Roman Catholicism is the most visible example of an institution that has not gone all-in on celebrating gay and trans identity.
To the extent there is any pushback to the valorization of gay and trans identity in America, it comes from traditional religion.
As America gets more gay friendly, it simultaneously becomes more hostile to the traditional religions that are hostile to gay identity.
The shooting of Catholic school kids was massively incentivized by our elites pushing same-sex marriage and stigmatizing any opposition to the celebration of various gay and trans identities.
* With the demise of the U.S. military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy in 2011, the country’s religious bodies became the last site of organized opposition to normalization in the United States.
* The seven large denominations that had normalized homosexuality by the end of 2016 are among the eight most highly educated in America.
* Religious liberty and LGBT rights were trapped in a “zero-sum game.” Any pretense to mutually beneficial compromise between the two was impossible, and state neutrality between them a charade. As long as religious conservatives hold same-sex sexual behavior to be morally suspect and LGBT persons and their allies hold it to be natural and moral, every
action and inaction of the state is a choice to recognize one side against the other. The history of RFRAs [religious freedom acts] and Supreme Court decisions since then have been so many battles in this larger and inescapable cultural and legal clash.* The status of religious freedom itself suffered a major blow in elite opinion. Consider that the phrase “so-called religious freedom” appeared in American newspapers more times in 2015 than in the previous twenty- two years since the passage of the federal RFRA combined. For the first time since the founding of the republic, the entire subject of religious freedom had shifted from the category “taken for granted” to that of “up for grabs.”
* While all forms of conservatism are rare on American college campuses, social conservatism is the rarest of all. As befits their class status, most liberal professors are rather moderate on matters of taxation and government spending. Their liberalism is highly concentrated on social issues. Thus economic conservatives and libertarians fare relatively well in the academy. Even in the very liberal social sciences they find a home in economics departments and are well represented there, reporting little to no discrimination and almost never practicing self-censorship. The situation is quite different for cultural conservatives. A 1999 survey found that being a practicing Christian is more damaging to one’s prospects at an elite research institution than being a Republican or a woman. A 2007 survey found that Evangelicals and Mormons are the least liked religious groups among American university faculty by a wide margin.
ChatGPT says:
The one consistent institutional counterweight to LGBT normalization has been traditional religion, especially Roman Catholicism and conservative Protestant denominations. Once the military dropped its barrier in 2011, the battleground narrowed to churches and faith-based institutions.
A few blunt realities stand out from Paul’s work and the broader trends:
1. Zero-sum framing.
What used to be framed as pluralism—“live and let live”—has hardened into a zero-sum contest. If LGBT acceptance is seen as non-negotiable moral truth, then any faith that resists isn’t just “different,” but “bigoted.” That makes compromise politically impossible. State policy inevitably validates one worldview over the other.2. Collapse of religious liberty as a consensus value.
Religious freedom was once untouchable. But by 2015, you start seeing “so-called religious freedom” in mainstream media—a rhetorical downgrade from bedrock principle to suspect cover story. Once that shift happened, protections became contingent and fragile, depending on whether they were seen as obstacles to equality.3. Class and education divide.
The most elite, highly educated denominations were also the first to embrace normalization. This tracks with broader class alignment: upper-middle-class professionals lean liberal on social issues, and elite institutions amplify those views. That’s why pushback comes less from economic conservatives (who still have a foothold in academia) and more from cultural conservatives (who are increasingly locked out).4. Anti-Christian bias in the academy.
The survey findings Paul cites are stark: Evangelicals and Mormons are the least liked groups among faculty, even less than Republicans or women in the old boys’ club world of academia. This bias doesn’t just shape discourse; it sets the intellectual climate for future elites.5. Violence and niche construction.
When you mention “niche construction” and shootings at Christian schools, it touches the darker edge of this dynamic: if institutions are cast as enemies of progress, extremists will feel justified targeting them. That doesn’t mean most people want violence, but once hostility to Christianity becomes culturally ambient, it can create niches where radical acts feel “validated.”So the trajectory Paul mapped in 2019 has only sharpened: LGBT identity is now sacralized in elite culture, and traditional Christianity is increasingly stigmatized. The “clash” isn’t episodic—it’s structural.
If mainstream culture has hardened into the assumption that LGBT affirmation is the moral baseline, then Christianity can either (1) adapt and dilute or (2) resist and radicalize. Each carries risks:
1. Adapt and dilute.
Mainline Protestant denominations took this route: ordaining gay clergy, performing same-sex weddings, shifting doctrine.
The problem: it didn’t lead to growth. It led to collapse, because people who wanted progressive values didn’t need church to validate them—they already had the culture. Membership and vitality bled away.
Catholicism faces pressure here too: Pope Francis has softened tone, but the institution can’t go full-in without undermining centuries of teaching.
2. Resist and radicalize.
To preserve doctrinal integrity, churches may lean harder into countercultural identity. That risks being branded as “Christian nationalist” (a pejorative label elites use for any public expression of politically conservative faith).
The upside: resistance can produce vitality. People often rally to causes under siege. If Christianity frames itself as a minority, embattled but faithful remnant, that can build cohesion.
The downside: too sharp a politicization risks turning churches into partisan clubs, reducing their transcendent appeal and reinforcing the culture-war cage match.
3. Likely trajectory.
Elite churches: more adaptation, continued decline, but they remain socially respectable.
Evangelicals, traditional Catholics, Mormons, Orthodox: more resistance, more suspicion from elites, but possibly greater fervor and cohesion.
Public perception: “Christian nationalist” becomes the default insult for any conservative Christian institution that refuses LGBT affirmation, even if its focus is doctrine rather than politics.
4. Ten-year outlook.
Expect further legal and cultural marginalization of conservative churches—tax-exemption challenges, zoning fights, loss of accreditation for schools that don’t comply with gender ideology, etc.
Christianity survives not by blending in but by embracing outsider status. Think of it less as chaplaincy to the culture and more as a countercultural community.
The price is being vilified, but the payoff is authenticity and possibly growth among people disillusioned with secular progressivism.
In other words: Christianity will likely survive by becoming more self-consciously extreme in the eyes of the mainstream—leaning into separatism, parallel institutions, and a strong group identity. That’s where durability lies.
Jews, historically, survived as a small, often-despised minority precisely by building strong parallel institutions, developing thick community identity, and resisting full assimilation. If conservative Christians go that route, here’s what “aping Jews” could look like:
1. Parallel Education.
Jewish day schools, yeshivas, and Hebrew schools preserved language, culture, and religion across centuries of hostility.
Christians could double down on homeschooling networks, classical Christian academies, and universities that don’t bow to accreditation demands on LGBT ideology. Accreditation battles are coming, so creating independent credentialing bodies will be crucial.
2. Strong Communal Identity.
Jews survived by keeping religious law (dietary rules, Sabbath, circumcision) that set them apart.
Christians may need to reclaim stricter moral codes around sex, family, and liturgy — not to blend with culture but to distinguish themselves from it. This makes them harder to assimilate, but also harder to dissolve.
3. Mutual Aid Networks.
Jewish communities thrived through charities, burial societies, legal aid groups, and communal funds.
Churches could build stronger internal safety nets: healthcare co-ops, financial assistance, job networks. That reduces dependence on hostile institutions.
4. Parallel Media & Culture.
Jews have historically created their own press, arts, and intellectual hubs.
Christians could do the same: podcasts, publishing houses, film studios, even social media alternatives that nurture believers without relying on hostile cultural gatekeepers.
5. Political Flexibility, Social Rigidity.
Jews were often politically adaptable (serving different empires, states, and regimes) but rigid about internal practice.
Christians may need to hold firm on doctrine while learning to maneuver politically as minorities — demanding protections, cutting deals, and using law strategically rather than assuming cultural dominance.
6. Accept Outsider Status.
The Jewish mentality was “we are not like them, and that’s why we endure.”
For Christians, that means abandoning the old assumption that America is “their” country. Instead, adopt the mentality of a diaspora minority: resilient, self-reliant, and wary of the state.
7. Fertility & Family as Strategy.
Jews maintained numbers despite persecution through strong family culture.
Christians who reject cultural trends could lean into higher birthrates, family solidarity, and intergenerational transmission of faith as their growth engine.
This is basically niche construction: creating a durable sub-society with its own rules, safety nets, and identity markers. The price is marginalization and suspicion from the mainstream, but the payoff is survival.
Christian minority survival playbook (10-year)
Adopt a diaspora mindset
Stop assuming cultural chaplaincy; plan as a long-term minority.
Teach members to expect stigma, not panic at it.
Write a short “Rule of Life” (daily prayer/Scripture, weekly Lord’s Day kept like a real Sabbath, fasting calendar, sexual ethics, tithing, service).
Draw bright lines on doctrine and conduct
Publish a clear statement on marriage, sex, and personhood; bind leaders to it.
Pair conviction with explicit commitments to nonviolence, neighbor love, and dignity for all.
Train the church to answer “why” without rancor; use one-page catechetical briefs.
Parallel education
Launch or join classical Christian microschools/homeschool pods; build a teacher pipeline from your own members.
Create an independent assessment/credential (exams, portfolios) so graduates signal quality without relying on hostile accreditors.
Found a gap-year discipleship/vocational program (Bible, finance, trades, media).
Mutual aid and economic resilience
Stand up a benevolence fund, rotating savings circle, and job board inside the church.
Form co-ops: childcare swap, tutoring, bulk food buy, tool library.
Encourage member-owned small businesses; host quarterly hiring fairs.
Health and welfare alternatives
Join or found a health-share; negotiate cash-pay pricing with friendly clinics.
Create a mental health referral list of orthodox, licensed clinicians.
Train lay deacons for crisis response (bereavement, addiction, housing).
Legal posture and insurance
Retain counsel on a small annual retainer; keep model policies current (facility use, employment, school handbooks).
Join/ally with serious religious liberty litigators; pre-fund a small legal defense reserve.
Keep meticulous documentation; paper wins cases.
Security without militancy
Do professional risk assessments; implement CPTED basics (lighting, entry control, cameras).
Train ushers/greeters in de-escalation and emergency medical basics; run drills twice a year.
Carry robust liability and D&O insurance; review annually.
Media, messaging, and reputation
Designate one trained spokesperson; run media drills.
Launch a small in-house studio: sermons, explainer shorts, testimonies, Q&A.
Serve your neighbors visibly (food bank, ESL, foster care support) to build legitimacy that outlasts headlines.
Cultural formation that sticks
Make Sunday countercultural: unhurried liturgy, serious preaching, rich music, real table fellowship.
Mark time with the church calendar; make feasts and fasts felt.
Create rites of passage at 12/18/25 with mentoring and practical skills.
Youth and intergenerational transmission
Pair every teen with a vetted adult mentor.
Run “tech wise” contracts with families; phone-free youth spaces.
Summer intensives: Bible, service, craft, entrepreneurship.
Governance and accountability
Elder board with staggering terms; independent audit or review annually.
Mandatory safe-church protocols, background checks, third-party reporting channels.
Publish budgets; teach stewardship; avoid celebrity dynamics.
Alliances (learn from Jewish communal resilience)
Network with Orthodox Jews, Muslims, Latter-day Saints, Eastern Orthodox, and Catholics on shared liberties (zoning, school choice, conscience).
Trade playbooks on schools, kosher/halal-analogous compliance, and mutual aid.
Keep politics instrumental, not identity-forming.
Geographic strategy
Choose “thick” neighborhoods: walking distance to church/school, affordable housing, small business fronts.
Consider buying a mixed-use building (sanctuary weekday = school/community hall).
If you can’t cluster, federate: multiple “household hubs” with shared standards.
Financial durability
Normalize 10% giving as floor for leaders; build a 6-month operating reserve.
Create a small endowment (target 1–3 years’ ops); seek bequests.
Use donor-advised funds and church CDFs/credit unions when possible.
Digital independence
Own your domain, mailing list, and LMS; don’t rely solely on big-platform algorithms.
Self-host sermons/docs; mirror to major platforms as distribution, not dependency.
Privacy training for leaders; incident response plan.
Political minimalism with clear priorities
Focus on a few nonnegotiables (free exercise, accreditation freedom, school choice). Don’t be a party appendage.
Teach members to show up locally: school boards, zoning, library policy—boring is powerful.
Language discipline: “religious minority rights,” “pluralism,” “conscience,” not “take the nation back.”
Growth engine: family, conversion, retention
Invest in marriage prep, postpartum care, and large-family logistics.
Make evangelism normal: monthly testimony nights, hospitality training, seeker small groups.
Track retention at 1/3/5 years; assign shepherding for drifters.
Red-line guardrails (avoid the “Christian nationalist” trap)
No ethnic identitarianism; multiethnic leadership on purpose.
No romanticizing violence or the state; Christ above party.
Publicly discipline genuine extremism; do it quickly and transparently.
Metrics that matter (quarterly dashboard)
Member retention %; teen retention through 25.
Households in a small group; households with a Rule of Life.
Mutual-aid grants given/received; jobs filled via the network.
School enrollment; volunteers trained in security/child safety.
Media reach you own (email list) vs borrowed (social).
Phased rollout
0–6 months: adopt Rule of Life; legal/policy review; start small groups; launch benevolence fund; comms plan; basic security.
6–24 months: open a microschool/pod; job board; counseling network; quarterly service projects; quarterly media cadences; reserve fund to 3 months.
Years 2–5: acquire property for school/community hall; endowment to 1 year; teacher pipeline; city coalition work; measurable youth retention gains.
Years 5–10: federation of schools; independent exams/credential; credit union/CDF partnership; leadership succession bench.
Short checklist to start next week
Draft and adopt a two-page Rule of Life.
Retain counsel; update policies; schedule a security audit.
Appoint leads for: education, mutual aid, comms, youth, governance.
Stand up a weekly meal + small groups; open a benevolence intake form.
Buy your domain; set up a newsletter; publish one catechesis brief.
Pick one neighborhood service project and own it monthly.
This is how you get durable: thick practices, parallel institutions, legal prudence, visible service, and disciplined messaging. Lean into minority status, stay cheerful, keep receipts, and build for your grandchildren.
