Scott Adams writes: If you have been following this blog since last year, you know I have been saying Trump was playing 3D chess against 2D opponents. And by that I meant Trump was using powerful persuasion techniques while the rest of the field was flailing away with facts, reason, policy details, and other things that don’t change anyone’s mind.
Then, in late spring, at about the time that Bernie Sanders’ flamed out, Clinton ascended to the 3D playing field and stayed there, thanks to help – I assume – from one or more weapons-grade behavioral psychologists who joined the cause. For the past few months both candidates have operated in the third dimension, where emotion and persuasion rule, and facts are irrelevant.
Recently, Clinton has been winning in the third dimension. She abandoned her 2D rational arguments about experience and policies and started hypnotizing voters into believing they have the power to predict the future if they try hard enough. And in that imaginary future, Donald Trump is incinerating the world with nuclear fire because he can’t take advice, or he’s a narcissist, or he’s unstable, or he’s Hitler Version 2.0. This approach is excellent persuasion, and it is working for Clinton….
My prediction from last year – that Trump would win the general election in a landslide – was based on his persuasion advantage. That advantage is largely gone now because Clinton has evidently hired some weapons-grade Master Persuaders and moved to a purely emotional appeal, specifically fear. And it is working.
If nothing changes, Clinton will win in November. But things rarely stay the same. Here are several ways Trump could still win from behind.
1. Voters discover that Clinton has been hiding a major health issue.
2. Wikileaks releases something damaging.
3. Trump over-performs at the first debate, showing the world that he is willing and able to master the issues.
4. Trump makes the case that the Clinton Foundation is really about selling influence to foreign concerns.
5. Trump gives a speech or interview that is so effective in its empathy that he no longer appears to be crazy and racist.
6. A new surprise revelation about Clinton that no one sees coming.
7. Terror attacks push everything else out of the headlines in the final months.
8. Someone assassinates Clinton because of Trump’s 2nd Amendment joke.
Trump still has several ways to win, and at least three of those paths are under his control. But to be fair, we have seen no evidence that Trump is likely to do anything different in terms of style. So don’t count on a personality change.
In terms of persuasion technique, Clinton now has world-class advisors, but Trump still has the advantage of his risk profile. Trump can take bigger risks and go places Clinton wouldn’t dare. So Trump’s persuasion can be stronger if he chooses to increase his risk. Clinton will be more constrained by political correctness.
