into California, we respect Mexico’s “sovereignty.”

The cartels have successfully used the Mexican flag as a human shield. They know that as long as they are “criminals” and not “terrorists,” the US military stays out. Trump’s move to label them FTOs (Foreign Terrorist Organizations) rips that shield away. It reclassifies the problem from “Law Enforcement” (FBI/DEA) to “War” (JSOC/Marines).

We could sanction Venezuela or bomb Iran because our economy doesn’t depend on them.

Mexico is our #1 trading partner.

The integration is so deep that if Trump shuts down the border to squeeze the cartels, he also shuts down US auto plants in Michigan and Texas within days.

The cartels know this. They have effectively taken the North American economy hostage. This is why previous presidents (Obama, Biden, even Trump in his first term) hesitated. They weren’t just afraid of violence; they were afraid of crashing the US economy.

In Mexico, the state has largely chosen plata (silver/money) over plomo (lead/bullets).

When the Mexican military tries to fight, the cartels often outgun them or threaten their families.

So, the state often accommodates them to keep the peace.

Perhaps the US should no longer tolerate Mexico’s accommodation strategy.

If Trump decides to break this “Narco-State” dynamic, it won’t be clean like the Iran strike. It will be messy. The cartels might retaliate by attacking soft targets in the US, or Mexico might retaliate by allowing massive migrant caravans to rush the border (weaponized migration).

As long as Americans want to buy $150 billion worth of drugs annually, someone will sell it to them. If you destroy the Sinaloa Cartel tomorrow, a new group (or smaller, fragmented gangs) will likely step in to fill that vacuum within months.

However, from the perspective of the “Trump Doctrine” of punitive strikes, the goal might not actually be to stop the drugs, but to break the power.

In the 1980s, cocaine required thousands of acres of land in the Andes. You could find it and burn it. Today, fentanyl is synthetic. It is made in small labs, basements, or warehouses. If Trump wipes out every lab in Mexico, production can move to Guatemala, Ecuador, or even inside the US and Canada.

The markup on fentanyl is so astronomical (a few thousand dollars of investment yields millions in street value) that traffickers can afford to lose 90% of their product and still make a profit. You cannot bomb your way out of that math.

The objective may not be to achieve a “drug-free America” (which is impossible via airstrikes), but to demote the cartels from “paramilitary armies” to “street gangs.”

Right now, groups like CJNG have:

Armored divisions.

Anti-aircraft capabilities.

Territorial control (sovereignty).

The Military Viability: The US military is very good at destroying infrastructure and hierarchy.

We can destroy their convoys, their hardened compounds, and their leadership structures.

We can force them to go back underground.

If the goal is to stop them from running Mexico like a parallel government, military force is highly viable. You can make it impossible for them to operate openly.

If Trump succeeds in “destroying” the major cartels (Sinaloa, CJNG), the result isn’t usually peace; it’s fragmentation.

Instead of two or three giant “corporate” cartels running things smoothly, you get 50 smaller, hyper-violent gangs fighting for scraps.

This happened in Mexico after the “Kingpin Strategy” in the 2010s. They broke the big Zetas cartel, and the violence actually increased because the smaller splinter groups were more chaotic and less disciplined.

If the border becomes a war zone and the Mexican supply chain is severed, the market efficiency suggests the supply chain will simply shorten.

Production might move to the US.

If you can make fentanyl in a kitchen in Culiacán, you can make it in a kitchen in Detroit or rural Oregon.

By destroying the Mexican “middleman,” we might inadvertently domesticate the production, bringing the labs (and the toxic waste and local violence) onto US soil.

The Verdict:

Viability of stopping drugs? Near zero. The market always wins.

Viability of breaking the Cartels’ military power? High. We can smash their ability to act like a state.

Posted in America, Drugs, Mexico, Venezuela | Comments Off on Will Trump Attack The Mexican Cartels?