I was passively listening to Youtube’s autoplay of various videos while doing humdrum work on my computer when I noticed this video below talking about the new boss in China.
Nothing about this in the news yet.
I looked up this woman and her social media. She seems to have modest credibility.
By proposing that there’s a new leader in China, I’m siding with low prestige sources vs the prestige press.
I started thinking about the idea that there’s a new leader in China and it hasn’t made the news. Is it possible? Yes.
I tried to make sense of various inscrutable developments in China and using abductive reasoning, I concluded this woman is on to something.
“Regime change” is a dirty word in America since our disaster in Iraq, but in reality regimes are changing all the time as one faction gains in power as others decline. I’m not sure what this means for America, but the most likely scenarios are a more pragmatic China.
For two decades, international relations scholar debated whether China could rise peacefully. Now the question at hand is — can China fall peacefully?
Grok says:
General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) and one of the country’s top military figures, has been linked to a significant shift in the Chinese military’s power dynamics, particularly in relation to President Xi Jinping’s influence. While the narrative of a “relentless purge” of Xi’s influence in the military has gained traction in some circles, especially on platforms like X and in speculative media reports, the situation is complex, and the extent of Zhang’s role remains debated. Below is an analysis based on available information, critically examining claims while acknowledging the lack of definitive evidence in some areas.
Background on Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping’s Military Purges
Zhang Youxia’s Position: Zhang, a seasoned military officer with combat experience from the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, is the First Vice Chairman of the CMC, making him China’s highest-ranking uniformed officer. He is a member of the 24-member Politburo and has been a key figure in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for decades. His father’s ties to Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun, have historically positioned Zhang as a trusted ally of Xi, though recent reports suggest tensions.
Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign: Since taking power in 2012, Xi Jinping has overseen extensive purges within the PLA, targeting dozens of senior generals for corruption and disloyalty. These purges have been framed as efforts to eliminate corruption, ensure ideological loyalty, and modernize the military for combat readiness. High-profile removals include Admiral Miao Hua (June 2025), General He Weidong (under investigation as of June 2025), and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu (expelled from the Communist Party in 2024).
Claims of Zhang Youxia’s Purge of Xi’s Influence
Recent speculation, particularly from posts on X and some media outlets, suggests that Zhang Youxia is orchestrating a purge of Xi Jinping’s loyalists within the military, potentially undermining Xi’s control. Key points from these claims include:
Purge of Xi’s Allies:Reports indicate that several generals considered close to Xi, such as Miao Hua (Director of the CMC’s Political Work Department) and He Weidong (CMC Vice Chairman), have been removed or are under investigation. Miao’s dismissal in June 2025 was one of the most significant, marking him as the eighth CMC member ousted since Xi’s rise to power.
Some sources claim that Zhang Youxia is replacing Xi’s loyalists with officers from his own faction or those aligned with former President Hu Jintao, suggesting a shift in military power. For example, a ZeroHedge article cites an analyst stating that “not only this wave of the large-scale purge is almost entirely aimed at Xi Jinping’s cronies … those replacements are all people from Zhang Youxia’s faction.”
The removal of Xi’s allies is seen by some as evidence that Zhang is consolidating control over the PLA, potentially positioning himself as the de facto leader of the military.
Zhang’s Alleged Disagreements with Xi:Zhang Youxia has reportedly expressed concerns about the PLA’s readiness for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027, a key goal of Xi’s military strategy. A U.S. Air Force report from June 2025, citing Zhang’s 2024 article in People’s Daily, highlighted PLA shortcomings in leadership, coordination, and joint operations, which Zhang argued hinder Xi’s timeline. Political commentator Zhang Tianliang described this as an “open rejection” of Xi’s strategy.
Posts on X, such as one from @zeusammon0, emphasize Zhang’s skepticism about the PLA’s capabilities, suggesting this disagreement fuels his efforts to reshape the military leadership.
Speculation of a Power Shift:Zhang’s actions are often linked to broader speculation about Xi Jinping’s waning power. Xi’s two-week absence from public view (May 21–June 5, 2025) and his decision to skip the BRICS summit in 2025 fueled rumors of a power struggle. Some reports claim Zhang has taken control of key institutions, including the Ministry of Public Security and Ministry of State Security, and is backed by CCP elders and the “Red Second Generation” (descendants of revolutionary leaders).
Outlets like Vision Times and India TV have speculated that Zhang could be a contender for leadership if Xi is sidelined, with support from Hu Jintao’s faction. However, these claims lack concrete evidence and are often framed as speculative.
Symbolic Moves: Anecdotal evidence, such as Zhang Youxia’s behavior during the 2025 National People’s Congress—where he reportedly did not turn to watch Xi leave, unlike other officials—has been cited as a sign of defiance.
The absence of “Xi Jinping Thought” in recent military narratives and the re-emergence of reformist figures like Wang Yang are interpreted by some as signs that Zhang is distancing the PLA from Xi’s ideological framework.
Does the rise of Zhang Youxia over Xi Jinping become understandable through abductive reasoning?
Grok:
Abductive reasoning involves:
Identifying the surprising or unexplained phenomena: The purge of Xi’s allies, Zhang’s prominence, and Xi’s apparent vulnerabilities are unexpected given Xi’s consolidated power since 2012.
Generating possible explanations: What scenarios best explain these observations?
Selecting the most plausible explanation: Choose the hypothesis that accounts for the most data with the fewest assumptions, while acknowledging uncertainties.
Possible ExplanationsExplanation A: Zhang Youxia is Orchestrating a Power Grab
Zhang is leveraging his CMC position and factional support to purge Xi’s loyalists, consolidating military control and potentially challenging Xi’s leadership. This could be motivated by disagreements over Taiwan, personal ambition, or pressure from anti-Xi factions (e.g., Hu Jintao’s allies).
Explanation B: Xi Jinping is Driving the Purges
Xi is using Zhang as a trusted ally to execute purges, targeting disloyal or corrupt officers to strengthen his control. Xi’s absence and the narrative of vulnerability could be a strategic move to flush out opponents or test loyalty.
Explanation C: Internal Factionalism Without a Clear Power Grab
The purges reflect broader factional struggles within the CCP, with Zhang strengthening his position but not necessarily aiming to overthrow Xi. This could be a pragmatic move to secure influence in a post-Xi era or address PLA inefficiencies.
Explanation D: External Misinterpretation
The purges are routine anti-corruption measures or internal adjustments, and Western media/X posts exaggerate Zhang’s role due to limited transparency and anti-Xi bias. Xi remains firmly in control, and Zhang is not rising over him.
To determine if Zhang’s rise over Xi is understandable, we assess each explanation against the observations, considering coherence, simplicity, and fit with known patterns in Chinese politics.Explanation A: Zhang’s Power GrabFit with Observations:Explains the removal of Xi’s allies (Miao Hua, He Weidong) as Zhang targeting rivals to weaken Xi’s military influence.
Accounts for Zhang’s public critiques of PLA readiness, which could signal disagreement with Xi’s strategy and a bid for credibility.
Aligns with Xi’s absence and rumors of a power struggle, suggesting Zhang is exploiting a moment of weakness.
Supported by speculative claims of Zhang’s control over security institutions and backing from Hu Jintao’s faction.
Weaknesses:
Lacks definitive evidence; relies heavily on unverified sources (X posts, Vision Times) and anecdotal signals (e.g., Zhang’s behavior at the NPC).
Contradicts Zhang’s historical loyalty to Xi, rooted in personal and familial ties, which makes a direct challenge risky.
Overestimates Zhang’s ability to control the PLA and security apparatus without Xi’s approval, given Xi’s centralized power.
Chinese politics rarely sees open military coups; power struggles are typically subtler and resolved within the CCP.
Plausibility: Moderate. This explanation fits the narrative of a power shift but requires assuming significant behind-the-scenes maneuvering and a break in Zhang’s loyalty, which is speculative.
Abductive reasoning favors the explanation that best accounts for the observations with the fewest unsupported assumptions. Let’s compare:Explanation A (Zhang’s Power Grab) requires assuming a dramatic break in Zhang’s loyalty, significant factional support, and Xi’s sudden vulnerability, which are plausible but heavily speculative given limited evidence.
Explanation B (Xi’s Purges) fits Xi’s historical behavior and state media narratives, requiring fewer assumptions about unverified power shifts. However, it struggles with the targeting of Xi’s allies and Zhang’s critiques.
Explanation C (Factional Struggles) balances the evidence of purges, Zhang’s prominence, and factional dynamics without assuming a full coup. It accounts for most observations while remaining flexible about Zhang’s intentions.
Explanation D (Misinterpretation) is the simplest but dismisses potentially significant signals of tension, making it less comprehensive.
Conclusion: Explanation C (factional struggles) is the most plausible through abductive reasoning. It explains the purges, Zhang’s prominence, Xi’s vulnerabilities, and factional dynamics without overreaching into unverified claims of a power grab or ignoring signs of tension. Zhang’s “rise” is understandable as a strategic move to strengthen his influence amid factional jostling, possibly exploiting Xi’s challenges, but not necessarily overtaking him.
Step 5: Does This Make Zhang’s Rise “Understandable”?
Yes, through abductive reasoning, Zhang Youxia’s rise over Xi Jinping becomes understandable as a relative increase in influence within the PLA and CCP, driven by factional dynamics and military purges. The observations—purges of Xi’s allies, Zhang’s critiques, Xi’s absence, and factional reports—suggest Zhang is capitalizing on a turbulent period to bolster his position, likely with support from anti-Xi factions. However, this “rise” does not necessarily mean Zhang is surpassing Xi in overall power, as Xi retains control over the CCP and state. Instead, Zhang’s influence within the military appears amplified, making his prominence a plausible outcome of internal power struggles.
