Steve Sailer: What Are the Most Useful Data Points to Memorize?


* The black crime rate is over 6 times greater than the average American rate.

The black on white crime is 55 times greater than the white on black crime rate.

The black on white murder is only 13 to 17 times greater than the white on black rate.

* Not so much a number to keep in mind, but a pair of shapes: The bell curve, and an S curve of exponential growth/diminishing returns.
Those two shapes are so important to understanding so many of the problems of the modern world.

* If only our innumerate society could somehow learn to think about adverse social trends in numeric terms, such as: the ratio of yearly third world immigrants (1-2 million) to newborns (about 4 million) portends a country gradually becoming a stranger to itself. Sadly, we will never embrace this mode of thinking (a hallmark of this blog). Instead, we just continue to feed our crops Gatorade because, “it’s what plants crave.

* Roughly speaking:
Land area of US = area of Canada = area of Europe [with Brazil a little behind these three]
area of US*3 = area of Africa
area of Brazil*2 = area of Russia = area of South America

* I think it’s useful to think about hypocrisy in percentage terms. As in, how often does a person fail to live up to their stated principles?

The left has gotten lots of mileage out of calling Christian conservatives hypocrits, especially in regard to sexual morality.

Lets suppose a Christian man tries to be faithful to his wife, but fails due to weakness of will on one or two occasions. Let’s say he lives up to his ideals 99.9% of the time. You might say he is 0.1% hypocrite.

Compare that to a leftist who claims to love diversity, yet spends their life avoiding it, living in the most white community they can find, sending their kids to a white private school, and so on. They will almost never live up to their ideals, except maybe for symbolic occasions or photo ops. This makes them 99% hypocrites.

I think it is useful to understand the difference between 1% hypocrisy, driven by weakness of will, and 99% hypocrisy driven by genuine dishonesty or lack of self awareness. A sense of proportion here matters.

And I think the hypocrisy that conservatives are accused of, especially with sexual morality, is of the 1% sort. But the kind liberals engage in, especially regarding diversity, is of the 99% sort.

* Hauser’s Law says that Federal tax revenues fluctuate closely around 19% of GDP, no matter how the marginal tax rates are changed.

If you raise tax rates, Federal tax revenues will be close to 19% of GDP.

If you lower tax rates, Federal tax revenues will be close to 19% of GDP.

* A country can be conquered 100% at a time, this is traditional warfare.

But a country can also be conquered 1% at a time, and this is what immigration does. Those 1%s add up over time, they add up to dispossession.

Even just in terms of voting, when you let in 10% more voters, it means the voting power of the native population has been diluted by 10%.

If you have a two party system, it is even worse. You can also think in terms of a seesaw, if you have 47 pounds on one side, and 53 pounds on the other, the addition of 10 pounds to the lighter side can tilt the beam.

* It’s important to remember that 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men carried the 2R allele for the MAO-A gene. A 2 R allele makes the carrier not only more violent, but more susceptible to becoming antisocial if raised in a toxic environment involving physical abuse.

This number is important to have in mind when estimating the percentage of violent criminals within, and the proportion between groups.

* One study concluded that black men with the 2R variant have an estimated lifetime risk of shooting or stabbing someone of 50%, black men with a normal variant have a 7% risk.

Another study of black men showed the 5.5% of the who have the 2R variant are 3.85 times more likely to have been arrested and 3.05 times more likely to have ever been incarcerated.

A third study of teenagers and self-reported acts of violent and non-violence delinquency showed the 2R variant holders to have about twice the level of both types of delinquency.

* The number of digits of pi that a person remembers by heart could serve as a very rough measure of nerdiness. I remember it as 3.1415926535. If you typed the above from memory, you’re probably nerdier than I am.

* Dunbar’s number = approx. 150. The maximum number of strong social ties a person can sustain. Basis for tribal organization and the riposte to anyone claiming thousands of Facebook friends or Twitter followers.

* The 68–95–99.7 rule — One standard deviation from the mean of what’s being measured encompasses about 68% of the group in question, two standard deviations 95%, and three standard deviations 99.7%.

Roughly, a standard deviation is an ordinary difference, two standard deviations are a big difference, and three standard deviations are a really big difference.

* The value of a random American life is $10 million (that is the Value of a Statistical Life number calculated very expertly and publically by the USDOT).

That means it would have been worth $140 million to prevent the San Berdoo shooters from killing their victims, and (I suggest) it would have been worth at least another $110 million to prevent the additional 22 sublethal casualties they caused.

The average earnings of a working immigrant (note that the average is misleading because the distribution of immigrants’ earnings is bi- or tri-modal, with a few earning a lot, a lot earning a little, and some more earning close to nil) may be generously-estimated about $30,000/year. The average labor share of income is about 60%, so the average surplus per working immigrant should be $20,000. However, the average government subsidy to $30,000/year workers (above what they pay in taxes) is about $7,000. So the average surplus per immigrant worker is no more than $13,000/year. (Most of that surplus accrues to the employer, not other workers– even leaving aside the fact that the modal immigrant earns less and costs more in subsidies than the mean working immigrant.)

So it takes about 10,000 non-terrorist immigrants working for a whole year to generate enough surplus– for plutocrats, not actual terror victims– to equal the weregild owed by one terrorist immigrant (or first-generation child like Major Hassan). If we didn’t average immigrant Chinese scientists in with the Pakistani truck drivers, that number would be rather larger. If we added the costs of so-called anti-terrorist programs to the bill, the number of immigrants required to pay it would be very much larger. The budget of the Department of Homeland Security (which is just a fraction of the US Government spending attributed to terrorism) is $40 billion/year. Suppose that as little as 1/4 of it is spent on “anti-terror:” $10 billion/year. That would consume the total surplus of 400,000 average immigrant workers– except that the government does not collect that surplus– it just taxes the people who do at an average rate of about 20%. So in fact it takes roughly 2,000,000 average immigrant workers to pay for just the anti-terror portion of the Homeland Security budget. That is roughly all of the moslem immigrants in the US. In other words, under the most pro-immigration calculations I can offer with a straight face, assuming Pakistani truck drivers are every bit as valuable to the country as Chinese scientists, all the moslem immigrants in the USA are worth zero (or less; negative value) to the modal native American. (And we haven’t even discussed the cost of non-terrorist immigrant crime, the cost to everyone else of the immigrants’ children, the cost of native workers displaced into unemployment, etc.)

The average cost of American healthcare per hour worked in the US is about $12 (I learned that one from Peter Shaeffer and verified it from DHHS publications myself). That means people earning less than, say, $20/hour are flat-out incapable of paying for their own healthcare in America (even counting taxes paid by their employers on the surplus they generate). So every immigrant who commands wages less than that is a drain on the public purse even before we consider any other costs at all.

About 1/8 of America’s population is (what Americans call) black. Roughly 1/6 of America’s black population is smarter than the less-smart half of the white population– so it is a grievous error to assume every black American you meet is not smart. Sadly, though, about 5/6 of the black population is less smart than the more-smart half of the white population. Only a tiny fraction of the black population is as smart as the top 1/6 of the white (or east asian) population. Because of this, it is generally impossible to fill US school or job openings with the smartest applicants and end up with proportional (1/8) representation of black Americans. The more selective the school or job, the less likely racial balance will fall out of any performance-oriented selection process.

* More than 80% of lawsuits are accounted for by less than 4% of the population

* The most effective way to evaluate the quality of a neighborhood is to find out the percentage of children who reside in 2-parent family households (Sailer has also recommended counting the number of attractive females as an index of neighborhood quality).

* Demographic percentages (USA);

62 % White
13% Black
17% Latino
5% Asian
2% Jewish
2% Gay

* In any given year, around 60,000 recorded rapes are perpetrated by black men in white women in the USA. In an given year, ‘statistical zero’ rapes are perpetrated by white American men against black American women.

About Luke Ford

I've written five books (see My work has been noted in the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and 60 Minutes. I teach Alexander Technique in Beverly Hills (
This entry was posted in Blacks, Crime. Bookmark the permalink.