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Hopes were high that Congress might enact long sought reforms to the nation’s immigration system. Surveys showed that the Hispanic vote had grown to 10% of the electorate in the 2012 election and Conservative pundits opined that the Republican party needed to embrace measures it had opposed for years in order not to alienate that growing constituency. Writing in Commentary, Jonathan Tobin said that continued opposition was both policy and would “haunt the GOP for years to come” because the electorate will view the party as intolerant.
The Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS) launched a “We Were Strangers, Too” backed by dozens of group including ADL, AJC, BBI, Hadassah, JCPA, Jewish Labor Committee, NCJW, along with the Conservative, Reform and Reconstructionist movements. They called for reform that would promote family reunification, create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, address migrant workers’ rights, provide support services to immigrants, and balance border protection/enforcment measures with economic development and individual rights. Twenty four Jewish groups sitting in the Jewish Social Justice Roundtable also campaigned for reform.
Steve Sailer writes June 3, 2013:
Ever since last November’s election, we’ve been hearing that Hispanics comprised a record 10 percent of the vote—which therefore obliges Republican Congressmen to pass “comprehensive immigration reform” a.k.a the Schumer-Rubio Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill RIGHT NOW.
For example:
National exit polls showed that 10 percent of the electorate was Hispanic, compared with 9 percent in 2008 and 8 percent in 2004. … A growing perception of hostility toward illegal immigrants by Republican candidates is driving many Latinos to the polls.
[Growing share of Hispanic voters helped push Obama to victory, By Donna St. George and Brady Dennis, Washington Post, November 7, 2012]
But what if these nice, round turnout numbers provided by the Edison exit poll company weren’t true? What if the “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” clamor is based on exit poll error?
What if in 2012 the Sleeping Giant of the Latino Vote didn’t actually awake—but instead rolled over and started a new siesta?
In short, what if the Main Stream Media exaggerated the Hispanic share of the 2012 vote by a factor of almost 20 percent?
Well, we now have the numbers. We now know that the suppositions behind these awkward questions are true.
After every national election, the Census Bureau conducts a massive survey of voter turnout. Then it bureaucratically mulls over the results for months—while the conventional wisdom congeals around whatever slapdash numbers the exit poll firm emitted in the early going.
In contrast to the Census Bureau survey, though, exit polls aren’t designed to measure turnout. Heck, exit polls aren’t even very good at figuring out who won the election—just ask President John F. Kerry.
Exit polls can’t be based on the random samples that would be needed to measure turnout accurately, because the exit poll company has to bake a forecast of the electorate’s demographics into its plan of which precincts to send workers to cover. Not surprisingly, it tends to get back the results it anticipated.
Moreover, Hispanics are both of interest to sponsors and difficult to survey (they can need Spanish-speaking pollsters). So their needs are typically given more weight in planning the exit poll. The result: national exit polls have overstated the Hispanic share of the vote at least since 2000.
Now, finally, on May 9, the Current Population Survey division of the Census Bureau has issued its turnout report, scintillatingly titledThe Diversifying Electorate—Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections)[PDF]
Despite the title, it makes compelling reading.
It turns out that the official best estimate of the Latino share of 2012 voters isn’t 10 percent—but merely 8.4 percent:
