A Final Plea to Never-Trumpers

Dennis Prager writes:

It is very hard to publicly affirm a position for nearly a year and to then, at the last minute, change one’s mind.
Nevertheless, even as late as Election Day itself, I wish to address those conservatives and Republicans who have declared themselves Never-Trumpers.
I was one of you in vigorously opposing Trump’s nomination — on my national radio show and in my syndicated column. And I paid a price, as you have, in losing longtime supporters — in my case any number of listeners who supported Trump from the outset and found my strong opposition to him disappointing and worse.
Unlike you, however, I did say from the beginning that if he were to be the nominee, I would vote for him.
On this Election Day, I am more convinced than ever that this was the right position. I even have to believe that in the wee hours of the night — when worrying about the current and future state of our beloved country keeps you awake — many of you have at least wondered whether you have taken the right position.
Most of you are simply too intelligent, too idealistic and too self-questioning not to have at least on occasion had second thoughts. If you understand — and I cannot believe that most of you don’t — how destructive another four years of any Democrat in the White House, let alone the truly corrupt Hillary Clinton, would be, it is inconceivable that you have never questioned your Never-Trump position. Never-Trump, after all, is not the same as Never-Question.
To prove my point, one of my favorite Never-Trumpers, Jonah Goldberg, wrote in May: “If the election were a perfect tie, and the vote fell to me and me alone, I’d probably vote for none other than Donald Trump.”
In that moment of exquisite honesty, Jonah acknowledged one of the most important moral arguments to be made for voting for Trump — the Lesser of Two Evils argument.
To which conservatives who won’t vote for Trump often respond: “The lesser of two evils is still evil.”
Now, forgive me, but that it is a complete non sequitur, morally and intellectually unworthy of any conservative, religious or secular, who makes it. The only relevant moral lesson here is not that the lesser of two evil is still evil; it is that choosing the lesser of two evils, by definition, increases good. Would you amputate your leg if it might save your life? Or would you say that because losing your life and losing your leg are both evils, you won’t amputate your leg because the lesser of two evils is still evil?
Then there is the Never-Trump argument that Donald Trump isn’t a conservative. I agree that he hasn’t been his whole life, because he probably never gave the subject of the differences between left and right five of minutes of serious thought (nor, if we are to be honest, did Republican presidential nominee John McCain, whom I also worked hard to elect). But Trump and Mike Pence and his top political advisors are well to the right of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. As Victor Davis Hanson wrote last week, in his plea to Never-Trumpers:
“On the Supreme Court, Obamacare, the debt, rebuilding the military, the Second Amendment, school choice, abortion, reforming the tax code, re-examining regulation, energy exploration and production, illegal immigration, sanctuary cities, and a host of other issues, the Republican ticket is the antithesis of Clinton/Kaine — and is recognized as such by nearly all progressives.”
Why isn’t all that enough to vote for Trump?
Then there is the argument that electing Trump means that in the eyes of many Americans, especially young Americans, Trump will embody conservatism and Republicanism, and that would be a calamity.
On that noble concern, I am not willing to turn America over to four more years of leftism. First of all, the damage the left will do, if not permanent, will almost certainly last a generation. And I happen to think it could very well be permanent. Can you name a country outside of some formerly Communist countries (which had Communism forced on them), that chose to go left and has fully recovered from a generation of leftism?
Given the arguments in favor of voting for Trump, I see only three possible explanations for conservatives helping to elect Hillary Clinton.
One is that they are certain Donald Trump is so psychologically imbalanced that he will jeopardize America and the world. But they have to be certain of this. If they have any doubts, they have to vote for him — because they are certain about Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. And between certitude and incertitude, one must always act on what is certain.
The second is their self-image: How can they, truly decent people, vote for someone who has exhibited the uncouth speech and behavior that Trump has? Or, as some have expressed it, “How can I explain to my daughter that I supported Donald Trump?”
As someone who also thinks of himself as decent, I think that saving America from Hillary Clinton, the Democrats, and the left is the most decent thing I can do. And as for your daughter, just have her speak to any of the millions of wonderful women who are voting for Donald Trump. They will provide your daughter with perfectly satisfying moral and woman-centered answers.
And the third explanation for the Never-Trump conservatives is they that they believe we will survive four more years of left-wing rule, and that America is really not in such bad shape anyway. That argument was made this weekend by a writer for National Review. “The United States of America is not a wreck,” he reassures us. “The people who are telling you that it is — on both sides — are trying to sell you something. Don’t buy it.”
Question: What exactly am I, or Victor Davis Hanson, or Thomas Sowell, or at least half of The Wall Street Journal columnists, or millions of religious Jews, Protestants, Catholics and Mormons trying to “sell you”?
And second, that writer and others who think like him seem to be living in a different country than I am. Because compared to America at any time in its history except for the Civil War years, the country I am living in is indeed a wreck — and getting worse each day, and in every way. After another four years of a Democrat in the White House the country called the United States will still be here, but America as envisioned since its founding — as the world’s beacon of individual liberty, Lincoln’s “Last Best Hope of Earth” — won’t.
To think otherwise is willful self-delusion.

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WP: Two Democratic operatives lose jobs after James O’Keefe sting

Washington Post:

Scott Foval and Robert Creamer, two little-known but influential Democratic political operatives, have left their jobs after video investigations by James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas Action found Foval entertaining dark notions about how to win elections. Foval was laid off Monday by Americans United for Change, where he had been national field director; Creamer announced Tuesday night that he was “stepping back” from the work he was doing for the unified Democratic campaign for Hillary Clinton.

The moves came after 36 hours of coverage, led by conservative and social media, for O’Keefe’s video series “Rigging the Election.” In them, Foval is filmed telling hidden-camera-toting journalists about how they have disrupted Republican events. Foval also goes on at length about how an organization might cover up in-person voter fraud. In another Tuesday night statement, the Creamer-founded Democracy Partners, which used Foval as a contractor, denounced both Project Veritas and the statements caught on camera.

“Our firm has recently been the victim of a well-funded, systematic spy operation that is the modern day equivalent of the Watergate burglars,” the firm said. “The plot involved the use of trained operatives using false identifications, disguises and elaborate false covers to infiltrate our firm and others, to steal campaign plans, and goad unsuspecting individuals into making careless statements on hidden cameras. One of those individuals was a temporary regional subcontractor who was goaded into statements that do not reflect our values.”

Scott Foval’s Twitter feed is hilarious. He says he’s voting for Trump.

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Election 2016

Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Number of black voters among early voters down significantly.

Guess that’s the problem with the “Rainbow coalition”: can’t expect every individual group to show up at once.

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I’m Studying Torah For Trump Tonight

I’m studying Torah this evening and booking the merit to the Trump campaign. Hope it makes a difference.

Studying Tehillim aka Psalms. Lots of stuff about beating one’s enemies.

“All day long my enemies (Clinton puppets, Globalists) taunt me; those who deride me use my name for a curse” 102nd Psalm

I wish more of the rabbenim had thought to organize this. Torah Yidden 4 Trump says Chaim Amalek.

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The Election

A Jewish friend says: There is an obvious divergence in the polls, with the Los Angeles Times’ poll the outlier.  It has a different polling methodology in that the same persons have been polled since the polling started so it does reflect voters changing their minds.  Whether it is more accurate than traditional polling methods drawing a different sample to poll will be proven after the results are in.
 
Almost all the national polls show a “tightening” of the race, especially since Comey made his announcement a couple of weeks ago.  It also remains to be seen whether Comey’s memo of today makes any meaningful difference in the results.
 
Politico ran a story earlier this week based on a Morning Consult Poll that they said showed that there isn’t much difference in how persons say they will vote based on whether they are  interviewed by a human being or responding to on-line anonymous questions.  The theory was that Trump supporters may be reluctant to admit their support of Trump to a human being.  Overall Trump did narrow the gap based on the entire sample from 5 points to 3 points, and among those earning $50K a year or more from 10 points to 1 point.
 
There also is a big difference in the samples for some polls among, registered voters, likely voters and voters who have made up their mind.  Apparently Trump holds a not insignificant lead among voters who have decided who they will vote for.
 
Some sites that fervently back Trump-The Conservative Treehouse and The Gateway Pundit – think that there is a “monster vote” out there of up to 73 million persons who will cast ballots for Trump.  Since most projections are the total number of  voters will be around 120 million persons, this would, if true, deliver a blow out-mandate type of election.  
 
Virtually, all establishment pundits and pollsters have weighed in that this won’t happen.
 
The Trump supporters also say that the clear enthusiasm gap between the Trump personal appearances at rallies and those of Clinton show that Trump voters are more numerous and more committed to vote than the Clinton supporters.  It is worth recalling that this same pattern was raised by Mitt Romney supporters in 2012 because he was filling areas with fervent supporters, yet he lost the election by a margin predicted by the polls.
 
Before I get to the prediction of the election, if Trump wins the election, it will  be the death knell for traditional political consultants and even traditional grass roots activism and get out the vote operations.  It will be very damaging to those who create, buy and broadcast political advertising.  It will be very damaging to traditional media ways of covering elections.  (Much of this media damage will be self inflicted because of the obviously one sided coverage of the campaign to favor Clinton, and the rest because the Wikileaks reveals the close relationship between many of the top “reporters” and the Democrats.  I think that most persons realize that reporters and journalists have to cultivate sources and relationships, but much of what has been released in the emails goes far beyond that)  However if Clinton wins the election almost everyone who would be shook up by a Trump victory will go back to  business as usual, although there will a continuing diminution, at least as far as the press goes, in influence, since traditional print media are all losing money, and a significant minority (if not an outright majority) no longer trusts the mass media.
 
The election will come down to a few states.   What is clear is that African American participation (relative to the rest of the electorate) is down and that a higher percentage of Blacks will support Trump than have supported Republican presidential candidates in decades.  It does look like Latino participation is up, but it really must be  broken down into subgroups of Latinos- Mexicans, Central Americans, Cubans, and Puerto Ricans.
 
The Cubans are typically a strong Republican contingent  and are very important to the Republicans in Florida.  However, as a result of the economic distress in Puerto Rico, a number of Puerto Ricans, who typically support Democrats are voting in Florida.  Large numbers of Mexican and Central American immigrants now live in all parts of the country.  However, a large percentage of them outside the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New  Mexico and Texas) are illegals and should not be able to vote. 
 
It is not exactly clear how strong Clinton’s support among women is.  She certainly has the strong backing of single or unmarried women over fifty, but this may not be true for married women or younger women.  Since this is the centerpiece of her support, how these demographics break will be instrumental in calling the election. 
 
It is also not clear whether millennials (or Bernie Bros) will support Clinton.   Clinton’s campaigning is based on stirring up fear among this group of Trump presidency, but their personal loyalty to Sanders, in light of the Wikileaks comments about Sanders) and Clinton’s continuing close relationship with investment banks may either lead them to abstain for voting or even vote for Trump. 
 
In terms of watching the election, if Clinton carries Florida, she will win the election.  If Trump carries Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire and either carries or comes close in Virginia, Trump will likely win.  If Trump does not come close in Virginia, we have to wait until we see the results of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.  If Trump carries Pennsylvania he will likely win.   If he carries Michigan and either Wisconsin or Minnesota he will likely win.
 
Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, who has been very critical of the Democrats, says Trump can win if he points out how he and Clinton differ on the issues, since Trump’s positions are more popular.  Trump has not followed this advice  but rather run the 2 minute commercial, now criticized as anti semitic by Josh Marshall and Al Franken.   Scott Adams thinks the commercial is very persuasive and that Clinton cannot really  counter it.
 
My prediction is that Trump will win the election, although narrowly and not in a blow out.   This despite the superior “ground game” that Clinton has, her early voting advantage (although this has been disputed) and despite the unprecedented intervention in the election by Obama who is more popular by far than either Trump or Clinton and fears he has stirred up against Trump. 
 
Despite this prediction, it is possible that Clinton will pull it out, and it is not impossible that Trump will win the electoral vote yet lose the popular vote by a margin of a million or more opening himself up to attacks that his presidency lacks consensus and is illegitimate.
 
Assuming there is no ongoing litigation challenging some state’s results, the time between the election and inauguration will be most interesting.  I don’t think any outgoing president has attacked the other parties candidates in such harsh terms – yet Trump and Obama will have to work together for the transition.   There is the possibility that the Republican congress may enact legislation that they know they can’t get through under Trump for Obama to sign, creating even more fissures in the Republican party.
 
I do think the consequence of the demonization by each candidate of the other, will certainly lead to protests, likely lead to riots and possibly lead to insurrection by the followers of the defeated candidate.

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