The only comments section I read regularly is on Steve Sailer’s blog. It is a collection of many of the sharpest minds on the Right and most of the most prominent commenters on there such as Lot and SPMoore8 predicted at Hillary victory. Steve Sailer always wrote about Trump as a long shot to win.
Since Trump’s Mobile rally on Friday, August 21, 2015, I became convinced (I don’t think I ever watched a political rally before, not for more than 10 minutes, and I don’t recall getting goosebumps from one) and publicly predicted a Trump victory and I never wavered after that when asked, even though almost everybody in my life mocked me for it. My emotions, however, were a rollercoaster during the campaign and I had many private doubts about a Trump victory though I never could picture in my head a Hillary presidency. I never seriously entertained the possibility of Hillary winning. It was unimaginable to me.
(At the shuls I attend, I’ve been nicknamed “Navi” aka “The Prophet” for my 16 months of consistent support for Trump against all ridicule.)
Tuesday morning, November 8, 2016, I retweeted Richard Spencer that black turnout was down in North Carolina. I thought that was significant and it gave me hope.
When Matt Drudge released around 1:15 pm PST the early exit polls showing Trump winning Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio, I saw that Trump had a good chance to win (last election at this time, it was clear from Drudge that Obama had won, Drudge was similarly accurate in calling 2000 for George W. Bush around this time of the day). Then the next wave of exit polls came through about 5pm, and all the pundits such as Frank Luntz, Charles Krauthammer and Sean Trende declared that Hillary would win in a landslide. I got nervous and stopped talking about the election.
About 6pm, I saw that Trump still had a shot and I started telling people that based on the exit polls and results so far, Trump could do it. Around 8 pm, I saw that it was increasingly likely that Trump would win and I became giddy.
Here is how election day went down there:
* Even if Trump wins, I’m going to be sad when this whole thing is over. This has been some of the most fun I’ve had in years!
Daily media triggerings! The rise of Mookarthyism!
Every day, I’ve been excited to get up, to see what crazy new stuff was going to happen.
It’s been like a dream.
* I put up my final prediction a week ago and it’s set in stone: 334-204 [for Hillary]. Really, its an amazingly good outcome for a presidential candidate who can’t discipline himself to go a week without a self-imposed major embarrassment and who couldn’t be bothered to learn anything about the issues or practice for a debate or organize a ground game for turnout.
* Guys, remember: the stakes have never been higher. Not only does the fate of Western Civilization depend on your vote, but also the fate of my bet for The Donald on Paddy Power. Please, vote accordingly.
* 1. I think the sudden skyrocketing of Obamacare premiums, combined with the last minute email stuff, has driven the undecided herd in Trump’s direction. Trump has behaved himself these last few weeks and perhaps the biggest applause line at his speeches has been when he promises to repeal Obamacare.
2. You get absolutely no hint of this from the mainstream media, who have outdone themselves in over-the-top, beyond parody bias. It is simply inconceivable to them to publish an “analysis” which says, “Skyrocketing Obamacare premiums fueling last minute surge for Trump.” I’m not saying this is 100% percent true, but if they were even slightly neutral you could certainly create somewhat speculative analysis like that. Instead, all we get is the same well-worn cue cards: “Year of the Women!” “Critical Hispanic Voters!” “Crucial support of Millennials.”
* Predictwise says 88% chance of Hillary, 12% of Trump today. Five Thirty-Eight says 71.4%-28.6%, but is known to be overly optimistic.
* Many people on fb today crowing about voting and being “with her” and all that crap. I only know two people that voted for Trump and they are keeping it largely to themselves. My sample is of course super heavily biased (almost all academics/liberals/immigrants) but still it is a real downer.
* Not looking good for you guys at all!
Prediction: Clinton 308, Trump 230. National vote Clinton +4
When Clinton wins I’m wondering what lame excuses we’ll hear from the Republican Party at the end of the week for Chump’s loss.
* Looks bad for Trump, but it should be noted that Republicans tend to do poorly until 5 PM (they’re at work), and VoteCastr’s demographic model is based on the polls, so if there is a “shy Trump” effect, they’re underestimating him.
* Update, all topline numbers completely unchanged, but turnout increased. Looks very bad for Trump if true; probably worse than Romney.
* New numbers, mostly improvements for Trump. Looks like it’ll be close.
* I heard another concern-trolling bit of Hillary propaganda on the radio this morning: one announcer asking another whether “if Hillary wins, will Trump supporters react with violence?”
That sounds like projection to me. We have nothing to fear from Trump supporters who, after all, are the law-abiding wing of the American electorate, even if (for instance) obvious fraud hands Hillary the electoral college without the popular vote.
However, if Hillary obtains the Presidency we can look forward to a lot of violence from her supporters, and the smaller her victory the worse that violence will be.
Hillary’s violence will take the form of property confiscations and arrests for “environmental” violations, arrests for “hate speech” when communities protest the forced resettlement of illegal immigrant paupers and criminals in their neighborhoods, greatly increased urban crime when police are forbidden to arrest minorities, house-to-house searches for newly-banned guns by Federal agents using lists of buyers taken from gun-shops’ records, and so-forth.
If Hillary wins, her supporters will invert the Constitution and stop at nothing in an attempt to crush their Trump-supporting enemies for all time. They will take Erdogan and Maduro as their role models.
* The best thing about this election is that defeatist cucks like SPMoore will have to find a new line of defeatism after Trump wins.
* The God-Emperor Trump is gracious. He is generous, forgiving, kind. You, too, will love him soon enough.
* Last time I voted was for GWB in 2000. Didn’t work out so well. As I voted for The Donald I got a tears in my eyes. The chance to vote for my hero! As Dylan said,either I’m too sensitive or else I’m gettin’ soft.
* Took a vacation day today to avoid my co-workers. Last night they were talking about Trump supporter violence after his loss–couldn’t stay in the room with them.
Just woke up to find snorlax’s posts and feel kind of sick to my stomach (haven’t forced myself to look at MSM sites yet). Despite predicting a Clinton win for the last few months, I’ve been hoping Jack Hanson was right.
Don’t know how my extended family is voting but probably around 70/30 or 80/20 for Clinton (they are midwesterners). Parents probably for Trump or maybe split in a solid blue state. Brother I’m assuming for third party in a swing state.
The morning sun is revealing a clear bright rainbow. Since it’s already November 9 in Japan, I’m taking this an apology from God for the flood of Clinton support. Here’s hoping I’m wrong…
* Florida, N Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire and Colorado will go Trump and Trump will win. This year the pollsters could not get a good handle on the electorate, this is what they will say in the election post mortems. Then you have the dishonest pollsters who are as bad as the biased media. They deliberately over sample Democrats to come up with polls showing Hillary on top and that she is inevitable. Done to demoralize Trump supporters.
* … it is probably over for Trump based on Florida county turnout.
* By making such posts as these, are you not risking discouraging potential Trump voters from voting?
* Trump winning would be a huge win for Nate Silver. All the other poll trackers are saying Hillary 90-99%, while Silver says 65-70%. They had a nasty twitterwar attacking Silver for saying Trump has a decent chance still.
* NBC exit poll had Trump doing better than Romney with Latinos and Trump pulling in about 13% of the black vote.
Also, you would hope the non-suburban white vote would be up more than 2%. Be really narrow, but I think Trump can still pull Florida.
* Trump is getting smashed on Sportsbet. Went from $4.4 overnight to $8 and in space of 5 minutes now at $10!
Clinton is $1.10.
* Results, so far, are not looking so good for Trump in North Carolina and Ohio either.
* Trump’s come storming back to $5.70! Has the rail run rounding the bend! Nearly time to get out the whip for the run home, go you good thing!!
* Trump up by a lot in FL and VA. Not surprised to log in here and see a lot of cuck defeatism because it’s not a 50 state sweep or something.
What will you CTR shills do after the election?
* The corporate media hacks are worrisomely chipper and yet tranquil. Do they know the fix is in for a Hill-dog steal?
* Trump up to 35% on PredictIt.
* It’s interesting to me that these pieces on “extremists” never mention or cite Steve.
My interpretation is: the MSM deep down recognizes that Steve’s “citizenism” is actually not extremist, but in fact the reasonable moderate alternative to their own extremism.
And in fact, with the possible exception of that one remark about blacks in New Orleans that gave JPod a hissy fit, it’s hard, even with the worst intentions, to find a quote from Steve that will make the Goodwhites gasp in horror.
On another note, I think Steve is onto something with this idea that the MSM is all about projecting their own feelings of hatred onto their enemies.
* Trump is up in FL, OH, NC, VA, and PA right now.
Starting to see the leftist freakout begin from the punditry.
* Neck and neck last 600 down the straight, 2016 Melbourne Cup all over again!
Trump now in to $2.26. Clinton out to $1.59.
* NYT now has race a tossup, with Trump slightly more likely to win (52%).
* I’ve been following Bill Mitchell on Twitter the past 24 hours. The Baghdad Bob or Comical Ali of this election. The mainstream press is so dishonest and fraudulent. I’ll go down deluded in a bubble of my own choosing.
* New York Times currently has Trump with 87% chance of winning. Key individual states as follows (assuming Florida for Trump, Virginia for Clinton):
Pennsylvania (52% possibility)
Michigan (69%)
Iowa (52%)
Wisconsin (68%)
North Carolina (93%)4Arizona (92%)
Utah (71%)
New Hampshire (30%)
Nevada (34%)
Colorado (5%)
But with Clinton winning popular vote by 1.4%.
* I predicted Trump would take the whole thing two weeks after he announced his entry into the race, & I have it in print and timestamped on Facebook. I never wavered from that prediction. Unlike Scott Adams and many others who said “well this changes everything” and went back and forth.
God I wish I was in America right now. I’d be watching every channel and laughing and swimming in the tears of the aged establishment of the wealyhy, media, education racket and governemnt employees!!
I haven’t had a drink in about 6 months (not an alcoholic, just happened that way) but I’m gonna find a liquor store somewhere in this Islamic land and Go To Town!
* Trump has broken clear by 3 lengths and moving away fast, winning post in sight!
Clinton straining heavily under the whip but not responding, showing signs of distress with flecks of froth and foam flying, a breakdown on the cards!
Trump $1.08, Clinton $6.50!
* Trump is crushing the Democrats, seeing them driven before him, and hearing the lamentation of their women.
* Part of me still thinks this is too good to be true, like maybe the NYT is intentionally lowballing Hillary so they can rave about her being “the Comeback Kid” after she “miraculously” pulls out wins in some combination of FL, PA, and IA.
* NYT is projecting a 305 to 233 Trump victory (or a 300 to 238 Trump victory, depending on which gizmo you look at), with Trump taking Pennsylvania (by a hair), Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, Iowa, and losing Colorado, Maine, Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Minnesota.
* Nate Cohn: How to think about this election: white working class voters just decided to vote like a minority group. They’re >40% of the electorate.
* I have been watching CNN and thought that Wolf B. looked unhappy, but then I turned to Uu-nivi-see-ooonnn for a minute and Jorge Ramos looks absolutely fucking stricken. In the inset view they showed some poor little snowflake SJW at the Javits Center just bawling…prog tears taste so sweet!
I’m watching Jorge some more a few minutes later, I think he’s going to cry.
* I would like to be gloating more openly but given where I live and where I work, I need to keep things low-key.
* I wonder what will happen to Univision’s viewership as a large number of them either voluntarily or involuntarily are deported back to Mexico. My guess is it will decrease, and appetite to be immersed in Spanish declines.
At your throat or at your feet. Non-white votes will be at our throats, but look to the words in the coming months to be at our feet. Look at the actions, not the words.
* Well you can put down the binoculars now because it’s Trump, Trump, TRUMP by a country mile, as he flashes past the winning post, fist in the air!
* Let me tell you about Reince. I’ve said Reince. I know it. I know it. Look at all of those people over there. I know it, Reince is a superstar. I said, they can’t call you a superstar, Reince, unless we win it. Like Secretariat. He would not have that bust at the track at Belmont.
SAILER’S OTHER ELECTION THREAD:
* Imagine no never trump cucks in the media.
imagine no never trump cucks in the GOP
imagine GOP spent some of trumps contributions on trumps campaign
Imagine the dems were no allowed to cheat
imagine the media was only its usual amount of partisanship
imagine a few democratic voters had actually read the wikileaks
imagine trump had bothered to put together a ground game
imagine trump had bothered to prepare for the debates
imagine trump were actually intelligent and articulate
probably wont win but even if its as close as it seems thats phenomenal considering the above
* Trump is a human bulldozer. Un-real that a 70 year old man has that stamina and willpower to go it *completely* alone with nothing but the untapped will of the American people to keep him going. He may inspire me to stop drinking.
* Silver’s widget still showing Trump winning at 58% chance, with either Michigan or Pennsylvania putting him over the top, but with Hillary winning the popular vote by 2.0%.
Now while I’d prefer Trump also win the popular vote, you have to admit him winning the election while losing the popular vote by such a large amount will made the libs hilariously MAF.
* If Trump wins, Scott Adams will become the political pundit of the decade.
* Trump is like a guy coming out of the stands and showing up the professionals on the field. Everyone wonders how good he could have been with practice and training.
* Trump looking good at 66% according to NYT as of 7:00 PST.
Looks like it’s going to be MI that puts him on top instead of VA. NH starting to look good too. Throw in IA and it’s President Trump.
I agree with all the posters saying he is superhuman. Simply incredible. 7 rallies a day at the end. The final rally in Grand Rapids, MI. Genius.
* I wouldn’t at this point give Silver too much grief over his call.
He at least put up a real resistance to the idiots to the left of him who were making crazy projections, like the HuffPo guy who said that Clinton’s chances were 98+%.
And then there was this Sam Wang guy in Princeton whose model gave her 99+% What a genius.
I should think that there is one big lesson of this election that certainly holds no matter the final outcome for our projectors and pundits.
They need to acknowledge that there are many things they just don’t know. Why this is so hard for them entirely eludes me.
* Feels good so far. My conscience is clean: 250+ calls to support DJT plus tons of other support, volunteer time for his allies. I hope the Patriots on this board left nothing in reserve effort-wise. iSteve has been fighting a 20 yr culture/media war to help set the stage for tonight’s events, so he doesn’t owe us much more (just keep on with more of the same Steve!). Can’t wait to see all the CST & MST results. Gonna be a helluva night!
* Arrayed against Trump are (1) the entire dimocrat party; (2) some double counting here but the ruthless corruption of the Clintonistas adds considerable moral, economic, and physical danger to danger to anyone who appears poised to successfully overcome their reign of terror; (3) most of the stoopid party elite; (4) the neocons; (5) the entire MSM who have raised lying for political purposes to a transcendent level; (6) most of the big political spenders in this country; (7) foreign interlopers like George Soros who have applied Nazi street terror techniques to this election cycle; (8) K street; (9) this country’s entire bien pensants and intelligentsia.
He has been outspent by a factor of many to one by his political enemies. He has had to build up a grass roots organization from scratch to run a political campaign against a ruthless and experienced coalition of political insiders who know all the tricks. It is likely that he is dealing with a significant amount of voter fraud and dirty tricks on the part of his opponents; McAuliffe’s games in Virginia exemplify both.
Despite this he has soldiered on to win the primary against overwhelming odds. And he has a good shot at winning the general election.
And all this is because he has had the courage to champion the interests of ordinary American citizens against the elite/establishment who are out to turn this country into a banana republic. Trump has already one this election where it counts. He has given hope to the masses who support him and put the fear of righteous retribution into the hearts of the nation’s elites/establishment.
* Story we’ll never see from the MSM: “Black voters bored by old white lady #demcandidatessowhite”
* Steve Sailer: I’ve been focusing on the NYT, but other models aren’t as optimistic about Trump’s chances.
* Trump is Henry V. Came from low beginnings, all assumed he wasn’t fit for his station, turned out to be a genius leader, and won over overwhelming odds.
* The newscasters on CBS – Oprah’s girlfriend among them – have been looking glum. Major Garrett, stationed at Trump headquarters, looks downright grim and pissed off.
They showed a shot of the numbers guys who make the calls for the network, staring at what looked like a giant spreadsheet. They had funereal expressions on their faces.
They also showed an unflattering photograph of Trump watching the returns. If they’ve shown Hillary, I’ve missed it.
The Clinton supporters – mostly young women – look pretty depressed right now. One girl was crying.
* I’m still a bit shocked as a Trump victory seemed nearly impossible. After all he only had the DNC, Wall Street, the media, the corporations, and his very own party (cucks) working to destroy him.
* I am still shaking! I am shaking! I only have 6 friends in my community who are on the same team – it’s been tough to talk in code…26 across the country….18 worldwide! You only have 50 people close to you….ok, Steve, look that up! – I really do think everyone has 50 people who care about them.
On FB; I have hidden all my opinions about Trump for 1.4 years. I have hidden my feelings about Migrant Crisis for 2 years. I have always been grumbling about capital chasing cheapest labor since 2000. What a night, Oh, what a night I am feeling ridiculously sappy tonight!
* It’s official after calling PA nothing can take the win from Trump.
I am very impressed with NYT web site and their real time updates and their forecasting algorithms. I was following FL, PA, MI and NH and their projections were changing by very little in last few hours. They were very accurate. They started predicting Trump win already before 9:30pm.
If I had a table with their page I could be on FOX on CNN and give better forecasts than what CNN and FOX were doing.
* Heroic is a good term to describe the Donald. And he did this basically by pure force of his personality. He willed the victory.
I once thought that his run for president made him a latter day George Patton or Douglas MacArthur type of American figure. Winning the office outs him in a whole different category. Sui generis perhaps.
* I bet $500 on Trump at 20:1 on Betfair in July 2015 and I’ve bet a ton of money on Pinnacle since then. I’m not going to be specific, but many of the reasons were isteve related, so here is a premature thank you. This is the smartest blog and comment section on the internet.
* There aren’t many times you really live through HISTORY. Wow.
I doubt the Democrats will try to steal the election at this point. It would guarantee utter chaos.
It’s a little thing, but can we put some pressure on Trump to keep Andrew Jackson on the $20?
* Social Desirability Bias is a measure of media and cultural bigotry. I won’t hold my breath for the long, introspective, concerned think pieces examining the culpability of the media/Hollywood targeting white America with poisonous hatred to such an extent that some 5% of (white) people are afraid to express their Constitutionally protected rights to people on the other end of a phone whom they do not know and will never meet. A shanking that would make the Stasi proud. It should be called “Media Bigotry Bias”.
* I just loved being lectured to by yet another smug, self-righteous, third-world immigrant about what it means to be American.
* Didn’t vote for Trump, but have to give it up to Steve. He called exactly this scenario four years ago. Electoral math says that the best route to Republican victory is to avoid the siren call of minority appeal and focus on rust belt whites. Totally went against conventional wisdom, and turned out correct.
Congrats on your clairvoyance, Steve. Looking forward to the upstart of the Sailer Political Consulting firm.
* Poor Charles Krauthammer on Fox says a Trump win will mean a major realignment of the GOP such as has not occurred since Reagan. Then explains/laments that this means there will be no major party that cares about, i.e. Small government. 50 years after the 1965 Immigration act imports 65 million immigrants who don’t give a frack about “small government” Charles Krautahammer almost gets it.
* Who elected Trump:
-Men
-Whites (duh!)
-Conservatives
-45 and over
-Some college or less
-Whites without college degrees
-$50K-<$100K
-Small city or rural
-Republicans
-White evangelical or born-again Christians
-Attend religious services at least once a week
-Married
-US military service
-Country seriously off track
-Condition of economy fair or poor
-Family financial situation worse
-Trade takes away jobs
-Illegal immigrants should be deported
-Build a wall
-Dissatisfied or angry with federal government
-I dislike the other candidates
-Can bring needed change
-Decided how to vote in September or October
* Congratulations Steve. Your work has not been in vain. I’m grateful for the education I’ve received through your writings (dating back to your classic story on monogamy in the old NR). It’s been a pleasure spending the last year here with you and your many perceptive commenters.
* I really wish I could be see and hear the fury and anguish of Hillary, George Soros, John McCain, John Kasich, the whole stinking Bush clan, George Will, Glenn Beck, Marl Levin, Jonah Goldberg, John Podhoretz, Steve Hayes, the NY Times editorial board, NPR, etc. I have CNN on and got to savor Van Jones’ diatribe. (Insert Nelson “Ha-ha.”)
Question: A lot of powerful people have invested tens of millions of dollars in Hillary’s campaign in expectation of future favors. Some of these people are very unsavory. How are they going to react to Hillary’s collapse? Good thing for her she has Secret Service protection.
Question: As a commenter on iSteve asked recently, will Carlos Slim and Jeff Bezos decide that their investments in prestige media has not paid off in political influence and pull the plug?
Cue end scene of Kingsmen when the world’s elite have their heads explode.
* [Steve Sailer has] done as much as anyone I know to make this victory possible, and has stayed logical, humorous, and on an even keel every step of the way. He has spoken more ‘truth to power’ than anyone I can name, with the possible exceptions of Mr Buchanan and Ms Coulter. I hope all three of them are considered for important roles in the new Administration. The forces of reaction will be gunning for us in every way imaginable, and we’ll need all the help we can get.
* Steve Sailer is to Donald Trump as Aristotle was to Alexander the Great.
* Game-set-match!
Ladies and gentlemen, we have witnessed history in the making, and it has been a lot of fun.
Cheers!
* There’s an occultist on YouTube styxhexenhammer666 that talks politics too. He almost got every state correct.
Not an altrighter but his analysis was amazing.
