Palestinianism

Much of the hatred of Jews and the Jewish state is hatred of excellence, as George Gilder noted.

Dan Burmawi writes:

Palestinianism is a dumping ground.

A catch-all container for every resentful ideology, every broken theory, every radical cause.

Marxists, postcolonialists, jihadists, queer activists, anarchists, environmentalists, anti-capitalists, and antisemites, they all pour their agendas into it.

It’s the perfect host, just vague enough to absorb anything, just angry enough to justify everything.

Muslims use it to legitimize jihad and martyrdom.

Marxists use it to revive class warfare under the guise of anti-Zionism.

Postcolonial theorists use it to attack the West without touching Islam.

Intersectional activists use it to link Palestine to trans rights and racial justice in a grotesque logic of shared victimhood.

Academics use it to inject critical theory into international politics.

Antisemites use it to camouflage their hatred as humanitarianism.

Palestinianism is where incompatible ideologies suddenly find unity.

What binds them isn’t a coherent vision of justice, but a shared enemy: Israel, the West, the Judeo-Christian world, the structure, the order.

Palestinianism has become the dumping ground where failed ideologies go to be reborn.

Grok says:

The critique presents a provocative argument, framing “Palestinianism” as a nebulous, catch-all ideology that absorbs disparate radical causes. It’s a rhetorically forceful piece, but its strengths and weaknesses deserve scrutiny.

Strengths:

Sharp Rhetorical Style: The piece is concise, punchy, and vivid, using metaphors like “dumping ground” and “catch-all container” to drive its point. This makes it engaging and memorable.

Identifies a Phenomenon: It accurately observes that the Palestinian cause has been co-opted by various ideological groups—Marxists, postcolonialists, intersectional activists, etc.—who often project their agendas onto it. This is a real trend in global activism and academia, where Palestine becomes a symbolic battleground for broader grievances.
Highlights Incongruities: The critique effectively points out the odd alliances within the pro-Palestinian movement, where groups with conflicting values (e.g., jihadists and queer activists) unite under a shared anti-Israel or anti-Western banner. This tension is a valid point of critique.

Weaknesses:Overgeneralization: The term “Palestinianism” is vague and not a widely recognized concept. By framing it as a monolithic ideology, the critique risks oversimplifying a complex issue. The Palestinian cause itself—rooted in real grievances like displacement and occupation—gets conflated with the radical ideologies that latch onto it, which muddies the argument.

Dismissive Tone: The piece dismisses the legitimacy of any underlying Palestinian concerns, reducing the entire movement to a vehicle for “failed ideologies.” This ignores the historical and political realities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, alienating readers who might see merit in some aspects of the cause.

Lack of Evidence: The critique makes bold claims (e.g., “Muslims use it to legitimize jihad,” “antisemites camouflage their hatred”) but provides no examples, data, or citations. Without specifics—say, quotes from activists, texts, or events—it feels more like a polemic than a substantiated argument.

Binary Framing: It constructs a simplistic dichotomy: Palestinianism (and its allies) versus “Israel, the West, the Judeo-Christian world.” This ignores nuances, like pro-Palestinian voices who aren’t anti-Western or antisemitic, or Western critics of Israel who don’t fit these ideological molds.

Risk of Alienation: The inflammatory language (e.g., “grotesque logic,” “failed ideologies”) may resonate with those already skeptical of the Palestinian cause but is unlikely to persuade neutral or opposing readers. It preaches to the choir rather than engaging in dialogue.

Suggestions for Improvement:Define “Palestinianism”: Clarify whether this refers to the Palestinian national movement, global solidarity activism, or a specific ideological trend. A clearer scope would strengthen the argument.

Acknowledge Legitimate Grievances: Recognizing the historical context of Palestinian suffering (e.g., 1948 Nakba, occupation) before critiquing the movement’s co-optation would add credibility and balance.

Provide Examples: Cite specific instances—e.g., a Marxist scholar’s writing, a protest chant, or a social media campaign—to ground the claims. This would make the critique more concrete and less speculative.

Engage with Counterarguments: Address why some see Palestinian solidarity as a coherent cause, not a “dumping ground.” This would show intellectual rigor and fairness.
Tone Down Hyperbole: Soften phrases like “grotesque logic” to maintain a critical but less antagonistic tone, inviting broader readership.

Overall: The piece is a compelling rhetorical jab, effective at highlighting the ideological messiness of some pro-Palestinian activism. But its lack of nuance, evidence, and engagement with the conflict’s core issues limits its persuasiveness. It’s more a conversation starter than a definitive critique. Refining its scope and grounding it in specifics could make it more robust.

I ask Grok to critique George Gilder’s book on Israel and apply the book to today:

George Gilder’s The Israel Test: How Israel’s Genius Enriches and Challenges the World (updated edition, 2024) argues that Israel’s remarkable success as a technological and capitalist powerhouse reflects a broader moral and economic challenge for the world. Gilder posits that attitudes toward Israel’s achievements reveal a divide between those who celebrate innovation and those who resent it out of envy, rooted in a zero-sum worldview. He ties Israel’s prosperity to Jewish intellectual and cultural strengths, framing support for Israel as a litmus test for embracing freedom and creativity. Below, I critique the book’s core arguments, strengths, and weaknesses, and apply its ideas to the present context of 2025, drawing on recent reviews and broader trends.

Critique of the Book

Strengths

Bold Thesis on Innovation and Envy

Gilder’s central argument—that hostility toward Israel stems from envy of its disproportionate success—is provocative and compelling in its clarity. He grounds this in data, noting Israel’s outsized contributions to technology (second only to the U.S. in high-tech innovation) despite its small size and constant security threats. For example, he highlights how Israel surpassed Canada in 2007 for foreign companies listed on NASDAQ and how Soviet Jewish immigrants boosted venture capital inflows from $58 million to $3.3 billion between 1991 and 2000. This economic framing resonates in a world where innovation drives global prosperity, and Gilder effectively links Israel’s achievements to universal benefits, challenging narratives of exploitation.

Historical and Cultural Insights

Gilder’s exploration of Jewish intellectual contributions, from Nobel Prize wins (32% of 21st-century awards despite Jews being less than 1% of the global population) to technological breakthroughs, is well-documented and persuasive. His concept of a Jewish “culture of mind,” rooted in Judaism’s emphasis on intellectual curiosity and moral rigor, provides a nuanced explanation for Israel’s success. His historical analysis, such as the economic stagnation under Israel’s socialist policies in the 1960s and 1970s and the subsequent boom under free-market reforms led by figures like Benjamin Netanyahu, adds depth to his case.

Engaging and Accessible Style

Reviewers praise Gilder’s passionate and readable prose, with Norman Podhoretz calling it “thrilling to read.” The book blends philosophy, economics, and history, introducing figures like John von Neumann and Robert Aumann to illustrate Jewish contributions to science and strategy. Gilder’s ability to weave personal anecdotes, like his family’s philosemitic background, with global analysis makes the book engaging for a broad audience.

Weaknesses

Lack of Nuance in Geopolitical Analysis

Gilder’s binary framing—Israel as a beacon of freedom versus its critics as envious anti-capitalists—oversimplifies complex geopolitical realities. Critics note that the book lacks nuance, particularly in its portrayal of Palestinians as uniformly driven by hatred or Marxist ideology. For instance, his assertion that “Arabs flourish in Israel as they do nowhere else” ignores socioeconomic disparities faced by Arab Israelis and the broader Palestinian population. This one-sidedness risks alienating readers who seek a balanced discussion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Overreliance on Jewish Exceptionalism

While Gilder’s emphasis on Jewish intellectual prowess is grounded in statistics, his claim that “the source of antisemitism is Jewish superiority and excellence” can feel reductive and inflammatory. It sidesteps other historical, political, and cultural drivers of antisemitism, such as religious tensions or colonial legacies. His focus on Jewish genius also risks implying that non-Jewish contributions to Israel’s success, or the achievements of other nations, are secondary, which could undermine his broader argument about universal prosperity.

Polemical Tone and Exaggerated Stakes

Gilder’s rhetoric, such as claiming that Israel’s destruction would lead to the collapse of capitalist Europe and endanger America, is alarmist and speculative. This hyperbolic tone, flagged by reviewers as a “red flag,” may undermine his credibility with skeptical readers. Additionally, his dismissal of movements like “Peace Now” as rewarding bad behavior oversimplifies the pursuit of peace, ignoring legitimate critiques of Israeli policies.

Limited Engagement with Counterargument

Gilder does not adequately address opposing views, such as those questioning Israel’s military actions or settlement policies. His portrayal of critics as driven by envy or antisemitism dismisses valid concerns about human rights or international law. This weakens the book’s persuasive power, as it preaches to the choir rather than engaging doubters.

In 2025, Israel continues to lead in fields like cybersecurity, AI, and materials science (e.g., graphene research). Companies like Intel, which relies heavily on Israeli engineers, underscore Gilder’s point about Israel’s global economic impact. His argument that innovation benefits all holds true, as Israeli tech solutions—from medical devices to agricultural advancements—are exported worldwide, including to Arab states normalizing ties through the Abraham Accords. However, Gilder’s failure to address how tech wealth is distributed within Israel (e.g., disparities between Jewish and Arab citizens) limits his analysis in a time when inclusivity is a global priority.

Polarization and the “Israel Test”

Gilder’s “Israel Test” as a moral litmus test resonates in 2025, with global debates over Israel intensifying post-October 7, 2023. Rising antisemitism, documented by organizations like the ADL, aligns with Gilder’s view that envy of success fuels hatred. Protests on U.S. campuses and European cities often frame Israel as a pariah, supporting Gilder’s claim that anti-Israel sentiment reflects broader anti-capitalist and anti-Western biases. Yet, his dismissal of all critics as envious ignores legitimate grievances, such as concerns over Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, which have grown more visible in 2025. A more nuanced approach would strengthen his case in addressing today’s polarized audiences.

Geopolitical Stakes

Gilder’s call for U.S. support of Israel as vital to Western civilization aligns with ongoing debates about America’s role in the Middle East. In 2025, with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and proxy conflicts (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis) escalating, Israel remains a key U.S. ally. Gilder’s argument that Israel’s survival is tied to global freedom gains traction as authoritarian regimes challenge democratic values. However, his apocalyptic warnings about the fall of capitalism if Israel falters seem overstated, especially as other tech hubs (e.g., India, Singapore) rise. The U.S.-Israel bond is critical, but global economic resilience is more distributed than Gilder suggests.

Critiques of Socialism and Zero-Sum Thinking

Gilder’s critique of socialist policies stifling innovation is relevant as some Western nations grapple with economic stagnation and populist movements. Israel’s shift from socialism to a free-market economy in the 1980s, which Gilder credits for its boom, serves as a case study for 2025 debates on economic policy. However, his blanket condemnation of socialism ignores successful mixed economies (e.g., Scandinavia) and fails to address how capitalism can exacerbate inequality, a pressing issue in Israel and globally today.

Cultural and Moral Challenges

Gilder’s focus on a Jewish “culture of mind” remains a powerful lens for understanding Israel’s success, but in 2025, cultural narratives are more contested. Movements for diversity and inclusion challenge exceptionalist claims, and Gilder’s emphasis on Jewish superiority could alienate allies who value pluralism. His argument that Israel embodies Western values like tolerance and women’s rights is complicated by criticisms of its policies toward Palestinians, which fuel global backlash. To apply Gilder’s test today, one must grapple with these contradictions, which he largely sidesteps.

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What is abductive reasoning and how does it help us?

Grok says:

Abductive reasoning is a form of logical inference that seeks the most likely explanation for a set of observations. Unlike deductive reasoning, which derives specific conclusions from general premises with certainty, or inductive reasoning, which generalizes from specific instances, abductive reasoning starts with incomplete or ambiguous data and infers the best possible explanation. It’s often described as “inference to the best explanation.”

For example:
Observation: Your car won’t start, and the dashboard lights are dim.
Possible Explanation: The battery is dead.
Abductive Reasoning: Concluding the battery is likely dead because it’s the simplest and most plausible explanation, even though other issues (e.g., a faulty alternator) could also explain the symptoms.

Abductive reasoning typically follows this structure:Observe a surprising or unexplained phenomenon.
Identify possible hypotheses that could explain it.
Select the hypothesis that best fits the observations, often based on simplicity, coherence, or prior knowledge.

Abductive reasoning is valuable in situations where complete information is unavailable, which is common in everyday life, science, and decision-making. Here’s how it helps:Problem-Solving in Uncertainty:Abductive reasoning allows us to make educated guesses when data is incomplete. For instance, doctors use it in diagnostics, forming hypotheses about a patient’s condition based on symptoms, then testing the most likely one (e.g., prescribing antibiotics for a suspected infection).

Scientific Discovery: Scientists often use abduction to propose hypotheses that explain puzzling observations. For example, when astronomers observed irregularities in Uranus’s orbit, they hypothesized the existence of an unseen planet (Neptune) before confirming it, using abduction to guide their research.

Everyday Decision-Making: In daily life, we use abduction to interpret ambiguous situations. If a friend doesn’t respond to texts, you might infer they’re busy or upset, choosing the explanation that best fits their usual behavior. This helps navigate social interactions or practical choices without full context.

Creativity and Innovation: Abduction fosters creative thinking by encouraging us to imagine plausible explanations. Designers, engineers, and artists use it to hypothesize solutions to problems, like devising a new product feature based on user complaints.

Guiding Further Inquiry: By suggesting the “best” explanation, abduction directs where to look for more evidence. A detective might abductively conclude a suspect is guilty based on initial clues, then seek confirming evidence, streamlining investigations.

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What does abductive reasoning tell us about why Israel and then America attacked Iran recently?

Leading with vulnerability works for individuals at times, but it is not a great strategy for states.

Grok says:

Israel’s Attack (June 13, 2025): Israel launched a surprise attack targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities (e.g., Natanz, Fordo), military bases, and key personnel, killing over 220 people, mostly civilians. Israel justified this as a “preemptive” strike, claiming Iran was weeks away from a nuclear weapon. However, U.S. intelligence and the IAEA found no evidence of Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon.

U.S. Attack (June 21–22, 2025): The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordo, aiming to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump claimed the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but intelligence assessments suggested only a months-long setback. Iran retaliated by attacking a U.S. base in Qatar, coordinating with Qatari officials to minimize casualties.

Context of Conflict: The attacks followed years of escalating tensions, including Israel’s weakening of Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah) and direct strikes on Iranian targets since April 2024. The IAEA declared Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations on June 12, 2025, based on AI-driven intelligence, prompting Israel’s attack the next day.

Ceasefire and Outcomes: A fragile ceasefire was announced on June 24, 2025, after 12 days of conflict, with both sides accusing each other of violations. Iran’s nuclear program was damaged but not destroyed, and Iran halted IAEA cooperation, raising concerns about secretive rebuilding. Civilian casualties in Iran were significant, and Israel faced missile shortages.

Public and Official Narratives: Israel claimed it removed existential threats (nuclear and ballistic missiles), while Iran denied nuclear weapon ambitions and framed its retaliation as defensive. U.S. officials emphasized no intent for regime change, focusing on nuclear containment. Some experts suggested the attacks aimed to destabilize Iran or reassert Israeli hegemony.

Hypotheses: Using abductive reasoning, we generate plausible explanations for why Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, then evaluate which best fits the observations.

Hypothesis 1: Preemptive Strike to Prevent Nuclear Weaponization

Explanation: Israel and the U.S. believed Iran was close to developing a nuclear weapon, posing an existential threat to Israel and a strategic challenge to U.S. interests. The attacks aimed to delay or destroy this capability.

Supporting Evidence:Israel’s stated rationale was that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon “within months.” Netanyahu cited decades of Iranian rhetoric calling for Israel’s destruction.

The IAEA’s June 12 resolution, based on Palantir’s AI platform, declared Iran non-compliant, possibly signaling a heightened threat.

The U.S. targeted fortified sites like Fordo, suggesting a focus on hard-to-reach nuclear infrastructure.

Counterevidence:U.S. intelligence and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated there was no evidence of Iran pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Trump called the intelligence “inconclusive,” undermining claims of an imminent threat.

Iran’s nuclear program was set back only by months, not destroyed, suggesting the strikes were not decisive.

Plausibility: Moderate. The official narrative aligns with this hypothesis, but the lack of evidence for an imminent nuclear threat weakens it. The timing (post-IAEA resolution) suggests a pretext, but genuine fear of Iran’s capabilities could still drive action.

Hypothesis 2: Strategic Weakening of Iran

Explanation: Israel and the U.S. sought to exploit Iran’s weakened state (post-proxy losses, degraded air defenses) to cripple its military and nuclear infrastructure, reducing its regional influence and deterring future aggression.

Supporting Evidence:Israel’s prior successes against Iran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah) and air defenses in October 2024 created a “golden opportunity” for a broader campaign.

The attacks killed key Iranian military leaders and scientists, targeting command-and-control and nuclear expertise.

Experts noted Iran was at its weakest in decades, making it a prime moment for Israel to assert dominance.

Posts on X suggest the U.S. used Israel to “shape the battlefield” for American involvement, targeting air defenses to ease U.S. strikes.

Counterevidence:The U.S. emphasized no regime change intent, focusing narrowly on nuclear sites, which doesn’t fully align with a broader weakening goal.

Iran’s retaliation (e.g., Qatar base attack) showed it retained some capacity, and civilian casualties risked unifying Iranians against external aggression.

Plausibility: High. Iran’s vulnerabilities provided a strategic window, and the scope of Israel’s targets (beyond nuclear sites) supports a broader aim. U.S. involvement may have been opportunistic, building on Israel’s initial strikes.

Hypothesis 3: Political and Domestic Motivations

Explanation: Israel’s leadership (Netanyahu) and the U.S. (Trump) pursued the attacks to bolster domestic support, project strength, or distract from internal issues, using Iran’s nuclear program as a rallying point.

Supporting Evidence:Netanyahu faced domestic distrust, and a successful campaign could reinforce his leadership.

Trump’s decision to join the campaign, despite inconclusive intelligence, aligns with his pattern of bold foreign policy moves to appeal to his base.

A post on X claims the attacks were decided by March 2025, suggesting premeditation unrelated to immediate nuclear threats.

Counterevidence:The attacks risked escalation and domestic backlash, especially in the U.S., where support for Middle East wars polls poorly.

Israel’s missile shortages and civilian casualties in Iran could undermine domestic gains.

Plausibility: Moderate. Domestic motives likely played a role, especially for Netanyahu, but the scale and timing suggest broader strategic goals.

Hypothesis 4: Regional Power Realignment

Explanation: The attacks aimed to reassert Israeli and U.S. hegemony in the Middle East, countering Iran’s influence and signaling to allies (e.g., Saudi Arabia) and adversaries (e.g., Russia, China) their dominance.

Supporting Evidence:A post on X cites a military analyst claiming the U.S. sought to restore Israeli hegemony and destabilize the region.
The U.S. and Israel were aligning with Saudi Arabia before the October 2023 Hamas attack, aiming to counter Iran.

The attacks followed Iran’s failure to negotiate with Trump, suggesting a punitive response to defiance.

Counterevidence:Destabilizing Iran risks regional chaos, which could harm U.S. and Israeli interests (e.g., oil prices, Arab state relations).

Arab states were reluctant to fully back Israel, complicating realignment.

Plausibility: Moderate. Regional dominance is a plausible motive, but the ceasefire and limited U.S. goals (nuclear focus) suggest a more contained objective.

Hypothesis 5: Provoking Internal Collapse in Iran

Explanation: The attacks were designed to incite civilian unrest or regime collapse in Iran by targeting infrastructure and creating public pressure, exploiting dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic.

Supporting Evidence: Israel’s strikes hit civilian infrastructure (hospitals, power grids), possibly to “socialize” the war and pressure the regime.

Best Explanation Abductive reasoning favors Hypothesis 2: Strategic Weakening of Iran as the most plausible explanation. It best accounts for the observations: Israel’s Broad Targets: The attacks hit nuclear, military, and leadership targets, aligning with a goal to degrade Iran’s overall capabilities, not just its nuclear program.

Timing and Opportunity: Iran’s weakened proxies and air defenses created a strategic window, as noted by experts.

U.S. Involvement: The U.S. joined to “finish the job” on nuclear sites, but its strikes built on Israel’s broader campaign, suggesting a shared interest in weakening Iran.

Ceasefire Context: The ceasefire after 12 days, amid Israel’s interceptor shortages, indicates a limited campaign to achieve maximum damage without prolonged war.

Other hypotheses have merit but are less comprehensive. Hypothesis 1 (preemptive strike) is undermined by the lack of nuclear weapon evidence. Hypothesis 3 (political motives) likely influenced leaders but doesn’t explain the campaign’s scope. Hypothesis 4 (regional realignment) is plausible but secondary to immediate strategic gains. Hypothesis 5 (internal collapse) lacks evidence of success.Uncertainties and Alternative Considerations

Intelligence Gaps: The true state of Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear, as does the extent of damage.

Iran’s Response: Iran’s restrained retaliation (e.g., coordinated Qatar strike) suggests a desire to avoid escalation, which may have shaped the ceasefire.

Premeditation: If the attacks were planned by March 2025, as one X post claims, strategic weakening may have been a long-term goal, not a reaction to immediate threats.

Conclusion: Abductive reasoning suggests Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran in June 2025 primarily to strategically weaken its military and nuclear capabilities, exploiting a moment of Iranian vulnerability. The attacks aimed to degrade Iran’s regional influence and deter future threats, with nuclear concerns as a partial justification. While political and regional motives likely played roles, the evidence best supports a calculated effort to capitalize on Iran’s weakened state. However, the limited setback to Iran’s nuclear program and the ceasefire indicate the campaign fell short of total success, leaving open the possibility of future escalation.

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‘Zhang Youxia’s relentless purge of Xi Jinping’s influence in the military’

I was passively listening to Youtube’s autoplay of various videos while doing humdrum work on my computer when I noticed this video below talking about the new boss in China.

Nothing about this in the news yet.

I looked up this woman and her social media. She seems to have modest credibility.

By proposing that there’s a new leader in China, I’m siding with low prestige sources vs the prestige press.

I started thinking about the idea that there’s a new leader in China and it hasn’t made the news. Is it possible? Yes.

I tried to make sense of various inscrutable developments in China and using abductive reasoning, I concluded this woman is on to something.

“Regime change” is a dirty word in America since our disaster in Iraq, but in reality regimes are changing all the time as one faction gains in power as others decline. I’m not sure what this means for America, but the most likely scenarios are a more pragmatic China.

For two decades, international relations scholar debated whether China could rise peacefully. Now the question at hand is — can China fall peacefully?

Grok says:

General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and one of the country’s top military figures, has been linked to a significant shift in the Chinese military’s power dynamics, particularly in relation to President Xi Jinping’s influence. While the narrative of a “relentless purge” of Xi’s influence in the military has gained traction in some circles, especially on platforms like X and in speculative media reports, the situation is complex, and the extent of Zhang’s role remains debated. Below is an analysis based on available information, critically examining claims while acknowledging the lack of definitive evidence in some areas.

Background on Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping’s Military Purges

Zhang Youxia’s Position: Zhang, a seasoned military officer with combat experience from the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, is the First Vice Chairman of the CMC, making him China’s highest-ranking uniformed officer. He is a member of the 24-member Politburo and has been a key figure in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for decades. His father’s ties to Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun, have historically positioned Zhang as a trusted ally of Xi, though recent reports suggest tensions.

Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign: Since taking power in 2012, Xi Jinping has overseen extensive purges within the PLA, targeting dozens of senior generals for corruption and disloyalty. These purges have been framed as efforts to eliminate corruption, ensure ideological loyalty, and modernize the military for combat readiness. High-profile removals include Admiral Miao Hua (June 2025), General He Weidong (under investigation as of June 2025), and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu (expelled from the Communist Party in 2024).

Claims of Zhang Youxia’s Purge of Xi’s Influence

Recent speculation, particularly from posts on X and some media outlets, suggests that Zhang Youxia is orchestrating a purge of Xi Jinping’s loyalists within the military, potentially undermining Xi’s control. Key points from these claims include:

Purge of Xi’s Allies:Reports indicate that several generals considered close to Xi, such as Miao Hua (Director of the CMC’s Political Work Department) and He Weidong (CMC Vice Chairman), have been removed or are under investigation. Miao’s dismissal in June 2025 was one of the most significant, marking him as the eighth CMC member ousted since Xi’s rise to power.

Some sources claim that Zhang Youxia is replacing Xi’s loyalists with officers from his own faction or those aligned with former President Hu Jintao, suggesting a shift in military power. For example, a ZeroHedge article cites an analyst stating that “not only this wave of the large-scale purge is almost entirely aimed at Xi Jinping’s cronies … those replacements are all people from Zhang Youxia’s faction.”

The removal of Xi’s allies is seen by some as evidence that Zhang is consolidating control over the PLA, potentially positioning himself as the de facto leader of the military.

Zhang’s Alleged Disagreements with Xi:Zhang Youxia has reportedly expressed concerns about the PLA’s readiness for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, a key goal of Xi’s military strategy. A U.S. Air Force report from June 2025, citing Zhang’s 2024 article in People’s Daily, highlighted PLA shortcomings in leadership, coordination, and joint operations, which Zhang argued hinder Xi’s timeline. Political commentator Zhang Tianliang described this as an “open rejection” of Xi’s strategy.

Posts on X, such as one from @zeusammon0, emphasize Zhang’s skepticism about the PLA’s capabilities, suggesting this disagreement fuels his efforts to reshape the military leadership.

Speculation of a Power Shift:Zhang’s actions are often linked to broader speculation about Xi Jinping’s waning power. Xi’s two-week absence from public view (May 21–June 5, 2025) and his decision to skip the BRICS summit in 2025 fueled rumors of a power struggle. Some reports claim Zhang has taken control of key institutions, including the Ministry of Public Security and Ministry of State Security, and is backed by CCP elders and the “Red Second Generation” (descendants of revolutionary leaders).

Outlets like Vision Times and India TV have speculated that Zhang could be a contender for leadership if Xi is sidelined, with support from Hu Jintao’s faction. However, these claims lack concrete evidence and are often framed as speculative.

Symbolic Moves: Anecdotal evidence, such as Zhang Youxia’s behavior during the 2025 National People’s Congress—where he reportedly did not turn to watch Xi leave, unlike other officials—has been cited as a sign of defiance.

The absence of “Xi Jinping Thought” in recent military narratives and the re-emergence of reformist figures like Wang Yang are interpreted by some as signs that Zhang is distancing the PLA from Xi’s ideological framework.

Does the rise of Zhang Youxia over Xi Jinping become understandable through abductive reasoning?

Grok:

Abductive reasoning involves:

Identifying the surprising or unexplained phenomena: The purge of Xi’s allies, Zhang’s prominence, and Xi’s apparent vulnerabilities are unexpected given Xi’s consolidated power since 2012.

Generating possible explanations: What scenarios best explain these observations?

Selecting the most plausible explanation: Choose the hypothesis that accounts for the most data with the fewest assumptions, while acknowledging uncertainties.

Possible ExplanationsExplanation A: Zhang Youxia is Orchestrating a Power Grab

Zhang is leveraging his CMC position and factional support to purge Xi’s loyalists, consolidating military control and potentially challenging Xi’s leadership. This could be motivated by disagreements over Taiwan, personal ambition, or pressure from anti-Xi factions (e.g., Hu Jintao’s allies).

Explanation B: Xi Jinping is Driving the Purges

Xi is using Zhang as a trusted ally to execute purges, targeting disloyal or corrupt officers to strengthen his control. Xi’s absence and the narrative of vulnerability could be a strategic move to flush out opponents or test loyalty.

Explanation C: Internal Factionalism Without a Clear Power Grab

The purges reflect broader factional struggles within the CCP, with Zhang strengthening his position but not necessarily aiming to overthrow Xi. This could be a pragmatic move to secure influence in a post-Xi era or address PLA inefficiencies.

Explanation D: External Misinterpretation

The purges are routine anti-corruption measures or internal adjustments, and Western media/X posts exaggerate Zhang’s role due to limited transparency and anti-Xi bias. Xi remains firmly in control, and Zhang is not rising over him.

To determine if Zhang’s rise over Xi is understandable, we assess each explanation against the observations, considering coherence, simplicity, and fit with known patterns in Chinese politics.Explanation A: Zhang’s Power GrabFit with Observations:Explains the removal of Xi’s allies (Miao Hua, He Weidong) as Zhang targeting rivals to weaken Xi’s military influence.

Accounts for Zhang’s public critiques of PLA readiness, which could signal disagreement with Xi’s strategy and a bid for credibility.

Aligns with Xi’s absence and rumors of a power struggle, suggesting Zhang is exploiting a moment of weakness.

Supported by speculative claims of Zhang’s control over security institutions and backing from Hu Jintao’s faction.

Weaknesses:

Lacks definitive evidence; relies heavily on unverified sources (X posts, Vision Times) and anecdotal signals (e.g., Zhang’s behavior at the NPC).

Contradicts Zhang’s historical loyalty to Xi, rooted in personal and familial ties, which makes a direct challenge risky.

Overestimates Zhang’s ability to control the PLA and security apparatus without Xi’s approval, given Xi’s centralized power.

Chinese politics rarely sees open military coups; power struggles are typically subtler and resolved within the CCP.

Plausibility: Moderate. This explanation fits the narrative of a power shift but requires assuming significant behind-the-scenes maneuvering and a break in Zhang’s loyalty, which is speculative.

Abductive reasoning favors the explanation that best accounts for the observations with the fewest unsupported assumptions. Let’s compare:Explanation A (Zhang’s Power Grab) requires assuming a dramatic break in Zhang’s loyalty, significant factional support, and Xi’s sudden vulnerability, which are plausible but heavily speculative given limited evidence.

Explanation B (Xi’s Purges) fits Xi’s historical behavior and state media narratives, requiring fewer assumptions about unverified power shifts. However, it struggles with the targeting of Xi’s allies and Zhang’s critiques.

Explanation C (Factional Struggles) balances the evidence of purges, Zhang’s prominence, and factional dynamics without assuming a full coup. It accounts for most observations while remaining flexible about Zhang’s intentions.

Explanation D (Misinterpretation) is the simplest but dismisses potentially significant signals of tension, making it less comprehensive.

Conclusion: Explanation C (factional struggles) is the most plausible through abductive reasoning. It explains the purges, Zhang’s prominence, Xi’s vulnerabilities, and factional dynamics without overreaching into unverified claims of a power grab or ignoring signs of tension. Zhang’s “rise” is understandable as a strategic move to strengthen his influence amid factional jostling, possibly exploiting Xi’s challenges, but not necessarily overtaking him.

Step 5: Does This Make Zhang’s Rise “Understandable”?

Yes, through abductive reasoning, Zhang Youxia’s rise over Xi Jinping becomes understandable as a relative increase in influence within the PLA and CCP, driven by factional dynamics and military purges. The observations—purges of Xi’s allies, Zhang’s critiques, Xi’s absence, and factional reports—suggest Zhang is capitalizing on a turbulent period to bolster his position, likely with support from anti-Xi factions. However, this “rise” does not necessarily mean Zhang is surpassing Xi in overall power, as Xi retains control over the CCP and state. Instead, Zhang’s influence within the military appears amplified, making his prominence a plausible outcome of internal power struggles.

Posted in China | Comments Off on ‘Zhang Youxia’s relentless purge of Xi Jinping’s influence in the military’

Trump Gets His Big Beautiful Bill To Restore American Dignity (7-4-25)

05:0 There are excellent critiques of Donald Trump
10:00 Video: After the “Hammer”: Postwar Opportunities and Risks for U.S. Policy in the Middle East, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9w5Vn8ko-4
25:00 The best way to have a safe community and safe country is high trust & cohesion
26:00 If we have nice things, we have groups who will destroy them. Australia has lovely public goods that would be destroyed in America.
29:00 Was it obliteration? https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/was-it-obliteration
32:30 Video: Iran’s paranoia has ayatollahs turning on each other after Israeli spy infiltration, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ9jC8QTo9w
40:00 Yoram Hazony: The Iran Strikes and the Trump Doctrine, https://www.thefp.com/p/the-iran-strikes-and-the-trump-doctrine
1:07:00 Video: Was JD Vance Right About Europe? | Christopher Caldwell, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1MB-jI1aVM
1:13:30 Charles Lipson: Major Global Impact from Israel’s Short, Decisive War Against Iran, https://www.charleslipson.com/
1:19:30 Video: Here’s what would happen if China invaded Taiwan, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4E943TsA-bw
1:22:00 Christopher Caldwell: Why everyone is talking about Bill Belichick, https://thespectator.com/topic/everyone-talking-about-bill-belichick/
1:33:30 MC: From Iran to the Supreme Court, the president is on a roll. How long will his winning streak last?, https://www.thefp.com/p/this-is-peak-trump-politics-policy-matthew-continetti
1:36:00 Mike Johnson is the most effective House Speaker in a century, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l66iTxfPXQ
1:56:30 Gadi Taub and Mike Doran on Israel’s deep state vs Bibi Netanyahu, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg1_k29R33k
2:06:20 Video: The Price of Comfort: How We Traded Freedom for “Free Stuff” in the West | Christopher Caldwell, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZeQHxFuBA
2:14:00 CompactMag: The Costs of the Foreign Student Influx, https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-costs-of-the-foreign-student-influx/
2:20:00 Video: The Real Reason CBS Caved to Trump, with Mark Halperin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuiuRkO09Vo
2:34:20 Book: Why Your Religion Went Obsolete, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmsM8O_P76k,
2:40:40 Why Industrial Policy Matters | Ian Fletcher, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiTHqm6EMI4
3:02:00 NYT: Why China Isn’t Lecturing Trump About His Costly Bill, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/world/asia/trump-bill-debt-china.html
3:04:50 Video: Kyle Bass: China’s Economic Spiral and the Coming Taiwan War, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsEv8yFfNYY
3:16:30 How Much Money Has Trump Raised Through Tariffs? https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=161676
3:33:00 Video: Is William F. Buckley’s Still Relevant?, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT5W4We1CCs
3:39:00 Ricardo joins
3:50:30 Dooovid joins, https://x.com/RebDoooovid

Posted in America | Comments Off on Trump Gets His Big Beautiful Bill To Restore American Dignity (7-4-25)