Chaim Amalek writes: Does Russia want a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia? What would Iran’s pretext be? One thing is clear. Russia, Putin may well believe, NEEDS a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia to spike up oil prices. It needs this war because the Russian economy is mortally dependent upon energy prices (currently far too low for Russia’s purposes), as Russia makes nothing that any other nation wants (save weapons with which to fight wars). So whatever the reason for it, Putin may rationally determine that the best way to increase the value of Russian energy exports is to contrive a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and a closure of the Persian Gulf. The US military is much depleted after 8 years of Bush wars and 6 years of Obama defense cuts, so such a strategy might well be rational. Then, the Russians might use their wealth to build up their military to the point where it can overun Ukraine to Kiev, and impose a peace on whatever rump state it permits on what’s left. And then: A swift Russian takeover of the Baltic Republics and Belarus, thereby rebuilding the European part of the old Soviet Empire. All of this would be doable, because day by day, the West telegraphs its deep moral weakness to the rest of the world.
>>If Russia does all of that, what difference does it make to the US? Why not let them?
We are bound by treaty obligation – NATO – to defend any NATO signatory nation that is attacked. These Baltic Republics are members of NATO, so if attacked, we will, as a matter of U.S. law, be obligated to go to war to defend them against Russia. If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf will be shut off, plunging much of the rest of the world into depression and likely us along with it. Personally, I don’t think the Iranians are so stupid as to do any of Russia’s bidding by invading Saudi Arabia or any of the Gulf States. The Persians may hate us, but they also remember when the Russians occupied much of their country.
