“In 1980 white Democrats dominated white Republicans numerically,” Abrajano argues. “As immigration’s impact on America has grown, whites have fled to the Republican party in ever larger numbers. The end result is that the principal partisan choice of white America has been totally reversed.”
In essence, she argues, the prominence of immigrants and immigration issues as well as the two parties’ varying responses to those issues have made it increasingly likely that the white vote will continue to consolidate behind Republican candidates in the near to mid-term.
The past two elections suggest that Abrajano may be on to something. Not only did Romney hit a near-historic high in the white vote in 2012, but Republicans won the white vote in the 2010 midterms by 23 points — a massive margin considering that whites comprised 77 percent of the overall electorate.
The coming 2014 midterms will put Abrajano’s theory to the test again. Over the past two years, House Republicans have failed to act on a comprehensive immigration reform package passed by the Senate and, most recently, have engaged in an extended contretemps about how much money to allocate to the border crisis. The lines between the two parties have grown even starker on immigration. Under Abrajano’s hypothesis, this should drive the white vote even more heavily for Republicans in 2014 as the party is increasingly seen as the home for those concerned about immigration and its effects on society.
