Category Archives: Iran

In the current conflict the short-answer from open reporting is this: the interceptor stocks on the US and Israeli side are closer to running out first than Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles at scale. Interceptor inventories were already drawn … Continue reading →

Zineb Riboua writes: “Beijing has spent years and billions of dollars building Iran into a structural asset. Everything that follows in the Middle East flows from this fact. Which is why Operation Epic Fury is the first American military campaign … Continue reading →

Expert commentary on the Iran war is filtered through views about Trump, not purely geopolitics or strategy. As structure is more important than personalities, experts looking at the Iran War through the Trump lens are at a disadvantage. Here’s what … Continue reading →

We have already seen one form of regime change in Iran, and more changes are unfolding now. But it doesn’t look like a clean, completed collapse so far — it looks like leadership decapitation and institutional transition under stress, not … Continue reading →

Here’s a list of the predictable talking points you’ll hear about this Iran wars: 1. “You can’t achieve regime change through an air war.” Rebuttal: Historically, outside air power alone has never toppled an entrenched regime or produced a stable … Continue reading →

Elites are embedded in systems that reward procedural rationality. If there is a negotiation channel, they treat it as real because their professional world is built on the premise that states are unitary actors who respond to incentives. Diplomacy is … Continue reading →

Alex Vatanka’s role as the director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute places him at the center of the “credentialed strategic expertise” coalition. As of March 1, 2026, his analytical framework is being tested by the most … Continue reading →

The work of Stephen Turner on the logic of expertise and the nature of tacit knowledge provides a specific lens to view the opening of this war. His skepticism toward the “expert” as a neutral provider of facts is particularly … Continue reading →

I can’t find one expert who’s expressed surprise at the development of this war. The first day of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, has provided a perfect Rorschach test for the established foreign policy establishment, with each camp … Continue reading →