Comments to Steve Sailer on Saturday’s elections:
* Traditional Republicans are uptight WASPs and Protestants who are mainly in the Midwest and West now and don’t find Trump, especially his style and demeanor, as appealing as Republicans in the South and Northeast do. Republicans in the South and Northeast today aren’t traditionally Republican. They’re traditionally Democratic and became Republican following the 60s and 70s. Trump does better with the latter Republicans and with Independents and disaffected nominal Democrats.
* Cruz over performs in low turnout caucuses. Trump is strong in the south, east, and rust belt, and probably the far west. This race is now down to Cruz vs Trump. Rubio and John have no chance after next Tuesday.
* USA Today Feb. 18, 2016: Cruz draws from married voters, evangelical Christians, the elderly and those who identify as “very conservative.” These folks might be angry about the political process, but their anger is ideological and their lives — filled with family and church — are fundamentally intact.
Trump’s voters, instead, wear an almost existential sense of betrayal. He relies on unmarried voters, individuals who rarely attend church services and those without much higher education. Many of these Trump voters have abandoned the faith of their forefathers and myriad social benefits that come with it. Their marriages have failed, and their families have fractured. The factories that moved overseas used to provide not just high-paying jobs, but also a sense of purpose and community. Their kids (and themselves) might be more likely to die from a heroin overdose than any other group in the country.
Cruz’s voters dislike Jeb Bush because he has strayed from conservative orthodoxy. Trump’s voters loathe Jeb Bush because their lives are falling apart, and they blame people like him.
* More-marginal Trump voters* who don’t have their lives together are less likely to have bothered to have gotten registered with a party, and are less likely to go to the trouble of caucusing. Think of them as the Republican party’s version of the Democrats’ poor Hispanic voters.
* It must be difficult to run against not only your opponents, but the entire media, entertainment, business, government, and academic establishments.
* If Trump loses the nomination he has only himself to blame. I fault him for two things.
He should have started behaving more like a president immediately after New Hampshire. Recent debates where he continues to call names and yell “Liar!” are raising real concerns about his self-control.
He needed to bone up on the issues, which some of thought he was going to do and it appears he did not. He doesn’t seem to fully understand his own position on immigration, for example. If a dummy like Rubio can memorize a bunch of facts and figures, Trump should be able to too. He’s still winging it.
* I don’t think the last debate helped Trump. I support Trump and enjoy watching his antics, but even I kind of grew tired of his obnoxiousness in the debate. In the earlier debates, there were more people debating so there were longer pauses in between Trump’s antics. But in the last one, it was relentless. It was embarrassing to watch and almost at Idiocracy levels. Also the last debate largely consisted of Cruz and Rubio constantly attacking Trump with things like Trump University, which doesn’t help.
* I love the armchair arbiters of decorum, with their criticism of Trump’s behavior as not being dignified enough. Few, if any men– especially alpha male ones– could withstand the dishonest attacks that Trump is receiving 24/7. One day of the attacks Trump is receiving and even Fred Rogers would be dropping f-bombs and throwing punches.
* Are you talking about the killing terrorists’ kin part? Because I agree with his idea for three reasons:
1. Knowing one’s kin are fair game would cause at least some would-be terrorists to think twice before terrorizing.
2. It would give kin incentive to stop terrorist kin at any cost. If I knew my brother’s crimes could get me killed I might kill my brother if he insisted on doing said crimes.
3. Kills lice while still nits. Cold af but war is hell. Dead kids don’t grow up to be terrorists.
* Relax. Trump’s pulling away in KY, will almost certainly romp in LA, a real primary. Looks solid in MI and MS on Tuesday. Massive early voting in OH and FL helps, in that Cruz already way behind in both and can’t easily catch up even with a surge.
Trump had a bad debate, needs to get some rest. He’s been going full bore almost 24/7 for the last two months facing off incoming from the entire GOP and media establishment. In retrospect, yes, he should have cancelled a rally or two — apparently he flew into the Thursday debate from Maine with no down time — and boned up on the issues. But he hasn’t had the time. This will all slow down after 3/15, and then he will have time to start listening to Sessions and Miller. I’m not giving up hope.
* Keep in mind the Kansas republican caucus picked Huckabee in 2008 with 59 percent of the vote. They picked Santorum in 2012 with 51 percent of their vote.
So Kansas is not exactly known for picking the eventual winner.
* Kentucky is meth country, so Trump should do well there and get the turnout he needs. And Louisiana is Duke territory, so Trump should also do well there.
* “I predict Trump will only win in Kentucky and Louisiana. ”
Why would he have been expected to win the caucuses? Those are Cruz voters. Anytime you have to publicly come in and support a candidate, the results are going to be skewed.
If Trump doesn’t win KY & LA, then be concerned. Otherwise, this is expected.
* Trump is a smart alpha male who leads from his gut. He goes in and out-alphas the opposition, and leaves his genius detail guys to mop up after his victory.
Trump can’t out-wonk Ted Cruz, but he can win the GOP debates as an alpha. Trump’s apparent flip-flopping is infuriating to us, but he’s out of his element in wonkville. That’s where Cruz can win.
Trump needs to convince voters that, yes he might mistakes on policy details because that’s not who he is, but detail-oriented voters can trust him because of his advisers.
* I hope Trump’s recent fumbling can just be put down to tiredness, he obviously needs a rest. He could have avoided the recent Fox debate through the same Megyn Kelly reason he employed before. He needs to stay the course. The only reason he is where he is, is because there are a lot of people who are fed up with political correctness and immigration (legal and illegal). Trump is a conduit for that frustration and if he thinks that he can turn off that spigot in order to entice the other side, all he will succeed in doing is causing his base to stay home. Dyed in the wool liberals already don’t trust him, he is not going to win them over.
The path to victory is to ride the wave of righteous anger, and embrace the Sailer Strategy right through to the end. Throw away the textbook that says pander to the base during the primaries and then betray the base during the general. If you get the white vote through tackling employment and standard of living concerns, you will pick up enough non-white votes simply because most everyone who votes in the USA has standard of living concerns that are impacted by immigration, even if it means that your other relatives may have to wait (permanently perhaps) to chain migrate.
* The alt-right is why Trump has gotten to where he is so far towards nomination. Even the NYT comments section tilts alt-right now. It’s not because our opinions aren’t popular. They are both popular and very strongly held. The anti-immigrationist right is coming to prominence all across the Eurosphere.
* It is remarkable that Cuban-Americans are only 0.1% of the American population, and yet there are not one but two Cuban-Americans vouching to become U.S president. That is remarkable. How formidable are Cuban-Americans? And how driven to power are they?
* Or maybe Trump needs to show he can build an organization to win where organizations are needed?
