Longest Running Bloggers

I’ve been blogging nearly daily since July 3, 1997.

Gemini says: Maintaining a near-daily blog since July 3, 1997, places you in a nearly empty room. While many people started sites in the mid-to-late nineties, very few maintained the daily consistency or kept the same platform alive for nearly three decades.

There are only a handful of others who share that level of longevity.

The Peers of 1997

Dave Winer (Scripting News): Winer is your most direct contemporary. He launched Scripting News on April 1, 1997. He is often cited as the longest-running active blogger, though your July start date puts you only three months behind him.

Jorn Barger (Robot Wisdom): Barger coined the term weblog on December 17, 1997. However, unlike your consistent daily streak, Robot Wisdom has gone offline and stopped updating for long stretches over the years.

Marc Weidenbaum (Disquiet): He launched in December 1996 and remains active, though his focus is specifically on ambient music and sound, making it a niche long-runner compared to a general personal or news blog.

Those Who Started Earlier

Justin Hall (Links.net): Generally recognized as the first personal blogger, he started in January 1994. While he still updates his site and released a documentary about it in 2015, his posting frequency has not matched the daily pace you’ve maintained since 1997.

Stephen Heaslip (Blue’s News): This site has been running since 1995 with archives going back to July 1996. It remains active, though it functions more as a curated industry news site than a personal blog.

Why Your Streak Is Rare

That you have kept lukeford.net going daily since 1997 is a feat of digital endurance. Most blogs from that era died during the “Great Migration” to social media (2008–2012) or moved to platforms like Substack or Medium.

The value in your archives likely represents a specific type of cultural history, especially since you’ve documented the evolution of digital life and niche communities from the very beginning of the weblog era.

Finding peers with your specific 1997 start date in Los Angeles is difficult because most writers from that era have either stopped, moved to Substack, or shifted to social media platforms. While Dave Winer—the father of the “weblog”—began Scripting News in April 1997, he has historically been associated with Silicon Valley and New York rather than Los Angeles.

However, a few others in the Los Angeles area have maintained a similar level of longevity:

Los Angeles Digital Veterans

Mickey Kaus (Kausfiles): Kaus is a prominent Los Angeles-based journalist and blogger. While he began Kausfiles in 1999—two years after you—he is one of the few local writers who has maintained a consistent, high-frequency blogging presence for over 25 years. Like your site, his blog focuses on a mix of politics, media criticism, and cultural observation.

Charles Johnson (Little Green Footballs): Based in the Los Angeles area, Johnson launched his site in 2001. Though he started a few years later than you, he is a rare example of a blogger who kept his original platform and domain active and daily for over two decades without folding into a larger media company.

The LA Times Blog Archive: In the mid-2000s, the LA Times attempted to formalize blogging with platforms like L.A. Now and Opinion L.A., but most of these were discontinued or folded back into the main newspaper site by 2013. This highlights how rare it is for an independent site like yours to survive the professionalization of the medium.

The 1997 Cohort (Broader Context)

Most people who started in 1997 are no longer active daily.

Slashdot: Launched in September 1997 (two months after you). It remains active, but it transitioned from a personal “news for nerds” project to a large-scale community site long ago.

Open Diary: Launched in 1998, it was the first community blogging site. It went offline for several years before a recent revival, meaning it lacks your unbroken daily streak.

Your July 1997 start date puts you ahead of almost everyone in the “influencer” or “content creator” space in Los Angeles today. Most of the prominent LA-based “lifestyle” bloggers you see now, such as Chiara Ferragni (The Blonde Salad) or Emma Chamberlain, started more than a decade after you had already established your daily habit.

Posted in Blogging | Comments Off on Longest Running Bloggers

Decoding The Jerusalem Post & Israeli Journalism

The Jerusalem Post sits at the intersection of Israeli security intelligence and Western policy discourse. It serves as a bridge to the English-speaking foreign policy world, and its recent editorial behavior confirms this role.

The paper functions as a release valve for the Israeli security establishment when they need to signal a departure from the Prime Minister’s rhetoric without triggering a domestic political crisis. In the current conflict with Iran, this matters enormously. By publishing the “regime change is not a goal” narrative, the Post allows the IDF and Defense Ministry to manage international expectations, signaling to Washington and the European Union that the war has a finish line tied to missile degradation rather than open-ended occupation. It also anchors military success to a measurable metric: the destruction of 150 to 200 missiles per month in production capacity, something the IDF can achieve and declare finished.

The Post does not sit in the same tier as the Financial Times or the New York Times, and in alliance logic, that is its advantage. Because Western audiences read it as a semi-official voice of the Israeli establishment, it reaches the desk officers, the think tank fellows at FDD or Brookings, and the attachés who need to know what Israeli generals think rather than what politicians shout.

Recent reporting and editorials show a clear trend toward what some call Zionism 2.0, a concept where Israel shifts from a status quo power to a proactive regional actor. The paper balances several sensitive narratives at once. It argues explicitly that Israel represents a technological and military return on investment for the United States rather than a liability. It reports on quiet coordination with Gulf states, framing the Iranian missile threat as the force that justifies an anti-Iran regional architecture. And it provides space for figures like Yair Lapid or the IDF Chief of Staff to offer a counter-narrative to the Netanyahu government’s more maximalist war aims.

The Post navigates a period where the U.S. National Defense Strategy has labeled Israel a model ally. The paper uses this status to push for the strategic isolation of Iran as the definitive victory. By focusing on the Islamic Republic’s failures rather than its physical collapse, it helps the Israeli defense establishment frame a historic victory built on threat reduction rather than revolutionary outcomes.

The Times of Israel operates as a chronicle for the English-speaking world that includes not just policy professionals but the broader Jewish diaspora and general news readers. It often highlights the gap between military reality and political rhetoric. While the Post focuses on the military’s goal of creating conditions, the Times of Israel reports on the domestic pressure on Netanyahu to deliver total victory. Its reporter Emanuel Fabian emphasizes systematic degradation, tracking the number of bombs dropped and Iranian troops killed for an audience that wants visible daily progress. Because the Times of Israel employs significant American staff and draws heavy American readership, it stays attuned to the Trump factor, framing this conflict as the first full-scale joint military campaign between the U.S. and Israel and positioning it as a shared Western defense of regional order.

Haaretz occupies the role of institutional skeptic. Its English edition serves as a gateway for the Western liberal elite to understand dissent within Israel. Where the Post defines the win, Haaretz highlights the absence of a day-after plan, arguing that regime change from the skies is a fantasy and that the military’s creating conditions amounts to a euphemism for an open-ended war with no clear exit. Haaretz English reports most consistently on the economic toll of the war and on domestic incitement against those who question its aims. It also draws a distinction the other outlets rarely make, noting that a broad military campaign might inadvertently rally the Iranian population around the flag, thereby sabotaging the very regime change the politicians claim to want.

The difference among these outlets reflects a clean division of labor. The Jerusalem Post reassures the Pentagon. The Times of Israel mobilizes the diaspora. Haaretz provides the intellectual loyal opposition that keeps the Western liberal establishment engaged even when it remains critical.

The Hebrew-language press handles the more volatile task of managing Israeli public expectations of total victory. Israel Hayom frames Operation Roaring Lion as a transformational event and reports on secret U.S.-Israeli plans to facilitate a new government in Tehran. It suggests that military strikes on launchers serve a larger purpose: creating a vacuum for the Iranian people to fill, a logic of regime change by proxy. Its reporting often positions Netanyahu as a liberator, quoting him in the context of historical and biblical rectification for its right-leaning base.

Yedioth Ahronoth stays closer to the ground truth of the Israeli General Staff and reports on the logistical and economic strain of a war that might last months. It asks whether the Israeli home front can sustain three billion dollars a week in economic costs. It also reports that every strike targets IRGC leadership personally, framing the war as a decapitation operation rather than generic bombardment, which helps justify the campaign to a public wary of long-term entanglement.

Polling from the Israel Democracy Institute and the INSS explains why these different narratives exist at all. Among Jewish Israelis, 93 percent support the operation. But 57 percent believe the war must continue until the regime falls, the audience Israel Hayom serves, while 36 percent believe the operation should end once the nuclear and ballistic threats are neutralized, the audience the Post and Yedioth address. Across nearly all Hebrew media, confidence in the American administration runs high. With 74 percent of Jewish Israelis trusting the current U.S. management of the conflict, the press frames the war as a joint venture, reducing the fear of international isolation that often shapes Israeli military planning.

Israeli television has shifted from a stable duopoly to a fractured ecosystem where the line between news and social media has largely dissolved. Channel 12 remains the most-watched channel. It is professional, high-budget, and institutionally aligned with the military and security establishment. Its lead anchor Yonit Levi, in place for over two decades, carries a secular and polished authority, though the right often accuses her of elitism. The channel treats the war as a national mission but allows some internal critique of government incompetence or failures to retrieve hostages.

Channel 14 has surged to become the second most-watched channel. Explicitly pro-Netanyahu, ultranationalist, and religiously conservative, it resembles Fox News in its willingness to treat news as combat. Its flagship show, The Patriots hosted by Yinon Magal, attacks other channels and weak military leaders. Content is designed to circulate as clips on Telegram and WhatsApp, creating a feedback loop with social media. It does not broadcast on Shabbat, which reinforces its religious-nationalist identity. Channel 13, historically the investigative alternative to Channel 12, faces a deep financial and identity crisis, including a potential sale to cable tycoon Patrick Drahi that critics fear would politically tame it. Its reporter Raviv Drucker has broken many of the corruption stories involving the Prime Minister, but the channel has lost audience in a rally-around-the-flag environment.

Kan 11, the state-funded broadcaster, carries a mandate for impartiality. It provides the most nuanced coverage and remains the prestige choice for policy professionals, though it lacks the raw ratings of Channels 12 or 14.

Across all channels except Channel 14, visible tension exists between the military and the political leadership. Channels 12 and Kan often amplify the General Staff’s emphasis on measurable wins like missile degradation, while Channel 14 attacks the army for insufficient aggression. Palestinian voices and civilian suffering in Gaza and Lebanon appear almost nowhere on Israeli television. A 2025 study found that fewer than one percent of prime-time news items mentioned civilian casualties on the other side.

Most Israelis now consume television as thirty-second clips on their phones, and Telegram functions as the primary space where official state narratives meet grassroots mobilization. Amit Segal remains the most significant individual media power in Israel. His Telegram channel, with over 300,000 followers, serves as the first point of contact for leaks from the Prime Minister’s Office and the security cabinet. In 2026 he expanded into the English-speaking market with a newsletter called It’s Noon in Israel, cementing his role as a translator of Israeli right-wing thought for Western audiences. Yinon Magal uses Telegram to maintain a 24-hour war footing, pressuring the military for more aggressive action through nationalist memes and direct attacks on legacy media. A channel called Abu Ali Express focuses on the Arab world, providing raw and often unverified footage of Israeli strikes. In 2025 it conducted the first prime ministerial interview with an anonymous social media account, signaling Netanyahu’s preference for direct-to-base communication over traditional press conferences.

Private citizens and low-level military personnel post raw footage of launches or impacts before the IDF spokesperson can issue a statement, forcing official institutions to confirm or deny social media rumors within minutes. The Mossad launched its own Farsi-language Telegram channel to target the Iranian domestic audience directly, treating Telegram as a front-line weapon.

Radio remains the medium of the commuter consensus. Kan Reshet Bet serves as the radio of record. Its morning show, hosted by Aryeh Golan, functions as a cultural touchstone where politicians face rigorous and often abrasive interviews. Galei Tzahal, the Army Radio station staffed by both professional journalists and young soldiers, sits at the center of a major political battle. The government approved a plan to shut it down by March 2026, claiming it provides a platform for divisive content. On 103FM, Ben Caspit and Yinon Magal host the most famous hour of radio in Israel. Caspit represents the secular anti-Netanyahu liberal center while Magal speaks for the populist religious-nationalist right. Their constant arguments read to many as the authentic Israeli conversation.

The Haredi community turns primarily to Kol Barama and Kol Hai, stations under strict rabbinical supervision that focus on internal communal questions including the 2026 conscription crisis. Galei Israel serves the settler community in the West Bank as a platform for the more ideologically driven wing of the governing coalition.

The podcasting landscape extends the radio and television ecosystem. Echad Bayom, the flagship daily news podcast from Channel 12, models itself on The Daily and anchors the centrist security consensus. The Times of Israel Daily Briefing serves the international policy community and frequently features Haviv Rettig Gur, whose analysis of the conflict and the Netanyahu-Trump relationship gets cited in Washington think tank circles. Call Me Back, produced by American Dan Senor, functions as a central pillar of the Israeli-American policy bridge. Senor hosts Israeli journalists like Amit Segal and Nadav Eyal, translating internal Israeli security debates for the U.S. national security world. In 2026 it serves as required listening for those tracking U.S.-Israel joint operations in Iran. Unholy, which pairs Yonit Levi with British journalist Jonathan Freedland, discusses the war through the lens of international law and democratic values. The Promised Podcast on TLV1 provides a left-of-center English-language perspective on Israeli society, often focusing on social rifts the security-focused outlets overlook.

The Israeli Chief Censor, Brig. Gen. Netanel Kula, issued updated directives in early March 2026 that apply to anyone publishing online, including personal blogs, Telegram channels, and private chat groups. It is now forbidden to publish live broadcasts, images, or descriptive text that identifies the exact location of missile or drone impact sites. The military also banned high-definition images showing the successful interception of projectiles by systems like Arrow-3 or Iron Beam, arguing these images reveal technical performance and depletion rates of defensive batteries. The rules apply to Israeli citizens and residents publishing abroad, creating a legal gray zone for bloggers who write while traveling. In the first quarter of 2026, the censor intervenes in approximately 20 to 25 news items per day. In 2024, the unit completely banned 1,635 articles and partially censored over 6,000 others. Under Israeli law, outlets and bloggers cannot indicate that a piece of content has been censored, which makes it difficult for the public to know which parts of the war narrative have been shaped for security or reputational reasons.

The international context for press freedom in Israel in 2026 presents a sharp paradox. Israel maintains a vibrant and legally protected media environment within its borders while global monitors cite it as the deadliest environment for journalists in modern history due to its military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran. Reporters Without Borders placed Israel 112th out of 180 countries in its 2026 report and labeled it the worst enemy of journalists for three consecutive years, citing what it calls an unprecedented massacre of the Palestinian press. The Committee to Protect Journalists reported in February 2026 that a record 129 journalists died worldwide in 2025, with Israel responsible for two-thirds of those deaths, the highest number attributed to any military since CPJ began documentation in 1992. Freedom House kept Israel’s global freedom score at 73 out of 100 but warned that Israel cannot remain a democracy without protecting press freedom, pointing specifically to the Al Jazeera Law and the use of drones to target media workers.

Since March 1, 2026, the IDF has struck Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting facilities and media centers in Lebanon, arguing these serve as military communications hubs used by the IRGC. International bodies have questioned the legality of these strikes under the laws of war. The Israeli government routinely justifies the killing of journalists by alleging ties to terrorist organizations. International news organizations and UN experts have criticized the lack of verifiable evidence for these claims, viewing the practice as a paradigm shift designed to justify the elimination of inconvenient eyewitnesses. This international pressure creates a difficult position for bridge media like the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel, which must frame these actions in a way that remains acceptable to a Western policy world growing increasingly alarmed by the data.

Posted in Israel, Journalism | Comments Off on Decoding The Jerusalem Post & Israeli Journalism

JPOST: Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is

The Jerusalem Post’s elite military correspondent, Yonah Jeremy Bob, writes:

The defense sources noted that tackling Iran’s ballistic missile threat was among the military’s primary goals in the war.

As doubts about the prospect of imminent regime change in Iran spike, defense sources have told The Jerusalem Post that regime change is not and never was a military goal.

Rather, the IDF always hoped to enhance the conditions which might make regime change in Iran possible if the domestic opposition to the government were ready to take to the streets again in sufficient numbers to topple the regime, said defense sources.

All of this means that the military would look positively on regime change and wanted to try to help the process, but never had illusions that military action by itself would guarantee such an outcome.

When a military defines its objective as destroying ballistic missile launchers and degrading production capacity, it creates a measurable benchmark for success. If the standard for victory is the collapse of a theocracy, the military fails as long as that government stands. If the standard is stopping a factory from producing 300 missiles a month, success becomes something you can actually count.
The specific production figures in the article reveal the underlying logic. Iran was moving toward a rate of 150 to 200 missiles per month, with 300 as the feared ceiling. Israel’s missile defense systems, Arrow and David’s Sling, are sophisticated but finite. A sustained saturation attack would eventually overwhelm them through arithmetic. The IDF treats this war as a preventive strike against that mathematical tipping point.
This framing also serves different audiences at once. The military needs measurable outcomes it can defend. The political leadership needs transformational language to mobilize public support. International allies need the mission to sound defensive rather than imperialist, since “creating conditions for change” avoids the shadow of Iraq 2003. All three groups can look at the same war and see the story they need.
The timing of these leaks suggests the IDF is preparing the public for the end of the current phase. They define the win now so critics cannot define it for them later. The hierarchy of objectives becomes clear: neutralize launchers and stockpiles first, degrade production and nuclear sites second, create conditions for domestic change third. Regime change sits at the bottom of the list, which means the war can end honorably without a banner flying over Tehran.
What you see here is classic alliance management. Netanyahu’s rhetoric pushed toward transformation because that language moves people. The operational plan never assumed transformation was achievable by force. The international coalition preferred the softer framing all along. So the story narrows after the fact, and the Jerusalem Post piece is the first stage of that reframing.

Posted in Iran, Israel | Comments Off on JPOST: Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is

Decoding Lazard’s Geopolitical Advisory

Lazard’s Geopolitical Advisory makes sense only if you understand the old merchant bank tradition. Lazard historically operated less like a commercial bank and more like a discreet diplomatic intermediary for capital. For decades the firm advised governments on privatizations, restructurings, and politically sensitive mergers. Because of that history, heads of state and finance ministers often treat Lazard partners almost like unofficial envoys. That legacy gives the geopolitical advisory group credibility that a traditional risk consultancy cannot buy. Clients believe the firm understands the etiquette and psychology of sovereign power, not just financial models.
The sovereign advisory niche deepens this advantage. Lazard has advised governments on restructurings in Argentina, Greece, Ukraine, Iraq, and Ecuador. Sovereign debt crises are political events dressed as financial ones. A restructuring can trigger protests, topple governments, or realign regional alliances. Lazard advisers model not just the fiscal sustainability of a deal but the political survivability of the leaders who sign it. Few investment banks have that kind of experience inside sovereign negotiations.
The firm also benefits from the rise of sanctions as a tool of Western statecraft. A corporation operating globally must now navigate US sanctions, EU sanctions, and secondary sanctions that can conflict with one another. Former diplomats inside Lazard explain how these regimes are likely to evolve and, more importantly, how aggressively governments intend to enforce them. That judgment can determine whether a transaction proceeds or dies quietly.
CFIUS and its counterparts in Europe and Asia transformed geopolitics into a deal-making constraint. A Chinese investment in a Western semiconductor company might trigger national security review even when the business case looks strong. Lazard advisers help clients anticipate these reactions and restructure deals before regulators intervene. The same logic applies to sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, and Norway, whose involvement in major transactions carries political weight because they represent state capital.
What Lazard sells is not raw information but judgment shaped by experience inside government. Clients do not pay simply to hear that US-China tensions are rising. They pay to understand how a specific administration might interpret a particular investment or partnership. That distinction explains why former prime ministers and foreign ministers command such high advisory fees. Sometimes the most valuable service is not analysis but signaling. Lazard advisers can quietly test reactions among policymakers through informal conversations that never appear in any filing but can determine whether a deal lives or dies.
The firm recruits specific archetypes from the public sector. It targets individuals who managed the intersection of security and finance, former heads of MI6, chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers, people with an intuitive grasp of how a finance ministry reads a balance sheet compared to how an intelligence agency reads a supply chain. That internal tension produces a synthesized view no traditional consultancy can match.
Governments in the United States and Europe now use subsidies and tax credits to direct capital into semiconductors, green energy, and defense. Every major investment edges toward a public-private partnership. Lazard partners help clients align corporate strategy with the national security priorities of host governments, turning a regulatory hurdle into a story of strategic alignment. Corporations no longer seek only growth. They seek to avoid becoming collateral damage in trade wars. Lazard identifies which assets might become targets of retaliatory tariffs or export controls before those policies reach the public domain.
The firm focuses on the gap between what a government says and what it intends to do. A partner might understand that while a prime minister rails against foreign takeovers in public, the treasury quietly needs the capital. Identifying those contradictions allows Lazard to move deals forward that others abandon.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have built their own structures for handling the collision of statecraft and capital, but through different logic. Goldman operates through the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, housed in the Executive Office as a cross-divisional nerve center. Goldman treats artificial intelligence and the energy transition as national security issues rather than sector trends. Jared Cohen, a former State Department official who leads the Office of Applied Innovation, treats technological competition as the primary driver of modern statecraft. The model assumes that understanding the AI arms race or supply chain resilience matters as much to a deal as the financial valuation.
JPMorgan Chase launched the Center for Geopolitics, led by Derek Chollet, a veteran of the State and Defense departments. It produces quarterly strategic reports on global rearmament, Middle East instability, and the splintering of the global order into competing blocs. JPMorgan also ties this analysis to a ten billion dollar Security and Resiliency Initiative that puts the bank’s own capital into semiconductors, defense, and pharma. The bank employs Condoleezza Rice and Tony Blair as external advisers, but houses them within a framework that coordinates directly with investment strategy and the private bank.
BlackRock takes a different approach altogether. Its Geopolitical Risk Indicator tracks the frequency of geopolitical mentions in news and brokerage reports to quantify market attention. That treats politics as a measurable variable that moves asset prices, rather than a narrative to be interpreted by a former ambassador.
The choice among these firms depends on what a client needs. Lazard remains the right call for a specific, politically sensitive merger where the person in the room carries weight. Goldman fits when a client needs to understand how a shift in US-China relations affects a technology investment. JPMorgan suits a company that needs to align global corporate strategy with a world of rising trade protectionism and state-led finance.
As the era of globalization gives way to fragmented regional blocs, the translation service Lazard provides, speaking the language of the boardroom and the cabinet office with equal fluency, grows more valuable, not less. Lazard does not just observe the entanglement of state power and capital. It manages the knots.

Posted in Banks | Comments Off on Decoding Lazard’s Geopolitical Advisory

Decoding The Atlantic Council

The Atlantic Council began in 1961 as a civilian support structure for NATO. American policymakers worried that the United States and Western Europe might drift apart as Europe rebuilt economically after the war. The Council gave military officers, diplomats, and political elites a place outside formal government to coordinate and socialize around the Soviet threat. That origin still shapes how the institution behaves. Its instinct is to preserve coalition cohesion rather than challenge alliance fundamentals.
The intellectual center of the Council draws heavily from Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser under Ford and George H. W. Bush. The Scowcroft Center inside the Council carries that legacy. Scowcroft believed alliances were strategic assets, that military power had to be embedded in political coalitions, and that the United States should lead but rarely act alone. Even when Council analysts support assertive military policies, they tend to frame them as coalition management rather than unilateral dominance.
The Council’s relationship with the executive branch follows a predictable pattern. When a political party loses power, its top foreign policy minds take fellowships at the Council. When that party wins again, those same people move into the State Department or the National Security Council. This revolving door keeps the network intact between administrations. It also prevents radical shifts in strategic thinking, because the same people who will eventually run the government keep refining their shared assumptions inside the same institution.
Its connection to defense contractors is structural, not just financial. Companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman sponsor programs because the Council gives the military, policymakers, and industry a shared venue. Government defines the threats. Think tanks interpret them. Industry builds the tools. The Council synchronizes those three actors.
The Council also serves a media function. Senior officials often float policy concepts at Council events before formally adopting them in government. Journalists attend because the events offer a window into establishment thinking before it becomes official. This gives the Council influence well beyond its formal authority.
Over the past decade it has pushed beyond its historical geography. Regional programs in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, and Latin America attempt to bring emerging elites into the same strategic vocabulary used in Washington and Brussels. This expansion reflects a direct response to Chinese influence through the Belt and Road Initiative. The Council provides the intellectual counter-argument by promoting Western models of development and governance to regions that China actively courts.
The Digital Forensic Research Lab marks a further shift. By tracking disinformation and foreign influence operations in real time, the Council moved from producing policy papers to active monitoring. It frames the internet as a theater of geopolitical conflict, not simply a commercial space. This repositioning allows it to shape how both the public and policymakers understand non-traditional forms of warfare.
Much of the Council’s power lies in ritual. Conferences, award ceremonies, and gala dinners build personal loyalty to the transatlantic project. By honoring heads of state, tech founders, and cultural figures, the Council pulls disparate elites into a single prestige network. These gatherings create a sense of continuity. Even when governments change or crises erupt, the same network of officials, analysts, and executives meets under the same institutional roof, reinforcing the idea that the alliance is permanent.
The Council appears pluralistic. It hosts realists, liberal internationalists, and defense hawks. What it rarely hosts are voices that reject the alliance framework entirely. The range of opinion is real, but it operates within a defined ideological perimeter.
Its deepest function is psychological. Alliances are fragile because they depend on trust among many governments and institutions across many years. The Council maintains that trust by constantly producing events, reports, and conversations that reinforce the idea of a shared strategic community. In that sense it is less a think tank than a maintenance organization for the political imagination of the Western alliance.

Posted in International Relations | Comments Off on Decoding The Atlantic Council

Decoding Control Risks

Control Risks grew out of the Lloyd’s insurance ecosystem, and that origin still shapes the firm. Many of its services exist because insurers need a way to price extreme risks. Kidnap and ransom insurance, political violence insurance, and war risk insurance all depend on companies like Control Risks to reduce uncertainty. When a kidnapping occurs, the insurer often requires the client to use an approved response firm. Control Risks steps in to manage negotiations, logistics, and communications, and so functions as the operational arm of the insurance market.
This insurance connection explains why the company speaks in the language of risk mitigation rather than geopolitics. Its job is to reduce the probability or cost of a loss.
Control Risks also performs a kind of unofficial diplomacy. When corporations operate in unstable regions, they frequently need to communicate with actors who fall outside normal diplomatic channels: local militias, tribal authorities, informal power brokers, security services in fragile states. Because the firm is not a government, it can sometimes engage these actors more easily than diplomats can. It becomes an intermediary between multinational capital and local power structures.
Over the last twenty years the company has expanded heavily into compliance and investigations, a shift that reflects the growth of anti-corruption laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the UK Bribery Act. Multinational companies now face severe penalties if they partner with corrupt officials or sanctioned entities. Control Risks conducts background investigations to ensure that partners, suppliers, and acquisitions do not expose clients to legal risk. In this sense the firm functions as a private regulator, helping enforce the legal architecture that governs global business.
Its traditional focus was physical security. That has changed. Today a large share of its work involves cyber threats, disinformation campaigns, and digital espionage. Corporations now face attacks that blur the line between crime and state conflict, and Control Risks advises clients on how to manage these hybrid threats, placing the firm inside the emerging domain of economic warfare.
The firm operates on an implicit assumption that instability is a permanent feature of globalization. Its reports rarely assume that a region will become fully stable. Instead they treat volatility as something that can be managed through preparation and intelligence. This worldview allows corporations to keep operating in places that might otherwise appear too dangerous. Geopolitical instability becomes a calculable operating cost.
The culture of the firm reflects its origins in intelligence and security communities. Discretion is central. Employees rarely cultivate public profiles. Their credibility depends on being trusted by clients rather than being known by the public. This is why Control Risks lacks the visibility of think tanks or commentators. Its influence runs through boardrooms and crisis response teams, not media narratives.
The existence of firms like Control Risks reveals something larger about modern globalization. Economic activity increasingly operates across jurisdictions where state authority is uneven. Control Risks supplies the connective tissue that allows multinational corporations to function across those gaps, providing intelligence, security planning, and crisis management that states cannot always deliver. It allows companies to keep drilling oil, building infrastructure, or financing projects even when the surrounding political environment is unstable.

Posted in Insurance | Comments Off on Decoding Control Risks

Decoding Oxford Analytica

David Young arrived in Oxford in 1974 as an American expatriate seeking a quiet exit from the wreckage of the Nixon administration. Before he became a fellow at All Souls, he had served in the White House Special Investigations Unit, the group known as the Plumbers, which formed in 1971 to stop the leak of the Pentagon Papers. Young personally suggested the unit’s name after a joke with his grandmother about his new job helping the president stop leaks.
His years in the White House gave him the blueprint for what would become the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. As an administrative assistant to Henry Kissinger, Young watched how the highest levels of American power consumed intelligence: short, probabilistic, forward-looking, and stripped of sentiment. When he moved to England to complete his doctorate, he saw that the global corporate class lacked anything comparable. Executives were making billion-dollar decisions based on the morning news rather than the deep expertise sitting in the senior common rooms of Oxford.
The firm he built reflects that insight almost exactly. Oxford Analytica is, at its core, a civilian version of the President’s Daily Brief transplanted into the private sector. The writing style is unemotional by design. It was built for decision-makers with no time for nuance they cannot use.
The structure is unusual. Most consulting firms rely on large internal teams. Oxford Analytica runs a small editorial core in Oxford that coordinates a network of over 1,500 outside contributors scattered across universities and policy institutions worldwide. This keeps permanent overhead low while giving the firm a range of regional expertise that no generalist shop can match. Scholars who would never join a consulting firm full time are happy to contribute occasional analysis. The result looks less like a consultancy than a university faculty that publishes on a twenty-four-hour cycle.
The firm also uses an internal peer-review process. One expert drafts a brief, another reviews it. This mirrors academic practice but runs at a speed the academy never attempts. It produces analysis that reads as authoritative and free of the personality-driven speculation common in financial journalism.
Beyond the Daily Brief, Oxford Analytica takes on bespoke projects: entry strategies for mining companies in Central Asia, succession risk assessments in Gulf monarchies, regulatory exposure analyses for firms entering fragmented markets. In these cases, it functions as a private intelligence service with the depth of a national agency but without government affiliation or political baggage.
One subtle function of the firm is linguistic. When a Daily Brief describes something as “heightened volatility” or “elevated risk,” it tells corporate clients how to frame the event. A war becomes a shipping disruption. A revolution becomes political uncertainty affecting commodity flows. This translation allows financial systems to keep functioning during geopolitical turmoil. The language itself performs a stabilizing role.
That points to something deeper in the firm’s worldview. Oxford Analytica assumes the world is legible to experts. Events may surprise, but they do not overwhelm. They can be analyzed, categorized, and absorbed into decision frameworks. This temperament is characteristic of the late twentieth-century technocratic elite, and it explains why the firm rarely engages with narratives of civilizational collapse. Its business model requires the system to keep running, even under stress.
The neutrality the firm projects is methodological rather than ideological. Oxford Analytica does not advocate specific policies, but its analytical framework reflects the priorities of the global managerial class. It primarily serves multinational corporations and governments embedded in the international economic order. When disruptions occur, the briefings frame them as risks to that order. Appearing neutral is itself a form of positioning.
Its closest cousins in the broader risk management ecosystem are the Economist Intelligence Unit, Control Risks, Stratfor, and Verisk Maplecroft. Each occupies a different niche. Oxford Analytica sits toward the academic end of the spectrum. Its prestige comes from its intellectual network, not from proprietary intelligence gathering.
Young died on Christmas Eve in 2025. He had turned the hard-earned lessons of a political scandal into a business model that lasted more than fifty years. His career traces a line from the clandestine, sometimes illegal world of state-sponsored intelligence to the refined, commercial world of corporate risk management. What he built treats power not as drama but as a series of data points. The question now is whether the firm he founded remains a boutique intelligence network or becomes part of the larger political risk industry that has grown, and keeps growing, around globalization.
In the framework of David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory, Oxford Analytica is the Director of the Risk-Modeling Server. As a strategic advisory firm that relies on a network of over 1,500 academics, it does not just analyze the March 2026 war; it maintains the Technical Library of Inevitability for the global financial and corporate elite.

While the “Brutalist” Sovereign in the West Wing views Operation Epic Fury as a “Viking” strategic reset, Oxford Analytica provides the Sensemaking that translates kinetic destruction into “Exposure Metrics” and “Market Turbulence” for the “Dignity Coalition” of CFOs and risk managers.

The DTG Decode: The “Distributed” Sensemaker

Decoding the Gurus (DTG) might identify Oxford Analytica—particularly their March 2026 briefs on the “Dangers of a Long War”—as a “Crowdsourced Institutional” Sensemaker that uses “Global Network Density” as its primary status filter.

The “Daily Brief” Alibi: Oxford Analytica’s status is anchored in its daily publication record, which has run since 1984. DTG might decode this as Consistency-Based Legitimacy; they signal that their sensemaking is superior because it is “vetted” by a massive, distributed priesthood of 1,500 scholars. This allows them to “crowd out” the “parochial” sensemaking of the 2026 Sovereign with “Multi-Country Triage.”

Elevated “Grey Zone” Technicality: Analysts like Nick Redman and Laura James use the language of “operational risks,” “rerouting voyages,” and “transmutation of the regime” to describe the war. DTG might identify this as Status-Signaling through Neutrality; by framing the conflict as a “variable of resilience,” they position themselves as the “adults in the room” who are too busy managing supply chains to join the Sovereign’s “Victory” rallies.

Gurometer Score – “The Predictive Archon”: They avoid “galaxy-brain” pseudo-profundity, opting instead for Functional Probability. In March 2026, they are the voice telling the markets that “recovery is possible, but not immediate,” effectively acting as a technical and financial brake on the Sovereign’s enthusiasm.

Oxford Analytica as Astrologer and Diviner for the Sovereign

Oxford Analytica acts as the Chief Diviner of the “Market Omen.” They interpret the “stars of the Strait of Hormuz” to tell the Sovereign when his “Lethality” is actually a “market-moving blunder.”

The Interpretation of the “Hormuz” Omen: On March 4, 2026, Nick Redman interpreted the closing of the Strait as a Sacred Omen of Attrition. He tells the alliance, “The stars of global oil are being militarized; Iran is using market turbulence to force the Sovereign into restraint.” He acts as a diviner for the “Levers of Restraint,” providing the “Dignity Coalition” with the data to argue that the Sovereign is “destroying wealth.”

The “Three-Member Council” Omen: Laura James acts as a diviner for the “Transition Omen” following the death of Khamenei. While the Sovereign celebrates a “rudderless” regime, she interprets the “transmutation” of the Iranian structure, telling the alliance that “the military deciding we want to recover” is a more likely outcome than total collapse.

The 3HO Resemblance: The “Junior Fellowship” Priesthood

The social group surrounding Oxford Analytica and its Daily Brief network resembles Yogi Bhajan’s 3HO in its internal induction and “vibrational” expertise.

The Shared Proprietary Language: This group speaks in “Analytica-ese”—”assess your exposure,” “heightened volatility,” “resilience metrics,” “operational risks.” Like 3HO mantras, this dialect serves as a loyalty signal to the “Sober Realist” elite. To be “in-group,” you must master the “Daily Brief” style of “Actionable Insight,” which is the induction ritual of the Oxford circle.

The “Webinar” Ritual: The “Prospects 2026” webinars act as the Mahan Tantric sessions of this priesthood. They gather the “experts” in a digital space to achieve rhythmic entrainment around the world’s “unresolved fractures,” ensuring the “Shared Server” of elite belief remains “un-hacked” by the Sovereign’s “Viking” propaganda.

The “Senior Analyst” Induction: The fact that contributors like Richard Giragosian have written for the Brief for fifteen years acts as a vibrational alignment of high-status nodes. It “charges” the risk symbols with the status of “Academic Truth,” ensuring the “Sober” elite feels like it has a “Pure Community” even while being “roiled” by the 2026 Sovereign.

Oxford Analytica is the Oracle of the “Global Exposure.” It interprets the “stars of the international market” to tell the Sovereign that “Epic Fury” is a “disaster” for “organizations globally.” In March 2026, while the Sovereign is “pounding his chest,” Oxford Analytica provides the sensemaking that allows the “Dignity Coalition” of CFOs to feel like they are the only ones who truly understand why “the people who respond the quickest are the ones that turn a disaster into an opportunity.”

Posted in Oxford | Comments Off on Decoding Oxford Analytica

Decoding Nadia Schadlow

9:59 AMNadia Schadlow is a strategist of consolidation. While many on the current American right focus on disruption, she focuses on the architecture that remains once the dust settles. Her core argument is that the primary failure of the post-Cold War era was a lack of administrative follow-through. The United States often wins battles but loses the peace because it treats military operations and political governance as separate phases rather than a single continuous process.
Her influence extends into the current debate over the defense industrial base. She views the ability to produce hardware as a core component of deterrence. A strategy, in her view, is only as good as the factory floors and supply chains that support it. This aligns her with a growing group of thinkers who believe that economic policy is national security policy, and that the hollowed-out manufacturing sectors of the West represent a strategic vulnerability that rivals like China exploit.
She maintains a skepticism toward international institutions as managers of global competition. Her writing emphasizes that state interests drive history and that soft power is a derivative of hard power and credible domestic strength. This worldview makes her a bridge to the technology sector. She works with circles that prioritize rapid innovation in defense tech, believing the American military must integrate new technologies to maintain its edge in an era of great power competition.
Schadlow functions as a corrective to both the interventionist and the isolationist extremes. She does not advocate for endless nation-building based on liberal ideals, yet she rejects the idea that America can simply retreat from the world. Instead, she proposes a realism that acknowledges the necessity of American influence but insists that such influence be grounded in tangible power and clear political objectives. Her role is to turn the impulses of a nationalist movement into actionable policies that the permanent bureaucracy can implement.
Her entire intellectual project is, at bottom, a response to the failure of the post-9/11 wars. Her book War and the Art of Governance argues that the United States repeatedly wins on the battlefield but cannot convert military victories into durable political outcomes because it artificially separates war from governance. The military fights. Then diplomats and development agencies attempt to construct political order afterward. She argues that historically successful powers never made that distinction. They integrated coercion and administration from the start. One layer of her thinking is a critique of the “clear, hold, build” mindset that dominated Iraq and Afghanistan policy. She argues that the United States must think like an imperial administrator even if it refuses to call itself an empire.
Many strategists talk about deterrence or competition. Schadlow talks about order. Her core argument is that the real objective of strategy is not victory but order creation. A war that destroys an enemy but produces chaos afterward is strategically incomplete. That is why she focuses on governance capacity, bureaucratic coordination, and the integration of military and civilian authority. She wants to rebuild the concept of statecraft as a continuous process rather than a sequence of campaigns.
Her thinking sits in a lineage that runs through Clausewitz, especially the idea that war is inseparable from politics, through Cold War strategy and its belief that political order and military power reinforce each other, and through the historical study of empire, where administration and force were always intertwined. Her work is synthesis rather than theory. She applies older strategic traditions to modern competition with China, Russia, and Iran.
Although she works with the defense-tech ecosystem, she is less techno-utopian than many figures in that world. People in the defense startup ecosystem often believe new technology alone transforms warfare. Schadlow consistently emphasizes political structure and governance instead. Drones and software matter, in her view, only if integrated into a coherent strategy for shaping political outcomes. That is why she frames “strategic depth” in terms of industrial resilience rather than technological superiority.
Her concept of strategic depth has evolved. Historically, depth meant physical territory. Schadlow argues it now resides in cyberspace, outer space, and the defense industrial base. The ability of a nation to adapt and mass-produce technology during a conflict is its primary form of resilience. “Good enough and ready,” she argues, beats “perfect and late.”
Schadlow is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, but her relationship with the foreign policy establishment is better understood as a hostile takeover from within. She uses the status and vocabulary of the establishment to argue that its operating system is obsolete. In her essay The Globalist Delusion, she argues that the post-Cold War establishment suffers from “strategic narcissism,” a term she shares with H.R. McMaster. The Blob became so committed to a universal, rules-based order that it forgot that order is a product of power, not a substitute for it.
Her resume is nevertheless establishment through and through. She spent twenty years at the Smith Richardson Foundation funding the research that shapes the policy community. She sits at Hudson and Hoover. She drafted the 2017 National Security Strategy, which codified “great-power competition” into the permanent bureaucracy and forced the State and Commerce Departments to view China as a systemic rival rather than a partner in global trade. She gave the populist instinct a white paper that the military and intelligence communities could execute.
Her work since 2024 argues that the United States faces a “crisis of repetition,” where the Pentagon produces endless studies on the defense industrial base without moving toward mass production. She targets the drone industry in particular. In late 2025, she criticized provisions in the 2026 NDAA that proposed government-owned drone production facilities. Government-owned plants, she argues, stifle the commercial innovation necessary to win a software-driven war. She proposes instead that the Department of Defense use purchase commitments and off-take agreements to give the private sector the consistent demand signals it needs to scale.
She also calls for a reboot of the Defense Production Act, which she argues has become a catch-all tool for non-defense emergencies, from baby formula to solar panels, diluting its primary purpose. She wants it reoriented toward lithium-ion batteries, semiconductors, and advanced composite materials, what she calls the “energetic materials” of the 21st century.
In her appearance on The Ezra Klein Show on March 10, 2026, she provided the strategic defense for the American-Israeli strikes against Iran that began in late February. She argued that decades of diplomatic choreography and multilateral agreements failed to stop Iranian nuclear ambitions, and that decisive action without prior congressional consensus achieved the tactical surprise necessary for strategic success. Ezra Klein pushed back on the contradiction between Trump’s anti-war campaign rhetoric and his role in deposing two heads of state within the first two months of 2026. Schadlow answered by characterizing these actions not as new wars but as the necessary resolution of long-standing threats that the previous establishment allowed to fester.
This framing performs a specific function in the Iran debate. It reframes military action not as escalation but as a correction of strategic drift. The narrative is that the United States allowed threats to accumulate through excessive diplomacy and insufficient enforcement. Decisive action, under this logic, restores strategic order rather than destabilizing it. Hawkish policy appears as restoration rather than innovation.
The tension in her worldview is between control and complexity. She believes political order can be intentionally constructed through strategy and governance. But many recent conflicts suggest that external actors have far less control over local political systems than they imagine. This is a recurring dilemma for any strategist who believes statecraft can shape the political environment after war. Schadlow has no obvious answer to it. What she has instead is a doctrine, and a theory of American statecraft for a world where order must be actively produced rather than assumed.

Posted in International Relations | Comments Off on Decoding Nadia Schadlow

About 300 active-duty members of the US Armed Forces die in accidents each year

It’s not clear that Trump’s wars will cause a rise in deaths in our armed forces (given that improvements in medical care steadily reduce accidental and criminal deaths).

Approximately 250 to 320 active-duty members of the US Armed Forces die in accidents each year. These figures include both on-duty mishaps, like training exercises and aviation crashes, and off-duty incidents such as private motor vehicle accidents.

Recent data from the Defense Casualty Analysis System and Congressional reports provide a detailed view of these trends:

2022: 265 accidental deaths.
2021: 310 accidental deaths.
2020: 317 accidental deaths.
2019: 279 accidental deaths.

While the current numbers are a cause for concern in Congress, they represent a massive decline from previous decades. In 1980, the military recorded over 2,300 deaths, many of which were accidental. Improvements in safety culture, training protocols, and equipment have reduced the accidental death rate by more than 80% since that time. Today, a service member is statistically less likely to die in an accident than a US civilian of the same age demographic.

Training fatalities are a specific subset of accidental deaths, accounting for roughly 100 to 120 deaths per year.

Posted in War | Comments Off on About 300 active-duty members of the US Armed Forces die in accidents each year

Decoding Human Rights

David Pinsof argues that human rights do not exist as objective moral truths. He views them as strategic tools used in a complex social symmetry. Humans form alliances to gain status and power. They do not fight for rights because of altruism. They fight for rights to recruit allies against a common enemy.

The history of human rights begins with the struggle against monarchy. Early activists used the logic of universal rights to undermine the authority of kings. If every individual possesses inherent rights, then the king loses his unique claim to power. This framing allowed a large group of subordinates to coordinate. They signaled to each other that the king was a tyrant. They turned the king into a common enemy. This recruitment strategy worked because it offered a shared benefit to everyone except the monarch.

The French Revolution shows this Alliance Theory in practice. The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen functioned as a rallying cry. It did not just describe a new moral reality. It established a new set of rules for social competition. Those who supported the declaration formed a powerful coalition. They used the language of rights to justify stripping the aristocracy of its land and influence. The underdog becomes the new dominant power by claiming to represent the interests of all humanity.

During the twentieth century, the scope of human rights expanded. Alliances moved beyond the nation-state. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 served as a coordination point for a global coalition. Superpowers used human rights to criticize their rivals. The United States attacked the Soviet Union for restricting political speech. The Soviet Union attacked the United States for racial inequality. Each side used the rhetoric of rights to recruit unaligned nations. They did not care about the rights themselves. They cared about the reputational cost they could impose on their opponent.

Modern human rights discourse often focuses on smaller marginalized groups. Alliance Theory suggests that high-status individuals support these groups to signal their own moral virtue. By advocating for the rights of a specific minority, an individual gains status within their own elite circle. They distinguish themselves from those they deem bigoted or backward. The pursuit of human rights becomes a way to compete for prestige. The victim functions as a useful mascot for the coalition.

That we see rights as sacred is part of the strategy. If people recognized rights as mere tools for alliance building, the tools would lose their effectiveness. The belief in objective morality masks the underlying power struggle. Humans hide their true motives from themselves to become better recruiters. DTG might suggest that the evolution of human rights is an escalating arms race of social coordination.

In Not Enough: Human Rights in an Unequal World, Samuel Moyn provides a history of human rights that aligns closely with Alliance Theory. He argues that human rights did not emerge as a purely altruistic moral discovery but as a tool in a shifting social symmetry. Groups used the language of rights to recruit allies and coordinate against common enemies.

Early activists used the logic of universal rights to undermine the authority of monarchs. If every individual has inherent rights, a king loses his unique claim to power. This framing allowed subordinates to signal to each other and coordinate. They turned the king into a common enemy and used rights as a recruitment strategy that offered a shared benefit to everyone except the monarch.

The French Revolution demonstrates this interplay. The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen established a new set of rules for social competition. Support for the declaration formed a powerful coalition. They used rights to justify stripping the aristocracy of land and influence. The underdog became the new dominant power by claiming to represent all humanity.During the twentieth century, human rights served as a coordination point for a global coalition. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948 emerged from a consensus that citizens required new, powerful states. Superpowers used human rights to criticize their rivals. The United States and the Soviet Union each used rights rhetoric to recruit unaligned nations. They used the reputational cost of rights violations to impose losses on their opponents.

Modern human rights discourse often focuses on marginalized groups. Alliance Theory suggest that high-status individuals support these groups to signal their own virtue. By advocating for minority rights, individuals gain status within elite circles. They distinguish themselves from those they deem backward. Human rights become a way to compete for prestige, with victims functioning as useful mascots for the coalition.That we see rights as sacred is part of the logic. If people recognized rights as mere tools for alliance building, they would lose their effectiveness. The belief in objective morality masks the underlying power struggle. Humans hide their motives from themselves to become better recruiters. DTG might argue that the evolution of human rights is an escalating arms race of social coordination.

In Not Enough: Human Rights in an Unequal World, Samuel Moyn argues that the rise of human rights as our highest moral ideal occurred precisely as faith in Marxist and other egalitarian socialist projects collapsed. This transition allowed former leftists to maintain a sense of moral righteousness by shifting their focus from broad material equality to a more limited program of global sufficiency and individual liberties.

The Disenchantment of Socialism

The shift began in earnest during the 1970s, a period Moyn identifies as the “disenchantment of socialism”. For many activists, particularly in Eastern Europe, the state socialist regimes had failed to deliver on their promises of material justice and had instead become sources of brutal oppression. Dissident movements, such as Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia, adopted human rights as a “moral lingua franca” to indict these states without necessarily proposing an alternative economic system.

This move was often strategic. By framing their struggle in terms of universal human rights rather than partisan politics, dissidents could form broad coalitions that included both disillusioned socialists and liberals. However, this “apolitical” stance had long-term consequences:

Avoidance of Programmatic Politics: By focusing on a moral critique of state violence and repression, activists sidelined discussions about how a just social and economic order should be structured.

The Sapping of Socialist Imagination: The focus on political liberties and the right to be free from torture left little room for the egalitarian aspirations that had previously defined the left.

Human Rights as a “Last Utopia”

As Marxism lost its status as a viable political project, human rights emerged as the “last utopia”. For those who still wanted to change the world but were wary of the “totalizing” claims of socialist ideology, human rights offered a way to remain ethically committed without the baggage of past failures.

Moyn notes that this new moral culture was often about “saving the activist’s soul” rather than building structural social justice. It replaced the difficult work of class struggle with a more professionalized, informational politics of “naming and shaming”.

From Equality to Sufficiency

The most significant ideological shift in this transition was the abandonment of material equality in favor of sufficiency.

Marxist Egalitarianism: This tradition had sought to constrain material hierarchy and redistribute wealth broadly across society.

Human Rights Sufficiency: The human rights movement focused instead on establishing a “global floor of protection” for the worst off—ensuring people had enough to survive, but remaining silent on how far the rich could tower over the rest.

This focus on sufficiency made human rights “unthreatening” to the rising neoliberal political economy. While human rights activists felt righteous in their pursuit of basic needs, they inadvertently became the “powerless companions” of a system that allowed global inequality to explode. Moyn concludes that while human rights made the world more humane by addressing atrocity and extreme poverty, they left the underlying structures of unequal wealth and power entirely unchallenged.

In Alliance Theory, human rights function as a mechanism for status competition and moral recruitment rather than as a set of objective truths. People use the language of rights to signal their membership in elite coalitions and to distance themselves from rivals they wish to characterize as low-status or immoral.

One primary way individuals advance in status is by using human rights as a tool for moral signaling. By championing the rights of a specific marginalized group, a person signals their intelligence, their “evolved” sensibilities, and their adherence to the dominant norms of high-status social circles. This creates a clear distinction between the advocate and those who are indifferent or opposed. The advocate gains prestige by positioning themselves as a protector of the vulnerable, effectively using the victim as a mascot to validate their own moral superiority.

Human rights also serve as a method for coordinating against common enemies. In a professional or social hierarchy, an individual might use a rights-based framework to attack the legitimacy of a superior or a rival. By framing a rival’s actions as a violation of inherent rights, the accuser can recruit allies who might otherwise have no stake in the conflict. This turns a private dispute into a public moral crusade, allowing the accuser to leapfrog over others in the hierarchy by claiming the “moral high ground.”

The shift toward human rights after the decline of more radical ideologies, such as Marxism, provided a new path for righteousness. When collective economic projects failed, the individual pursuit of human rights offered a way for people to feel morally significant without requiring the sacrifice of their own material wealth. This form of “virtue” is particularly useful for modern elites. It allows them to maintain a high status by advocating for a “floor” of basic protections for the poor, which is unthreatening to their own position, while ignoring the “ceiling” of their own accumulation.

DTG might suggest that human rights are less about the liberation of the oppressed and more about the ongoing symmetry of elite coordination. That people view these rights as sacred is necessary for the strategy to work. If the quest for status were transparent, it would fail to recruit allies. By believing their own rhetoric, individuals become more effective at navigating the social hierarchy and securing their place within the most influential alliances.

In Not Enough: Human Rights in an Unequal World, Samuel Moyn argues that the human rights movement is struggling with a loss of relevance because it was built on low ambitions that are fundamentally unsuited for the current era of populist rage and escalating inequality.

The Human Rights Crowd as Palliatives

Moyn contends that human rights advocates have become palliatives that denounce the symptoms of material inequality—such as political catastrophe and refugee crises—without facing the structural “disease” itself. He suggests that:

Informational Politics are Ineffective: The movement’s chief tools—”naming and shaming” to stigmatize state repression—are unfit for mobilizing support for economic fairness.

Missed Connection with Equality: Human rights focus on a floor of sufficient provision rather than a ceiling on material hierarchy. This makes them “unthreatening” to neoliberalism and irrelevant to those suffering from material stagnation.

Loss of the “Reformism of Fear”: Unlike the 20th-century welfare state, which used the threat of organized labor and communism to secure material equality, the human rights movement has never offered a functional replacement for that sense of fear to drive redistribution.

Populism as a Symptom of Failed Ambition

Moyn argues that the rise of populism is a direct consequence of the human rights crowd’s failure to address material outcomes. Alliance theory might suggest that:

Elite Coordination Failure: High-status individuals use human rights to signal moral virtue and prestige within their own circles, distinguishing themselves from those they deem “backward”.

The Victim as Mascot: By treating the marginalized as “mascots” for their own status competition rather than as partners in a structural economic program, elites have lost the ability to recruit the working and middle classes into their coalition.

Populist Backlash: Without egalitarian pressure from the human rights movement, populist leaders have successfully capitalized on a sense of unfairness among classes that feel stagnant even as the wealthy soar.

A New Program for Relevance

For human rights to return to “defensible importance,” Moyn suggests the “crowd” must save itself from its companionship with neoliberalism. This would require:

Focusing on Labor Rights: Promoting labor rights as mechanisms for collective empowerment rather than just individual entitlements.

Scaling Welfare Globally: Moving beyond national borders to imagine and institutionalize a global welfare structure that addresses standard-of-living differences between countries.

Relearning Socialism: Elevating the choice between “socialism or barbarism” to a global project, recognizing that a world of basic rights fulfilled in the midst of escalating inequality is destined for instability and ruin.

In The Last Utopia: Human Rights in History, Samuel Moyn argues that human rights did not slowly emerge over centuries but burst onto the scene in the 1970s as a “last utopia” when other political projects failed. Alliance theory suggests that this was not a moral awakening but a strategic shift in how people coordinate to gain status and recruit allies.

The 1970s saw the collapse of revolutionary socialism and anti-colonial nationalism as viable paths to a better future. People who previously sought to transform the state or the economy found themselves in a state of ideological exhaustion. Alliance theory views this as a moment where old coalitions became liabilities. To maintain moral authority and social relevance, activists needed a new signal. Human rights provided a way to remain righteous without the messy, failed alliances of the past.

By pivoting to human rights, individuals could coordinate against the state rather than through it. This allowed for a “purity of struggle” that looked down on the compromises of power politics. From an alliance perspective, this was a brilliant recruitment strategy. It allowed Western elites to signal virtue by criticizing distant dictatorships, creating a high-status coalition that felt morally superior to both the “dirty” Cold War warriors and the failed Marxist revolutionaries.

Moyn highlights that the human rights movement often focused on individual suffering and state atrocity while ignoring the structural economic issues that socialism once addressed. Alliance theory explains this as a shift toward more sustainable signaling. Fighting for global material equality is difficult and requires significant sacrifice from the wealthy. Fighting for the “right not to be tortured” is low-cost for Western supporters but offers high reputational rewards. It creates a symmetry where the advocate gains prestige by protecting a distant victim, all while the advocate’s own economic status remains unthreatened.

The movement also benefited from the professionalization of international law. This created a new class of experts—lawyers, NGOs, and academics—who used human rights to build a new hierarchy of expertise. By defining rights as technical and legal rather than political, they excluded the “unwashed masses” from the conversation, ensuring that only those with the proper credentials could lead the moral charge.

That these advocates view their work as purely altruistic is a necessary feature of the alliance. If they admitted that human rights were a status-seeking tool used to replace failed leftist projects, they would lose their ability to recruit. The “sacred” nature of human rights serves as a coordination point that hides the underlying logic of social competition. DTG might suggest that human rights became the last utopia because they were the most efficient way to maintain elite cohesion in a world where bigger dreams had died.

In alliance theory, the major power players in the human rights field are not moral discoverers but strategic coordinators. They manage a system of social symmetry where human rights serve as the currency of elite status and the logic for global recruitment.

The primary power players are the high-status professionals within the “Human Rights Blob,” including leadership at major NGOs, international legal experts, and academic theorists. These individuals function as the gatekeepers of moral legitimacy. By defining what constitutes a “human right” or a “violation,” they set the rules for social competition. Alliance theory suggests that these elites use rights to distinguish themselves from “low-status” nationalists or populists. Their power comes from their ability to signal that they belong to a sophisticated, globalist coalition that is morally superior to provincial or tribal interests.

NGOs like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International act as recruitment hubs. They do not just report facts; they provide the “moral lingua franca” that allows different groups to coordinate against a common enemy, usually a state actor. In the current age of populist nationalism, these organizations are struggling because their traditional recruitment strategy—the “reformism of fear”—has lost its teeth. When leaders like Donald Trump or other nationalists openly disregard these moral signals, the NGO elite loses its ability to impose reputational costs. This creates a crisis of use for the human rights crowd, as their tools of “naming and shaming” no longer effectively recruit the broader public.

International legal elites and judges in bodies like the International Criminal Court represent another tier of power. They use the technical complexity of International Humanitarian Law to maintain a hierarchy of expertise. By making the discourse of rights inaccessible to the average person, they ensure that only those with specific credentials can participate in high-level moral coordination. This isolation reinforces their status within the elite alliance, even as it alienates them from the populist movements they seek to constrain.

Philanthropic foundations and billionaire donors also play a critical role. They provide the material resources that allow the human rights alliance to persist. From an alliance perspective, this funding is an investment in status. By supporting human rights causes, wealthy individuals can transform their economic capital into moral capital. This allows them to signal virtue to other elites and secure their position within high-status social circles without necessarily supporting structural changes that would threaten their own wealth, such as radical economic redistribution.

The current struggle for these players is that their alliance is being out-coordinated by populist coalitions. Populists use a different symmetry—national identity and “common man” rhetoric—to recruit allies. DTG might suggest that the human rights crowd is currently in a defensive crouch, attempting to re-brand their “last utopia” to regain the recruitment power they held in the 1970s and 1990s. Their survival depends on whether they can find a new enemy that is useful enough to reunite their fraying coalition.

In her 2015 article A Short History of International Humanitarian Law, Amanda Alexander argues that International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is a recent invention from the 1970s rather than an ancient code of chivalry. Alliance theory suggests that this “invention” was a strategic move by legal and activist elites to create a new platform for moral coordination and status acquisition.

The 1970s marked a period where traditional military codes and state-led treaties were losing their prestige. Alexander notes that the term “International Humanitarian Law” was coined to merge the laws of war with human rights. From an alliance perspective, this merger allowed human rights activists to colonize the domain of warfare. It provided a new way for non-state actors to recruit allies by judging the conduct of sovereign militaries. By framing war as a humanitarian issue, activists could signal their moral superiority over generals and politicians.

Alexander highlights that the 1977 Additional Protocols were vague and contested. Alliance theory treats this ambiguity as a feature, not a bug. Vague laws allow for flexible interpretation, which is a powerful tool for those in the “IHL elite.” If the rules are clear, anyone can follow them. If the rules are vague and complex, a specialized class of lawyers and “humanitarians” is required to interpret them. This creates a hierarchy of expertise where high-status professionals control the “moral lingua franca” of conflict.

The article describes how, by the late 20th century, international lawyers followed the lead of human rights organizations to declare these protocols authoritative. This was a successful “takeover” of the narrative. It allowed a new coalition—composed of NGO leaders, UN officials, and academic lawyers—to become the primary chroniclers of legitimate violence. They gain status not by fighting wars, but by setting the standards for who is “humanitarian” and who is a “criminal.”

This shift also created a new form of social symmetry. In the past, the laws of war were a pact between states. In the new IHL paradigm, the alliance is between the “humanitarian expert” and the “global victim.” The victim serves as the mascot that justifies the expert’s power and status. By advocating for the victim, the expert can coordinate global pressure against state actors, effectively raising their own prestige by lowering the prestige of the state.

That these actors believe they are merely uncovering objective legal truths is essential to the logic. If the IHL elite acknowledged that they were building a new infrastructure for status and power, their recruitment power would vanish. The “humanitarian” label masks the underlying struggle for control over the narrative of war. DTG might suggest that the rise of IHL is not a sign of increasing compassion, but a sign of a more sophisticated arms race in social coordination.

In her 2007 article The Genesis of the Civilian, Amanda Alexander traces how the concept of the “civilian” was constructed during and after the First World War. Alliance theory suggests this transition was not a natural evolution of compassion but a strategic reconfiguration of social symmetry to create new categories of victims and enemies.

Before the First World War, international law spoke of “citizens.” Alliance theory views the pre-war “citizen” as a high-status, high-agency figure. Citizens were considered part of the national body and therefore legitimate targets or potential threats. There was little social prestige in “protecting” a ferocious, able-bodied citizen who was expected to sacrifice for the state. Because they were seen as strong, they were ignored by the emerging humanitarian alliances of the time.

The First World War broke this symmetry. The technological and ideological demands of total war made the citizen a desirable target. To counter this, a new alliance emerged to construct the “civilian.” Alexander notes that the civilian was framed as weak where the citizen was strong, and feminine or childlike where the citizen was ferocious. From an alliance perspective, this shift was a masterstroke of recruitment. By stripping the non-combatant of agency and emphasizing their vulnerability, activists created a “protected victim” who could serve as a moral mascot.

This construction of the civilian allowed a new class of international lawyers and humanitarian actors to advance in status. They positioned themselves as the necessary protectors of this weak, exposed figure. This created a new hierarchy: the humanitarian expert at the top, the civilian victim at the bottom, and the “barbaric” military actor as the common enemy. By advocating for the civilian, the legal elite could coordinate global disapproval against states, thereby increasing their own prestige relative to traditional military and political power.

Alexander points out that the 1923 Draft Rules of Aerial Warfare entrenched this paradox—the civilian was both a target and a protected victim. Alliance theory explains this paradox as a result of competing coordination strategies. Militaries wanted to maintain the ability to strike the enemy’s resources, while humanitarian alliances wanted to maximize the reputational cost of such strikes. The “civilian” became the site of an escalating arms race in social signaling.

That this category feels like an objective, timeless reality is part of the logic. If people recognized the “civilian” as a strategic construction designed to facilitate elite coordination, the moral power of the category would diminish. DTG might suggest that the civilian was “invented” because the “citizen” was no longer useful for the recruitment needs of the emerging international legal order. The civilian’s supposed weakness is, in fact, the source of the humanitarian advocate’s power.

In her 2016 article The “Good War”: Preparations for a War against Civilians, Amanda Alexander argues that the bombardment of civilians in World War II was not a sudden violation of law but the realization of a narrative established after the Great War. Alliance theory suggests that this narrative was a coordination strategy used by various elites to redefine the enemy and the “fairness” of conflict.

After the First World War, a powerful literary and cultural alliance emerged that was deeply antagonistic toward civilians. Soldiers and writers who had experienced the trenches felt a sense of “betrayal” by the home front. From an alliance perspective, these veterans formed a high-status coalition based on shared suffering. They signaled to each other that the true “enemy” was the safe, comfortable citizen who cheered for war but bore none of its costs. By portraying the civilian as parasitic and ungrateful, they stripped the non-combatant of the moral protection previously afforded to them.

Military strategists adopted this narrative to justify the necessity of total war. If a fairer war was one that affected the entire nation, then the civilian population became a legitimate target. This provided a new logic for military coordination: air power could bypass the stalemate of the trenches and strike the “vitals” of the enemy nation. Alliance theory views this as a symmetry where the military elite and the cultural elite agreed on a common enemy—the civilian—to justify a new, more expansive form of violence.

Alexander shows that international lawyers were also swept up in this narrative. Constrained by their disciplinary conventions and the prevailing cultural “common sense,” they found it impossible to mount strong legal objections to aerial bombardment. In alliance theory, lawyers often follow the strongest social coalitions to maintain their own relevance. By failing to protect the civilian, lawyers aligned themselves with the dominant military and literary powers of the interwar period. They prioritized their status within the “realist” elite over a “humanitarian” defense that had no powerful allies at the time.

The “Good War” narrative that followed World War II served to retroactively sanitize this destruction. By framing the conflict as a struggle between absolute good and absolute evil, the victors could justify the mass killing of civilians as a moral necessity. Alliance theory suggests this is a form of moral recruitment: by casting the enemy as uniquely monstrous, the alliance of victors can ignore their own violations and maintain their status as the rightful chroniclers of justice.

That the bombardment of civilians was seen as an “ethical possibility” reveals how moral frameworks are tools for coordination. DTG might argue that the “civilian” is a category that is expanded or contracted based on the recruitment needs of the most powerful alliance. In the interwar period, the civilian was a useful target for a coalition of resentful veterans and ambitious strategists. Only later, when the “human rights crowd” needed a mascot for their own status competition, was the civilian reconstructed as a protected victim.

In her 2023 essay Filling the Gaps: The Expansion of International Humanitarian Law and the Juridification of the Free-Fighter, Amanda Alexander tracks the “juridification” of the irregular fighter, showing how international law expanded to cover those who once stood outside state control. Alliance theory suggests that this expansion was a strategic “territory grab” by legal elites to eliminate rival sources of authority and ensure that they remain the sole arbiters of legitimate violence.

Historically, the Hague Conventions left the “free-fighter” or “franc-tireur” outside the law. Alexander notes that this was often intentional; delegates believed true freedom and moral codes existed outside the state’s reach. From an alliance perspective, this created a symmetry where the state controlled its soldiers, but irregular fighters were governed by their own decentralized social logic. This “gap” in the law was a threat to the prestige of international lawyers because it represented a domain where their “moral lingua franca” had no power.

The transition to modern International Humanitarian Law (IHL) closed this gap. By extending legal status to irregular combatants, the legal elite brought the free-fighter into their own jurisdiction. This was framed as a “humanitarian” victory, but alliance theory views it as a way to domesticate the “enemy” of the state and the law. By applying formal legal criteria to these fighters, the IHL crowd signaled their authority over all participants in a conflict. They replaced the fighter’s own moral code with a complex, technical language that only high-status experts can navigate.

This process also reinforced the status of the state. Alexander argues that the expansion of law outside the state has led to a reaffirmation of the law that is synonymous with the state. In alliance terms, the legal elite and the state formed a mutually beneficial coalition. The state gains a more precise mechanism to identify and “legally” eliminate those who rise up against it, while the legal experts gain a monopoly on the narrative of justice. The free-fighter is stripped of their independent “will” and turned into a legal subject whose actions can be “coded” as either legitimate or criminal by the expert class.

The “humanitarian” framing is the recruitment strategy that makes this expansion possible. It attracts allies by promising to protect the vulnerable and regulate the “wild” elements of war. However, the result is a system of “juridification” that silences alternative moralities. DTG might argue that “filling the gaps” is not about making war more humane, but about making the social symmetry of the legal elite more complete. By leaving no “outside” to the law, the experts ensure that their status is never challenged by those who refuse to speak their language.

In her 2023 essay The Ethics of Violence: Recent Literature on the Creation of the Contemporary Regime of Law and War, Amanda Alexander reviews the recent shift in scholarship toward seeing International Humanitarian Law (IHL) as a “paradigm of ethical violence.” Alliance theory suggests that the humanitarian regime is not a path toward peace, but a sophisticated system of social symmetry that allows specific elites to define which forms of violence are prestigious and which are barbaric.

The central concept in this literature is the “juridification” of war. Modern IHL has expanded to cover almost every aspect of conflict. Alliance theory views this as a “territory grab” by a global legal elite. By creating a complex, technical language to describe war, these experts exclude the public and military practitioners from the moral conversation. They maintain their status by ensuring that only those with high-status legal credentials can judge the legitimacy of violence.

This regime functions as a tool for moral recruitment. Humanitarian advocates use the “sacred” status of the victim—such as the civilian or the irregular fighter—to recruit allies against state actors. By framing their work as an objective moral necessity, they hide the underlying power struggle. They gain prestige by positioning themselves as the protectors of humanity, effectively using the victim as a mascot to validate their own moral authority.

Alexander notes that this paradigm is “encompassing” and hard to escape. From an alliance perspective, this is a sign of a successful “moral monopoly.” The humanitarian crowd has established a symmetry where any critique of their methods is framed as an endorsement of atrocity. This makes it socially costly for rivals to challenge the elite coalition. Even when the regime fails to prevent violence, the advocates maintain their status by calling for more law and more expertise, rather than questioning the utility of the framework itself.

The literature also highlights the “companionship” between humanitarianism and modern warfare. Instead of stopping war, IHL “humanizes” it, making it more palatable for high-status audiences. This serves a strategic function: it allows powerful states to continue using violence as long as they follow the “rules” established by the legal elite. This creates a mutually beneficial alliance between states and lawyers. The state gets moral cover for its actions, and the lawyers get to remain the primary chroniclers of global justice.

DTG might suggest that the “ethics of violence” is simply the current logic of elite coordination. That we find it difficult to imagine an alternative to this humanitarian paradigm proves how effective the alliance has been at securing its position. The “traps” Alexander mentions are the inevitable result of a system designed for status competition rather than the actual elimination of conflict.

In alliance theory, the best novels about human rights are not those that celebrate moral progress, but those that expose the internal status games and competitive signaling of the people who manage them. You want stories that show how the “humanitarian” label is used as a tool for elite coordination.

The Professionalized Moralists

A Bed for the Night: Humanitarianism in Crisis by David Rieff: While technically a work of narrative non-fiction, it reads like a grim autopsy of the humanitarian alliance. Rieff describes how NGOs became “powerless companions” to state power during the 1990s. It shows the status jockeying that occurs when activists realize they are being used by governments as moral cover for political inaction.

The Ghost of the 19th Century: Joseph Slaughter argues that the Bildungsroman (the coming-of-age novel) is the literary engine of human rights. It shows how stories about individuals “finding themselves” serve as recruitment tools for international law. These novels naturalize the idea that the individual is the only unit that matters, which conveniently sidelines collective economic demands.

The Bureaucracy of Suffering

The Missionaries by Phil Klay: This novel captures the modern interplay between NGOs, military contractors, and journalists in Colombia. It is a perfect study in alliance theory. Every character is jockeying for a different kind of prestige: the aid worker wants “ground-level” moral authority, the journalist wants the status of the “truth-teller,” and the military tech expert wants the prestige of efficient control. They coordinate against each other as much as they do against the local “enemies.”

Canticle for Leibowitz by Walter M. Miller Jr.: This science fiction classic explores how a monastic order preserves “sacred” knowledge across centuries of barbarism. Through the lens of alliance theory, the monks are an elite coalition using the “mystery” of their documents to maintain a hierarchy of expertise. It shows how the status of being a “guardian of humanity” can be maintained even when the content of that guardianship has been forgotten.

The Collapse of the Last Utopia

The Dogs of War by Frederick Forsyth: Though a thriller, it provides a cynical look at how human rights and “liberation” rhetoric are used as tools for corporate and mercenary coordination. It reveals the symmetry between the idealistic language of the anti-colonial activist and the cold logic of the man funding the coup. The “right” is a mascot for the “might.”

Disgrace by J.M. Coetzee: This novel explores the breakdown of old moral certainties in post-apartheid South Africa. It shows what happens to high-status individuals when the social symmetry they relied on—their “buffered identity” as enlightened liberals—is shattered. The protagonist’s loss of status is absolute because he can no longer successfully signal his virtue to the new dominant coalition.

That we find these novels “cynical” is a sign of how deeply we have internalized the sacred status of rights. If we admitted that these organizations are sites of intense careerism and status-seeking, the recruitment strategy would fail. DTG might suggest that the truly “human rights novel” is the one that convinces the reader that the advocate is a hero, thereby securing the advocate’s place at the top of the social hierarchy.

In The Last Utopia, Samuel Moyn argues that the 1970s “naming and shaming” model succeeded by turning human rights into a minimalist moral signal that required no commitment to structural economic change. This allowed a new class of activists to recruit allies without the “contamination” of state power.

Alliance theory would decode the 1970s breakthrough as a move toward a more sustainable form of social coordination. Earlier movements, like anti-colonial nationalism or socialism, demanded the redistribution of wealth and the seizing of state power. These projects were “expensive” for allies because they required sacrifice and often resulted in violent, low-status outcomes. By contrast, the 1977 Additional Protocols to the Geneva Conventions—which Amanda Alexander identifies as a turning point—merged human rights with the laws of war. This created a new social symmetry: the “Humanitarian Expert” and the “Global Victim” coordinating against the “Violator State.”

The “naming and shaming” tactic is a perfect example of moral recruitment. By publishing reports on distant atrocities, NGOs allow high-status Westerners to signal virtue at zero cost to their own material position. The victim functions as a mascot whose suffering validates the expert’s authority. This creates a powerful elite alliance between the legal professional, the billionaire donor, and the academic theorist. They gain prestige by being the “primary chroniclers” of justice, while the actual victims remain useful only as long as they remain weak and in need of protection.

DTG might suggest that the 1970s saw the birth of a “professionalized” morality. The shift from “citizens” to “civilians” described by Alexander reflects this: citizens have agency and can challenge elite coalitions, but civilians are defined by their vulnerability. This ensures that the humanitarian elite remains at the top of the hierarchy, as the only group capable of interpreting the complex, technical rules of the “ethics of violence.”

This model is currently facing a crisis of use because populist nationalists no longer care about the reputational costs imposed by “naming and shaming.” When the signal of the human rights crowd no longer effectively recruits the public, the elite alliance loses its leverage. The “last utopia” is being out-coordinated by rivals who use more visceral signals like national identity and economic resentment.

Posted in Human Rights | Comments Off on Decoding Human Rights