* Part of the frustration over Hillary Clinton not having been coronated already is that women would vastly rather not go through a drag down knock out affair to assume power. Why should they? Right now they do a pretty good job getting others to wield power for them. The women’s movement could literally expend their entire political capitol to elect her and for what? Equality? That is the last thing they want. It would be vastly better for the feminists if she could just ascend up onto a pedestal and radiate her glory but instead she has to muck around like the whoring lawyer that she is.
* Trump has garnered more Republican voters than anyone else in the history of time, while Clinton has fewer voters now than she had in 2008. Furthermore, I’m not even sure Clinton will be her party’s nominee. She’s losing state after state and the email scandal has yet to be fully resolved. Look for a resurgence of the ‘Draft Biden” movement once it becomes apparent that Hillary could actually lose to Donald Trump.
Also, the news media are about to pivot in favor of Trump, beginning with Megyn Kelly’s exclusive interview. They all want to ride the Trump Train.
Those head-to-head national polls mean absolutely butt-crack nothing now, since they were all taken at a time when the Republican field was still open and thus a free playground for fantasy and projection. Now we have a nominee and we have a race. We have a national spotlight that is about to shine very brightly on the candidates and their doings. Trump will rise in the polls and destroy Hillary handily, if she even runs.
* My gut feeling is that Trump cannot win. Any recent immigrant won’t vote for him. Most women will vote for Hillary. And so on.
And yet: I know a guy who invited me to go have lunch on Inauguration Day, 2009. I backed off, I was busy at work. But 30 minutes later, I swung by to see what was up, and he was standing at the bar watching Obama’s swearing in, and there were tears streaming down his face.
Today, he is a fervent supporter of Donald Trump, and believes he can win.
So, miracles do happen. Hey, are we gonna do a Cinco de Mayo thing here, or what?
* The people who are so confidently predicting a Trump loss in November are largely the same people who assured us that Trump was a joke, that he’d fade away before the end of 2015, and that surely he’s gone too far this time and the voters will punish him.
* Also, its best to examine state by state polls to see where Trump is up and where he needs more work to do. Guessing that since the gun control issue is now part of Hillary’s campaign that Trump just solidified the entire South behind him (and also TX; OK; KS), so we are talking about 150-180 electoral votes.
Assume for a moment that Trump can match Romney’s 206 electoral votes. What he then needs is:
FL = (29), which brings the total to 235
PA = (20), which brings the total to 255
MI = (16), which brings the total to 271, which means he wins.
Can he win these three states? If I were part of the campaign, that’s the advice I’d give. Blitz those three states with wall to wall coverage of ads, media, etc. with major emphasis on local and counties within each of these states. Reading over the state by state primaries I’m encouraged that Trump over performed in both PA and FL, so this is doable. MI could just be the key. All three states have a sizable share of blue collar voters as well.
What was encouraging is that Trump won all three primaries so there seems to be a base of support. Neither three are particularly over the top Evangelical, so that won’t count vs him. PA does have a lot of gun owners (hunters) so this is doable. And its fortunate that Trump hasn’t gaffed himself in the mouth by going vs the auto bailout or anything stupid along those lines the way that Mitt did.
Also, if UT does flip cause they’re all in a hissy fit, Trump could conceivably trade UT for NV (another state where he over performed). But for the GE, he has to focus on FL; PA; and MI and he has a very good chance in GE. Whatever it takes, he has to blitz those three states with media.
On side note, in parts of PA, there were Trump and Cruz signs. There were also more Bernie signs than Hillary signs. She’s not popular with a lot of white folks. Just saying.
“Whatever it takes”—Chuck Noll
* Hillary has just officially announced that her two signature issues for the GE are Gun Control and Immigration Reform. Basically the two issues that are ivory tower wonk based, whereas Trump has offered immigration as in: build a wall, and enforce existing laws vs illegal aliens as well as get a handle on unfair trade agreements, like NAFTA, which her husband signed
into law.
Hillary’s nomination confirms every stereotype conservatives have said about the liberal Democrats that control their party for yrs, namely, they don’t give a damn for the white working class and havent since the ’70′s. All they care about are the gays, environment, gun control, etc. which, except for the 2nd Amendment issue, doesn’t register with ordinary voters.
FACT: It has been noted repeatedly in the MSM that Trump has brought millions of new voters into the primaries to vote for him, to cross over and vote or ones who haven’t voted in decades. Hillary has none of that. There’s no cross over appeal for her, and millions of GOP voters aren’t suddenly gonna switch and vote for her in November.
If anyone is doing the “Guns, gays, etc” stuff this time round it’s Hillary. Trump’s offering concrete issues that voters care about. Even the issue of Immigration, WHO has made that his signature issue for over the last yr? Not Hillary. WHO has been driving the election for nearly a year? It certainly hasn’t been Jeb!
* The nomination process will have asymmetrical effects on both party’s candidates, benefitting Trump more than Clinton. There is more up-side for Trump and more down-side for Clinton in the campaign for Presidency.
Clinton is already a “made guy” in political terms. So she will not gain much political capital from accepting what is, in any case, a political inheritance from her husband. But she will lose political capital as voters tire of her flat political style and somewhat tainted record.
Trump, by contrast has a lot of political capital to gain from the nomination process. He is s political novice who has emerged from the ruck to win the top prize. The imprimatur of the party will confer democratic legitimacy on his candidacy. Also, Trump had already endured an orgy of mud-slinging and shrugged it off. People are still interested in what he has to say, going by his ratings.
So yeah, there is still some mileage in this horse race. And time for Trumps luck to let him take the pot.
Although I’ve got $100 on Hilary at 2.5 as I think the US has passed the tipping point of political demography.
* Negative partisanship will keep it fairly close, even if Trump runs a totally disastrous general election campaign.
The Clintons drive Republicans hysterically insane. Many Republicans aren’t too keen on Trump, but the thought of Hillary as president will bring them to the polls no matter what.
But I think Trump will actually run an effective general election campaign. Trump has abandoned a lot of the toxic positioning that usually kills Republicans among working class whites in the Midwest. He needs to pivot further to the center now that he’s won the primary and appeal to those voters. If he can flip Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, he’ll win.
* Van Halen members’ likelihood of voting for Trump:
Sammy Hagar: 90%
Alex Van Halen: 75%
David Lee Roth: 70%
Eddie Van Halen: 60%
