Stephen Turner‘s (b. 1951) idea of convenient beliefs runs at full multipolar-strategic speed right now in the National Palace, the Foreign Ministry, the Pemex boardrooms, and the quiet back-channels with Washington, Beijing, and the rest of Latin America. The U.S.-Israeli campaign has entered its second month. Khamenei (1939-2026) is dead, the Iranian nuclear sites sit in craters, and oil trades in the volatile $90s after a brief spike to $110. These beliefs let President Claudia Sheinbaum (b. 1962), or her ideological heir, hold the country together, defend strategic autonomy, keep discounted Russian and Iranian crude flowing while Mexico exports its own, and cast Mexico as the rising, principled voice of Latin America. They do all of this without forcing anyone to admit that more chaos could spike inflation at home, strain the peso, or wear down public patience for the old anti-imperialist script.
Here are the ten most useful in circulation among Mexico’s leaders now.
The U.S.-Israeli campaign is Yankee imperialism, and it confirms that Mexico’s non-intervention and Latin American solidarity is the only adult position. Every strike reads as the hegemon’s aggression, which keeps the Mexico First, not Washington’s wars line intact.
The oil-price spike is a windfall. It lifts Pemex revenue, eases the fiscal deficit, and cushions the economy while Mexico finishes its energy transition on its own terms. The Finance Ministry treats higher prices as manna from heaven while the podium decries the instability Washington caused.
A weakened Iran strengthens the multipolar order. It removes a flashpoint and opens room for Mexican trade, diplomacy, and influence across Latin America. Iranian losses become evidence that the unipolar moment dies at last.
Mexico’s refusal to join the U.S.-led coalition shows real sovereignty. The campaign confirms that only countries with moral clarity and BRICS-plus solidarity can ride out the chaos without being pulled in. The belief casts Mexico as the indispensable leader of a progressive Latin America.
Domestic support for pragmatic left governance holds firm. The crisis abroad has unified the country behind Mexico First realism and quieted the right-wing warmongers. Any grumbling about inflation, fuel prices, or cartel violence gets filed as marginal noise from foreign agents or the old elite.
Chinese and Russian friendship and investment guarantee that Mexico cannot be isolated or pressured the way smaller, dependent states can. The war becomes evidence that the all-weather partnerships hold.
American dependence on Mexican trade, migration management, and near-shoring guarantees that Washington will never push too hard on human rights or the border. The belief explains why trade and investment keep flowing through the public friction.
The humanitarian fallout in Iran shows why Mexico, with its long experience managing inequality and regional crisis, stands as the natural moral and diplomatic leader of Latin America. Each new crisis turns into fresh grounds for South-South cooperation and international praise.
Strategic patience and masterful non-alignment will win out again. History shows Mexico gains when larger powers exhaust themselves in distant wars. The belief guards the diplomatic line against any internal voice arguing for a more hawkish or pro-U.S. posture.
Mexico’s blend of continental size, resource wealth, demographic vigor, and moral clarity will carry it out of this chapter stronger and more influential. The century belongs to the Global South and to those who reject Yankee hegemony. This one is the meta-belief. It lets the leadership sleep well, in the National Palace or on the flight to Beijing or Havana, sure that every added week of war is one more step toward Mexico’s long-promised role as the voice of progressive Latin America.
These are not conspiracy theories. They are survival tools for a governing class whose political life, economic model, and national self-image rest on never sounding panicked, never sounding dependent, never sounding too close to Washington. Iranian missiles keep the energy market twitchy and the war runs past its schedule, yet the beliefs hold the National Palace together, keep the statements defiant, and shield the brand from the right’s pro-Iran charge and the harder left’s not-radical-enough complaint. Question too many of them aloud and you become the minister or adviser tagged as out of step with Mexico’s sovereign destiny.
