Election Predictions

A friend adds: There are four points to make:

(1) Democrats have a three to one advantage in spending over Republicans

(2) Although Trump has drawn large crowds for his rallies, this can be deceptive as it was in 2012 when Romney drew huge enthusiastic crowds or predictive as it was in 2016. However, by putting himself out there at the rallies, Trump will make it easier for him to claim an endorsement of his policies if his candidate wins and easier for his opponents to claim a repudiation of Trump if his candidate loses. But most campaigns, for the House especially, but to a lesser degree the Senate, revolve around local issues and whether the candidate has the money to get his or her message out. So regardless of the outcome, it should be viewed through a series of lenses including but not limited to Trump, money and local issues, and the point I will raise next.

(3) I have been following real clear politics regarding the house of representative races. Over the past three months, the predictions of how many House seats would go to Democrats and how many would go to Republicans and how many toss ups there are, has ranged from a high of 205 or 206 Democrat seats guaranteed to a low of around 200. For Republicans the range has been in the 201 to 196 range with the balance being toss ups. What this shows is that regardless of which party wins the seat in that particular district, it can’t be seen as an overwhelming mandate or repudiation of that candidate or of Trump. It looks like many of these districts will be decided by less than a couple of thousand votes which for statistical purposes is a tie even if one party takes the seat. It will be interesting to see how the winners choose to govern and vote if they were voted in on a very slim margin.

(4) If the Democrats take the house, because of seniority, there will be many African American chairs of House Committees. Some of these will be smart politicians and not racial tribalists. Others are, frankly idiot idealogues or racial tribalists. If Pelosi can’t keep the crazies and stupid ones out of positions in power, it will reflect poorly on Democrats and if the Democrats are in fact perceived throughout American, and especially among persons of color who are not black, as “the black party,” this will greatly work to Republican’s advantage in 20120.

About Luke Ford

I've written five books (see Amazon.com). My work has been followed by the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and 60 Minutes. I teach Alexander Technique in Beverly Hills (Alexander90210.com).
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