* Cruz benefited from the fact that 3 of the 4 contests today were closed caucuses. Closed elections benefit Cruz, since only registered Republicans can vote, and Trump relies heavily on Independents. Further, caucuses are shorter in duration – being only a few hours long – and produce much lower turnout than primaries. Caucus voters tend to be party die-hards who vote in every election cycle, which not surprisingly tend towards Cruz. While winning a caucus can provide momentum for a candidate, Caucuses aren’t very predictive in indicating how future primaries will turnout. Almost all of the remaining contests are primaries.
I keep seeing on Twitter that Trump “drastically under-performed” polls. Yet this seems to only be true in Kansas. Coincidentally, it was true in Iowa and Oklahoma too. In Kentucky, he matched his 35% polling number. In Maine, there were no polls. In Louisiana, he is also matching his polling average of the low 40s.
Overall, I’d chalk today more up to the anomalous results that caucuses tend to produce rather than any campaign shifting cause. If Trump significantly under-performs in Michigan and Mississippi (both Open Primaries), then he’s got a problem.
* Ha, this post reeks of Cruz.
It’s some weird autistic approach to politics.
“You don’t like me? Let me debate and browbeat and nitpick and quibble and wonk you until you realize you love me.”
Yeah, he’d get obliterated in the general.
* The neocons are starting to tiptoe towards Cruz now that they realize what a horrible joke Rubio is. If Marco gets stomped in Florida then Ted becomes their only hope.
* Former Raiders QB Kyle Boller is married to former Miss California, Carrie Prejean (I believe with children).
Carrie Prejean was the victim of an ACTUAL hate crime at the hands of homosexual celebrity stalking gossip Perez Hilton. She was viciously attacked by Mr “Hilton” because she accidentally answered a question regarding natural marriage in the way that was appropriate for only two or three thousand years.
This occurred during a Trump sponsored Miss America (?)/contest. Trump gallantly came to her defense, until he didn’t.
Trump caved to the LGBTQ “community” instantly.
* Trump’s press conference comments about SCOTUS were point blank. Paraphrase: don’t elect me and get Cruz, who can’t win the general; imagine Hillary having 3 to 5 SCOTUS picks. Sleep on that one. To get the true Trump you can’t watch these lame debates. His pressers, interviews, and portions of his rallies are excellent.
* And, while Trump doesn’t have any kind words for Obama, he doesn’t make him out to be particularly malevolent the way Cruz and Rubio do. He makes him to be just another moron politician, with his only real focus being Hillary or Bill. I mention this because I believe Trump can win at least 15-20% of the black vote, particularly in the North East, which would shatter the blue electoral wall. Whether you think Obama was a particularly evil president or not, all black voters will be repelled to HRC if you scream that he’s purposefully trying to destroy the country. But a candidate as thoroughly urban as Trump, who appeals to black voters on trade and immigration, can definitely win over a significant chunk of black voters if his criticisms of Obama are framed as systemic failure, with a president that was in over his head, as opposed to a nefarious actor.
* Trump is not a master debater, Cruz is. But how important is academic debate skill to the job of being president? I’m going to guess about zero. Negotiation is a far more important skill to have, perhaps the most important skill, for what is essentially an executive position, i.e. POTUS.
I’m sure there are good historical reasons for why we have debates, but when you reflect on it for a moment, it’s a bit ridiculous.
This is especially true when you look at the gotcha game that modern “debates” have devolved into. The whole goal is to undermine voter confidence in candidates that the establishment disapproves of, and sadly, it works, at least to a certain extent. I know Trump supporters who were genuinely crestfallen from Trump’s debate performance, which was exactly Fox’s goal.
* Trump does fine with the majority of Evangelicals who are not Christian Zionists/Dispensationalists or who are not Anti-Abortion obsessives.
Texas. Kansas and Louisiana along with South Carolina are the hot beds of the Christian Zionist movement.
Christian Zionism got its start in Kansas and today’s the biggest Christian Zionist televangelist, Pastor John Hagee is based out of Texas
Beck may be a Mormon, but he is also positively “Bat Guano” for Israel.
Christian Zionism used to be a cheap road to the Republican nomination but is positively a deadly boat anchor in the national general election as Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran McCain found out in 2008.
* It is very hard to find a true intellectual who is also socially conservative who is not Catholic. Most Protestant intellectuals are very liberal. And almost no Evangelical are intellectuals (certainly not Ted, who, btw, checked a minority box on his application to Princeton and HLS). Scalia was Catholic. Thomas as well. Same with Alito, Roberts, and Kennedy. My guess is Cruz has a fellow misfit Evangelical in mind, but certainly not a Catholic. Cruz’s father has said anti-Catholic stuff and I’m guessing Ted holds similar views. Cruz will not be the GOP nominee, but if he is, Hillary will have 3 Supreme Court picks. It’s going to really suck to be a white male.
