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- NYT: ‘Why Does No One Care About the World Cup This Year?’
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- Carl von Clausewitz: An Intellectual Biography
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* No Kings, No Results: How Elite Pride Replaced Real Progress (10-19-25)
* You Are An Important Soldier In A Great War (9-7-25)
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Category Archives: Iran
Decoding Iran Expert Holly Dagres
Holly Dagres is best understood through David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory as the diaspora interpreter of Iranian society for the Washington policy ecosystem. Her function is not military analysis like Afshon Ostovar and not nuclear strategy like Reid Pauly. Her role … Continue reading
Decoding Nuclear Security Expert Reid Pauly
Reid Pauly is best understood through David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory as a theoretical strategist for the nonproliferation and coercive-diplomacy community. His role is not to advocate a specific Iran policy the way hawkish think tanks do. His function is to … Continue reading
Decoding The Pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy illustrates David Pinsof’s Alliance Theory by serving as a coordination hub for the pro-Israel security coalition. It avoids the friction of overt lobbying by adopting the language of elite credentials and technical expertise. … Continue reading
Decoding Iran Expert Abbas Milani
Abbas Milani directs Iranian Studies at Stanford, which places him inside one of the highest-status academic institutions in the United States, but he is also an Iranian exile intellectual who openly supports democratic transformation in Iran. That combination lets him … Continue reading
Where Is The Expert Herd Going On The Iran War?
Elite expert opinion on the Iran war does not shift all at once. It moves the way a herd moves, with a few animals at the edge turning first while the center holds its position a little longer. The useful … Continue reading
Decoding IRGC Expert Afshon Ostovar
Per Alliance Theory, Iran expert Afshon Ostovar is not an advocate like the hawks, and not a diplomat like the engagement camp. His function is translation. He explains the worldview of the Iranian revolutionary state to American and allied policy … Continue reading
Where Will It Stop?
Here’s another journo cliche — where will it stop? The FT: “Trump’s war on Iran is spreading. Where does it stop? US allies in the Arab world have been plunged into a conflict they neither wanted nor consented to. Historian … Continue reading
Can Iran Kill Americans At Scale?
Six American service members have died in the war so far, all killed in an Iranian strike on a base in Kuwait around March 1. Since then, despite a week of continued exchanges of hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones, … Continue reading
Critical Developments In The Iran War
Drawing from the high-prestige strategy journals and the “quasi-intelligence” shops I’ve been tracking, several critical developments have emerged in the last 48 hours that haven’t hit the standard 24-hour news cycle. 1. The “Ukraine Swap” for Drone Defense Source: Semafor … Continue reading
Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History (2025)
I’m reading Vali Nasr’s book Iran’s Grand Strategy. It’s written in the aftermath of 10-7 and it describes an Iran which dominates the Middle East, leading the mighty axis of resistance. Meanwhile, Vasr describes the US as exhausted, and that … Continue reading