- https://PayPal.Me/lukeisback
"Luke Ford reports all of the 'juicy' quotes, and has been doing it for years." (Marc B. Shapiro)
"This guy knows all the gossip, the ins and outs, the lashon hara of the Orthodox world. He’s an [expert] in... all the inner workings of the Orthodox world." (Rabbi Aaron Rakeffet-Rothkoff) LATEST POSTS:
- What is a ‘Received Idea’?
- Jordan Bardella: The Manufacture of Normality
- Everyone Became Television: Bourdieu’s Warning and the 2026 Iran War
- Marine Le Pen
- The Coalition-Proximity Rule
- Nigel Farage
- Bernard Haykel: A Life Between the Text and the Gun
- Walker Connor (1926-2017)
- Benedict Anderson and the Nation as Imagination
- Anthony D. Smith: The Student Who Kept the Question and Rejected the Answer
- Ernest Gellner
- Eric Kaufmann: The Man Who Made the Majority Visible
- Dominic Cummings: A Biography
- Steve Lopez: The Last City Columnist
- California Historian Kevin Starr
- Stephen Kotkin: A Life in Power
- William T. Vollmann: An American Life in Excess
- Rod Dreher: A Life in Exile
- The Cross at Sinjar: Tom Holland’s Dominion
- Rick Warren: A Biography
BEST POSTS:
- * The Enlightenment Wasn’t Enlightened (6-23-26)
* Mr. Burge Draws The Line (6-23-26)
* 'Improving on Democracy' (6-17-26)
* People Leak To People Who Are Fun (6-11-26)
* Why Does Australia Produce So Many Great Journalists? (6-11-26)
* Steve Wynn and the Press: Power, Litigation, and the Contest Over Las Vegas (6-3-26)
* Sheldon Adelson and the Journalists (6-3-26)
* The Vigilant Animal: Thinkers Who Reject the Myth of Human Gullibility (6-2-26)
* The Cost of Refusing the Misunderstanding Myth (6-2-26)
* Show Me How It Travels (6-2-26)
* The Norm Explainers (6-2-26)
* Centering Marginalized Voices (6-1-26)
* What would it look like if the Washington Post put its reader first? (6-1-26)
* What would it look like if the Financial Times put its reader first? (6-1-26)
* What It Would Mean for the Los Angeles Times to Put the Reader First? (6-1-26)
* What It Would Mean for The New York Times to Put the Reader First? (6-1-26)
* Why Wembanyama Lives on the Perimeter (5-31-26)
* The Emotional Palettes Of San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco & Sacramento (5-27-26)
* The Administrative Capital: Sacramento Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* San Diego - The Quiet Republic (5-27-26)
* The Quiet Bar: San Diego Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* SF v LA Legal Culture (5-27-26)
* Why Talent Travels Poorly Between San Francisco and Los Angeles (5-27-26)
* San Francisco and Los Angeles as Rival Models of Urban Access (5-27-26)
* Social Cliques in New York, 2026 (5-25-26)
* Social Cliques in San Francisco, 2026 (5-25-26)
* The Rival Courts of Washington (5-25-26)
* The City of Private Rooms (5-25-26)
I Argue With Paul Gottfried
Posted in Adolf Hitler, Anti-Semitism, Germany, Paul Gottfried
Comments Off on I Argue With Paul Gottfried
Hitler and Abductive Logic: The Strategy of a Tyrant By Ben Novak
Here are some excerpts from this 2014 book:
* The question that initiated this study was a simple question that mystified Adolf Hitler’s contemporaries and has subsequently baffled historians and biographers: Why was Hitler successful in his rise to power? Initially, this seems to be a straightforward question, answered by simply describing: (1) who this man was; (2) what he did; and (3) how he did it. However, most biographers and historians have answered only one of these three questions, namely, what he did. As for the other two questions, they have proved unable to arrive at consensus or provide satisfactory answers.
H. R. Trevor-Roper was the first post–World War II historian to recognize the mystery constituted constituted by Hitler’s rise to power and to identify these two unanswered questions as the essential elements of the continuing mystery of Hitler. Trevor-Roper raised these in a lengthy essay published in 1953, entitled “The Mind of Adolf Hitler,”[1] which begins with the stark question: “Who Was Hitler?” He then goes on to castigate his fellow historians for failing to answer that question, as well as for failing to answer the second question constituting the mystery: “How did he do it?” Indeed, Trevor-Roper accused historians of “evading” these questions. It is worth quoting him more fully, for he minces no words:
“Who was Hitler? The history of his political career is abundantly documented and we cannot escape from its terrible effects. And yet, . . . how elusive his character remains! What he did is clear; every detail of his political activity is now—thanks to a seizure of documents unparalleled in history—historically established; his daily life and personal behavior have been examined and exposed. But still, when asked not what he did but how he did it, or rather how he was able to do it, historians evade the question, sliding away behind implausible answers.[2]”
In the intervening half century, despite an overwhelming amount of scholarship devoted to these two questions (Robert G. L. Waite has opined, “It seems likely that more will be written about Adolf Hitler than anyone else in history with the exception of Jesus Christ.”)[3], no advance has been made in answering them or solving the mystery.
Eberhard Jaeckel pronounces the question “How could Hitler have come to power?” to be “the seminal question of the twentieth century.” century.”[4] James M. Rhodes writes that “The rise of the German Workers’ Party (Hitler Movement)” is a phenomenon that has “never been adequately explained.”[5] Biographer Robert Payne candidly admits at the beginning of his biography, The Life and Death of Adolf Hitler, that “the rise of Adolf Hitler to supreme power is one of those events in world history which are almost totally inexplicable in any rational terms;”[6] while Joachim Fest, the author of one of the most respected biographies of Hitler,[7] acknowledges thirteen years after publication that “Hitler and National Socialism, despite years of study and reflection about them, have remained more myth than history.”[8] Robert Nelken pithily summarizes the mystery: “Hitler has puzzled generations of investigators.”
The present status of this mystery, especially regarding the two unanswered questions identified by Trevor-Roper, is well reflected in three major works published as the twentieth century was ending. In 1997, John Lukacs published The Hitler of History, a survey of the major historical scholarship and research relating to Hitler. Lukacs was motivated to conduct his study because he felt that the same two questions that Trevor-Roper had identified in 1953 were still unanswered: “There is no disagreement about this among historians,” writes Lukacs, “What they ask from the record—and from themselves—are two questions: How could Hitler have come to such power? And: What kind of a man was he?”[10] In his conclusion, Lukacs reiterates the judgment of Percy Ernst Schramm that “by virtue of his personality, his ideas, and the fact that he misled millions, Hitler poses an historical problem of the first magnitude.”[11] Lukacs himself summarizes the mystery posed by Hitler in almost Biblical terms, capitalizing each word: “And Hitler Was, Is and Remains a Problem.”[12]
The following year a second work appeared demonstrating the continuing mystery of Hitler. In 1998, Ron Rosenbaum, a journalist who sensed a significant story in the failure of historians to solve the mystery of Hitler, published Explaining Hitler: The Search for the Origin of His Evil. The story that Rosenbaum reports is the almost-scandal among historians that Hitler remains unexplained. For his book, Rosenbaum interviewed many of the most prominent Hitler scholars, recording his surprise—and their frustration—that the most fundamental historical and moral questions about this man remain unanswered. Rosenbaum identifies these two yet unanswered questions as (1) “The real search for Hitler—the search for who he was,” and (2) “the question of his advent and success.”[13] Rosenbaum then records in eloquent language the layman’s amazement at the failure of historians to find any coherent or consensus answers to these questions:
“Is it conceivable, more than half a century after Hitler’s death, after all that has been written and said, that we are still wandering in this trackless wilderness, this garden of forking paths, with no sight of our quarry? Or, rather, alas, with too many quarries: the search for Hitler has apprehended not one coherent, consensus image of Hitler, but rather many different Hitlers, competing embodiments of competing visions, Hitlers who might not recognize each other well enough to say “Heil!” if they came face to face in Hell.”
* “No comprehensive study of all aspects of Hitler’s language exists.”[36] So far, no rhetorician has conducted a study of Hitler’s rhetoric that would explain his phenomenal political success.[37] If Hitler’s demagogy—his speechmaking, oratory, and rhetoric—were so important in explaining Hitler’s success, why has no one seen fit to study it in order to explain the principles of its effectiveness?
* The most essential conclusions that I have drawn from my review of the literature are as follows: Scholars have already applied every known theory of the social sciences and humanities to explain Hitler, but so far the mystery has not been solved. Almost all previous historical and biographical studies of Hitler have attempted to explain his power in terms of why people responded to him, rather than studying precisely what he did to elicit that response. Other previous studies—biographical and historical—that have applied familiar labels, or employed familiar concepts, have been unsuccessful at explaining his success. The failure to discover a satisfactory explanation for Hitler’s success is an embarrassment to the historical profession and poses a danger in regard to the place of Hitler in myth and legend. Most important of all, there seems to be no doubt that the central issues in Hitler studies, both historical and biographical, arise from the inability of scholars to discover the relationship between what is known about Hitler the man and what is known about Hitler the politician. This suggests that the proper focus of any new study or investigation designed to solve the mystery of Hitler must focus on Hitler himself.
After reviewing the approaches of previous scholars I find that there is one question that has not been investigated by any post–World War II scholar. That question may be set out this way: What personality or character trait: talent, skill or ability (natural or acquired); genius, or method, did Hitler possess, whose identification and explication would meet the following five requirements: distinguish Hitler from other politicians; explain what it was that gave Hitler the advantage over other politicians; explain why Hitler was so often underestimated; explain why he was so much more successful than other men of seemingly seemingly better education, experience, and background, who seemed to possess more talents and abilities, more connections, and more resources; and, finally, would connect Hitler’s youth and young manhood prior to his entry into politics with his life after 1919, when he entered politics. Among all of the scholars and biographers who have studied Hitler’s life and career, I find only one who had specifically asked this last question, and he had done so not only before World War II, but even before Hitler came into power. That scholar was Konrad Heiden, who in the early 1930s asked: “What natural gifts determined Hitler’s fate?”[77] In answer, Heiden argues that the secret to Hitler’s success lay in a peculiar form of logic. “His strength is utterly in his logic,” writes Heiden. This is a surprising and unexpected explanation of Hitler. However, Heiden personally knew and observed Hitler for a longer time and at closer quarters than any other journalist, opponent, or scholar. Strangely, no one has ever before investigated Heiden’s explanation of Hitler’s success. METHOD Frankly, Heiden’s claim that Hitler’s strength was utterly in his logic puzzled me for a long time. How could strength in logic be attributed to Hitler, who is generally described as irrational and emotional in his approach to politics? Nevertheless, I was intrigued by the fact that, on the one hand, all previous theories have failed to explain Hitler, and on the other, that this seems to be the only hypothesis left. In such a situation, the guidance of one skilled in solving mysteries ought to be sought.
* As Friedlander writes, as to Hitler: “Historical inquiry seems to strike at an irreducible anomaly. The emotional hold Hitler and his movement maintained on many Germans . . . defies all customary interpretation and can never be explained coherently within the framework of a historiography in which political, social, or economic explanations predominate. . . . The manifest presence of this unknown determinant has changed nothing about the routine of research. It is true that psychohistorical investigation of Nazism has become a discipline—which seems to answer the objection. But it must be admitted that this approach has proved disappointing because of an excessively schematic application of concepts both too general and too worn out. At best it seems artificial.”
* Thus the essence of abductive logic is to recognize the strangeness in a set of facts, to reason backward to a hypothesis that will remove the strangeness and explain the strange conjunction of facts, so that they appear natural; that is, “explained.”
* Abductive logic, because it occurs at the initial stage of inquiry, is immune from both refutation and normal logical objections… While future testing will theoretically prove or disprove the hypothesis, until that testing has occurred, the hypothesis cannot be refuted by inductive logic. Similarly, deductive logic cannot prove a hypothesis wrong.
* This is a characteristic of abductive logic that proved particularly useful to Hitler. Hitler explained that the successive defeats, humiliations, crises, and traumas that beset the German people were all caused by a Communist-Socialist-Liberal-Pacifist-Jewish conspiracy that aimed to destroy the German nation. Insofar as Hitler’s theory appeared to explain and account for the known facts, it was a logical and valid hypothesis—no matter how improbable or distasteful. This placed Hitler’s critics and opponents in a logically difficult position. In order to refute Hitler’s argument, they had only three logical alternatives: (1) to accept Hitler’s conspiracy and race theory as a valid hypothesis suitable for testing; (2) to present a better explanation; or (3) to put Hitler in power and let him try out his theories in practice. To Hitler’s opponents and critics, the first alternative was completely unacceptable and impractical for two very obvious reasons. First, to acknowledge Hitler’s theories as valid hypotheses would have been to give Hitler’s “nonsense” legitimacy. His opponents would have had to acknowledge the logical possibility that his theories might be true. To have acknowledged Hitler’s theories as valid hypotheses might have been the best thing to do if it had been possible to quickly prove Hitler’s theories false. However, the only means of proving them false would have been to turn them over to historians, geneticists, sociologists, etc., who might have taken decades (beginning in the 1920s) to arrive at a significant enough consensus to prove Hitler wrong. Meanwhile, his opponents would have dignified Hitler’s hypotheses until that consensus evolved. It might further be noted, as a matter of fact, that by the time Hitler emerged as a significant force in German politics, on September 14, 1930, a large proportion of the students and faculty at German universities was National Socialist.[1] Thus, any effort to submit Hitler’s race theory and historical explanations to the scientific examination of university scholars capable of evaluating them would likely have been disastrous, given the confused and politicized state of German universities at the time.
The second alternative to refute an abductive hypothesis is to present a better hypothesis. The major parties and political leaders presented little in the way of an explanation for the successive crises of Germany. They were progressive, practical, and forward-looking in attempting to solve problems, and not often amenable to making historical digressions in order to explain why or how the problems arose. Only the Communists (and to a lesser extent the Socialists) boldly proclaimed that they had a better explanation than the Nazis, i.e., the Marxist interpretation of history.
The third method of refuting Hitler was the method eventually adopted in 1933. That was to put Hitler in power and let him try his theories out in practice.
* Adolf Hitler followed a strategy based upon the logic of abduction, and opponents and critics reacted to that strategy in ways that, though disastrous, followed the logical course Hitler plotted, based upon the characteristics of abductive logic. Thus, Hitler and the Nazis were often accused of being illogical and irrational precisely because their arguments and theories were irrefutable by the normal arguments of inductive and deductive logic. However, this immunity did not arise from irrationality or illogicality. Rather, it arose from the nature of the logic in which Hitler presented his theories. It is one of the characteristics of abductive logic that a well-formed hypothesis is irrefutable by normal methods of logical arguments, unless enough time is available to prove it wrong by scientific testing or scholarship.
* Abduction is not only the first stage of inquiry for the scientist to make discoveries that will benefit mankind, but it is also the stock-in trade of the liar, the cheat, the fraud, and the criminal; for the essence of abduction is the invention of explanations.
* Hitler was able to get away with a lie because no one attacked the form of his logic. This would have required the following logical form: “Yes, it is agreed that there are many events which appear to be inexplicable, and which call out for explanation. But the theory that a Jewish conspiracy is the cause of these effects is not the only possible cause of these effects. Nor is it the best hypothesis to explain those effects. Therefore, we should ignore the explanation of a Jewish conspiracy and calmly investigate what appear to be better explanations to explain these effects.”
* In the previous chapter of Mein Kampf, “The Causes of the Collapse” (chapter 10), Hitler describes every “symptom” of the illnesses that beset German society. It is a catalog of every imaginable indication of the presence of a disease. Chapter 11 provides the theory of how the “infection” is contracted; the course of the “disease”; a description of the “symptoms”; an explanation of why and how the “parasite” causes those specific symptoms; and the stages of the disease. Thus, Hitler presented himself not simply as a layman who could speak the obvious, e.g., “You are sick. You have a certain disease.” Rather, he presented himself as a doctor and medical expert who not only could identify the disease, but also could explain everything about the disease.
* Once a simple diagnosis—e.g., the Jews are to blame for everything—is amplified into a larger theory that links and explains many apparently unrelated symptoms into a single theory, and further explains how other apparently independent symptoms are linked to a single, deeper cause, one has a much stronger logical position.
* [Hitler] opposed intellectualism because it “removes people from the instinct of nature.”[34] The entire difference between the Aryan and the Jew, he argued, was based solely on a difference in their instincts.
* Joachim Fest also saw an opposition between instinct and reason. Fest writes of Hitler: “He grasped what was happening in the world more by instinct than by reason.”[37] But Hitler’s appeal to instinct is not opposed to reason and is entirely proper in one of the three forms of logic.
* Charles Sanders Peirce describes the “abductive faculty” as that faculty “whereby we divine the secrets of nature.”[38] It has also been described both as a “sort of divinatory power,”[39] and as “a means of communication between man and his Creator, a ‘Divine privilege’ which must be cultivated.”[40] In “On the Method of Zadig,” Thomas Henry Huxley calls it a form of “prophecy” and of “divination,” which he likens to the powers of a medium or a clairvoyant.[41] Peirce argues that there “are mysterious agencies in ideas.”[42] Pragmatism, he states, is “nothing else than the logic of abduction.”[43] It is a process whereby one aligns one’s mind with the logic of nature and allows one’s instinct to lead to the correct answer to a problem. One who has such an ability to reach the “divine secrets” and explain them to others is the true thinker who “communes with the Creator.”
* When people go to a medium or clairvoyant, they expect to be told why apparently inexplicable things are happening to them. The medium may tell them of evil forces or spirits. The person who seeks the aid of the medium is grateful to have the strange occurrences in his or her life explained. Science and medicine perform similar functions. The patient suffering from an illness he does not understand goes to a doctor who explains it. In terms of the logic, these two processes are identical. Each imagines or “divines” a cause sufficient to explain the phenomenon.
* Early in his career, Adolf Hitler gave an example of how he imported precisely the same logic into politics. In discussions held with Dietrich Eckart, he was explaining to Eckart how such logic could be brought from science to describe the workings of politics. “We are on the wrong track,” Hitler exclaimed. “Astronomers do things differently. Take, for example, an astronomer who has been observing a cluster of stars for a long time—heaven knows how long he has been looking at them. Suddenly he observes, dammit, that something has gone wrong. Previously they were arranged in a certain way, but now they are arranged differently. Some secret force has been exerted on them. So he makes endless calculations, and determines the exact location of a planet which an eye has never seen, but one fine day people discover that it really exists.”
“Well, what do historians do? They explain the regular movements of society by appealing to the society itself, the behavior of its prominent politicians. It does not occur to them that there may somewhere be a secret force which exerts its influence on everything and directs everything. Well, this force has existed since the beginning of history.”
This is precisely the form of the medium, the clairvoyant, the conspiracy theorist, and the scientific discoverer—it is the divining of active forces that cannot be seen. Its essence is abduction. Hitler’s conclusion was to identify the hidden forces acting in German history: “You know its name—the Jew.”
* He insisted, like Marx, that he had peered into the forces of history and was able to explain them—as well as to explain how these invisible forces were affecting the present. He based his political future on his abductive ability, similar to that of a medium, to predict the future based on his special knowledge of the activities of these unseen forces in history. “I have never told you” he claimed in 1922, “that such and such things may come true, but always that they will come, because they must come and it cannot be otherwise. And what we foresaw has now come to pass.”
* Hitler was always careful to present himself as the seer who divined the causes, or as the scientist who explained them, or as the doctor who diagnosed them.
* The third unique—and perhaps most important—characteristic of abduction is the strange power it has over the minds of ordinary people by which it forces them not only to accept a hypothetical explanation and act upon it, but also to follow through in acting out all the inferences of the hypothesis. Abductive logic has the capacity to impose a “straitjacket of logic with which man can force himself almost as violently as he is forced by some outside power.
* No other form of logic has the power over men’s minds that abductive logic has. This is all the more remarkable because abduction is only the first stage of scientific inquiry, and its goal is only to provide hypotheses for subsequent testing. However, the nature of the human mind—outside the laboratory—has such a need for explanation, and such a need to make the world rational, that improvised hypotheses are readily accepted.
Even astute researchers might be surprised to discover that, while a youngster, Hitler was enamored of Saxony-born novelist Karl May, best remembered for volumes depicting the Old American West. It was from May’s writings, Novak relates, that Hitler originally learned about abductive logic — despite May being a Christian humanitarian who was no enemy of Jews or non-Aryans. The manner through which Hitler transformed a realm of adventurous fantasy into a living nightmare inflicted upon millions and millions consumes the bulk of Novak’s work.
Understanding how a poorly educated, emotionally volatile, and psychologically disturbed nobody from the hinterlands became a global public enemy for the ages is quite an ordeal. Perhaps the most frightening aspect of this is discovering that Hitler, through sheer force of his own will (itself fueled by a desire to overcome too many personal insecurities to mention here), twisted a plot pattern from pedestrian fiction to fashion a methodology for mass murder, astounding theft of property and real estate, as well as intended enforcement of totalitarian governance for over 1000 years.
Novak, in tracing Hitler’s childhood and rise to power as an adult, more than ably disseminates a story of how the lowest depths of humanity were reached. From Hitler — an unremarkable, unsuccessful farm boy gone to the big city — channeling his deep personal rage into political power to the ease with which throngs of voters rallied to his cause to how he attained stomach-wrenching domestic order primed to liquidate not only those within but abroad, nary a stone is left unturned.
Especially astounding is that, for all of the power he attained, Hitler never delivered typical campaign promises, like pragmatic solutions to pressing popular concerns. Instead, he cast such a spell over those around him that Nazi supporters were willing to pay admission so they could be present at their party’s gatherings.
A friend says:
I don’t think Cotto’s description is quite correct. He says, “Abduction is unlike both deduction, which proceeds from a universal rule to a specific case and then to a conclusion, and induction, which moves in the opposite direction. Abduction begins with the odd or inexplicable.” In a deductive inference, the conclusion *logically* follows from the premises, and doesn’t have to go from a “universal rule” to a specific cases. All mathematics is deduction. (a) If Smith has a hat the hat is black, (b) Smith has a hat, (c) Smith has a black hat” is deduction. People use “induction” kind of loosely, but it basically refers to statistical inferences. Statistics is the science of induction. Abduction means inference to the best explanation. All thinking people and animals employ abduction, but scientists supposedly do it on a higher level. The premises that are the basis of an abductive inference don’t have to be “odd or inexplicable”–it’s just normal everyday reasoning.
I think usually people don’t call it abductive *logic*, since it’s not exactly logic. Traditionally the main goal of philosophy of science was to explain how abduction/inference to the best explanation works, but so far it’s been a failure. People have distinguished lots of categories of induction/abduction.
I think the best way to understand scientific theories is as “research programs.” A research program posits a body of core explanatory principles to explain some evidence. All theories face empirical difficulties/counterexamples, so they must be supplemented with auxiliary hypotheses to explain away the counterexamples. Successful research programs produce auxiliary hypotheses that make successful new predictions, whereas unsuccessful programs require more and more rescuing hypotheses to explain counterexamples without making new predictions.
Maybe Hitler was good at coming up with narratives? I think the psychology of how narratives appeal to people should receive a lot more attention. It’s discussed a little in moral psychology, but it’s not a major issue.
Another friend says:
Abductive logic is just “inference to the best explanation” as far as I know. (I think I agree with what your anonymous friend said about this.) I mean, Hitler did use this mode of reasoning but then so does everyone. His anti-semitic “conspiracy theory” may have been largely based on abduction but it’s not clear to me why this would have been especially important in explaining his political successes (and there would seem to be all kinds of more straightforward and plausible explanations).
The claim that abduction is “immune from both refutation and normal logical objections” seems definitely false. In order to refute an argument of this kind you just need to come up with some better or equally good explanation for the fact in question. There might be room for debate about how exactly the quality of competing explanations should be gauged, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have reasonable objections to abductive reasoning. (Some alternative hypothesis might be equally simple and consistent with other known facts, etc.) There could also be “normal logical objections” to such reasoning. For example, it could be that the proposed hypothesis (i.e. the conclusion of the abductive argument) is internally inconsistent.
As for whether it would be considered a kind of logic, the answer is probably “Yes and no”. Because the word “logic” has been given different meanings. It’s not _formal_ logic because it can’t (so far) be reduced to mathematical or machine-checkable axioms and rules. (Formal logic deals with systems of reasoning where it’s possible to prove things given merely the structure or grammar or logical “form” of statements–in other words, regardless of meaning or content, context or psychology, etc.) On the other hand, philosophers often discuss “informal logic” as well. Basically, if “logic” refers to something specific and technical such as mathematical logic or truth-functional logic or modal logic, then abductive reasoning isn’t logic; but if “logic” just refers to all the different forms of reasoning then abductive reasoning is a kind of logic. At least I think this is what would be the mainstream opinion in philosophy.
Here is an entry from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy that might be useful. At least it will have lots of references to academic philosophical discussions of the topic.
From the German Studies Review:
Ben Novak—whose interdisciplinary PhD combines history, philosophy, and political science—wrestles with questions that he believes historians have not successfully answered: who was Hitler and why did he succeed in taking power over others who were better educated, more experienced, and better connected? Whereas numerous biographers of Hitler, the most recent being Ian Kershaw (1998, 2000), see Hitler as an impenetrable mystery, Novak seeks to make sense of him. Following Konrad Heiden (A History of National Socialism, 1971), who called attention to Hitler’s “natural gifts” (61), and the nineteenth-century American logician Charles Samuel [End Page 190] Pierce, Novak argues that the key to Hitler’s success was his mastery of a third form of logic besides deduction and induction known as “abduction” (20–21).
Abduction is unlike both deduction, which proceeds from a universal rule to a specific case and then to a conclusion, and induction, which moves in the opposite direction. Abduction begins with the odd or inexplicable. Proceeding from instinct and imagination, the observer reasons backwards from a puzzling occurrence to create a story out of what appear to be insignificant clues. In Hitler’s hands, abduction led to a simple but comprehensive explanation for seemingly incomprehensible events: the lost war, the punitive peace settlement, hyperinflation, and then the Depression. Only a criminal plot—an international conspiracy of communists, socialists, liberals, pacifists, and especially Jews—could explain the multiple traumas of interwar Germany. As Novak argues, abduction can provide a fruitful way to produce a working hypothesis in circumstances where no universal rules or foundational principles can be assumed. Hitler thus provided a compelling story that other Weimar politicians could not produce. His conspiratorial hypothesis was not open to refutation.
According to the author, abductive logic is as old as the “first caveman” (29), but its emergence in the popular literature of the late nineteenth century, such as Sherlock Holmes detective stories and Karl May’s westerns, was central to Hitler’s maturation. To make his case, Novak himself uses abductive logic to explain Hitler’s transformation from a socially well-adjusted, model student into a loner with little passion for school who angrily rejected his father’s desire that Adolf follow him into the Austro-Hungarian civil service. Rather than reject out of hand Hitler’s own testimony in Mein Kampf, which most historians consider too dubious to be credible, Novak takes it seriously as a point of departure, linking Hitler’s testimony with the other fragmentary evidence. Most scholars recognize that, by the age of eleven, Hitler had become a pathological mystery. Yet Novak argues that this change can be explained. His attraction to Karl May’s hero “Old Shatterhand” (first appearing in Winnetou in 1893), who abductively discovered truths about the world and his own existence, justified his rebelliousness and his growing belief in his own uniqueness. Hitler saw himself as extraordinary, too special to conform to the “department store” (161) world of bourgeois careerism that guided his early youth and his father’s expectations. Hence Hitler decided to become an artist, a profession with the freedom to allow his genius to thrive. After World War I, politics provided a different but equally creative path.
Novak’s contribution lies in his detailing the rationality of Hitler’s thinking. Neither sociopathic, irrational, opportunistic, nor mediumistic, Hitler was eminently logical. In his brief concluding chapter, Novak describes how the Führer seamlessly combined messianism with formidable business skills to assure his and his party’s success. By charging admission to party rallies, Hitler created a self-financing political entity while simultaneously enhancing Nazism’s revivalist novelty. By limiting photographs of himself, Hitler enhanced his personal magnetism and thus enticed even more people [End Page 191] to see him in person. According to Novak, Hitler’s riveting oratory was less significant to the growth of the Nazi Party than the creativity and solidity of his management.
Professor Steven Jefferson writes for Journal of Contemporary European Studies:
According to Ben Novak, three events that ‘set [Adolf Hitler] on the road to becoming Der Fuehrer (sic)’ were his distinct rejection of the idea of ordinary work and an ordinary life [ … ] at the age of eight; [the] formation of a personal identification with an abstract idea of the German people [ … ] at age nine; and [his] discovery of Karl May [ … ] at the age of eleven. (121)
It was during his extended engagement with May’s oeuvre, Novak explains, that Hitler internalised abductive logic, a mode of thought employed by the great detectives of literature and, crucially for Novak’s thesis, by some of May’s fictional protagonists.
Novak’s claim that something in Karl May’s books can explain the Holocaust, is based on a statement made by Hitler’s headmaster, Dr Eduard Huemer, in relation to Hitler’s post-Putsch arrest in 1923. Huemer testified that ‘Hitler seems to have been led astray by the stories of Karl May and tales of Red Indians’ (182). Novak focuses on Huemer’s specific choice of words: ‘led astray’ rather than ‘wasted time reading’. However, to assess the merits of Huemer’s statement, one would need to consider the original German, which Novak fails to provide. Nor does he provide a reference to the German source; a serious omission given the importance of this point to his thesis. Even without the translation, the claims Novak makes for this statement are unsupportable. Not only does Huemer mention ‘stories by Karl May’ but he also refers specifically to ‘and tales of Red Indians’. However, these could have been written by any number of authors, notably James Fenimore Cooper whose novels, Novak assures us, Hitler had also read (184). Huemer states that Hitler was ‘led astray’ both by Karl May stories and by ‘tales of Red Indians’. Yet, Novak asserts that this constitutes supporting evidence for the claim that Hitler was specifically ‘led astray’ by something he discovered in May’s stories. Huemer goes on to state that ‘no doubt an over-indulgence in such reading combined with the time wasted on drifting back and forth from home and school which was some distance apart, was mostly responsible for [Hitler’s] failure’ (182). This statement leaves little doubt that the headmaster attributed Hitler’s lacklustre school performance to his wasting time on reading per se and trekking long distances instead of studying for exams.
Turning to the substance of Novak’s core thesis, his assertion that Hitler was highly influenced by Karl May is unoriginal. In 1940, Klaus Mann attacked May’s oeuvre as the product of ‘a morbid and infantile brain’, which he claimed, without citing sources, had demonstrably influenced Hitler. According to Mann, ‘[a] whole generation in Germany grew brutish and ran wild—partly through
the evil influence of Karl May’ (Mann 1940a). He goes on to make the preposterous and outrageous claim that ‘[t]he Third Reich is Karl May’s ultimate triumph’ (Mann 1940b).Mann’s claim is preposterous for a number of reasons. First, there is no difference between May’s Westerns and those of non-German authors such as Captain Mayne Reid. Why then did not a whole generation in England or America grow brutish and run wild after reading the very books that may well have inspired May’s own oeuvre? Second, Karl May is one of the most translated authors ever: why then was the supposedly evil potential of his novels only realised in Germany? Third, far from being a cultural chauvinist or warmonger, May was a pacifist who faced down a whole generation of sabre-rattling militarists in the wake of the Boxer Rebellion by publishing and defending such programmatically ideological tracts as Et in terra pax (1901) later republished and expanded as Und Friede auf Erden (1904) (Ku¨rschner 1901; May 1958[1904]; Sudhoff et al. 2001). May’s pacifistic utterances were met with unbridled fury from the public and the Catholic Church. In 1938, by which time May had been dead for 20 years, Hitler’s NSDAP demanded drastic alterations to the text before approving the publication of an updated edition. Karl May, author, rogue, plagiarist and pacifist, may well have caught the young Hitler’s attention as he has fired the imaginations of tens of millions of
youngsters around the world for over 150 years. But to associate him and his oeuvre with this ‘genius’ of death is one of the greatest factual distortions that I have ever encountered.Novak’s scholarship remains underdeveloped. His ability to unfold a cogent argument based on verifiable evidence and reasonable assumptions is woefully inadequate. His decision to take the perpetrator of the greatest crime in recorded history to task, not for the role he played in the mass murder of Europe’s Jews and the destruction of the European order, but for his boyhood dalliance with the oeuvre of a competent, if at times uninspired, certainly harmless, author, goes beyond bad taste and poor judgement. In summary, this book exemplifies the free-for-all attitude towards Adolf Hitler and the Holocaust that many Anglophone authors, incredibly, seem to feel is appropriate—but which is not!
According to his self-description found at StateCollege.com:
Ben Novak is a retired attorney, writer and teacher.
He graduated from Penn State in 1965 with a BA in economics. In 1968 he received a J.D. degree from Georgetown University. Later, in 1999, he earned a Ph.D. at Penn State in the interdisciplinary doctoral studies program. His dissertation, entitled Hitler and Abductive Logic: The Strategy of a Tyrant, was published by Lexington Books in 2014.
After serving in the U.S. Army (1968-1970), including a year in Viet Nam, he practiced law in Centre County for more than three decades (1970-2001). From 1984 to 1987 he published the first regular (bi-weekly) column on beer appreciation; his columns were collected and published in 2013 as The Birth of the Craft Brew Revolution.
He founded and was the first president of both the Mount Nittany Conservancy, and the Lion Fraternity Alumni Association. He served four three-year terms on Penn State’s Board of Trustees as an Alumni Elected Trustee (1988-2000). In 2001, he retired to live and teach in Slovakia, the land of his ancestors in Europe, for seven years.
He now resides in Ave Maria, Florida, where he thanks God every day for the warm, sunny weather.
Posted in Adolf Hitler, Philosophy
Comments Off on Hitler and Abductive Logic: The Strategy of a Tyrant By Ben Novak
My Rules For Life
I look for ways to approach life that make me happy and prosperous, that enable me to get along with other people, and to have a sense of ease with myself, with others, with the universe and with God.
* I like the teaching found in the Alexander Technique that all beliefs are just unnecessary tension. I find that insight useful, though not necessarily true. There are many beliefs that are useful though not necessarily true. I’m happy to play with them.
* I like the idea that everybody should be appreciated in their own genre. That is my recasting of historicism. I want to understand people within their context.
* Not just everybody but every thing has its genre. I look for learning about biology among biologists, for learning about Talmud to Talmud scholars and to learn about history from historians. In general, the smarter and the more accomplished the person, the more seriously I take them.
* There are certain clues for people I do not take seriously. For example, if they base their teachings on their anger or their feelings, if they feel that they run the world, if they believe that there is a magic key to how history or the world works, I immediately dismiss them. If they consistently locate their troubles outside of themselves, I can’t take them seriously. I consider conspiracy theorists cranks and nutters.
* I believe we attract people into our lives and people create the kind of societies that chiefly reflect their genetic code when matched with a particular environment.
* I believe that I am an intellectual gigolo who falls in love with every attractive idea that comes along but stays loyal to none.
* I try to stay aware that I usually do not see the world as it is, but as I am.
* I try not to give my opinions undue weight, because every time I share a heavy one, I then feel compelled to defend it, and I dig myself a hole.
* I don’t know of any moral teaching more valuable than that one should act as if what you are doing and saying will be reported accurately on the front page of the New York Times tomorrow. I guess that’s my principle moral code.
* I think the more integrated your life, the better. The fewer secrets the better. The more honesty the better. I like to ask myself regularly — what am I hiding that should be shared with others? What am I ashamed about? Who do I resent? What am I lying about? What relationships and situations am I in that weigh me down? Do I have unnecessary possessions and tensions? And then I clean house and help others.
Posted in Personal
Comments Off on My Rules For Life
The Varieties of Religious Experience: A Study in Human Nature (1902) By William James
* There can be no doubt that as a matter of fact a religious life, exclusively pursued, does tend to make the person exceptional and eccentric… We must make search rather for the original experiences which were the pattern-setters to all this mass of suggested feeling and imitated conduct. These experiences we can only find in individuals for whom religion exists not as a dull habit, but as an acute fever rather. But such individuals are “geniuses” in the religious line; and like many other geniuses who have brought forth fruits effective enough for commemoration in the pages of biography, such religious geniuses have often shown symptoms of nervous instability. Even more perhaps than other kinds of genius, religious leaders have been subject to abnormal psychical visitations. Invariably they have been creatures of exalted emotional sensibility. [pg 007] Often they have led a discordant inner life, and had melancholy during a part of their career. They have known no measure, been liable to obsessions and fixed ideas; and frequently they have fallen into trances, heard voices, seen visions, and presented all sorts of peculiarities which are ordinarily classed as pathological. Often, moreover, these pathological features in their career have helped to give them their religious authority and influence.
* The greater the genius, the greater the unsoundness.
* What right have we to believe Nature under any obligation to do her work by means of complete minds only? She may find an incomplete mind a more suitable instrument for a particular purpose.
* In the history of Christian mysticism the problem how to discriminate between such messages and experiences as were really divine miracles, and such others as the demon in his malice was able to counterfeit, thus making the religious person twofold more the child of hell he was before, has always been a difficult one to solve, needing all the sagacity and experience of the best directors of conscience. In the end it had to come to our empiricist criterion: By their fruits ye shall know them…
* The roots of a man’s virtue are inaccessible to us. No appearances whatever are infallible proofs of grace. Our practice is the only sure evidence.
* it always leads to a better understanding of a thing’s significance to consider its exaggerations and perversions, its equivalents and substitutes and nearest relatives elsewhere.
* “Plenty of people wish well to any good cause, but very few care to exert themselves to help it, and still fewer will risk anything in its support.”
* Thus, in the soul of man there is a justice whose retributions are instant and entire. He who does a good deed is instantly ennobled. He who does a mean deed is by the action itself contracted. He who puts off impurity thereby puts on purity…If a man dissemble, deceive, he deceives himself, and goes out of acquaintance with his own being. Character is always known. Thefts never enrich; alms never impoverish; murder will speak out of stone walls. The least admixture of a lie— for example, the taint of vanity, any attempt to make a good impression, a favorable appearance— will instantly vitiate the effect. But speak the truth, and all things alive or brute are vouchers…
* “If you love and serve men, you cannot by any hiding or stratagem escape the remuneration.” (Ralph Waldo Emerson)
* “He believes in No-God, and he worships him,” said a colleague of mine of a student who was manifesting a fine atheistic ardor; and the more fervent opponents of Christian doctrine have often enough shown a temper which, psychologically considered, is indistinguishable from religious zeal.
* Be ready for anything— that perhaps is wisdom. Give ourselves up, according to the hour, to confidence, to skepticism, to optimism, to irony, and we may be sure that at certain moments at least we shall be with the truth…. Good-humor is a philosophic state of mind; it seems to say to Nature that we take her no more seriously than she takes us. I maintain that one should always talk of philosophy with a smile.
* Religious feeling is thus an absolute addition to the Subject’s range of life. It gives him a new sphere of power. When the outward battle is lost, and the outer world disowns him, it redeems and vivifies an interior world which otherwise would be an empty waste.
* Religion thus makes easy and felicitous what in any case is necessary…
* Were one asked to characterize the life of religion in the broadest and most general terms possible, one might say that it consists of the belief that there is an unseen order, and that our supreme good lies in harmoniously adjusting ourselves thereto.
* We can act as if there were a God; feel as if we were free; consider Nature as if she were full of special designs; lay plans as if we were to be immortal; and we find then that these words do make a genuine difference in our moral life.
* The sentiment of reality can indeed attach itself so strongly to our object of belief that our whole life is polarized through and through, so to speak, by its sense of the existence of the thing believed in, and yet that thing, for purpose of definite description, can hardly be said to be present to our mind at all.
* I do not yet say that it is better that the subconscious and non-rational should thus hold primacy in the religious realm. I confine myself to simply pointing out that they do so hold it as a matter of fact.
* If we were to ask the question: “What is human life’s chief concern?” one of the answers we should receive would be: “It is happiness.” How to gain, how to keep, how to recover happiness, is in fact for most men at all times the secret motive of all they do, and of all they are willing to endure.
* If a creed makes a man feel happy, he almost inevitably adopts it. Such a belief ought to be true; [pg 079] therefore it is true.
* beliefs:— 1. That the visible world is part of a more spiritual universe from which it draws its chief significance; 2. That union or harmonious relation with that higher universe is our true end; 3. That prayer or inner communion with the spirit thereof— be that spirit “God” or “law”— is a process wherein work is really done, and spiritual energy flows in and produces effects, psychological or material, within the phenomenal world. Religion includes also the following psychological characteristics:— 4. A new zest which adds itself like a gift to life, and takes the form either of lyrical enchantment or of appeal to earnestness and heroism.
5. An assurance of safety and a temper of peace, and, in relation to others, a preponderance of loving affections.
* If we are peevish and jealous, destruction of the self must be an element of our religion; why need it be one if we are good and sympathetic from the outset? If we are sick souls, we require a religion of deliverance; but why think so much [pg 488] of deliverance, if we are healthy-minded?
* The warring gods and [pg 508] formulas of the various religions do indeed cancel each other, but there is a certain uniform deliverance in which religions all appear to meet. It consists of two parts:— 1. An uneasiness; and 2. Its solution. 1. The uneasiness, reduced to its simplest terms, is a sense that there is something wrong about us as we naturally stand. 2. The solution is a sense that we are saved from the wrongness by making proper connection with the higher powers.
* We and God [pg 517] have business with each other; and in opening ourselves to his influence our deepest destiny is fulfilled. The universe, at those parts of it which our personal being constitutes, takes a turn genuinely for the worse or for the better in proportion as each one of us fulfills or evades God’s demands.
* Religion, in fact, for the great majority of our own race means immortality, and nothing else. God is the producer of immortality; and whoever has doubts of immortality is written down as an atheist without farther trial.
* The existence of the chance makes [pg 527] the difference, as Edmund Gurney says, between a life of which the keynote is resignation and a life of which the keynote is hope.
Posted in Religion
Comments Off on The Varieties of Religious Experience: A Study in Human Nature (1902) By William James
Conspiracy Theories & The JFK Assassination
Posted in Conspiracy, JFK
Comments Off on Conspiracy Theories & The JFK Assassination
Richard Jewell – My Favorite Movie Of 2019
Steve Sailer wrote Dec. 18, 2019:
Richard Jewell is director Clint Eastwood’s well-acted, solidly scripted biopic about the racial-profiling fiasco that undermined the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing investigation. The FBI monomaniacally targeted an innocent rent-a-cop for being a Frustrated White Man, and then leaked his name to the press despite never having any actual evidence against him.
Much of the media has denounced Clint’s movie for casting aspersions upon America’s noble Deep State. Just because our beloved Intelligence Community has a lamentable track record of going off on wild-goose chases against innocent citizens and then inviting the press to pile on to turn their daily existences into living hells is no reason to, you know, make a movie about it. Some bits of history are best swept under the rug.
The New Yorker, for example, is hallucinatory with rage about the film:
“Yet, paradoxically, there is another woman—an ultra-competent and accomplished woman—who’s never mentioned and never seen and yet is obliquely, perhaps unintentionally, implied throughout the movie: Hillary Rodham Clinton.”
Uh…no, actually the movie is not at all about Hillary.
Fortunately.
Jewell was working security during a concert at Atlanta’s downtown Centennial Park when he noticed a suspicious backpack under a bench. He began to clear the crowd, so when the three pipe bombs inside exploded thirteen minutes later, only one person was killed.
Jewell was initially acclaimed a hero. But when the FBI couldn’t come up with a clue who the terrorist was, they began to obsess over the notion that Jewell fit the profile of the lone white male who wants so much to be the good guy that he becomes the bad guy.
The FBI leaked this wild surmise to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which explained to its readers:
This profile generally includes a frustrated white man who is a former police officer, member of the military or police “wanna-be” who seeks to become a hero.
This was not a wholly ridiculous conjecture. For example, firemen who love fighting fires so much that they turn arsonist are hardly unknown. Joseph Wambaugh’s true-crime book Fire Lover tells of an arson investigator in my neighborhood who used to set stores where my mother shopped on fire so he could call in the first report.
But this is a memorable phenomenon, precisely because it’s also a fairly rare one.
The 1990s were the peak of the prestige of the FBI’s fad of “criminal-profiling” the perpetrators of exotic incidents, which was seen as more moral and scientific than the despised practice of racially profiling crack dealers.
Racial profiling relies upon common stereotypes about common criminals—for instance, that the black youth standing on the corner who dresses and acts like a drug dealer might indeed be a drug dealer. It tends to work because stereotypes are almost always statistically true on average. But the entire subject of black crime is so depressing and repetitious that everybody officially pretends that racial profiling can’t possibly work.
In contrast, the much more respectable form of profiling tries to predict the personalities of felons of glamour crimes like serial murders and Olympic bombings. Many movies have been made about genius FBI profilers who solve mysteries by getting inside the twisted minds of psycho killers. Unfortunately, as Malcolm Gladwell scoffed in 2007 with only modest exaggeration, “It is not a triumph of forensic analysis. It’s a party trick.”
The fundamental problem is that the unusual crimes that obsess the press are, by definition, unusual, and thus their profilers must draw upon much smaller sample sizes than routine crimes like crack dealing.
For instance, in an even more important case, the post-9/11 anthrax murders that helped drive the Intelligence Community so nuts that it argued for invading Iraq, the FBI spent six years tormenting bioweapons expert Steven Hatfill before paying him about $5 million for their abuse.
In all the media reports I read about journalist Kathy Scruggs, I don’t recall any of them pointing out she died by a drug overdose.
From Vanity Fair, Dec. 13, 2019:
But ever since the film premiered at the AFI Fest in November, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s editor-in-chief, Kevin Riley, has insisted that the film—written by Oscar-winning screenwriter Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)—gets integral facts wrong. Specifically, Riley has pointed to a scene in Richard Jewell that implies Scruggs, who died in 2001, traded sex for stories—a scene that has incited an internet firestorm and prompted the AJC to demand a disclaimer on the movie. Rolling Stone’s film critic Peter Travers wrote in his review, “The attempt to slut-shame a reporter who’s not around to defend herself stands as a black mark in a film that otherwise hews close to the proven facts of the case.” Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times wrote, “An accurate movie script about a female reporter would involve her being constantly propositioned or harassed by people she covers, while being invited to evening ‘meetings’ that somehow turn into involuntary dates with sources, and bombarded with rape threats on Twitter.” Added Melissa Gomez of the Los Angeles Times, “Hollywood has, for a long time, portrayed female journalists as sleeping with sources to do their job. It’s so deeply wrong, yet they continue to do it. Disappointing that they would apply this tired and sexist trope about Kathy Scruggs, a real reporter.”
On Thursday, Ray defended the film—explaining that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution seems to be pulling focus to “one single minute in a movie that’s 129 minutes long.” Wilde also tweeted to respond to the controversy, saying,“I do not believe Kathy traded sex for tips” and “it was never my intention to suggest she had.” Ray and Brenner, among others, claim that the outsize focus on the Scruggs scene is a deliberate effort to deflect from the real story: the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s flawed, and destructive, reporting on Jewell.
The implication about Scruggs in Richard Jewell is seemingly rooted in the film’s extra source material, the book by Georgia U.S. Attorney Kent Alexander and Wall Street Journal reporter Kevin Salwen—The Suspect: An Olympic Bombing, the FBI, the Media, and Richard Jewell, the Man Caught in the Middle. The book describes Scruggs as the kind of woman who packed perfume and a pistol in her purse, wore leather miniskirts and fishnet tights to the office, and kept her blouse unbuttoned beyond what some might feel was workplace-appropriate. The reporter’s attire, according to Alexander and Salwen, “did little to dispel a growing ‘sleeps with her sources’ reputation.” But in a statement to Vanity Fair’s Joe Pompeo this week, the authors clarified that their five years of research—which encompassed “dozens of interviews about Scruggs and an examination of thousands of pages of her deposition testimony and news articles”—never turned up evidence that Scruggs ever traded sex for a story.
Mike King, a former Atlanta Journal-Constitution editor who worked with Scruggs for about eight years, said that, save for that glaring implication, Richard Jewell largely seems to get Scruggs right.
“If you wanted to draw a Hollywood stereotype of a hard-charging female cops reporter, Kathy would fit that bill pretty well,” King said during a phone call with Vanity Fair on Wednesday. “She was a great reporter who used her strength of personality and her looks to work sources…. When you’re a cop reporter, you have to be able to throw it and show it—get in there with them and not take any shit off them. She was great at that, and I think that’s one of the reasons why she was so successful working with cop sources—whether it was beat cops or detectives in the homicide squad. She was pretty fearless…. But it’s just jumping over that last wall to make it look like she traded sexual favors for information. That’s just bullshit.”
Author Robert Coram had a front-row seat to Scruggs’s dealings with law enforcement in the mid ’90s. While researching his first novel, Atlanta Heat, Coram spent several days a week for a few years at Manuel’s Tavern—the homicide cop hangout where Scruggs would sidle up to cops over liquid lunches and happy hours in hopes of coaxing out new information.
“All the cops knew her and respected her and kidded her a lot,” said Coram, who based a character in Atlanta Heat on Scruggs. “I never heard any of them, even when they were drinking, say anything negative about her personally or professionally. The only thing that came close to it was one of them told me one day, ‘You can tell how badly Kathy needs a story by how short her skirt is that day.’”
To Brenner, though, “The Kathy Scruggs situation is much more layered and complicated.” Scruggs’s own brother Lewis has publicly remarked on his sister’s wild streak, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “She was a little bit rebellious…. Her choice of boyfriends was not great.” While King was clear that Scruggs had never slept with sources, he told Vanity Fair that the reporter had “in-house romances [at the paper] that caused us to have to say, ‘You stay over here, you stay over there. Y’all stay away from each other, if at all possible.’ Ya know?”
Brenner never reported on rumors about Scruggs’s romantic life. “Why is that anyone’s business?” Brenner told Vanity Fair. “How this story and source was gotten was never my interest.”
When Brenner read the rumor about Scruggs trading sex for stories in Alexander and Salwen’s book, she felt it was deeply problematic: “Inevitably men get it wrong when they try to write about a woman’s sexuality.”
Both Brenner and Billy Ray, though, say the focus on Scruggs is a diversionary tactic. “This movie is about a hero whose life was completely destroyed by myths created by the FBI and the media, specifically the AJC,” Ray told Deadline. “The AJC hung Richard Jewell, in public…. They editorialized wildly and printed assumptions as facts. They compared him to noted mass murderer Wayne Williams. And this was after he had saved hundreds of lives. Now a movie comes along 23 years later, a perfect chance for the AJC to atone for what they did to Richard and to admit to their misdeeds. And what do they decide to do? They launch a distraction campaign. They deflect and distort…opting to challenge one assertion in the movie rather than accepting their own role in destroying the life of a good man. The movie isn’t about Kathy Scruggs; it’s about the heroism and hounding of Richard Jewell, and what rushed reporting can do to an innocent man. And by the way, I will stand by every word and assertion in the script.”
Said Brenner, “I was appalled by the reflexive snobberies and obliviousness of consequences that the AJC never addressed. The most important rule of reporting is never to reveal a suspect’s name without corroborating evidence. They had none—and neither did the FBI. I am sorry, but it is not enough to say, “law enforcement thinks.” And they didn’t even say that.” Citing the paper that reported there was no evidence against Jewell, Brenner said, “The New York Timesand its editor Joe Lelyveld knew better.”
King acknowledged that the Richard Jewell case “was a turning point in a lot of newspaper discussions about where to draw the line when on identifying suspects…. And I think those are good lessons to share with a movie-going audience, that there are people who are the subject of newspaper stories and of government investigations who look as guilty as Richard appeared to look in those initial stories but who ultimately are totally innocent and whose reputations are dragged through the mud for all the wrong reasons.”
Scruggs died in 2001 from a prescription drug overdose, due, in part, to a chronic back problem, still troubled by the repercussions of her Jewell reporting.
The Netflix series Mindhunter is based on the John Douglas book about serial killer profiling.
* I had finished grad school and was living in Montgomery County, Maryland in 2002 when the Beltway sniper was picking off people at gas stations and store parking lots. Like everyone else in the area I followed the case very closely. In the October 14 shooting in Manassas, VA I even drove to the area right after the news broke to watch the dragnet. I saw how piss-poor it was. On one corner there were dozens of guys in FBI, DEA, ATF,… flak jackets quickly scanning cars with flashlights. It was clear they were looking for a particular description.
I devoured all news. I watched CNN, Fox News, MSNBC nonstop. I clearly recall every criminal profiler, including former FBI profilers Clint Van Zandt and Robert Ressler, as well as Pat Brown, say with an air of metaphysical certitude that it was a white male. Brown went further and said it was probably a white nationalist type. Anyway, I think we know the rest of the story.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2002-12-15-0212160297-story.html
Facing the Beltway snipers, profilers were dead wrong
Elsbeth Bothe
THE BALTIMORE SUN
December 15, 2002The typical mass murderer is extraordinarily ordinary,” says James Alan Fox, author of books titled The Will to Kill: Making Sense of Senseless Murder, (Pearson Education, 2000) and Overkill: Mass Murder & Serial Killing Exposed, (Da Capo Press, 1994). He is also a teacher with a textbook: How to Work with the Media (Sage Press, 1993), and maintains a self-promoting Web site named Wolfman Productions. Facilely exploiting his experience in both areas, Fox had previously managed to become a talking head on high-rated broadcast shows.
During the tempestuous three weeks of this October, while the media raged and the Beltway Sniper rampaged, Fox, his colleagues and competitors were truly in their glory. A cross section of ordinary people were being slaughtered as they went their usual ways within range of an assault rifle. That was the only link connecting the crimes — ten dead, three critically wounded — pedestrians, motorists pumping gas, shoppers, a schoolboy, a bus driver. With little to supplement repetitious accounts of the continuing killings, the media offered limitless space for the speculations of self-aggrandizing experts on whodunnit.
“He stops and shoots and doesn’t hear the screams,” Fox dramatically divulged to his alarmed audience. “Others enjoy squeezing the last breath from their victim. It makes it easier for him psychologically to murder.” Clifton Van Zandt, a former FBI profiler, agreed: “This is someone who is cold, who is calculating, who has the skills and doesn’t care who they hurt.”
“This could be a disgruntled employee who was fired. It is someone who is angry,” offered Brent Turvey, who wrote Criminal Profiling: An Introduction to Behavioral Evidence Analysis, (Academic Press, 1999) Turvey was echoed by Robert K. Ressler, best-selling author of I Have Lived in the Monster (St Martin’s Press, 1998), and Whoever Fights Monsters: My Twenty Years Tracking Serial Killers for the FBI, (St.Martin’s Press, 1993).
Where does the Beltway Sniper hang out? “He’s a weekday warrior. Even snipers have jobs,” declared Fox. On the theory that serial killers strike close to home, D. Kim Rossmo, author of Geographic Profiling (CRC Press, 1999), applied his computerized mapping techniques, which, according to him, narrow the police target by 95 percent on average. “The more killings you have, the better it works,” said the software manufacturer.
Ressler lamented that there were “no behavioral clues at the scene.” Indeed, even the parameters of the sites were uncertain — from where were the shots fired? There were no eyewitnesses, just bodies hit with matching bullets, and sightings of a motor vehicle thought to be a light-colored truck or van. “That vehicle will be in a garage or a lake,” predicted Van Zandt.
The experts were neither misogynists nor racists. They all agreed with Van Zandt that “this is something white males do.” Fox and Van Zandt, along with most others…
* The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s defense of Kathy Scruggs was absurd. It included the following passage about her getting scoops from law enforcement:
“Whenever something would happen, the police would call Kathy. They always trusted her to get the scoop because they knew it would be handled right. She was proud the FBI called her about Jewell. She was proud of the way she reported it to begin with.”
She was essentially a PR person for the FBI. It also conceded that she was a hard partying, pill popping drunk who was once found naked in a taxi at 3 AM, but she never would have slept with a source for a scoop and it is slander that Eastwood put that in his movie. They also don’t understand why the average person thinks they are pushing an agenda and are not a fair and impartial source of factual information for the public.
* Andrew Bacevich has made the point — with regard to military personnel — that as a culture we need to get past this reflexive “respect” for everyone wearing a uniform. As he puts it (I’m paraphrasing) the people in the military are just people.
* FBI profilers got the Unabomber wrong too.
* The idea of psychological profiling was popularised by film and TV. In response, universities began providing courses in “Forensic Psychology”. The fact that law enforcement agencies do not recognise this discipline or its qualifications is irrelevant, as is the general failure of psychological profiling itself.
The bombing and framing of Richard Jewell came out of the interplay of social forces resident in Atlanta and the FBI’s dealings in the city, which included institutional guilt for bugging the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr. and successfully using criminal profiling techniques to find Wayne Williams, the Atlanta child murderer. Unlike many other American cities, Atlanta had a less traumatic experience with “civil rights” rioting in the late 1960s. The city’s political elite came to believe that Atlanta’s economic performance caused the “civil rights” riots to simply pass them over, and they developed the moniker that Atlanta was “the city too busy to hate.”
However, having a moniker with “hate” in it means there is plenty of hate to go around. Atlanta, and the rest of Georgia, is not socially stable along racial lines. The moniker also implies that one must be ever “busy” to avoid being overwhelmed by “hate.” Mayor Andrew Young made a bid for Atlanta to host the Olympic Games in 1990. Mayor Young claimed that he lived within 50 yards of the local Nazi Party headquarters as a child, [1] and was thus motivated for anti-racist reasons to host the games. Competition was stiff as Athens, Greece was also making a bid.
The book inadvertently highlights the unseen logic of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Christopher Caldwell has called it “a second constitution,” meaning that just as the US Constitution allows for 30 round magazines although the Founders only knew of flintlock rifles, the things implied by the Civil Rights Act but not explicitly specified have a legal force all their own. This is different from other laws, where lawyers and judges find all sorts of loopholes or the various bodies of law that aren’t enforced at all.
In the case of Richard Jewell, the implications of the Civil Rights Act fall into two categories: The first is the criminalization of voluntary civic virtue in things like security or neighborhood watches by whites. When working-class whites are free to act to defend their community, the problems of crime are easily controllable, but “civil rights” is a system that cannot tolerate this. Ordinary citizens suppressing crime means ordinary whites can suppress blacks and other non-whites.
The second implication of the Civil Rights Act is that all whites, especially working-class white men, must be the threat. It’s the same principle at work in NATO — “the Russians” must be the threat no matter what the circumstances.
In the early 1960s, the FBI became the enforcement arm of the “civil rights” movement as well as the corresponding Civil Rights Act. As a result, the entire institution was arranged to see Southern, white, working-class men as the enemy, no matter what the circumstances.
Indeed, “civil rights” and affirmative action policies helped the real bomber carry out his attack. He called in a warning to Atlanta’s 911 from a payphone. However, Atlanta’s 911 center was not staffed with the sharpest folks. One can see from the transcript below that black dysfunction was a factor in the attack’s success:
Dispatcher: Zone 5.
911 Operator: You know the address to Centennial Park?
Dispatcher: Girl, don’t ask me to lie to you.
911 Operator: I tried to call ACC, but ain’t nobody answering the phone . . . but I just got this man called talking about there’s a bomb set to go off in thirty minutes in Centennial Park.
Dispatcher: Oh Lord, child. Uh, OK, wait a minute. Centennial Park, you put it in and it won’t go in?
911 Operator: No, unless I’m spelling Centennial wrong. How are we spelling Centennial?
Dispatcher: C-E-N-T-E-N-N-I—how do you spell Centennial?
911 Operator: I’m spelling it right, it [the computer] ain’t taking. [2]While they did their best, it is clear the black 911 dispatchers lost critical time when they couldn’t find the address to the Centennial Park. Additionally, no 911 dispatcher had thought to get multiple phone numbers to the Olympics’ security headquarters or to the security tower at Centennial Park.
Here are highlights from the book The Suspect: An Olympic Bombing, the FBI, the Media, and Richard Jewell, the Man Caught in the Middle:
* All those weaknesses were trivial compared with the troubles in Atlanta’s tired and failing downtown. Crime was rampant, with the murder rate consistently among the nation’s worst. White flight and congested roadways had taken their toll. Despite strong growth in suburban areas, the city’s core was shrinking and left Atlanta as the hole in a doughnut, with a population of just 450,000 in a metro area of more than four million.
Posted in Hollywood
Comments Off on Richard Jewell – My Favorite Movie Of 2019
Corona Virus – Not The Flu
I’ve seen people compare the new coronavirus to influenza. Some have said that we should worry more about the flu, since it kills every year (maybe 10,000 in the US last year). They are mistaken. The danger in this case is not entirely clear, but on the high end, we’re talking big trouble, way bigger than current influenza strains.
Current flu strains seem much less severe that this new coronavirus, much less likely to put you in intensive care or kill you. Fewer people are susceptible to the flu: we have a vaccine, and most people already have some degree of immunity from vaccination and past bouts with the flu. We have somewhat useful antiviral drugs for the flu.
2019-nCoV: it’s new, nobody is immune. As yet we don’t know of antiviral drugs that are effective against it, although people are certainly trying out existing ones. Perhaps we will get lucky. We will be working on a vaccine, and that is likely to succeed eventually, but that takes time, on the order of a year or more. Supportive care is helpful: ventilation and oxygen can give you time to beat the virus…
The only thing you can be confident of is that the situation is no _better_ than the official line – the current story is against interest, very bad for business.
Comments:
At first I thought he was alarmist, but then I googled him and saw he actually had a good predictive record during the Zika & Ebola outbreaks (which, at the time, was non-alarmist).
* There’s a luxury cruise liner (the Diamond Princess) currently anchored in quarantine in Yokohama. It had one old guy on board who disembarked in Hong Kong before it sailed for Japan, and he tested positive for 2019-nCoV in HK. The ship has 3,100 passengers and crew. All passengers are now confined to their cabins for 14 days straight, and it’s no longer luxurious; it’s a floating prison. But it seems to represent a nice little confined sample to get some numbers from, although I suspect the R0 might be at or towards the upper end. Cruise ships are floating coffins at the best of times, and this is not the best of times.
So far they have tested 273 passengers. 61 of the 273 have tested positive for the coronavirus, and they have been taken off and hospitalized. People who have tested negative have to stay on board, so they could still yet become infected by multiple different pathways, despite cabin confinement. Eventually they will have to test all 3,100. It seems to be taking them a long time, or maybe I’m just impatient. Or maybe for me time has dilated because I’m now in a constant state of being hyper-alert, induced by the ‘situation’ (which is really not a good way to be for very long, and I’ve been through this shit three times – once during a polio epidemic which I still vividly remember when I was 3 years old before there was any vaccine, once during the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003, and now this, and it gets very old very quickly).
* This is a great example of watching what people do versus what they say. The way China has responded is far out of line with a severe flu outbreak. Instead, they are acting on the belief this thing is both highly contagious and deadly. At the minimum, the party sees this as a threat to stability.
I think the way to bet is they are acting out of ignorance. They don’t know what they have on their hands in terms of the disease itself and just how many people have been infected. The fear of the unknown is driving the response.
There’s also the endemic dishonesty in the Chinese bureaucracy. The people at the bottom lie to their bosses, who then lie to their bosses. The people at the top understand this and they may be trying to motivate these people to exaggerate the severity. That way they are always working from the worst case scenario.
Posted in Health
Comments Off on Corona Virus – Not The Flu
Dennis Prager – Intellectual Vulgarian?
Paul Gottfried said January 28, 2020: “I think he’s an intellectual vulgarian of a kind I have rarely encountered in this world. He has said such ridiculous things about history, fascism, democracy and so forth that it has hard for me to bestow any respect on his intellectual accomplishments.”
Posted in Dennis Prager, Paul Gottfried
Comments Off on Dennis Prager – Intellectual Vulgarian?
Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class By Charles Murray
Here are some excerpts from this new book:
* In 1960, a few years before second-wave feminism took off in the United States, only 41 percent of women ages 25–54 were in the labor force. In 2018, that figure stood at 75 percent. By 2015, women had a presence in high-status jobs that was inconceivable in 1960. From 1960 to 2018, women went from 1 percent of civil engineers to 17 percent; from 5 percent of attorneys to 35 percent; from 8 percent of physicians to 42 percent. Not a single woman was the CEO of a Fortune 500 company in 1960, nor would there be any until 1972.34 In 2018, 25 women were Fortune 500 CEOs, among them the chief executives of General Motors, IBM, PepsiCo, Lockheed Martin, Oracle, and General Dynamics. In 1960, there was one woman in the U.S. Senate. After the 2018 election, there were 25. In the 1960 House of Representatives, there were 19 women. After the 2018 election, there were 102. Female students from elementary school through college have long had higher mean grade point averages than males in most subjects (including math).35 But in 1960 women were nonetheless a minority of entering college students (46 percent), and the gap grew during the undergraduate years. Almost two males got a bachelor’s degree for every woman who did. In 1982, the number of women getting bachelor’s degrees surpassed the number of men. The gap continued to widen subsequently. By 2016, 1,082,669 women got bachelor’s degrees compared to 812,669 men—a 33 percent difference.
* In 1960, 20 men got a professional degree for every woman who did. By 1970, the ratio was less than 10 to 1. By 1980, it was less than 3 to 1. In 2005, women caught up with men. Since then, more women have gotten more professional degrees than men in every year. As of 2016, 93,778 women got a professional degree compared to 84,089 men.
* Peoples of the world have probably had words that mean “people different from us” as long as they have had language. A common practice in isolated tribes has been to call one’s own tribe humans and everyone else nonhumans. By the end of the sixteenth century, the word race had entered the English language, originally used loosely to refer to people of common descent, identified with their common culture and geographic place. Increasing contact with the peoples peoples of Africa and Asia led to distinctions based on differences in appearance. In popular usage, whites in Europe began to group races based on skin color—white, black, yellow, brown, and red. In the eighteenth century, science got involved. Naturalists Carl Linnaeus and Johann Blumenbach proposed formal groupings of populations into races based on distinctive morphological features. By the middle of the nineteenth century, scholars had decided that the different races were not only cosmetically and morphologically distinctive but also had different personality and intellectual characteristics.
* Among almost all living things that reproduce sexually, the sex with the smaller gametes (males) provides less care after fertilization than the sex with the larger gametes (females).
* Interbreeding produces a visible blend in the first generation of progeny, but the heritage of one of the parents wins out over the long run. It remains surprisingly true even today: America has one of the most ethnically diverse populations in the world, with the most opportunities for children of mixed parentage to mate with other children of mixed parentage, and yet, for example, among American women who have a European American and a Chinese American parent, 82 percent marry a European American husband, putting their children (now only a quarter ethnically Chinese) on the road toward eventual indistinguishability from fully European Americans.
* A modern experimental example is the Siberian silver fox. In 1959, Soviet biologist Dmitry Belyaev decided to reproduce the evolution of wolves into domesticated domesticated dogs.33 Instead of using actual wolves, he obtained Siberian silver foxes from Soviet fur farms and began to breed them for tameness. The foxes were not trained in any way, nor were they selected for anything except specific indicators of tameness as puppies. In the fourth generation, Belyaev produced the first fox puppies that would wag their tails when a human approached. In the sixth generation, he had puppies who were eager to establish human contact, whimpering to attract attention, licking their handlers—in short, acting like dogs. By the tenth generation, 18 percent of puppies exhibited these characteristics from birth. By the twentieth generation, that proportion had grown to 35 percent.
Even though the rapid effects of breeding were well known, it had generally been assumed until the 1950s that natural selection in the wild must move more slowly. Then British geneticist Bernard Kettlewell realized that within his own lifetime the wings of many types of moths had changed from light to dark in industrial areas of England. He began experiments in which he released light-and dark-winged peppered moths in unpolluted and polluted forests (the bark on trees in polluted forests having been darkened by industrial smoke and soot). He found that the daily mortality rate of the light-winged moths was twice that of the dark-winged variety in the polluted forests and subsequently elaborated on that finding to prove that natural selection was the cause.34 (Let us pause for a moment: Try to imagine the patience and doggedness it takes to determine daily mortality rates of moths over several acres of land.) Since Kettlewell’s work, rapid response to environmental change has been demonstrated in many species—for example, Italian wall lizards, cane toads, house sparrows, and, most famously, in the beaks of finches living on the Galápagos Islands.
* For highly charged topics such as IQ, many people will continue to urge that studying population differences does more harm than good. But what happens if findings from European samples about cognitive-related traits such as depression, autism, or schizophrenia lead to more effective treatments for Europeans but not for other populations? It will be ethically imperative to study the genetics of mental disorders in other populations as well, which means studying the ways in which they differ from Europeans. The idea that geneticists could ignore ancestral population differences indefinitely was always implausible. It is now out of the question.
* Two examples of significant genetic differences across populations have been sitting in plain sight for decades: lactase persistence and susceptibility to sickle cell anemia. Both of these are major adaptations involving many biological systems. For that matter, lightening of skin pigmentation, passed off as trivial because it is only “skin deep,” is genetically more complicated than “skin deep” implies.[23] Why, given these examples of complex adaptation that obviously occurred after the Africa exodus, should it ever have been assumed that they were the only ones?
* Genetic disorders among Ashkenazi Jews. As early as the 1880s, it was noted that Tay-Sachs disease occurred almost exclusively among Ashkenazi Jews. Over the years, several other genetic disorders have been found to be far more prevalent among Ashkenazi Jews than in any other population. The causes of the difference in prevalence are still unresolved. One possibility is a population bottleneck around a thousand years ago, as argued in a 2018 study that analyzed 5,685 Ashkenazi Jewish exomes. The alleles in question included ones for Tay-Sachs.32
Another possibility is that natural selection has been at work. In 2009, before access to GWA, Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending argued that case, observing that the Jewish genetic disorders are oddly grouped:
“Imagine a fat biochemistry textbook, where each page describes a different function or condition in human biochemistry. Most of the Ashkenazi diseases would be described on just two of those pages. The two most important important genetic disease clusters among the Ashkenazim are the sphingoloid storage disorders (Tay-Sachs disease; Goucher’s disease; Niemann-Pick disease; and mucolipidosis, type IV) and the disorders of DNA repair (BRCA1 and BRCA2; Fanconi anemia, type C; and Bloom syndrome).33 If a population bottleneck were the sole explanation, they calculated that the odds of finding four disorders that affect sphingolipid metabolism would have been about 1 in 100,000.”[34]
The authors concluded instead that we are looking at recently evolved differences across populations. While the explanation remains unclear, this much is undisputed: The disorders are genetic, and so are population differences separating Ashkenazi Jews from everyone else.
* We already know of a genetically-grounded population difference on a highly sensitive trait that is far, far larger than any ancestral population difference we are going to find. The populations in question are males and females. The highly sensitive trait is the commission of physical violence against other humans. The undoubted genetic source of the difference is the Y chromosome. How big is the difference? Judge it by this: About 90 percent of all homicides are committed by males.41
If we can live with a population difference that huge on such an important behavioral trait, we can easily live with the smaller differences in continental populations that are likely to be found. The differences that will be documented during the coming years should be greeted with “That’s interesting.” I fear that the orthodoxy’s insistence that population differences in cognitive repertoires cannot exist ensures that they initially won’t be greeted that way.[42] But they should be.
* Educational attainment by sex. Even without adjusting for anything, there’s no female disadvantage to worry about when it comes to educational attainment. Women now have higher mean years of education and a higher percentage of college degrees than men and have enjoyed that advantage for many years. These advantages persist over all IQ levels.[5]
Educational attainment by ethnicity. In terms of the raw numbers, Asians have higher educational attainment than any other ethnic group. Blacks and Latinos have substantially lower educational attainment than whites, but these discrepancies are more than eliminated after adjusting for IQ.[6] Blacks have more mean years of education and higher proportions of college degrees than whites at comparable IQ levels. After taking IQ into account, Latino and white levels of educational attainment are similar. Asians retain their advantage over whites after adjusting for IQ.[7]
Earned income by sex. A substantial female disadvantage in earned income exists, but it is almost entirely explained by marriage or children in the household. Using Current Population Survey data for 2018, earnings for women who were not married, had no children living at home, and worked full-time were 93 percent of the earnings of comparable men.[8] Married women with children in the house have considerably lower earned income even after adjusting for IQ, but the main source of the income discrepancy is not that married women in the labor force earn less than unmarried women, but that married men earn more than unmarried men.[9]
Earned income by ethnicity. Using raw 2018 data from the CPS, Asians have higher mean earned income than whites, while Blacks and Latinos have substantially lower mean earned income than whites.[10] Once again, adjusting for IQ changes that picture dramatically. In the earlier survey, adjusting for IQ wipes out the ethnic income differential among whites, blacks, and Latinos (Asians were not included in this survey). In the latter survey, whites and Latinos have effectively the same earned income while the fitted mean for blacks is 84 percent of the fitted mean for whites. The fitted mean for Asians is 57 percent higher than the fitted mean for whites.
* The establishment of the truth—for truth it seems to be—that the childhood family environment explains little about the cognitive repertoires of the adult is one of the more important achievements of the social sciences in the last four decades.
* Proposition #8 says that even though you may think that your parenting style and your family’s resources make a big difference in how your children turn out as human beings, using a straightforward model for identifying that effect fails to turn up evidence for it. Second, parents can make a negative difference at the extremes. Really awful parenting, involving severe deprivation and abuse, can damage children permanently.
* Can parents drive children to distraction? No doubt about it; just as children routinely drive parents to distraction. But when it comes to severe mental disorders, the parents’ genes are important while their parenting, by and large, is not.
* After about age 14, there is no evidence from twin and adoption studies that their shared environment as children had anything to do with their IQ scores.
* No matter whether researchers use the Big Five or one of the other personality models, the answer to the question “How much effect does the shared environment have on the way that human personalities develop?” is the same: Effectively none.
* The bulk of the variance in success in life is unexplained by either nature or nurture. Researchers are lucky if they explain half of the variance in educational attainment with measures of abilities and socioeconomic background. They’re lucky if they can explain even a quarter of the variance in earned income with such measures. The takeaway for thinking about our futures as individuals is that we do not live in a deterministic world ruled by either genes or social background, let alone by race or gender.
* IQ tests are not biased against minorities.4 Education does raise IQ, but within a narrow range (you can’t become a genius by staying in school long enough).5 IQ scores are usually stable, though not perfectly so, after around age six, when the first reliable measures become available, until decline in old age.[6] IQ meets higher standards of reliability and validity in measuring the construct it is intended to measure than any psychological measure of personality or temperament.
* Convincing evidence on the longer-term impacts of scaled-up pre-K programs on academic outcomes and school progress is sparse, precluding broad conclusions. The evidence that does exist often shows that pre-K-induced improvements in learning are detectable during elementary school, but studies also reveal null or negative longer-term impacts for some programs.
* Parents really do treat their children differently and siblings really do respond differently to the same events (divorce, for example); and siblings really do have different peer groups that seem to have great influence on their lives.
* No one claims that the DNA code is modified by environmental events. All the scientific claims involving epigenetics, correct and incorrect, are about changes in gene expression, not changes in DNA.
* Epigenetics properly understood is a vibrant field with findings that have important medical implications. But as far as I can tell, no serious epigeneticist is prepared to defend the notion that we are on the verge of learning how to turn genes on and off and thereby alter behavioral traits in disadvantaged children (or anyone else).
* The gloomy prospect for systematically affecting the nonshared environment seems vindicated. Nothing in the pipeline shows promise of overturning the negative results to date. Epigenetics as portrayed in the media has no relevance to Proposition #10 for the foreseeable future. The widespread popular belief that environmental pressures routinely and permanently alter gene expression in humans, that those alterations are reversible, and that their effects are passed down through generations is wrong. Proposition #10 will eventually be wrong. On the bright side, we can look at recent developments and see reasons that Proposition #10 cannot be true forever. The obvious example is the positive and even life-changing effects that pharmaceuticals developed during the last few decades have had on some forms of depression and other mental disorders.
* Plomin sees polygenic scores as a game changer for three reasons: Predictions from polygenic scores to psychological traits are causal in just one direction (the trait cannot be a cause of the score). Polygenic scores can predict from birth. Polygenic scores can predict differences between family members, something that twin studies cannot do.
* Polygenic scores will be able to identify the genetic risk that an individual faces for a given disorder before the problem has developed. Psychologists will no longer be confined to observing symptoms and diagnosing problems after they manifest themselves.
* Clinical psychology will move away from diagnoses and toward dimensions. One of the revelations of recent research is that polygenic scores are normally distributed, thereby demonstrating that genetic risk for psychological problems is continuous. There is no gene that moves a person from normal to psychologically disordered.
* Polygenic scores will enable clinical psychology to create more precise treatments. They will be especially useful for choosing the right drugs and dosages based on genetic evidence—and, as importantly, avoiding the expense and side effects of trying wrong drugs and dosages.
* Clinical psychology’s focus will shift from treatment toward prevention. Clinical psychologists have no effective broad-based, large-scale prevention strategies. But when we know from polygenic scores that an individual is at risk, we can design, test, and eventually identify effective prevention strategies for individuals.
* Asians of equivalent 120 IQ earn 54% more than whites because the practical minded Asians tend to major in higher paid fields like Computer Science, Finance, Engineering, Medicine or Law, while whites tend to follow their interests. It’s why most innovations came from whites, because they only major in tech/medicine if they are truly interested in it, whereas Asians only major in those fields for the money, not real interest.
* The difference is the East Asians’ risk-aversion and preference for the safe and well-defined career paths as opposed to whites’ greater interest in free-form experimentation, creativity, and well-roundedness.
* I always figured both would rely on Herrnstein‘s Jewish credentials to deflect charges of racism and successfully counterattack it as anti-semitism. But he unfortunately passed away leaving Murray exposed to the elements. So he went into a maelstrom without any kind of shielding.
* What I think though is, that a 77 – year-old man, willing to confront the stress and hassles and hatred that will undoubtedly come towards him with the publication of this new book – with the word RACE on the cover, is something which – I admire – and am grateful for. So: What Charles Murray does is way above average, as far as courage is concerned.
* Being more concerned with acquiring capital and thus being more motivated to make money in and of itself. How many Asian kids are pushed into professions they wouldn’t have gone into if their parents weren’t FoB immigrants? Once those kinds of families have a base of capital, the imperative to get more is diminished. We see this with American Jews.
By contrast smart white and black kids don’t tend to come from recent immigrant backgrounds with all the striving and status-seeking behaviour that often goes along with that.
Another question is what impact a larger extended family and sense of optimism imbued by parents who have a non-native perspective on material status has on status-seeking.
* The issue that is never addressed is the underachievement of whites in the US.
When I first came to live in the US, I had spent several years working in Bermuda, which is 70% “black” and about 30% white and Azorean Portuguese.
This was the first time in my life I had lived with a black majority population, or indeed lived closely with black people at all.
In Bermuda it was very rare to find whites who were what the US would call “white trash”. Nearly all whites were business owners, landlords, bankers, lawyers, accountants, doctors, dentists, pharmacists, and so on and they ran the supermarkets, pharmacies, car and boat dealerships, banks, restaurants,and newspapers.
When I came to live in the US the greatest surprise to me was that there were so many whites whose families had crossed the Atlantic long ago who still were not established, did not own land or homes, who had not been to college, and who had low paid jobs.
Who were these mysterious boat people who had come from Europe generations ago to seek prosperity, but were still clinging on by the skin of their teeth in America?
Within about 3 years of arrival in the US with a suitcase and a carry on and a few paychecks in the bank, I had economically surpassed half the population already. (The first year was spent in obtaining validation of credentials, doing prerequisites, and so on.)
However if you go back to Europe, it is soon apparent that even within Europe there were several different populations. The English landed aristocracy, in many cases, still had Norman, Saxon, or Nordic characteristics, were tall, long headed, and educable, whereas the numerical majority of the British population who formed “the mob” in times when mob rule ruled where hybrid whites who were shorter, more round headed, and less educable and possibly of Celtic or indigenous stock.
After the US became independent the upper classes in the UK launched a massive deportation program or pogrom against the lower or “criminal” classes and deported huge numbers to Australia with the intention of eradicating crime in the UK. Obviously, in retrospect, this did not work, which led to the building of the huge red brick Victorian prisons and then mental hospitals that still exist around the island.
So probably it is not only blacks that have inherited limited IQ capacity, but also a significant section of the white population that is less obviously visible. When I worked in prisons, the majority of prisoners were black or Latin, but the white prisoners nearly all seemed to come from this white underclass whose families had never become established in America.
* My wife had dinner last night with the wife of one of the guys on the admissions committee at U Wisconsin med school. The woman said it is much harder now for an American to get into med school than at any time in the past. She said her husband gets tons of applications, all from extremely good students, but only a few can get into med school.
I was pushed out of the sciences, after getting a Ph.D. because of massive immigration from China. So I learned to code. I was almost pushed out of coding by Indian H1-B (I even lost a job so the company could hire an H1-B). Medicine — from doctors to nurses down to MA and CNA, are being taken over by mostly Asian immigrants now.
I guess I am supposed to shut up and take my meth or opiods and rack up credit card bills until I die to keep the ultra rich happy.
* For every lower class black, there is a lower class white who is not richer or better behaved or smarter. The number of whites with below 85 IQ is almost 1 for 1 equal to the number of blacks with IQ<85. It's just that the blacks are a "visible minority" and the whites aren't (although if you look closely, they usually are) and the white lower class is mixed in among a much larger white middle and upper class while the black lower class forms a much larger % of blacks.My father was also shocked by the poverty and lack of upward mobility of the white lower classes, who in his view possessed many advantages that he lacked, not only the ability to read and write English but often considerable mechanical or trade skills, and yet within a few years he had a considerably greater net worth than they did.Part of this is down to money management skills and immigrant thrift. In order to save a down payment for a farm (which was a home and a business as well as a considerable chunk of real estate) we lived in a deteriorated NY tenement (railroad flat, bathtub in the kitchen) long after most white people had fled the neighborhood and he saved the majority of each paycheck. No car, no vacation, no eating out, no Christmas presents, no debt. Most lower class Americans have zero net worth – every paycheck is spoken for even before it arrives, just to make the payments on various forms of debt and are not willing to delay gratification in this way.The second aspect of this was his avoidance of alcohol (and in the modern context, drugs). Substance abuse is the bane of the lower classes.MORE COMMENTS:
* Extreme heat can help divide people while extreme cold might help bring people together (both socially and physically.) If there was a real “hot head” in the Scottish Hinterlands, he might get kicked out of the settlement and freeze to death. While another hot head from another tribe who gets kicked out can just attack another tribe easily. Colder areas require more long term planning (or used to) in terms of growing/storing enough food for the winter.
Africa heat encouraged bigger and meaner muscle growth while Northern European chills encouraged higher IQ and social development.
* There are two problems with Kevin’s reasoning.
1. He assumes an African mean IQ of 72.8. This is a low-end estimate. In their review of the literature, Wicherts et al. (2010) argue for a mean of 82, whereas Lynn (2010) puts it at 66. Rindermann (2013) favors a “best guess” of 75. There is some fudging in all of these estimates, since no one really knows how much adjustment should be made for the Flynn Effect. These are societies that are still becoming familiar not only with test taking but also with the entire paradigm of giving standardized answers to standardized questions.
2. Polygenic scores are still a rough measure. When Davide Piffer used the polygenic score to estimate African genotypic IQ, he came up with an estimate of 90.54
https://www.openpsych.net/forum/showthread.php?tid=27
It looks like polygynic scores inflate African IQ, perhaps because of differences in genetic architecture. Or perhaps mean African genotypic IQ really is around 90.
References
Lynn, R. (2010). The average IQ of sub-Saharan Africans assessed by the Progressive Matrices: A reply to Wicherts, Dolan, Carlson & van der Maas, Learning and Individual Differences, 20, 152-154.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1041608010000348
Rindermann, H. (2013). African cognitive ability: Research, results, divergences and recommendations, Personality and Individual Differences, 55, 229-233.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886912003741
Wicherts, J.M., C.V. Dolan, and H.L.J. van der Maas. (2010). A systematic literature review of the average IQ of sub-Saharan Africans, Intelligence, 38, 1-20.
http://mathsci.free.fr/survey.pdf
* I asked some of the people he’s replying to if I should say anything. Because Kevin does not have an argument, his paper is filled with statistical errors and fallacies and bad maths in general, I was asked to just let it slide into publication so that it can be responded to there. What happens when Kevin is criticised normally is that he moves goalposts or outright lies in protection of his ideology, so I agree that it isn’t fruitful to try to talk to him outside of publications.
* There is no problem with the cold-weather hypothesis, it is certainly correct.
As with most issues, it is possible to have multiple factors in play.
–> Cold weather indeed requires more planning hence more conscientiousness, lower time preference, higher IQ.
–> Civilization–trade, money, written language, bureaucracy, returns to literacy, more variety of products, etc. etc.–means more complexity, and brings in literacy/numeracy and leads to higher IQ.
Both are clearly factors. Not the least bit complicated to understand.
And civilization requires successful agriculture that
a) creates a surplus and
b) supports a decent population density
allowing “rulers” to take over a territory and create “civilization” at scale. This generally first occurred in places that were warm, but not insanely hot. As human capabilities improved, more of it took place at higher–but still temperate–latitudes.
You can quibble about it, but this more or less matches the pattern we see.
— The smartest hunter gathers are the Eskimos.
— But settled agricultural people at any given latitude are generally smarter. (At least in the sort of logical intelligence we can measure.)
— Among civilizations, the ones with scale in the upper temperate zone–England, France, Germany, Japan–have outshone the orginal, more tropical river valley–Tigris/Euphrates, Nile–civilizations. Likely tapping into higher conscientiousness and intelligence in the population from managing farming/fishing with winter.
— People are smarter in the cities–where people succeed by engaging in “civilization”–manufacture, trade, bureaucracy–than off in the hills.
Posted in Charles Murray
Comments Off on Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class By Charles Murray
