Category Archives: Iran

The conflict’s intensity—direct US involvement, the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian missile retaliation hitting Gulf states and Israel, and early US casualties—has driven massive engagement, with some commentators gaining followers, views, and shares through real-time analysis, contrarian takes, … Continue reading →

Per Alliance Theory, there are two different moral universes hiding inside the same word. When the expert class says Trump is reckless, they usually mean this: Reckless equals norm breaking plus escalation risk. In their frame, recklessness is acting without … Continue reading →

The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury / Lion’s Roar), which began on February 28, 2026, has caught some observers by surprise in terms of its scale, timing, execution, and immediate fallout—particularly the direct US involvement, the … Continue reading →

Alliance Theory says narration is coalition signaling. So start with the coalitions that make Ken Pollack valuable. Pollack’s status rests in the Washington foreign policy establishment. Think Brookings style institutional liberal internationalism. His credibility comes from prior service in the … Continue reading →

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes deep inside Iran. Those strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and key commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran responded with missile and … Continue reading →

No, from recent reports and expert commentary on the ongoing U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran (which began around February 28, 2026, involving massive strikes, the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Iranian retaliatory actions), there don’t appear to be … Continue reading →

01:00 Blogging vs Streaming, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17334103:00 Gulf states are learning a tough David Pinsof alliance lesson — it is hard to stay neutral., https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17337505:00 Iran’s Elites Slaughtered, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=17338606:00 How Eliminating Ayatollah Khameini Will Change The Middle East w/Michael Doran, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMEEVmJGUc010:00 Regime … Continue reading →

Iran’s top leadership and senior figures are being killed in this conflict. The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s highest authority and central figure of its regime, was killed in a major joint U.S.-Israeli military strike. State media and multiple … Continue reading →

In Alliance Theory terms, neutrality only works when: The dominant coalitions tolerate fence sitters. The stakes are low enough that punishment is costly. The neutral party offers something both sides value more than their defection. Right now, those conditions are … Continue reading →

If everyone saw the same balance of power, there would be no reason to go to war. The United States and Israel see that Iran’s leaders can be killed and its air defenses can be penetrated. Its economy is strained. … Continue reading →