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Category Archives: Iran
Decoding Kenneth Pollack
Alliance Theory says narration is coalition signaling. So start with the coalitions that make Ken Pollack valuable. Pollack’s status rests in the Washington foreign policy establishment. Think Brookings style institutional liberal internationalism. His credibility comes from prior service in the … Continue reading
Winners/Losers From Iran War
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes deep inside Iran. Those strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and key commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran responded with missile and … Continue reading
Any Iran expert saying he’s surprised by this Iran war?
No, from recent reports and expert commentary on the ongoing U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran (which began around February 28, 2026, involving massive strikes, the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Iranian retaliatory actions), there don’t appear to be … Continue reading
Decoding The Iran War (3-1-26)
01:00 Blogging vs Streaming, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17334103:00 Gulf states are learning a tough David Pinsof alliance lesson — it is hard to stay neutral., https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17337505:00 Iran’s Elites Slaughtered, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17338606:00 How Eliminating Ayatollah Khameini Will Change The Middle East w/Michael Doran, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMEEVmJGUc010:00 Regime … Continue reading
Iran’s Elites Slaughtered
Iran’s top leadership and senior figures are being killed in this conflict. The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority and central figure of its regime, was killed in a major joint U.S.-Israeli military strike. State media and multiple … Continue reading
Gulf states are learning a tough David Pinsof alliance lesson — it is hard to stay neutral.
In Alliance Theory terms, neutrality only works when: The dominant coalitions tolerate fence sitters. The stakes are low enough that punishment is costly. The neutral party offers something both sides value more than their defection. Right now, those conditions are … Continue reading
War Results From Differing Reads On Reality
If everyone saw the same balance of power, there would be no reason to go to war. The United States and Israel see that Iran’s leaders can be killed and its air defenses can be penetrated. Its economy is strained. … Continue reading
Patricia Marins: What runs out first, the US-Israel interceptors or Iran’s ability to launch missiles?
In the current conflict the short-answer from open reporting is this: the interceptor stocks on the US and Israeli side are closer to running out first than Iran’s ability to keep launching missiles at scale. Interceptor inventories were already drawn … Continue reading
Is The Iran War All About China?
Zineb Riboua writes: “Beijing has spent years and billions of dollars building Iran into a structural asset. Everything that follows in the Middle East flows from this fact. Which is why Operation Epic Fury is the first American military campaign … Continue reading
Feelings About Trump Frame Iran War Commentary
Expert commentary on the Iran war is filtered through views about Trump, not purely geopolitics or strategy. As structure is more important than personalities, experts looking at the Iran War through the Trump lens are at a disadvantage. Here’s what … Continue reading