Luke Ford

Clyde Prestowitz wrote in this 2021 book:

The United States got rich by imitating Great Britain and thereby marking a trail followed by Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, Taiwan, and South Korea — all of which eventually became rich. The model was not one of free trade, open markets, and global investment. Rather, it was one of mercantilism and protectionism.

* Between 1700 and 1750, Britain’s home industries increased their output by 7 percent, while export industries expanded by 76 percent. As E. J. Hobsbawm notes: “The country which succeeded in monopolizing the export markets of a large part of the world in a brief period of time, could expand its export industries at a rate that made industrial revolution not only possible but virtually compulsory.” 2 It also tended to make such industries global monopolists.

* [Daniel] Raymond opposed Smith’s preoccupation with individual wealth, arguing that political and economic leaders should focus on the welfare of the nation and the overall society. Smith’s notion that consumers should buy imports when they are cheaper than domestic products, he wrote, risked “destroying the unity of the nation by dividing it into classes and looking to the interests of individuals, instead of looking to the interests of the whole.” Raymond argued that an individual “ought not to be allowed to afford patronage and support to the industry of foreigners, when his own fellow – citizens are in want.” 8 Unlike later economists, he did not assume that the winners from trade would compensate the losers or that a society was better off overall as long as trade produced net gains, even if the gains were monopolized by a very few at the top of the society.

* A crucial element of the American System was government backing of critical infrastructure and strategic industries. The first of these was the National or Cumberland Road. Begun in 1806, it created a paved connection from Cumberland, Maryland, to St. Louis, enabling travel from the Potomac River to the Mississippi in four days. Another important early project was the Erie Canal; completed in October 1825, it was a quick and huge success.
By far the most important project of the American System was the Transcontinental Railroad. In 1850, Congress authorized land grants to Illinois, Mississippi, and Alabama for construction of a rail line connecting Chicago to Mobile. By 1857, grants totaling 21 million acres had turned several railroad companies into America’s first truly big businesses. 11 Then, in the summer of 1862, Abraham Lincoln pushed the Pacific Railroad Act through Congress. The act called for the chartering of two separate companies — the Central Pacific and the Union Pacific — to lay tracks from the Missouri River to Sacramento. After much delay and stupendous feats of engineering, on May 10, 1869, the Central Pacific’s engine Jupiter and the Union Pacific’s Engine 119 stood nose to nose at Promontory Point, Utah, and the nation was connected from coast to coast by a ribbon of steel. Amazingly, although the government had lent the companies more than $64 million, by the end of 1869 it had earned over $103 million in return. More significantly, the railroad led to the creation of huge new markets and cities and transformed the nation into a true continental powerhouse.

* In 1870, Great Britain produced 40 percent of the world’s steel, followed by Germany at 30 percent and the United States at 15 percent. By 1900, U.S. production was nearly 40 percent of the world total, with Germany second at 25 percent and Britain at about 20 percent. By 1913, the U.S. was making nearly half the world’s steel. 16
If we look more broadly at total manufacturing output, we find the same dynamics. 17 By 1914, U.S. GDP stood at $518 billion, more than double that of Britain and over three times that of Germany, while U.S. per capita income was $5,307, compared to $5,032 for Britain and $3,833 for Germany. America had become the richest country in the world, and it had reached this height by using high tariffs and a catch – up strategy that resulted in an annual rate of GDP growth of over 4 percent, while free trade, laissez – faire Britain could not maintain even 2 percent annual growth. 18 In the old tariff debates, it had been argued that protection of nascent U.S. manufacturers with initially higher costs than foreign producers would impose higher prices on consumers and inhibit economic growth. In fact, U.S. producers rapidly improved quality and exploited economies of scale, becoming the world’s low – cost producers even as they paid the highest wages and American consumers enjoyed the lowest relative prices.

* The United States had morphed into the world’s biggest economy, but Britain, still with one of history’s biggest empires, remained diplomatically and militarily the world’s leading power. The British leadership was determined to recover its economic leadership, at least in finance and commerce, and despite what should have been glaring evidence that the laissez – faire system had contributed heavily to British decline, so strong was the belief in the system that the emergency measures instituted during the war were reversed. Government management of the economy was largely abolished, and most (though not all) tariffs were removed.

* By 1945, after a century and a half of “catch – up,” the American System of industrial policy, government – backed infrastructure, protectionism, and continual government intervention in the economy to encourage industrial development and direct war production, the United States emerged from the war as an unprecedentedly powerful hegemonic colossus. It accounted for half of global GDP, owned 70 percent of the world’s gold, had a monopoly on nuclear power, was the world leader in virtually every technology and every industry, owned the world’s main currency, was the leading world creditor, and had a chronic trade surplus. 26 It had more than caught up. It was all alone in a realm no nation had ever before inhabited.
Then it took a fateful new tack.

* The Cold War led Washington not only to adopt free trade as its policy but to adopt unilateral, one – sided free trade. But according to the trade god, that was no problem, because even unilateral free trade was said to be economically more advantageous than protectionism.

* In 1941, economists Wolfgang Stolper and Paul Samuelson added the notion that over time, the costs of production, such as wages, would tend to converge among trading partners. In other words, if the United States and China engaged in free trade with each other, according to Samuelson, their wages would trend toward a median level. Chinese might find this pleasing, but Americans might not. This aspect of the free trade doctrine remained little discussed until very recently.
Under this model, as under Ricardo’s, comparative advantage determines one unique combination or equilibrium of production and trade that produces optimal results for each country and thus for the world. If you grant the assumptions on which this argument is based, its conclusions are mathematically irrefutable.

* Japan after World War II was a country with a lot of inexpensive, relatively unskilled labor and few natural resources. American leaders and economists, in keeping with the orthodox economic doctrine, advised and expected Japan to produce low – tech manufactures such as toys and inexpensive textiles. In 1955, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles advised the Japanese to concentrate on exporting to Southeast Asia and forget about the U.S. market because Japan was incapable of making products Americans would want to buy. The chief U.S. negotiator with Japan on trade, C. Thayer White, in 1954 – 55 advised Japan to forget about creating an auto industry and simply import cars from America.
By 1964, however, Japan’s shipyards were building half the world’s shipping tonnage, the United States had recorded its first trade deficit with Japan, and the “Japanese Miracle” became widely acclaimed. For example, between 1964 and 1984, Japan’s auto industry captured a quarter of the world market. 14
I went to Tokyo in 1965 to study Japanese at Keio University and got to watch the Japanese Miracle unfold. Later, during the Reagan administration, I was counselor to the secretary of commerce, Malcolm Baldrige, and one of the chief U.S. negotiators with Japan during a period of maximum U.S. – Japan trade friction. In this role, I became friends with Naohiro Amaya, a former vice minister of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and one of the key architects of Japan’s postwar “catch – up” industrial policy strategy. He once explained to me the Japanese perspective on economic development and the Anglo – American orthodox trade theory. “We did,” he said, “the opposite of what the American economists said. We violated all the normal concepts. The American view of economics may help business to increase current production or to lower current costs. But research and development are necessary for the future, and it is a gamble. Businessmen are risk averse. They hesitate to take the gamble on new developments. Therefore, if the magic invisible hand cannot drive the enterprise to new developments, the visible hand of the government must do so.” 15
One of his colleagues at MITI, K. Otabe, added: “If the theory of international trade were pursued to its ultimate conclusion, the United States would specialize in the production of autos and Japan in the production of tuna.” But this would not create wealth and good – paying jobs for Japan. Therefore, the Japanese government believed that creation of certain industries was “necessary to diversify and promote the development of the Japanese economy.”
But wasn’t Japan a member of the GATT? Didn’t it agree to reduce its protective tariffs as a condition of joining? Didn’t it believe in free trade just like the United States? The answers are yes, yes, and no. Japan did become a member of the GATT in 1955 (at American insistence, over the objections of most European countries), and it did reduce tariffs, even getting most of them to zero by the early 1980s, but it didn’t embrace free trade. Like the United States of the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth centuries, Japan adopted a mercantilist, catch – up strategy. The country it was catching up to was the United States. It offset its tariff reductions by selling the yen in order to maintain its undervaluation against the dollar.
Moreover, tariffs are not the only barriers to trade. They are not even the most important barriers. Customs officials can delay inspections; safety regulations can be designed to exclude certain imported products. Sales of products like autos require dealers. In the United States, by law, the dealers are independent and cannot be controlled by the auto companies. But in Japan, Toyota dealerships are owned by Toyota and sell only Toyotas. If you, as a new automaker in the Japanese market, must build out your own nationwide dealer network, the cost can be prohibitive. For example, the Korean automaker Hyundai is internationally quite competitive, yet it has withdrawn from the Japanese market. Despite being a member of the GATT and a major international trader, Japan maintained a substantially protected market for key products for a very long time.
Nor was it just Japan. The Japanese Miracle encouraged imitation. Singapore’s founding leader, Lee Kuan Yew, directed his officials to study Japan rather than focusing entirely on the United States or the United Kingdom for lessons on how to achieve rapid economic development.

* When a new chip introduced by a U.S. maker first came into the Japanese market, it would enjoy robust sales. But a bit later, the Japanese makers’ sales would soar while those of the U.S. makers would collapse. The Japanese, of course, claimed they weren’t copying the American chips and that the U.S. producers’ falling sales must be due to poor quality, late delivery, or some other flaw. In response, the U.S. makers noted that sometimes there were mistakes in their own chip designs and that the Japanese chips contained the same mistakes, demonstrating that they had indeed copied the U.S. chips.
In any case, this was another example of doing the opposite of what the Americans advised. The Japanese government and industry understood that semiconductors would be the critical components of much future technology and of many advanced products for both consumer and national security uses. Their experience had convinced them that the American faith in market – driven comparative advantage as a kind of law of nature was not necessarily valid. They had shown that they could create comparative advantage in chosen industries through a combination of government support and protection with industry effort and competition.

* whereas Americans like open spaces, open personalities, and open agreements openly arrived at, those terms are understood quite differently in Japan. There, one speaks not of open relationships but of close, tightly knit relationships, of loyalty to longtime suppliers even if their present prices are a bit higher than those being offered by a newcomer, of long – term relationships relationships rather than of the best deal today.

* We lost our machine tool industry [to Japan], our forging industry, our circuit board industry, much of our semiconductor equipment industry, much of our steel industry, our entire consumer electronics industry, most of our textile industry, and much of our auto industry.

* The main reason Washington could not convert Japan to its free trade faith was that the neoclassical Anglo – American doctrine was full of holes. This had been clear to the Japanese at least since the 1950s. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, it should have become clearer to the Anglophone world as well. Young economists like Paul Krugman, James Brander, Barbara Spencer, and Joseph Stiglitz had begun to question the assumptions underlying the divinity of that god. Krugman, who later received a Nobel Prize for his work, emphasized that much of world trade seemed to operate outside the theory — a discrepancy he attributed to the fact that the theory rested on shaky assumptions.
These assumptions include perfect competition (all markets are like that for wheat, in which no single producer or buyer can affect ultimate total production or final prices); eternal full employment; no costs attached to opening or closing factories; no costs for training new workers; no cross – border flows of investment; no costs of switching from production of one product (wine?) to another (cloth?); fixed exchange rates; no economies of scale (the more units of a product I make in a single factory, the lower the cost of each item); no technological innovation unique to one country; no increases in productivity; no spillovers of know – how from one industry to another; operation of factories at full capacity at all times; zero costs of entering or exiting a business; zero transportation costs; the ability of workers to switch instantaneously, with no need of training, and at no cost of moving from making, say, steel, to designing semiconductor chips; and finally, no offshoring of production (Ricardo had said in his original analysis that if British textile makers moved their factories to Portugal, his reasoning would not hold).

* Cambridge University economist Ha – Joon Chang takes the discussion another step forward, to perhaps its most critical point. In his book Bad Samaritans, he argues that a nation may decide to subsidize a given industry because it wants or needs more advanced technology, for reasons of either national security or greater productivity and economic welfare. 18 In other words, Chang totally disagrees with Herbert Stein that it makes no difference whether a nation writes poetry or produces semiconductors. Poetry may be uplifting to read, but it doesn’t put much bread on the table or defend against aggression. Chang argues, in fact, that economic development is largely about acquiring and mastering advanced technology; countries need manufacturing and new technology because it is in advanced manufacturing that the greatest productivity gains are made. And because unfettered market dynamics tend to favor the early developers of a technology, countries that wish to develop the same capability at a later date sometimes have to defy the market and provide government support, even if that entails short – to medium – term losses. Chang says it’s like going to school. You sacrifice present cost efficiency and income for future productivity and wealth.

* Despite the practical and theoretical evidence of the past two decades, and despite the growing phenomenon of offshoring of manufacturing — something both Ricardo and Hecksher/Ohlin/Stolper/Samuelson said would never happen — U.S. economics professors, members of the Council of Economic Advisors, economics pundits, officials such as the U.S. trade representative and the secretary of the treasury, and writers of economics textbooks have found it impossible to abandon the old – time religion. Krugman himself insisted that his work was only theoretical, and that in the real world, an orthodox free trade policy was still best because political lobbying would prevent any strategic trade policy from following a sensible course. Well, perhaps. But Krugman is not an expert on either politics or trade negotiation.

* in 2001, former IBM chief scientist and Sloan Foundation president Ralph Gomory and former American Economics Association president William Baumol wrote the book Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests. 20 It may be the most important unread book of all time.
Baumol and Gomory developed a series of models that more nearly approximated the reality of international trade by incorporating the effects not only of economies of scale but those of rapid technological changes and sudden shifts in productivity. Such a shift might arise, for example, when a company like, say, Intel places an advanced facility in a place like China. Unlike previous models, which incorporated only a few countries and products, the Baumol and Gomory model included large numbers of products and countries. It went far beyond Krugman in demonstrating how badly flawed the conventional wisdom is. Whereas the orthodox theory holds that there is only one win – win trade pattern, uniquely optimal for all trading partners, Gomory and Baumol found that there are many possible trading patterns, of which some are optimal for one party and others for the other parties, but that none is optimal for all parties at all times. In other words, while trade can sometimes be win – win, it is more frequently adversarial or zero sum (you win, I lose).
Again, think of Boeing and Airbus. A Boeing sale tends to be a gain for the United States and a loss for Europe; an Airbus sale is the reverse. (I know this is simplistic, but you get the point.) Depending on the relative economies of scale, levels of technology, rates of productivity, and industry or national strategy, any given country might produce amounts of a product that are not optimal for other trading partners. Take the classic case in which England produces all the cloth. Suppose the Portuguese came to see cloth as a high – growth market and wine, their area of comparative advantage, as a low – growth one. To ensure full employment for their rapidly growing population they might decide to kick – start cloth production with a subsidy, a ploy that eventually leads to much larger – scale production and lower costs in Portugal than in England, even without the subsidies, which have now been discounted. As the Portuguese take most of the global cloth business, they need so many workers that they turn their wine pressers into cloth makers. With no wine coming from Portugal and no work in the cloth mills, the British workers turn to wine making, precisely their area of comparative disadvantage. Here the introduction of economies of scale has turned the areas of specialization upside down, to the disadvantage of England and the global economy but possibly to Portugal’s advantage.
This example demonstrates another key Gomory – Baumol conclusion. Whether a country achieves large – scale production, innovation, or major jumps in productivity is largely unrelated to climate, geography, and national endowments like capital, land, and labor. Sometimes it results from a strategic choice to subsidize large – scale production. It may also come by serendipity — for example, if a Portuguese entrepreneur were to innovate the latest cloth fashion. The key point is that once achieved, economies of scale and technology innovations become barriers to entry for newcomers. Whether foreign or domestic, a new competitor will have to make an enormous investment to match the scale and technology of the dominant player.

Economies of scale are more likely to accrue if, for example, the government adopts a favorable regulatory policy, constructs supporting infrastructure, uses government procurement to provide an early market, provides a special tax incentive, or takes any of several other steps to foster an industry. Governments can also do a great deal to help companies attain and maintain market dominance, including spurring innovation. In the 1980s, Intel benefited greatly from the U.S. government’s Minute Man missile program, from strong U.S. protection of patents and intellectual property, and from U.S. anti – dumping and market – opening measures toward Japan. Because countries with large numbers of dominant producers tend to be more prosperous than other countries (such producers are profitable and pay good wages), national leaders often pursue interventionist policies aimed at helping producers in their countries attain and maintain dominance. The European Airbus program, Japan’s development of its shipbuilding, semiconductor, and other industries, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, China’s Made in China 2025 strategy, and the U.S. Sematech consortium are all examples.
As Baumol and Gomory showed, such national promotion programs are a key reason that the fundamental premise of free trade theory — that trade never hurts any trading partner — is also wrong. I have already noted the zero – sum character of the Boeing – Airbus duopoly. The ascendance of Korea’s semiconductor and semiconductor equipment makers tends to make Korea more prosperous at the expense of both the U.S. semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry and the U.S. economy. The stark reality is that global trade can easily be adversarial.

* Do we really want pure free trade in artificial intelligence technology today, knowing that the industry could someday be completely dominated by China or Russia? Probably not. Free trade cannot always trump national security, and the two are often not easily divided. In fact, based on their analysis of the many possible trade patterns for many trading partners, Gomory and Baumol found that a large share of trade fits into the adversarial, zero – sum category. For example, China’s subsidized exports of solar panels to the United States not only killed the U.S. solar industry’s sales but also its ability to maintain a competitive technological capability in a field it invented..

* Economists do know that what countries make tends to be both “path dependent,” meaning that what I make today is highly dependent on what I made yesterday, and subject to nonmarket intervention. Finland dominates global production of icebreaker ships. It has a long history of dealing with both ice and ships. Taiwan’s leadership in semiconductor foundries stems from the Taiwan government’s initial financial backing of entrepreneur and former Texas Instruments executive Morris Chang’s idea for the first such foundry in the 1990s. Economists also know that comparative advantage can be a handicap. Countries fated by climate, geography, or history to specialize in producing bananas, coffee, or potash are usually poor because people tend to use the same amount of these products regardless of the price, and costs tend to rise with greater production (diseconomies of scale). Free trade does not help these countries. It may do them harm as bananas (for example) from even poorer countries take over their markets.

* A favorite argument of the apostles of orthodoxy is that “companies compete, not countries.” The idea is that countries are all pals while corporations chartered by those countries duke it out. This argument has always baffled me. Have economists never heard of war? Of course countries compete, in a variety of ways, one of which is certainly economic. Power does not accrue to nations of taxi drivers. China had comparative advantages in tea, porcelain, and silk under its old regime, but it became a poor and weak country. It is powerful today because it changed the composition and structure of its economy, and it did so expressly in order to compete. The notion that we should not be concerned when certain countries gain an edge in the production of certain products and in the development of certain new technologies is romantic in the extreme. Do we not care if China becomes the dominant player in artificial intelligence or super – computing? Such technology involves leading – edge semiconductor materials and processing technology. Do we not care if we lose leadership in those technologies, which is exactly what happens when U.S. – based production and R&D close up shop and move to China or Singapore for better tax breaks or better engineers? Of course we care.

* One thing they need to know is that in lieu of a meaningful, enforceable international economic agreement, mercantilism works. No country has ever become rich except by mercantilist practices. Economic theory cannot predict innovation, and it therefore cannot tell a country how to become rich. Think of recent examples such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and China. None of them had many natural resources. None of them “did what the Americans said.” None of them adopted the “Washington consensus.”

* Leadership in key technologies like computer chips is not just an important matter for companies like Intel or Qualcomm. It is also important for national security, for both China and the free world. It would not be a positive development for the free world for all its countries to lose leadership in such an important technology. Countries do compete economically and technologically because they don’t share values, and they fear the forceful imposition of foreign doctrines and practices as well as the possible necessity to pay tribute of some kind.

* Finally, while there has been much talk of the gains of trade and the benefits of globalization, their costs have been ignored or downplayed. Typically, the analysis holds that while a few workers in an industry such as the auto industry may take a hit when imports take their jobs or reduce their wages, this loss is greatly outweighed by the benefits of lower prices to consumers, who far outnumber the autoworkers. Moreover, it is argued, the former autoworkers will find other jobs, so the net loss is only their wages for whatever period they were out of work and, of course, any continuing negative pay differential. There are several holes in this argument, but an important one is that the models used to analyze gains and losses of trade assume full employment. In the absence of full employment, loss of jobs in one industry tends to lower wages in other industries. Thus, the trade – off is not autoworker jobs versus all consumer prices, but all consumers versus all workers’ wages. That is not a slam – dunk for globalization. On top of that, the equations and models do not consider the global warming impact and cost of all the air travel and sea shipping entailed in globalization. Nor do they consider the cost to future innovation of the loss of important skill sets entailed by many aspects of today’s globalization.
Consider further the differences in the quality of pain and pleasure. Of course, it is nice to save a few dollars when buying shoes or a washing machine. But that pleasure does not equal the intensity of the complete loss of a job, or of a school system in a factory town when the factory closes. Moreover, the pleasure of inexpensive socks is fleeting, while the pain of the factory, school, and local water system going down is long lasting and has severe knock – on effects. These elements are never captured in the econometric models used to evaluate the gains and losses from trade, yet they are the most important elements. Look at the generations of costs incurred when a city like Detroit loses its businesses and its schools, and then its sanitation and much more, and consider that those costs are not just local. They ultimately hit the whole country.
Another way of considering the question is to look at the gap between rich and poor. It has widened dramatically in the United States and most other free world countries in lockstep with globalization. Even if there appear to be overall economic gains from globalization, the winners are clearly not compensating the losers, with the result that the society has become poorer even if the GDP numbers say it hasn’t. Some economists such as David Autor at MIT, Robert Scott at the Economic Policy Institute, David Dorn at the University of Zurich, and Gordon Hanson at the University of California – San Diego have recognized that neoclassical free trade and globalization doctrine is badly flawed and is a major factor in growing economic inequality and the rise of populism. But the mainstream of professional economists has yet to grasp reality. Because their models don’t incorporate the proper assumptions, the economists don’t see and therefore tend to reject these conclusions. But that doesn’t make the conclusions wrong.
Another key element never mentioned in the discussion of globalization is that investing in China, producing in China, and buying from China are all actions that directly strengthen the CCP and all of its activities, including the internment of Uighurs, the dredging and arming of artificial islands in the South China Sea, the attacks by Mainland Chinese students on Hong Kong students in Australia, and the spreading of propaganda through the distribution of China Daily via the Washington Post , and the recent denial of free speech and rule of law in Hong Kong. The total costs of all this and more that I could cite might make the price of “free trade” look like not such a great deal.
Indeed, a very important revelation of the COVID – 19 pandemic has been that of the true costs associated with the China – anchored global supply chain. Heretofore it was widely believed that the most efficient and cost – effective way to supply many world markets was to produce components in a variety of global locations, fly or ship them to China (or, increasingly, manufacture them in China) for assembly by inexpensive or specially talented (or both) Chinese labor, and then ship them by boat and airplane to the world’s markets. The coronavirus, along with China’s Made in China 2025 drive for making all cutting – edge high – tech products in China, has sparked a deep questioning of the true costs and rationality of the global supply chain. Excessive reliance on supply from China has been seen to carry potentially high costs with it. Needed products might not be available. Or, if China is angry with you, they might be withheld. In addition, the air and sea shipping inevitably involved account for about 8 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions — and that number is rising. The costs of this have never been incorporated into the pricing of the supply chain. In the future they must be, and they could be prohibitively high. As European Bank for Reconstruction and Development economist Beata Javorcik says: “The quest to find the most cost – effective suppliers has left many companies without a plan B. Businesses will be forced to rethink their global value chains.” 2 Because of this and also because of new technologies like three – dimensional printing (a ball bearing, for example, can be printed at the auto plant just like a book instead of being manufactured in a factory and then shipped to the auto plant), future supply chains are likely to be more diversified and located much closer to the place of final sale than has been the case for the past thirty years.

* Products and services freighted with national security significance cannot be valued on the same cost – benefit model as soybeans. The value of some things cannot be measured in terms of the dollar or yuan exchange. One of the best explanations of the decoupling urge has come from former Australian prime minister and China expert (and Mandarin speaker) Kevin Rudd. In a speech to Australia’s Lowy Institute on June 13, 2019, he argued that America’s first steps toward decoupling were not made by the Trump administration but by the Obama administration with its “pivot to Asia” policy.
More important, he noted, decoupling of the internet is occurring as a natural consequence of the two countries’ political systems, with other countries “increasingly caught in no – man’s land in between.” Digital payment systems like Alipay, WeChat Pay, Visa, and Master Card have already divided the world into different spheres of influence, and this division, he argued, is likely to widen in the digital global economy. Likewise, “the decoupling of the two countries’ telecommunications systems is also well under way.” But he added that these decouplings inevitably worry the managers of global supply chains and raise the notion that it might be safer to have alternative supply chains or perhaps no supply chains. And this, he noted, is before considering the likely economic, political, or strategic impact of artificial intelligence. “Are we,” he wondered, “at the beginning of the end of globalization?” Is the big question not where decoupling starts, but where it is likely to stop?

* Over the past century, the United States has made every effort to become and remain the leader in those kinds of technologies because it knows that not to do so would be extremely dangerous to the survival of itself and other like – minded countries. To cede this kind of leadership to a global supply chain in order that corporations might make a few million or even billion more dollars could turn out to be extremely expensive to the country and its ideals.
The second factor is that in order to remain at the cutting edge of key technologies it is not enough to have good universities and laboratories. Much technology evolves in the factory or workplace. It is an iterative process. Moreover, the more industries a country contains the more potential it will have for iteration, combinations of different ideas and skill sets, serendipity, and technological advance thereby. Economics does not have an equation for innovation, but we know that a variety of skills and means of production helps. To lose that for the sake, again, of a few immediate extra millions of profits entails huge ultimate losses.
Finally, there is the cost of the possible failure of the supply chain. This was never considered in the past. Big, sophisticated global corporations like Apple, Cisco, GM, and on and on never considered it, and neither did major governments like those of the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and on and on. But, since the advent of the coronavirus pandemic in mid – January 2020, we have begun to pay the heretofore hidden cost. It is and will be immense. Surely, there must be a better way.
Indeed, the better way has already been advancing. Over the past several years there has been a decline of global exports for three major reasons. First, as China has become increasingly autarkic, it has been making more and more of its total product domestically. Thus, the chain has been gradually dwindling to the link between the production base in China and the location of the consumer. China will continue to import raw materials, but not key components. Second, the popular picture of the Chinese part of the supply chain — millions of manual laborers painstakingly assembling parts by hand — is false. The assembly of Apple iPhones in China, for example, is highly automated, and the same goes for almost everything else made in China. Labor costs in China are no longer low, and for an increasingly large range of products they are not a decisive factor in the location of the supply chain. Much more decisive are the investment subsidies, absence of labor unions, and absence of meaningful environmental, health, and other regulations, combined with a managed currency exchange rate that keeps export prices competitive. The third and most important factor ending the role of the supply chain is the combination of automation, artificial intelligence, and technologies such as 3 – D printing that enable inexpensive production close to the customer.

* as Council on Foreign Relations China expert Elizabeth Economy says in her book The Third Revolution, China has become less liberal, more centralized, and more authoritarian as it has become richer and more powerful in recent years. 2 It is also clear that there is no comfortable middle ground. The more one invests and produces in China, the more one feeds the CCP – dominated machine while making oneself hostage to coercion by the Party.

* The openness of U.S. society combined with the tightly closed nature of China enables Beijing to exploit American openness in ways that undermine free world values generally, and American economic, technological, and military strength specifically. To offset this dynamic, we must adopt the simple principle of reciprocity.
If the New York Times cannot be distributed in China, the CCP should not be allowed to own newspapers in America. If Amazon is limited in China’s market, Alibaba should be similarly limited in the U.S. market. If GE will have to move its avionics division into a joint venture with state – owned Avic, Washington will halt the move unless Avic drops state ownership and enters into joint development, production, and sales ventures with Boeing and Airbus for its planned new aircraft. Just as U.S. universities, nonprofits, and religious organizations are restricted in China, so Confucius Institutes and Chinese Student and Scholar Associations will be restricted or banned in the United States.
In October 2019, the Trump administration adopted a policy of requiring all Chinese diplomats to notify the State Department before meeting with American local or state officials or with educational and research institutions. This was in response to China’s long – standing requirement that U.S. diplomats get permission from Beijing before traveling inside the country or meeting with local officials and academics. The U.S. rule is not as restrictive as China’s policy, but it is a step in the right direction, and further such steps should be considered so that U.S. policy essentially mirrors that of China.
Chinese entities wishing to operate in the United States should be required to clear the same hurdles as free world entities wishing to operate in China. The same should apply to entities from other nonmarket economies. All investors from China and other nonmarket economies must be required to provide detailed data on their ownership structure, their investors’ and decision makers’ past and present political affiliations with the Communist Party, and their funding sources. Chinese – owned publications, educational programs, cultural exchange operations, and editorial contributors must be required prominently to disclose their funding or other ties to the CCP and the Chinese government. The disclosure would read something like this: “WE ARE FUNDED BY AND LINKED TO THE UNITED FRONT WORK DEPARTMENT OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY.” The same rule must hold for entities such as the Confucius Institutes, Chinese Student and Scholar Associations, and all others that are engaged in presenting China to the U.S. public. The U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act must be upgraded so that it applies to these groups. The current act, which contains exemptions for religious, scholastic, or scientific groups such as the Confucius Institutes purport to be, must be broadened to encompass all avenues of propaganda and influence.
In addition, representatives of corporations and organizations that do extensive business with China should be required to disclose this whenever they discuss China or the U.S. – China relationship in public. For example, the heads of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and of the Business Roundtable often present themselves as the “voices of American business.” But many of their members are tightly tied to China and vulnerable to pressure from Beijing.

* Many free world corporations now understand that their overreliance on manufacturing in China is a serious vulnerability and are already trying to move at least some future production to other locations.

* One alarming example is that a high percentage of the ingredients in drugs and much medical equipment widely used in America are now largely produced in China. Again, the pandemic has demonstrated why this is not wise or economically healthy for America. First, it imposes a strategic vulnerability on America, and second, China’s regulation of medical materials production, storing, and shipping is shockingly lax. There are many instances of major harm resulting from contaminated drugs in China. It is dangerous for America to be so reliant on China for medicines and medical materials.

* The other major part (actually more major than China) of the problem is the United States, which has steadily lost economic, industrial, technological, and governance competitiveness over the past fifty years. To some degree this was inevitable and even desirable as other countries recovered from World War II and as formerly underdeveloped countries like South Korea, Singapore, and China got on the path to development. But to a very large degree, America’s loss of leadership has come from poor, sometimes simply wrong, short – term – oriented, ill – coordinated, and often narrow and even selfish government, business, military, and academic policies. In short, Americans haven’t been playing the game as well as the Germans, Japanese, South Koreans, or Chinese. The most important step is therefore to raise the American game.

Grok says about this 2001 book Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests:

The authors challenge the assumption that free trade always leads to mutual benefits for all nations. They argue that in modern economies, trade can create significant conflicts of interest between countries, especially when industries are concentrated, and productivity improvements or technological advancements shift competitive advantages.

Modern Trade Dynamics: Unlike classical models focused on fixed endowments (e.g., land or labor), the book highlights how trade today involves manufactured goods, where economies of scale, innovation, and government policies play critical roles. This can lead to outcomes where one nation’s gain comes at another’s expense.

Trade Models Adapted: Gomory and Baumol develop mathematical models to show that under free trade, there are often multiple equilibrium outcomes, not a single optimal one. Some equilibria favor certain nations over others, leading to potential conflicts.

Policy Implications: The book suggests that nations may pursue policies (e.g., subsidies or tariffs) to secure favorable trade positions, as purely free trade doesn’t guarantee universal benefits. It emphasizes the need for strategic trade policies to protect national interests.

Origin: The book builds on lectures Baumol gave at the London School of Economics in 1994, later expanded with Gomory’s insights from his work on technology and trade.

Context and Reception:

The book was aimed at economists and policymakers but didn’t gain widespread public attention outside academic circles.

It’s part of the Lionel Robbins Lectures series, reflecting its academic rigor.

The analysis is grounded in free trade but critiques its oversimplified benefits, offering a nuanced view of globalization’s challenges.

Please give me a list of the most famous economists who had some doubts about the free trade orthodoxy.

Grok said:

Several renowned economists have expressed skepticism or nuanced doubts about the unqualified benefits of free trade, challenging the orthodoxy that it always leads to optimal economic outcomes. Below is a list of some of the most famous economists who have voiced such concerns, along with brief explanations of their views:

Adam Smith (1723–1790)
Doubts: While Smith is often associated with free market principles, he acknowledged limitations to unrestricted trade. In The Wealth of Nations, he supported certain protections, like tariffs, to defend infant industries or counter foreign subsidies. He also recognized national security concerns, such as supporting the Navigation Acts to maintain a strong British navy.

Context: Smith’s skepticism was pragmatic, balancing free trade with strategic economic and security interests.

David Ricardo (1772–1823)
Doubts: Ricardo developed the theory of comparative advantage, a cornerstone of free trade advocacy. However, he expressed concerns about the distributional effects of trade, noting that landlords might gain disproportionately while workers could suffer. He also worried about diminishing returns in agriculture, which could complicate trade benefits.

Context: His doubts focused on the uneven impacts of trade across social classes rather than rejecting free trade outright.

John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946)
Doubts: Keynes initially supported free trade but later advocated for selective protectionism during economic crises. In the 1930s, amid the Great Depression, he argued for tariffs and managed trade to stabilize economies, protect jobs, and address balance-of-payments issues. He believed unrestricted free trade could exacerbate unemployment and economic instability in certain contexts.

Context: His shift reflected a focus on macroeconomic stability over ideological commitment to free trade.

Joseph Stiglitz (b. 1943)
Doubts: Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate, has criticized the way free trade agreements are implemented, arguing they often favor multinational corporations and developed nations over developing countries. He highlights issues like asymmetric benefits, labor displacement, and environmental costs, advocating for fairer trade policies that account for market imperfections.

Context: His work, such as Globalization and Its Discontents, emphasizes the need for trade policies that prioritize equitable outcomes.

Paul Krugman (b. 1953)
Doubts: Another Nobel laureate, Krugman is known for his work on trade theory, including the New Trade Theory, which acknowledges that economies of scale and imperfect competition can justify strategic trade policies. While generally pro-trade, he has expressed concerns about the adverse effects of globalization on certain communities, such as job losses in manufacturing sectors, and the need for policies to mitigate these impacts.

Context: Krugman’s skepticism centers on the real-world complexities of trade, including its distributional consequences.

Ha-Joon Chang (b. 1963)
Doubts: Chang, a prominent development economist, argues that free trade can hinder industrialization in developing countries. In books like Kicking Away the Ladder, he contends that developed nations historically used protectionist policies to grow their economies before preaching free trade to others. He advocates for selective protectionism to nurture infant industries.

Context: His critique focuses on the historical and developmental inequalities perpetuated by free trade orthodoxy.

Dani Rodrik (b. 1957)
Doubts: Rodrik has been a vocal skeptic of hyper-globalization, arguing that unrestricted free trade can undermine national sovereignty, labor standards, and economic stability. He emphasizes the “trilemma” of global integration, democracy, and national autonomy, suggesting that countries may need to prioritize domestic policies over unfettered trade.

Context: His work, such as The Globalization Paradox, calls for a balanced approach to trade that respects national priorities.

Notes:
These economists do not outright reject free trade but highlight its limitations, such as uneven benefits, labor market disruptions, or the need for strategic interventions. Their critiques often focus on real-world complexities like market imperfections, historical context, or distributional impacts.

Ralph Gomory, the former IBM chief scientist and Sloan Foundation president, and William J. Baumol, former American Economics Association president, wrote:

* In [David] Ricardo’s time trade is estimated to have constituted about 1 percent of world GDP. Since then, despite exploding world output, the volume of trade relative to GDP has risen more than thirteenfold.

* Advantages based on natural resources still exist, as they did when England specialized in wool and Portugal in wine, but more dominant today are advantages that can be acquired. These can be the advantages conferred by being established in an industry and gaining thereby either specialized knowledge or economies of scale or scope. There is also the possibility, in industries where knowledge is easily transferred, and where economies of scale are not significant, of dispersing production around the world to use cheap labor or other special advantages, and then to exploit the cheapness of modern transportation to deliver these goods to global markets.

* one might conclude that the location of economic activity today no longer matters since international companies can repatriate their profits from whatever part of the globe houses their actual economic activities. However, in almost all cases, most of the economic benefit stays where the value is added. Profits are usually only a small portion of the value added through economic activity, and most of the value added, such as wages, remains local. It matters to a country to be the site of an economic activity, whoever may own the company.

Although the countries do not compete directly, in the way companies do, the amount of economic activity actually taking place within their borders is vital. As we will see in this book, it is vital not only for those engaged in a particular industry who may experience the up and downs of activity directly but also for the country as a whole.

* Some of the truths most dear to the hearts of economists are those that clash with the practical intuition of those not trained in the field. It does not require special training to see that foreign competition can put some domestic jobs in danger, or that once vibrant home-grown industries sometimes succumb to foreign competitors who can make the goods they once produced more cheaply or better. International trade sometimes leads to the contraction or even loss of some industries, even significant ones such as automobiles or consumer electronics, and can therefore cause hardship and unemployment. But economists generally maintain that such localized pain is more than compensated for by the availability of better automobiles or compact disc players to the large consuming public.

* improvement in one country’s productive capabilities is attainable only at the expense of another country’s general welfare. An improvement in the productive capability of a trading partner that allows it to compete effectively with a home-country industry, instead of benefiting the public as a whole, may come at the expense of that home country overall. And this harm is not the localized damage previously mentioned, loss of jobs in the immediately affected industry, but an adverse effect that is felt throughout the home
country.

* Why should a country be satisfied with the current state of affairs if it can see a way to do better?

* among the multitude of stable outcomes, those that are best for one country tend to be disadvantageous for its trading partner.

* And we mean that it is disadvantageous for its trading partner in a very wide sense. It is a sense that takes into account not only the local effects on individual industries but also the wider effects on the entire national population. It is in this sense that we find that there is inherent conflict in international trade.

* Thus countries today can change their circumstances and can acquire (or lose) industries through rapid alterations of their capabilities in industries that do not have high entry costs. This can lead to a new outcome in international trade. The possibility of such changes and such new outcomes is another and different source of multiple
outcomes.

Remarkably enough, the resulting different outcomes obey the same simple laws as those that govern the case of high entry cost and largescale operations. Once again, we will find inherent conflict in the countrywide interests of trading partners. Once again, the outcome that is best for one country tends not to be good for another. Once again, a
multitude of possible outcomes become a possible source of conflict in international trade.

* If the operation of free markets in the global economy always produced a unique and relatively predictable outcome for the interrelated economic affairs of nations, then there would be little that anyone could do to change it. That predestined balance of economic forces would represent our unavoidable destiny. Directed by the market’s Invisible
Hand, we would be fated to produce, trade, and prosper, all in a strictly choreographed international pattern. We could study, describe, and write about the details of that fate, but in the end we would either have to accept it or fundamentally reject the guidance of the free market. If, in addition, there were grounds for believing this destiny to be dependably beneficial—always serving not only the economic interests of the world as a whole but also each of the countries that compose it—then the uniqueness and inevitability of that outcome would be reassuring rather than inhibiting or threatening. This fortunate state of affairs, in which we are only deprived of the ability to tinker with something that is already for the best, is just what classical trade theory may lead us to expect.

* The development of a new industry is slow, involves a long time and large-scale effort, and is beset with risk.

* Retainability means that a country with many industries can hold on to them even though the wage in this many-industry country may be very high. As we will see in more detail in the next chapter, if a country is producing more than its population’s share of the world’s commodities, it will have a high income and, usually, a high standard of living. If it produces a large share of the world’s goods, it has much to consume and much to trade. It becomes a high-wage, high-consumption country.

* a country that finds itself frozen out of most industries and is unable to enter will find itself with little to consume that is produced at home and little to trade to obtain goods from abroad.

* When a significant number of industries are retainable, there are always equilibrium outcomes that leave some countries worse off than they would be if they were to seal themselves off from trade altogether.

* the patterns of industrial production resulting from international trade affect the standard of living of everyone in the countries involved. The success or failure of an industry shifts the equilibrium outcome. The result is not of parochial interest only to the companies or the industry directly involved, but, also, to the country as a whole because of its effect on national income.

* While the governments of some nations have successfully organized, cajoled, and even forced their home enterprises into entering existent retainable industries, most such efforts have not succeeded. Those that have achieved their goals are countries with a strong tradition of powerful government and an unambiguous history of industrial policy,
plus a skilled and prestigious bureaucracy, able to carry out that policy. This is a set of circumstances that seems far from the conditions that prevail in the United States. Indeed, the U.S. tradition runs in the opposite direction: It has had no conscious industrial policy, and its government bureaucracy has, with some exceptions, never aspired to a
close, cooperative relationship with industry outside of the arena of national defense. Even if it were desirable, a path of very active government guidance of and collaboration with industry is probably unworkable for the United States.

Grok says:

To analyze Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests by Ralph E. Gomory and William J. Baumol (2001) in light of John J. Mearsheimer’s essay on war, we need to explore how the economic arguments in Gomory and Baumol’s work intersect with the realist perspective on international politics and war articulated by Mearsheimer. Both texts address the competitive nature of international relations, but they focus on different domains: Gomory and Baumol examine economic trade dynamics, while Mearsheimer emphasizes security and military conflict. Below, I will compare their core arguments, highlight synergies and tensions, and assess how their perspectives illuminate the interplay between economic competition and the potential for war in a multipolar world.

Overview of Key Arguments

Mearsheimer’s Essay on War

Mearsheimer’s essay, rooted in realist international relations theory, argues that international politics is inherently competitive and conflict-prone due to the anarchic structure of the international system, where no higher authority exists to protect states. Key points include:

War as a Central Feature of International Politics: War is a perennial danger because states prioritize survival in a self-help system. The absence of a global enforcer means states must compete for power to ensure security, leading to security dilemmas where one state’s gain in military capability threatens others.

Politics as Competitive and Potentially Violent: Politics, both domestic and international, is a “contact sport” driven by clashing interests and values. In international anarchy, these conflicts can escalate to war, as states fear existential threats and shifting power balances.

Escalation Dynamics: Limited wars tend to escalate into total wars due to political passions (e.g., nationalism), military preferences for decisive victories, and the dynamics of war itself (e.g., victory disease, inadvertent escalation). This is particularly dangerous in the nuclear age.

Realist Lens: Mearsheimer critiques liberal theories that downplay military factors, arguing that survival concerns trump economic, legal, or moral considerations. States may initiate wars (preventive or opportunistic) if they perceive threats to their security, regardless of international norms.

Gomory and Baumol’s Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests

Gomory and Baumol challenge classical trade theories (e.g., Ricardo’s comparative advantage) by incorporating modern economic realities like economies of scale and rapid productivity changes. Their key arguments include:

Multiple Trade Outcomes: Unlike classical models that predict a single, mutually beneficial trade equilibrium based on natural advantages, modern trade produces multiple stable outcomes due to economies of scale, high entry costs, and acquired skills. These outcomes vary in their impact on national welfare.

Inherent Conflicts in Trade: The best economic outcomes for one country often harm its trading partners. For instance, a developed country benefits from aiding underdeveloped nations until they reach a competitive threshold, after which their industrial gains reduce the developed country’s welfare.

National Interests and Competition: A country’s prosperity depends on the success of its industries in global trade. Developed nations must compete vigorously against peers (e.g., the U.S. against Japan or Germany) to maintain economic advantages, as losing industries to rivals diminishes national welfare.

Policy Implications: Countries can influence trade outcomes through policies like protecting infant industries or investing in infrastructure. The authors are not protectionist but argue that strategic interventions can secure better outcomes in a world where market forces alone do not guarantee optimal results.

Synergies Between the Two Works

Both Mearsheimer and Gomory/Baumol emphasize the competitive nature of international interactions and the centrality of national interests, albeit in different spheres. Their arguments align in several ways:

Competition as a Core Feature:

Mearsheimer views international politics as a zero-sum struggle for power, where states compete to ensure survival. Similarly, Gomory and Baumol argue that global trade is not always a positive-sum game; one country’s economic gain can come at another’s expense, especially among developed nations.

Both reject liberal assumptions of harmony. Mearsheimer critiques liberal theories that predict the obsolescence of war, while Gomory and Baumol challenge the classical trade model’s assumption that free trade always benefits all nations equally.

National Interests Over Global Good:

Mearsheimer asserts that states prioritize survival over moral or legal norms, leading to actions like preventive wars. Gomory and Baumol argue that countries pursue trade outcomes that maximize national welfare, even if it harms trading partners, suggesting a parallel focus on self-interest.

For example, Mearsheimer notes that states may violate international law to enhance security (p. 10). Similarly, Gomory and Baumol suggest that countries may use protectionist measures or industrial policies to secure retainable industries, prioritizing national prosperity over free-market ideals (pp. 8, 65-67).

Structural Constraints:

Mearsheimer’s anarchic international system, lacking a higher authority, drives security competition (p. 13). Gomory and Baumol’s trade model, where market forces preserve multiple outcomes rather than selecting a single optimal one, creates a structural environment where countries must actively compete to avoid unfavorable equilibria (pp. 7-8).

Both frameworks highlight the absence of an automatic mechanism ensuring mutual benefit, whether in security (no global enforcer) or trade (no guaranteed optimal trade outcome).

Potential for Conflict:

Mearsheimer explicitly links political competition to war, noting that disputes can escalate due to nationalism or military dynamics (pp. 29-35). Gomory and Baumol imply that economic competition can strain relations, particularly when a country’s industrial losses threaten its economic base, potentially escalating into broader conflicts (pp. 24, 41-42).

For instance, the loss of key industries (e.g., U.S. semiconductors to Japan) could weaken a state’s economic power, which Mearsheimer would argue translates into reduced military capability, heightening security concerns and the risk of conflict.

Tensions and Differences

While there are synergies, the two works diverge in focus, assumptions, and implications, revealing tensions when applying economic trade dynamics to a realist security framework.

Domain of Analysis:

Mearsheimer focuses on military power and war, viewing economic factors as secondary to security concerns. He argues that political considerations “invariably trump economic, legal, and moral considerations” (p. 36). Gomory and Baumol focus exclusively on economic welfare, with no direct discussion of military conflict.

This creates a tension: Mearsheimer might argue that economic competition, as described by Gomory and Baumol, is subordinate to security imperatives. For example, a state might sacrifice economic gains to bolster military alliances or avoid dependence on a rival for critical industries.

Conflict Outcomes:

Mearsheimer sees conflict as potentially catastrophic, culminating in war that threatens state survival (pp. 13-14). Gomory and Baumol’s conflicts are economic, resulting in reduced national welfare (e.g., lower GDP per capita) but not existential threats (pp. 24-26).

However, economic losses could indirectly fuel Mearsheimer’s security dilemmas. For instance, if the U.S. loses its semiconductor industry to China, as Gomory and Baumol warn (pp. 67-68), this could weaken its technological edge, prompting a security-driven response, such as trade restrictions or military buildup, aligning with Mearsheimer’s escalation dynamics.

Role of Cooperation:

Mearsheimer acknowledges limited cooperation among great powers (e.g., U.S.-Soviet nonproliferation efforts) but emphasizes its fragility in the shadow of security competition (p. 15). Gomory and Baumol highlight cooperative potential in trade, particularly when developed nations aid underdeveloped ones, creating mutual gains until a competitive threshold is reached (pp. 37, 59-60).

This difference suggests that economic cooperation might mitigate tensions in Mearsheimer’s framework, but only temporarily. For example, U.S. aid to India (a zone of mutual gains, per Gomory and Baumol, p. 61) could strengthen bilateral ties, but as India’s industries grow, Mearsheimer’s logic predicts rising security competition if India becomes a great power.

Policy Prescriptions:

Mearsheimer implies that states should prioritize military preparedness and strategic alliances to deter threats, with economic policies serving security goals (e.g., avoiding dependence on rivals). Gomory and Baumol advocate for economic policies like government support for retainable industries (e.g., U.S. Sematech, p. 67) to secure favorable trade outcomes.

These prescriptions can conflict. For instance, Gomory and Baumol’s call for competing vigorously against developed rivals like Japan (p. 5) might lead to trade wars, which Mearsheimer would see as risking escalation into military conflict, especially if economic losses threaten a state’s power base.

Interplay Between Economic Competition and War

Combining the insights of both works reveals a deeper understanding of how economic competition in trade can intersect with the potential for war in a multipolar world, as outlined in Mearsheimer’s essay.

Economic Power as a Foundation for Military Power:

Mearsheimer notes that great powers like China and Russia emerged by 2017 due to their “sufficient economic and military capabilities” (p. 7). Gomory and Baumol’s analysis suggests that economic strength, driven by industrial success in global trade, is a prerequisite for such capabilities.

For example, China’s rise as a great power, which Mearsheimer attributes to its economic growth (p. 7), aligns with Gomory and Baumol’s observation that countries can acquire industries through productivity gains (pp. 9-10). However, this growth can harm trading partners like the U.S., creating economic tensions that, per Mearsheimer, could escalate into security competition or war if the U.S. perceives China as an existential threat.

Trade Conflicts as Catalysts for Security Dilemmas:

Gomory and Baumol’s “zone of conflict” (pp. 37, 60), where one country’s industrial gains harm another, mirrors Mearsheimer’s security dilemma, where one state’s military buildup threatens others (p. 14). Economic losses in key industries (e.g., U.S. steel or semiconductors) could prompt protectionist measures or sanctions, which rivals might interpret as hostile, triggering a spiral of retaliation.

For instance, U.S. efforts to retain its semiconductor industry (Gomory and Baumol, p. 67) could lead to trade restrictions on China, which China might counter with cyberattacks or military posturing in the South China Sea, aligning with Mearsheimer’s escalation dynamics (pp. 29-35).

Nationalism and Economic Competition:

Mearsheimer highlights nationalism as a driver of escalation, fueling hatred and pushing states toward total war (pp. 29-30). Gomory and Baumol’s emphasis on national welfare and industrial success can amplify nationalist sentiments, especially if a country perceives foreign competition as a threat to its economic identity.

For example, Japan’s dominance in automobiles (Gomory and Baumol, p. 17) in the 1980s sparked U.S. nationalist rhetoric about “saving American jobs,” which could have escalated into broader political or military tensions if Japan were a strategic rival, as Mearsheimer’s framework suggests.

Strategic Implications in a Multipolar World:

Mearsheimer’s multipolar world (post-2017, p. 7) increases the likelihood of great power competition, as China, Russia, and the U.S. vie for dominance. Gomory and Baumol’s analysis suggests that economic competition among these powers will intensify, as each seeks to secure retainable industries and avoid unfavorable trade outcomes.

This dual competition (economic and military) could create flashpoints. For instance, Russia’s economic dependence on energy exports, if threatened by U.S. or Chinese industrial policies, could prompt aggressive actions (e.g., in Ukraine), aligning with Mearsheimer’s view of war as a response to perceived threats (p. 10).

Critical Assessment

The synergy between Mearsheimer’s and Gomory/Baumol’s frameworks highlights the interconnectedness of economic and security competition in international relations. Economic losses in trade, as Gomory and Baumol describe, can weaken a state’s power base, triggering security concerns that Mearsheimer argues drive war. However, their differing focuses create blind spots:

Mearsheimer’s Oversight of Economic Drivers: Mearsheimer’s realist lens downplays economic competition as a direct cause of conflict, focusing instead on military power. Gomory and Baumol’s work suggests that trade conflicts can independently strain relations, even absent immediate security threats, by undermining national welfare and fueling political unrest.

Gomory and Baumol’s Silence on Security: Their economic model does not address how trade disputes might escalate into military conflict, a gap Mearsheimer fills. For example, their recommendation for vigorous competition among developed nations (p. 5) could exacerbate tensions in ways they do not explore, such as through trade wars or resource competition.

Together, the works suggest that economic and security policies must be integrated to manage risks in a multipolar world. For instance, the U.S. could pursue Gomory and Baumol’s strategy of supporting retainable industries (e.g., semiconductors) while aligning with Mearsheimer’s emphasis on maintaining military superiority to deter rivals. However, this dual approach risks escalation if not carefully managed, as aggressive economic policies could provoke retaliatory actions that spiral into conflict.

Conclusion

Gomory and Baumol’s Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests complements Mearsheimer’s essay by illustrating how economic competition in global trade mirrors the security competition central to realist theory. Both works underscore the zero-sum elements of international relations, where national interests drive states to prioritize their own welfare or survival, often at the expense of others. While Gomory and Baumol focus on economic outcomes and Mearsheimer on war, their arguments converge on the need for strategic action to navigate a competitive world. However, their integration reveals that economic disputes can amplify security dilemmas, increasing the risk of escalation in a multipolar system. Policymakers must balance economic and military strategies to secure national interests while minimizing the potential for conflict, a challenge made more acute by the complex interplay of trade and war in the modern era.

The case for protecting certain industries for national well-being reminds me of the case for raising children in a safe space, sheltered for their first 18 years in a type of cocoon, like Orthodox Jews do. Parents can choose their children’s likely peers by where the parents choose to live, the lives they lead, the schools they send their kids to. This might be the most profound way that parental choices shape kids. Some kids might be best off raised in a cocoon. Many of the NBA’s best white players grew up without much childhood black competition that might have shattered their confidence early on as the black players matured more quickly and possibly bullied them.

Grok says:

Parents, by choosing where to live, what schools to send their kids to, and what values to instill, create a controlled environment to nurture their children’s development. This is especially pronounced in communities like Orthodox Jews, where cultural and religious practices tightly regulate social interactions, education, and peer groups. The goal is to foster confidence, skills, and identity in a safe space, shielding kids from external pressures—whether societal, cultural, or competitive—that might derail their growth.

Just as nations protect retainable industries to ensure long-term economic success, parents may shelter children to build resilience, self-esteem, or specific talents before they face the broader, often harsher world. The trade-off is similar: too much protection might limit adaptability, but too little could expose them to overwhelming challenges too soon.

The NBA Example: Confidence and Competition

Your point about white NBA players growing up in environments with less early competition from Black peers is a compelling case study. Basketball is a sport where physical maturity, athleticism, and confidence play massive roles, especially during adolescence. Black players, on average, may mature physically earlier (due to genetic or environmental factors), potentially dominating youth competitions. This could intimidate or discourage white players who might otherwise develop into elite talents, especially if they face bullying or social pressure in hyper-competitive settings.

By growing up in a “cocoon”—say, suburban or less diverse communities with strong youth programs but less intense early competition—some white players may have preserved their confidence and honed their skills in a supportive environment. Players like Dirk Nowitzki (Germany), Steve Nash (Canada), or Nikola Jokić (Serbia) often developed in systems emphasizing fundamentals over raw athleticism, allowing them to build unique skill sets (e.g., shooting, playmaking) without being overwhelmed by physical competition early on. Once mature, these players could compete at the highest levels, their confidence intact.

This mirrors the retainable industry argument: shielding a developing entity (an industry or a child) from premature competition allows it to cultivate strengths that enable it to thrive later in a global or adult arena. However, the cocoon must eventually open—industries must face global markets, and kids must navigate the broader world. The key is timing and preparation.

Broader Implications and Trade-Offs

Both cases highlight the tension between protection and exposure:

Protection’s Benefits: For industries, it preserves jobs, innovation, and national wealth. For kids, it builds confidence, skills, and identity. Orthodox Jewish communities, for instance, produce tightly knit, high-achieving individuals by controlling peer groups and environments. Similarly, less competitive youth sports settings can nurture talents who might otherwise be discouraged.

Protection’s Risks: Over-sheltering can stunt adaptability. Industries overly reliant on subsidies may fail when exposed to global markets. Kids raised in too insular an environment might struggle with diverse or high-pressure settings later (e.g., college, professional sports). The NBA example suggests that while a cocoon helped some players, they still needed to develop resilience to compete at the professional level against diverse, elite talent.

National vs. Individual Choices: Nations choose which industries to protect based on strategic interests (e.g., tech over agriculture). Parents choose environments based on values or goals (e.g., academic success, athletic development). Both involve prioritizing certain outcomes over others, often with long-term consequences.

Addressing Your Point About Peer Selection

You’re absolutely right that parental choices about peers—via location, schools, or lifestyle—are among the most profound ways to shape kids. Peers influence behavior, aspirations, and self-perception. In the NBA case, parents who moved to areas with strong basketball programs but less intense racial or physical competition may have inadvertently (or deliberately) given their kids a developmental edge. This isn’t unique to race; it’s about matching a child’s environment to their needs. A musically gifted child might thrive in a performing arts school but flounder in a rough public school where arts are deprioritized.

The Orthodox Jewish example is apt: by living in tight-knit communities and sending kids to yeshivas, parents ensure peers reinforce shared values and academic rigor. This can produce exceptional outcomes (e.g., high representation in professions like law or medicine) but may limit exposure to diverse perspectives, just as protected industries may struggle with global innovation if too insular.

Conclusion

The case for protecting retainable industries parallels the case for raising kids in a sheltered environment. Both aim to nurture strengths in a controlled setting to ensure long-term success against tougher competition. Your NBA example illustrates how avoiding early, potentially confidence-shattering competition can allow talents to flourish, much like protecting an industry from foreign rivals until it’s ready to compete globally. However, both require balancing protection with eventual exposure to ensure adaptability. Parental choices about peers and environments are indeed a powerful tool, shaping kids’ trajectories just as national policies shape economies. The challenge lies in knowing when to open the cocoon—too early, and the entity falters; too late, and it may lack resilience.

Is it true that the more east-asian a school becomes in the US, some white kids don’t want to compete with asians in the hard sciences, and they leave the school for a less-challenging, less-asian one?

Grok says:

Some studies and anecdotal reports suggest that in highly competitive schools with significant East Asian student populations, academic pressure can intensify, particularly in STEM fields. East Asian cultural emphasis on academic achievement, rigorous study habits, and parental expectations often leads to high performance in math and science. For example, a 2018 study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Asian-American students are disproportionately represented in advanced STEM courses and competitions, often outperforming peers due to cultural and systemic factors like supplementary education (e.g., tutoring or after-school programs).

This environment can create perceptions of heightened competition. Some white students (or parents) might feel discouraged if they believe they can’t keep up, though this is more about individual responses to pressure than race inherently. A 2014 article in Education Week noted that in some diverse, high-achieving districts, white families occasionally transfer to less competitive schools, citing “stress” or “fit,” but the data didn’t explicitly tie this to East Asian demographics. It’s also worth noting that school choice often correlates with socioeconomic factors, not just academic rigor.

On the flip side, many white students thrive in these environments, and diversity can foster resilience and collaboration. The “white flight” narrative risks oversimplification—students leave schools for various reasons, including lifestyle preferences, cost, or broader cultural discomfort, not just academic competition.

What typically happens when a public school or neighborhood tips east-asian? Is there white flight?

Grok says:

When a public school or neighborhood in the U.S. becomes predominantly East Asian, several dynamics can emerge, influenced by socioeconomic, cultural, and academic factors. The concept of “tipping” refers to a demographic shift where a group, in this case, East Asian residents or students, becomes a significant or dominant presence, potentially altering the area’s character or perception. Below, I outline what typically happens, addressing the question of “white flight” and other outcomes, based on available evidence and patterns.

1. Demographic and Cultural Shifts

Neighborhood Changes: As East Asian families move into a neighborhood, often drawn by strong schools, affordable housing, or cultural networks, the area may develop ethnic enclaves. For example, places like Cupertino, CA, or parts of Flushing, NY, have seen significant East Asian (e.g., Chinese, Korean, Indian) populations, leading to businesses, restaurants, and community centers catering to these groups. This can enhance cultural vibrancy but may also change the neighborhood’s identity, which some long-term residents might find jarring.

School Composition: Public schools in these areas often reflect the neighborhood’s demographics. Schools may see an influx of East Asian students, who frequently excel academically due to cultural emphasis on education, parental involvement, and supplementary learning (e.g., tutoring, Kumon). For instance, a 2019 report from the U.S. Department of Education showed that Asian-American students made up over 50% of enrollment in some high-performing California districts like Fremont and Irvine.

2. Academic Environment

Increased Competition: East Asian students often perform strongly in STEM subjects, advanced placement (AP) courses, and extracurriculars like math or science competitions. A 2018 National Bureau of Economic Research study highlighted that Asian-American students are overrepresented in STEM fields and selective programs, often due to rigorous preparation. This can raise the academic bar, creating a perception of intense competition.

School Reputation: Schools may gain reputations as “high-achieving” or “rigorous,” attracting more ambitious families (including non-Asian ones) but potentially intimidating others who feel their children can’t compete. This perception can influence enrollment decisions.

3. White Flight: Does It Happen?

The term “white flight” historically describes white families leaving areas due to the arrival of minority groups, often tied to racial or economic concerns. In the context of East Asian demographic shifts, the evidence is mixed and nuanced:

Limited Evidence of Classic White Flight: Unlike historical white flight driven by Black or Hispanic integration, East Asian influxes are less likely to trigger mass exodus. East Asian families often move into middle- or upper-middle-class areas with strong schools, where property values remain stable or rise. A 2017 study in Urban Studies found that Asian population growth in suburban areas was associated with increased property values, reducing economic incentives for white families to leave.

Selective Out-Migration: Some white families may leave, but it’s often tied to specific concerns rather than overt racial animus. These include:

Academic Pressure: Parents might perceive the school environment as too competitive or stressful. A 2014 Education Week article noted that in some diverse, high-achieving districts, white families occasionally transferred to less rigorous schools, citing “stress” or “better fit,” though this wasn’t explicitly linked to East Asian demographics.

Cultural Discomfort: Some families may feel out of place if the school or neighborhood culture shifts significantly (e.g., dominance of Asian languages in parent groups or cultural events). This is anecdotal but mentioned in community discussions on platforms like X.

Socioeconomic Factors: East Asian families often have high educational attainment and income levels (e.g., 54% of Asians in the U.S. have a bachelor’s degree or higher, per 2021 Census data), which can drive up housing costs, indirectly pushing out lower-income families, including white ones.

Counter-Trends: Many white families stay or even move into these areas for the strong schools and economic stability. For example, districts like Montgomery County, MD, with significant Asian populations, remain diverse and desirable. A 2020 Brookings Institution report noted that diverse, high-achieving suburbs are increasingly attractive to white families seeking quality education.

4. Other Outcomes

Diversity and Integration: Schools and neighborhoods often become more diverse, not just East Asian. For instance, areas with growing Asian populations may also attract South Asian, Hispanic, or other groups, fostering multiculturalism. A 2022 study from the Journal of Urban Affairs found that Asian-heavy suburbs often maintain stable diversity compared to racially polarized urban areas.

School Policy Changes: Schools may adapt to the demographic shift by offering more AP/STEM courses, bilingual programs, or cultural events. However, this can lead to tensions if resources are perceived as favoring high-achieving (often Asian) students over others.

Social Dynamics: Some students (of any race) may feel marginalized if they struggle to keep up academically or socially in a high-pressure environment. Conversely, diversity can foster cross-cultural friendships and resilience. A 2016 American Educational Research Journal study found that diverse schools with strong academic cultures often produce better long-term outcomes for all students.

5. Data Gaps and Context

No Nationwide Data on Tipping and Flight: There’s no comprehensive study directly linking East Asian demographic “tipping” to white flight in schools or neighborhoods. Most evidence is localized (e.g., California, New York) or anecdotal.

Regional Variations: Outcomes depend on the area. In affluent suburbs, white flight is less common due to economic incentives. In less wealthy areas, demographic shifts might amplify existing tensions.

Perception vs. Reality: On platforms like X, some users in high-Asian districts (e.g., Cupertino, Arcadia) complain about “too much competition” or cultural shifts, but these are often individual sentiments, not evidence of mass flight. Conversely, others praise the academic rigor and diversity.

Conclusion

When a school or neighborhood “tips” East Asian, the area often becomes more academically competitive, culturally diverse, and economically stable, with rising property values and strong schools. While some white families may leave due to perceived academic pressure, cultural discomfort, or cost-of-living increases, classic “white flight” is rare, as East Asian influxes don’t typically trigger the economic or social decline associated with historical flight patterns. Many white families stay or are attracted to these areas for their quality of life.