* In the late 1980s early 1990s NYC was often above 2000 homicides and those numbers are now in the 500/600 range.
The number of murders per year in NYC fell from 2,262 in 1990 to 333 in 2014.
And this was while the city’s population rose from 7.3 to 8.5 million.
Besides the things you mentioned there was serious demographic change. The share of births to black mothers in NYC fell from 32% in 1986 to 20% in 2013. The number of births to Puerto Rican mothers fell by more than half. The NAM population fell AND changed character – US Blacks were partly replaced by Caribbean and African Blacks, PRs were mostly replaced by Dominicans and Mexicans. Middle class whites were partly replaced with SWPLs, which affected the crime rate indirectly, by raising real estate prices.
A positive feedback loop was created – the fall in crime attracted more upscale people, which raised real estate prices, which drove more downscale people out of the city, which lowered crime even further.
As the above link shows, so far in 2015 the murder rate is up by 5.9% compared to last year.
* The new scourge on the streets of New York this Summer was synthetic cannabinoids called K2 or Spice. The drug really exploded, especially among the homeless population. I experienced the zombie crowd this Summer around the 125th and Lexington Subway stop. Deeply disturbing. Straight out of The Walking Dead.
I haven’t seen any naked dudes on the streets, but I have seen people in this state.
K2 is usually sold legally though bodegas by Yemeni immigrants. The packs sell for a dollar or two a pop which is the ideal price point for destitute. The active cannabinoid agents are often manufactured in China and then combined with spices in the US and sold as an “incense” type product. It’s an especially dirty drug and the long term implications of its toxicity on users is unknown.
It is often used as a pot substitute by people on parole or who are subject to a drug test. Because it is so cheap, it has really hit the homeless in New York City. Some users become addicted and repeated use can lead to PCP like episodes. I have seen a few of these people on the street and it isn’t pretty. I assumed it was PCP (not that I have ever seen anyone on PCP), but the insane, manic, sweaty delusional nature of users is straight out of an after school special.
It is an interesting experiment for the drug legalization debate. K2 appears to be terrible for the long term physical and mental health of the users, but because of its low price point and that fact that it is legally sold out of bodegas meant that so far at least, there is little gang crime associated with the drug. There is no money to be made on the street level, although I am sure that Triad organized crime or some other organized crime is involved in some way on the bulk level. A few weeks ago, the New York City Council banned the drug, but enforcement is difficult because the “chefs” continually rework the formula.
While there has been an astronomical explosion in hospital emergency room visits, overall it has not had a material impact on the crime rate for now.
* The city has taken a major hit in terms of tourism since the riots. I wish we could insert links into comments, because the occasional story is being written about this. One is titled “Hotel bookings down since April unrest.” Another one that buries the issue is headlined “Why the Camden Pub owner is selling: ‘I don’t want this for my kids.”
A few decades ago, my family moved to a Maryland suburb and regularly took trips to Baltimore’s Inner Harbor and went to restaurants in Little Italy. A few weeks ago I mentioned to my dad that he could get something he needed for his house at a Home Depot in Baltimore County (not the city, but the county) and he cut me off immediately saying “Are you kidding? I’m not going into Baltimore!”
That right there, I think, should tell you the effect all this has had.
* My theory would be that lower police response resulting in higher criminal confidence leads to more ‘committed’ shootings. Instead of “bang bang bang—run away,” it’s “bang bang bang, run down the wounded and anchor shot.” And similar reductions in low success drive-bys, replaced by higher success close contact shootings.
