Election Predictions

A friend says: First the disclaimer. It is very difficult to make predictions about races in states and districts outside my local ones. I have to rely on polls and trends from polls and articles written. The polls are only as accurate as the persons polled actually mimic the electorate that shows up to vote on election day. Many polls have built in biases based on the samples they take. Articles are very difficult to use to provide information. The authors all have their biases and you have to be very careful in selecting the drops of accuracy from the sea of opinion.

That being said, there are a few things to watch for early.

Trump has staked a lot on campaigning in Florida. It is his second home and Mar A Lago is the retreat from the White House he goes to most frequently. The polls there show the race as extremely tight both for Senate and Governor. The Republican candidate for Governor has embraced Trumpism but has consistently polled behind Gillum. Whether this is due to the changing demographics of Florida (it had a large influx of Puerto Ricans after the hurricane although it is not clear how many claim residency and have registered to vote) or hostility to Trump or dislike of DeSantis is not clear. Gillum, is facing corruption charges which would ordinarily be enough to sink him so to me it looks like a good portion of the Florida electorate wants to stick it to Trump. There is also the possible Bradley effect in which an African American candidate polls somewhat higher because the persons asked the questions don’t want to appear to be racist, yet when in the privacy of the voting booth will not vote for a black governor. This race will be extremely close, closer than the polls as of today show. I would not be surprised to see whichever candidate win defeat the loser by less than half a percentage point. I think that Gillum will defeat DeSantis Also on the Florida ballot is the Senate race in which the incumbent Governor, Rick Scott, who is relatively popular, trails the incumbent Senator Bill Nelson. This could go either way but, if I had to bet, my money is on Nelson. Florida also has a ballot proposition which looks like it will pass restoring voting rights to convicted felons once their sentence and probation is completed. The conventional wisdom is this effects something close a million and a half persons in Florida and that once the voting rights are restored they will vote mostly for Democrats. If this happens it changes the way the 2020 campaign will be run because Florida has so many electoral votes. Florida is tied with New York for the third richest electoral haul, 29, which will go up after the 2020 census.

Georgia is the other state to watch the governor’s race in. Stacy Abrams the black democrat slightly trails Kemp the republican. Both Oprah Winfrey and Obama either have campaigned for her or will campaign for her before election day. Although she may have had a shot, by stating she would ban the AR-15 and refusing to answer whether she would confiscate them, she has just done more to excite anti Abrams vote than any Republican has ever done. Regardless of whether most Americans support gun control, in almost every election where gun control becomes an issue on the ballot either by initiative or the position of someone running for office, the persons who oppose gun control usually win the day. The dream of democrats of a social justice oriented African American democrat as governor in Georgia will not be realized this year. Also if Abrams pulls it out, this will embolden congressional democrats to seek to pass gun control legislation. If she loses, don’t expect it to come up in the next two years.

In terms of surprises, I don’t think that Beto O’Rourke will knock off Ted Cruz, but even though the polling shows Cruz with a seven point lead I would expect his margin of victory to be substantially smaller, more in the 2 to 3 percentage point range.

I do expect Braun to upset Donnelly in Indiana (although the attempts by the Republicans to paint Donnelly as a racist because of the way he praised his minority staff members not only is stupid but appears to have backfired) but wouldn’t be surprised if Donnelly does get reelected. Same with Debbie Stabenow in Michigan who the Republicans like to claim is in trouble against John James. They are blowing smoke. Stabenow will win by more than 10 points. In Missouri look for Claire McCaskill to be defeated. The Republicans learned their lesson and have not selected a right wing nut to run against her, although he is plenty conservative. McCaskill may make it close but I think Josh Hawley will win and if I had to put money on it, win easily.

The Arizona Senate race is the most interesting. It is hard for me to shake the idea that Arizona is actually an ultra conservative state. It turns out that Phoenix is now the fifth largest city in the United States and in general urban populations are more liberal than rural ones. In 2016 Trump won the state by less than 100,000 votes although no doubt his margin was cut because Gary Johnson the libertarian candidate who had been governor of neighboring New Mexico garnered 106,000 votes. Sinema has a history before entering congress of radical leftist politics although as a congresswoman has been a liberal but not extremely liberal vote. McSally is a combat veteran, but is having problems because she ran in the primary against Kelly Ward and Joe Arpaio. The scars from the primary still linger and have led a not insubstantial number of Republicans to indicate in polls they support Sinema. Of interest is that Sinema was married, but is now the only openly bisexual member of congress. I think that when push comes to shove, the Republicans who do hold a numerical registration advantage over the Democrats will come back to McSally and she will win in a very close race.

Overall I think the Republicans will hold the Senate I don’t think they will pick up seats. I think they will end up with 51 seats, with a slight possibility of gaining up to two more, but I would bet against that. They may even end up with 50 seats and have to rely on Pence for his tie breaking votes when it comes to confirmation of appointed officials and judges.

I can’t even begin to give opinions about house races. I know the generic polls favor the democrats and historically the party out of power gets significant gains in the mid term elections. Those bode well for the Democrats. Of course, Trump does not hold the undivided loyalty of Republicans. He still faces never Trumpers, recalcitrant elected officials etc. One thing pointed out by Republicans is that the opposition to Trump, the resistance is very strong, in fact overwhelmingly strong, but only in districts that are already Democratic. What does it matter if a Democrat wins with 51% or 99% of the vote. What matters is how the numbers play in swing districts. Typically the Democratic advantage overall in polling on a generic basis has to be in the range of 6 to 10% in order to wrest majority control in the house. The Democrats appear to be on the cusp. My prediction is that the Democrats will gain a majority of seats in the house of representatives. I don’t think it will be a wipeout of Republicans, but I think it will be more than a one or two member advantage. When the dust settles, I would expect the Democrats to have something in the nature of a five to ten vote majority. As everyone knows, its not like a Democratic House will actually enact anything. It can only enact legislation if the Republican Senate joins in and President Trump doesn’t veto it.

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Three Months Inside Alt-Right New York

Jay Firestone writes:

Max and I introduced ourselves as working-class Trump supporters. After five minutes of macho man talk about fistfights, truck driving, and laying heavy pipes, they were sold. I mentioned my connection to the Book Club, and in order not to disrupt my cover story, identified myself as a neo-Nazi to every Proud Boy I met. That’s fine, they all told me. Gavin has a strict policy: no Nazi imagery or language is allowed in public, and especially when you talk to the press. There’s a pinned message in their private Facebook group stating this policy, they told me. Otherwise, you can believe and say whatever you want among other Proud Boys…

I mentioned I’m a fan of the Shoah, and Sal excitedly showed me his text messages with its host, TRS founder Mike “Enoch” Peinovich. “Mike and I text all the time” Sal beamed proudly, showing me dozens of messages as evidence. Sal claimed Peinovich and the rest of the TRS “pool party,” their euphemism for meetup groups, were on the way. They never showed.

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Free Lunch At The Saudi Embassy

I hear the Saudi embassy on Sawtelle Blvd is offering a free catered kosher lunch today to rehabilitate their image. I admit I’m tempted. Still, not sure it is wise even though I left journalism a long time ago.

From the Yelp reviews:

* The smell of blood and bleach all over the place, could hear a journalist screaming in the background. Wouldn’t recommend.

* I was asked to take a seat and wait for my papers. Within moments the door shut behind me and several men attempted to slice my arm off with a bone saw. They had the audacity to have headphones in their ears, probably listening to Brahms. Luckily I managed to stun one of them and flee, but not before one of the men stole my jacket. Beware.

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#100 10-31-18 Did Silicon Valley Buy Conservatism Inc?

00:00 The collapse of National Review after John O’Sullivan (1998) and Commentary magazine after Norman Podhoretz
18:00 David French says Steve King must be defeated
25:00 GOP scheme to pay women to falsely accuse Robert Mueller of sexual misconduct
38:00 Trump seems to be growing stronger in office, having a ball
40:00 Revisiting Roe v Wade ruling on abortion
55:00 Whitey Bulger’s murder and the problem of when the inmates run the asylum
1:00:00 We Were Made for Civil War
1:04:00 Vancouver: The City That Had Too Much Money
1:15:00 NYT: Lil Peep Died Before Becoming Pop Royalty. His New Music May Change That.
1:20:00 The Trip (2010) analysis

* Z-Man writes:

In a series of tweets yesterday, someone calling herself Emerald Robinson announced she had evidence that at least one “conservative” magazine was taking payola from a tech giant. The implication was that the magazine was taking money in exchange for countering the stories about the tech oligarchs censoring dissidents.The woman works for an outfit called One America News, which is a small operation that has made a name for itself during the Trump phenomenon…

The most likely candidate, before examining the hints in the tweet, is National Review, which lost its moral compass when Rich Lowry took over the operation. It’s also the one conservative publication with any influence, at least before it hurled itself onto the NeverTrump bonfire three years ago. If you are going to bribe a conservative publication, you may as well bribe the biggest one. It’s not like any of these operations are making so much money that they would say not to a bribe. It’s their reason to exist.

Of course, the clue about the subscriber base evaporating adds to the speculation that the culprit is National Review. When you look at the tax filings for the 501(c)(3) they use to launder contributions, it appears their donations shriveled up during the campaign. Their ugly smear campaign against Trump and his voters turns out to have been a costly blunder. That is if the tax filings tell the whole story. It is possible that the tech giant or some other wealthy patron is paying writers directly or using another vehicle.

I speculated during the campaign that Dan and Farris Wilks were buying support for Ted Cruz and funding the NeverTrump lunacy among so-called conservatives. The two are members in good standing of the donor class and the guys bankrolling people like Ben Shapiro, Dennis Prager and Glenn Beck. My suspicion was they were spreading cash around on the side to the various pens for hire at operations like National Review and the Federalist. It would explain some rather obvious patterns we saw in the campaign.

Now, in fairness to National Review, we don’t know if the person tweeting this stuff is legitimate or correct. Her name suggests she should be swinging from a pole, rather than covering the White House, but these days, the differences between the two professions are microscopic. In fact, it would be a relief to learn that the mass media is simply singing for their supper, delivering what a handful of billionaires demand. Otherwise, it suggests a systemic failure that can only be addressed by madame guillotine.

* Fetal homicide ruling mandates ‘Roe exception’ challenge, Alabama justice says

* Theater Thursday: The Trip (2010)

* Is America headed for civil war?

* NYT: “A new study shows that the structure of the human pelvis varies between populations [races], which could have implications for how babies are birthed.”

* “Strange thing, culture,” remarked senior nurse to junior—a rookie—as they cleaned up afterwards. “Whites curse and blacks holler. Hispanics I’ve known to actually sing. But the Chinese—not a whisper.” [Fire from the Sun, Ch. 71]

* A young man is far more interested in what he can put into a young lady’s pelvis than what he can take out of it.

* When something is going in, Asians tend to squeak in a higher pitch. Whites and blacks get louder and lower in tone.

* Not just women. A White or Black baby on a long flight – guaranteed screeching. Dozens of Asian babies on a 16-hour flight – nary a peep. I was absolutely amazed. Perhaps they were saving their screeching for the NYT pages some 20-odd years later.

* Could they please publish a comprehensive list of the biological racial differences it is racist to know about as well as a list of the biological racial differences it is racist NOT to know about? Let’s also get daily update emails when a thing moves from one list to the other.

It’s tough when you get called a racist who doesn’t care about the deaths of black babies for not knowing that black women have big butts… ahem… deep pelvises. Even the original Becky from Baby Got Back is more woke than you on the PQ.

Maybe some of you keep up with all this, but there are some unclear points. For example, I’m pretty sure it’s okay to know about bone density differences since this shows that black people are tougher than white people. We already covered pelvis shapes… so you may think you’re in the clear with the skeletal system but… is it okay to know about skull circumference differences also? How about if you know about skull circumference but make very sure not to know about IQ correlation?

But skull shape might be relevant to birth and that means healthcare outcome disparities… so you might also be a racist white person who murders black babies on purpose if you DON’T know it. Maybe you can know it if you’re currently delivering a baby but not at other times?

It’s bad to say blacks are biologically better at running when you’re talking about football or sprinting but good to say they are better at running when it’s DISTANCE running. I think. If you relate this to the pelvic differences that are racist not to know, does that then make it okay?

Also not sure about the status of innate black rhythmic ability. It’s been scientifically shown and it suggests a positive ability that could make blacks superior to whites, so that’s good, but it could also suggest that you believe in stereotypes about black people singing and dancing, which is bad, unless it’s a black comedian / writer for the root making fun of white people dancing, which is also good.

I’ve been getting screened for sickle cell to show how much I don’t believe in race but I find I’m getting dirty looks from people with deep pelvises.

It’s getting hard out here for an NPC.

* Tucker Carlson’s Ship of Fools

* NYT lionizes guy you’ve never heard of: NYT: Lil Peep Died Before Becoming Pop Royalty. His New Music May Change That.

* Who is Jacob Wohl & why is he saying mean things about Robert Mueller? What we know about the shady ‘intel agency’ behind an alleged GOP scheme to pay women to falsely accuse Mueller of sexual misconduct

* Whitey Bulger murdered in “maximum-security” prison.

* Vancouver: The City That Had Too Much Money

* Is your Halloween costume racist? More

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Big Jews Vs Little Jews

Joe* says: “As a white person, I’ve found your message on big jews vs little jews to be an open and honest rebuttal of leftwing jews. For the first time in a long time, it makes me believe our people can work together…”

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