Japanese Strategists

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Luke Ford

Greg Cochran writes: “In World War II. It’s not clear that there actually were any. This isn’t always mentioned in histories, but a lot of what Japan did in the Pacific made no sense at all.”

COMMENTS:

* The US Navy’s “island hopping” strategy involved establishing as few bases as possible, whose strategic location allowed the US to make the bypassed, Japanese-occupied islands irrelevant and unsustainable strategic absurdities. On the few occassions when the US dropped the “island hopping” strategy, e.g. McArthur’s ego-driven invasion of the Philipines, the result was a blood-drenched catastrophe. If the Philippines had not been invaded by the US, the Japanese forces there would have surrendered when Japan did in August 1945. Instead, there was a brutal, eleven-month, totally unnecessary battle for the Philippines that did not end until Japan’s total surrender in August 1945, cost untold numbers of American, Philippine, and Japanese lives, and ravaged the Philippine’s, including the total destruction of Manila.

Japan’s biggest mistake was thinking that its far-flung island bases in the Pacific could provide mutual military support to one another and then be resupplied by Japanese maru and submarines. In fact, the island bases were too far apart to support one another and unrestricted US submarine warfare and absolute air superiority ensured that their regular ressuply was a logistic impossibility.

* This seems to be a basic aspect of Japanese culture. An acquaintance was invited to Japan to act as a software consultant to the Japanese tech industries during their big 4GL push in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was ideal for this position since he was an experienced software engineer and had enough Japanese to get by. (For those who don’t remember, Japanese 4GL was intended to give Japan a permanent edge in computer technology. Despite the hype it turned out to be a total bust.) When my acquaintance returned after three years working in Japan he explained the Japanese failure. Their culture was totally unsuited to the give and take he thought necessary for efficient software engineering. He told us that there was a phrase he learned to dread. It would pop up after a subordinate had been given marching orders by a superior. Its essential meaning was, “Yes. I will attempt with all my power to achieve what you ask. But you and I both know this task is hopeless and doomed to failure.”

* Greg Cochran: “In WWI, the Germans were assholes. Judging from their actions and stated intentions, they would have been far harsher in victory than the Allies were – for example annexing Belgium, and parts of Northern France, along with all of Poland and huge chunks of Russia.

In WWII they were monsters.”

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Economists and Merkel’s migrants

Posted on August 10, 2018 by Luke Ford

Greg Cochran writes:

Someone polled a number of prominent economists whether the influx of refugees into Germany beginning in 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

About half said yes, a little less than than half were unsure. 2% disagreed.

As of late 2017, the job status was as following:

~20% had any job.

~largely those were low-skilled jobs

Now you have to understand that Germany is a fairly plush welfare state, one that spends a lot of money on its inhabitants. School, medical care, housing, the whole ball of wax. In order to be a net contributor, you have to have a pretty high income. Even higher, if we’re thinking of someone being a net contributor over a lifetime – you have to consider retirement and old-age costs. The occasional gaudy acts of terrorism hardly help: protection is costly. Maybe it boosts GDP like an epidemic of broken windows?

Next, your typical Syrian or Afghani immigrant doesn’t speak German and doesn’t have a lot of human capital: he isn’t a fresh graduate of a German technical high school. If typical of his home country, he has an IQ in the 80s. He finds both beer and blood sausage abhorrent – fitting in is difficult.

The birth rates are very low in Germany and the big companies would like more skilled labor. But after a year, out of a million-some refugees, less than 100 got jobs in those big German companies.

So.. On this not-terribly-difficult, not-terribly rare kind of problem, economists are worse than useless. I could put it more strongly !

Comments:

* I’ve always been mystified by this nonsense, too, but whenever you ask economist like Caplan, Hanson, Cowen, Tabarrok, Easterly, etc, etc. They always come up w/ econometric papers proving immigration to be a net benefit. Anyone at Cato, Reason, Bloomberg. They all think alike. Depressingly to me, I think they are not lying; they rly believe it….

Even IQ realist economist Garrett Jones argues for more immigration. I once read that even Charles Murray believes immigration, whatever kind, is always a good thing.

Economist youngsters like Ben Southwood and Sam Bowman, who are HBD realists, also believe “free labour movements” are a net plus to GDP. Not just Poles and Chinese, Somalis and Syrians too. They will gladly show you papers by open border economists “proving” lowskilled to be a net benefit to GDP.

I never needed immigration-benefits-GDP papers or even IQ research, I can just visit my old neighbourhood and see its sorry state today…

* All of these guys accept the Von Mises argument as an axiom. That is, unless a society has reached maximum population size, more labor makes everyone richer. It’s a basic libertarian argument, that like most of libertarianism, only works in imagination land.

* According to von Mises it was a meaningless question whether immigration benefits the receiving population because he quite explicitly assumes that there is no real difference between populations.

* Von Mises was nuts. By the same logic, when a nation is attacked, it should worry just as much about casualties to the enemy as to its own forces… No country can solve its problems by importing an extra underclass.

* Prof. Heiner Rindermann? Ostracized since he honestly and scientifically answered a question about possible race differences in intelligence in a German radio interview, he is one of a few left psychometricians in Germany. When the migrant crisis hit its peak in autumn 2015, he wrote an article for the journal Focus that formally educated African Academics and engineers most likely would have an IQ around 93 according to his best estimates and numbers. That would just equal the average cognitive ability of graduates of the German Realschule (secondary high school with diploma but no qualification for higher/tertiary studies, normally completed with 16 years). Result: Everyone offended.

* Economists, like almost all academics and servants of the deep state, are mainly interested in their own economic status….Which would be harmed by telling the truth about 3d world immigration….

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Theater Thursday: The Witch: A New England Folk Tale (2015) (8-9-18)

Posted on August 9, 2018 by Luke Ford

MP3: https://soundcloud.com/luke-ford-666431593/theater-thursday-the-witch-a-new-england-folk-tale-2015

Topics for tonight’s show:

* The Witch: A New England Folk Tale (2015)

* MPCDot.com: There will be blood.

* Steve Sailer: No Jail Time for Berkeley Bike Lock Philosopher Eric Clanton

* Heather Mac Donald: Sarah Jeong Is a Boring, Typical Product of the American Academy

* Mickey Kaus: “Illegal immig. hasn’t “continued to surge” (it’s normal https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration …) but Trump’s utter failure to pass ANY immmig-control measures (wall/E-Verify/loophole closing) is stunning. Either he doesn’t know how to use Pres. power or chose not to.”

* Washington Post: Trump hits a wall on curbing illegal immigration.

* Heartiste: Female Xenophilia As Revenge Fantasy

* Why are modern men obsessed with self-improvement?

* Microsoft threatens Gab.ai.

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(((Supply)))

Posted on August 9, 2018 by Luke Ford

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Crime Stats

Posted on August 9, 2018 by Luke Ford

Johnny Walker writes:

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/press/rhovo1215pr.cfm

During 2012-15, the rate of white-on-white violent crime (12.0 per 1,000) was about four times higher than black-on-white violent crime (3.1 per 1,000). The rate of black-on-black crime (16.5 per 1,000) was more than five times higher than white-on-black violent crime (2.8 per 1,000). The rate of Hispanic-on-Hispanic crime (8.3 per 1,000) was about double the rate of white-on-Hispanic (4.1 per 1,000) and black-on-Hispanic (4.2 per 1,000) violent crime.

Among black victims, 63 percent of violent victimizations were committed by black offenders, 11 percent by white offenders and 7 percent by Hispanic offenders. Among white victims, 57 percent of victimizations were committed by white offenders, 15 percent by black offenders and 11 percent by Hispanic offenders.

http://victimsofcrime.org/docs/default-source/ncvrw2015/2015ncvrw_stats_sexualviolence.pdf?sfvrsn=2

An estimated 32.3 percent of multiracial women,
27.5 percent of American Indian/Alaska native
women, 21.2 percent of black non-Hispanic women,
20.5 percent of white non-Hispanic women, and 13.6
percent Hispanic women experienced at least one rape
victimization in their lifetime.5

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3415834/

We analyzed data from adolescent women participating in the Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Bivariate associations and logistic regression models were assessed to examine associations among race/ethnicity, forced sex, and substance use behaviors.

The first multivariable model examined the risk for forced sexual intercourse by race/ethnicity, controlling for age (Table 2). The model was significant (X2(7)=34.29, p<0.001) and demonstrated a good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow X2(8)=4.85, p=0.773). Compared with Asians, African Americans (OR = 3.12 [95% CI 1.53, 6.35]), Caucasians (OR=2.38 [95% CI 1.20, 4.72]) and Hispanics (OR=2.45 [95% CI 1.21, 4.96]) had significantly higher odds of reporting forced sexual intercourse.https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2017/09/the-question-of-race-in-campus-sexual-assault-cases/539361/

In the 2013–14 academic year, 4.2 percent of Colgate’s students were black. According to the university’s records, in that year black male students were accused of 50 percent of the sexual violations reported to the university, and they made up 40 percent of the students formally adjudicated.

During the three academic years from 2012–13 to 2014–15, black students were accused of 25 percent of the sexual misconduct reported to the university, and made up 21 percent of the students referred for formal hearings. Fifteen percent of the students found responsible for assault in those years were black. During that same three-year period, Asian students, who constituted a little more than 3 percent of Colgate’s student body in 2013, were more than 13 percent of the accused, 21 percent of those referred for hearings, and 23 percent of those found responsible. (The rest were white; no Hispanic students were accused.)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5695602/

To illuminate the complexity of campus sexual assault, we collected survey data from a large population-based random sample of undergraduate students from Columbia University and Barnard College in New York City, using evidence based methods to maximize response rates and sample representativeness, and behaviorally specific measures of sexual assault to accurately capture victimization rates. This paper focuses on student experiences of different types of sexual assault victimization, as well as sociodemographic, social, and risk environment correlates.

For both women and men, the prevalence of any sexual assault was similar for all race/ethnicity groups compared to non-Hispanic White students with one exception. Asian students (women and men) were less likely to experience any sexual assault than non-Hispanic White students. For women only, differences emerged by type of assault. Asian women compared to non-Hispanic White women were less likely to experience penetrative assault (OR = 0.35, CI: 0.19–0.62), but not attempted penetrative assault (OR = 0.56, CI: 0.25–1.26), nor sexualized touching only (OR = 1.00, CI: 0.59–1.69). Black women were found to have increased odds of touching only incidents compared to non-Hispanic White women (OR = 1.99, CI: 1.05–3.74). There were no other significant racial or ethnic differences.

In California, Hispanics were arrested for forcible rate at 2.3x the Non-Hispanic White rate. Blacks were arrested at 6.3x the Non-Hispanic White rate.

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