Grok says: Flight Details: Between June 14 and June 16, 2025, three cargo planes took off from Chinese cities, including Shanghai and a coastal city. Flight tracking data indicates they flew westward through northern China, crossed Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and then disappeared from radar near Iranian airspace. Their flight plans listed Luxembourg as the destination, but none of the planes appeared to approach European skies.
Suspicious Behavior: The planes reportedly turned off their transponders, making them nearly invisible to radar, a highly unusual practice for civilian aviation that suggests a covert operation. This has fueled speculation that the flights were carrying military equipment, such as weapons, drones, or ballistic missile components, to support Iran during its conflict with Israel. Boeing 747 freighters are commonly used for transporting heavy military cargo under government contracts.
Context and Speculation: The flights coincided with intensified Israeli airstrikes on Iran, including Operation Rising Lion, which targeted Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Iran is a key energy supplier to China, providing about two million barrels of oil daily, and the two nations share a strategic partnership opposing U.S.-led global influence. Some analysts suggest China may be aiding Iran to stabilize the regime and protect its economic interests, though direct military involvement risks straining relations with the U.S., Israel’s primary ally.
Official Responses and Uncertainty: China has not confirmed any military deliveries but has expressed support for Iran’s sovereignty and criticized Israel’s actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has called for de-escalation while opposing violations of Iran’s territorial integrity. Without independent inspections, the exact cargo remains unknown, and some sources suggest the flights could have been for evacuating Chinese personnel or sensitive equipment rather than military aid. Cargolux, a partially Chinese-owned carrier, denied that one of its planes entered Iranian airspace, attributing discrepancies to faulty tracking data.
Geopolitical Implications: If confirmed, Chinese military support for Iran could escalate tensions, potentially violating international sanctions and complicating U.S.-China relations. However, experts like Andrea Ghiselli and Tuvia Gering caution that China is likely acting cautiously to avoid direct confrontation, possibly supplying dual-use technology instead of overt military hardware. The lack of concrete evidence keeps the situation speculative, with calls for international investigations to clarify the flights’ purpose.
