Why Isn’t Hillary Winning Big?

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Comments at Steve Sailer:

* Trump and Clinton are merely figureheads for identity politics. Who they are or what they’ve done is actually not that important.

* Over the last year or so of following the US election I’ve often pictured the Establishment as the characters in an action film who insist their bank vault, fortress or system of defences are impregnable. “These walls are six feet of reinforced concrete. It would take a celebrity billionaire with his own broadcasting system to get through them!” and then along comes Trump and Twitter.

* Hillary has a pattern of doing things that are not in the national interest, and very good for her own self-interest, and there’s no way to disguise that.

These particular acts of hers threaten the national and personal security of all Americans:

1) Not caring that her emails are secure against foreign spying.
2) Benghazi. She’s very slow to recognize miltiary and terrorist threats, and then goes into denial and tries to blames someone or something else for the assault.
3) Wants to let in millions of foreigners who view whites, white culture, and white relition as The Enemy.
4) Is soft on crime, and she blames police for policing instead of criminals for committing crimes.

As for her own self-interest:

1) Pay to play money via the Clinton foundation.
2) Years spend racking up expensive speech fees.
3) Lusting after the presidency so hard the even though she’s elderly and ill, she’ll make her aides drag her corpse over the finish line if she has to.
4) You can even add in her cattle futures trade long ago, as the beginning of her unhealthy obsession with making cash in a dubious fashion.

During Bill’s administration, Hillary did not come across as especially greedy for money, and that was a trait that marked her as different from her greedy brothers, Tony and Hugh, who both got into trouble for taking money to arrange favors, and her greedy father, Hugh senior the businessman. Well, it turns out Hillary was just a chip off the old block, and was every bit as and venal and unethical about it as the rest of her family. She just delayed her money grab until she thought it was safe.

* I always thought that the Blythe political machine was overrated at the task of winning office. Bill won twice with a third party candidate sucking up 19% and 8.4% of the vote in 1992 and 1996 respectively, and really putting Bush in a political doublebind in 1992 with an assist from a fawning press corps. And that was with the alleged charismatic Bill making headway for the Baby Boomers in their push to take the mantle of National leadership. Hillary was always an unlikable harridan with a perpetual sourpuss look on her face, typified by her condescending “bake cookies” comment in 1992. The true power of the Clinton machine should be all of the favors exchanged over a few decades, but even that was outdone by a neophyte on the national stage in 2008.

At the end of the analysis, Hillary is a peerlessly unlikable character and a poor candidate. Someone in the media whom I cannot recall had a real insight when she said that Hillary becomes much more unlikable when she seeks power. There’s just something in her aspect that telegraphs that she’ll abuse whatever power she acquires, and this gets reinforced by actual events (such as the server/email issue).

* I’m finding Hillary’s remarks ever more mysterious.

It seems she knew that the “deplorable” event was being covered by reporters, and there is a video of it. It may be that the remarks were prepared, though I find that hard to believe — even her god awful campaign staff can’t be that clueless.

And if you see her on video, you just have to be struck by her somnolent, seemingly stoned delivery.

She even moves her lips thirstily like someone on potent drugs.

What the hell is wrong with this woman?

At this point in the campaign, she seems like she’s having some kind of health related meltdown.

She’s what? 68? Whatever this condition is, it’s not going to get better — that we know — it’s only going to get considerably worse. It may be that there’s no “smoking gun” of a particular disease in her case, but how does one attribute this sort of behavior to anything less than some kind of general decline?

One senses that her remarks came out because she just didn’t have the energy to keep her usual filter up.

* Obama’s legacy will be destroyed if Trump wins. Absolute humiliation for him.

* Coalition of the Fringes / Democratic Partisans Message to Trumpkins:

“Shut up.
Stand up and move to the back of the bus for you.
Empty your wallets and pay for all the new passengers who just boarded”

* The single most disgusting thing Hillary said was that these “deplorables” were “irredeemable”.

Who, with an ounce of charity or understanding in her system, would presume to denounce, publicly, such a huge swath of the American people as “irredeemable”?

* Having made some cash betting on Trump winning the primary, I started buying GOP wins Gen Election* shares on predict it when he was at 28, bought more as he fell to 22 after the convention. He is now at 28/29.

(*You can also buy Trump win, but for the unpleasant reasons I do not want to explicate, I think GOP win is a safer).

I think that is about right to a slight underestimate, 538 also has him around 30%. This isn’t Silver’s stupid guess, but his model that weights polls by age, past accuracy, and deviation from other polls and assumes regression to mean of wide leads. He offers two other models called “NowCast” and “PollsOnly” also around 30%.

There are at least five big new unknown factors here that make polls less useful than 2012, 2008, 2004, etc. First, Trump is the least and Hillary is the second least popular presidential nominees in all of polling. What effect on turnout that will have is unknown.

Second, we do not know to what extent people are afraid to say they are voting Trump because it is stigmatized. Brexit was also stigmatized, and the poll averages had it losing by 2 when it won by 4. That 6 point gap should give Trump some hope. However, polls in England have a very long and consistent history of underestimating the right. That is not the case in the United States.

Third, Trump has rejiggered which states are true swings and which are not by performing worse than normal with hispanics and rich whites and better than normal with poor and middle class whites. This is going to be the first election in which Iowa and Michigan votes more Republican than Virginia for example. Indeed, it looks like Iowa may even vote more Trump than North Carolina and be the first modern election where Pennsylvania will vote more Republican than Colorado.

As Steve has noted, this is to Trump’s advantage as Romney lost a large number of white-heavy midwestern states by less than 5%. Trump could do a little better than Romney there, a lot worse elsewhere, lose the popular vote by as much as 1.5%, and still win the election.

Fourth, polling has never shown the Don’t Know/Third Parties bucket so high before, usually above 20%.

Fifth, we have never had a Republican candidate not run a normal ground operation. I’ve long thought Trump was crazy for not doing this. I guess Kellyanne Conway agrees, as she is rushing to set one up. But a proper ground game takes more than 6 weeks to set up. It is obsessed with, 4+ months away from the election at recruiting volunteers and IDing weak supporters and partisans who vote irregularly. Then, closer to the election, sending campaign field staff and volunteers to talk to them in person and on the phone. Finally, it gets them to actually show up.

Throw all of these together, you might take the poll average, add 2 points for Shy Tory effect, add 2 more because third party support is always overstated in polls and Johnson is doing better than Stein, subtract 3 points because Trump lacks a ground game, add 1 point for the Trump electoral college advantage, and I think Trump will likely win if he is polling 2 points behind Hillary or better.

* The most effective cough suppressants (antitussives) are all CNS depressants. They are either opioids like codeine or disassociatives like dextromethorphan.

Used rarely and as directed, for most people the effective dose for cough suppression should not make them feel intoxicated. There are many examples, such as Rush L. and a billion doctors, of people being highly functional while high on opioids. However, if she is taking them every time she’s on camera, or taking extra large doses “to be safe,” and on top of the stress and pressure of the campaign, that could be enough. Also, people all react differently to psychoactive medication.

Dextromethorphan is the most common antitussive ingredient in OTC cough and cold medication. Unlike opioids, it presents low risk of addiction, though it is often abused by teenagers. The mental effects of DXM, however, are more often present at effective antitussive doses, and is most similar to alcohol.

* Campaigns are like big ships, they are hard to change direction.

Two years ago, the Obama strategy (100% blacks, add some hispanics and then a little white on top) was a winning presidential strategy.

(It never worked very well in Congressional/state and local elections).

Turns out that riling up the blacks to get to 99% vote share really ticks off a lot of other people.

Throw in the economy (I don’t want to go into details, but it isn’t where a lot of people would like) and you’ve got a close election.

The real mystery is why even encourage BLM. Just have Michelle+barack hit the train in 2016 summer, targeting black communities. Maybe they will this fall. They just don’t seem — as they have not since 2008 — that they worry about anyone’s election except their own.

* Black self-censorship truly is crazy. It wasn’t always so, though. A hundred and twenty years ago there were plenty of black folks who openly said the Negro race had a long way to go and a lot of race work — civilizational work –to do.

Both Booker T Washington and WEB Dubois were quite blunt about it. Their racial self-criticism was so strong that quoting them nowadays will get you fired (if you are white, anyway).

Back then Negro’s took it seriously. Hell, Negros would lynch fellow Negros for trifling with little black girls, beating their wives, etc. And there were fewer black bastards than there are white bastards now.

Something happened in the last 50-75 years. Somehow it all became the white man’s fault (and his responsibility to fix).

* If their Black tribal loyalty exceeds their civic virtue, they are not our friends and deserve nothing from us.

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WP: Four lessons from the alt-right’s D.C. coming out party

David Weigel writes:

Taylor and Spencer, like many on the alt-right, believe in the relative superiority of different races; social conservatives believe that adherence to traditional Judeo-Christian values would bring about harmony. As the Daily Beast’s Betsy Woodruff prodded Spencer into admitting, the “utopian” alt-right state would include European whites but no Jews.

“Does anyone in this room really think that differences between pygmies, Danes and Australian aborigines are just social constructs?” Taylor asked at one point. “Really? This idea is so stupid that only very intelligent people could believe it.”

…Yet when they got inside the downtown Washington hotel where Spencer, Brimelow and Taylor would speak, reporters could ask whatever they wanted. That was on brand; alt-right figures write and talk constantly and make themselves available to the media. They also seem totally uninterested in dissembling — the more shocking and blunt the answer, the better…

The alt-right doesn’t have a political strategy yet. The Friday news conference was loose, with no real agenda apart from clearing up who represented the alt-right (no one person, said Spencer) and what the alt-right believes. Highly aware of their toxicity, the alt-right’s leaders support Donald Trump but admit that his attitude and elevation of the issues of race and immigration are more important — in the short term — than what he says from week to week. The closest thing to a political ground game on the alt-right has come in the form of clumsy robo-calls from California’s William Johnson…

The alt-right isn’t into American exceptionalism. At the Values Voter Summit, this year and every year, politicos and activists hark back to the founding faith of America’s revolutionaries. Hardly an hour can go by without a nod to John Winthrop’s “city upon on a hill” quote, as handed down (and slightly altered) by Ronald Reagan.

For the alt-right, America is more at risk because it is less providential. “We question America’s founding myth,” Spencer explained. “If you look at the Declaration of Independence, it’s not just the notion of ‘all men are created equal’ that I would object to. It’s also this notion that states come into being as entities for people to defend their inalienable rights. I find that to be total hokum, nonsense. That’s not how any state, including the United States, came into being.”

Brimelow used his briefer remarks to speculate about a balkanized American future, where some states — led by the Pacific Northwest — would declare the experiment over. “I think it will break up,” he said. “In some ways, that’s the best we can hope for.”

…Downtown, the alt-right troika praised Trump not because he was adopting new beliefs, but because he had found and defeated the right enemies.

“I don’t think our support of Trump is about policy, at the end of the day — it’s about style,” Spencer said. “We live in a fragmented, decaying society. We live in a society of moral degeneracy. We’re going to fight our way out it, and sometimes that means using the tools at hand. It’s going to mean unleashing a little chaos.”

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The Alt-Right Wants To Professionalize

Rosie Gray writes: “We’ve got to have professional organizations, professional people doing it, we’ve got to amp up what we’re already doing,” said Richard Spencer, a white nationalist leader.

…The press conference was billed as an explainer of the alt-right, but it was also focused on where the three men see things developing in the future, both politically and on a grander philosophical level. Brimelow sees the country breaking up geographically into different sections, while Spencer envisions a white ethno-state. But the matter of more immediate concern is still Trump’s campaign, which while not a perfect vessel for the alt-right is as close as anything has come, culminating in Trump’s hiring former Breitbart News chairman Steve Bannon, who has described Breitbart as “platform for the alt-right.” Alt-right members sneer not just at the left but also at movement conservatives, viewing them as relics who sold out on the issue that matters most: race. Brimelow dismissed National Review, for example, as a “cuckservative operation.”

“Certainly we have been you could say riding his coattails,” Spencer said of Trump. He acknowledged the alt-right’s differences of opinion with Trump on policy but downplayed the importance of policies at all; “it’s about him,” Spencer said. “And it’s about in a way projecting onto him our hopes and dreams.”

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Alt-Right Leaders: We Aren’t Racist, We Just Hate Jews

Non-Jews can’t move to Israel and become citizens with the same ease that Jews can. Does that mean Jews hate non-Jews? So why if gentiles want to create their own states without Jews, that means they hate Jews?

Daily Beast:

The Alt-Right needs to aspire to something, even if that dream won’t come true in his lifetime—and that means they should aim to build an ethno-state for just whites. And Spencer made it clear that white-only means Jews aren’t invited. They have their own identity, and it isn’t white-slash-European, and that’s that…

So the Alt-Right—helmed by the trio who gathered at The Willard on Friday—is the most extreme example of a shift on the American right: away from a nostalgic conservative focus on restoring the values of the Founders, and towards a forward-focused nationalism that prioritizes drastic limits on immigration and open hostility to globalism. Trump isn’t a white nationalist. But he speaks their language. And they dig it.

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The Cost Of Illegal Immigration

Seth Barron, City Journal, September 2, 2016

In his immigration speech Wednesday night, Donald Trump threatened to cut off aid to cities that offer “sanctuary” to illegal immigrants. New York, like a number of other American cities, makes a strict point of not asking people about their immigration status when they interact with police, librarians, social-service providers, or other city officials. This system, it is said, promotes public safety by encouraging illegal aliens to report crimes, and enhances the economic life of the city. Estimates vary as to how many New Yorkers are here in violation of federal immigration law, but the number is at least 500,000 and could be as high as 800,000. The city’s political establishment argues continually that these immigrants are an unalloyed benefit to New York. But leaving aside the sentimental rhetoric about hard work and family values, actual facts about the costs and benefits of illegal immigration are hard to come by—since no one is allowed to inquire about immigration status. In an era of Compstat 2.0 and Big Data, statistics on the crime rate among illegal aliens are nonexistent, for example. New York’s sanctuary policy makes it difficult to break out the costs of harboring hundreds of thousands of unauthorized residents.

{snip}

In a similar vein, city council speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito commissioned her finance division to weigh the economic impact on New York City if unlawful residents departed. Citing the liberal Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the analysis concludes that illegal immigrants pay $793 million in state and city taxes. However, the source data reveal that approximately 90 percent of that sum consists of sales and excise taxes, along with a backed-out estimate of the portion of rent that represents property tax.

{snip}

Local politicians get angry every September, when public schools are unexpectedly operating at 150 percent capacity. They demand to know why the School Construction Authority didn’t plan ahead for population surges that are impossible to predict based on current demographic data. Roomy Victorian mansions in Dyker Heights or Douglaston are suddenly discovered to house 30 people in illegally subdivided units, with substandard electrical connections, dozens of trash bags on garbage day, and no means of egress in case of fire. Leaders then fulminate about gentrification and luxury developments in Manhattan.

One effective metric for understanding the costs of illegal immigration is health care. Because Medicaid is funded partially by the federal government, it is limited to U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents. But the city’s Health + Hospitals Corporation, which runs New York’s massive public health infrastructure, takes it as its mission to provide care to anyone who needs it, without regard for immigration status. This policy is a major reason why HHC is on constant verge of financial collapse. During the last fiscal year, HHC needed an emergency allocation of $337 million from the city just to keep its doors open, and the prognosis for the future is even worse. At an April press conference, Dr. Raj Ramu, president of HHC, said that caring for illegals consumes about one-third of his $7.6 billion annual budget. Rounding down, that means that $2.5 billion—of which the city is picking up an increasingly large chunk every year, as state and federal aid dries up—goes toward providing health care to illegal aliens in New York.

In a city budget of $82.2 billion, that $2.5 billion represents a significant piece of the pie. Mayor de Blasio says that New Yorkers are happy to shoulder the cost of caring for their unlawfully resident neighbors, and maybe they are. But until we’re allowed to determine the real numbers and make a meaningful accounting of the costs and benefits, all we have to go on are sentiment and hollow rhetoric.

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The Alt Right Has Its Coming Out Party

Wow, there’s nothing snide in this article!

Tucker Carlson seems the most woke of all conservative journalists.

Daily Caller: This of course brings up accusations of white supremacy. However, all three men object to this description. When asked about this label, Brimelow pointed to race and IQ studies which show “whites are not the superior race” and it is instead East Asians. He then joked that he must then be a “yellow supremacist.”

The alt right leaders also received many questions related to whether they are anti-semites. Taylor and Spencer disagreed here, but both said that Jews could be part of the Alt Right. Taylor said he considers European Jews to be European and Spencer said that Jews are a distinct people.

The movement has been described frequently as relating to conservatism but those present at the meetings objected to this characterization. Spencer said the “origin of the alt right is really a revolt against conservatism as we know it.” He spoke about “cuckservatives,” and defined them as “defending institutions for other people.”

Clinton spoke about the alt right in connection with Donald Trump. However, Spencer doesn’t think Trump is alt right — just that he is “high energy” and what they want in a leader. He agrees mostly with Trump’s immigration policy, but would want tighter legal immigration that prefers Europeans.

The movement has no strict leadership or orthodoxy and Spencer said that he is opposed to specific policy proposals. He instead prefers “meta-politics.” He has a vision for a white ethno-state, but this is a utopia he sees occurring far into the future. Spencer said having a utopia-like vision is positive and better than the “negativity” of mainstream conservatives that just seeks to oppose liberal policies.

Taylor’s goal for the alt right is possibly more realistic. He envisioned a PTA meeting where people are discussing the lack of black students in AP classes, and a mother stands up and mentions race’s influence on intellect.

Before either of these goals are achieved, Spencer wants the alt right to professionalize like other political movements. When asked about where they will get money for this, Spencer joked and said, “Vlad,” in reference to Vladimir Putin.

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Alt-Right Movement Presents Its Vision for an All-White Society With Trump Paving the Way

Mother Jones: Spencer explained that he likes Trump’s immigration policy, which not only calls for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants but also reduces legal immigration into the country. (Spencer’s ideal policy would also favor immigrants from Europe.) But as Spencer put it, it’s Trump’s more intangible qualities that make him a hero of the alt-right. To Spencer, Trump’s brash style suggests a white savoir, unwilling to be bullied by the politically correct crowd.

“I don’t think our support of Trump is really about policy at the end of the day,” Spencer said. “I think it’s really about Trump’s style, the fact that he doesn’t back down, the fact that he’s willing to confront his enemies…You look at that and you think, this is what a leader looks like.”

Spencer continued, “It really is about him and it’s about, in a way, projecting onto him our hopes and dreams. There’s something called ‘me magic,’ and that is a self-fulfilling prophecy…We want to make Trump; we want to imagine him in our image. And that is maybe—you can see that in a meme of Trump as a Napoleon or Trump as some figure out of the Dune novels in an arcade of the future in a robotic suit of armor fighting enemies. All of that stuff is silly, all of that stuff is ridiculous, but it actually gets at something real and that is that we want something more, we want something heroic, we want something that is not defined by liberalism or individual rights or bourgeois norms. We want something that is truly European and truly heroic.”

For this description, Spencer was greeted with much applause by his fans in the room. He elaborated that rather than a multicultural America, his ideal is a white empire. He described his “dream…ethno-state” as “a homeland for all Europeans,” which would take an “imperial form.”

“It’s very similar to the idea of Zionism for Jews in the 19th century,” he said. “It’s actually very similar to the ideal of communism for the left in the 19th century. It’s not here, it’s in the future, we should dream about it.”

What would this utopia look like? Spencer said it’s too far off to get into specifics. But he and Taylor, whose role at Friday’s event was to give academic assurances that the races of the world are not equal, disagreed on whether Jews would be welcomed into the white utopia homeland. Spencer took the position that they were not “European” and therefore would take their place in their own ethno-state. Taylor countered, “I don’t think that if a Jewish person identifies with the West and with Europe than that’s something that we should deny.” As Spencer acknowledged, the alt-right has yet to sort out these mere details.

But Spencer did offer up a vision of an alt-right society. “If the alt-right were in power, we would all have arrived here via magnetic levitation trains,” he said. “We would have passed by great forests and beautiful images of blond women in a wheat field with their hands, running them through the wheat.” The audience tittered. “It would be a wonderful sight.”

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The Alt Right Eyes Its Future And Preps To Professionalize Post-Trump

From TPM: In a cramped, carpeted ballroom at the Willard Hotel in downtown Washington, the rebranded “alt right” movement took a victory lap Friday and looked optimistically toward their future as a growing movement in the United States.

The press conference included all the same alt right notes that have become the centerpiece of the movement. There were discussions about an “ethnostate” and how to build one and debates about whether Jewish people could rightly identify themselves as European. One participant waxed poetic on why he is tired of being called a white supremacist in the media, and another predicted that the United States “will break up” over its divisions.

After years in relative obscurity in chatrooms and anonymous forums online, the disjointed alt right movement, closely aligned with the white nationalist movement, is experiencing a bit of a renaissance at the moment. In Europe, a backlash against a refugee crisis has resulted in Brexit. And in the United States, at the top of a major party ticket, the alt right finally has a Republican candidate in Donald Trump it can rally around.

“It is in a way projecting on to him our hopes and dreams,” said prominent movement leader Richard Spencer, a man who has said before he dreams of a white ethnostate. “We have not been made by Trump, but we want to make Trump and we want to imagine him in our image.”

The alt right claims to have no leader, no spokesman, no formal organization. But in front of dozens of sympathizers and reporters, leading figures Spencer, Peter Brimelow and Jared Taylor outlined their own vision for the future of their movement and their most high-profile political spokesman yet, Trump…

Trump, Spencer argued, “seems to be willing to go there. He seems to be willing to confront people” even if the alt right readily admits Trump is far from the optimal candidate.

“Donald Trump is not alt right in the sense of his ideas. He is not really alt right in terms of his policies,” Spencer said, nothing that his movement grew increasingly worried earlier this summer that Trump was backing way from his hard-right policies toward immigrants.

“We cannot be a Trump cheerleading squad,” Spencer said about the movement’s future, ruminating on the possibilities that the movement may even have to serve as a chief critic of Trump if he is elected and proves to be disappointing.

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The Alt-Right Is An Instinctive Reaction

The left-wing point of view is also instinctive and biological and rooted in imprinting.

Genes and imprinting and geography and culture create our decisions (and free will if you believe in that).

I think people on the right have a stronger fight and flight reflex, have a stronger disgust reflex while people on the left are more at ease with diversity and shocking images.

When I feel a group is a threat to my group, I have a strong reaction to that threat. I know how much I hate those who threaten the existence and tranquility of people I love, so I am not dismayed when members of other groups have a strong reaction against those who threaten them.

The Alt-Right seems to me to be another instinctive biological reaction. I think all of the major political views are primarily rooted in biology and imprinting. Exposition of these reactions can be eloquent, but these expositions are always rationalizations of primal feelings.

The pre-frontal cortex can temper one’s instinctive reactions to make them more socially acceptable. I suspect that most people are a lot more racist and bigoted and intolerant than they will allow themselves to seem in public in America.

I believe most Israelis wish that Palestinians would disappear. I am sure most Arabs and Muslims wish that the Jewish state would disappear and probably all of its Jewish residents as well. It is normal for people to wish that their enemies would disappear, but most of are more diplomatic than to say so in public. So when Alt-Righters may say Jews are “oven-worthy,” I don’t think they are expressing any sentiment that is unique to Nazis. I think it is a universal human sentiment to wish to be rid of your enemies. Members of the Alt Right tend to be self-destructive and anti-social so they say the quiet part out loud.

In Judaism, I see how violent are the feelings between different types of Jews. The more Orthodox Jews and non-Orthodox Jews interact, I suspect, the more they dislike each other. Jewish history is filled with examples of Jewish civil wars. Wanting to destroy your enemies is not unique to Nazis or to Arabs or to Muslims but the relish one says such shocking things out loud usually reveals something about your socialization and your standing.

Marginalized politics attract marginalized people, meaning people with little to lose, meaning people who haven’t built anything or connected to anyone. These are dangerous people, usually most dangerous to themselves.

Someone who joins the Alt Right likely feels like he has nothing to lose, which is not the sign of a thriving life.

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Nationalism and the Future of Western Freedom

Yoram Hazony writes:

For centuries, the politics of Western nations have been characterized by a struggle between two antithetical visions of world order: an order of free and independent nations, each pursuing the political good in accordance with its own traditions and understanding; and an order of peoples united under a single regime of law, promulgated and maintained by a single supra-national authority. The first vision is today most clearly represented by nations like India, Israel, Japan, Norway, South Korea, and Switzerland—and now by Britain, perhaps to be followed by others. The second vision is held by much of the leadership of the European Union, which affirmed its commitment to the concept of an “ever closer union” of peoples in the Stuttgart Declaration of 1981 and has proceeded since then to introduce EU laws and currency into most member nations, as well as requiring the free movement of populations among most member states.

The conflict between these two visions is as old as the West itself. The idea that the political order should be based on independent nations was an important feature of ancient Israelite thought as reflected in the Hebrew Bible (or “Old Testament”). And although Western civilization, for most of its history, has been dominated by dreams of universal empire, the presence of the Bible at the heart of this civilization has ensured that the idea of the self-determining, independent nation would be revived time and again.

Why is the Hebrew Bible so concerned with the independence of nations? The world of Israel’s prophets was dominated by a succession of imperial powers: Egypt, Babylonia, Assyria, and Persia, each giving way to the next. Despite their differences, each of these empires sought to impose a universal political order on mankind as a whole, the gods having sent them to suppress needless disputes among peoples and to create a unified international realm in which men could live together in peace and prosperity. “None hungered in my years or thirsted in them,” the Pharaoh Amenemhet I wrote a few centuries before Abraham. “Men dwelled in peace through that which I wrought.” And this was no idle boast. By ending warfare in vast regions and harnessing their populations to productive agricultural work, imperial powers were in fact able to bring to millions a relatively reliable peace and an end to the threat of starvation.

No wonder then that the imperial rulers of the ancient world saw it as their task, in the words of the Babylonian king Hamurabi, to “bring the four quarters of the world to obedience.” That obedience, after all, was what ensured salvation from war, disease, and starvation.

And yet, despite the obvious economic advantages of an Egyptian or Babylonian peace that would unify humanity, the Bible was born out of a deep-seated opposition to that very aim. To Israel’s prophets, Egypt was “the house of bondage,” and they spared no words in deploring the bloodshed and cruelty involved in imperial conquest and the imperial manner of governing, its recourse to slavery and murder and its expropriation of women and property. All of this, the Israelite prophets argued, stemmed from Egypt’s idolatry—from its submission to gods who would justify any sacrifice so long as it advanced the extension of the imperial realm of peace and kept the production of grain running at maximum capacity.

Was there a viable alternative to universal empire? The ancient Near East had much experience with localized political power in the form of city-states. But these were helpless before imperial armies and the ideology of universal empire that motivated them. It is in the Hebrew Bible that we find the first sustained presentation of a different possibility: a political order based on the independence of a nation living within limited borders alongside other independent nations.

By “nation,” I mean a people or group of peoples that are united—or that are capable of being united—around a shared history, language, or religion, permitting them to act effectively as a body for the common defense and other large-scale enterprises. The Bible systematically promotes the idea that members of a nation (Hebrew, goy) should regard one another as “brothers,” and the Mosaic law directs all Israelites to join in establishing what would today be called a national state. The king of such a state would be drawn “from among your brothers.” Its prophets, too, would be “from among you, from among your brothers.” And so would its priests, appointed to guard the traditional laws of the nation and teach them to the king “so that his thoughts not be lifted above his brothers.” Moreover, Moses sets boundaries for Israel, instructing his people to keep their hands off of the lands of neighboring kingdoms like Moav, Edom, and Ammon, which deserve their own independence. As he tells them in God’s name:

Take good heed of yourselves therefore. Meddle not with [the children of Esau], for I will not give you of their land. No, not so much as a foot’s breadth. Because I have given Mt. Seir to Esau for a possession. . . . Do not harass Moav, nor contend with them in battle, for I will not give you of their land for a possession, because I have given Ar to the children of Lot for a possession. . . . And when you come near, opposite the children of Ammon, harass them not, nor contend with them, for I will not give you of the land of the children of Ammon any possession, for I have given it to the children of Lot for a possession.

Nor are these passages unique. Throughout the Hebrew Bible, we find that the political aspiration of the prophets of Israel is not empire but a free nation living in justice and peace amid other free nations.

The Bible thus puts a new political conception on the table: a state of a single people that is united, self-governing, and uninterested in bringing its neighbors under its own rule. This state is governed not by foreigners responsible to a ruler in a distant land but by kings and governors, priests and prophets, drawn from the ranks of the nation itself: elites that are, for just this reason, thought to be better able to stay in touch with the needs of their own people, their “brothers,” especially the less fortunate among them.

In addition, because the Israelite king is merely one of the people, and not the representative of some abstract universal ambition, his powers can be circumscribed to prevent abuse. Unlike the kings of Egypt or Babylonia, the Israelite king under the Mosaic constitution is not empowered to make the laws, which are the heritage of his nation and not subject to his whim. Nor does he have the power to appoint the priesthood, thereby making law and religion subservient to him. In the same way, the Mosaic law limits the king’s right to tax and enslave the people, just as the limitations on Israel’s borders prevent the king from embracing the dream of universal conquest.

It is important to notice that the Israelites’ conception of the nation has nothing to do with biology, or what we call race. For biblical nations, everything depends on a shared understanding of history, language, and religion that is passed from parents to children, but which outsiders can join as well. Thus the book of Exodus teaches that there were many Egyptians who attached themselves to the Hebrew slaves in fleeing Egypt, and that they received the Ten Commandments (more accurately translated as the “Ten Precepts”) at Sinai with the rest of Israel. Similarly, Moses invites the Midianite sheikh Jethro to join the Jewish people. And Ruth the Moabite becomes part of Israel by declaring “your people will be my people and your God will be my God”—her son being the forefather of King David himself.

But the ability of Israel to bring foreign-born individuals into its ranks always depends on these individuals’ willingness to accept Israel’s God, its view of history, and its laws. Without embracing these elements of the national identity, foreigners will not be able to contribute to Israel’s cohesion and strength in times of hardship. They will not be part of the Israelite nation.

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